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On December 14 2014 01:00 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote:Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider: Mafia is unlikely to give presents to town + Show Spoiler [Why?] + They have 66% chance of giving a important power to town. That said, if a mafia holds a present, he is most likely to give it to a partner and not opening it until they can see if the present town holds is the death one. Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present. This means: If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town. If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair. That's it guys. Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them. Nice recant. Took you long enough. I'm not the first one to say no, that's stupid, just one of the first to scumread you for the mass role claim. You're still ignoring my comment that Mafia is fully capable of fake claiming the opening of a present (and what was Ritoky's main excuse, that it would be dumb to open a present as mafia if it could be the kill present?), claim that he had a KS, then follow through because mafia does have a KS. That said, I'm comfortable waiting to see if he dies tonight, if no one else who was scumreading him Day 1 feels inclined to do the same today because they think he's a stupid (or crafty) town.
I'm not ignoring it, I'm considering probability. Mafia can do whatever they want to do. But it is likely that they do that? I don't believe so. He obviously received the present because I sent it to him. Unnecessary to claim it as mafia.
Also, I know the setup was open on titanic v, but the thing is that a lot of vts died, the probability of we having a lot of power roles alive is high and if we all claim, we will be able to narrow people and discussion. We will narrow our lunch targets a lot.
Anyway, it doesn't matter now because it is a better idea to not claim.
Masons are confirmed to each other, aren't they? Because if they are, we will have another confirmed town without a power role. Do you understand why claiming masons is okay?
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On December 14 2014 01:10 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 00:49 Xatalos wrote:On December 14 2014 00:20 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 00:04 Xatalos wrote:On December 13 2014 23:40 rsoultin wrote:
So everyone is seriously on Tube because they think him mentioning 5 mafia was a scumslip? Is that what y'all are really saying? Or because he was talking weird?
The seeming personality change from Day 1 to Day 2 I can kind of see but...what is the case on this guy? This smacks of picking random arbitrary reasons to lynch people again, and if we keep doing that, we might as well just be throwing darts at a dartboard. Or just give up now lol and cede the game.
Someone voting on Tube, help me out...what am I missing?
Also, if we're talking about scumslipping for him, why aren't we talking about it for me? I pointed out to SL how he broadcasted that he was turning his present over to Damdred...which would make him a good target for a KS beyond being a claimed named VT.
I must be missing something because this wagon isn't really making sense to me.
@Tube
Dude, when people ask you for scumreads they generally want you to explain why, and making pre-flipped associations (associations that so and so is scum because someone over there is also scum, when neither have been revealed as scum yet) doesn't tend to hold a lot of weight. If you can explain yourself, that would be great.
Sidenote: I think (correct me if I'm wrong here) Oats' point is lynching FF as a plynch doesn't make sense with his filter length. Lynching him for a case involving scumtells, and we have a good deal of material to work with, would be a good thing. I'm still reading him as null, perhaps null-leaning scum for not contributing a whole lot to the convos, but not like OMG you're SCUMMY. Can anyone make a case against him who thinks he's a good lynch? I don't really see anyone as "100% scum" right now. We'll just have to go with the best options and hopefully gain more information from the wagons and flips (especially after we get our first scum flip). There should be quite a few Mafia with this many players so it's actually a bit peculiar that so many people feel relatively townish/null, but I feel like we're pretty much guaranteed to hit scum within Tube/FF and we can go from there. It's not just the scumslip with Tube. He's significantly altered his playstyle twice now - once after the first NK's and again now that there's a wagon on him. It doesn't seem like something natural for a townie to do. His reads are also pretty much senseless and apparently pulled out of thin air. He still hasn't clarified his reads... Is he hunting for scum? No, he's just listing scumreads without any logic that gan be grasped (by me at least). What's your own "slip"? I don't completely follow. I don't think you have to always mention the possibility of someone being scum if he seems townish enough and has claimed on top of it. FF is partly a policy lynch, I guess. He's clearly making no effort to be actually helpful and he'll never be a townread, so he'd be a massive danger at LYLO even as town. Besides, he's done several things that are scum-motivated (like claiming credit for being on the 27nb wagon despite just ninja/sheepvoting it close to deadline, voting for 27nb and then weirdly ignoring her after the claim/unclaim stuff, overall not showing any interest in scumhunting unless pressured). No, I can't say that I feel 100% about anyone either, but some seem pretty scummy vice just sorta scummy, so either I'm the only one seeing/feeling that (which either means I'm wrong and seeing things where they aren't (possible)/not explaining myself well (also possible) or ppl are getting lost in the thread and going with comfortable/are scum themselves). GB, for instance. I won't say I'm 100% on him, but I did have an itching suspicion he might be a role (not because he half-claimed it, but because he kept delaying his reads like something else might inform it) but calling for a mass role reveal multiple times...yuck. No power role would want that. No plugged-in townie would think that was a good idea. Tube...yeah he's weird. Granted. And the personality changes. I'd only half-noticed the second one, but figured that was just cause people beat him up for the Slam talk weirdness and he actually personally insulted Slam in there. But it's his first game, so him not knowing how to give reads is possible. I get the feeling that as long as he's trying he's probably not our best lynch, at least for today. SL accused me of "slipping" because I could trace his convo and see where he hinted strongly that Damdred would be the one receiving his present. Also mentioning that mafia could easily target him to take that out of play, since essentially at the time he was the only "revealed" power role. Along with Ritoky (though it could be argued that since he said he'd open it and Damdred made no such claim, could have been waiting to see if it killed him or not...I still think the claim itself is scummy for reasons previously stated). As for FF...would we even know when we're in LYLO? Most all of your points could be explained by apathy...just feels more policy than anything. I guess my main problem with most of the wagons right now is they're not strongly supported and I see players that we could actually make a relatively solid case against. So you think GB is the most likely scum? I agree that he's done somewhat fishy stuff like asking for roleclaims and such. You'd need to convince me about that "close to 100% scum" though... He also made that HF case after all (at least partly lol). I wouldn't really call what Tube's been doing as "trying". He basically disappeared when I asked him to explain his reads. Before that he didn't really do anything noteworthy. I think your argument against ritoky was that it wouldn't be so easy to validate him being town after this. I think you're missing the point that when ritoky claimed, even in the worst case scenario <b>(if all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands)</b> ritoky would be risking either 1) the 33% risk of immediately dying or 2) the 50% risk of being counter-claimed and dying if he fakeclaimed opening it. I think both risks are unbearable for scum when easily the best approach seems to be just to hide it. Well, the ABSOLUTELY worst scenario would be that sicklucker is scum too and Mafia knew everything about the presents and thus could safely fakeclaim. But then why would sicklucker pass it on to town (Damdred)? And why would they claim at all especially in the stupid way that ritoky did? Apathy is usually associated to scum though it's not excluded to them. The LM case I think also points at more than just apathy for FF.... His stance on 27nb during D1 is so unnatural. If all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands, let's follow this logic train, yes? They kill Damdred who obviously had the present and can't pass it on to someone else until the next day. Now they can claim what they want because no one can CC them. It's not a wild and crazy theory. It does assume that Ritoky isn't stupid/suicidal. I've already acknowledged I have an anti-idiot bias, but I'd rather play that way than assume that no one's actions mean anything because no one is ever thinking. -shrugs-
Hmm. Even if all the worst assumptions are true, I think the clearly optimal scum play would be just to keep the presents to themselves. What was the scumteam's master plan for having ritoky claim it and putting him under extreme scrutiny where he might easily slip or look a lot worse than before? I don't think it's very feasible. I still stand by my opinion that the two more likely options are him simply being town and either fakeclaiming it to eat a NK/RB or truly claiming it and just making a suboptimal play.
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Xat, mafia gave up on that game because the threat of mass claiming was real. They conceded because of that, if I remember it correctly
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On December 14 2014 01:19 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 01:00 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote:Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider: Mafia is unlikely to give presents to town + Show Spoiler [Why?] + They have 66% chance of giving a important power to town. That said, if a mafia holds a present, he is most likely to give it to a partner and not opening it until they can see if the present town holds is the death one. Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present. This means: If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town. If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair. That's it guys. Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them. Nice recant. Took you long enough. I'm not the first one to say no, that's stupid, just one of the first to scumread you for the mass role claim. You're still ignoring my comment that Mafia is fully capable of fake claiming the opening of a present (and what was Ritoky's main excuse, that it would be dumb to open a present as mafia if it could be the kill present?), claim that he had a KS, then follow through because mafia does have a KS. That said, I'm comfortable waiting to see if he dies tonight, if no one else who was scumreading him Day 1 feels inclined to do the same today because they think he's a stupid (or crafty) town. I'm not ignoring it, I'm considering probability. Mafia can do whatever they want to do. But it is likely that they do that? I don't believe so. He obviously received the present because I sent it to him. Unnecessary to claim it as mafia. Also, I know the setup was open on titanic v, but the thing is that a lot of vts died, the probability of we having a lot of power roles alive is high and if we all claim, we will be able to narrow people and discussion. We will narrow our lunch targets a lot. Anyway, it doesn't matter now because it is a better idea to not claim. Masons are confirmed to each other, aren't they? Because if they are, we will have another confirmed town without a power role. Do you understand why claiming masons is okay?
I guess it would be a decent idea to claim Mason if you're in danger of being lynched. Well, that also depends on if LM left any kind of clue behind. But claiming unnecessarily right now would just make scum's work easier (easier to narrow down blue roles and use the VT-killing role).
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On December 14 2014 01:20 GlowingBear wrote:
Xat, mafia gave up on that game because the threat of mass claiming was real. They conceded because of that, if I remember it correctly
I just read the last pages and I think it was mostly because almost everyone was "confirmed town" after jumping on the correct wagon at the last moments. Well, whatever. Even if mass claiming was a decent option there, that game was that game and this game is this game.
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Meh, I don't know.
My impression was ritoky and GB were already being scumread (ritoky more than GB) so it was a gamble. My impression may be wrong. I can see a legitimacy ploy (just like bussing a fellow mafia) if a mafia member is being scumread.
And no, GB, I don't. Masons narrows down who might have roles for scum. Scum can claim named VTs if they want or go with the whole we don't know how many could be this role card if questioned about claiming something more powerful.
I feel it's better for masons to only claim if they're in danger of being lynched.
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Palmars roles are in fucking ridiculuous numbers
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I dont see how GB's stuff is super relevant now, we arent lynching sl today regardless.
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On December 14 2014 01:27 rsoultin wrote:
Meh, I don't know.
My impression was ritoky and GB were already being scumread (ritoky more than GB) so it was a gamble. My impression may be wrong. I can see a legitimacy ploy (just like bussing a fellow mafia) if a mafia member is being scumread.
And no, GB, I don't. Masons narrows down who might have roles for scum. Scum can claim named VTs if they want or go with the whole we don't know how many could be this role card if questioned about claiming something more powerful.
I feel it's better for masons to only claim if they're in danger of being lynched.
Well, everything is possible. It's a question of it being likely or not. I don't think it's very likely (at least the scumteams I've been part of haven't been very interested in ballsy plays - more like guaranteed safety such as distancing from teammates and blending in).
Is your suggestion for lynch still GB? Who would be your second preference if you're not all that sure about Tube/FF? I don't think I want to lynch GB now.
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Oats: care to answer to my earlier post?
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Yeah, my suggestion for lynch is still GB. I've brought out the things I don't like about him, but part of it is also a gut read, admittedly. Look through my filter and you'll see me start to question him several times. I only backed off on the outside chance that he might be playing so weird because of a role, but now I'm as close to 100% certain as I can be that he doesn't.
That said, I don't have strong scum reads on others, is the problem. Lots of questions, nulls, nulls leaning scum, nulls leaning town. A few stronger town reads. It's hard to know much without at least one flipped scum.
That's why I keep pressing on my strong scum reads. I'd rather lynch them than question marks. There are too many questions marks for the LYLO argument to sit well with me...we'll never get to them all before town loses lol.
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On December 13 2014 16:17 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few comments to the people who feel I am a good lynch (which to be honest, is probably everyone, or at least ought to be).
First, other than me being a lurker, the only argument is a meta read. Which is based off of a whole one game. A student mafia game, with 13-14 people, where I was shot on Night 1. Meaning, I played for 72 hours in an "easy" game and only had to read ~30 pages the entire time. Then, I jumped into a game with ~26 players, including several veterans and skilled players. And it's already over 100 posts. I'm simply not able to play at the same level I was last game, and yes, that's not ideal.
In addition, one thing that my last game taught me is that meta reads have limited use. So at the moment, I don't intend to make any meta reads. That doesn't mean I'm not trying, it just means that I decided that spending hours pouring over previous games for minimal value isn't a good use of time.
Again, I realize 100% that I appear to be a very good lynch. But that is just for me being a policy lynch, the meta argument really lacks backing. My request is that people spend the next while looking into other people to lynch, as with this much time in the day I don't believe you should start looking at a policy lynch already.
Anyway, I'll be looking at Fecalfeast's filter and the cases made against him again now. If anyone has any (specific) questions they would like me to answer, I should be up for a short while. But I will ignore general questions like "who is scum", as I'll answer that when I can.
No, triforce
Answer my question
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On December 13 2014 23:36 GlowingBear wrote:
Wooooow.
My head.
It hurts
Drink gatorade
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If SL is Mass Murderer he would possibly start with the death present.
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Still nobody?
What is this?!
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Mods already said the presents were randomized, and we don't know why Damdred died. Don't think those are good assumptions to make, Slam. Though if the presents weren't randomized it would be a great point.
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On December 14 2014 02:19 Alakaslam wrote:
If SL is Mass Murderer he would possibly start with the death present.
Presents are unknown to holders. It's in the OP.
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I voted Holyflare since no one wants to lynch Trfel with me.
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Pues...
It's not far off from EoD and there are a very small number of people in the thread right now so...if folks think I'm wrong about GB and/or participation stays down like this I think the best of the other names brought forward is probably Trfel.
I did want to give him the benefit of the doubt another day, but to be frank, (pure policy and meta here, bleh) his sheer lack of presence in this thread is by far the most different from what I've seen of his play vice the other lurkers. His reads seemed strange to me, too, as I recall...town can be wrong, but for someone who can be pretty analytical they seem very lacking. I don't think he's talked about anything but not lynching FF...and not being able to keep up with the thread. Similarly to GB, I also see a lot of promises on reads that never get followed through on. Worse than GB actually. He's got less than a 1-page filter, which normally I'd be inclined to ignore, but...that's ridiculous for this game.
By contrast Oats only has 3 pages, but most of his posts you can seem him keeping things on topic, pushing discussion, questioning reads and pointing out logic flaws.
So, if/when it comes time for vote consolidation, I will be changing my vote to Trfel over Tube or FF.
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EPT
