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On August 06 2014 14:25 Eden1892 wrote:i could swear i talked about the marv/hf thing. but in-between bouts of restless sleep awaiting poofter's return i could well have dreamt it i thought the vivax lynch made marv look significantly worse than hf because pre-edit: lol i did here you go, i just didn't use any names so it didn't make any sense Show nested quote +eh I guess it depends on Haru's flip really so I'm not putting much stock into it, but on balance I think scum are much more likely to follow a move at EOD rather than start one. path of least resistance and all
and I know that can be subverted, hence the "on balance" aspect basically marv was sitting around watching for someone to sheep almost, reading eod. he seemed lost which is really out-of-character for him imo. i can understand it to an extent, but i didn't really feel like vivax made sense and... i dunno it just looked convenient to hop on hyperconfident holyflare's lynch i almost never scumread people who drive a new wagon at EOD unless the original wagon flips scum, i'm sure one day someone clever like onceking will burn me for it but until it happens i've literally never seen scum drum up a town bandwagon at eod to counter another town wagon WITH ALL THAT SAID i'm likely tinfoiling if i seriously consider the idea of either of them being scum right now, i would guess this is a moot question because they get n1'd and n2'd
Does this imply that if haru flips scum, then you're hard scumreading marv?
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meh
what's a hard scum read?
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post coming up about EOD now that i've thought more about it, conclusions likely to be different from those implied in previous posts, standby
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OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why.
1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't.
2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped.
3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place.
4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven.
5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state.
6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven.
7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early.
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There was no case on Vivax. We killed him because omfg he was mean to us and fuck him anyway lolol.
Acting like a bad wagon can't be mafia driven is foolishness. There was tons of mafia motivation to turn the lynch onto Vivax at the last second. We now have two question marks in Haru and GD, and even if we kill both of them, it'll be hard to dictate exactly what the mafia was doing during day 1. It will take us days to decipher all of the information generated during the lynch because of the complexities, so saying it was town-motivated because it was easy is nonsense.
It's actually even more likely that the Vivax wagon was mafia driven because of the immense amount of confusion it generated in its wake.
You're grossly underestimating how badly this nonsensical third counterwagon hurts the town.
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On August 06 2014 14:54 Eden1892 wrote:
OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why.
1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't.
2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped.
3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place.
4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven.
5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state.
6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven.
7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early.
I really like this post. More of this plz, because I agree.
On August 06 2014 14:37 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2014 14:25 Eden1892 wrote:i could swear i talked about the marv/hf thing. but in-between bouts of restless sleep awaiting poofter's return i could well have dreamt it i thought the vivax lynch made marv look significantly worse than hf because pre-edit: lol i did here you go, i just didn't use any names so it didn't make any sense eh I guess it depends on Haru's flip really so I'm not putting much stock into it, but on balance I think scum are much more likely to follow a move at EOD rather than start one. path of least resistance and all
and I know that can be subverted, hence the "on balance" aspect basically marv was sitting around watching for someone to sheep almost, reading eod. he seemed lost which is really out-of-character for him imo. i can understand it to an extent, but i didn't really feel like vivax made sense and... i dunno it just looked convenient to hop on hyperconfident holyflare's lynch i almost never scumread people who drive a new wagon at EOD unless the original wagon flips scum, i'm sure one day someone clever like onceking will burn me for it but until it happens i've literally never seen scum drum up a town bandwagon at eod to counter another town wagon WITH ALL THAT SAID i'm likely tinfoiling if i seriously consider the idea of either of them being scum right now, i would guess this is a moot question because they get n1'd and n2'd You talked about it a bit, but Wave starting being Wave at me. Honestly, I'm still getting the disjointedness in his posting. He still feels totally calculated and robotic in his posting. It feels like his scumread on me is forced because I thought I gave him reasonable answers, so I don't know where that's coming from. And then his read winds up being 100% wishy-washy. I feel really paranoid this game.
I really hate this post.
'Wishy-washy' again, as if that's supposed to mean something, and I have no idea what 'wave being wave' means, coming from you, since you have no idea what I'm like.
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I really hate this post.
'Wishy-washy' again, as if that's supposed to mean something, and I have no idea what 'wave being wave' means, coming from you, since you have no idea what I'm like.
It's not wishy-washy. I think you're being suspicious.
And I've played with you like 4 times, so acting like I don't know what you're normally like is somewhat silly. Even if I didn't, I could dive your filter and come up with a general idea of your posting.
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Cav pls refute the logic I spelled out in my post if you believe the Vivax wagon was mafia-driven, I even went to the effort of putting it in an eight-step chain because I care.
I know there wasn't much of a case on Vivax, I've already called the lynch dumb a few times, but it doesn't matter to me if it's dumb or not. People fuck up and shit happens. What matters is making sure it was, in fact, a shit-happens fuck up and not deliberate sabotage - that is, town-driven vs scum-driven.
Your second paragraph literally doesn't even address my argument lol. It was going to take us days to sort out Haru and gobble and what the mafia was trying to do d1 anyway. All the Vivax wagon did is delay their flips a day at worst (if we decide they're still scummy enough to kill).
I don't really see how the Vivax wagon generated a lot of confusion. It just added another puzzle to solve, a puzzle whose solution's skeleton I've already been gracious enough to provide. I bet I can get a lot of useful info out of it before you and your boys n1 me.
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No, your argument is literally "mafia doesn't do anything crazy/unpredictable" and that assumption is nonsense.
Also, lol @ me being mafia. I wasn't even the one that had to put effort into debunking your case in yet you're still thinking this for some reason.
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No, my argument is that mafia in that situation don't have an incentive to do anything crazy/unpredictable and have an incentive not to do it, so on balance they're less likely to do it. It's not nonsense and your refusal to address any of the logic is pretty dumb if you're trying to convince me of anything.
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This is what I got from looking at EOD. Solely based on EOD behavior (and ignoring myself obviously lol) I get the following reads.
Vivax voters:
goodkarma - null. Was on Vivax wagon before it was a town indicator, wasn't around at EOD.
Holyflare - town. Pushed the shit out of Vivax wagon.
marvellosity - town. I misremembered marv's filter when I was describing my reservations to Wave. marv's thought process and post progression looks genuine here.
justanothertownie - town. Same as above minus the misremembering.
Artanis[Xp] - town. Same as above. In particular the comment shortly after the lynch about Vivax meta that was "out of frustration" looked townie to me.
HaruRH - null. Switched last second to save himself.
ObiWanShinobi - scum. Waffled forever and seemed way too worried about how he looked. Only switched because he got browbeaten into it to avoid an NL.
Tehpoofter - null. Switched last second to avoid an NL.
gobbledydook voters:
Vivax - [town]
kushm4sta - null. Stood his ground on the wagon he was pushing. Until we know the alignment of gobbledydook it's hard to say whether or not this is a good thing or bad thing.
HaruRH voters:
WaveofShadow - null. Wasn't around for EOD.
gobbledydook - null. Wasn't around for EOD except to make a last-second failed switch to Vivax to avoid NL.
Eden1892 - null. Wasn't around for EOD.
Combined with earlier impressions...
/towncircle Co.
Eden1892
Holyflare
marvellosity
justanothertownie
Artanis[Xp]/Onegu
Tehpoofter
kushm4sta
/kill Circle Co.
ObiWanShinobi
HaruRH
goodkarma
gobbledydook
WaveofShadow
Right now Wave is trending toward /towncircle Co. pretty hard and I think I want to just kill down the line there.
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Your argument is that the wagon was easy, so it has to be town-driven because there's no mafia motivation behind an easy third counterwagon onto a more experienced player. There couldn't be mafia interference because there's no case on Vivax, I mean...Really? What more could you ask for when everyone thinks that someone practically lynched themselves?
Even if both GD and Haru are town, there's plenty of motivation to take out a player that's really strong in the later stages of the game, because both of these players will end up being up for lynch later, if not immediately. It's like you refuse to acknowledge that anyone on the Vivax wagon could be mafia.
By your analysis, you're admitting that there isn't a single player on the Vivax lynch that could be mafia.
There's plenty of mafia motivation behind the Vivax lynch it's crazy that you can't see it. It actually kinda ticks me off, but you always do that so what do I know.
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ObiWanShinobi - scum. Waffled forever and seemed way too worried about how he looked. Only switched because he got browbeaten into it to avoid an NL.
You're a fucking idiot.
I regret signing up to play with you.
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Cav, you're (still) not actually addressing the argument as it's presented. I spelled it out very concisely, thoroughly and clearly earlier.
It's patently false that I said no one on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. I explicitly named half of the people on it as scum or null.
I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish with your current angle. You know good and well it's not going to convince me of anything, and as far as I can tell it's not convincing anybody else, either (although admittedly there's only been one person, Wave, online to comment).
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*[...] people on it as scum or null based on looking at their EOD behavior. [...]
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On August 06 2014 15:45 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
Your argument is that the wagon was easy, so it has to be town-driven because there's no mafia motivation behind an easy third counterwagon onto a more experienced player. There couldn't be mafia interference because there's no case on Vivax, I mean...Really? What more could you ask for when everyone thinks that someone practically lynched themselves?
Even if both GD and Haru are town, there's plenty of motivation to take out a player that's really strong in the later stages of the game, because both of these players will end up being up for lynch later, if not immediately. It's like you refuse to acknowledge that anyone on the Vivax wagon could be mafia.
By your analysis, you're admitting that there isn't a single player on the Vivax lynch that could be mafia.
There's plenty of mafia motivation behind the Vivax lynch it's crazy that you can't see it. It actually kinda ticks me off, but you always do that so what do I know.
Stop talking out your ass, being a jerk and put up.
You have a lot of great reasons as to why there is mafia motivation behind a Vivax lynch, but I have yet to see you talk about which mafia orchestrated the lynch in that case, aside from some offhanded comments about HF. If there is such a great deal of mafia pulling strings in the Vivax lynch, then who was it and how did they pull it off? Think about this and then ask yourself what is more likely.
Like...this quote
On August 06 2014 15:03 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
There was no case on Vivax. We killed him because omfg he was mean to us and fuck him anyway lolol.
Acting like a bad wagon can't be mafia driven is foolishness. There was tons of mafia motivation to turn the lynch onto Vivax at the last second. We now have two question marks in Haru and GD, and even if we kill both of them, it'll be hard to dictate exactly what the mafia was doing during day 1. It will take us days to decipher all of the information generated during the lynch because of the complexities, so saying it was town-motivated because it was easy is nonsense.
It's actually even more likely that the Vivax wagon was mafia driven because of the immense amount of confusion it generated in its wake.
You're grossly underestimating how badly this nonsensical third counterwagon hurts the town.
is all well and good, but it does us NO good at all to simply shoot down Eden's thought processes without actually coming up with real scenarios with real names like he did.
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On August 06 2014 15:53 Eden1892 wrote:
Cav, you're (still) not actually addressing the argument as it's presented. I spelled it out very concisely, thoroughly and clearly earlier.
It's patently false that I said no one on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. I explicitly named half of the people on it as scum or null.
I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish with your current angle. You know good and well it's not going to convince me of anything, and as far as I can tell it's not convincing anybody else, either (although admittedly there's only been one person, Wave, online to comment).
If a bunch of people you think are scum are on the Vivax wagon, then it is not a town-driven wagon.
Honestly, I'm going to take a break from posting for a while because both of you are frustrating me.
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On August 06 2014 15:55 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2014 15:53 Eden1892 wrote:
Cav, you're (still) not actually addressing the argument as it's presented. I spelled it out very concisely, thoroughly and clearly earlier.
It's patently false that I said no one on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. I explicitly named half of the people on it as scum or null.
I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish with your current angle. You know good and well it's not going to convince me of anything, and as far as I can tell it's not convincing anybody else, either (although admittedly there's only been one person, Wave, online to comment). If a bunch of people you think are scum are on the Vivax wagon, then it is not a town-driven wagon.Honestly, I'm going to take a break from posting for a while because both of you are frustrating me.
I disagree with that wholeheartedly. It was a marv-driven wagon. He drove people to vote for Vivax, simple as that. It is very difficult for town OR scum to resist the marv-pull. While I believe there were absolutely people of both alignments on the wagon, if you want to speak purely in majority terms, simply the fact that 8 people voted for Vivax and that there are only 3 scum means it IS a town-driven wagon.
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On August 06 2014 15:55 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2014 15:53 Eden1892 wrote:
Cav, you're (still) not actually addressing the argument as it's presented. I spelled it out very concisely, thoroughly and clearly earlier.
It's patently false that I said no one on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. I explicitly named half of the people on it as scum or null.
I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish with your current angle. You know good and well it's not going to convince me of anything, and as far as I can tell it's not convincing anybody else, either (although admittedly there's only been one person, Wave, online to comment). If a bunch of people you think are scum are on the Vivax wagon, then it is not a town-driven wagon.Honestly, I'm going to take a break from posting for a while because both of you are frustrating me.
Do you not understand what the driven part of that means? It means the mafia didn't put in active legwork to make it happen. Town did. If you want to just play numbers and ignore the context (which is an elementary mistake in the first place, but since you're going there...), eight people voted for Vivax and there are only three mafia, so the wagon is town-driven by default.
But that's not an interesting or useful conclusion. What is useful is analyzing the motive for town to form such a wagon last-minute as opposed to mafia. I've argued extensively why I think the town motive is much more plausible than the scum motive and you haven't begun to address any of it. In reverse, so far you've only argued that it added to the confusion - which really isn't true - and that it removed a competent late-game player - which I can't validate for accuracy either way, but even assuming it is true, is a pretty weak motive to me when weighed against the motives I gave for mafia not to do it earlier.
Hence, I think the main drivers of the wagon, Holyflare and marvellosity, are town, as were their two helpers justanothertownie and Artanis.
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Wagons can only be scum driven if there are more scum than town on them. Uhm, lol.
Also, I threw down two names so stop acting like I'm just shitting on people's thought processes.
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On August 06 2014 15:58 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2014 15:55 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On August 06 2014 15:53 Eden1892 wrote:
Cav, you're (still) not actually addressing the argument as it's presented. I spelled it out very concisely, thoroughly and clearly earlier.
It's patently false that I said no one on the Vivax wagon could be mafia. I explicitly named half of the people on it as scum or null.
I'm not sure what you're hoping to accomplish with your current angle. You know good and well it's not going to convince me of anything, and as far as I can tell it's not convincing anybody else, either (although admittedly there's only been one person, Wave, online to comment). If a bunch of people you think are scum are on the Vivax wagon, then it is not a town-driven wagon.Honestly, I'm going to take a break from posting for a while because both of you are frustrating me. if you want to speak purely in majority terms, simply the fact that 8 people voted for Vivax and that there are only 3 scum means it IS a town-driven wagon.
my ninja
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EPT
