TL Mafia LXIX: Carol Of The Bells - Page 111

On December 13 2014 16:17 Trfel wrote:
Ok, a few comments to the people who feel I am a good lynch (which to be honest, is probably everyone, or at least ought to be).

First, other than me being a lurker, the only argument is a meta read. Which is based off of a whole one game. A student mafia game, with 13-14 people, where I was shot on Night 1. Meaning, I played for 72 hours in an "easy" game and only had to read ~30 pages the entire time. Then, I jumped into a game with ~26 players, including several veterans and skilled players. And it's already over 100 posts. I'm simply not able to play at the same level I was last game, and yes, that's not ideal.

In addition, one thing that my last game taught me is that meta reads have limited use. So at the moment, I don't intend to make any meta reads. That doesn't mean I'm not trying, it just means that I decided that spending hours pouring over previous games for minimal value isn't a good use of time.

Again, I realize 100% that I appear to be a very good lynch. But that is just for me being a policy lynch, the meta argument really lacks backing. My request is that people spend the next while looking into other people to lynch, as with this much time in the day I don't believe you should start looking at a policy lynch already.

Anyway, I'll be looking at Fecalfeast's filter and the cases made against him again now. If anyone has any (specific) questions they would like me to answer, I should be up for a short while. But I will ignore general questions like "who is scum", as I'll answer that when I can.

On December 13 2014 23:40 rsoultin wrote:
So everyone is seriously on Tube because they think him mentioning 5 mafia was a scumslip? Is that what y'all are really saying? Or because he was talking weird?

The seeming personality change from Day 1 to Day 2 I can kind of see but...what is the case on this guy? This smacks of picking random arbitrary reasons to lynch people again, and if we keep doing that, we might as well just be throwing darts at a dartboard. Or just give up now lol and cede the game.

Someone voting on Tube, help me out...what am I missing?

Also, if we're talking about scumslipping for him, why aren't we talking about it for me? I pointed out to SL how he broadcasted that he was turning his present over to Damdred...which would make him a good target for a KS beyond being a claimed named VT.

I must be missing something because this wagon isn't really making sense to me.

@Tube

Dude, when people ask you for scumreads they generally want you to explain why, and making pre-flipped associations (associations that so and so is scum because someone over there is also scum, when neither have been revealed as scum yet) doesn't tend to hold a lot of weight. If you can explain yourself, that would be great.

Sidenote: I think (correct me if I'm wrong here) Oats' point is lynching FF as a plynch doesn't make sense with his filter length. Lynching him for a case involving scumtells, and we have a good deal of material to work with, would be a good thing. I'm still reading him as null, perhaps null-leaning scum for not contributing a whole lot to the convos, but not like OMG you're SCUMMY. Can anyone make a case against him who thinks he's a good lynch?

On December 14 2014 00:04 Xatalos wrote:


I don't really see anyone as "100% scum" right now. We'll just have to go with the best options and hopefully gain more information from the wagons and flips (especially after we get our first scum flip). There should be quite a few Mafia with this many players so it's actually a bit peculiar that so many people feel relatively townish/null, but I feel like we're pretty much guaranteed to hit scum within Tube/FF and we can go from there.

It's not just the scumslip with Tube. He's significantly altered his playstyle twice now - once after the first NK's and again now that there's a wagon on him. It doesn't seem like something natural for a townie to do. His reads are also pretty much senseless and apparently pulled out of thin air. He still hasn't clarified his reads... Is he hunting for scum? No, he's just listing scumreads without any logic that gan be grasped (by me at least).

What's your own "slip"? I don't completely follow. I don't think you have to always mention the possibility of someone being scum if he seems townish enough and has claimed on top of it.

FF is partly a policy lynch, I guess. He's clearly making no effort to be actually helpful and he'll never be a townread, so he'd be a massive danger at LYLO even as town. Besides, he's done several things that are scum-motivated (like claiming credit for being on the 27nb wagon despite just ninja/sheepvoting it close to deadline, voting for 27nb and then weirdly ignoring her after the claim/unclaim stuff, overall not showing any interest in scumhunting unless pressured).

On December 14 2014 00:20 rsoultin wrote:


No, I can't say that I feel 100% about anyone either, but some seem pretty scummy vice just sorta scummy, so either I'm the only one seeing/feeling that (which either means I'm wrong and seeing things where they aren't (possible)/not explaining myself well (also possible) or ppl are getting lost in the thread and going with comfortable/are scum themselves). GB, for instance. I won't say I'm 100% on him, but I did have an itching suspicion he might be a role (not because he half-claimed it, but because he kept delaying his reads like something else might inform it) but calling for a mass role reveal multiple times...yuck. No power role would want that. No plugged-in townie would think that was a good idea.

Tube...yeah he's weird. Granted. And the personality changes. I'd only half-noticed the second one, but figured that was just cause people beat him up for the Slam talk weirdness and he actually personally insulted Slam in there. But it's his first game, so him not knowing how to give reads is possible. I get the feeling that as long as he's trying he's probably not our best lynch, at least for today.

SL accused me of "slipping" because I could trace his convo and see where he hinted strongly that Damdred would be the one receiving his present. Also mentioning that mafia could easily target him to take that out of play, since essentially at the time he was the only "revealed" power role. Along with Ritoky (though it could be argued that since he said he'd open it and Damdred made no such claim, could have been waiting to see if it killed him or not...I still think the claim itself is scummy for reasons previously stated).

As for FF...would we even know when we're in LYLO? Most all of your points could be explained by apathy...just feels more policy than anything. I guess my main problem with most of the wagons right now is they're not strongly supported and I see players that we could actually make a relatively solid case against.

On December 14 2014 00:16 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Agreed with Xat on the gamestate and FF. I don't actually feel like FF is a high percentage mafia lynch, but if he's not going to play then he should probably die.

I'm kind of "eh" on a Tube lynch. Then again, I'm kind of "eh" on every lynch because I don't see good reasons to vote a lot of people, and I feel like someone being super annoying and crazy is probably town. Inconsistent persona is something...I guess.

Can someone explain the scumslip to me again?

I'll have about an hour to play after I get back from business later today, and I won't be around for deadline. I'll do what I can when I'm around.

On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider:



+ Show Spoiler [Why?] +

Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present.

This means:

If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town.

If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair.

That's it guys.

Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them.

On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider:



+ Show Spoiler [Why?] +

Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present.

This means:

If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town.

If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair.

That's it guys.

Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them.

On December 14 2014 00:52 froggynoddy wrote:



This is obvious. I think my head matches yours...

On December 14 2014 00:43 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok, now that I'm sober (although extremely hangover), and before I continue with the case on Holyflare, I want to say a word about presents. Although talking about the power presents give is useless, there is an important thing about its mechanics that we should consider:



+ Show Spoiler [Why?] +

Town, in the other hand, will give it to anyone day1 and the townie will most likely open it because they have a very good chance of opening a power present.

This means:

If damdred opened a present and flipped town, sicklucker is most likely town.

If ritoky claims he's got a present and that he is opening it, he's most likely town, because mafia would hold it and give to another partner to see if that was the death present or not. There is no motive for mafia to say they will open it, since that, if they open the death present, they will flip mafia anyway, so ritoky's explanation actually looks fair.

That's it guys.

Btw, no mass claiming. It was a bad idea of mine. I've just realised mafia will have problems with so many possible powers against them.

On December 14 2014 00:50 GlowingBear wrote:
Rsoultin, here is an example where mass claiming won the game:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/462188-iv-titanic-mafia-it-has-been-a-privilege

So, really, scumreading me for that is silly.

On December 14 2014 00:50 GlowingBear wrote:
Rsoultin, here is an example where mass claiming won the game:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/462188-iv-titanic-mafia-it-has-been-a-privilege

So, really, scumreading me for that is silly.

On December 14 2014 00:49 Xatalos wrote:


So you think GB is the most likely scum? I agree that he's done somewhat fishy stuff like asking for roleclaims and such. You'd need to convince me about that "close to 100% scum" though... He also made that HF case after all (at least partly lol).

I wouldn't really call what Tube's been doing as "trying". He basically disappeared when I asked him to explain his reads. Before that he didn't really do anything noteworthy.

I think your argument against ritoky was that it wouldn't be so easy to validate him being town after this. I think you're missing the point that when ritoky claimed, even in the worst case scenario <b>(if all the presents except the one given to Damdred were in scum hands)</b> ritoky would be risking either 1) the 33% risk of immediately dying or 2) the 50% risk of being counter-claimed and dying if he fakeclaimed opening it. I think both risks are unbearable for scum when easily the best approach seems to be just to hide it. Well, the ABSOLUTELY worst scenario would be that sicklucker is scum too and Mafia knew everything about the presents and thus could safely fakeclaim. But then why would sicklucker pass it on to town (Damdred)? And why would they claim at all especially in the stupid way that ritoky did?

Apathy is usually associated to scum though it's not excluded to them. The LM case I think also points at more than just apathy for FF.... His stance on 27nb during D1 is so unnatural.