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On January 07 2015 05:35 Trfel wrote:
Voting LightningStrike for now. Not impressed with his play at all. I'll say more in a bit once I finish reading everything.
And what do you think about everybody else? I know you said you were going to be busy on day 1, but them majority of your filter is pre-game banter. So I'd like to get your thoughts on where players stand, before the lynch deadline.
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On January 07 2015 05:40 Gumdrop wrote:
I know that it is popular to want to lynch LS right now. Presently though I don't see it though. :/
Irrelevant of that Exo_ has still yet to impress me.
Vote: Exo_
And what have I done to make you think I'm scum? I'll admit I'm not always polite, but that's just how I play this game. If you think something I've done is scummy, then point it out. Not impressing you is hardly a good reason.
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On January 07 2015 05:52 TheWarWaffle wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 05:17 Tubesock wrote:On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy. + Show Spoiler +
After reading the thread my current reads for the game are as follows:
The Shining: Town
The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.
Half the Sky: Town
HTS acts like a true townie. Says what she wants, when she wants to, to whomever she wants. At least, that's what she wants us to believe, but I don't have anything better at this time.
rsoultin: Suspicious
The accusation-train keeps on rolling whenever rsoultin is around. I find the similarities in play style to her previous games an indicator of deceit rather than openness. Rsoultin rolled Town in every other game she played like this, so why shouldn't she be Town now? I can't think of a better cover than this. Strangely, even though rsoultin admits that it's her "bias" to ignore inactives, she votes for me. This is strange for several reasons: I was inactive at the time she started my lynch wagon; she had previously agreed with my post on HTS; and there was no progression of thought as to why I was scum.
jarjarbinks: Light Town
Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.
Trfel: Unknown
As Trfel has posted effectively nothing indicating any affiliation, I must refrain from passing judgment on the hangman.
Gumdrop: Town
Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.
Silverarte: Possible Mafia
The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...
ExO_: Light Town
My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.
-Celestial-: Town
-Celestial- maintains a consistent level of posts and explains his thoughts in a logical progression. I see no suspicious behavior, only a desire to understand and unearth new information.
LightningStrike: Suspicious/Unknown
I have my own reasons for being suspicious of LS, mainly due to the constant attempts to shift attention whenever the focus is on him.
Tubesock: Mafia
After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.
Currently, Tubesock has my vote. I'd like to hear other people's opinions as well. I'll ask again. So, Warwaffle, I'm your strongest read. What's my scum motivation for having one of the largest filters? Why would I bother trying to get people to talk? Who really pushed to get information from Silver, JarJar, and Gumdrops who universally appear to be deemed lurkers? You have a large filter because you took over ExO_'s position (accuser) after he disappeared. Your scum motivation would be to hide in plain sight and gain people's trust by posting frequently. Everyone has something to gain from getting people to talk; this is not indicative of scum. All of my scum indications from you have come from questions I asked myself when looking at your posts. Why would he say that? Why would I say that? What are his true intentions behind saying/writing this? I implore you to prove me wrong. However, after seeing LS's questionable "defense leaps", I feel that he has become the weakest link, and the safest vote out of everyone.
WarWaffle would you mind being more specific in regards to the bolded portion above? What did he say that you think he would say as scum?
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On January 07 2015 06:06 Half the Sky wrote:
To add to what I just said on LS...in the game that he was scum, he acted like he was trying to hide, there was fear in some of his posts...and I'm not seeing any of that behaviour this game.
He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts.
I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it?
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Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions.
His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS.
I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS.
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On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote:
I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time.
The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument.
I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch.
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I'm very tempted to switch to waffle. But I still feel like my argument for Lightning Strike stands. I feel like I'll be okay with the WW lynch but I don't think I can switch my vote just yet.
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On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:
I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum.
So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have.
I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to.
Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes.
On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote:
I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time.
The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument.
I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch.
You didn't answer my question about why you think WarWaffle is a policy lynch, and not based on his posts.
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trfel I don't appreciate you ignoring my question
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Except you hadn't "clearly already done" anything.
On January 07 2015 07:26 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:25 TheWarWaffle wrote:
No computer, 12% battery on IPhone. 2 hours until I am most likely lynched... Time for a desperate measure. I am town and possess a power role. I appear to have made a fool of myself through my and am unable to defend myself adequately at this time. All I can say is I'm not mafia and that there are better people to lynch. Please find a charging station and charge your phone or something, if at all possible. A claim like that isn't going to help with anything.
You posted that before you answered. You've since answered, and that's all I wanted.
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What the fuck @ WarWaffle. How are we going to win this game if people with blue roles don't give a shit. The reads he posted were bad and flat out wrong about several things. He claims power role in the last few seconds, but can't go the extra mile to say which blue role.
I get it's a newb game, but we just lynched a blue role because he couldn't take the effort to post. And it makes me angry :/.
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I've spent today playing civ and watching the blacklist (great show btw). I intend to review the thread and post my updated thoughts. Hopefully do a bit of voting analysis.
However I intend to finish season 1 of the blacklist first. Currently I'm not caught up at all. And I'm still a bit pissed at WarWaffle. For a blue role to post that little, and then soft claim 2 hours before end of day like he did....it's just frustrating, even for a noob game. And his reads were so bad and so wrong.
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Okay I've read the pages since I left yesterday. Jesus Christ some long-winded posts, and the improper quotation format from rsoultin/jarjar was annoying.
I think jarjar in a lot of his reads is suffering from confirmation bias. I'm not entirely sure where I stand on him right now. For now, I don't think I can consider him scum. Null
I'm strong town-reading HTS. Everything she's posted has been good in my opinion. She's asked questions I've wanted to know the answers to as I read the thread.
I think I'm still sold that Lightning Strike is scum. He has an OMGUS on shining today after shining voted him. I know he's saying his mother's medical problems are affecting him a bit, but I don't think it even comes close to being able to clear him as town. Strong Scum
Based on his day 1 play, I thought shining might've been scum. But he's really stepped it up since then. I think he's made some bad calls and reads, but I believe it's due to his newness rather than him being scum. I'd say he's more misguided town. Soft town read for now.
Going to quote directly from my notes: "Gumdrops is an inactive scummy fuck". He's not helping town at all. From his last post:
On January 08 2015 08:10 Gumdrop wrote:
I didn't agree with some of his thoughts on his only large scale analysis of peoples alignments, but thats neither here nor there now.
I was paralyzed with inaction, because I didn't know what to do and none of the options seemed like good ones. Taking a look at the votes, and based off the information on how tie votes are decided that Trfel gave us, it would have taken at least two people to make a not WarWaffle lynch happen.
First he offers a piss-poor "I didn't agree with his (WarWaffle) thoughts, without explaining what he means at all. Then this "paralyzed with inaction" not knowing what to do crap. If he didn't know what to do, why is he not posting in the thread asking questions and figuring out what to do?
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read.
So thats my first thoughts. I'll also say it looks like we do not have a vigi, as I'd expect the vigi to shoot night 1.
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On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote:
HTS, you still here? I need someone to talk to who I'm not scumreading/feeling iffy about.
What are your impressions on the voting? I read your earlier post and can see you're not sure about LS or JarJar right now.
Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset.
I'm mad at WW for bad play. He has a blue role. but he's inactive as hell, and when he does post his reads are bad and filled with wrong information. Then he soft claims blue when he's about to die. I know I'd try to fake claim if I was a mafia and looking like the inevitable lynch, and that's what this looked like to me.
So I'm mad that an important town player couldn't take the time to play the game, potentially fucking the rest of us over. I didn't switch my vote over to him because I didn't need to. But I was around at EoD and you better believe I was watching for last second shenanigans. If I saw people moving votes at the last second, I would've jumped on to the WW train.
I still believe LS was the better vote. I still believe LS is scum now. But the case on WW was decent in my opinion.
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The thing is I don't think soft claiming blue was the correct decision in this case, except if you are doctor.
As doc if you hard claim you're dead at night regardless, so soft claim is better.
As vig if you hard claim you can still get your night kill off, and doc may protect you.
As Veteran if you hard claim, yeah you can't absorb a mafia hit anymore but now we have a confirmed town. This is a good thing.
As Cop if you hard claim, doctor can protect you at night.
I know it's not 100% sure thing we have a doc (chances are we don't have a doc and a cop tbh, the combo is too good), but I think in every situation but doctor you hard claim if you are going to be lynched.
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On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 14:27 ExO_ wrote:
Then there's Celestial. I think I'm starting to scum read him as well. I didn't like that he just parked his vote on jarjar. I also don't like how he seems to be going whichever way the wind blows. He's easily swayed with whoever is posting at the time. For example he hopped right on the LS train with me, then when I was gone for a while he backed off it, only to start agreeing with me more when I got back in the thread. Another example is he did a bit of an OMGUS on rsoultin after day 1, but immediately said he was willing to give he the benefit of the doubt. That's scum behavior in my mind. Scum read. If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
You are lying and I can prove it.
On January 06 2015 01:32 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly....
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...Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.
Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.
On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Then I filter-dived for my second set of reads to confirm stuff before voting him; which was a very long time after you posted. But when LS demonstrated that he's played exactly this way before that set some doubt there, so getting off him was absolutely nothing to do with you. And note that I didn't switch back suspicions to LS because of you. Again, check my posts. I questioned you for your opinion on LS and then when LS decided to throw out a vague, apparently panicky, claim THAT is what made me suspicious of him again.
Oh really?
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Ok I've taken the time myself to read over the evidence that LS presented and...actually its pretty convincing. Although I think meta reads, especially based on just one game, can easily be manipulated he IS playing this very similar to the way he has in the past and it IS from three separate games so...yeah well done there.
I can't in good faith vote LS anymore. His playstyle is just too consistent between townie games there and it has severely shaken my confidence on it. I don't really know playstyles very well of course but those links were fairly convincing. Of course LS could be deliberately selecting evidence but it doesn't feel like that, it feels more like a genuine attempt at convincing. Not a D1 lynch for me anymore.
At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:
On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it
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You finally go back on to LS with:
On January 07 2015 05:36 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Had dinner. Going off to do some other things now but before I do I have to say that claiming like that brings my sights right back onto you, LS. Nobody actually asked for a claim off you and its not like you were under a huge amount of pressure. ExO was the only one really on you and you'd convinced me to give you the benefit of the doubt for a while with your past citations.
But a softclaim like that just a few hours before the deadline when nobody is actually pushing you makes it look as if you're panicking honestly. And that makes me incredibly suspicious once more .
Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::
On January 07 2015 05:24 ExO_ wrote:+ Show Spoiler +I'll admit he had more initial scum reads at first. But then, there's this his first big "read" post: On November 28 2014 12:56 LightningStrike wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Okay since now that my cousin and his wife and son have left I can finally give you guys my current reads for the time being.
Breshke: Town since he displaying the same kind of approach for today as he did in my last game when he was town.
Batsnacks: Null leaning town since he is acting close to the same way he did last game with me when he was a doctor but he been dodging questions from Oatsmaster and Half the Sky.
Damndred: Null leaning town since he was one of the major pushers for the lynching of DSIM without much of a good reason and been defending Batsnacks actions but at the same time he been giving losts of questions although DSIM didn't respond well to the questions.
Half the Sky: Town since he been giving good reasonings for his reads throughout the game although I don't like his case for Batsnacks being scum based on my own experience playing with Batsnacks in my last game.
sicklucker: Town because his posting style had pretty much stayed the same from the last game I played with him although he did looked very scummy in that game but he was just a Vanilla town and since our power roles had been lynched/killed I having a safe bet that sicklucker is town.
meatpudding: Null leaning town he had some decent questions after being gone for a while and now he claiming to have no power at his house it could be a scum move because one of the scums in my last game tried to pull that move but failed so perhaps meatpudding could scum.
alakaslam: null leaning scum since he not posted much of his reads but he also admitted to notread much of the thread during the time of us lynching DSIM but I need to see more posts of his though since he said he had to go earlier in the thread to confirm my suspicions.
Oatsmasters: Town since he been asking lots of questions to everyone and been trying to lead the discussion when he can which isn't a trait a scum member would do.
kushm4sta: Null leaning scum since he not been contributing a lot like his last scum game which was my last although he did give a couple questions to people he also didn't post much so I need to wait for him to post more so I can get a better read on him
rsoultin: Null leaning town since he trying to ask some questions and responding to questions he been asked by others although he did convence me to lynch DSIM that is haunting me because of my last game experience :|
Look Familiar?
HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.
So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:
Liars should be lynched
People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.
##Vote: Celestial
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On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you.
It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that.
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On January 09 2015 05:05 Tubesock wrote:
Also, I'll vote Lightning. But I should let you all know it's 100% fucking ragevote. I do think he's going to flip town.
If you really believe that, it's incredibly poor play. And it doesn't even make sense. There's nothing to rage about right now. While I think he looks scummy as hell with his over-concern with appearing innocent and lack of trying to find scum at all, he's not being rude or anything.
Explain this to me.
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On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that. Do I seriously have to spell this out? Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS: Show nested quote +LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting. Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this: Show nested quote +Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat. No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town. I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then? Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting.
I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did.
You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game.
Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all.
I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS.
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LS these crap posts aren't maming you look any better. If you're town do something. Dont piggy back off others or try to use meta from other games.
Right now you appear to me desperate to get the vote off of you and on to anybody else. And from where I'm sitting you look scummy as hell
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EPT
