World Heavyweight Championship mafia III - Page 85

On August 06 2014 14:54 Eden1892 wrote:
OK so I think the Vivax lynch was dumb but town-driven. Here's why.

1. Either we had a mafia wagon out of Haru or gobble on d1, or we didn't.
2. If we had a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience, that the mafia have very weak thread presence. It's not difficult at all to deflect a lynch onto a townie on the first day, before anyone has flipped.
3. If the mafia have a very weak thread presence, then it is significantly unlikely that the Vivax wagon, which was generated very rapidly and effectively on very short notice, is mafia-driven, because if the mafia had the thread presence to generate that wagon that quickly, they would never have had a teammate up for a lynch in the first place.
4. If the Vivax wagon is not mafia-driven, then it is town-driven.
5. If we didn't have a mafia wagon on d1, that strongly implies to me, from past experience and analysis of incentives, that the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon. Generating a wagon is a risky venture for mafia because they have to fabricate a case and be public about pushing it, which puts them in the spotlight and forces them to work hard to look townie. Furthermore if they already have two town wagons set up, they're in an ideal spot. Not only do they not stand to gain anything from generating another wagon, they might accidentally cause a shakeup in some of the townies' thought processes with the sudden movement that causes the mafia to lose control of the situation. Mafia very strongly favor a static, not dynamic, game state.
6. If the mafia wouldn't have generated a third wagon (the Vivax wagon), then the Vivax wagon must be town-driven.
7. Regardless of whether or not the Haru and/or gobble wagons are town or mafia, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.
8. Therefore, the Vivax wagon is town-driven.

We need to be looking at people who were hesitant to jump on the Vivax wagon or change anything up. People who jumped on the wagon late in the turn, or people who were around during the last hour or so but didn't move their vote or acknowledge the shift much, are more likely to be mafia than those who got on the Vivax wagon early.

On August 06 2014 11:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
Not sure why the switch off Haru onto Vivax.
Also it really sucks to only be around when very few people are.

I'm not sold on GD despite Vivax's ravings; aside from Haru (my thoughts have absolutely not changed---why, by the way was my case NEVER brought up throughout the ENTIRE deliberation as to whether or not people should vote him?) I think Cav is likely 2nd scum.
HF looks worse, marv is marv, kush still sueprtown and probably Eden is too? though for a guy who attempted to lead town throughout much of D1 he kinda petered off. Maybe stronger voices made it hard?