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Breshke isn't in that game...
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I really don't get where all this LM rage is coming from.
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lol That makes sense now. I was like hunh? Breshke isn't in this game. He coudln't have said anything about setup. WTF Damdred.
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On January 25 2015 06:55 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2015 06:54 geript wrote:
I really don't get where all this LM rage is coming from. Would you be mad if you were about to be mislynched? I know I would.
Yah, but it's not like he's been active or try hard. He's pissed that he's being read off of D1 filter when there's really not much else there. Like I don't get that.
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It is a bit interesting thought that Breshke isn't around for EoD when he was here not long ago.
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I think it's Breshke/Shining, Breshke/Rsoulin or Damdred/Shining.
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The real question is I think going to be is Shining or Rsoultin the last mafia.
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On January 23 2015 07:50 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 19:17 LoneMeow wrote:On January 22 2015 08:21 Breshke wrote:So i can't be bothered to wait for LM to respond to my last question so im just going to go on. On January 21 2015 22:40 LoneMeow wrote:Breshke is scum. There's a clear avoidance of committing to any reads, and it's quite scummy how he wants to lynch me without considering other options. On January 20 2015 08:53 Breshke wrote:
So GB flipping town makes damdred fairly townie for what was going on with the wagons between the two.
Also rsoultin is also fairly townie for how hard she was going against trfel especially at times when she seemed to be the only one doing it.
For me that leaves two mafia within the following players given no cc's occur and trfel actually flips mafia
5) DarthPunk (filter)
6) The Shining (filter)
8) LoneMeow (filter)
10) geript (filter)
So for auto i only need one more town read and that would probably be geript for a couple reasons the biggest one being that I don't really see the scum motivation to lead the wagon off of GB (a town) onto warwaffle (another town).
So for next day phase i want to lynch one of the three remaining players and if i was to choose it would probably be LM.
I realize i could easily be wrong on any of my town reads as some of it is fairly weak reasoning so that makes this type of analysis maybe not the best but for now it is the world im living in. Out of this list of 4 people, I can understand why he would not consider geript or DarthPunk at the time of this post, but he makes no explanation of why he picked me over The Shining. In fact, nowhere in his filter does he take any kind of stance on The Shining or analyze him. The only reason he gives for wanting to lynch me is where my vote ended up - he does not analyze why it ended up there, nor try to use the rest of my posting to validate his read in the slightest. There's also a certain lack of going anywhere with his posts, he's content to discuss whether LightningStrike might have fake claimed (as if) and ask questions that don't really go anywhere instead of posting his own analysis. Currently he's by far my best lynch after Trfel. The bolded part gives me an impression that LM can see reason as to why i wouldn't have wanted to lynched geript or DP. This means that he must agree that they have done something townie or he is reading them town or whatever. But if you look at the reads list he just posted DP and Geript are both in his null category the same as the shining so from his PoV this doesn't make sense. The bolded part meant I can understand why you might think it's not worth considering them (2 active players) over myself and The Shining (2 rather inactive players). It does not mean I think they should not be considered. The biggest reason I'm reading your scum right now is that you don't seem to bother trying to verify your theory based on votes that I am scum using what I have posted in the game. Have you read my filter? Did you analyze the posts? What conclusions did you come to? What play is there to analyse? You have done almost nothing this entire game. At EoD1 you put your vote on jarjar because you town read GB. But you didn't want to lynch jarjar before that. I don't think a town just settles like that when there was still some time left during the day. Yes it was only 15 minutes i think so that's a harsh call but you were obviously around because you had time to switch to WW. Show nested quote +On January 19 2015 03:45 LoneMeow wrote:On January 19 2015 03:39 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2015 03:27 LoneMeow wrote:
rsoultin, so if I somehow manage to convince you to not lynch me, and Trfel isn't viable either, who's the next best choice? I've looked at GB. I can see the complaints, but I think they've been overstated. I've looked at you and my main issue was you didn't seem to care. Trying to help me find a viable lynch would go a long way to help change that opinion. I won't vote for JarJar or LS today. I don't like a push on Shining, either, though I'm less certain on him. WW I think is probably town or he has a weirdly aggressive scum game lol. Getting itchy feelings about Damdred...can't pin down why. I want to hear Geript's poe. He told me that he looks for towns when he plays instead of scum, and lynches from what's left. I'm not sure that I'm seeing that this game, tbh. Definitely not lynching LightningStrike today. Why not jarjarbinks? As a matter of fact, I do agree with that, but I want to hear your reasons. I need to reread Damdred and geript. Show nested quote +On January 19 2015 06:36 LoneMeow wrote:On January 19 2015 06:34 rsoultin wrote:
It's like he was summoned. Did you look at what you said you would, LM? Just got back and caught up, so not yet. Why are you voting Damdred? Any other reason than GlowingBear's case? Here is twice where you have said you are going to specifically read damdred and geript yet you still have them in your nulls. Did you actually read their filters and not manage to pull an alignment lean one way or the other? Show nested quote +On January 22 2015 19:22 LoneMeow wrote:
Breshke, please give your current reads when you're around. A list is fine for now. Town Rsoultin JarJar Geript Town lean The shining Null Damdred DP Scum LM Obviously one of my nulls is wrong or im wrong on one of my town lean but im fairly sure geript and rsoultin are town
The lowest DP ends is usually null but more often I remember it more as Breshke giving him a soft town lean. I'm town, rsoultin' town, Shining's town. Like it makes no sense for a Damdred LM scum team. But he's happy about the LM lynch but isn't really thinking how it affects his reads. He's also not really flat analyzing based on filter alone.
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Oh man I'm so excited. Maybe I'll be shot tonight.
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On January 25 2015 07:29 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2015 07:24 geript wrote:On January 23 2015 07:50 Breshke wrote:On January 22 2015 19:17 LoneMeow wrote:On January 22 2015 08:21 Breshke wrote:So i can't be bothered to wait for LM to respond to my last question so im just going to go on. On January 21 2015 22:40 LoneMeow wrote:Breshke is scum. There's a clear avoidance of committing to any reads, and it's quite scummy how he wants to lynch me without considering other options. On January 20 2015 08:53 Breshke wrote:
So GB flipping town makes damdred fairly townie for what was going on with the wagons between the two.
Also rsoultin is also fairly townie for how hard she was going against trfel especially at times when she seemed to be the only one doing it.
For me that leaves two mafia within the following players given no cc's occur and trfel actually flips mafia
5) DarthPunk (filter)
6) The Shining (filter)
8) LoneMeow (filter)
10) geript (filter)
So for auto i only need one more town read and that would probably be geript for a couple reasons the biggest one being that I don't really see the scum motivation to lead the wagon off of GB (a town) onto warwaffle (another town).
So for next day phase i want to lynch one of the three remaining players and if i was to choose it would probably be LM.
I realize i could easily be wrong on any of my town reads as some of it is fairly weak reasoning so that makes this type of analysis maybe not the best but for now it is the world im living in. Out of this list of 4 people, I can understand why he would not consider geript or DarthPunk at the time of this post, but he makes no explanation of why he picked me over The Shining. In fact, nowhere in his filter does he take any kind of stance on The Shining or analyze him. The only reason he gives for wanting to lynch me is where my vote ended up - he does not analyze why it ended up there, nor try to use the rest of my posting to validate his read in the slightest. There's also a certain lack of going anywhere with his posts, he's content to discuss whether LightningStrike might have fake claimed (as if) and ask questions that don't really go anywhere instead of posting his own analysis. Currently he's by far my best lynch after Trfel. The bolded part gives me an impression that LM can see reason as to why i wouldn't have wanted to lynched geript or DP. This means that he must agree that they have done something townie or he is reading them town or whatever. But if you look at the reads list he just posted DP and Geript are both in his null category the same as the shining so from his PoV this doesn't make sense. The bolded part meant I can understand why you might think it's not worth considering them (2 active players) over myself and The Shining (2 rather inactive players). It does not mean I think they should not be considered. The biggest reason I'm reading your scum right now is that you don't seem to bother trying to verify your theory based on votes that I am scum using what I have posted in the game. Have you read my filter? Did you analyze the posts? What conclusions did you come to? What play is there to analyse? You have done almost nothing this entire game. At EoD1 you put your vote on jarjar because you town read GB. But you didn't want to lynch jarjar before that. I don't think a town just settles like that when there was still some time left during the day. Yes it was only 15 minutes i think so that's a harsh call but you were obviously around because you had time to switch to WW. On January 19 2015 03:45 LoneMeow wrote:On January 19 2015 03:39 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2015 03:27 LoneMeow wrote:
rsoultin, so if I somehow manage to convince you to not lynch me, and Trfel isn't viable either, who's the next best choice? I've looked at GB. I can see the complaints, but I think they've been overstated. I've looked at you and my main issue was you didn't seem to care. Trying to help me find a viable lynch would go a long way to help change that opinion. I won't vote for JarJar or LS today. I don't like a push on Shining, either, though I'm less certain on him. WW I think is probably town or he has a weirdly aggressive scum game lol. Getting itchy feelings about Damdred...can't pin down why. I want to hear Geript's poe. He told me that he looks for towns when he plays instead of scum, and lynches from what's left. I'm not sure that I'm seeing that this game, tbh. Definitely not lynching LightningStrike today. Why not jarjarbinks? As a matter of fact, I do agree with that, but I want to hear your reasons. I need to reread Damdred and geript. On January 19 2015 06:36 LoneMeow wrote:On January 19 2015 06:34 rsoultin wrote:
It's like he was summoned. Did you look at what you said you would, LM? Just got back and caught up, so not yet. Why are you voting Damdred? Any other reason than GlowingBear's case? Here is twice where you have said you are going to specifically read damdred and geript yet you still have them in your nulls. Did you actually read their filters and not manage to pull an alignment lean one way or the other? On January 22 2015 19:22 LoneMeow wrote:
Breshke, please give your current reads when you're around. A list is fine for now. Town Rsoultin JarJar Geript Town lean The shining Null Damdred DP Scum LM Obviously one of my nulls is wrong or im wrong on one of my town lean but im fairly sure geript and rsoultin are town The lowest DP ends is usually null but more often I remember it more as Breshke giving him a soft town lean. I'm town, rsoultin' town, Shining's town. Like it makes no sense for a Damdred LM scum team. But he's happy about the LM lynch but isn't really thinking how it affects his reads. He's also not really flat analyzing based on filter alone. hmmm okay. so...I don't know. a damdred LM scum team doesn't make sense, you're right. dp is in the same null category as damdred... i'll have to see where else breshke has read dp, cause this post doesn't really illustrate your point.
3/4ths of the people who reasonably could be mafia with LM and the last being null doesn't illustrate that my point that his LM scum team makes no sense.
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Maybe I'm wrong about him townreading DP in later sections, but he did in earlier situations. Even still, doesn't make much sense that he doesn't get LM+DP scum team. LM is mafia for him and DP is 1 of 2 people in the null category and he's townreading the rest. Like LM+Damdred makes little to no sense. LM + DP makes tons of sense and he never really "gets it."
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On January 25 2015 08:28 jarjarbinks wrote:
Geript would your scum team be Breske Damded right now?
no. I don't think that's a reasonable scum team at all.
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It's really odd the Breshke isn't flipping the fuck out our anything. Like he was literally 1 vote off of getting lynched. It's like business as usual. That's really funky.
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@JJB. You know that % scum thing you used in the last newbie game. How do you determine percentages. What does that have everyone at now?
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On January 25 2015 16:23 jarjarbinks wrote:
Ya I haven't used it this game. That model was based on EOD votes, dead peoples votes, and who dies at night. I first figured that if I could get enough games into the system, I could figure out if say voting for a town that gets lynched makes you any more likely to be scum or not. I was thinking about doing something like seeing how claiming or including votes that switch later affect a person's alignment as well, but those require more digging into every game and would take more time.
I only had 2 games in the system then and 3 now. I've been kind of lazy, mostly because it seems like all the people that play on here were very against it. Statistics are supposed to be used to help support things people normally see in the games. Since my numbers were going against common perception, I figured it was either:
You guys were wrong
OR
My model sucked some big balls.
I went with my model sucked some big balls.
I think if I had time to put in like 30 games to the model I might have something. But that's going to be a while. My 3 game model has it like this (baseline is 2/7 because theres two scum out of 7 people):
Me: 43% mafia... lol
Breshke: 41% mafia
Rsoultin: 31% mafia
Shining: 30% mafia
Everyone else: 29% mafia
This is without a +/- 3% buffer.
But like I said before, I'm not using this at all and for good reason. If I did, I would have still been genuinely confused because of the very large train Day1 and GB voting for me... lol
So how much percentage points do everyone get?
I ask because I was interested in it at end of game; I mean it did have mafia as the #2,3 and 4 on the to lynch train.
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To be clear, the reason why it was bad was that you never explained how people got to X%. You know. Like:
Voting for a dead towny adds X percentage
Being voted for by a dead towny adds Y percentage
etc.
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There is actually one last scum team that makes sense. Damdred/DP. But that's unlikely. I'm just going to assume I'm going to be shot so I'll be reading for the last 3 hours.
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DP you around? I'm really torn about shining.
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This is going to sound like a really dumb reason to scumread someone, but Shining's not quoting anything for the most part. That's really curious because the last game he quoted a bunch of hsit.
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3326
3055
107
85
EPT
