EPTnope.
TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 389
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
nope. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On March 29 2015 09:56 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I was scum with him in Imperial and I find that he's definitely playing beyond that right now. In Imperial, he was always hanging a bit in the danger zone, and I don't think he ever created an analysis like he has this game. I'll look it up just to make sure though. I was also scum with you two, which is why I find it hard to see you believing what you're typing lol. Maybe it's a lost in translation thing, or maybe my read is superior. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On January 07 2015 00:42 Damdred wrote: 2; GlowingBear- Glowingbears d1 and d2 were largely forgettable as in GB wasn't here doing anything. I actually believe GB that he was just busy and doing holiday things during this time period. Being two hundred or so pages behind GB seems to attack people through looking at filters or whats going on in the game directly. We see that GB goes after the harder targets in the game which is alignment indicative of GB. If you look in GBs past mafia games he rarely goes after the hard target, in arnie got a gun gb did go after robik some but overall he still went after the easy mislynches (and robik was getting a good bit of heat at the time) but he finally settled on templar to get a kill for that day and then went on to focus on me. If you then look at Fanfiction Mafia, GB mainly tunneled onto me throughout the whole game as I was viewed as a weaker town read but was pretty easy to get lost in that. Look at recent town games of GB, GB went after the heavy hitters in HF (carol), Marv (Russian), JAT (here). I really think that this is alignment indicative at this point in GBs mafia play after this game its possibly not because i've posted and he will change his meta again. When GB is here he is putting his neck out for reads even if some of them come off as a bit tin foil hat. Overall I think GB is town today and gets more time to develop reads right now and contribute. 4; Artanis[XP] - Artanis seems pretty town to me, has been engaged in everything that the thread has been throwing out. Has tried to push his lynch forward and has seemed to logically go about things in a good way. Also seems to have pretty good follow up with the questioning phase and looks to find if things are lining up. I think right now Artanis is in my top three town reads. 5; Lazermonkey - Lazermonkey is scum. If you look at my case d1, kels case d1 and n2, you will see that he is scum. He is super defensive about everything the moment he gets pressure. He misrepresents a ton of things going on in the thread and when confronted with it backtracks a good deal (one of his posts towards me, misrepresents me and SL at points). He has scum reads at certain points and is super happy to lynch them but then forgets about them when the thread does and almst never pushes them again (scum read on me when kel relented lm never did again and now sl is scum). Hard defends someone who his probably mafia I think hes mafia. 6; Marvellosity - I'm going to be putting marv into the town pile right now. While his play leaves something to be desired especially around lynch time, he seems to give opinions as the game goes along and seems to care. Just comparing this game to any of his recent games you can see it looks closer to his town games then it does his scum games. I really think that he has given some good thoughts to the game and really wish he would knowledge bomb us though and find some mafia. Also this marv kind of reminds me of Cell Marv where he was town but didn't care as much because some people didn't listen to him early. Hes probably a mid tier to lower tier town read but i wouldn't lynch him. 8; IAmRobik - I think Robik is probably town, hes really tunneled at this point. Its more of a gut thing than anything and is a super weak read, his fights seemed a bit weird to me and contrived at points and kinda made VE rage quit. Promised to do more and has done a bit so i'm not sure but I think town. 9; TheChyz (replaced)- I think earlier I talked about how the slot is more than likely town for a few reasons, it was tunneled into for pretty bad reasons and it caused a rage quit. However the manner in which they rage quit looked pretty towny besides claiming scum, leaving a will that could be used to implicate your team mates is not something I think a scum quitting would do. Town more than likely. 10; Palmar - Palmar is probably scum. He afk'd on most of the lynches and was goin to waste his vote at one point before he was confronted with it, in another game Palmar mentioned that he is either a 0 or a 10 as town and usually a 5-7 as mafia. I would put Palmar in a weird range of seeming to do things and not do things, his knowledge bomb on d1 got him a pass but he really hasn't done much since then. His push on marv feels a bit weird to me, he really didn't push hes just been soft pushing to see if people would pick it up to me. And he really hasn't reacted to SLs fake claim+rescend which just rom knowing palmar he has a policy to lynch claimers as i've recently experienced. I think its out o his town game. 13; sicklucker - I think SL is town, I would put him into the top five right now. His play which has gotten him some flack just doesn't make sense coming from a mafia. He is barely under any pressure and he claims cop with a green check changes it and then unclaims during the night for wifom. It just looks like someone who watches or plays video mafia would make this play and see it as pretty good. I don't like the play as it might draw out the cop but it does not make sense at this juncture for mafia to want to go 1-1 with the cop. SL is pretty solidly town for me. Besides that if you look at his play he has developed a few crazy theories and flip flops on people to get reactions and to flush out his reads if you look at student mafia, carol, metal mafia you can see him doing this a ton it is one of the staples of his town game. 14; Vivax - 15; KelsierSC- Kel is town. Honestly hes my top town at this point. His questioning people during the night and day phases, his follow up and his synopsis of all his questioning sessions at the end really point to town. He has follow up, he pushes what he thinks and tries t get who he wants lynched. He is trying to solve this game and he is town. 16; ritoky - I think ritoky is a good shot at scum. I had a slight town read on him d1 due to his follow up being so different then his mafia games in carol and in season of the witch. However his follow up to that has been pretty bad up to a point, he was pretty useless n1, d2 and n2. He doesn't really have much push behind what hes saying, however his posts so far in d3 have been ok, his vote analysis wasn't bad and hes giving some decent thoughts to the thread. I'm not sure that he should be the lynch today but i'm still sold that hes a good shot at mafia. 17; DoctorHelvetica - I'm actually leaning scum on DrH right now, his day one while almost everyone called it towny looks a bit weird to me. He tunnels one player all day (chy) who he makes rage quit, inflated his filter by doing so and made up a scum team of chy and geript. Come end of day he can get chy potentially lynched and definitely get geript lynched. However instead he chooses to shenany off of his top two scum reads onto a lesser read leaving his other scum reads alive another day, when confronted with this information he said he was second guessing himself. Since this time he has dissapeared from the thread going from 19 pages of filter in cycle one down to 5 pages since, his return will tell a lot because he has not really been involved in any situations really since d1. Hes a possible scum but he probably shouldn't be the lynch today unless something huge happens. 20; Superbia - I've talked a good deal about superbia at this point, really wanted this lynch yesterday. And really want it today as well, Superbia is not playing like he normally would as town. Barely has any formulated reads and when he gives promises that he will do things he barely does anything and goes away for most of the other time. Seems to be posting angry all the time and is really defensive about all things. This is a great lynch I think if we want to go for a lurker especially today. Obviously i've removed myself and the dead people in this list as i'm most sure of the alignments on those. I still have to do vivax but i ran out of time, be back shortly any questions or comments please leave them i'll finish soon. Looks nothing like the VCA he's done this game. Just a standard list post that doesn't even comment on Vivax. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 29 2015 09:59 ritoky wrote: I was also scum with you two, which is why I find it hard to see you believing what you're typing lol. Maybe it's a lost in translation thing, or maybe my read is superior. Have you thoroughly gone into the analysis he's done though? I find it extremely hard to imagine he can fake that as scum. Also what's with this soft accusing thing I highlighted? I'll ask again: What is your read on me? | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On March 29 2015 09:53 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I also still want an explanation for this. And your read on me right now. I don't know what you're referring to. You're referring to things I don't really remember, sorry....and I don't have the focus to dig through filters with pregnancy congratulations never fucking ending. pretty much I said I am okay being PoE'd to eden if he moved damdred in and some1 who was a good town read out. he refused, so I said w/e guess it ain't happening. stuff with vivax don't really remember. my read on you has been town on the stupid ground that you helped me with a bunch of catchup info early in the game in a non-dickish or pocket way that seemed pretty objective. I found no motive other than helping, so you're town and if you're mafia I am pocketed and losing. | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On March 29 2015 10:00 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Have you thoroughly gone into the analysis he's done though? I find it extremely hard to imagine he can fake that as scum. Also what's with this soft accusing thing I highlighted? I'll ask again: What is your read on me? damdred has taken up copying a couple of my metrics that I do in terms of vote analysis...which I actually haven't been keeping track of this game for the first time in forever. it has improved both his town analysis and his fake analysis as scum imo. recency thing | ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On March 29 2015 09:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote: And I think you're really wrong here because you're describing the only play mafia could make to win if they're all in PoE and for some reason you want to give them that chance when I'm over 95% certain on every townread of mine besides MAYBE Damdred. I'm not going to ignore the strength of these reads and the desparation mafia would have based on a single redcheck, that's ridiculous. you have a list of 5. say you're correct, and say every person outside the 5 agrees to lynch that PoE list (which is largely the case of this game). doesn't that create a 0% chance of mafia victory if all of them are in that pool? is my math wrong here? which means either mafia has to make a play surrounding the orb OR you have to be wrong somewhere. assuming mafia has the orb. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
So, let's start off with the general direction of the game, and how the game has progressed from yesterday. Let's start off with the assumption that I'm town. The following wagon was on me at the wagon's summit: On March 27 2015 06:10 Blazinghand wrote: Superbia (8): Artanis[Xp], Eden1892, FecalFeast, Alakaslam, ritoky, Damdred, Toadesstern, Trfel Of these, FF and Slam (who flipped town) stand out. FF liked the case I put on Artanis, but seemed fine with sheeping Artanis when he put his case on me. This seems very odd to me, but in a way that is regardless of FF's alignment. I literally just don't know what he is doing. That being said, I also see FF's recent lynch outlook post as coming from a town perspective. His view on me makes sense from what I recall from our interactions. That being said: FF, kindly explain your read on me. Why did you think I was scum or a PR? What gave it away? You said earlier on that your read on me involves calling me mafia, how did that read progress? Moving on, I kind of like damdred in a weird WIFOMy way. He called me out for giving a shit defense in a sort of BM way. I don't think scum does this, tbh. I don't know damdred very well, but I don't think scum shits on a townie about to get miss-lynched like that. Furthermore, his poke sparked me, and allowed me to give the defense to prevent the miss-lynch (though we still miss-lynched). He was also one of the first to rescind off the wagon (iirc). He might be laughing in his scum QT right now, but he's getting a town read for now. Ritoky, I don't even know where he's at, to be honest. His opinion seems uninformed, and I don't think a town would be comfortable lynching someone who they have been unable to form a proper opinion about. Moreover, the rayn slot seems incredibly fishy. I scum-read rayn before the claim (iirc), and I don't understand the rescind off the PR, nor why scum seemingly did not put an RB or a KP on him (more on this later). I can see why rayn would fake claim in that scenario as town, as he had been tired of people not listening to him in previous games, and he may be uninterested in defending himself, but it's so bad as town, because it can bait out a CC. Furthermore, I don't think he used his position of temporary confirmed town to push anything (again, iirc). The fact that this fake-claim has (seemingly, and iirc, I haven't actually read the majority of d2, tbh) not been fully explored yet is alarming to say the least. I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3. Toad looks really, really good for his push on Palmar d1, the CC, and the fact that it looks like his KP is the KP that went through d2. Vivax goes on this list too for now, but I have no idea what I'm going to think if I encounter him in final 3. Actually almost missed Breshke when studying the wagon. Honestly, I think Breshke is somewhat likely scum? I hate saying this. =/ He has hard defended me at multiple times in the game (and I have agreed), but I think the defense may be a little TMI. The fact is, a lot of town has read me as scummy for most of the game, and I have no idea why he has been comfortable defending me. Also, I have noticed that he did not hard defend me during the wagon on me, while I have a feeling he was around regardless. This post is the most scummy for me: On March 27 2015 07:09 Breshke wrote: he argument between artanis and superbia made superbia look worse because i understood what artanis was saying whereas I had no idea wtf superbia was trying to say/do. That being said superbia should still not be lynched today. Im down for lynching onegu or slam maybe FF but not theres a reason id rather not explain why that is bad this phase. The people who say slam could be mafia but we shouldnt lynch him and just sort him out with the orb arn't really thinking it through because the orb has a 50% chance to do nothing if slam knows he is going to be orbed and you can literally say the same thing about anyone else you push on. ##Vote Onegu I have no idea why he is still comfortable town-reading me while still saying that. Finally, Onegu. I actually sort of like Onegu? I kinda likes how he approaches the lynch in this post: On March 28 2015 22:53 Onegu wrote: Out of these two id more prefer superbia over ritoky. The wagons went off of him onto two town wagons. Plus I had my Rayn soul read and it would really devistate me if this was the first time I was wrong. Like if he's town it really does not mean much for him to look at votes, as it doesn't matter for scum what they vote, while normally you would look at who voted. I was even going to call him out for this, but it makes sense for town!Onegu to look at it like this. I also want to discuss the N1 actions a bit more. We have these claims before N1: Vivax - KP on ??? Toad - KP on ??? Rayn - Track on ??? We have these claims post N1: Vivax - KP on Slam (scum could've seen this coming), Roleblocked. Toad - KP on VE (scum could've seen this coming, but less so than the KP on slam). Rayn - Rescind his tracker claim. RSO - Jail on Onegu. Now. The interesting thing is that Rayn never got roleblocked, while he and Palmar did have sort of an encounter in the later stage of d1 (though rayn showed no interest in wanting to lynch palmar, afaik). This while Palmar is mafia (though goon). Now, unless I'm completely wrong, there was a decent chance that Palmar would be in Rayn's sights if rayn was an actual tracker. I don't know this, but Palmar may have suspected this. Furthermore, there was a decent chance that Palmar was going to carry the KP through the night as goon (you don't really want mafia PRs to carry it, especially due to tracker), so why not RB rayn? Like this is very speculative, especially looking back, but ask yourself this: why did scum not roleblock rayn? Who is a much higher risk target than a (what I'm assuming is) a town vigi who is willing to follow HF and when the targets are two town (now confirmed). This world only makes sense if Vivax is actually mafia, and scum were looking to confirm Vivax by foregoing the roleblock and claiming it on Vivax OR if Onegu was carrying the KP that was going on rayn. This is still rather speculative, but I think this is a good reason to lynch Ritoky (ex-rayn) today. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
What made you change from thinking I might be scum for this post to now again reading me town? Half an hour later, you asked Vivax what he thought about my post. Why Vivax? Now that you've confirmed you think I'm town, that post can no longer be a reason why you switched your opinion on Damdred, so why did you switch your opinion from being near certain to possibly? | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 29 2015 10:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Actually, I was wrong. You were never okay with the idea, you instantly replied cautiously. What made you change from thinking I might be scum for this post to now again reading me town? Half an hour later, you asked Vivax what he thought about my post. Why Vivax? Now that you've confirmed you think I'm town, that post can no longer be a reason why you switched your opinion on Damdred, so why did you switch your opinion from being near certain to possibly? Was in response to On March 29 2015 10:02 ritoky wrote: I don't know what you're referring to. You're referring to things I don't really remember, sorry....and I don't have the focus to dig through filters with pregnancy congratulations never fucking ending. pretty much I said I am okay being PoE'd to eden if he moved damdred in and some1 who was a good town read out. he refused, so I said w/e guess it ain't happening. stuff with vivax don't really remember. my read on you has been town on the stupid ground that you helped me with a bunch of catchup info early in the game in a non-dickish or pocket way that seemed pretty objective. I found no motive other than helping, so you're town and if you're mafia I am pocketed and losing. | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Not Voting (11): sicklucker, Vivax, Toadesstern, Onegu, Breshke, Superbia, Fecalfeast, Trfel, ritoky, Artanis[Xp], Damdred Currently, no one is set to be executed. Day 4 ends in at 23:00 GMT (+00:00). Reminder to make sure to unvote before voting, if you have already voted someone. Voting is mandatory and in this thread. You may NOT abstain. Posting after the deadline and prior to flip is subject to a modkill. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 29 2015 10:06 Superbia wrote: I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3. What changed? | ||
Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
That's weird to think about. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
On March 29 2015 10:04 ritoky wrote: damdred has taken up copying a couple of my metrics that I do in terms of vote analysis...which I actually haven't been keeping track of this game for the first time in forever. it has improved both his town analysis and his fake analysis as scum imo. recency thing So you're telling me to look at Imperial. I look at Imperial and see it's inferior to what he's done here, then you tell me he's improved it? You can't have it both ways. On March 29 2015 10:06 ritoky wrote: you have a list of 5. say you're correct, and say every person outside the 5 agrees to lynch that PoE list (which is largely the case of this game). doesn't that create a 0% chance of mafia victory if all of them are in that pool? is my math wrong here? which means either mafia has to make a play surrounding the orb OR you have to be wrong somewhere. assuming mafia has the orb. Doesn't your argument suggest that we should always lynch into the person making the claim if they're in PoE yourself? Why did you argue otherwise earlier? | ||
|
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
Honestly, it's kind of hard to explain. I really liked a scum team with you on it, and from yesterday, it made sense. But looking back, it just seems like there has been (in most townie's opinion) a good reason to read me scum, though I still vehemently disagree with it. You did manage to put down your thoughts in a good case, and your actions just read like it would probably come from a townie perspective. Honestly, I feel like closely evaluating you again at this point in time is just a tremendous waste of time because: 1. I will never be able to lead a lynch (let alone on you) and 2. If you flip town I can never avoid the counter lynch followed by losing the game. I'm also way too afraid of what this will do to my (albeit limited) reputation if this happens. x: Like you've been incredibly active and it looks like you're actually trying to solve the game lately. I did not feel this way yesterday. | ||
|
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On March 29 2015 09:51 Breshke wrote: What game have i signed up for? If you are referring to the newbie game i signed up for that before i signed up for this game so not sure if that is what you are referring to. yes | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
| ||
|
ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On March 29 2015 10:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Actually, I was wrong. You were never okay with the idea, you instantly replied cautiously. What made you change from thinking I might be scum for this post to now again reading me town? Half an hour later, you asked Vivax what he thought about my post. Why Vivax? Now that you've confirmed you think I'm town, that post can no longer be a reason why you switched your opinion on Damdred, so why did you switch your opinion from being near certain to possibly? to answer second bit first: I was paranoid about being wrong on damdred, you capitalizing on the confidence of my read, and taking the game quickly to LYLO as mafia. and then 2 things happened: 1) I thought to myself that I don't remember you being that ballsy/flashy as a mafia player and 2) my wife got pregnant. as a result of these things and eden dying I have resigned myself to losing to you if you have fooled me. idk why I asked vivax, don't remember. probably because he is a claimed vigi who I was interacting with at the time. why is it strange that I asked a claimed vigi's opinion? near certain to possible is because I always doubt my early reads over time and usually it fucks me and I shoulda just stuck to my god tier early reads. | ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
| ||
| ||
