|
On March 23 2015 10:42 sicklucker wrote: 2+2-1=3 Sicklucker, Eden asked for the number of kills without interference. And assuming every mafia shot.
Would you like to argue that blocking a shot with a roleblock doesn't count as interfering with it?
|
On March 23 2015 10:45 sicklucker wrote: So onegu was saved or toads mafia basically. So hes pretty likely mafia I doubt we have a vet we seem to have are roles capped out There are several of possibilities.
1. Onegu was shot 2. Onegu was carrying the KP himself (and was roleblocked) 3. Veteran was shot 4. Toadesstern is mafia 5. Mafia double-stacked to incriminate Toadesstern
|
On March 23 2015 10:48 Eden1892 wrote: damn i'm itching to force onegu to claim with his partner and force his partner to claim What is the downside to doing this?
I am heavily scumreading Onegu currently.
|
On March 23 2015 10:49 sicklucker wrote: Actually rstoul is 100% a vet for that horrid claim. Well played And if this is true, you just gave it away. Congratulations.
Hint: it's not.
|
On March 23 2015 10:52 sicklucker wrote:Trefel + Show Spoiler +Maybe im trying to trick mafia its all wifmo bro your rly bad at this part of the game + Show Spoiler +That would never work, everyone and their mother knows it.
|
Sicklucker, I apologize. I'm sorry.
I have reasons for my actions, but it's not worth going into them. If you would like, we can discuss the right/wrong thing to do after the game.
Eden, you are currently scumreading raynpelikoneet, right? If he isn't tracker, that leaves us with 2 vigilantes, 1 jailkeeper, and 1 cop (assuming no masons). You don't think it's possible for there to be a veteran in addition to this?
|
I don't see why mafia would shoot Onegu or VisceraEyes here. It doesn't make sense. And if you assume that Toadesstern is town, and that mafia didn't shoot Onegu or VisceraEyes, Onegu is basically confirmed mafia.
Raynpelikoneet's claim aside, any mafia reading the thread would realize that ExO_ was extremely likely to be a blue. He was leaving hints to being blue all over the place, and furthermore, I commented on it twice. It was kind of impossible to miss. I don't think shooting mason Onegu (when partner Holyflare is getting shot already) or shooting VisceraEyes (who was often scumread and made one sentence saying he may or may not be blue) can be at all considered better than shooting ExO_ in this case.
Do others agree with this analysis?
|
On March 23 2015 11:39 Damdred wrote: Actually its possible rayn is the scum obviously oneg is mason with someone and hf in retrospect left a last will in mason qt to be posted if he died or something crazy mafia wifom. And besides that you can't leave 100% confirmed townies alive it gives the thread to much to work with.
If oneg doesn't claim tommorow we either lynch him or orb him. Hm...
That makes a lot of sense.
Fair enough. I'm still suspicious of Onegu, but I suppose it's not confirmed by any stretch.
|
Why do you expect Onegu to telling the truth after lying twice? Regardless of alignment.
|
On March 23 2015 12:53 Onegu wrote: You dumb dumbs lynch me before Rayn. When I flip mason you lynch toad when he flips scum you lynch rsoul. Who are you mason with?
Why should we not lynch raynpelikoneet?
|
On March 23 2015 12:57 Damdred wrote: Rayns scum though.
oneg not so much Why do you townread Onegu....
He just seems to be flailing wildly to me.
|
On March 23 2015 15:47 Eden1892 wrote: >anybody is still reading this monstrosity I read it.
|
Raynpelikoneet, why did you track Vivax?
|
On March 24 2015 01:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:I said i would track one of Vivax/Toad and i rng'd it. From my perspective, tracking one of the claimed vigilantes seems pointless.
If they really are vigilante, then they either got roleblocked (went nowhere) or visited their target.
If they are mafia, then they either lied (went nowhere) or visited their target.
You only gain information if one of the vigilantes visited someone other than the claimed to, which would be extremely stupid for them to do, unless they were framer/roleblocker. So I'm assuming that you were checking to see if Vivax was actually framer or roleblocker? Or am I missing something?
|
On March 24 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2015 01:52 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 01:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 01:46 Trfel wrote: Raynpelikoneet, why did you track Vivax? I said i would track one of Vivax/Toad and i rng'd it. From my perspective, tracking one of the claimed vigilantes seems pointless. If they really are vigilante, then they either got roleblocked (went nowhere) or visited their target. If they are mafia, then they either lied (went nowhere) or visited their target. You only gain information if one of the vigilantes visited someone other than the claimed to, which would be extremely stupid for them to do, unless they were framer/roleblocker. So I'm assuming that you were checking to see if Vivax was actually framer or roleblocker? Or am I missing something? You are half right. It doesn't matter which one i track if i tell i track one of them. If mafia has an way out they probably will not roleblock me. That means they will probably roleblock the vigi who is not mafia (yes, and i assume Toad is mafia -- so that would be Vivax here). Most likely the scum that is not a vigi (assuming there is one between them) is not going to do anything or is going to claim they shot mafia night kill. So it really does not matter which one of them i track, but it will give a 100% confirmation what one of the CLAIMED BLUES did. Had i tracked someone else they can just claim vanilla (or rather, i would not have claimed my check at all until later) and if i miss mafia/town PR i get no info at all. So what you're saying is, because you weren't roleblocked, that means that mafia wasn't worried about the results of your tracking.
And your conclusion is that Vivax is town and Toadesstern is mafia.
I'm sorry, I just don't understand. You don't need to explain it again, hopefully enough other people understand it so it's a non-issue.
|
On March 24 2015 02:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2015 02:03 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 01:52 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 01:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 01:46 Trfel wrote: Raynpelikoneet, why did you track Vivax? I said i would track one of Vivax/Toad and i rng'd it. From my perspective, tracking one of the claimed vigilantes seems pointless. If they really are vigilante, then they either got roleblocked (went nowhere) or visited their target. If they are mafia, then they either lied (went nowhere) or visited their target. You only gain information if one of the vigilantes visited someone other than the claimed to, which would be extremely stupid for them to do, unless they were framer/roleblocker. So I'm assuming that you were checking to see if Vivax was actually framer or roleblocker? Or am I missing something? You are half right. It doesn't matter which one i track if i tell i track one of them. If mafia has an way out they probably will not roleblock me. That means they will probably roleblock the vigi who is not mafia (yes, and i assume Toad is mafia -- so that would be Vivax here). Most likely the scum that is not a vigi (assuming there is one between them) is not going to do anything or is going to claim they shot mafia night kill. So it really does not matter which one of them i track, but it will give a 100% confirmation what one of the CLAIMED BLUES did. Had i tracked someone else they can just claim vanilla (or rather, i would not have claimed my check at all until later) and if i miss mafia/town PR i get no info at all. So what you're saying is, because you weren't roleblocked, that means that mafia wasn't worried about the results of your tracking. And your conclusion is that Vivax is town and Toadesstern is mafia. I'm sorry, I just don't understand. You don't need to explain it again, hopefully enough other people understand it so it's a non-issue. What did toad do? I'm confident that Toad shot VisceraEyes. As either the town vigilante or a mafia goon.
|
Grr, it seems that everyone is confusing me. Maybe I'm still too sleepy.
Rsoultin, what conclusions are you drawing from your voting analysis? You seem to be saying that voting suggests that Palmar and Onegu are town. Anything else?
|
On March 24 2015 02:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 02:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 02:03 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 01:52 Trfel wrote:On March 24 2015 01:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 24 2015 01:46 Trfel wrote: Raynpelikoneet, why did you track Vivax? I said i would track one of Vivax/Toad and i rng'd it. From my perspective, tracking one of the claimed vigilantes seems pointless. If they really are vigilante, then they either got roleblocked (went nowhere) or visited their target. If they are mafia, then they either lied (went nowhere) or visited their target. You only gain information if one of the vigilantes visited someone other than the claimed to, which would be extremely stupid for them to do, unless they were framer/roleblocker. So I'm assuming that you were checking to see if Vivax was actually framer or roleblocker? Or am I missing something? You are half right. It doesn't matter which one i track if i tell i track one of them. If mafia has an way out they probably will not roleblock me. That means they will probably roleblock the vigi who is not mafia (yes, and i assume Toad is mafia -- so that would be Vivax here). Most likely the scum that is not a vigi (assuming there is one between them) is not going to do anything or is going to claim they shot mafia night kill. So it really does not matter which one of them i track, but it will give a 100% confirmation what one of the CLAIMED BLUES did. Had i tracked someone else they can just claim vanilla (or rather, i would not have claimed my check at all until later) and if i miss mafia/town PR i get no info at all. So what you're saying is, because you weren't roleblocked, that means that mafia wasn't worried about the results of your tracking. And your conclusion is that Vivax is town and Toadesstern is mafia. I'm sorry, I just don't understand. You don't need to explain it again, hopefully enough other people understand it so it's a non-issue. What did toad do? I'm confident that Toad shot VisceraEyes. As either the town vigilante or a mafia goon. Did he say so? Yes, Toadesstern says he shot VisceraEyes. And if he is mafia, he still would personally have shot VisceraEyes (no reason to have someone else do it).
|
I guess, I don't think that there is much to be gained from analyzing votes that occurred well before the deadline, when half the game hadn't voted at all yet. For example, raynpelikoneet added the third vote on LightningStrike, bringing LightningStrike into a 3-3-3 tie for first with sicklucker and Vivax. However, I don't think this clears raynpelikoneet, because there were about nine hours left in the day at this point, and the votes were very widely spread (such that the vote count was sure to change drastically).
In the same way, I don't see Onegu voting for LightningStrike as saying much about Onegu, since while he did push LightningStrike into the voting lead, he did so with seven hours remaining, and the votes still very spread out and fluctuating. I think voting a partner into the lead is a fine play for scum to do here, as the risk is rather small.
And I don't townread people who are staying out of the main wagons with several hours to go before the deadline. There is plenty of time for stuff to happen, plenty of time to save LightningStrike if things go bad. In fact, I think it makes sense for scum to push the counterwagon to LightningStrike with something more like three hours left to the deadline, and not earlier. Especially in a large game like this.
And I don't see what the switch to Bill Murray provides, except those who switched to Bill Murray instead of the vigilante Vivax are more likely to be town (sorry Vivax!). But even that isn't confirmed, as scum was readily willing to roleblock Vivax, solving that problem.
Palmar wasn't in a position to hammer Vivax, so I don't townread him for hammering Bill Murray instead. Same with raynpelikoneet. So I don't townread them for doing so.
LightningStrike's vote even further cements Vivax as town. And that's the only thing I really see in the voting analysis at this time, unfortunately. What am I missing?
However, this obviously ignores what players were actually doing in the thread, and is based on votes alone.
|
Raynpelikoneet, I'm actually on your side on this one.
But please, calm down and explain it. There are a lot of people who think this way. It's not worth yelling about.
|
|
|
|