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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++ 
There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced.
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On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced.
What about this one?
+ Show Spoiler + 1-Shot Cop Doctor Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie
Or this one? lol
+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Doctor Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:24 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. What about this one? + Show Spoiler + 1-Shot Cop Doctor Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie
Looks reasonably fine, a bit harder for scum, but probably how it should be. The GF means that the 1-shot cop has (assuming he checks N1) only a 1 in 12 chance of getting a red check. If he gets a green check, he can't really trust it.
The Doctor would be a problem but isn't a huge one with no multi-shot cops. Scum will do worse in this than in the one with the single innocent child, but not that much worse. Assuming random lynches in this kind of setup, you have about a 33% chance for town to win, and assuming the cop checks a VT or GF, things are reasonably balanced. Each night there's a small chance that the doctor makes the correct save, and while the 1-shot cop is alive and claimed it will be an interesting game between the Doctor and the mafia about whether or not to shoot him.
Basically, the 1-shot cop is just as likely (1 in 12) to give an incorrect green check as he is to give a correct red check, with his 1 shot.
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I edited go look.
Or this one? lol
+ Show Spoiler +Innocent Child Doctor Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:36 batsnacks wrote: I edited go look.
The one with Innocent Child is not significantly different than the one with the 1-shot cop. Scum will do the same thing, which is try to shoot for the Doctor, or maybe WIFOM and shoot for the cop. In fact, town is worse off in this scenario cause they don't even get the 1 in 12 chance for a red check. The 1-shot cop is basically a better Innocent Child.
E: unless you anticipate scum fakeclaiming with their 2 scum against 11 town, but let's be serious here, that's not happening. in a massclaim scenario town will be aware it is a 2-scum scumteam, even if they don't know much else.
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On October 01 2014 07:38 Blazinghand wrote:The one with Innocent Child is not significantly different than the one with the 1-shot cop. Scum will do the same thing, which is try to shoot for the Doctor, or maybe WIFOM and shoot for the cop. In fact, town is worse off in this scenario cause they don't even get the 1 in 12 chance for a red check. The 1-shot cop is basically a better Innocent Child. E: unless you anticipate scum fakeclaiming with their 2 scum against 11 town, but let's be serious here, that's not happening. in a massclaim scenario town will be aware it is a 2-scum scumteam, even if they don't know much else.
I'd give you a 3:1 odds on town losing any of those setups, any time.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:44 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:38 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:36 batsnacks wrote: I edited go look. The one with Innocent Child is not significantly different than the one with the 1-shot cop. Scum will do the same thing, which is try to shoot for the Doctor, or maybe WIFOM and shoot for the cop. In fact, town is worse off in this scenario cause they don't even get the 1 in 12 chance for a red check. The 1-shot cop is basically a better Innocent Child. E: unless you anticipate scum fakeclaiming with their 2 scum against 11 town, but let's be serious here, that's not happening. in a massclaim scenario town will be aware it is a 2-scum scumteam, even if they don't know much else. I'd give you a 3:1 odds on town losing any of those setups, any time. Asuming that town RNGs the lynches and doesn't claim, town will win those setups 33% of the time. Adding in claims only helps town. I don't see how you could fall below RNG levels of lynching.
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On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is
Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:48 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now.
I'm pretty sure Batsnacks is saying that town has no chance. I'm trying to argue that town has a chance. You are agreeing with me. Thanks.
Edit: the 33% is a _floor_ of how well town can do btw, town typically beats RNG outside of D1. Batsnacks thinks town has a less than 25% chance of winning any of these setups. That is the context for my discussion.
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On October 01 2014 07:49 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:48 HiroPro wrote:On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now. I'm pretty sure Batsnacks is saying that town has no chance. I'm trying to argue that town has a chance. You are agreeing with me. Thanks.
3:1 odds means I pay you 3x what you invest if town loses.
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On October 01 2014 07:49 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:48 HiroPro wrote:On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now. I'm pretty sure Batsnacks is saying that town has no chance. I'm trying to argue that town has a chance. You are agreeing with me. Thanks. Edit: the 33% is a _floor_ of how well town can do btw, town typically beats RNG outside of D1. Batsnacks thinks town has a less than 25% chance of winning any of these setups. That is the context for my discussion. You don't understand betting odds do you?
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
On October 01 2014 07:50 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:49 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:48 HiroPro wrote:On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now. I'm pretty sure Batsnacks is saying that town has no chance. I'm trying to argue that town has a chance. You are agreeing with me. Thanks. 3:1 odds means I pay you 3x what you invest if town loses.
Right, which means If we play 12 games and bet $10 on each game, and town RNGs every lynch, here's what happens:
4 games, town wins, which means I earn $120 8 games, town loses, which means you earn $80
as you can see, given that town has at least a 33% chance of winning, you would lose money if you took this bet.
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On October 01 2014 07:52 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2014 07:50 batsnacks wrote:On October 01 2014 07:49 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:48 HiroPro wrote:On October 01 2014 07:20 Blazinghand wrote:On October 01 2014 07:17 Xatalos wrote:On October 01 2014 07:15 batsnacks wrote:+ Show Spoiler + Innocent Child Mafia Goon Mafia Godfather Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Vanilla Townie Hmm... Hahah... That's an unlikely setup, but one that's still within the boundaries of C9++  There's like literally nothing wrong with that setup either. 11:2 Mountainous has an expected town winrate of about 1/3, and this setup is pretty close to that (with random lynches). Given that town won't be lynching purely randomly, and during D1 they'll have an innocent child to help out, this strikes me as reasonably balanced. This isn't even funny, honestly. You can't treat the chance of lynching mafia as being random on anything except day 1. Nobody runs 11-2 on TL because of how overwhelmingly town favored it is Mafia has to get 5 mislynches to win 11-2 lol and they can only lose a single player. If you seriously believe that's balanced, you need to remove yourself from the balance team right now. I'm pretty sure Batsnacks is saying that town has no chance. I'm trying to argue that town has a chance. You are agreeing with me. Thanks. 3:1 odds means I pay you 3x what you invest if town loses. Right, which means If we play 12 games and bet $10 on each game, and town RNGs every lynch, here's what happens: 4 games, town wins, which means I earn $120 8 games, town loses, which means you earn $80 as you can see, given that town has at least a 33% chance of winning, you would lose money if you took this bet.
If town wins, I win. I am betting on town losing.
Eh maybe I'm not being clear
I pay you... if town loses.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
OK wait can we talk like normal people instead of total weirdos? Instead of quoting random setups and saying "what about this one", batsnacks, why don't you directly state your opinion on c9++? Because now I'm reading these posts about betting and I have no idea what's going on.
Like here I'll ask you: do you think it's too town-favored or too scum-favored?
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Like just forget this lol. I'm only going to end up calling BH names if I continue this.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
I really don't care what I'd hypothetically be paid if I took a bet, I just want to know your position on the issue so we can, like, discuss it, since clearly I don't understand betting.
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On October 01 2014 07:55 Blazinghand wrote: OK wait can we talk like normal people instead of total weirdos? Instead of quoting random setups and saying "what about this one", batsnacks, why don't you directly state your opinion on c9++? Because now I'm reading these posts about betting and I have no idea what's going on.
Like here I'll ask you: do you think it's too town-favored or too scum-favored?
I have zero opinion on c9++ setups. Programming is a hobby/career of mine though, so it's fun messing with people's programs and seeing what I can break.
EDIT: I think the setups I posted are imbalanced though
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I'm just going to copy what I wrote a while back, but please don't run this setup on TL.
On December 30 2013 14:06 HiroPro wrote: The problem with c9++ is that it's boring and not balanced. It has numerous issues: an inability of mafia to properly deal with medic+cop/vig combinations, a number of setups that only contain 2 mafia and are unbalanced no matter what the roles, huge amounts of confirmed townies with vig/innocent child/mason running around and leaving mafia with no options at all on kills and no way to effectively kill all of them, mafia roles (godfather) that are completely worthless against non-cop roles but still get inserted and somehow considered more useful than a goon even when town has no cop. A lot of hosts who run a "variant" are lazy and just replace a few roles without actually considering what impact that has on balance. The only variant that I've seen that I would consider even somewhat acceptable is the one that bugs used to run.
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I'm no expert but that post seems pretty reasonable.
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Blazinghand
United States25551 Posts
I think probably it's best to stick with 3 mafia for a 13 player game, +1 possible SK
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