On February 17 2015 06:24 Tere wrote: xpost above, natch.
What does this mean? Cross-post above, naturally? If so, can someone please explain this to the weak-minded Trfel?
On February 17 2015 10:55 rsoultin wrote:
On February 17 2015 10:53 Trfel wrote: Yay, Trfel isn't alone any more :D
Multitasking is fine, it's not like there is much activity here.
What do you think about what I just posted about two things to look for for scum behavior over the past day (not scumhunting after the Hier lynch seemed set, and showing discontent with the Hier lynch)? Am I right in thinking those things, or not?
Also, what do you think of my alignment at the moment?
Think those are very good metrics and I doubt you bring them up when they paint you scum xP You may be that crafty, but I don't think so. You're right that I've always seen you waffle on votes at EoD lol.
Rsoultin, I'm almost thinking that you are insulting me here
Lol, believe me, it's not. I actually don't think it's a flattering thing to be good at deceiving people Or for people to believe you're good at it.
Do you disagree with my gut reads?
I don't suspect zlefin. However, basically everyone else seems to. My read on zlefin is reasonably old at this point, so I definitely need to take another look.
On February 17 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: Admittedly I've been lurking for the last hour or so, to see what happens when I've stepped back from the thread.
On February 17 2015 07:10 rsoultin wrote: Admittedly I've been lurking for the last hour or so, to see what happens when I've stepped back from the thread.
Wait, why would you do this?
To get perspective and see how they played when I wasn't there, honestly. One of the biggest problems I have is getting too locked in to certain thoughts. My best reads usually come when I'm least involved lol ><
Hm, that's a good idea. But I'm right, and everyone else is wrong, I don't want to let them run the thread
Thanks very much to responding to my comments. I like that response a lot. It seems that a lot of my suspicions were just me misinterpreting something that you said. There is a reason that I wasn't pushing for your lynch, but was instead voicing some thoughts.
What's with all of the sheeping this game... first Hier, now zlefin. Maybe it's just me exaggerating it...
No, rsoultin, I'm not mocking you. I really am extremely opinionated. And I enjoy arguments, so when I play mafia I have to be careful to avoid arguing for the sake of arguing (I've almost taken some really strange stances just so that I could argue something original....).
On February 17 2015 11:41 rsoultin wrote: There aren't too many varied opinions this game, but I fail to see the point you're driving at, trfel?
Sorry, I'm just venting general frustrations. No point really. But the game feels like a really easy environment for scum to hide and pick on easy targets.
So many little reasons to be suspicious of Tere, but little things add up.... I'm going to be filter diving. Rsoultin, why do you feel that Tere is town? + Show Spoiler +
And no, I'm not necessarily saying that Tere is scum, but just that I will look into it. There's a big difference, people always seem to misunderstand me when I say I'm investigating someone.
On February 17 2015 12:01 Silverarte wrote: I'm finally back from work! Catching up now. In the meantime (while I go through pages and figure out what all I missed) any questions for me in the meantime?
Reads in general would be nice. Specifically, what do you think of Tere, and why?
On February 17 2015 12:15 Silverarte wrote: Sure, I'll get right on that.
Also, since I don't think I've gotten there yet in the pages (only on page 17) what did you end up thinking of The Shining this round?
I decided he wasn't a good Day 1 lynch and haven't put all that much thought into it since. I did like his response to my suspicions of him. Overall, I can definitely see how is play is town motivated, though he certainly isn't cleared yet.
On February 17 2015 12:25 Silverarte wrote: Hmm. Alright. I'm almost done catching up on the reading (five more pages to go? Six?) I'm going to start filter diving, so it's going to take me a bit. So I'm here! Just putting thoughts together.
Don't worry about it, I'm by far the slowest player here. Still typing up my thoughts on Tere. I'm starting to wonder if I am going insane, once I finish it would be nice if a few people could give me a sanity check.
On February 17 2015 02:35 Tere wrote: Experience copy / paste from coaching board.
"I'm not really a complete newbie - just new to Team Liquid. I've probably played in 20 - 25 timed forum mafia games in the past 4 - 5 years, and read about the same number. However, quite a few of those have been on very casual sites where reading and analysis really isn't a thing, hence the shift (I hope) to a site that plays a little more seriously."
So I've played quite a few games, but I'm not always the greatest case maker, and I tend to rely on tonal reads probably more than I ought, if I'm honest.
Tere is clearly experienced in the general workings of a mafia game, even if she is new to this site. Thus, I expect her to show a reasonable ability to make reads and judgments. In addition, Tere has shown to be experienced with mafia acronyms, so I expect to see a high standard of play from her.
The first main thing that Tere posted was her reasons for voting for Hier. This is a very easy post to make, and it doesn't make sense to vote for Hier before fully analyzing all of the people in the thread. + Show Spoiler +
On February 17 2015 00:17 Tere wrote: So, carried over from vote thread ##Vote Hier
(FWIW, I do quite a lot of tone reading as part of my analysis)
I dislike Hier's Bridges concept intensely, I consider it anti town in structure in that it forces players down an automated line of thought, discourages rereading thinking, and provides plenty of room for scum to hide in. Trfel, I think, posted a decent summary of his objections which I found myself nodding along to. However, this isn't why I am voting for Hier as scum. It's not unknown for town newbies to post schemes to catch mafia, and, while not town helpful, I don't think the plan itself alone would be alignment indicative. The next few posts defending the plan also read OK, although a little "my way or the highway".
On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote: Trfel: It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.
I really don't like that Hier says they will always abide by the model's rules, when pretty much everyone has come out and said they don't like it. Could be a stubborn townie, could be scum looking for an easy way to lay their votes down.
It really feels as though Hier has not much to say apart from pushing this flawed model.
I was writing this as ElyAs was posting, and see their point about the use of language to confuse. Perhaps Hier's style is just normally swallowed a thesaurus regardless of alignment, but I can help but see posts like below as intentionally confusing. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/476143-newbie-mini-mafia-lxi?page=15#285
Hier, if you are town, you need, I think, to accept the Bridges model ain't happening, and help town to find some counterwagons
Back with thoughts on everyone else once I've gone back and done some filter diving.
The last line of this post initially stands out. If she intends to filter dive everyone in the thread to make reads on them (which is obviously what she did), why would she vote for Hier before she finished filter diving? I know she already read the thread by the time she posted this case, but I would still think that she would wait to fully analyze everyone before voting. It's not like this is a pressure vote, since Hier was already significantly ahead in the voting, both by numbers and the thread presence of the people voting for him. The read itself isn't that unrealistic, but is weirdly stated. Tere's analysis seems to completely ignore the possibility of Hier being a frustrated townie. I also note that scumreading Hier at this point (well, at most points throughout Day 1) is a really easy thing to do. Meanwhile, Tere's reasoning mostly involves copying points that have already been made.
Tere's behavior towards Hier has been strange and seemingly contradictory. + Show Spoiler +
On February 17 2015 00:21 Tere wrote: I agree Hier could be town and just locked on their pet model, and agree we need to look for some counterwagons. No-one yet is really pinging for me yet though :/
I need to see some actual helpful stuff from them before I shift my vote though.
(BTW, while I think about it, I won't be here at round end almost certainly, I needed to be up at 4.30 this morning to take my husband to the station, and while I will try and be about, I might flake out. I'm a despiser of last minute vote shenannies anyway, I think they are helpful to town almost never IMO)
Right after being confident enough to vote for Hier, before fully analyzing the other people in the thread, Tere expresses doubt over lynching Hier. She also says that we should look for counterwagons. Let's see if she makes any effort to follow through on this.
On February 17 2015 00:38 Tere wrote: I liked the pushing of rso to be a little less hard on the newbies.
My point is that I feel it is reasonably safe to assume that Tere agreed with my reasoning that rsoultin should be nice about pushing Hier to encourage him to try and defend himself and not quit playing the game. However, this is at odds with the tone that Tere took when conversing with Hier (quotes supporting this will follow).
On February 17 2015 01:37 Trfel wrote: I guess it's probably best that I post this now. My thoughts on why lynching Hier isn't necessarily the best idea.
Hier opened up the game by posting his Bridges method. By advocating something with direct impact on all players, people naturally responded, and it turned out that the responses were mostly negative. It seems that this immediately frustrated Hier a bit, judging by the tone of his first post after that. (link if you want it)
From there, Hier is bombarded with questions. This seems to frustrate him more, and he doesn't answer all of them. One answer that he does provide is that he has no reads, which obviously leads to a whole new wave of questions.
Hier posts a scumread on rsoultin. (link if you want it) This read actually isn't all that bad. While rsoultin and I have already discussed why the points addressed here make perfect sense, from Hier's perspective, it doesn't make sense. It is normally expected that someone explains their pushes, not asks everyone else for their opinions.
Regardless of Hier's alignment, he is clearly frustrated. This leads to his posts being more sarcastic and less responsive, leading to people scumreading him even more (I don't need to post links to posts where Hier is clearly frustrated, it is too obvious). This also would discourage Hier from providing reads.
That's why I can see Hier's play coming from a townie. His play hasn't been good, but it isn't unreasonable. That said, if he doesn't do anything to change his play in the near future, he could very well be the best lynch for the day (at least, as I see it).
Thoughts?
What I keep coming back to is that surely a scum coach and a scum QT would have persuaded Hier to drop the Bridges idea altogether, and / or nipped it in the bud if he posted it without consultation. Hier isn't being town helpful at the moment, but stubbornly sticking your neck out like Hier has isn't that helpful for a scum wincon..
I could be persuaded to another wagon, for sure. Just not sure I am seeing an obvious one. zlefin's filter also doesn't look appealing to me, but if this is their very first game that's equally a possibility for that.
Here, I voiced what I think is the best defense for Hier. Since Tere has voted for Hier, and still expressed doubts and a desire to look for counterwagons, she ought to be interested in what I have to say (especially since she later said that she focused on conversing with her townreads, and at the time I was one of her townreads). Tere's quoted post does show some hesitance to lynch Hier, however her reasoning expressed in this post was later shown to be wrong (note that I am not saying that Tere expressed wrong opinions and is therefore mafia, the two are unrelated) My point is, Tere avoided the point of my post, and addressed it while avoiding answering it.
Hier finally comes back. Here are some of the posts that Tere makes towards Hier. Despite seeming open to other wagons and agreeing that it is wise to go soft when pushing someone in a newbie game, her posts seem to say the opposite.
On February 17 2015 05:01 Tere wrote: Case plz.
On February 17 2015 05:06 Tere wrote: So, the only person you aren't scum reading is ElyAs, based on that, right?
On February 17 2015 05:06 Tere wrote: Let's make that cases plz
On February 17 2015 05:14 Tere wrote: I'm also not liking the ad hominem on rsoultin. It makes you look petty and isn't helping your case any.
And after this initial bombardment, then some other dismissive posts,
On February 17 2015 05:59 Tere wrote: It's not my neck on the chopping block.
I guess Hier doesn't want to defend himself
And Hier is supposed to enthusiastically answer Tere's questions? I also agree with jarjarbinks here, it doesn't hurt at all for Tere to answer Hier's questions first. There is no reason not to.
On February 17 2015 05:59 Tere wrote: It's not my neck on the chopping block.
I guess Hier doesn't want to defend himself
This is a team game. It makes no difference if I get lynched, so long as town wins. As of right now you are formally ignoring my request.
I guess that's just like the several questions you've ignored and the misrepresentations you've made of several people's reads. Oh, wait....
In addition, Tere doesn't seem to be affected at all by the lynch. This is strange, given that she was the main player conversing with Hier in the hours preceding the lynch. Note that she gave only a token effort for finding counterwagons (looked at ElyAs upon my suggestion, glanced at Silverarte's filter). More on this next.
Hier's attitute this game has seemed extremely relaxed. Ironically, it's so relaxed that I find it suspicious. (This sounds weird, I get it, just read the spoiler...) + Show Spoiler +
I realize in advance that this is controversial. Let me first state that being nervous is normally considered to be a mafia trait, and being relaxed is normally considered to be a town trait. But this is by no means a hard rule, or even all that accurate. For example, Mimeux was about as nervous as possible and Tere is about as relaxed as possible, and they have the exact same role. It could just be Tere's personality, but I have a lot of trouble seeing how town!Tere would be this relaxed in this game. I have several reasons for this. First, it's a newbie game, and newbie games tend to be scum-favored. I know that the last newbie game I played in was a nightmare, and while this one seems better than last, it's definitely among the harder games I have played in. Second, Tere expressed doubts about the Hier lynch going in to it. Why would a townie who isn't completely confident about a lynch go into it completely relaxed? I know that I was pretty nervous about it (even though I wasn't online at the time, I was thinking about it). Tere's carefree attitude doesn't fit in a game with difficult reads, an uncertain Day 1 lynch target, and the eventual mislynch. With a Day 1 mislynch and no great followup, town should be anxious, not relaxed. Tere's relaxed attitude seems to come from a confident scum who has been quickly townread and is watching town collapse.
Tere does not seem to separate player skill from her reads. + Show Spoiler +
On February 17 2015 01:29 Tere wrote: I think based on all of that,
Known town or towny Tere Trfel rsoultin
Don't lynch today The Shining ElyAs Silverarte jarjarbinks
Lynchpool zlefin Hier
Note that the three most experienced players are all in the most town category, and the one first time player is at the bottom. It's easy to identify if someone is playing well or not. I could go on all day saying if reads are good or bad. But that serves no purpose, since bad doesn't mean mafia, and good doesn't mean town. With Tere's experience and confidence, she ought to know this. However, calling bad play mafia is easy, and calling good play town is easy. An interesting note is that I got the opposite impression from zlefin's filter. While if his lack of experience is ignored, his play is obviously sub-standard, to me his posts seemed genuine and he is trying, and I fail to scum motivation for them. Tere didn't pick up on this at all. This is especially strange, since she claims to get most of her reads through tone.
Tere stated several times that we should look for a counterwagon to Hier, but barely put any effort into actually doing this. + Show Spoiler +
I touched on this already. Not much to say. While it is still a bit suspicious, given the way that Hier was responding towards the later part of the day, I can understand.
To clarify my final stance on Tere, I'm not really sure. I'm hesitant to townread her. I think I put her at a slight scum lean, I wouldn't go so far as to call it a scumread yet. That said, I generally have no idea how strong or weak my own cases are (again, I can find evidence for this, or rsoultin can probably verify this). So here are my thoughts, I'd really like to hear people's response to this.
Finally, a few thoughts to Tere (if she is in fact town). + Show Spoiler +
Tere. You're obviously a capable mafia player, and you have been entertaining and enthusiastic so far. I like this a lot. But for all of your experience, your reads seem simple, as if you are stating reads that feel natural and easy, as opposed to actually trying to determine someone's alignment, which is much harder. I hope you can see where I am coming from. At this point, it's not paranoia, I am voicing suspicions and I expect you to take me seriously and answer them.
Anyway, I'm tired now. I'll keep checking up on the thread, but I doubt I will seriously investigate anything else before I go to sleep. I hope you can understand. I'll get to everything else tomorrow. Be warned that I sometimes get carried away playing mafia, so it's also possible that I stay up until something like 5 AM analyzing everything to death.
Slightly unrelated, I would appreciate thoughts on the formatting of my previous post. Is that more understandable and easier to read than a wall of text version?
First of all, thanks a bunch to both of you for reading and responding. Much appreciated.
Rsoultin, which parts of zlefin's play do you have problems with? I noticed that Tere posted her scumread of zlefin fairly early on, and this time happens to be exactly at the end of Page 1 in zlefin's filter. So over half of zlefin's play, presumably including the part that you found suspicious if it was near EOD, was after Tere made this read.
Silverarte, by no means do I advocate lynching Tere immediately. I want to see how people respond, and in particular, I want to see Tere's response. Of course I will look in to other lynch options for tomorrow, but I don't feel like doing so at this very moment.
Ah, just realized I forgot to add something to my case. It's not very important, but I'll tack it on here anyway.
On February 17 2015 09:31 Tere wrote: It would be awesome if the non Euros posted some reflections (and insomniac Euros).
The Shining, Silverarte, zlefin and ElyAs, I'd particularly like to hear from you. (Yes I know ElyAs is in France. Shut up).
Actually, I'd like to know everyone's top two scum picks right now. Cases would be awesome
Sleep tight! xx
Tere didn't post her own reflections, in fact she seemed to avoid doing so. Why does she want everyone to respond and post their top two scumreads, without doing anything herself? I understand what rsoultin did early in the game, when nothing was happening, it made sense. But now, if you want to get discussion and reads, the best way to do it is to go investigate people and post your findings. Not to ask for reads without sharing your own insight.
I'm not one to really post pictures or gifs to keep the thread entertained. I'm still working on my serious play enough that my focus is on playing the game, not adding extra humor. That said, I'll throw in a joke when I see an opportunity.
On February 17 2015 14:05 rsoultin wrote: So, like, I totes have quotes and stuff, but I'm kinda tipsy so I'm not gonna inflict that on y'all right now lol >< you don't mind if it waits till morning, do you, truffle wuffle?
Eh, I'm curious, but that makes sense. Especially seeing how my late night posting went last night. Can you at least provide hints as to what you are thinking about? My curiosity has been piqued...
On February 17 2015 14:05 rsoultin wrote: So, like, I totes have quotes and stuff, but I'm kinda tipsy so I'm not gonna inflict that on y'all right now lol >< you don't mind if it waits till morning, do you, truffle wuffle?
Eh, I'm curious, but that makes sense. Especially seeing how my late night posting went last night. Can you at least provide hints as to what you are thinking about? My curiosity has been piqued...
He was asking weird questions imo...about who he should be voting for even though he thought that hier was scum. for information purposes or somethin' Then went all quiet after I said just vote for his scumread since there were 2hrs left. Something else about not wanting to change votes a lot.
Seemed very concerned about perception there at the end and his vote on Hier was very half-hearted, dunnae. Yup. I think I commented on it in my filter actually.
Ah, I see. That makes sense. I'll definitely take a look at that tomorrow, looking forward to your thoughts. Most people seem to be suspicious of zlefin, so that's the next priority for me.
Side note, why do my useless posts always top the page..... oh well.
On February 17 2015 22:20 zlefin wrote: I'm disliking that Tere keeps asking people for their top two kills without having said her own. Feels like probing for information to join a wagon without committing; I think someone else already noted this as a potential issue, but I forget who, and it's not where I thought it would be (in trfels analysis post).
I commented on it a few posts later.
I refuse to provide my top two kills until Tere actually does some scumhunting of her own. Scumhunting is one thing, but I am not going to scumhunt in the manner someone else tells me to for no reason.
Why do I think that Tere wants everyone to provide their top two kills? Maybe to know where everyone stands, maybe to choose the best night kill for the mafia. Either way, you can use someone's filter to mostly figure out where everyone stands, and I would prefer the emphasis to be on cases and scumhunting than making everyone share their top kills.
Note that the last time I saw someone make everyone share their top scumreads was when I was shadowing Artanis[Xp] in Imperial Mafia. He was mafia.
EPT
Or for people to believe you're good at it.
