Look, I can't help that you repeatedly summarized my argument with statements that were objectively, factually incorrect. I'm sorry if I didn't explain myself clearly enough; I can't even tell if that's the problem because I just cannot understand the feedback you're trying to give. I'm sorry that you get frustrated arguing with me, but you keep misrepresenting what I'm saying and I know you're smart enough to understand my points.

I am going to keep on with my analysis, because I think it makes sense, and I want to solve the game. You can pout in the corner about how mad I make you and how you don't want to play with me, and then point the finger if you are town and we end up losing because of me, if you want, but if you are town, then in the end we win or lose together. If you want to win, then you're going to have to live with it, because I'm not going to change the way I play the game to appease you.

I've got a game to win, and I don't care if you're on my side or not, I'm not going to let you stand in my way. If you have something to contribute then by all means go ahead, but I don't have time for the insults and the whining.

Onegu

United States9695 Posts

August 06 2014 07:13 GMT

#1683

Greetings, reading everything now.

gobbledydook

Australia2599 Posts

August 06 2014 07:35 GMT

#1684

On August 06 2014 14:54 Eden1892 wrote:
OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why.

1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't.
2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped.
3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place.
4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven.
5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state.
6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven.
7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.

We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early.

From my point of view:

I think there was never really enough traction on me to get me lynched, especially since Haru looked scummier than I did. Also from my perspective Haru is scum as I said, so therefore mafia needed an alternative target.
I think marv (who I read town) derped when he started the wagon, but we know that the wagon wouldn't have left the station if not enough people were on board. Here's where the mafia come in, they push the wagon over the critical mass and it causes a massive wreck. I believe there's at least 1 mafia, probably 2 in the vivax train. My guess would be Haru and poofter, in that order of confidence.

Onegu

United States9695 Posts

August 06 2014 07:43 GMT

#1685

On August 04 2014 08:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
I hate playing on iPad.
Oh well, eels for all.

Lol as I read from my iPad. And I need to buy a new note book.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 07:52 GMT

#1686

What about Obi? He's right in the same time slot as those two, his reasoning wasn't any better than them. I really think he's mafia here. He deliberately forswore any influence on the day's events and would intermittently pop in to complain about the thread direction without trying to fix it. Then he's spent most of the night phase complaining about the lynch and how bad it was and how it's clearly scum-driven, but he doesn't make a case on the people he names as the chief antagonists of this scum-driven lynch (marvellosity and Holyflare).

Regarding the other two, I can see Haru as a reasonable lynch, although he's second on the list for me after Obi. Haru feels a little more sincere to me. I could kill either but I want Obi first.

I understand where you (and some others) have been coming from re: Poofter but I'm pretty sure he's town. Call it a gut read I guess, I don't even have scum priors so I can't really speak to much authority on this point, but he just seems too carefree to be scum. You look at the stuff that he's done like the BMK reads, and sure it's something scum could plausibly do, but I feel like it's not something scum think to do, if that makes sense. I could be projecting because I know I get super serious when I play scum, but it's just difficult to be relaxed and do silly shit like that when you're constantly trying to avoid scrutiny. Remember the boring tell you cited earlier? I don't think Poofter has been boring at all.

Onegu

United States9695 Posts

August 06 2014 09:08 GMT

#1687

Glad I re read OP, was getting paranoid about night 0 claims and junk.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:21 GMT

#1688

On August 06 2014 11:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
Not sure why the switch off Haru onto Vivax.
Also it really sucks to only be around when very few people are.

I'm not sold on GD despite Vivax's ravings; aside from Haru (my thoughts have absolutely not changed---why, by the way was my case NEVER brought up throughout the ENTIRE deliberation as to whether or not people should vote him?) I think Cav is likely 2nd scum.
HF looks worse, marv is marv, kush still sueprtown and probably Eden is too? though for a guy who attempted to lead town throughout much of D1 he kinda petered off. Maybe stronger voices made it hard?

If it's any consolation, I did go back and read your case during the last hours of d1 there.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:24 GMT

#1689

Am I really the only one that thinks the Vivax lynch was brilliant?

Worst player getting lynched d1 and all that, eh Vivax.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:27 GMT

#1690

arguably we could argue for a ban for Vivax for playing against wincon, if you call me bad repeatedly and repeatedly ask me to lynch you, I am probably going to lynch you.

but he did it anyway and flipped town. Ban please.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 09:42 GMT

#1691

You seem awfully content to be completely unproductive for someone who typically gets shot n1, marv.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:43 GMT

#1692

what of it?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 09:47 GMT

#1693

You wanna not make me have to carry town again? Would be awesome. I wrote some shit I think has merit, feedback plz

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:48 GMT

#1694

i did read it but i can't remember it making me think anything. was it anything in particular, beyond obi mafia?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 09:53 GMT

#1695

You hf arty jat town, Obi scum, gk Haru poofy null based only on eod
Any of that sound right to you?

In particular lets lynch Obi, ja?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 09:54 GMT

#1696

Or hell even if no lynch on Obi, plz help me see how he's town b4 I tunnel massively

Phone posting sux

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

August 06 2014 09:57 GMT

#1697

I would ask spouse but he's being a useless shit and prolly sleeping around

(All the married women be like "AMEN")

marvellosity

United Kingdom36160 Posts

August 06 2014 09:58 GMT

#1698

If you're around in ~5 hours, I'll talk about it some then.

I don't really think obi is mafia but then again i'm struggling to find a 3 man team so maybe he is. I'm not much averse to you tunelling him to see how it goes tbh.