TL Mafia LXX: Guardians of the Galaxy - Page 12

I'm back and first things first: Sorry I wasn't around in the last.... 16 or so hours. Things happened, I didn't exactly have the greatest day over here and I figured I did enough d1 to afk for a while during night and ... let's keep it at that. If someone here honestly wants to push the idea (I think it was Vivax or VE?) that I'm scummy for not caring during the night... whatever can't argue that in my position atm but I think it'd be a horrible argument after looking at my previous posts. I have at the very least shown that I do care and I wouldn't just go afk by choice as neither town nor mafia in this case so chances are I actually had something else more important going on.

That being said reason I'm making this post is to get some thoughtprocess in from my end of the line again and where I'm at because even if I had had time on my hands I would have flat out refused to give my open reads to the thread (that includes mafia!) during the night when I'm a claimed vig... This post however I'm 100%, completly open with no shenanigans in here, which I'll assume people won't like in this case either but anyways, here we go.

So the plan was to shoot Vivax while agreeing to shoot whoever you guys tell me to shoot. I know you might be in a tricky situation having to make a pick between Vivax and me but I'm not. I have my own alignment, which makes things a lot easier for me.
The reason for doing so is that if you guys tell me who to shoot I'll be 100% roleblocked if it's a mafiatarget (assuming mafia has an RB but I'll get into that later) anyways so I won't be able to shoot. The only possible outcome for shooting mafia to begin with is me agreeing to shoot a townie convincingly, Mafia thus deciding they won't RB me and I shoot Vivax anyways. That's essentially the reason I'm telling you about this right now: I just didn't have the time to do the "convincingly" part because look at paragraph 1 and this way idk.. not exactly feeling confident about my plan without putting in a decent amount of work first but there's no turning back here with 3 hours to deadline. Thus I at least give you this post! And as I write that I just made this http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/480042-tl-mafia-lxx-guardians-of-the-galaxy?page=187#3733 post. That's what I mean with "don't think that's convincingly"
///GOD DAMN IT I'M STUPID... why did I call the shot on HF instead of Onegu... HF is probably a legit shot for mafia and that's just confusion... should have mentioned Onegu instead from the get-go. FML I'm stupid... sorry... I should have thought this through one more second before pressing "send", just thought HF is the more obvious townie and didn't think about me maybe getting in troubles because of it because duh... I'm town right?...

So like I said, the situation's a bit easier for me because I do know my own alignment. I do know it's not a 50/50 between Vivax and me. And no there are no two townVigs. They're named after specific people (or so it seems, I never watched the show). That'd be like arguing there might be mutliple poison Ivy's in Arkham City or multiple jokers or multiple Batmans. It's just not going to happen. Vivax is not Drax.
One more thing about roles and role-balance here: The set-up has to make sense. To every role there's one or more pseudo-counterroles. If you have a cop in the game mafia is more likely to have a framer. If you have a Vig in the game mafia is more likely to have an RB or medic (though usually RB as that's the JOAT for mafia in this matter). Right?
So chances are pretty damn good mafia actually has an RB considering that there are no mafia-medics.

One more thing I mentioned earlier in that regard but didn't want to outright say in thread earlier. I asked for Cop on me at the beginning of the night (I think I at least ended up writing it out and not just thinking about it?) because:
I don't want a possible cop to claim. If he checks me, sees I'm green we go on like nothing happened. If he checks Vivax and finds him to be red chances are high we're making a cop claim for an already obvious lynch because "guys guys I got a red check on Vivax!"... which we don't want, thus me asking to be checked myself rather than Vivax.
Problem here being powerrole balance. I think it's really really really likely for mafia to have a framer if we have a cop, especially if we have 1 Vig on top of that. 1 RB is not enough to counter 1 cop and 1 vig. So IF we do have a cop mafia is bound to have a framer. I don't think it's a hard decision what to frame for mafia in this situation... either defensively frame Vivax hoping for a cop to check him and yell "checkeed vivax, he's green. Lynch Toad!" or the other way around on me making me red and hoping cop checks me like I asked.
Thing is, that's a null-tell either way. Literally 50% chance of the check to be correct and 50% chance of it to be exactly the opposite. Actually found the post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/480042-tl-mafia-lxx-guardians-of-the-galaxy?page=161#3209
So if some one you want to misinterpret that into "Toad's scared of being cop-checked!"... I don't think I would have made that post if that'd be the case. I just came to the conclusion that the post was stupid

As I'm writing this for copy&paste later it's 4 hours to deadline and I'll probably refrain from posting until then. And I'm sure I'm going to get shit for this. Massive amounts of shit but this to me is best play here. Wether or not we get a repeat of D1 is based on wether or not I get RB'ed or not as well as wether or not Vivax is shooting me and again... I'm perfectly aware of the fact that from your pov it could just be the other way around, it could be Vivax that's town who get's RBed and it boils down to wether I shoot vivax or not but it just doesn't matter: I'm either killing mafia here and now because you gave me a towntarget or I got RB'ed. I literally don't see a world in which Vivax is townVig with the knowledge that I am Drax myself. I'm giving him the 1% chance to be some other kind of stupid townie with some convoluted plan that fakeclaimed Vig to get out of the lynch but really that's it. He's not a townVig.
If you gave Vivax a towntarget he's going to hit that to show how he played along nice and friendly. If you're giving him a mafiatarget he's not shooting and claiming to be rb'ed himself hoping for double RB claim because I got RB'ed as well. There's no way in which this plan works out the way it's intended and I'm banking everything I have here on the fact that antagonizing everyone here is the right play indeed and HF wanted Vivax + me to deal with it ourselves from the get-go just looking at who'd actually have the balls and go ahead to do so... Yes I'm certainly a guy that plays with balls when rolling mafia but I do not think I'd antagonize every single guy in this game with this post and my actions tonight as mafia. I'd take the easy road as mafia, claim I shot who I was supposed to shoot while claiming I got RBed myself if the target is mafia, pulling through if the target is town. And yes you can say "but Toad, how can we know that isn't exactly what you're doing right now".

That's the reason for this post. I would not tell you about this. I would quietly giggle, not give you people the information that mafia!Toad has and just be done with it instead of posting this huge wall of a million reasons to get mad at me for doing my own thing.
Vivax on the other hand has been completly open on his ideas and reads throughout the night and while that might sound awesome because that's always cool right? It is incredibly anti-town. There's no reason whatsoever to openly explain to mafia wether or not you want to follow the plan, there's no reason whatsoever to openly explain in detail who you think is mafia during night if you're a fucking claimed vig. You're giving mafia info about wether or not they need to RB you while town might appreciate the infodump but you might as well do it later and just take the heat for a second. Vivax isn't doing that becase he knows he's not going to be RB'ed and he wants to play along to not get any heat.
///edited in later". I asked him something in that direction in the thread and ever since he's apparently realized it himself and is doing all this crappy "MAYBE I'M DOING THIS, MAYBE I'M DOING THAT. WHO KNOWS". That does not count, he only did that after I pointed it out to him...

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