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We can talk. I'm pretty sure it's either Yamato or Breshke though and with two lynches I'm good.
I think you're town because your reads have been pretty fluid overall, though you've been pretty stern on Trfel being town and Breshke being scum I feel I understood why you thought that, and you changed your reads a lot on me/wave plus seem willing to listen and push along the game.
I think Trfel is town because he ended up being the one to truly push Wave, there's a ton of doubt in him, I don't think scum Trfel would try the Yamato shenanigans when it seems unlikely that Yamato would actually get lynched over Wave, and his read on me at the start of D3 though frustrating felt extremely familiar.
I think Palmar is probably town not because he'd been going on Wave all the time (though it does help) but rather the response he's given both the first time I pinged him out (continuing on his path and not doing things for easy towncred) and his frustration earlier today where he was being a dick to people. I don't think Palmar would be that much of a dick unless he was extremely frustrated.
I think Breshke can be scum because he hasn't really done much, he seems lax on actually doing work to get to a conclusion, he hasn't had many original thoughts and doesn't really seem to be thinking about the game critically.
I think Yamato can be scum because he's being extraordinarily lazy and he hasn't had many insights into the game that one would expect from Town Yamato. His read evaluation on me earlier on was the best thing he's delivered, but his reasoning on townreading you was lazy and I also feel like he was just looking for excuses to scumread Palmar earlier.
I expect lynching both Breshke and Yamato will win the game.
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Oh another reason why Rso is town is because during Trfel shenanigans she could've switched onto Yamato and I would've followed suit and it probably wouldn't have had anyone blame her for it.
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On May 02 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2015 22:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
We can talk. I'm pretty sure it's either Yamato or Breshke though and with two lynches I'm good.
I think you're town because your reads have been pretty fluid overall, though you've been pretty stern on Trfel being town and Breshke being scum I feel I understood why you thought that, and you changed your reads a lot on me/wave plus seem willing to listen and push along the game.
I think Trfel is town because he ended up being the one to truly push Wave, there's a ton of doubt in him, I don't think scum Trfel would try the Yamato shenanigans when it seems unlikely that Yamato would actually get lynched over Wave, and his read on me at the start of D3 though frustrating felt extremely familiar.
I think Palmar is probably town not because he'd been going on Wave all the time (though it does help) but rather the response he's given both the first time I pinged him out (continuing on his path and not doing things for easy towncred) and his frustration earlier today where he was being a dick to people. I don't think Palmar would be that much of a dick unless he was extremely frustrated.
I think Breshke can be scum because he hasn't really done much, he seems lax on actually doing work to get to a conclusion, he hasn't had many original thoughts and doesn't really seem to be thinking about the game critically.
I think Yamato can be scum because he's being extraordinarily lazy and he hasn't had many insights into the game that one would expect from Town Yamato. His read evaluation on me earlier on was the best thing he's delivered, but his reasoning on townreading you was lazy and I also feel like he was just looking for excuses to scumread Palmar earlier.
I expect lynching both Breshke and Yamato will win the game. lol either you're in my head or i've been thought-dumping so much in the thread it's just plain obvious what and why my reads are the way they are xP okay, so what changed your mind on bresh? just his read on you? you've been pretty adamant he's town most of the game... i've actually got it narrowed to you three, and the one whose filter i most need to read is yours...the reasons for breshke and yamato being scum are pretty obvious (imo) while with you it's more paranoia; i like how you've been part of the game for the most part and seem to be putting the analysis in when it counts. i'm just aware that this could theoretically be a survival tactic (i'm not convinced that you choose to lynch wave over yamato if you're scum, though...getting another mislynch doesn't seem like so big a feat that you'd need to go for the cred there unless wave just doesn't want to play anymore and asks to be lynched/bussed lol ><) truffle is in the middle of moving :/ i still wish he were more active cause him going silent makes me doubt myself lol >< but not enough to lynch him today i'm pretty sure, since it's really just the inactivity making me twitch and nothing else
I really didn't like his D3 play. The way he analyzed me it felt like he was focussing on details that didn't really matter, and then he came with a conclusion that wasn't really a conclusion as it was just for this cycle, plus ignoring parts of the game. It also came down to your and Trfel's meta on Breshke showcasing all the original thoughts he has had in other games that he hasn't had here that I've given a bit more weight, especially since I feel I've got better reasons to townread other players.
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I'm prob gonna end up sheeping you either way. I'm pretty sure lynching Yamato and Breshke wins us the game.
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Gonna be gone for most of the day leading up to deadline due to a concert. Might be back just before, dunno yet.
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I'm back and thought about the game a lot in the car and concluded yamato is roughly 95% mafia. Points to follow, should be in time for lynch but you can move your votes already if you want.
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Basic idea is that wave-yamato interactions make a ton of sense for scum-scum as one of them was bound to get lynched that day so they went for max cred. It can be shown that yamato didn't actually care about getting wave lynched over him, just about looking good post flip by the way he was flipping off on me for searching shitty reasons to make a decision as well as not really having an answer to your case.
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Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that.
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Coupled with the already weird Yamato-Wave interactions that Godmar pointed out before.
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And the fact that Town Yamato is never this careless about getting lynched.
How I read how D2 went down is that Yamato/Wave decided that one of them was likely to get lynched and made two plans; one for each of them getting lynched. The preferred case was likely Yamato (which explains why he didn't really read Wave as much) since Wave's a much better scumplayer in terms of activity. Through Wave hard scumreading Yamato and not considering Breshke, at the time lynchbait, he'd come out looking good enough to potentially secure a mislynch with the help of Breshke on either Trfel, me, or maybe even Rsoultin somehow. After that, he could turn on Breshke, whom still townread him.
The alternative was covered by Wave going hard after Yamato, making him look relatively better post flip. Yamato helped in this by going after the reasons people were using to read them rather than using every ounce to secure Wave gets lynched over him.
This also explains Yamato's lack of motivation later on. He tried pressing something out, but his half-assed towncase on Rsoultin and even more half-assed scumread on Palmar didn't actually contain any critical thought which a Town Yamato determined to solve the game would most certainly have.
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On May 03 2015 08:28 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 08:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Wave-Breshke as scum-scum also doesn't make sense because you have an experienced scum player in Wave and a pretty piss-poor scum player in Breshke and they hard townread each other. Sure, it's potentially a great tactic but how likely is it to actually occur? Not very imo. Also lots of genuine posts by Breshke in retarded things that I've pointed out. One that I haven't pointed out yet is how he instantly mentioned that he read Damdred as blue. I'd imagine scum would be a little more careful with stuff like that. I don't have a chance to fact check what you're saying, but I guess that makes sense. Hm, I still think that the Breshke lynch is pretty solid. Also, I don't think that you can infer much from the high-level interactions between the two players. It's possible that (as mafia) Breshke and WaveofShadow hard townread each other precisely because they didn't think we would expect it.One thing to check is, WaveofShadow did have an extremely poorly explained townread on Breshke. Did he make it seem more that way when it was getting clear he was dying (thus incriminating Breshke), or was it a weak townread all along? IE does it look like he's trying to incriminate Breshke or desperately defend him? Be back in a few minutes, then probably out until End of Day.
It makes sense to think that way because objectively you're probably right in that it would make us think that way. However, I don't think it's something anyone actually does precisely because they fear people thinking about it this way. It's extremely risky and I don't think it's likely it occurred here.
Wave definitely strengthened his townread on Breshke a lot as he was going down.
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Trfel, give me a leap of faith and lynch Yamato.
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On May 03 2015 08:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 08:35 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Trfel, give me a leap of faith and lynch Yamato. On the condition that we lynch you and not Breshke tomorrow if you're wrong
Why would I do that? It's possible I'm wrong. I just don't think it's very likely.
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On May 03 2015 08:56 rsoultin wrote:
eh
i dunnae artie. it's plausible. but it's like the very definition of wifom, your entire argument. are you the type of man who would put poison into your own drink
- scum!yamato
or into mine
-town!breshke
obviously wave wanted to take a dive over his scum partner because he was the goon. are you forgetting that? the blue role was still out there at the time
Does the other scum even have a role? I figured it would've specified since it just says two red vs one blue 6 town. I'd imagine the other scum is a goon too.
That's also not my entire argument. I think the way Yamato played is unlikely to come from Town Yamato because it felt like he was setting up for post flip much more than actually bothering about who got lynched, plus his demotivation seems much more likely to come from scum yamato that knows he can't win since Palmar and I aren't getting lynched over Town Yamato actually looking to solve the game.
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Just some paranoia on maybe Trfel or Palmar but eh, I find it quite unlikely they're scum. I just think Yamato is by far the most likely at this point and I'd rather lynch him today.
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On May 03 2015 09:29 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 09:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Just some paranoia on maybe Trfel or Palmar but eh, I find it quite unlikely they're scum. I just think Yamato is by far the most likely at this point and I'd rather lynch him today. see what i don't get really is that just thinking about it without putting more work into the thread, while you were off somewhere else, you came to such a strong opinion between the two who you think are most likely scum anyway that you refuse to consolidate on one over the other...when you did not have the same strong opinion before you left unless you were like really waffling on a third player this doesn't make a ton of sense to me -_-
Because I thought about the game in the car and suddenly it all made sense.
Is there a reason for scum Artanis to not just come back to hammer Breshke then prob lynch Yamato the day after?
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On May 03 2015 09:31 rsoultin wrote:
can you link me a game where there were no mafia power roles? preferably a 9-player game, because otherwise i don't see how you come to the conclusion both could be goons ^^ please and thank you
find it a bit unlikely that there's no counter to the doctor in the game. i would expect a mafia RB
Why? This is a pointless excercise. I usually balance my games around there being one more blue role than red role in the game. Plus scum have the ability to hold their shot in this game which could be considered a role in itself.
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On May 03 2015 09:32 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 09:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 03 2015 09:29 rsoultin wrote:On May 03 2015 09:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Just some paranoia on maybe Trfel or Palmar but eh, I find it quite unlikely they're scum. I just think Yamato is by far the most likely at this point and I'd rather lynch him today. see what i don't get really is that just thinking about it without putting more work into the thread, while you were off somewhere else, you came to such a strong opinion between the two who you think are most likely scum anyway that you refuse to consolidate on one over the other...when you did not have the same strong opinion before you left unless you were like really waffling on a third player this doesn't make a ton of sense to me -_- Because I thought about the game in the car and suddenly it all made sense. Is there a reason for scum Artanis to not just come back to hammer Breshke then prob lynch Yamato the day after? to make it look like scum Artanis cared about who was getting lynched? xP yes. obviously a lack of caring would by far be more suspicious
Of course not. We lynch Breshke today, we're 99% lynching Yamato tomorrow. Be real here, seriously.
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On May 03 2015 09:41 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2015 09:33 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 03 2015 09:32 rsoultin wrote:On May 03 2015 09:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 03 2015 09:29 rsoultin wrote:On May 03 2015 09:24 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Just some paranoia on maybe Trfel or Palmar but eh, I find it quite unlikely they're scum. I just think Yamato is by far the most likely at this point and I'd rather lynch him today. see what i don't get really is that just thinking about it without putting more work into the thread, while you were off somewhere else, you came to such a strong opinion between the two who you think are most likely scum anyway that you refuse to consolidate on one over the other...when you did not have the same strong opinion before you left unless you were like really waffling on a third player this doesn't make a ton of sense to me -_- Because I thought about the game in the car and suddenly it all made sense. Is there a reason for scum Artanis to not just come back to hammer Breshke then prob lynch Yamato the day after? to make it look like scum Artanis cared about who was getting lynched? xP yes. obviously a lack of caring would by far be more suspicious Of course not. We lynch Breshke today, we're 99% lynching Yamato tomorrow. Be real here, seriously. lol xP then what's your problem? we're 99% lynching yamato tomorrow anyway, according to you except people have expressed doubt about you at various times xP palmar, myself, breshke, for sure
Because you're being senselessly paranoid. There is absolutely no reason for me not to just vote breshke here as scum then try to lynch yamato. The fact that you actually think it makes any sense for me to do so as scum fuels my rage to enormous levels to the sense that if you're serious on this I demand you vote for me tomorrow, I'll vote for myself, I'm sure Yamato will cooperate and then Palmar gets to lynch me because he enjoys it and there we go.
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On May 03 2015 09:48 rsoultin wrote:
try-harding makes sense if you've a reasonable belief that there are more potential scum in the players remaining than lynches remaining. you haven't demonstrated that. you've come forth with an odd theory that mafia had no scum power roles
and unfortunately for you if you're scum, you're talking to one of the most try-hard, active scum players on the site xP who is 100% not going to take just the fact that you have an opinion as confirmation that you're town
i actually see very little reason for your stubbornness here, in this context
and as long as we're being frank, the strength of that "revelation" you posted that was primarily WIFOM does not mirror the strength of your conviction, which is even more concerning. that you reject out-of-hand the very real likelihood that there is a scum power role instead of considering it like you should...since there really is no way to know for sure and it is speculative, does not make me feel better about your return to the thread
i have to think -_- bah
can't work on my paper in peace lol ><
You're trying to display that as town my thought process makes no sense when as scum my play makes faaaaaaaaar less sense. I lynch Breshke, we go to LYLO, Yamato still looks absolutely terrible, I post what I've posted today or something even better by that time and win the game. I 100% always take the Breshke lynch here. The very fact that you bring up I've been suspicious of him all the time makes it that much easier for me to get away with mislynching him here as scum. There's NO way I'd ever do that and if you actually think it's a realistic option I demand that you lynch me come next deadline. I'll cooperate.
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EPT
