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Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 88

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Barakos
Profile Joined February 2012
Germany358 Posts
May 29 2015 11:43 GMT
#1741
Without any role-stuff I would still be onto sl/disfo, but that's not going to happen today... it's complete bs, to argue about what would happen without roles, when there are roles... you can argue, if they are valid claims or not, but pretending they don't exist and not using this information to your advantage is bad townplay... you need to use everything there is...

i am willing to speculate with you about fake-claims and stuff, because that is the reality the game takes place in, but to speculate, what would be without all the claims is just shutting your eyes and ignoring the major things that happend in the past 30 hours.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 11:45 GMT
#1742
Ok. well then why are you clearing SL and Dis on Role stuff? They weren't checked or anything
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 11:47 GMT
#1743
I'm not really trying to say "ignore roles".

Just Think outside them as well.
I can take that responsibility.
Barakos
Profile Joined February 2012
Germany358 Posts
May 29 2015 11:47 GMT
#1744
I am not clearing them, but our claimed cop is onto sulfurus so why not do the same? I could of course waste a vote on sl again like last time but I got someone I can sheep atm.

And I am sheeping our claimed cop and not the confirmed mason, because the confirmed mason wasn't making sense with his vote. :p
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 11:48 GMT
#1745
Ah ok, then I'd rather talk to Bats.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 11:50 GMT
#1746
On May 29 2015 06:28 batsnacks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 06:17 plotspot wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:11 disformation wrote:
On May 29 2015 06:07 plotspot wrote:
Right I have no experience with it. If you think it's unusual, let's ask cakepie after the game why that is, do you agree?


That is basically my whole problem. The setup IS unusual no matter how I think about it. And if you or batsnacks are lying this stance might make town lose.


Are you sure you have checked all the possibilities (also from the side of mafia) and came to the conclusion that it is unusual? No one is lying we are simply unclaimed blue roles, that's all there is to it. We should avoid talking about, it can only benefit mafia considering CClaiming.


I would tell you this as either alignment:

4 blues in this setup is unusual.

Meaning it wouldn't be terrible for you to be at least slightly suspicious of my claim. I think tiktok is objectively the most likely to be telling the truth. If you don't understand why you can ask.

We should definitely -not- avoid talking about it. Mafia is never going to cc anything for the rest of the game it would be suicide at this point. If you don't understand why you can ask.

Here is every possibility:
  • plots is lying. The blue roles are mason-mason-cop.
  • batsnacks is lying. The blue roles are mason-mason-roleblocker
  • plots and batsnacks are lying. The blue roles are mason-mason.
  • plots and batsnacks are telling to truth. The blue roles are mason-mason-roleblocker-cop.

Assume anyone lying is mafia. Nothing else is possible.


Least I know Bats encourages thought.
I can take that responsibility.
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
May 29 2015 11:56 GMT
#1747
I'm gonna vote bunnies in breshke's honor if she afks again. I think the green check adds to her town equity but she said to hold her accountable for what she says she'll do so I'm going to do that.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 12:12 GMT
#1748
On May 29 2015 20:47 Tictock wrote:
I'm not really trying to say "ignore roles".

Just Think outside them as well.


That is a very good idea. Basically saying: "Let us look at ALL people and lynch the scummiest." Might also lead us to the discovery if and who might be fakeclaiming here.
Was trying that for a bit yesterday, but wasn't able to go through all people with that because I started to get pretty tired/fatigued.

Sulfurus has the huge problem, that after D1 he really started to fall off and there is not much to go on. Which is in my mind a scum strategy... the best post from him D2 was his poe list which had a ton of people (keeping options open) and by now a lot of that list turned out to be town. So I can easily see why a lot of people think he is scum.

On May 29 2015 20:56 batsnacks wrote:
I'm gonna vote bunnies in breshke's honor if she afks again. I think the green check adds to her town equity but she said to hold her accountable for what she says she'll do so I'm going to do that.


I really hope she does something amazing this time.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 12:43 GMT
#1749
Rereading what Bara posted earlier.

On May 29 2015 20:14 Barakos wrote:
Why are you working so hard on not lynching sulfurus?

Lynching plots would mean, lynching an confirmed rb on the off chance, there are 2 scum-rbs vs a single town-cop... sounds not convincing.
Lynching bunnies means lynching into a green-check on the 1/6-chance that there is a godfather between all the claimed vt and bunnies is the gf
Lynching sulfurus is a 2/4 scum, if you believe both greenchecks, 1/4 if you believe one of bunnies/me is the gf.





He's pretty convinced that 2 RB on scum side is a unbelievable setup. He's also just willing to just sheep bats without telling us why he doesn't focus on his real scum reads.

This is interesting to me since the RB claim he made is his biggest reason for being Townread atm. Thus plots being Town RB is his only major lag to stand on for town cred here.

Also reminds me of this point which I didn't believe before, but now I'm reconsidering.

On May 29 2015 11:38 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 08:45 plotspot wrote:
Ok let's just say this was the case, at that time when Breshke was killed, wouldn't that mean I'd not better RB the kill target like scum usually does, so how does Barakos get to be the target? This is like implying Barakos is scum coming out pretending to have been the target. That's kind of a stretch isn't it? We then already know that Barakos is the GF because he was already copchecked by bats.
Looking at this do you still think I am Mafia RB? only possible if Barakos is GF. Would I as mafia point it out like this, or would I'd rather hide it?
The most plausible thing is that I'm am Town RB, not Mafia RB neither in case that town had also a Town RB as well as do not have a Town RB? Did I not consider anything?



@ Plots
First the bolded question is one that I already posed to you, and is still one that you as Town RB need to answer in depth. Why did you think Bara was scum and block him? You've posted town or null reads on him before and after N2, so what did he do to make you think you had better block him?

You also seem to suggest that Bara is potentially the GF here. Is that what you were thinking? You didn't like the green check on Bara so you figuered he was the Mafia GF and blocked him?



Someone tell me if I'm getting too WIFOM here.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 12:48 GMT
#1750
Like that would suggest That the whole notion of a RB here is false.

Is Cop + Masons vs RB, Goon, GF that wierd?
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 12:52 GMT
#1751
Last thought before I go away.

Nobody claimed RB until N2.

This was well after I started an unhealthy discussion regarding setup speculation.
I can take that responsibility.
Barakos
Profile Joined February 2012
Germany358 Posts
May 29 2015 13:06 GMT
#1752
That would mean plots fakeclaimed having been rb'ed during N1.

So how likely is this.
The setup you suggest is GF, Mafia-RB, Goon vs no known townroles. (Because obviously I am GF, because batsnacks...)
Mafia RB is dead.

This would mean plots claims into a completely unknown setup (and given the scum-setup you suggest, scum would assume there are a lot of town-roles) with the risk of being counterclaimed by the actual town-rb in a situation where it is completely unnecessary, because neither him nor I were under any real suspicion going into D2.
How likely do you think that is?

To me it seems you are so fixated on plots being scum that you just don't see the most-probable option, which is, that his claim is true.
It's almost like a few hours ago, when plots was all "boxer is gonna counterclaim tictock and then we all lynch tictock".
plotspot
Profile Joined October 2014
800 Posts
May 29 2015 13:12 GMT
#1753
On May 29 2015 11:38 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 08:45 plotspot wrote:
Ok let's just say this was the case, at that time when Breshke was killed, wouldn't that mean I'd not better RB the kill target like scum usually does, so how does Barakos get to be the target? This is like implying Barakos is scum coming out pretending to have been the target. That's kind of a stretch isn't it? We then already know that Barakos is the GF because he was already copchecked by bats.
Looking at this do you still think I am Mafia RB? only possible if Barakos is GF. Would I as mafia point it out like this, or would I'd rather hide it?
The most plausible thing is that I'm am Town RB, not Mafia RB neither in case that town had also a Town RB as well as do not have a Town RB? Did I not consider anything?



@ Plots
First the bolded question is one that I already posed to you, and is still one that you as Town RB need to answer in depth. Why did you think Bara was scum and block him? You've posted town or null reads on him before and after N2, so what did he do to make you think you had better block him?

You also seem to suggest that Bara is potentially the GF here. Is that what you were thinking? You didn't like the green check on Bara so you figuered he was the Mafia GF and blocked him?


No Tictock. You keep saying I’m the Mafia RB as a reason why you vote me. Then explain to me this?
Why do I as Mafia RB block Barakos and not Breshke on N2, when I did block Rels on N1?
Why do I as Mafia RB reveal to town that there is an RB, when Mafia is benefits more from keeping stuff like this hidden?
Why do I as Mafia RB point out to you that the only way it is possible for me to be Mafia RB is if it leads town directly to my scumpartner, when I’m playing to win and not to lose?

If you cannot answer these questions convincingly don’t even mention me as a possible Mafia RB to scumread me. You’re like “I make a weak sauce case on this guy why I think he is a Mafia RB that doesn’t hold for 30 seconds, but it’s ok I just risk that town loses an important power role”, which is a ridiculus way of thinking for a townie. Or do you want to doubt my RB status as boxerfred did?

If after considering all things you acknowledge that I cannot be the Mafia RB in this constellation and post it here, I will surely provide to you with a satisfactory reason, why I changed my mind on Barakos for when I checked him. It’s sitting right next here to me. Do we have a deal?

---
This questions of yours makes no sense "You didn't like the green check on Bara so you figuered he was the Mafia GF and blocked him?" in terms of chronological game order. Barakos was copchecked on N1. On N2 batsnacks ninja-posted anout this at very last minute in fear he would die. There is no way for me to somehow know about this beforehand in order not to like and use ot as a reasoon to RB Barakos.

Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 13:12 GMT
#1754
On May 29 2015 22:06 Barakos wrote:
That would mean plots fakeclaimed having been rb'ed during N1.


Incorrect!

On May 27 2015 07:34 plotspot wrote:
Okay, maybe it’s time we talk about this now. I have received a visit from the RB on N1.
I have no idea who did this but, it must be someone who thought I might be scum and checked on it with his night action on N1. Who the hell might do that?


Was posted N2. Here is the Link

The rest of your post was based on this assertion so I disregard.
I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 13:14 GMT
#1755
@Plots

You've still never told us why you, as Town RB role blocked Bara N2
I can take that responsibility.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 13:16 GMT
#1756
On May 29 2015 22:06 Barakos wrote:
That would mean plots fakeclaimed having been rb'ed during N1.


He claimed having been rb'ed during N1 in N2. So he could have waited N1 and D2 to see if someone was claiming to be rb'ed. As a town that was being rb'ed would have been likely to claim. And yes that would 100% lead to you being his GF friend.
But looking through your filter I haven't been able to find substantial evidence for that and I am not sure if I want to go at a greencheck and unclaimed blue for such a tinfoil theory.

That being said. I still think we should check that theory out and not dismiss it right of the bat.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6051 Posts
May 29 2015 13:24 GMT
#1757
On May 29 2015 22:12 Tictock wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2015 22:06 Barakos wrote:
That would mean plots fakeclaimed having been rb'ed during N1.


Incorrect!

Show nested quote +
On May 27 2015 07:34 plotspot wrote:
Okay, maybe it’s time we talk about this now. I have received a visit from the RB on N1.
I have no idea who did this but, it must be someone who thought I might be scum and checked on it with his night action on N1. Who the hell might do that?


Was posted N2. Here is the Link

The rest of your post was based on this assertion so I disregard.


Sorry this was a terrible post. I checked in during a dull moment in an otherwise great TvZ and misread the quote from Bara.

So EBWOP?

Correct!

QUOTE!

This also leads me to believe that you Bara are joining in with the fake claims to mislead town into thinking there is a 2nd Roleblocker this game.
I can take that responsibility.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 13:30 GMT
#1758
On May 29 2015 22:24 Tictock wrote:
This also leads me to believe that you Bara are joining in with the fake claims to mislead town into thinking there is a 2nd Roleblocker this game.


Possible. But we have to find good evidence that point to:
  1. Bara being scum
  2. Bara being plotspots partner


I skimmed Baras filter and he seemed to interact with a bunch of people.
But I didn't see him putting out a lot of acutal reads and the interaction with plotspot until D3 was very minimal.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 13:32 GMT
#1759
EBWOP:
I will read his and plotspots filter very carefully, to see if I can find something there.
Otherwise I think we have to lynch one of Sulfuras/27ninjabunnies and maybe boxerfred.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
May 29 2015 13:33 GMT
#1760
EBWOP2:
I will read his and plotspots filter very carefully, when I am back at home. (in ~2h)
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