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plotspot
800 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:07 batsnacks wrote: Not that we have any way of verifying but it might be cool for you to paraphrase what you and breshke were talking about. I second that question, Tictock. Can you tell us whether you guys expected that Breshke would be killed on N2 for example, and whether such a kill could lead us to anyone? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Anything in particular? We had an almost 200 msg QT. Near EoN we both agreed he was likely the Night kill, so he left a bit of his legacy thoughts in there. He made some great points as to why you were likely town + Show Spoiler + through a similar line of thinking to why I'm suggesting Sul could be town Bre's point about Bats being very likely Town was that Bats supported and is reading Town pretty hard in SL. Again, scum needs mislynches at this point in the game. So by townreading SL you've made it harder to push him as a potential target without some grandiose flip of that read. By eliminating someone who is good mislynch material we can deduce you are very likely town. Also Bre helped me understand why SL was likely not a role. When I was tunneling him SL did in fact give up a bit and claim VT. If he was a role it seems very unlikely he would have done this. Linking that back to Bats being town, if Bats were scum he would know that SL is not a role from this and would be that much more likely to try and use him as a mislynch later. That was the heavier stuff we talked about last night phase. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
27nb Sul Bara Plots Not 100% town, but very likely town, again in rough order Bats BF Dis SL This was obviusly before Bara said he got RB's and before | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
He said "Your not going to get much info tomorrow since everyone will pile 27nb" Today has actually been one of the most interesting days IMO | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:26 Tictock wrote: Bre was 100% wrong about one thing though... He said "Your not going to get much info tomorrow since everyone will pile 27nb" Today has actually been one of the most interesting days IMO I was going to ask why he didn't bother to claim especially if he thought he would be the kill but this might explain it. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
This was all me paraphrasing. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:11 Tictock wrote: I'm a little on the fence about BF's rapid fire posting on page 83. There is a lot of stuff being said but I'm not sure how many real points of deeper thought I can see, it's more like hes just reacting. That's NAI, I'm just having a hard time reading through it kus it's a bit all over the place. @ BF You mention you brought up questions you wanted answered. I feel like i lost them in your like 20 post spam. Can you restate please? I also want to remind you that while i for a moment considered you and plots as potential scum team, I dismissed it the next post. It was only based on what plots has said, and if he is scum it could have been a move to push you into the limelight after he gets lynched. I'd also like you to critically look at the 3 claims made today, you've been wanting to do roles stuff for the past few phases, now is your chance. Look through each claim and tell me what makes you think the claim could be legit and what could not be legit. If you need to get more info to reach a conclusion, now is the time to ask. Questions: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652 Regarding the reminder: I'm still riding the bunnies/disinformation/plotspots train. I won't get off that train easily. Regarding the three claims: mason claim feels genuine and true, no logical flaws, everything's fine. Cop claim makes sense, too. Good calls, not liking the scum read on Sulfuras but hey that's how it is. The town checks on bunnies and barakos are confusing but would be easily explained with a GF. Can't see a scum lean in Barakos, that would leave it to bunnies. The Plotspots claim is weak because Barakos revealed that he was blocked before plots revealed his role. Then, plots went full yolo. So: strong claim on mason (which I support), okay(tendence to strong) claim on cop, weak claim on RB. I note by now that a lurky tactic is far better then really explaining what you are thinking. Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
We didnt see a reason to claim, both of us were being heavily townread. In fact he suggested I prob should hold off claiming, but was my call. I did try and hold it off, but clearly town needs reassurances today. Bre stopped being careful about revealing our role after N1, and he's generally very awkward and unsure of how to approach me in game. If you notice he rarely tried to interact with me and just gives unreasoned town reads on me. I was trying to react to him more naturally, in fact this post On May 25 2015 18:00 Tictock wrote: @Bre She's fallen off my radar since EoD. Why aren't you back on this scott wagon? Was kinda a fabrication on my part, I thought he should be hard pushing for my opinions on 27nb and wanted things to look more natural between us. At this point I see why he wanted to leave a more obvious trail between us. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Thanks for your thoughts and reposting your questions. I'm around for a bit longer, but then i need to get some RL stuff done. Anything for me before I go? ^This is to everyone | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote: Questions: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1642 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1654 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/485267-newbie-student-mafia-x?page=83#1652 First question was alreay answered by me here: On May 29 2015 02:06 disformation wrote: In your case you can totally take yourself out and leave me in the pool.  Was trying to imply that with "I take myself out (since I know I'm town)". Should have been more clear. "Even if there" at the time I was highly doubting the existence of a GF. Currently very unsure. Likely to drop the role speculation stuff altogether and return to look at who looks really scummy and so on, since I feel all the role speculation stuff will lead into a trap. On May 29 2015 07:33 boxerfred wrote: [...]Dis, bunnies, barakos and sulf do a great job with that thus far. Thanks.  | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:39 Tictock wrote: @ BF Thanks for your thoughts and reposting your questions. I'm around for a bit longer, but then i need to get some RL stuff done. Anything for me before I go? ^This is to everyone I'd like to know about your scum calls by now. Since you're a confirmed town (for me), they weigh a lot. I'd especially like to hear about what you think about my reads of Dis/bunnies/plots. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:39 disformation wrote: First question was alreay answered by me here: Thanks. Regarding this, I still don't get why you say "there's possibly a BF" but at the same time say "bunnies is green". Might just be an implication of "well green-reads can be gf" or a huge blunder from a scum member However, this is it for today, good night! | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
27nb has still not done much of real value, and has not added much to the discussion today. She was willing to say that GF was a possibility and that Cop checks cant be 100%. That's about the only thing giving me pause atm, but I could see that coming from either alignment as it's an easy thing to state. My stance on plots is that he is Mafia RB trying to hide as Town RB. It's a bold move though, so it should be looked at critically. But when I do that his claim falls apart, him RBing Bara makes 0 sense as you can tell he hasn't liked me very much since I've been pressuring him so hard yet is fairly null about Bara. Who in their right mind as RB would not block Me if they felt as plots seems to N2? Not only that but his entire filter is his graphics and reads D1 and his whole OMGUS thing with me. I tried to give him a pass as misguided town but his persistence to fill the thread with nonsense along with the fact that I've pointed out he's pushing bad town logic (maybe you don't agree it's as strong as I think it is) tells me he is scum. I've given my reasons why I've been townreading Dis the whole game multiple times. He has shown clear and critical thinking, has been willing to admit he's wrong, doesn't deflect questions, pushes his own ideas... etc etc. I don't feel like restating my read on him, you can find it in my filter. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
You really need to weigh in more critically man. Your skimming the issues here today which is making you fall into very likely scum territory. I did you a favor in looking through your filter and pointing out at least one decent reason why you are not the most likely scum. It's time that you give town your all and tell us what you think. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:42 boxerfred wrote: Regarding this, I still don't get why you say "there's possibly a BF" but at the same time say "bunnies is green". Might just be an implication of "well green-reads can be gf" or a huge blunder from a scum member However, this is it for today, good night! Okay, last post for today, too. I will try to walk you through this with every little step. 1) assume the claims are all valid 2) assume there is no GF or the GF wasn't checked 3) look at the people left 4) count them 5) result was 5 (with the 2nd mason claim this would be 4 now), therefore 2/5 would be mafia if 1) and 2) are true 6) assuming 1) and 2) + you take yourself and the 2nd mason: we would have a 66% chance to hit scum if we randomly lynch one of the 3 remaining people 7) assuming 1) is true and 2) is not true, the % is lower (33), but there is bound to be only 1 GF. where has anything of this anything to do with bunnies? This is also why I meant that this game could be solved with logic. But later I unsure if I using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic. I hope you can understand my thought process now. Random rant: Why are so many people looking scummy this game? At least like three persons are making this game harder for town, I feel. =/ outgoing things town should consider for D3:
I hope to see some real cases trying to answer these questions tomorrow. Otherwise I will have to do that and my reads are crap this game. :p | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
"But later I unsure if I using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic." should read: But later I got unsure if using assumptions 1) and 2) are a good idea for town, because if one of the claims is false, we will lose using this logic. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Looking through Bats filter, I can see pretty clear reasons why he would check Bara N1. Bara was pushing back on Bats for his Iching thing and Bats was thinking "Why do you care so much to read into my opening BS more than others?" I'm never seeing Bats leave anything to suggest Bara returned green on his check, unlees I'm missing something in the 2nd quote I'm leaving here. These were the more interesting posts from Bats on Bara, first is from before D2 and the 2nd quote is from N2. On May 23 2015 20:52 batsnacks wrote: Like baraka if you're mafia you are walking straight into something that can get you lynched. If you're town you are wasting your time because not only are your conclusions about me provably wrong, I will never get lynched today. On May 27 2015 07:29 batsnacks wrote: I wish this were a themed game so I could troll you all with my ##Dragon Emperor Soaring Destruction: Barakos Obv checking 27nb makes sense given how EoD went down. There is nothing to make me 100% believe Bats claim, but it does all add up. Anyone have anything more/better? | ||
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plotspot
800 Posts
On May 29 2015 07:52 Tictock wrote: @ BF 27nb has still not done much of real value, and has not added much to the discussion today. She was willing to say that GF was a possibility and that Cop checks cant be 100%. That's about the only thing giving me pause atm, but I could see that coming from either alignment as it's an easy thing to state. My stance on plots is that he is Mafia RB trying to hide as Town RB. It's a bold move though, so it should be looked at critically. But when I do that his claim falls apart, him RBing Bara makes 0 sense as you can tell he hasn't liked me very much since I've been pressuring him so hard yet is fairly null about Bara. Who in their right mind as RB would not block Me if they felt as plots seems to N2? Not only that but his entire filter is his graphics and reads D1 and his whole OMGUS thing with me. I tried to give him a pass as misguided town but his persistence to fill the thread with nonsense along with the fact that I've pointed out he's pushing bad town logic (maybe you don't agree it's as strong as I think it is) tells me he is scum. I've given my reasons why I've been townreading Dis the whole game multiple times. He has shown clear and critical thinking, has been willing to admit he's wrong, doesn't deflect questions, pushes his own ideas... etc etc. I don't feel like restating my read on him, you can find it in my filter. Let's see if I can be logically Mafia RB. After Scott died, and I would be the second Mafia RB, I blocked Rels she is killed at the same time, then I claim at N2 that someone has RB me. Would I as mafia really do something like this If I didn't know whether town does not have a RB themselves? Let's see. I don't think my remaining Mafia partner would approve. First of all we are down 2 men. If we had 2 Mafia RBs then town is very likely to have at least one, or am I wrong? Someone with more experience with setup could clarify this? We can agree that we only have one RB right? otherwise by now there would already be at least 3 people who claimed being roleblocked and the the real Town RB claiming. But that's not the case. So we only have one more RB (Scott Mafia RB is already dead). If that RB is Mafia what else does town have? Again I'm not familiar with possible setups but is something like like Mafia RB 2x, Goon/Godfather possible when town only has 2 Masons and 1 Cop? Ok let's just say this was the case, at that time when Breshke was killed, wouldn't that mean I'd not better RB the kill target like scum usually does, so how does Barakos get to be the target? This is like implying Barakos is scum coming out pretending to have been the target. That's kind of a stretch isn't it? We then already know that Barakos is the GF because he was already copchecked by bats. Looking at this do you still think I am Mafia RB? only possible if Barakos is GF. Would I as mafia point it out like this, or would I'd rather hide it? The most plausible thing is that I'm am Town RB, not Mafia RB neither in case that town had also a Town RB as well as do not have a Town RB? Did I not consider anything? | ||
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plotspot
800 Posts
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