EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LXI
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Shouldn't take more than 15 minutes per player, there is virtually no downside in doing it, and a huge upside (you might dodge a mislynch!) | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
You have been in the game. I just replaced in. It is completely unreasonable on your part to expect me to read bs analyze multiple filters over me expecting you to explain a single read on a single player that you have had days to develop. So I ask again. Why am I mafia? I don't understand why that is a difficult question to answer. Surely if you intend to kill me you must have a good reason for doing so. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
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On February 22 2015 01:56 Trfel wrote: While I will definitely take a look at lynch alternatives, I will not do so this very moment. Actually, I'd prefer to see where Palmar stands on this first, if he is willing? Though I can't fault him for spending all of today (normal 24-hour day) defending himself and not filter diving like crazy. But if Palmar doesn't mind, it could be effective if everyone keeps their lynch alternatives to themselves until he shares. It would help get a read on Palmar, which is critical at this point. Yeah no, this is not happening. Think about it logically. Who I think is mafia is technically quite irrelevant isn't it? My reads, based on at best loosely skimming end of days, filters, openings and other important things, are never (in theory) going to be as good as the reads of all the other townies in this game. Even if I suddenly became confirmed town, it'd be quite silly to trust me to lead the lynch, seeing as I'm working with far less information than everyone else in the game. I ask again, you say you wrote some case (that I haven't read). Summarize and/or link it here, in a single post, so I can see WHY you think I am mafia. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On February 22 2015 01:56 zlefin wrote: I don't want to spend the time. I'd already had this lynch chosen before you subbed into the game; and nothing Tere could've said would change it. This is such a monumentally stupid stance to take. If you follow through with this, and you happen to be town, you will be the most to blame of everyone in the game for this mislynch. You refuse to play the game because you're terrible (or maybe mafia? in which case I'm fine with it). | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On February 22 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote: I linked it to you when I first greeted you. Here it is. yeah already found it. It's massive and I will never be able to respond to every single post in it, I'm probably not going to read it. I haven't even read Tere's filter. But your summary is interesting. On February 22 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote: In summary, I think that you are mafia because Tere's reads showed a lack of critical thinking, Okay so a general statement. Can you show me one specific instance of exactly this? On February 22 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote: she had suspicious interactions with our Day 1 (mis)lynch Hier, I don't quite understand how this can be the case. Show me one specific instance (feel free to copy/paste some specific part from your case). On February 22 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote:her interactions with flipped mafia Silverarte were suspicious, Again, show me exactly one specific instance. On February 22 2015 02:08 Trfel wrote:and her Day 2 push to get me lynched was a complete departure from logic, so I don't see how town could do that. Actually it's usually townies who throw away logic, but ok. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
We'll discover the answer tomorrow! | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Here's the thing. When I posted the question list last night, I already had an answer in mind, but not a definite one, I was simply going to eliminate two people based on my interactions and some mild observations. Trfel is not the mafia here. He could be of course, but there are certain indicators he may not be. a) don't underestimate the fact that he has like a 20 page filter, by far the longest of anyone still in the game. (I would like to note here that Tere was actually decently posty). This is of course not a definite tell, but generally it's a very useful clue to see how much time people are putting into posting. b) Trfel is determined to lynch me as we started talking yesterday, but he is also extremely confident in his case to the point that he is willing to literally present it to me as broken down to my wishes because he is so confident I cannot pick holes in it, or will not pick holes in it. The other person I was going to eliminate is zlefin because of his blind stubbornness. But this was before I noticed an early post from him that's making me waffle a bit. You see he refuses to work with me, which of course can be mafia, but probably is a townie here. You see, the mafia KNOWS that this game won't be over after today, so basically treating me like crap means that it's more likely I'll treat him like trap or scumread him, leaving behind a confirmed townie who wanted to lynch him. He seems to not care at all what I think of his approach in the game, which could indicate town. The post that's making me insecure is this one: On February 21 2015 19:54 zlefin wrote: I've been well aware of that possibility. But I still think the Tere slot is the best lynch for today. If that lynch turns town, then I'll do a serious reconsideration of things. Because this is the biggest indication that he thinks the game might go on longer than just today. I don't quite know what to do with him at the moment. But when I wrote that "4 options" post last night, I had already decided to remove these two options, but I'm not quite ready to remove zlefin yet. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
The reason is that he gave me a stupid and monstrously difficult task to do (scumhunt through 60+ pages and convince at least 2 players to join me on a case I built on a game I just replaced in) and acted as if unless I did that I was just the default lynch. Unlike zlefin he didn't straight up refuse to reconsider, he just made damn sure he wouldn't have to. However, this all changes with the case on JJB. He literally went out of his way and did what I thought he wanted ME to do for me. This could of course be mafia powerplay, but when I think about how mafia would want to act here with basically a consensus lynch on me at the start of the day it's simply: "Don't rock the boat too much, get this mislynch, stay ahead until lylo". He sure has rocked the boat. As we speak (as opposed what I intendend) I actually think I should eliminate him as a possibility for mafia simply for the fact that he is not acting like one. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
The reason I did not want to eliminate him last night is that he responded similarly to Trfel, by actually summarizing the case. He even theorized as to why I was asking why people wanted to lynch me (although his conclusion was wrong). This is his theory: On February 22 2015 01:44 jarjarbinks wrote: I think Palmar is trying to get us to tell him our biggest points on him so he can properly defend himself without addressing every single thing that's been put on him. It makes sense, and I think it's fair considering the condition he started this game in. But in reality I was mostly trying to see who here had legitimate reasons for calling me mafia and who was basically trying to skirt along hoping to get the lynch on my quietly. Like I wanted to know who thought I was mafia and believed it and who thought I was mafia because it was easy. Unlike Trfel jjb never offered any continued interaction. He also doesn't have the gigantic filter and thread presence that makes Trfel much less likely to be mafia. This makes JJB a potential candidate here. | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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On February 22 2015 23:52 jarjarbinks wrote: Idk if your play really changes my view on you so far. It looks like you are trying to create doubt to get people to not lynch you. Well obviously I am. If people aren't doubting that I am the right lynch I am not doing my job. | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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1) he had a longer filter than all of you except Trfel 2) One of the main reasons you want to lynch me is that he apparently made a very much against the grain case on Trfel. Which faction in mafia is more likely to do outlandish stuff? But I guess it doesn't really matter. You guys seem already quite set in stone. | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Reasons: I have already explained why I am not going to consider voting Trfel and Shining. I just skimmed zlefin's filter and while shorter than jjb's, which is somewhat of a concern, my previous point stands. He is being blatantly anti-town and he doesn't care, this might actually indicate he's town. Also, his interactions with silver felt more natural. He tried to converse with silver whereas jjb mostly just talked about silver (and generally in the form of lists). In addition, jjb didn't really seem to try to follow up any investigation on me (as opposed to Trfel). I really, really hope you guys see what is happening here. I want to once again point out that combined we have a 13 page filter. I want to point out that making a case out of left field is NOT a mafia tell. Mafia generally always attempts to stay on good terms with everyone in the thread. So yeah, I got a shitty hand, I feel like I have given plenty of reasons for how I have acted, and how to proceed. If you do decide to lynch me, please do NOT consider my reads any better than anyone else's. In fact, you should probably read my filter, but make sure to cross-check whatever I posted against what you already think, because I have not read this game from the beginning like you guys. I have a good insight into this particular day, but what happened previously... well I wasn't there, you were. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
Given that it's a weekend, I felt like the best use of my time was to analyse what is right in front of me, instead of double checking ancient history. I actually feel like just from today I have gotten a fairly good grasp of what's going on. Obviously it's never going to be perfect because it's based on incomplete information. But yeah, I really think diving too much into filters that were created when I wasn't there would be a bad use of my limited time. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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You know I'm not mafia, you're just so certain because of biases created from Tere being wrong at some points this game. It's not a scumtell to be wrong. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
pretty shitty that you decided to ignore what I'm doing today in favor of what some other guy did before. gg gl. | ||
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Palmar
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I'm working with a much smaller set of information. good luck in lylo | ||
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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Palmar
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On February 26 2015 09:15 marvellosity wrote: mafia tough game trfel, you're gonna be wrong a lot, even when you're really good (and tbh you're pretty good already) This is true. Being right is the hardest skill to learn in mafia. It is also one of the least valuable skills on it's own. I hate it when people put so much stock into being wrong or right. It doesn't even matter. There are a ton of other skills in mafia that are both much easier to learn, and much more valuable for someone learning the game. I was right on JJB, it didn't do me much good. Being right is completely useless in mafia and is no saving grace for people when they make mistakes. You see, this discussion here: While tounge-in-cheek, it's completely backwards. Trfel is the one who should be accepting zlefin's apology, not the other way around. Sure, Trfel was wrong. Who cares! If zlefin and I had managed to put ourselves in a position similar to Trfel's, where we couldn't be lynched easily, then the game would have been auto-win for town. Because the only player that could be reasonably lynched was the mafia. On February 26 2015 09:02 zlefin wrote: I was right! that's the most important part to me, so I call that a win. This kind of thinking is how you never improve at mafia. I don't mind that, there are players who play for goals other than to actually improve at the game, but it's true. And it's not exactly an achievement to be right when there are only two options, one of which both the confirmed recently flipped townires townread, and the other one they both scumread. zlefin and Trfel were both wrong on my lynch, and Trfel was wrong on the final day. I think both of these, really, really don't matter. I think this because it's not easily fixable. There is no way you can go to someone and tell him. "Here, if you do x and y, you will be more right". zlefin did, however, make an atrocious mistake when he refused to play the game the day I got lynched. He refused to engage in playing the game and consider the possibility he may be wrong, thus not only being partly responsible for lynching me that day (remember, if he had been wrong at that point, we'd have won, because shining and I were trying to kill JJB). The good news is that, this is a mistake that is very, very easily fixable. All zlefin has to do is next time when presented with an obvious lynch, is to say "well, we got this obvious lynch, so how about I use the time to review and interact, just in case I'm wrong". Notice how unlike the "be more right", this is something that can be easily fixed. I want to make sure you guys understand I'm not flaming at all. I did exactly the same thing in one of my early games of mafia. I sheeped a bunch of dead townies and lynched the "town consensus" instead of looking at the situation critically and threw a game when it would have been easy to figure out that something was up if I had spent the time working on it. As for Trfel, I couldn't find you ever looking at it this way, but you had to have thought somewhere "why me? Why was shining shot and I was left alive? I'm universally townread, so what's the problem here?". It's important to review things in lylo, and for the most part mafia do the logical things. They shoot townies who are right. Obviously, unlike the point I made with zlefin, this is a much harder thing to fix. You went with your gut over the analysis by shining and I from the day before, and that's okay. I know that you will learn from this, and your methodology wasn't wrong, it was simply incomplete and thus your conclusion was wrong, which is always going to be a problem as long as you play mafia. If it wasn't, the game wouldn't be any fun, would it? I also want to commend you on the job you did making yourself unlynchable. That was very good, and is both a very good skill to master and much easier to apply consistently than being right. Don't beat yourself up over this game, everyone is wrong once in a while. Shining did an excellent job on reevaluating a situation. Not only did he take a situation that at face value looked like an automatic lynch, spend the time to reevaluate and tried to actively work to solve the game, he actually reached the correct conclusion too, which is of course just fantastic. He played the day very, very well, the only knock on him is that he was right, but did not manage to convince either Trfel or zlefin to follow him. But the fact that he didn't manage to was of course only partly on him, and partly on the others, and partly on me for not being townier than I was. Everyone can always improve. Shining also became such a threat to the mafia that JJB decided to shoot him in the night, it's always a good thing to be shot as a townie. It means the mafia for some reason does not want to deal with you. Anyway, it was fun, again, I'm sorry for not being able to move the wagon off me, all I had to do was convince either zlefin or Trfel and we'd have won the game. I feel like I didn't have the time to find my angle to convincing them, and maybe I spent too much time scumhunting instead of just defending myself. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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