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On January 26 2015 01:29 Damdred wrote:
No it was an auto lynch we basically threw every vote in the game on lm and most people ark.
Before the last 30 minutes we got no information, now we have information from that lynch, and the sentence about my Poe doesn't invalidate it at all.
Dp has been really towny, he made sense with Scum lm but not with many others.
Because Scum want mylo not to lynch breshke.
Which brings me back to LM's paranoia -_- Bresh mentioned it, too. This idea that the only possible scumteam DP could be on is with trfel/lm. geript himself said that DP is probably not going to do that as scum.
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On January 26 2015 01:40 Damdred wrote:
Of course I set up my Poe because I was convinced breshke is Scum here and I still am especially with how breshke came into night phase, Geript right it was really funky.
And I love this you just make me more sure by every post by pulling everything you can that I'm Scum.
LM was acting towny in hindsight more so than breshke. So yes I switches off. And your total reluctance to not only not switch to breshke but not switch to ANYONE is pretty telling.
Breshke should have been what, cursing everyone out?
He was acting more towny in hindsight than breshke which is why you changed your lynch vote? Again you are directly contradicting what you said when people asked why you changed your vote.
Why should it matter in your world of an rsoul/bresh scumteam if I don't switch to anyone else? Lol, you've seen me play scum, Damdred. I do not suffer from the inability to reason out how pretty much anyone could be scum (which may be my overall problem with scumhunting in general, being too paranoid).
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On January 26 2015 01:41 Damdred wrote:
I'm sorry if dp was Scum he would kill Geript over GB unless they were Scum together.
How is this not WIFOM? Seriously -_-
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On January 26 2015 01:50 Damdred wrote:
It's not because dp respects Geript and knows Geript has the greatest chance to catch him over new 's. Now if you wanted to you could talk about a Geript dp team, which you have never done even though you say you reason out every person etc.
Lm was acting towny, I don't like ark lynched which is what we were doing. Geript found good point, dp found another it was time to go.
I've thought of a geript/DP scumteam, and maybe it's just me, but that's a ton of interaction and blatant ties to one another that if one is lynched would make it ridic easy to find the other. Just doesn't seem that viable to me. Possible, but unlikely. I find it more likely that one pocketed the other and hid behind the WIFOM of not NKing their pocketed town than I do the idea of running the table together.
Damdred, BS meter. What you're saying now simply does not line up with what you said when you first switched your vote.
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On January 26 2015 01:58 Damdred wrote:
Thought progresses change and I'm not reading my own filter to make it line up. Geript made a good point, dp did as well I switched. I have enough doubts especially this game to move.
-_-
A dead phone/time and having you and dp in a null list with lm as scum are good points?
I'm not saying they're terrible ones, but they're so groundbreaking that they merit a complete reversal in your reads?
You say you think bresh and LM both can be good lynches while simultaneously setting up a poe that makes sense only with an LM town flip, and now try to say that LM was obviously town and that was why you switched?
Either you're experiencing an early case of alzheimers where you can't remember something as simple as what you were thinking less than 24 hours ago, or it seems a hell of a lot like you're capitalizing on this town flip as much as you can.
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On January 26 2015 02:08 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2015 16:47 geript wrote:On January 25 2015 16:23 jarjarbinks wrote:
Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time.
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either:
You guys were wrong
OR
My model sucked some big balls.
I went with my model sucked some big balls.
I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people):
Me: 43% mafia... lol
Breshke: 41% mafia
Rsoultin: 31% mafia
Shining: 30% mafia
Everyone else: 29% mafia
This is without a +/- 3% buffer.
But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. Ya well its obviously due to change. But I guess you know that. There's two parts to it. First part If you vote for the lynched townie, it causes a 2% increase, if the lynched townie voted for you, it gives you a 23% increase. If the guy that got killed at night voted for you, then that's a 16% increase. Second part: You have to factor in wagons and strength of the votes. So if you look back to the waffle lynch, there was 8 people on waffle, 2 on GB, and 2 on me. All the people who voted waffle get a 2% increase to start with. But since there was such a big wagon on Waffle, I used a factor of (4/12) and multiplied it by the 2% to get the actual increase. I found 4/12 by subtracting 8/12 from 1. I did this because on wagons mafia has less of an incentive to park their vote on the lynched guy. So for day 1 all the waffle voters only got about .7% increase because of their waffle vote. The less experienced/good the town team is, the less you can use the model. It also helps to have more players in the game.
JJB, help me out here.
I'm OMGUSing Damdred. Are my points valid or am I being a stubborn ass again? >< I know you're town, and I respect your intelligence, so can you double-check me real quick?
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EBWOP:
o.0 can you tell me where you got your percentage increases from? the 23% and 16%? just as a point of curiosity
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On January 26 2015 02:14 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2015 02:12 rsoultin wrote:On January 26 2015 02:08 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 25 2015 16:47 geript wrote:On January 25 2015 16:23 jarjarbinks wrote:
Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time.
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either:
You guys were wrong
OR
My model sucked some big balls.
I went with my model sucked some big balls.
I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people):
Me: 43% mafia... lol
Breshke: 41% mafia
Rsoultin: 31% mafia
Shining: 30% mafia
Everyone else: 29% mafia
This is without a +/- 3% buffer.
But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol So how much percentage points do everyone get? I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train. Ya well its obviously due to change. But I guess you know that. There's two parts to it. First part If you vote for the lynched townie, it causes a 2% increase, if the lynched townie voted for you, it gives you a 23% increase. If the guy that got killed at night voted for you, then that's a 16% increase. Second part: You have to factor in wagons and strength of the votes. So if you look back to the waffle lynch, there was 8 people on waffle, 2 on GB, and 2 on me. All the people who voted waffle get a 2% increase to start with. But since there was such a big wagon on Waffle, I used a factor of (4/12) and multiplied it by the 2% to get the actual increase. I found 4/12 by subtracting 8/12 from 1. I did this because on wagons mafia has less of an incentive to park their vote on the lynched guy. So for day 1 all the waffle voters only got about .7% increase because of their waffle vote. The less experienced/good the town team is, the less you can use the model. It also helps to have more players in the game. JJB, help me out here. I'm OMGUSing Damdred. Are my points valid or am I being a stubborn ass again? >< I know you're town, and I respect your intelligence, so can you double-check me real quick? Hold on I'm catching up. I'm assuming you have an argument on him in this thread somewhere?
I do. It's basically a running argument with him at this point -_- But yeah, I quoted his vote switch to Bresh and stuff and you can see what he's been saying since Night 3 started. Just be my sanity check if you don't mind. Thanks a bunch, bro.
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On January 26 2015 02:16 Damdred wrote:
Obviously when I set up my Poe I was convinced lm was flipping town, which was after voting had closed btw.
Theresistance to the flip makes it highly likely if not assured that breshke is Scum.
Also lm said he was town right as voting ended and it was believable
The "resistance" to the flip was me.
And saying that DP being there at EoD made him town, that you were probably wrong on geript, that you could be wrong on LM and just tunneled, that you're 95% sure on Shining, all before the flip while saying both LM and Bresh were good lynches was not setting up your PoE before the flip?
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On January 26 2015 02:34 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2015 02:15 rsoultin wrote:
EBWOP:
o.0 can you tell me where you got your percentage increases from? the 23% and 16%? just as a point of curiosity Regressions. Took old games and found the change in %'s from what the %'s should have been if the person voting for town was killed etc. And that 23% is beyond what the maximum % increase would be. The highest it would be in this game is 23% times 12/13 which is 21.2%. That would be if the lynched guy parks a solo vote on someone he thinks is mafia while no one else believes him. Probably will never happen. Sorry if its confusing. It would be easier to explain it if you saw the model. Honestly I feel like my model is useless in this game though. It's not going to help us find scum.
:/ Eh, I'm sure the more games you add to it and the more we play in general so you can tweak it, the better it will get. But the human element is always gonna make it imperfect.
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On January 26 2015 02:33 Damdred wrote:
I've been saying I'm sure on shining for a long time now. That isn't changing, unless things happen obviously.
I said well before flip I suck at reading Geript, so that's no change. Not sure where you are going with this, the way lm acted right at the end really showed town.
Mhm. So tell me, then, why being around at EoD makes DP town unless LM is town. That statement came well before your bresh vote while you were still on LM. Oh, and while you were still saying both were good lynches. ^^
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On January 26 2015 02:40 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2015 06:43 Damdred wrote:
I'm wrong more often than not, LM is a lower activity player. And I could be tunneled, and i'm probably wrong about Geript. I think this quote shows when/why he began switching.
Yeah, that was his explanation for the vote.
Did you read the quotes I posted and my comments? That's what I need the sanity check on.
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On January 26 2015 02:51 jarjarbinks wrote:
Idk rsoultin. Damdred was the first Breshke vote. He didn't need to do that. I could see him seeing that DP had some good points and that LM wasn't mafia and decide to switch to the other guy people were suspicious of. Half survival half change in point of view. Town wants to survive too, not just mafia.
I guess if you think that breshke is town, then it would make more sense if Damdred was mafia to switch to him. There was the beginnings of a train on Damdred. The thing I worry about most with Damdred is the GB kill day 1. I could see a team with damdred/trf on it wanting GB dead. But I could see a team of Trf + two people who haven't played with geript and DP much wanting GB dead as well...
The more posts I get from Dp and Geript, the more I think they are town. Unless they are both mafia, they are 100% sure each other is town too. I might park my ideas that they are town for a while, unless something crazy happens.
I think the NK will help us get a better idea of what is going on.
Honestly I've gotten more suspicious of you (Rsoultin) as the game has gone on. The problem is I can see the way you are acting being due to u as a person, which makes me hesitate on it. I could see you having this strong/long a filter with you as mafia though...
Shining is probably the biggest question mark in my mind.
Fair enough. I may just be OMGUSing Damdred.
Lol, you're always suspicious of me when you have nowhere better to park your suspicion; it's okay. Wrong but okay. So you're in the rsoul hard-bussed trfel camp, too, hm?
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On January 26 2015 02:54 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2015 02:46 rsoultin wrote:On January 26 2015 02:40 jarjarbinks wrote:On January 25 2015 06:43 Damdred wrote:
I'm wrong more often than not, LM is a lower activity player. And I could be tunneled, and i'm probably wrong about Geript. I think this quote shows when/why he began switching. Yeah, that was his explanation for the vote. Did you read the quotes I posted and my comments? That's what I need the sanity check on. Ya idk your argument didn't really convince me of anything. You have quotes there, but idk if they are as implicating as you believe they are. I'll go double check.
Please @.@.
My argument is his quotes read like he already knew that LM would flip town before he flipped, even before he voted LM, and he was setting up his PoE to point fingers at players before the flip.
It could be straight up OMGUS paranoia, which is why I need a sanity check.
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On January 26 2015 03:15 jarjarbinks wrote:
Sorry computer issues.
Double check has me seeing confusion on the Damdred flip, but I didn't get the same end result as you did. It is weird to me that Damdred would flip and still say that LM is a good lynch when LM still had a ton of traction. I think that if he knew that LM would flip town, as soon as he flipped to Breshke he would have not said anything later about LM being a good lynch. I would think he would want it to look like he realized LM was town from DP's argument and switched on to someone else because of the argument so he's slightly cleared of suspicion when LM flips town.
Actually the hard-bus trfel part of the whole rsoultin=mafia thing makes little sense to me. I don't see you taking such a big risk for no reason. The only reason why I felt you were suspicious was because some of your play has paralleled his (lol). It seemed to me like Trfel had already planned to defend me and get on LM. Like pretty much when the game started. He always defended me from the get go and went after LM. Before I thought that meant he was bussing LM, obviously that wasn't the case. You have done the same thing in this game. The reason why I didn't feel like it was worth bringing up is because I saw that you as a person would probably defend me in the game and that LM was a relatively easy guy to take for mafia until EOD yesterday. Your resistance to change EOD yesterday does follow Trfel's planned actions. It could be coincidence though, but I guess I am allowed to be suspicious lol
Yeah, you're allowed, lol.
Eh, in my paranoid world scum can make mistakes, and his saying that DP was town for being here at EoD presupposes the main wagon is town...before Damdred decided that Breshke was his lynch and not LM. A scum DP would want to be around to try to move the wagon off scum, so by saying him being here at EoD makes him town makes it seem like Damdred already knew how LM was going to flip. Is my logic flawed?
I also can see getting an equal amount of flak from everyone in this game if I chose to switch to Bresh last minute and Bresh was also town. And then it would be LM and me Damdred was trying to push xP
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On January 26 2015 03:37 jarjarbinks wrote:
I could definitely see that.
How does that statement presuppose that the main wagon is town? I missed that part.
In your mind, You me bresh shining are all town. Is that still true? That would make dp or geript 1 mafia and damdred the other?
Okay, so this is my thought process.
Damdred and I are on LM.
Damdred makes a comment that the simple fact that DP being in the thread at EoD makes him town 100%.
- Possibility 1. LM is town. DP is therefore town because he is trying to move a lynch off a town. Scum wouldn't care enough to wake up early to stop a mislynch.
- Possibility 2. LM is scum. DP is therefore either town believing LM is town and trying to stop a mislynch, or scum trying to save his scum buddy.
Damdred then decides to switch to Breshke and says that both LM and Breshke are good lynches after his vote change.
So, why is DP town 100% unless Damdred knew that LM was town? And if Damdred was so certain LM was town, why was he voting him? Why did he say both were good lynches later?
^ In my paranoid world, this makes it highly likely Damdred is scum, knew exactly how LM would flip, and set up his PoE to jam a Breshke lynch through. He's shown no interest in even considering other possibilities.
As far as Shining and Bresh are concerned, I'm not sure. I thought they were town before and I don't see anything new since then to change that...do you find DP and geript's points as damning as they do on Bresh? Maybe I'm missing something.
I guess it could be Shining as a scum partner.
I don't think geript is scum either, I really don't. I don't see that battle between geript and Damdred Day 3 being easy to pull off as scum together.
DP...I just really need to look at him closer. I never understood why he was townreading LM so early. It is very convenient for him that everyone aligned him with a scum LM and he's been by and large ignored as a potential scum partner for anyone else. I just need to approach him with an open mind, which is something I don't have regarding him right now ><
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On January 26 2015 03:37 Damdred wrote:
Most of the time Scum doesn't show to inconvenient deadlines. Your argument comes from what if lm flipped Scum it seems rather than flipping town.
DP woke up when an lm lynch was basically 100% town cares that much. It's town favored, arguing otherwise is silly. It's like Euro players staying up to 4 am to help at deadline that's a town
The point is not that your logic is wrong, Damdred. The point is that it was only right if LM was town, and you made your point while still on the LM lynch where you were supposedly scumreading him. You could say that at that point you thought LM was town and were just looking for a counterwagon, however you then later said that LM and Breshke were both good lynches.
So if you had any doubt on the alignment of LM where he may be scum, DP being in the thread at EoD with LM as the main wagon was not alignment indicative.
This looks like TMI to me in a very bad way.
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On January 26 2015 04:01 jarjarbinks wrote:
hmm ya I don't know. I think what happened here is that damdred pointed out an observation he has seen in the game that isn't 100% true and you not only called him out for it you also took it to the farthest conclusion.
When I read that I'm thinking he's not basing that observation on the vote/flip of LM. Its more on the basic knowledge of scum vs town making deadlines.
I could see myself as mafia waking up if I was pushing one of the wagons and wanted to see if it worked. I could also see myself as town doing the same thing if I thought I was right. That means I disagree with his statement in defining DP as town.
It helps that I know I'm town and I know that Damdred isn't stupid, I'll admit -_- If Damdred is scum which I think is highly likely, then I am scared of the way thread sentiment is going regarding Breshke.
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On January 26 2015 04:01 jarjarbinks wrote:
hmm ya I don't know. I think what happened here is that damdred pointed out an observation he has seen in the game that isn't 100% true and you not only called him out for it you also took it to the farthest conclusion.
When I read that I'm thinking he's not basing that observation on the vote/flip of LM. Its more on the basic knowledge of scum vs town making deadlines.
I could see myself as mafia waking up if I was pushing one of the wagons and wanted to see if it worked. I could also see myself as town doing the same thing if I thought I was right. That means I disagree with his statement in defining DP as town.
With a town Damdred this statement is 100% right, assuming he's...illogical. But Damdred is not a sicklucker. He is not a lightningstike or a glowingbear. Those three players I have learned to give leeway to if they don't make sense cause they do that sometimes as either alignment ><
Damdred knows what he's doing enough to know that scum probably is not going to roll over if a scum partner is the main wagon. So as long as he still suspects LM, making that statement is illogical, irrational, and not like the Damdred I know. That he refuses to acknowledge that fairly simple fact makes me even more suspicious of him ><
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On January 26 2015 04:19 geript wrote:
This is going to sound like a really dumb reason to scumread someone, but Shining's not quoting anything for the most part. That's really curious because the last game he quoted a bunch of hsit.
Probably explained by working on a tablet, which Damdred and I have already verified is true. I like that you're revisiting Shining, though. It's nice to see at least one other player not dead set on auto lynching tomorrow.
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EPT
