EPT/in
Newbie Mini Mafia LV
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Epishade
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/confirm Can someone explain to me what a QT is? I think that's a chat channel, right? Do I have to create an account somewhere? Also, is information about each role going to be added to the op? | ||
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On April 26 2014 08:13 Koshi wrote: Miller doesn't know he is the miller btw. He get's a vanilla town role PM but is red to checks. I thought when it says miller is self-aware, that meant he knew that he was a miller. Am I wrong? | ||
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On April 26 2014 09:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: /confirm almost hit the edit button. You could have deleted your edit timestamp when you did though. | ||
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On April 28 2014 07:26 Cavalinho wrote: Well I'm out then. If you guys need an extra coach I'll pitch in, but I'm not sure if I fit the requirements. I was hoping you'd get cop and get lynched day 1 again lol. | ||
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Thoughts, Eden? | ||
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On April 29 2014 10:53 sqrtofneg1 wrote: So, how are you epishade? I am doing quite well. How about yourself? | ||
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On April 29 2014 10:53 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I've never seen you here, is this your first game? This is my first game of mafia. I've looked through the past few newbies games though and joined because I saw Meat sign up and wanted to lynch him. | ||
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On April 29 2014 11:41 MysteryMeat1 wrote: what uni do you go to and what are you studying? UNCC, Business major and CS minor. | ||
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On April 29 2014 11:58 ritoky wrote: I am not particularly a fan of this post, and a lot of the subsequent posts by sqrt. I understand that this is day 1 and information is at an all time low, but encouraging fooling around and then continuing to do so after some legitimate discussion has begun rubs me the wrong way. I also read Epishade's comments as deflective and dismissive. Unlike Bunnies and like you Epishade I am not convinced that yell0w is scum at all, but you seem to want to say "it's a joke, move on". I disagree, I think bunnies is right to apply pressure and see a response. It seems strange to me that you seem to want to simply move on before legitimate response has been explored. Sqrt screwed around a bunch at the start on the other newbie mafia games too, so that's not out of the ordinary for me. I think Bunny is pushing too hard for a comment made in jest. I may be wrong, and Yellow may be scum, but it seems to me that Bunny loaded that question against Yellow, and then when Yellow answered truthfully, that contradicted his comment he made before that was made in jest. I think Bunny could have just been aiming to paint Yellow in a potential scum-light, but then Yellow joked that "you caught me." Bunny decided to roll with it and vote for Yellow right then, as an easy way to get rid of someone quickly with the first lynch. | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:09 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Epishade looked at the other games, that's something to note. Lol I read the chaos that was the last newbie mafia game as it was happening. That's how I remember Calvinho getting lynched as cop day 1. I also remember from Artanis' funny pic + Show Spoiler + On April 03 2014 08:32 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Oh right, I still needed to post my fanart. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/SYhY4h1.png) (no offense to anyone, just poking fun!) | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:14 ritoky wrote: Really? Because to me, it seemed like bunnies was looking for 1 of 3 things to happen: 1) yell0w to get hyper defensive (which didn't happen) 2) yell0w to counter with aggression (which didn't happen) 3) or someone to deflect for him (which did) I don't think yell0w is scum right now at all, he responded how he responded. It wasn't ideal, but he is sticking to his story saying it was a joke and I don't read him as hyper defensive about it. But you seem to be very pushy about this entire topic and very heavily deflecting for him. It could just be a legitimate read and belief that it is a joke, but you could also be mafia deflecting for another mafia or mafia trying to deflect/pocket a town who faced early pressure. For the most part I simply don't like how you seem to want to move on from what I think is the only real substantive thing happening right now. Not wanting more information and more reads and more reactions tends to be a scummy thing. Hmmm, I guess I just felt that Yellow was getting unjustly accused of being mafia. I didn't want people to bandwagon on him for making a simple joke throught Bunny's influence. But you've convinced me of Bunny's actions. I take back my scumread on her. I can see how they might have been justified, without anything else to go on right now. She was just digging for information. | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:25 Eden1892 wrote: @Epishade: What's with your 180 here? Seems abrupt to me. How did you go from "loaded question, aiming to paint Yellow in a scum-light, easy way to get rid of someone quickly with the first lynch" to "just digging for information" off the first post? ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Epishade I had it in my mind that Bunny was attempting to get an easy 1st day lynch by making a bad accusation against Yellow. When I said that her actions against Yellow gave me a scumread, you said you didn't agree with me there. Ritoky also suggested that Bunny was getting information from Yellow, instead of trying to kill Yellow with the lynch. I thought that Bunny was pushing too strongly for very little reason, and that looked like scum behavior to me. Ritoky said that she was probably digging for information, and I thought that that was actually a pretty justifiable reason for her behavior. I changed my opinion on Bunny mainly from Ritoky's post, but you also disagreeing with my scumread made me think I might be wrong about the situation. I certainly didn't want to continue forth with Bunny being a scumread when you guys had changed my mind about her aggressive posting. | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:27 27ninjabunnies wrote: I mean, I'm all for reaction testing, but can someone explain to me why this is okay to do, and what I did apparently is scummy as fuck? Especially when I havent seen sweetfrost talk once? It's usual policy to lynch lurkers, isn't it? If they don't talk, they have no information they can bring. | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:44 27ninjabunnies wrote: I appreciate you taking into consideration others' read on me. But I would like to ask something. Why do you assume Yell0w is an easy d1 lynch? I thought that your attacks on him were spot on, if not for the fact that what he made at first was in jest. I was thinking others would disregard this fact and bandwagon onto the first scummy looking person to lynch day1. Although this new post from Yellow I'll admit is kind of weird. | ||
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"I thought your attacks on him would have been spot on...etc | ||
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On April 29 2014 12:51 27ninjabunnies wrote: The fact that everyone is reading his response as "in jest" is weird to me. How can you tell? Because I couldn't. Also, no one BW that. Could be mafia not wanting to bw on their partner? Still doesnt explain why you think that he is an easy d1 lynch. "So this sqrt guy sure seems to enjoy talking, so he's probably mafia." You didn't think him just bluntly stating that sounded at all like a joke? I know nobody BWed it, but I didn't think Yellow was scummy at all to begin with (before he made his recent post that is. Idk what to think of that). I didn't want to lose a potential town for making a joke IF people had started to bw against Yellow. I guess, as you say, you didn't think what he said was a joke. You thought he slipped up, while I thought you were attacking him because he was the first suitable person to attack based on his "slip-up." I wasn't sure how far you were willing to take it to make Yellow look bad (but as I now figure from seeing others reactions, you were probably just getting info), and I thought you were attacking him too strongly for nothing. That was what gave me my initial scumread on you. Then others convinced me otherwise that I was probably looking too hard into your attack and I don't have that scumread anymore. | ||
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On April 29 2014 13:15 dravernor wrote: Woah, this thread grew really quickly. 138 posts when I woke up. Serious conversation going on in here, I'm still catching up. From what I gathered is that Yell0w seems to be a suspicious character, he then cleared his name and is now back on the scum list? Sounds about right. | ||
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On April 29 2014 13:23 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, I see what you are saying here. But no, I don't think him bluntly saying that is a joke. And here are my reasons. 1. I'd say it just to get a reaction. Like if I say, oh, tamburini is mafia for wanting to be leader (which I blatantly said, yet no one defended or deflected off of that like they did on yellow). I got more of a reaction to my questioning of Yellow than I did with tamburini, which is why I went further into questioning on yellow. 2. I wanted to see what Yellow thought to my questioning, to see if we had the same read on sqrt. Because here is why. There are two types of mafia imo: The ones who lurk, and the mafia who tend to want to be the first to talk or talk the most. I wanted to see what Yellow read into Sqrt, as if he was thought Sqrt was the latter mafia. I guess we just had different interpretations of what he said, leading us to have different conclusions over how to handle it. I thought it was a clear joke and nothing more, but since you saw differently you attacked him. I didn't think the attack was warranted and that's when I got my initial scumread on you etc. I've posted my reasoning before. | ||
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On April 29 2014 13:52 ritoky wrote: See, that makes sense to me; but what doesn't make sense to me about your reaction is that you wanted the entire convo to simply go away/end. Which is why I read you as deflecting off of yell0w. If what you're saying is true, and you had a different view of the situation that led you to a scum read on bunnies; then why didn't you push hard back on bunnies? To me you read less so as accusatory toward bunnies and moreso as let's stop talking about this. It also seemed to me at the time, that you were setting yourself up in a bit of the "I told you so" position if yell0w ended up being a mislynch, which I also didn't like. But you have come around a bit for me, the openness in your change of opinion bought you back some credit for me, but I am still now sold on you as town, especially if yell0w appears any more mafia than he currently does when he comes back and starts typing. I had a scum read on Bunny, but I didn't want to push it too hard lest I be the only person that thought that way. I wasn't sure whether my read on her was good or not, so I didn't want to push it. Bunny seemed a little scummy to me then, but only because we had a different understanding of the situation. I wanted to hear what other people thought, then you and Eden convinced me that Bunny may have other motives and I changed my opinion. Also, just to be clear, is that a typo where you say "but I am still now sold on you as town,"? Did you mean to say "not" instead? | ||
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On April 29 2014 14:42 27ninjabunnies wrote: @Epishade: Do I really have to state all the reasons again?! okay, short version. 1. He called someone mafia (sqrt) because he talked a lot, when I questioned his read, he said he didn't think him talking a lot was actually indicative of mafia. So I called him out on this as being contradictory. He then was like, "Oh you caught me, I'm mafia" So I voted him. For these reasons: 1. Ive played games where mafia has claimed being mafia, even voted themselves, and still got by and won as mafia. 2. This reaction was terrible, why not actually answer the question, which he ended up avoiding completely, until like 3 pages later. 3. I used this as to get reads from Yell0w and other people via the reactions to my pushing/questioning. No, why did you feel the need to restate your reasoning? I understood your thought process after your last post. Idk why you felt like restating it again right here. My last post since then (spoilered below for reference) makes absolutely no contradictions against what you said before... + Show Spoiler + I had a scum read on Bunny, but I didn't want to push it too hard lest I be the only person that thought that way. I wasn't sure whether my read on her was good or not, so I didn't want to push it. Bunny seemed a little scummy to me then, but only because we had a different understanding of the situation. I wanted to hear what other people thought, then you and Eden convinced me that Bunny may have other motives and I changed my opinion. | ||
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Sqrt: I'm glad he sees me, Bunny, and Eden as town, but I'm not convinced that Yellow has defended himself well enough to be suspect town. Dfs brought this up, and I agree with him. I wouldn't mind hearing why Sqrt has reason to believe Yellow is town. I believe Yellow is town, but not enough to clear him as town yet, like Sqrt has. No real current read yet. Sweetfrost: 5 minutes after Dfs brings up that Sqrt clears Yellow as town, Sweetfrost restates what Dfs says without adding anything new from his own opinion. He does give his opinion on Bunny though by saying that he thinks Bunny is acting too hard as town and thinks it is making her look like a Scum trying to get town support. I disagree with this as I feel that Bunny was trying to get information. He also mentions her defending him when he got random voted by Eden as a possible support for his idea that Bunny was trying to gather town support, but I disagree with this too, as she didn't really defend him. This is all that she said: On April 29 2014 12:27 27ninjabunnies wrote: I mean, I'm all for reaction testing, but can someone explain to me why this is okay to do, and what I did apparently is scummy as fuck? Especially when I havent seen sweetfrost talk once? I don't see that as defending him at all. Eden casted his vote on Sweetfrost only because he hasn't spoken yet because he was in a different timezone. The vote didn't really mean anything, but Sweetfrost seemed to think he was defended by Bunny from the vote, or at least wanted people to think that was what happened. He also agrees on lynching Yellow without much provocation. I'm leaning scum on Sweetfrost for now. If Yellow does get lynched and flips scum, Sweetfrost clears town for me. Yellow: Yellow's confusing. I defended him earlier because I thought Bunny was pushing too hard for a joke, and now he seems to be a target again. I'm a little confused as to why, though. Do people still think he should be lynched for his jokes? I'm not against his lynch just yet, I would just like to get more reasoning on why Yellow's a suspect again. mtamburini: Bunny's been on Tamburini's case so far and I'm not satisfied with his replies to Bunny. He says that he's ready to lead town at the beginning of the game and then he doesn't mention it again. Don't you have to actively post and gain town support to be leader, and not just declare it at the beginning of the game? Regardless, that may have been a joke as well, so I won't get too far into that. What gets me is what he says here to Yellow as to why he wants to lynch Yellow. On April 29 2014 20:10 mtamburini wrote: What question do you want asked, I gave my reasoning on why Yellow should be lynched today.. His sarcastic remarks (joking posts to some) are highly indicative of an experienced mafia not knowing what to say in that situation when caught in a contradiction as bunny pointed out. Next he asks someone how he shouldve responded to that to look more towny. As town people you dont care about acting towny because you are town, as mafia you care about acting towny so no one finds out your mafia. I feel that, if you are town, but people think you are scum, you probably SHOULD care about acting townie. You don't want to get lynched as town because some people accused you of scum early on and it stuck. Yellow was wondering what a better response would have been, and I doubt that makes him look like scum at all. Tamburini really seems to want to lynch Yellow for reasons that I disagree with. He's my biggest scum lead right now. Amiko: I think Amiko is town. Being new to mafia, as I'm sure many others here are, I feel that including that tip of having a secret message for Masons was pretty good and could only lead town in not having to lynch a Mason town if worse comes to worse. That's a great benefit for town so there isn't a miss lynch, and I don't feel that a mafia would have given out information like that, even so they could appear to be more townie by sharing that useful information. In a vet game, it probably wouldn't have mattered, but here it does. Eden1882: I think Eden may be town, but Amiko brings up some points about Eden's interactions with Bunny that I would like to hear his response to. Meat: Hasn't really said all that much other than for me not to interfere with Bunny's attacks. No read. Dravernor: He has suspicions on me and Bunny for our interactions with each other, but more so on me for being defensive of Yellow early on. I've already explained my reasoning for doing so multiple times over, but I guess that hasn't persuaded him. In any case, I don't think he's scum. Neutral or slight town lead for me. Bunny: Bunny's been the most active person in the thread so far and seems to be working for town. As I said, I misread her early on. Town for me. mtamburini is my highest scumread right now. Bunny came up with him as an early scumread and I have to say I agree with it at this point. I realize as I post this now, it took me so long to get all my thoughts in here that some of the information I planned to include has already been brought up. Primarily Sqrt's response about Yellow being town and Bunny's response to Sweetfrost about defending against his vote. But I'll leave this as is, took me about an hour to look through all the information I wanted to look through and type down my thoughts here. | ||
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When I saw I'm not against Yellow's lynch just yet, I really want to hear why other people are pushing to lynch him. I don't seem any good reason to lynch him at this point to clear that up. | ||
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said* not saw. see* not see. | ||
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Haven't heard from you all day and you barely posted yesterday. When you finally do post, it's just to tell us not to worry and that you've been reading up with all of us, just didn't have anything to add. When you say you don't have anything to add, it sounds pretty scummy to me. Either you think that you can sit back and watch as us townies accuse the wrong people and lynch each other, or you don't want to help town by offering your thoughts on something. In either case, it doesn't look good. I'd suggest you post what you're currently thinking/scumreads or townreads. Lurking doesn't help town. | ||
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The main thing that I can see between these three is that all of them are pushing really hard for Yellow's lynch, but also clearing each other at the same time. Sweetfrost clears Ritoky as town and is trying to kill Yellow while attempting to discredit Bunny (and Sqrt) through these posts. On April 30 2014 05:43 Sweetfrost wrote: I can understand that it seems supicious that I don't want to voice an opinion on everyone in the game but since I'm not really sure what I think about the people I haven't talked about I feel it would be stupid to talk about them. I'm not going to give an state an opinion that I actually don't belive in. But I'm willing to say that I consider Ritoky cleared as town, I like his analysis and they don't seem supicious and he's not jumping on any bandwagons and instead making good independet analysis. I agree with him that sqrt posts are very numerous, short and prodding at people to make analysis all the time. I believe that it's a sign of sqrt being scum. So to sum it up. Cleared : ritoky Possible scum : Yellow/bunny and sqrt On April 30 2014 04:57 Sweetfrost wrote: Well as I stated I suspect Bunny being scum for his efforts of trying very hard to build up a positive relationship with everyone. See my previous posts. As for the rest I'm very unsure and still don't want to give a public opinion on anyone since it would just be misleading, I don't have an opinion on the rest yet. So the only thing I'm willing to say right now is that I don't trust Bunny and Yellow. Sweetfrost's plan was to undermine Bunny by saying that he thought she was trying too hard to play townie. I disagree and think Bunny was moving town in the right direction by engaging Yellow in that initial push. Ritoky has been slightly accusatory against Sqrt, which is in line with Sweetfrost's opinion on Sqrt as well, as shown in the post above. They are slowly building up support against Sqrt to lynch him at a later time it seems to me. On April 30 2014 05:26 ritoky wrote: sqrt:I don't know if it is a stylistic thing or what, but there's something weird here. Lots of prods, short comments, and question asking, not much in the way of legwork. Combine that with the lack of seriousness early on and it just strikes me as all very odd. I don't read him as projecting town in any way; whereas most other people I can read town aspects to what they do and say. My biggest problem with Ritoky though, is how quickly he changed his opinion on Yellow. He first decided that Yellow was likely not Scum when it seemed that pressure had been taken off Yellow. However, when Yellow was pressured again and started piggybacking off of what I said earlier, I think he saw an opportunity to bandwagon people against Yellow. On April 29 2014 12:14 ritoky wrote: I don't think yell0w is scum right now at all, he responded how he responded. It wasn't ideal, but he is sticking to his story saying it was a joke and I don't read him as hyper defensive about it. But you seem to be very pushy about this entire topic and very heavily deflecting for him. It could just be a legitimate read and belief that it is a joke, but you could also be mafia deflecting for another mafia or mafia trying to deflect/pocket a town who faced early pressure. ^Ritoky said this before Yellow got suspicion on him again. His wording here is what throws me off a bit. "I don't think Yellow is scum right now at all." He says this when pressure starts dropping off of yellow. Then, a little later on, Yellow is put back in the spotlight. Eden votes for Yellow, then Ritoky decides to join in by saying he isn't opposed to a lynch. I think he thought that, with other public support against Yellow outside of mafia, he'd be able to bandwagon against Yellow as the first lynch. On April 30 2014 13:15 ritoky wrote: @yellow: Regarding your opinion on mtamburini, it may just be a difference of opinion. But you were highly defensive and highly concerned with appearance. And I think it is very right that you are pressured heavily based on that fact. Regarding what you said about sqrt, I could not agree more with "he did seem to be trying to start conversations when there wasn't one, I just don't think he was doing anything when there was one". And in my mind he just did it again. He said there is nothing going on when you and I were clearly interacting. He just seems to be waiting for everyone else to play the game so that he can pick the winning side. Again, maybe it's a stylistic thing cuz basically nothing he says seems town to me so far, but I just can't find any reason to put him on the good side of the tracks Here is where he attempts to discredit Sqrt. Tamburini has been desperately trying to kill Yellow way too hard. On April 29 2014 12:43 mtamburini wrote: Bunnies I think we need to apply pressure back on YELLOW. How should I have responded? If your town you shouldnt care on how to appear more towny. This a classic rookie mafia mistake. ##VOTE: Yell0w I mentioned this before and I'll say it again. This sounds like a flimsy excuse to me to lynch someone. Obviously town SHOULD care that they appear townie. You want to try everything possible to stop from getting lynched. Acting town AS A TOWNIE is the best way to accomplish that. He even continues his assault below. On April 29 2014 12:52 mtamburini wrote: Fuck that shit no one is off the table today, I want this Yell0w person to die after everything thats happened. 1 Sarcasm 2 Asking how I can be more towny is not towny. These are 2 really good reasons to push harder on Yell0w. I liked bunnies initial push but wasnt ready to jump on board just yet, wanted Yell0w to talk some more and see what they had to say, and I did not like anything said so far. I believe Tamburini was trying to get Bunny back on Yellow's case so that she might rally other people in support against Yellow so that he and his group would be able to vote for Yellow with the majority of Town. On April 30 2014 01:16 mtamburini wrote: I like this fellow. Has not said much of anything but has picked up on something that no one else had really brought up (maybe not even thought about too) Can you give more details on yellow and/or anyone else? When dfs comes into the thread and says something against Sqrt, Tamburini says "I like this fellow" and basically nothing else. Once again, he's working one small step at a time to get support against Sqrt with his team. Then he asks dfs what he thinks about Yellow and/or anyone else. He doesn't just say "Can you give more details on anyone?" He makes sure to include Yellow outside of that 'anyone else' so that dfs would be more likely to respond specifically on Yellow. Then, if dfs thought that Yellow was scum, Tamburini would have even more support to lynch Yellow. ------------------------------ I believe that Eden had some good reads to come up with on Yellow (like that he wasn't actively scumhunting) that led to him arriving to vote at Yellow at his own discretion. I still wouldn't classify Eden as scum, but I do disagree with his vote. tldr: I think Tamburini, Ritoky, and Sweetfrost are all scum for a couple of factors. They all want to get rid of Yellow. They've shown distrust in me and Bunny, whom I would consider the most town player here so far. They have cleared each other at different times (Tamburini as an exception, hasn't cleared Ritoky and Sweetfrost, but has been cleared by them). And, they've all shown support against Sqrt as well, which I assume is to lynch him easier down the road. | ||
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Sweetfrost actually voted for Sqrt while Tamburini voted for Yellow. That is quite strange to me, but Sweetfrost could have been keeping his vote on Sqrt early, just to switch on Yellow when more people jumped on Yellow so he doesn't look as scummy. His rationale for voting Sqrt was just that he thought either Bunny or Yellow was scum, but not both, so he didn't want to risk it and voted Sqrt. I don't think anybody else has any real fear of Bunny being actual scum right now, and her actions read town to me, so I think Sqrt was covering his tracks through his action here, ready to switch the vote out later when people started calling Yellow scum again. | ||
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Also, a lot of his posts follow logic and reasoning, such as some I'll throw below. On April 30 2014 04:39 sqrtofneg1 wrote: I don't like the fact that yellow is under suspicion. I don't think he's mafia. Joking and sarcasm is perfectly fine in the early stages of the game. That post was from the early stages of the game. I don't think this warrants a case against yellow. The only fault I see so far is that he should be contributing a bit more. Which can also be said for a lot of others. I agree just about completely here. Yellow was under suspicion for making jokes, which was why I ended up defending him early on. Sqrt comes up with the same conclusion as I do, that the suspicion wasn't warranted. On April 30 2014 02:41 sqrtofneg1 wrote: EBWOP *Eden was clared because he's been asking good questions. However, he's a bit more low tone than last game, so I think I need to keep an eye on him. I agree with this too. I read through that last game as it was running and Eden got shot day1 as town because of how well he was doing. He seems to have taken a step back this game, but is still contributing, just not as much. It's something to take notice of. On April 30 2014 02:36 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Amiko has been talking, and his posts make me think that he's seriously trying to figure this one out. Cleared. @dfs, This post, his first post, makes me think that he's mafia. Everyone is mafia, according to him, until proven otherwise. This is the small point that made me suspicious. Generally, you think people are town until proven mafia. I've cleared yellow as town, but at the bottom of the scale. Why? It's because I have greater suspicions on other people, and those other people are pushing yellow. Eden was cleared because he's been asking good questions. He's a bit more low tone than last game, so I think I need to keep an I on him. I have the same suspicions as Sqrt. I believe that the people pushing for Yellow's lynch are more suspicious than Yellow himself. | ||
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On April 30 2014 15:42 MysteryMeat1 wrote: It is way tooo early in a mafia game to start trying to pocket someone this hard. Literally at least half of his posts are bunny lets do this, bunny lets do that. She ain't your gf bro. Also I like how in the last post i quoted, dfs points that yellow has been cleared and tamburini asks for details on yellow first and mentions other people as an after thought. I literally just brought that up in my big post 40 minutes ago or so. | ||
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Alright, well, it's 3 AM over here now, so I'm getting off. I'll have to see what everyone thinks later. | ||
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@Dravenor about me editing my post I reread what I wrote before I posted it, in saying "I thought that your attacks on him were spot on, if not for the fact that what he made at first was in jest" It seemed like an alright sentence in itself to me when I first read it. The first part (I thought your attacks were spot on) is only contingent if the second part isn't true (that his comment was made in jest). After I posted, I wasn't sure if I made that contingency clear enough and that I thought Bunny's attack's were misguided. It might not have exactly needed the extra edit, but I didn't want people reading into something else that wasn't there if I could have been clearer about it. @Amiko about responding to your Tamburini points On April 30 2014 14:04 Amiko wrote: On mTamburini: I feel the core of suspicion on mtamburini is that he voted for yell0w after ninjabunnies moved off of him. From my point of view, that action is not scummy for these reasons: (1) I think ninjabunnies’ push on yell0w was fine. I mean, I wasn’t about to lynch yell0w for those early posts, but the inconsistency (even if it was a joke) was a fine thing to push him on. (2) tamburini voted for yell0w after bunnies moved her vote off of him. To me, this doesn’t really seem like a mafia play. I usually think scum would want to join a growing lynch to give it support, but here tamburini seems to want to re-open a case that doesn’t seem to have support. This doesn’t feel scummy to me. (3) I think tamburini had a fine reason to bring new pressure to yell0w. I don’t feel like yell0w asking “What was the ideal response?” is strongly scum indicative, but again, it’s something I feel pressure. That said, I need more from mtamburini's - his posts so far have been too focused on yell0w. If he wants to push a lynch, that’s fine, but I want to see some interactions with other players. If yell0w isn't the lynch, it'll be tough to draw new conclusions on mtamburini because he hasn't weighed in on some of the other players. @mtamburini: Please comment on Eden. In particular, could you discuss Eden’s case on yell0w? Also, is there anything about the timing of Eden's case on yell0w that strikes you as unusual? (I haven't reread enough to decide for sure whether there is, but I think there might be) (1): I believe that Tamburini here was sort of teaming up to vote for Yellow with Bunny (along with whomever else she convinced to join against Yellow). If it were just this fault that I'd give Tamburini, I don't feel I'd be all that suspicious about him. (2) and (3): This is where our opinions may differ a bit. I agree, it doesn't seem like Tamburini would want to (as scum) open up a case without support. That's why Tamburini labels Yellow's new comment, "What was the ideal response?" as evidence towards Yellow being scum. Yellow was just in the spotlight before, so it wouldn't be too difficult to gather more support against him if there was another piece of evidence. However, I don't see Yellow's comment as actually being scumworthy evidence. I think Tamburini was trying to draw attention to what Yellow said by saying how scumlike it was for him to ask such a question. It felt way over the top for me, and I don't think the comment was scummy at all. Yellow says he asks this to learn how to act more town, and Tamburini claims that you shouldn't act more like town because you should already be town. It just doesn't make sense to me, and those two of Tamburini's claims are what puts him high on my scumreader for me. *When I typed out my response for your second point, I realized it kind of tied into the third, so I just put them together. | ||
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He got 2-dayed for making a joke in the TB has cancer thread. | ||
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On May 01 2014 07:19 mtamburini wrote: Explain the benefits of me claiming Bird Jesus as mafia to only survive one more day according to your logic. What do you mean 'according to my logic'? I agree, there's not much benefit to surviving one more day as mafia by claiming Bird Jesus, especially when anybody else would be able to counterclaim (which I would highly doubt would happen at this point.) I was going to type more about why your claim was an awful move, but I refreshed and Eden pretty much covered anything I was going to bring up. That also means I was wrong to have you as a suspect in my scumread team, but I still haven't ruled out Sweetfrost and Ritoky as mafia. #Unvote: mtamburini | ||
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1. Tamburini is vigi, and we lose a confirmed town, albeit, one that had little chance of surviving after that claim anyways. 2. Tamburini is serial killer, and we don't have a vigi. In this scenario, Tamburini took his risk that town might not have a vigi. Town actually didn't get a vigi because nobody called him out on it. 3. Tamburini is serial killer, and Meat is vigi (lol). Meat can't call him out on it because he's currently banned. I'm laughing just writing this one out. One thing I'm having trouble understanding again is why we WOULD even vote for a potential vigi. I'm having trouble believing that he's anything but vigi when he took a HUGE risk by claiming it. If there were any other vigi's in the game, he'd be called out immediately. I just can't see that being the case, unless Meat is vigi and he can't talk right now. I think Eden's large post brought up some good points about Tamburini being serial killer, but I'm not willing to risk it. He's a town right now for me, and I think Eden's willingness to vote a vigi claim to potentially get rid of a serial killer looks scummy. I mean, worst case scenario, he gets shot the next night and we find out he was vigi then. If he doesn't die and nobody else dies during the night, we can figure that he was protected from 1 kp as serial killer. I don't know why we would waste a lynch here on him, unless I'm overlooking something. Sweetfrost was my next scumread candidate, so I'm switching vote to him. ##VOTE: Sweetfrost | ||
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I am finding it pretty hard to look past Eden voting for Tamburini when Tamburini claims vigi. It just doesn't make sense. Tamburini wouldn't claim vigi as a serial killer in the CHANCE that there's not already a vigi in the game. My mind's been a little jumbled lately since Tamburini roleclaimed because that threw my most likely candidate for scum out the window. But I really don't like Eden voting on a potential vigi, especially when that vigi is going to either die from mafia or get roleblocked later. It's a whole waste of a lynch on a potential confirmed town. I'm changing votes to Eden. I can't see a good possible reason to lynch Tamburini anymore, as much as I didn't like his roleclaim. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE Eden1892 | ||
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On May 01 2014 12:01 Eden1892 wrote: Why not? Nothing in the ruleset forbids multiple of the same role from appearing in the game. My turn for questions. 1) Why are you guys just blindly lining up to believe a role claim that makes no sense whatsoever from a townie POV and plenty of sense from an sk POV? 2) Epishade, what happened between "I think Eden's post brought up some good points about tamburini being the serial killer" to "tamburini wouldn't claim vigi as a serial killer"? You flipped on that in the span of an hour with no explanation. No, it doesn't. You know better than this. You don't even have to look further than the last newbie claim to know my attitude about fishy claims on the first day. If I think I've got a legit read on someone as being anti-town, I don't give a fuck what they say they are, if they can't prove their claim in a reasonable way, I'm not trusting it. Cavalinho had no realistic way of verifying he was the parity cop last game, I lynched him without batting an eye d1 because I thought he was scum. tamburini can't prove his claim at all because there's no way to tell that he isn't the serial killer, I'm lynching him without batting an eye d1 because I think he's serial killer. If I'm wrong, no big deal, it's a setback but tamburini hasn't been helping us win at all with his behavior d1 and we're not going to win or lose based on power roles anyway. If I'm right, we just cut the anti-town kp in half on the first day. The choice is obvious to me. How is it not to you? Oh crap, you're right about the number of roles given. I missed that and thought there could be only person playing each role (disregarding masons). That does change my understanding now of the situation. I was under the impression that Tamburini wouldn't dare call vigi without actually being vigi because he'd get called out if there were any other vigis in this game, but that scenario actually can't happen now, and does possibly point to Tamburini being a possible serial killer. For your answer to your 2nd point: Honestly, I thought that it was suspicious of you to be so certain of Tamburini being serial killer when he claimed because I thought there was no way he would claim vigi if someone could call him out on it. The possibility of multiple vigis in this game changes quite a bit for me, as I can now see why Tamburini might claim vigilante to avoid being lynched as possible serial killer. I had you viewed as slightly scummy before in my first post too (before I switched my vote to you), but wasn't sure if I wanted to continue or not. Then Sqrt posted and I thought I must not be alone in my reasoning. However, can you explain why my reasoning might be faulty in my other post, then? I think it still stands, but again, I may be missing something that you're seeing. "I mean, worst case scenario, he gets shot the next night and we find out he was vigi then. If he doesn't die and nobody else dies during the night, we can figure that he was protected from 1 kp as serial killer. I don't know why we would waste a lynch here on him, unless I'm overlooking something." | ||
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My question is, do we still attempt to lynch him, or let mafia take care of him in the chance that he's actually vigi so we can lynch someone else? Serious question, I don't know the best course of action. ##Unvote: Eden1892 | ||
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On May 02 2014 09:00 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Shoot, didn't put down the point that epishade brought up in the post. Here it is: This is after Epishade townreads sweetfrost. I think you made a mistake, I didn't townread sweetfrost. I scumread him with my scumteam post, and then I made this post because his vote made little sense to me. It kind of contradicted with what I thought earlier about the scumteam consolidating votes, but then I found reasoning for it (in that he could switch later) and wanted to explain that as an appendage to my scumteam post. Sweetfrost did little to actually defend himself. Lynching him gave us information to move forward. It sucks that he ended up being town, but I don't think voting for him was the "wrong" move given the information we had to work with at the time. As for your claim that I was piggybacking on Bunny's vote on Sweetfrost: I may have been doing that a bit. I generally want to see what other people think about my theories before I try pushing them. Other people may see things that I overlooked. If it turns out that they agree with them, I figure I didn't overlook anything and I'll continue with my theory. It might make me look scummy, but I think it'd look worse withholding this information if someone else found it later - but I did the same thing before with Tamburini. I made my scumteam post, then Meat agreed with me and voted for Tamburini, and then I voted for Tamburini as well. I believe my theories are correct when I come up with them (who wouldn't believe in their own theories?), but I always accept the possibility that I'm probably way off. I judge other people's acceptance of my theories as to how well my theories are and if I should continue with them or not. Even if Bunny didn't end up voting for Sweetfrost though, I still would have. It was a toss-up between Tamburini and Sweetfrost for me, and I felt that Sweetfrost was a better pick between the two. I did switch a lot too. One of those switches was on Eden, but that was only because I thought there could only be 1 potential vigi in the game. Eden cleared that up for me and I admit I read the rules wrong. And, hell, everyone was just arguing for and against Tamburini and Sweetfrost that I didn't know who to pick. Ended up going with Sweetfrost in the end obv, but I didn't make up my mind until a couple hours before the lynch. | ||
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On May 02 2014 09:37 ritoky wrote: You asked what I thought about a previous event...dunno how I was supposed to get to future implications from that. Personally I am going to have to agree with Tamburini on this one. Talking too much at night is just plain bad imo. I have my interpretation of what happened and a path that I will personally push for if I am alive. Explaining that now I don't really see as the greatest idea. That, and results of night actions could change that pov. Can you explain why this is for me, as a new player? | ||
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Ritoky seems to be still unwilling to accept my defense of Yellow that I've given before multiple times. I view this as stubborn town more so than anything. The fact that I placed him in my scum team along with Tamburini and Sweetfrost is also enough reason for me to see his justification in his thinking I'm scum. When those two turned up not mafia (well, I think it's clear Tamburini isn't mafia anyways), I'm not surprised he thinks I'm mafia leading town astray and wants to get rid of me. He's also suspicious of Sqrt because Sqrt believes I'm town. Probable town for me. Sqrt has been talking a lot and attempting to get everyone's reads on the situation. He may not be doing the most in-depth scum hunting in this game right now, as it seems he's asking a lot of small questions and leaving small responses, but I don't find that indicative of scum. He suggests other people do the theories and scum-hunting and stuff, but I feel that he's getting the information out there for people to actually use when someone does come up with some more theories. I felt that he was town early in this game because a lot of his responses seemed to be exactly what I was thinking at the time and were based on logical conclusions. Also probable town for me. Eden seems to have a lot of town contributions under him. He pushed for that Tamburini vote pretty hard after Tamburini claimed vigi. I feel that we should have let the problem work itself out, and it seems to have done so for now. I think we're pretty clear that Tamburini isn't mafia at this point (that would have been a BOLD claim for Tamburini to make if he were) and I still think we get more information out of lynching other suspected people. Neutral for me right now. Sorry if I'm a bit slow in responding, this mouse and keyboard I'm working with sucks, and I refreshed in chrome to see new responses and my whole reply I had typed up got deleted! (lol). It doesn't do that in firefox dammit! | ||
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I really hope Yellow isn't mafia because then I'm screwed lol. | ||
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Dravernor started out thinking that me and Bunny were scum early on. I might understand thinking EITHER myself or Bunny was scum, but I think it's weird to pin us both down as suspicious. If anything, I'd say I acted more suspicious than Bunny in that situation because I was defending someone, so it's a little strange he suspected both of us. I feel like he could have been waiting to see what other people thought about the situation so that he might jump on either one of us if people selected one of us to lynch. On April 29 2014 14:18 dravernor wrote: I think we've been off to a pretty aggressive start already tbh. I now think I am going to be useless at this game because everyone and no-one looks scummy. I think the top two suspects here in my eyes are Epishade and 27ninjabunnies as they have been pressing and deflecting the most for what looks like an early lynch. But, the game is still young and I don't really know many of you yet, so I could be reading wrong completely. Then he says he doesn't believe Yellow is scummy for pretty much no reasoning. On April 29 2014 14:19 dravernor wrote: For some reason Yell0w doesn't strike me as scummy, despite all the posts about him. If Dravernor were scum, I can see how this would be an act of going half-way. He says he believes in Yellow's innocence here but doesn't rule out the "possibility" of lynching him if the tides were to turn against Yellow. So basically, he sets himself up for a potential bus in case things go wrong. He continues in taking the side of Yellow's probable innocence, and still doesn't give much reason for his choice. On April 30 2014 02:29 dravernor wrote: Hmm, I'm still not sure about Yell0w, he really doesn't seem too suspicious to me after the initial frenzy around his nonchalant post about being mafia, but I am not ruling him out, just watching carefully. He did contradict himself though, as bunnies pointed out. Also, you make a very good case about Eden - he did throw around a few votes. It definitely didn't go unnoticed that he voted dfs in the same post he said we should give the Euros a chance to wake up before accusing. I'm going to filter Eden's posts when I have a bit more time and try to figure this out. It turns out that I was still too sleepy to read the posts made before I woke up, so I am rereading through to make sure I understood things properly. I could be reading into this too much possibly, and he just didn't really feel like taking a side, but I feel that during a time where most people were talking directly about Yellow and taking sides, it's suspicious that he was reluctant to. He's since moved Bunny to town (which I agree to) and me to scum (for my defensiveness early on). However, his recent thoughts on Yellow have changed quite a bit as well. On May 01 2014 02:22 dravernor wrote: Hello everyone, sorry, I have had a tiring few days at work. I am back now. You have left me a lot to catch up on. First off: @Amiko I think maybe my problem is that I am an easily persuaded person. If I think someone looks scummy, filter them, read other arguments against them, I can easily be convinced. When that person makes a good post in their own defense, I go back, read their filter and try to see it from their point of view. I then become uncertain. Hence getting back on the fence quite often. When I said everyone/no-one looks scummy, I meant that no-one was doing anything OBVIOUSLY scummy at the time but so early on in the game it is hard to get a read on people, and there were very small things like word choices here and there and phrasing that could be interpreted as scummy by almost every player. Which left that sort of conundrum of an 'everybody/nobody'. As for the overly aggressive/defensive quote, it was more that Epishade and Yell0w were very defensive, and bunnies was very aggressive. This too was early on in the game and before I got around to understanding how bunnies was just trying to put on pressure to get reactions and get the conversation flowing some more. Now I definitely appreciate that pressure as it has revealed a lot more about the players in question and given the rest of us a chance to look at them more in depth. Thus my read on bunnies has gone from a possible scum play to probably the most town. She really seems the most proactive in hunting right now. This however does backtrack on my initial possible theory of a clever Epishade/bunnies diversion. I had pretty much discarded this theory anyway in favour of only one of them being scum, and I am still swinging towards Epishade. This post is probably what set me off most. He then edited it to say *'would have been spot on'. Was his initial post his thought flow? The edit came two minutes after, which seems to me to be a short enough space of time for him to correct a genuine grammar mistake, rather than him reflecting on his wording. This post happens just before he starts defending Yell0w, which then of course raises the possibility that instead of an Epishade/bunnies mafia we could possibly be having an Epishade/Yell0w mafia - as a few of you have already pointed out, most notably in Eden's post: As Amiko said, I am quite a non-committal person and I know myself well enough to know that I am easily persuaded by good arguments. I'm well aware it is a flaw for this type of game, so I am going to do my best to stick to my convictions from here on in until the suspect player can prove themselves innocent. My thoughts on Eden - His initial willingness to vote random people for the smallest of reasons was what made me raise an eyebrow, especially as he voted for dfs in the same post he said to give the Euros a chance to post. This made no sense to me. It seemed as though he was willing to cast his vote in any direction for no apparent reason. I have since learned from Amiko that it is a way of getting people to talk about it and possibly force some conversation and defensiveness out of the person targeted. It still struck me as strange though. I am still on the fence on Eden, I think I need to reread his filter, and I will perhaps double post with my thoughts. I will just say that he provided a strong case against Yell0w in my opinion. Prior to that I had been very obviously on the fence about Yell0w. Which brings me to Yell0w. I don't mean to BW here, but my suspicions have since been raised. At first I thought it was pretty unfair that he was being targeted for a joke, but his comments afterwards made me wonder what the hell he was up to. He clearly didn't respond well to bunnies' pressure which made him a prime suspect (and lead to my interest in Epishade). I then thought perhaps I was reading too much into him and went back to my little fence to watch some more when Eden produced that case study that pushed me a little. Whilst I am still not 100% convinced that Yell0w is scum, he is going to remain high up on my watch list. I guess I am leaning more towards Epishade being scum and if I am right then Yell0w will be the next on my list, but until then I am going to reserve my opinion until I have a little more evidence for Yell0w. sqrt I really don't understand. He has been posting a lot, and most of them are short posts asking for information on other players. I'm not sure what to make of this at the moment, it could either be extremely town or extremely mafia. It is town in that he is pushing for conversation and wanting input from others (which is a good thing), but I think it could also be pro mafia strategy to avoid giving out too much information himself - the more he asks other people for info and their reads the less he has to talk about his own. I don't like this much. I also get the feeling he is very abrupt. He doesn't beat around the bush much, but when he does he is quite hazy on his views unless pushed to expand. Even then they are fairly short explanations and not really an explanation of his thought process. I actually just noticed that ritoky mentioned the same things and sqrt responded saying it was his posting style. I think that maintaining that posting style is going to keep him in a negative light for me because I won't get around to understanding him as much as I would like to. I have a lot more to say on the other players actually, but I don't have enough time right now. Will continue a bit later, and tomorrow is a holiday so I will have PLENTY of time to analyze and read cases. The players I am planning on covering in a bit more depth need a bit more research time for me. Here he says he is quite suspicious of Yellow now. It's quite a change, and for reasons I still don't fully understand, but his change from Yellow as probable town (for whatever reason idk) to Yellow as suspicious, at a time when he still could have gone either way based on other people's thoughts on Yellow and not have had people think twice about his decision to do so, leads me to a few choices based on different scenarios. If Yellow flips town, I'd say Dravernor looks a little scummy in this instance, but not enough to convince me of being full-blown mafia. There's still a possibility that he was concerned that Yellow's strange acting and responses made him think Yellow was scummy enough for him to switch his vote convincingly. If Yellow flips scum, Dravernor is clear town. Right now, I'd say Dravernor is neutral for me. Not enough evidence to lynch him. If anything, lynching Yellow would give everybody the most information we'd need right now to move forward, based on whose sides people have taken for and against Yellow. Though I don't like lynching someone I think is town, especially after I defended them so strongly in the beginning of the game, I think it would give us the most useful information. If someone can convince me to move to a better vote, or something else big happens, I'm not opposed to changing it to someone better. But just for now, ##VOTE: Yell0w | ||
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On May 03 2014 18:40 MysteryMeat1 wrote: well first off, its good to be back. I promise from now on ill be posting a lot more so if you have any questions please let me know! As for reads i'm suspicious of anyone that voted for sweetfrost except for bunnies casue i think she is town. I think it is almost guarenteed that mtamburini is vig as there have been no counterclaimes and that he was roleblocked. Im vanilla town and unfortunately i don't have a role. Just a loyal worshipper of the helix. I think ashwanti is town just cause he voted for me and the fact that i wasn't particualrly active. If bunnies doesn't die at night within the next couple of nights i would like to this she is mafia. However due to the fact that vigi is already known i expect her to live a few more nights which is unfortunate. As for now i'm pretty suspicious of epishade. I think dfs is town just cause his thoughts above are soo wrong. You're suspicious of anyone that voted for Sweetfrost when the two main choices to lynch that day were Sweetfrost and Tamburini. But then you also think Tamburini is guaranteed vigi? Who else were we to vote for? Some random? I believe Yellow might have been the better third choice to vote for out of the two (or some people have it out for Sqrt, too) if it came to it, but nobody was really pushing too hard for either of them by the time people started voting. And then there were the outlier voters. I think it's weird you would find it suspicious of people to vote for someone who hadn't given us much defense not to vote on him, when the other person on the chopping block was probable vigi. I also think it also doesn't look that great either that you think Ashwanti is town just because he voted for you when nobody else did. It could very easily be a mafia voting another mafia here (with no real threat behind it because you weren't on the chopping block) as a way to make Ashwanti look more townie. Then, if you two were mafia partners, you would want to bring it up that he voted for you as a way to make him appear more town in case you were lynched or killed soon and flipped scum. | ||
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On May 04 2014 12:00 MysteryMeat1 wrote: so you're saying tamburini isn't vigi? How did you interpret that from my post? On May 04 2014 11:32 Epishade wrote: You're suspicious of anyone that voted for Sweetfrost when the two main choices to lynch that day were Sweetfrost and Tamburini. But then you also think Tamburini is guaranteed vigi? Who else were we to vote for? Some random? I believe Yellow might have been the better third choice to vote for out of the two (or some people have it out for Sqrt, too) if it came to it, but nobody was really pushing too hard for either of them by the time people started voting. And then there were the outlier voters. I think it's weird you would find it suspicious of people to vote for someone who hadn't given us much defense not to vote on him, when the other person on the chopping block was probable vigi. I also think it also doesn't look that great either that you think Ashwanti is town just because he voted for you when nobody else did. It could very easily be a mafia voting another mafia here (with no real threat behind it because you weren't on the chopping block) as a way to make Ashwanti look more townie. Then, if you two were mafia partners, you would want to bring it up that he voted for you as a way to make him appear more town in case you were lynched or killed soon and flipped scum. | ||
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On May 05 2014 05:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: #2 is a stupid point. I don't even like epishade. And you have done very little to contribute to town, besides asking weird questions that basically go nowhere.  | ||
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On May 05 2014 09:06 Eden1892 wrote: Says the guy who didn't make a serious attempt to rebut the case against sqrt or himself, or to push Yell0w, his mafia read, as a superior lynch to sqrt, his apparently strong town read. You'll forgive me if I'm unimpressed. If you really felt this strongly about sqrt being innocent, where the hell were you today? Also, Yellow's not my mafia read. Yellow's my information read. I really didn't want to lynch Yellow all that much either though, so I wasn't pushing for a lynch on Yellow. It just so happened that, of the two people I thought in this game were town (Sqrt and Bunny), Sqrt was bwed as a lynch. I know, from an outside perspective, it must have made a lot of sense for people to suspect that Sqrt and I were scum, defending each other and clearing each other as town. They lynched Sqrt for information. If he flipped scum, I know I'd have been next without ANY chance. From my perspective though, I know I'm town. I have no reason to think Sqrt was scum, just he was agreeing with various points I was bringing up. People wanted to lynch Sqrt. And people think Sqrt and I were scum-buddies. Anything I could have said would have been dismissed. I didn't want Sqrt to get lynched, but arguing for him would have been a futile effort and only made me look worse if he turned out to be scum. I've tried playing an active role as town from the beginning of the game. I haven't made the best reads, I'll admit, but my reads come all from what I see through people's filters and what-not. I try to use logic and reasoning in coming up with my reads, something which I believe Sqrt also saw, which is why he cleared me as town. | ||
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On May 05 2014 09:14 Eden1892 wrote: Weak. TAMBO: Who are you shooting tonight? We're down to 10, so if we're at 4 then a wrong shot would lose the game. I know you wanted to keep your cards close to the chest last night, but we really need to sort this out as a group here. My thought is that if you're going to hit town then they'll let it go through but if you're going to hit mafia they'll roleblock you. A lot's riding on your shot but if we're still around to discuss it tomorrow we'll have a damn good idea about where to go. I'm all for you shooting tonight, even with the risks, provided we can get a good bead on a mafia to shoot. So who do you want to shoot tonight? Why are you asking Tamburini who he's going to shoot, and then saying "My thought is that if you're going to hit town then they'll let it go through but if you're going to hit mafia they'll roleblock you." If Tamburini answers that, and he was in-fact going to target a town, then Mafia would know not to roleblock him just so they could get another Town dead. If not, then Mafia would know to roleblock him. What good does it do you to know who Tamburini's going to shoot? | ||
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Epishade
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Ok guys, I've been cautious about Eden for most of the game, but I think I finally have to settle on him being scum. Reasons for my scumread on Eden: 1.) This post during the nightphase: On May 05 2014 09:14 Eden1892 wrote: Weak. TAMBO: Who are you shooting tonight? We're down to 10, so if we're at 4 then a wrong shot would lose the game. I know you wanted to keep your cards close to the chest last night, but we really need to sort this out as a group here. My thought is that if you're going to hit town then they'll let it go through but if you're going to hit mafia they'll roleblock you. A lot's riding on your shot but if we're still around to discuss it tomorrow we'll have a damn good idea about where to go. I'm all for you shooting tonight, even with the risks, provided we can get a good bead on a mafia to shoot. So who do you want to shoot tonight? Put yourself in town's shoes (if you're not already...), what POSSIBLE GOOD could come from knowing who Tamburini was going to shoot as town? Say he shoots a mafia, what then? What if he shoots a townie? How does knowing who Tamburini was going to shoot ANY benefit to town? I can't understand Eden's reasoning for asking this. I call him out on it and he follows up with this post: On May 05 2014 10:04 Eden1892 wrote: The thought here is that he gets roleblocked no matter what if the mafia don't know who he's shooting, but you're right, I didn't think that through. I'm worried because he's got the power to decide the game right here, potentially, and he's openly talking about how "paranoid" he is and talking about shooting bunnies (which is a terrible mistake). I don't want to lose off of a stupid shot from him. You're right, though, discussing it doesn't advantage us, we just give the mafia a road map on how to play the night. Don't answer that, tambo. Just don't let your paranoia guide your shot. I don't buy that he didn't think that through though. This is information that could only benefit mafia to have. There's no reason for Eden, as a townie to ask that. I think Eden slipped up here. If nobody had called him out on it, and Tamburini had answered, it'd be a perfect opportunity for mafia to roleblock or not, depending on Tamburini's answer. He did get called out on it, and retracted his statement. Obviously though, he wouldn't be able to push for Tamburini actually answering, as that does town no good. He cut his losses and admitted his "mistake". It's not something I'm willing to accept so easily though. 2.) Eden contradicts himself with the lynch on Sqrt. On May 04 2014 15:28 Eden1892 wrote: Lol dammit, you're right ritoky I meant #4 not #2 As for why not Yell0w, because we're blatantly being set up to lynch him today. If there are 4 mafia (which isn't unreasonable with 13 people) then one more mislynch puts us at LYLO. I'm not wasting our possible only mislynch on information. We need to get scum. He says that we need to get scum, but yet the other day, he was making a huge case on calling Tamburini serial killer and voting for him, instead of voting on the other possible scumread, Sweetfrost. We already had it pretty clear that Tamburini wasn't mafia, yet he still was pushing to lynch a possible Vigi to kill a possible serial killer. Then, later on during Sqrt's lynch, he calls us out on not wasting our lynches to get information, "we need to get scum." 3.) Eden clears Yellow as town and suspects Ahswtini as town because of interactions between ONLY Sqrt and I involving the two of them. This is more about Sqrt's reactions with Ahswtini. On May 04 2014 15:18 Eden1892 wrote: Unfortunately I seem to be the only one who wanted tambo out early :^) So I guess that's out. The other thought is that sqrt's and Epishade's partner(s) is/are lying low in a relatively inactive town and not really pushing on anyone. That's going to be people who aren't really putting out any visible effort to figure out the game state much. Here I'm looking at: - dravernor - ahswtini - mysterymeat1 - dfs - Yell0w Yell0w can be written off immediately given the push Epishade made to deflect from sqrt (see previous post about why Yell0w is town). ahswtini is also unlikely because I don't really think sqrt would bother pushing his teammate ahswtini. I could definitely see dravernor since Epishade went to so much trouble to point out his good and bad stuff and then settled on a lazy "null" read, looks to me like he's just trying to make sure he has ostensibly-meaningful interaction with his partner. dfs is kinda in the background some and mysterymeat made a point of telling us he'd post a lot more, then hasn't. Right now I'd say scumteam is sqrt, Epishade, dravernor. Eden doesn't take into consideration the possibility that Sqrt and I were both town, yet he's willing to accept those two as town without a second thought. I can understand his attitude toward Yellow. He pushed on Yellow in the beginning of the game, and then decided a while later on that Yellow was probably town, based on all the interactions with Yellow at the center of them. What I don't like though, is his read on Ahswtini. In the post above, he doesn't bother to take into account the fact that Sqrt may be town. Ahswtini was suspected by quite a few people at this point in the game, and might have been a lynch target that day if things had gone down differently. Eden reinforces Ahswtini's townieness because of Sqrt's reaction of pushing on him, and since some people wanted to lynch Ahswtini still, it was a perfect thing for him to say to convince them to lynch Sqrt instead for that night. I suspect Ahswtini is mafia as well for a couple of reasons. I might make a post later tonight why I think so if I have the time. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 06 2014 09:44 Eden1892 wrote: Finals a bitch Brief response to Epishade: 1) nothing to say, I fucked up in asking the question, you rightfully called me on it and I acknowledged my mistake and retracted the question. this should be a null point because both town and scum optimal play is to retract. I don't get why you're reading it scum 2) this isn't a contradiction at all. we need to get rid of anti-town and our lynches should be using that as our guiding goal, not lynching for information like tambo wanted to do with Yell0w. if as I did on D1 I believe there's an sk and I have a good read on him, my optimal play is to kill him because it cuts the anti-town kp in half. aside from that, kill scum. by D2 I was convinced that tambo was the real vig so I dropped the sk line of argument and moved on to scum reads 3) of course I'm not going to assume sqrt is town if I'm developing a theory about who sqrt's teammate is. why would I do that? assuming he's town defeats the point of the entire exercise because he doesn't have a partner I'm still sorting out what I think about Epishade, his arguments here are pretty bad and I'm not sure if it's deliberate or not. I think I wouldn't want to lynch him by default because he's trying to figure out the game state whereas other players (ahswtini, dfs, mysterymeat1, dravernor) aren't. @MysteryMeat1: ritoky was strongly townreading me, where are you getting the idea that he wasn't === Power roles should claim now with any data they have imo. I don't know if we're at LYLO or LYLO-1 but I'm assuming the worst-case scenario (LYLO) until given reason to think otherwise. We should hopefully be able to POE from here. 1). I suppose the point I was trying to make in my first point wasn't as clear as I wanted it to be. Why did you ask that question in the first place? What made you think that the answer would be relevant to you at all, unless you were scum? 2). I still disagree with you here. By attempting to lynch Tamburini, which was a probable 50/50 chance of being vig or serial killer at the time, you were wasting our lynch. Tamburini made the bad move of roleclaiming vig. Chances that he wouldn't be roleblocked by mafia from then on were slim-to-none. Even if he were serial killer, he wouldn't be able to kill anyone because he'd be roleblocked by mafia still. It was a waste to organize a lynch against him, knowing that he was not mafia. 3). I guess that was a dumb point. It sounded good in my head when I wrote it down, but I'll concede point 3 after rereading it. Hell, I withdrew my scumread on Ritoky when Tamburini claimed vig and Sweetfrost flipped town, as I made Ritoky's scumread based on his interactions between the two. So then do you have a read on Ashwitini then? You thought he was town because Sqrt pushed him, but that's probably changed since Sqrt flipped town. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 06 2014 08:57 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Guys its blowing my mind right now that ritoky is dead. Like it doesn't make any sense. If i was mafia, i would either kill bunny or mtamburini, The reason is that they are both pretty town and mtam at this point is pretty much guarenteed vigi. As a mafi I would like to get rid of a guarenteed town to put the remaining town into more confusion. At this point we have 9 people left and 3-4 mafias. I'm vanilla town which leads me with almost a 50-50 chance of lynching a mafia. I think its interesting that ritoky died he didn't like eden or epishade, i think this is probably a big indicator of why he was killed during the night. Thinking about it any other way doesnt make much sense to me. Also i would like to say that i dont' have a role but got a pm saying that i was roleblocked. in his posts ritoky is also suspicious of ahswtini, so i would like to lynch one of these 3 today. Town circle -Me -bunnies -tam -dfs fenced -dravernor scum -epishade -ahs -eden -yellow I don't think many people here suspected Ritoky as being scum. (I may be wrong, I'm going off memory here and don't want to look through the whole thread to see people's thoughts on Ritoky) So it's not entirely unlikely for mafia to kill Ritoky as he was town-viewed by many people and probably wouldn't have ever been a lynch candidate. However, I think it's interesting to note that you think Ritoky was killed because he viewed me as scum, instead of the above, that he was town-viewed by majority. What about a scenario like this: Ritoky thinks I'm scum. Mafia kills Ritoky. Someone (mafia) steps up and says that Ritoky must have been on the right path to have been killed. Person that steps up thinks it's suspicious of me since Ritoky died and he suspected me most. I think it's a little suspicious on yourself to point that out and state that that was probably a big indicator of why he was killed, when I think the bigger indicator was how people viewed his alignment. Also, just as an aside, I think it's funny that you place yourself in the town circle, as if that wasn't implied already lol, despite the fact nobody sees you as town right now. I know it wouldn't make any sense to place yourself in scum or fenced pile but I laughed at you doing that. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Eden I think I want to hold off on for later. I'm still a bit undecided as to whether or not he's town and he's just made a lot of moves that I disagree with, or he's scum actively moving town in the wrong direction. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
1.) His claiming to be roleblocked. Hell, it might be true or not, idk. But I can't see a reason why mafia would choose to roleblock Meat. I think it's a good likelihood that mafia forgoed roleblocking so Meat could claim and seem townie, as some of you guys said. 2.) His reasoning for Ritoky's lynch was that Ritoky didn't like me - so that's why he's dead now. That sounds exactly like the thing mafia would say. I was already suspicious for a lot of people, and I think Meat wanted to lynch me as an easy lynch by using this justification. The problem is that Ritoky was seen as town by most people, and that's why he was killed most likely. Mafia probably thought Bunnies would be protected, so they chose the next best target, Ritoky. Eden had some suspicion on him, so he wasn't a likely target either. The justification that Meat gave for Ritoky's lynch either wasn't very thought out, or was mafia play. 3.) Meat voted for me without even rebutting or defending ANYTHING I said about Ritoky's situation in the previous post. If he doesn't care to defend himself or just even share his thought process, I can't be convinced he's not mafia trying really hard to lynch me as his target and ignoring everything I say. ##VOTE: MysteryMeat1 | ||
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Epishade
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On May 08 2014 02:03 MysteryMeat1 wrote: @epishade, your obviously scum http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=956&topic_id=447955 1.) If you think Eden is scum, why are you voting for the person that eden votes for in MYLO, if eden is scum then he isn't going to vote for another scum... But since your scum your reasoning will be to clear me as town or something. 2.) You also say that you might give your reads on ahs if you had time, only to post an hour later with nothing about him. 3.) I would also say my reasoning for ritoky's death was thought out, and that it seems really scummy that you would sweep it under the rug like that. 4.) I also don't get your reasoning on eden, You told everyone he was scum, he made even more moves you disagree with such as asking for tam's shot during the night, and then suddenly you say that you are going to hold off on eden and that you will decide later whether he is town or not?!?!? Your whole entire town play this game has just been a series of fake pressures and being incredibly inconsistent with your claims on whose town and whose mafia. In fact you only call out people who are town to place them under suspicion. I appluad your efforts, but when it comes to people who i know are mafia like ahs, you say you will post your thoughts and then never talk about them again. I'm soo coninced epi is mafia, I switched my vote from epi to dfs, but im just going to switch it back to epi. Alright, I finished my final early so I can actually do something now. 1.) I thought Eden was scum at first, but his answers have been satisfactory enough for me right now. He responded to my points I made, and I made that dumb observation of my point#3. This lowered him to "probably not scum" for me. Then he voted for you, and then I voted for you. Your observation is false here. I didn't think Eden was scum, and then vote for the person scum votes for. What sense would that make? 2.) I looked through Ashwtini's filter and nothing stood out to me more than anybody else. He bandwagon voted for Tamburini when I made a case against him before Tamburini claimed, but then he backed off after the claim and voted for you when nobody else had voted for you. I think that was a bit scummy to me, voting for his potential teammate when nobody else did as a way to make it look like they were town. However, in the past day, Ashwtini has voted for you again with only Eden to vote for you to begin with. It could be that you're the next bandwagon and that Ashwtini thinks to get rid of you because you're town, and I don't think he's bussing you here. But you're throwing off more scummyness than he is for me through his votes here. 3.) I think it's still scummy that you're pushing this and that you can't see the faulty logic behind lynching the person who the dead guy thought was scum. It's an obvious ploy for mafia to support to lynch someone by shooting the guy who's most vocal about someone being scum. 4.) This is the only thing I can fault myself with. I've been very flipfloppy this game in my reads. I don't generally like to stick on them if somebody says something that I hadn't thought of before that I was missing. Like I've said before about Eden, he's making a lot of moves that I don't necessarily agree with. However, he contributes a lot, and seems to be wanting to push the game along and figure things out. I decided that he's not lynchworthy right now, and there are better targets in this game. I'm not going to vote for Eden when he responds to my questions with answers that, though I may not agree with, I can see his thought process about why he did those actions. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote: 1) thats what i called you out on, in your posts when you mentioned eden the last three things you said where -Eden is scum -i don't agree with Eden's reads -I'm undecided on Eden then you vote for me... 2.You looked through ahs filter and nothing stood out? the post that was supposed to come never came. And now your saying that nothing stood out. Once again, you htink ahs is scummy. 3) You think its an obvious ploy then why is mtam, and bunnies supporting it? The two people who are clearly town? Its obvious then that your bw and in the million to one chance your being used as a bw. 1) ok...? 2) I think you're scummy. I had a gut feeling that Ahswtini was scummy when I made that post, mainly in that he bwed on Squirt's lynch, and bwed on Tamburini's lynch until he claimed vigi. The latter part could be either townie or scummy, as he may have wanted to look town by unvoting, or he actually believed Tamburini was vigi so he unvoted, so I don't really have much to add. He wasn't particularly active in the beginning of the game, so I just gutread him as scummy. You're in the same boat, but I believe more in your scummyness than his. Also, I might have phrased it better in my second point if I'd known it'd be a bit confusing. I think either Ahswtini or you is scum, but not both. You're more scumchance than he is for me, so you're getting the vote. 3) They aren't supporting it. Unless I missed something, and I don't think I have, you're the only one supporting the idea that Ritoky was killed because he thought I was scum, instead of that he was killed because he was viewed as town. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:42 MysteryMeat1 wrote: who are your scum reads? You, dfs, Ahs, and possibly drav. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 08 2014 05:52 MysteryMeat1 wrote: @epishade, since you, ahs, and I all think dfs is mafia, we can lynch him Would that look bad if I agreed to it? dfs hasn't done anything that I can remember this game, so I personally wouldn't care if he were lynched. I just took a quick look through his filter and all he's really been doing was giving reads on people and staying back. It doesn't look like you're going to get lynched today anyways now. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
##Unvote ##Vote: dfs | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
@Meat If you are so positive I'm scum, why would you offer me to change my vote to someone else that you think is scum? If I agree, doesn't that make the person I'm voting for not scum, since you'd think that I see him as town? | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 08 2014 06:11 Epishade wrote: Though, I got a question then that I just thought about after making that vote: @Meat If you are so positive I'm scum, why would you offer me to change my vote to someone else that you think is scum? If I agree, doesn't that make the person I'm voting for not scum, since you'd think that I see him as town? Actually, I wouldn't even know how to answer this question. I guess it's a moot point anyway since it's between dfs and Drav now. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
So Meat wasn't going to get lynched today. It's between Drav and dfs, either of which I have no problems lynching. But I do think that Yellow's suspicion of Eden is the only reason that he doesn't want to vote drav, because he thinks Eden is scum pushing town in wrong direction. I've been hesitant about Eden all game, but I don't think there's enough to prove he's scum. Yellow seems fixated for sure that Eden's scum, just as Meat sees me as scum. It doesn't seem like a good enough reason for me not to vote drav, and I think Yellow is probably deflecting, especially when drav hadn't done anything this game to stand out. I was hesitant about voting dfs anyways mainly because Meat suggested it, but they both seemed like scum to me anyways. I'm gonna side with Eden here and vote drav instead. I think he makes a stronger case, and I don't think Yellow makes a good enough case against Eden to make it seem like Eden's pushing the wrong person. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE dravernor | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
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Epishade
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On May 08 2014 10:32 mtamburini wrote: Can i just shoot you for telling me what to do I would not suggest doing that. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote: I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot. You're giving us HOMEWORK!?! I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me. Here are my thoughts on the current situation though. Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden. I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum. I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it. Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target. I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts. Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this: On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote: Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online... This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like. Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk. It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order): + Show Spoiler + What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? -------------- I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. -------------- Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini -------------- I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. -------------- ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50. -------------- Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness. I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow. Then, idk Meat I guess? Try not to shoot Eden though. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 09 2014 04:30 MysteryMeat1 wrote: You also havent been very active and i think my reads are much stronger than yours Your reads all revolve around me being scum. They're not good because I'm not scum. Take a look through drav's filter and see if I look like a viable mafia teammate. She scumreads me the whole game. Eden too. In fact, she townreads you the whole game, even slightly pushing ahs when he casts suspicion on you. I'm starting to wonder if I made the right decision pushing ahs over you. | ||
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Epishade
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Epishade
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Amiko was shot dead on night one at May 02, 22:04 (Night 1) Tamburini claims being roleblocked at May 02, 22:22 (Day 2) - Probably true Bunny claims being roleblocked at May 04, 05:09 (Day 2) - Most likely true from Ritoky Ritoky was shot dead on night two at May 05, 22:11 (Night 2) - we lose a town roleblocker Meat claims being roleblocked at May 05, 23:35 (Day 3) - nobody else claims to be roleblocked. Bunny claims being roleblocked once again at May 06, 01:06 (Day 3) Tamburini says he didn't shoot voluntarily, likely as a way to not get Meat instalynched because he sees Meat as town. If Tamburini had claimed roleblock as vigi, Meat would have gotten lynched and then Tamburini next if Meat flipped town, losing us the game - May 06, 02:42 (Day 3) Tamburini was shot dead on night three at May 08, 22:00 (Night 3) Meat claims being roleblocked once again at May 09, 01:52 (Day 4) So to sum up: Day 2, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Tamburini. Night 2, Ritoky dies and we lose a roleblocker. Day 3, we get 2 roleblock claims from Bunny and Meat. Tamburini admits he wasn't roleblocked, and just chose not to shoot. Day 4, we get another roleblock claim from Meat. Am I doing something wrong here, or are we not supposed to have 2 roleblock claims on Day 3? Someone double check me here in case I got my times mixed up or something. If not, and I'm correct, then one of Meat or Bunny is scum I think. | ||
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Epishade
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I guess you guys can scratch all that out. I can't deduce anything from the role block claims over the past few days. | ||
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Epishade
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On May 10 2014 04:15 MysteryMeat1 wrote: even though ritoky was killed his action still goes through. I was blocked by mafia, and bunnies was jailed by town. Yea that's where I messed up. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 10 2014 04:29 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me only one of us is mafia. dfs is guarenteed ahs is pretty confirmed mafia my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn I'm pretty sure Eden isn't mafia. Look through Drav's filter again and see if they look like scumbuddies. I've looked through a bunch when I posted about Ahs, and, though I wasn't looking particularly hard for eden, I believe she scum read him the whole game along with me. I'll take another look though but I'm pretty sure we're both town. I'll also take another look at interactions between Drav and Yellow. I believe Yellow is probable town as well because Drav also scumreads Yellow from what I remember. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Not only is she townreading Meat the whole game, but also Dfs, despite both of them not really proving themselves as town. She defends Meat a little from Ahswtini's small push. I looked through Dfs' filter and he has pretty much nothing to say about Drav. He mentions her a total of three times, and all times gives a pretty much null read. At this point, I think Eden is town and Meat is possible town as well. I also believe Yellow could be town, but that's more of a gut feeling than anything. Yellow could still be scum, and Eden could be correct on him, but I'm not ready to vote Yellow now either. Ahs I'm not entirely sure about now. I thought he was scum to begin with, mainly because of his lack of posting early game. He thinks Dfs and Meat are scum, but particularly Dfs. I think Dfs is the best lynch at this point. I don't think Meat was attempting to bus him, either. If you look through Dfs' filter and ctrl+f for Meat, Yell0w, and Ahs, you can see he's been scumreading them all game. His conflicting interactions with Yellow make me think they can't be scumpartners. He doesn't say much about Ahs, but still scumreads him on the basis that he hasn't been talking much. And same feelings towards Meat. Nobody else do I really consider to be mafia right now other than him. I think Dfs is mafia at this point. Then, if Dfs flips scum, that clears Ahs for me, as well as Yellow and probably Meat too, as those guys have been his biggest scumreads all game so far. He's been in my potential mafia list the whole game too, and nothing has convinced me he's not so far. ##Vote: dfs | ||
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Epishade
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
If you fake claimed being roleblocked on day 4, why were there no other claims on people being roleblocked? I can't see any incentive for dfs not to roleblock someone, even anybody at random. Had he done so, you wouldn't have been able to claim being roleblocked. What incentive would dfs have had not to roleblock someone, unless he were holding it back so you could claim being roleblocked, which I don't understand why he would do that unless you two were partners and this was a serious bussing attempt through you using your "analytical skills" to lynch dfs as a confirmed roleblocker when, in actuality, you knew he was roleblocker all along. But then now you claim that you weren't actually being roleblocked and that you made the claim up, which means we're still missing a roleblock then from dfs. I have a hard time thinking you slipped as mafia when posting this fake roleblock claim as a way to figure out dfs was mafia, and forgot to take into account the missing roleblock. Wtf. | ||
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Epishade
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Ok I get it now. Forget my above post. | ||
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On May 11 2014 14:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote: Epishade im soooo vanilla town it hurts Same here, but you don't have to tell me. Ok, so I'm going through Tamburini's filter quickly and figuring this out then. Night 1, he said he was going to shoot Yellow. He was likely roleblocked here so that town would organize a mislynch against Yellow. Night 2, he implies that he'll shoot Yellow. Meat and Bunny get roleblocked, but Tamburini doesn't. Night 3, Tamburini asks who he should shoot. I say we should shoot Ahs as the best shot. Then meat after that probably. Eden says to shoot Yellow, but Ahs is also a reasonable shot. Bunny suggests between Ahs, dfs, and Eden. Ahs says to shoot dfs. Yellow suggests Ahs and dfs. Every single person had mentioned Ahs (except for himself obviously). dfs comes second, but Ahs has more against him than dfs at that point. I made a big case against him and Yellow made a smaller case against dfs, but I think Ahs was more likely than anyone to possibly get shot by Tamburini. Tamburini gets roleblocked, and I don't see why they would do that unless it were to protect Ahs. I know I thought I had cleared Ahs before when we lynched dfs, but I think I gotta take that back. I'm thinking Ahs is the next lynch for us. | ||
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Epishade
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"Night 3, Tamburini asks who he should shoot. I say we should shoot Ahs as the best shot. Then meat after that probably." - That's just me giving a breakdown of what I said about who Tamburini should shoot. Then I listed other people's thoughts on who to shoot after that. I'm not advocating you anymore though. | ||
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Epishade
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Sorry if you're town Ahs. It's hard to pick any of the others at this point, they just feel more townie to me than you do. | ||
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Epishade
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I've made a case on Ahs a couple pages back that I'll repost. Basically Drav townreads him for most of the game, with one post that for some reason she places him in his scumpile (maybe she realizes that she's been townreading him all game long and that might look bad for him if she were to get lynched, idk?) I've since looked through dfs' filter since he got lynched. He doesn't say all that much about Ahs, but he kind of has the same writing stance that he takes with Ahs that he does with Drav - not much to say. Here are all the times that dfs mentions Drav. + Show Spoiler + ritoky, dravernor, ashwtini - can't say anything still. Too much other stuff to follow and they didn't really cought my attention yet. ---------------------------------------- dravernor - finally explained his thoughs. Some stuff of what he says makes sense to me, but some stuff look weird. The fact that there is not my of anything else from him to look into doesn't help. Again, there are better targets right now. ---------------------------------------- Yellow doesn't want to "waste" his vote on Eden (and the only suspicion he has on him is his "gut feeling") so he votes a dravernor who has the least interaction to anyone throughout the whole game, which makes him the easiest bw target right now (which is exactly what is happening as i see it). Then after Eden's post he immediately switches his vote back to Eden, because he calls you suspicios again. Suddenly not a waste of a vote anymore. Still, the mafia who's hiding in plain sight is more dangerous, so: ##Vote: MysteryMeat1 Here are all the times that dfs mentions Ahs. + Show Spoiler + I want to look at Epishade and ashwtini, but for now highest on my list are: Yell0w, sqrt and Meat (mafia or sk) in no particular order. I'll explain my thoughts on sqrt, Epishade and ashwtini later. ---------------------------------------- ahswtini - not much to look at with his posts. The only people he talked about were Yell0w ("on the fence", he said he didn't like him being not serious and that's all he said), mtamburini (agreed with Epishade on his 3 mafia theory and pointed mtamburini specificly, but, like most people, changed the read to town after the vigi claim) and Meat (i shared the same concerns with ahswtini here). That's it. Almost nothing. Although his suspicious for Meat D1 i understand, but he voted even though Meat was banned and there were other, better suspects, in my opinion. The lack of reads on anyone else and an "outer" vote looks really bad for him. ---------------------------------------- So, based on that, my list of highest suspects in descending order is: Yell0w, sqrt, ahswtini, Meat and Epishade. Here's my case on Ahs from before when Tamburini asked us who to shoot, after Drav had been lynched. + Show Spoiler + On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote: I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot. You're giving us HOMEWORK!?! I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me. Here are my thoughts on the current situation though. Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden. I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum. I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it. Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target. I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts. Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this: On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote: Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online... This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like. Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk. It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order): + Show Spoiler + What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right? -------------- I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. -------------- Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini -------------- I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. -------------- ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50. -------------- Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness. I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow. Then, idk Meat I guess? Try not to shoot Eden though. Many of the lists that dfs and Drav place Ahs in are the same lists that they place each other in. And, honestly, any one of you guys could be town to me. I feel that I'm making the best guess I can at this point. Out of anybody in here though, really. It was either Ahs, or you Bunny, as you've been consistently townread the entire game and are still alive, and that raises some concerns for me. You have your paranoias about me and Eden, I have mine about you. But I still think Ahs is a better pick over you right now, so he's getting my vote then. | ||
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Epishade
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Sigh. Why couldn't I get shot instead! It takes forever for me to read through filters and come out with reads. Very well though. | ||
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Epishade
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One of the things that I wanted to look at is Yellow getting shot. Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler + Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me. 1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too. 2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote. OR 3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it. I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely. You know what, I had a TON of stuff written down that Drav and dfs had on Bunny and Eden, but nothing about their interactions with Eden jumped out at me. The biggest thing that I could find was that Bunny was cleared under some questionable circumstances by dfs and Drav. + Show Spoiler + On May 05 2014 03:23 dravernor wrote: I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me. My 'most likely' scum list right now, as I said above : Epishade and/or sqrt. On the fence : bunnies, tamb, Yell0w, maaaaybe Eden Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini Drav might just not really know what the different roles in this game actually do, but her inexperience in this game shows by clearing Bunny as town based on faulty understanding of the game. I find it a little suspicious for Drav to clear Bunny for a reason that she doesn't fully understand herself (town jailkeeper roleblocking Bunny to keep her safe that is). In the same post, though, she places Bunny as fence. Yet, in her next post about Bunny, she posts with Bunny in her town list, with no explanation of the move. Maybe she didn't feel it needed an explanation as everyone was just reading Bunny as town so it felt alright to place her in the town list? Idk, but she says this after she posts her list: On May 07 2014 02:42 dravernor wrote: I actually agree. I think Meat is town. I think dfs is town. I think bunnies might be town. I think tamb is town. I think Epishade is scum. I think Eden might be scum. I think ahs might be scum. I think Yell0w might be scum. If there are 4 mafia and 9 of us, then one more mislynch means GG? I'm going to have to post my expansion on these points after dinner (family birthday so helping cook etc), and had a super long day. I'm scared of losing bunnies because she has shown she can be useful. Same with Eden, but I am hesitant of him because I also think he might be dangerous. Eh. Be back just now. Sounds a little off to me to be afraid of losing Bunny and Eden, but then placing more emphasis on losing Bunny over Eden being worse. I wouldn't have paid it any attention if it weren't down to us three now, but every detail matters now. dfs' posts are a lot more sparse and difficult to get information from. There's not much to say about most of what he says, but I did find one thing that stood out to me. On May 07 2014 02:21 dfs wrote: mtamburini - wasn't roleblocked, which is interesting, because when it was clear that he's going to shoot Yell0w he was blocked, but when he expressed his thoughts on being paranoic and wanting to shoot Bunny he wasn't blocked (instead it looks like the block was used blindly in the hopes to hit another power role, because no one else called their roles). Simple conclusion from that alone: Yell0w - mafia. Bunny - town. Meat - can be either. Tamburini wasn't actually seriously considering shooting Bunny during the night. He made a single post expressing suspicion about Bunny, and dfs wants to clear Bunny from this Tamburini not getting blocked. They also share a scumread on Yellow for much of the game, which is about the only thing I can find that links them to Eden. Really, I have a few things I can say about Bunny that make her a bigger scumread than Eden for me. Bunny has miraculously avoided getting shot at every single night. I don't know why, either, as she's been coasting as a town player the whole game since the beginning. This is one of the most suspicious things I can find about her. Her tracks are fairly covered, as she initiates conversations with Drav and dfs to find their reads and also places both of them in her scumlist at various times throughout the game, which Eden also happens to do. I misread Ahs, with one of the reasons being a lack of conversation between him and Drav/dfs. I know I didn't really attempt any communications either with Drav/dfs (actually I think Drav in the beginning a bit), but other than that, not much. Eden has had no direct conversation at all between dfs/Drav (unless I missed something), but my misread on Ahs makes me reluctant to use this information against Eden. If it weren't for random chance that Drav decided to talk to me in the early game too, I wouldn't have had any conversation with them either. Bunny was quite active at the beginning of the game and then started posting less and less. She was established as town at the beginning of the game and, I guess after being town-read by everyone, felt the need to stop contributing as much. Her contributive posts don't match up to the amount of effort and digging that Eden's and mine does. I feel that Eden could have just as easily hung back and still lynched another townie, but he went through a TON of effort in coming up with several of his posts trying to figure out the game, like these: + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2014 05:23 Eden1892 wrote: ##UNVOTE ##VOTE Yell0w I reread his filter and I don't like it at all. I put my vote down while I was writing this. Here's what I've got. N.B.: I've only thoroughly read his filter so far, haven't fully caught up in the thread proper. I've read a few things here and there to get context on his posts, but that's about it. - Initial interactions with bunnies: Upon rereading his filter, I don't like the tone of this post: bunnies certainly didn't seem to think the issue was resolved, for one. Seems like he's a little eager to sweep aside bunnies's initial prodding. His reaction also doesn't line up with his words before. He called bunnies "insane" for her line of questioning, then is immediately okay with her 20 minutes later. There's some other stuff that's wrong too, namely... Please. "I think X is more likely than Y, X clears me, therefore I'm statistically innocent" is a self-evidently terrible argument. This an agonizing 30 minutes before townclearing her, and 10 minutes before telling Amiko that he thinks she's town. This guy is way too defensive in the face of a bad initial argument from bunnies. - Worrying Way Too Much About Being Suspicious: I'm of course referring to this post. Who cares? What good does it do to know what rikory wanted to hear? If you're town you shouldn't care. It gets worse in his next post: So for one, straw men like "didn't know asking questions was frowned upon" raise my red flags immediately. This isn't a genuine question or remark at all. Secondly, again, why is he so worried about what ritoky thinks? This is silly if he's town (as it's distracting from scumhunting with useless conversation) and sensible if he's scum (as it's attempting to gauge why ritoky finds it suspicious in order to change behavior and become less suspicious). It gets better, believe it or not... Now he's whining about how bunnies isn't getting asked about the same thing, as though (a) both questions are the same in the first place and (b) in all other respects their play has been identical. I think the questions are similar but coming from different places -- bunnies is wanting to know why I'm not getting negative attention for my votes when people are calling pressure voting suspicious (town-motivated), Yell0w is just whining about how people are paying attention to him (scum-motivated or at best not-pro-town). bunnies has also separately been very proactive, Yell0w isn't (see next point). - Reactive Behavior: Yell0w hasn't done anything to be proactive this game. Part of it is being on the defensive early, but he's had plenty of time since then to build his own cases or even question people without being questioned first. This hasn't happened as an overall trend. He's hopped on the "Eden is weird" bandwagon, conveniently mentioning that he thought me "most suspicious" last night without doing any questioning either to develop his suspicions into a coherent case or to dispel them. Just like his "suspicion" of bunnies which was dropped in about a half hour (see above), he goes from "Eden was my top suspect last night" to "His behavior was really... weird [...] but it doesn't necessarily strike me as being mafia plays, so I don't know" in about an hour. Then immediately afterwards he jumps on "Sweetfrost is weird" when Epishade said it. This post is terrible: He "wanted to add" this factoid about Sweetfrost not reading the thread, but at the same time he doesn't actually do it until someone else expresses suspicion of Sweetfrost. OK. And then this passage at the end is just full of applause lights. tl;dr: - interaction with bunnies isn't good at all - way too defensive - not proactive or scumhunting at all Vote Yell0w. On May 01 2014 09:16 Eden1892 wrote: Why mtamburini Is Serial Killer Serial Killer vs Mafia Specifically reading someone as a serial killer as opposed to mafia on the first day is typically pretty difficult. The main long-run pattern that distinguishes the serial killer from a mafioso is that the serial killer doesn't coordinate with a team; you're only going to catch them purely by scumhunting in their actions specifically, as opposed to teasing them out as hypothetical teammates. On the first day, however, you can't really tease out mafia teammates definitively because you don't have any flips yet. All this to say that on the first day, behavioral analysis can tell us if someone is not town, but not if they are mafia or serial killer, because on the first day their behavioral incentives are largely the same. Usually, on the first day, that's enough of an obstacle to prevent being able to zero in on the serial killer. However, if the person in question talks enough about mechanical factors -- like roles -- as opposed to behavioral reads, certain divergent incentives can be parsed out which allow us to make the distinction between serial killer and mafia successfully. I intend first to prove that mtamburini's behavior is misaligned with town incentives and aligned with scum incentives (whether mafia or serial killer) and second to prove that mtamburini's role discussion doesn't align with mafia incentives but with serial killer incentives. This in turn will demonstrate that mtamburini is the serial killer. Why mtamburini Isn't Town Buddying mtamburini has been buddying 27ninjabunnies a lot throughout the game. It started during the joke phase, which is fine enough, but it continued on after bunnies started serious talk in this post -- directed, no less, at him. She calls him scum for trying to establish himself as town leader, which to me indicates drawing a clear line in the dirt saying "the game starts now." Here's a list of his posts buddying bunnies: - Here he says he REALLY hopes they're both town, invites her to rewatch an epicmafia game. The latter game is completely off-topic and we've moved on from the joke phase. The phrasing of that post is also bothering me. - Here is some completely useless filler cheerleading bunnies's pressure on Yell0w. Well, not totally useless. He's communicating to us that he saw this going down and didn't feel like commenting on it or developing it in any way. - Here, my god, what? His point on Yell0w is decent, but why the hell does he need bunnies to hold his hand while he votes for Yell0w? Is bunnies his seeing-eye dog, guiding him to the polling booth so that he can fulfill his civic duty to vote? - Here he takes up for bunnies in response to Yell0w's question. This isn't too bad and in isolation I wouldn't bother pointing it out. I made the same point. But in combination with these other examples it's clearly revealing a trend. - Free prize inside, he's buddying dfs here instead. Talking About Irrelevant Shit The title says it all, a good quarter of this guy's filter has nothing to do with the game. - No one cares about his past games. - No, really, no one gives a shit about his past games. - I can't tell what's worse, his ability to stay on-task or his music taste. - Is moose in this game? - Is moose a codename? Your favorite animal? What does this have to do with the game??? I was fair about this assessment and only took the posts from after the point I previously determined to be the beginning of "serious mode." You can see from the timestamps that this wasn't some isolated event, the guy went on like this for quite some time. Not Scumhunting This one might be a little bit of a surprise. He's pushing hard on Yell0w, right? So how can we write him up for scumhunting? Except that if we understand "scumhunting" to mean "an individual questioning or engaging suspects on a substantial level in order to develop his or her own case for killing a certain player," mtamburini hasn't really done anything like that. Let's look at his posts on Yell0w and see whether he qualifies or not... - Here he makes a good start, buddying of bunnies aside. Yell0w is indeed suspicious for worrying as much as he is about being townie. But he literally doesn't do anything to develop this point any further. Yell0w and I, for example, talked for a few posts back-and-forth about this point and what it means. mtamburini doesn't engage Yell0w on this at all: he never asks Yell0w why he was so worried about looking townie, nor does he respond to anything Yell0w said to me or to others about this same point when we did press Yell0w on it. - Here he adds "sarcasm" as a reason to lynch Yell0w. Not only is this point independently terrible, he does nothing to develop it further, and he commits the same behavior he says is indicative of scum, then when Yell0w calls him out on it, he doesn't even bother to handwave it, he just ignores Yell0w's point completely. - Here he says that Yell0w's defense has been "WIFOM" and not-game-related. Please. This coming from the king of off-topic nonsense. And simply handwaving everything someone says as "WIFOM" is utterly unconvincing. - Here in his role claim he says "I like tunneling its fun." At this point he's openly admitting that he's not trying to find mafia. Tunneling isn't trying to find mafia. mtamburini is scum because he's been buddying heavily, he's posted a lot of contentless trash and he's not actually scumhunting, just finding an excuse to park his vote on someone and ride out the phase. Why mtamburini Isn't Mafia mtamburini says that he claimed in order to dispel any confusion about there being multiple kills tonight, arguing that it's common practice in video mafia. For there to be any confusion about kills tonight, the number of kills in the night would have to subvert our expectations regarding the number of deaths. That means there would need to be more or fewer kills. mtamburini is telling us there will be more (he specifies two kills instead of one). If he were mafia, then he would have no way of assuring us that there's an extra kill, and he would have needlessly put himself in the line of fire on day two because he would have had to argue that the person he shot was separately shot by the mafia. This only works if he's the vigilante or the serial killer. The second thing pointing to him being the serial killer is his argument about the parity cop. He says that the parity cop should check him first then someone else n2, so that the parity can have perfect information about his scans. This would effectively turn the parity cop into a normal cop, which substantially increases the power of the cop. Doing this as mafia doesn't make sense; as soon as someone flips the wrong way, he's caught. This only works if he would actually scan as an innocent. He would scan as an innocent if he were the vigilante, the godfather, or the serial killer. Even if he's the godfather, though, this is a very bad strategy because the parity cop scanning the godfather as innocent still gives perfect information to the town; if the parity cop happened to scan his scumbuddy next, the scumbuddy would be lynched and flip guilty. This makes a lot of sense if he's a serial killer planning to take investigation immunity, however. In that case, anyone who scanned opposite to him would get lynched, which advances his agenda of killing off the mafia. Furthermore the mafia can't afford to nightkill him n1 because if he does take investigation immunity, he's effectively "upgraded" the parity cop to a normal cop. And if the mafia aren't going to nightkill him, and he's the serial killer, he doesn't have to worry about being nightkilled, so nightkill immunity isn't helpful anyway. He has no reason not to take investigation immunity here. mtamburini is the serial killer because his proposed strategy regarding his role and the parity cop doesn't make sense unless he's either the serial killer or the vigilante, and he's not town (see first half of case). mtamburini is the serial killer. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE mtamburini Though, again, I didn't agree with the vote, I feel that Eden felt he was advancing town in this scenario by getting rid of a potential extra kp in the night. Mafia wouldn't have an incentive to lynch a serial killer in most circumstances I think, right? So then it just depends on whether or not Eden actually believed Tamburini was serial killer, or if Eden was fooling us into believing he thought Tamburini was serial killer, when he actually believed the vigi claim. But still, that's a ton of effort that went into this post, linking everything Tamburini said in various places and what-not. For some reason, I feel that mafia wouldn't care to make as much effort as Town would to figure this out. Eden has also been on the case of people who have been outlier voting the whole game. On May 03 2014 06:51 Eden1892 wrote: Vote Count Sweetfrost (4): 27ninjabunnies, Epishade, Amiko, sqrtofneg1 mtamburini (3): MysteryMeat1, Eden1892, Yell0w Epishade (1): dravernor Yell0w (1): mtamburini sqrtofneg1 (2): Sweetfrost, dfs MysteryMeat1 (1): ahswtini ahswtini (1): ritoky Outliers from Group II: - dravernor - mtamburini - Sweetfrost - dfs - ahswtini - ritoky dravernor didn't do anything to try to get people to vote for Epishade, but I understand he's having internet access and time issues. He literally didn't post for 48 hours after he voted Epishade. I'm not taking him off the list of suspects here but it's too hard to tell right now whether or not he's mafia parking on an outlier or whether he's just being strangled by internet access problems. mtamburini, as I previously observed a full two days ago now, hasn't been scumhunting and didn't develop a real case against Yell0w. I could maybe find it in my heart to look at him less negatively if he had, after being called out for not scumhunting or making a case, cleaned up his act and worked harder on making his case. Reading through his filter since he acknowledged my post against him, he made exactly one reference to Yell0w since, and that was only to declare him as the target he would shoot tonight. I don't see him being town-motivated here; even if you want to shoot Yell0w tonight, why aren't you making your vote count, and why aren't you trying to find other scum? I think his focus is obvious, he's the serial killer and he's preoccupied with keeping his story straight instead of scumhunting. Sweetfrost flipped town. dfs doesn't post much at all, but his style is reminding me of RolandJarvis's from Newbie LIV. It's significantly less thorough, but it's also nothing that I find particularly suspicious right now. And to be fair, sqrt *might* have been a viable wagon if the votes were even a little different. But I don't really see where dfs did much at the end to create that wagon. (cf. me trying to recruit people to kill mtamburini) I need to see more from him because what he HAS said is fine, but he hasn't said enough and I don't feel he tried hard enough to get his preferred candidate lynched. ahswtini voted MysteryMeat1 because his posts didn't have a lot of content to them, which he felt was scummy. I kinda see the logic to it, but I'm a little confused why he said he "has no scumreads" literally the post before he declares Meat scummy. My main problem is that he says he "can see the case for Sweetfrost [...] and so [he doesn't] want to just jump onto that vote." He then says, next sentence, that the "votes ARE dangerously spread out." He says this while actively contributing to the spread. I'm sure someone's going to say that's too dummy to be scummy / mafia would never be this blatant / etc. but I'm going with the straightforward answer here, he's mafia. ritoky fits as a possible partner of ahswtini despite voting for him. Why? Because he didn't make any effort to get ahswtini lynched. But his other posts seem to be trying to figure things out, and don't seem to be especially scum-motivated. I'd like ritoky to explain why he didn't work very hard to get people to kill ahswtini if he thought ahswtini is scum, and we'll go from there. This action moves him back to null because while everything he posted before then sounds good, his actions wrt voting don't look good, and I think that in the end you're going to catch scum not by whether their words seem townie or scummy but rather by how well their actions line up with what they're saying. ritoky did argue against both lynches, but he didn't argue in favor of his. If he's mafia, then knowing neither lynch candidate is mafia, he looks good objecting to both while parking his vote on a suspicious teammate. === I'm running out of time with this post, but there's two suspects (ahswtini and ritoky) if I die tonight. Tomorrow I'll work on cutting into the people on the major wagons and teasing out more possible suspects and interactions. On May 13 2014 08:03 Eden1892 wrote: Some more thoughts: - I went back and looked at the dfs lynch. The only outlier at day's end aside from dfs himself was ahswtini voting for 27ninjabunnies. Check the votes today, and ahswtini, with a far better chance of getting bunnies lynched... is voting for me, and not commenting on bunnies at all. Please. - Aside from that, and assuming there is another mafia teammate out there, we know dfs's teammates bailed on him. Thus, what we should not be looking at is when people voted for dfs, but why. People who either built a decent case on dfs, or voted dfs after asking him some questions and trying to discern his alignment, or otherwise showed clear deliberation about the dfs lynch, are town. People who just parked a vote on dfs and peaced out are scum selling out their teammates. Here's a breakdown of everyone's thoughts on dfs last turn correlating to their vote: Yell0w: Parks vote on dfs, only posts one more time in the thread to whine at me for finding him suspicious. He claims to have "already made a case on dfs," but I can only find posts here and here that even approach the level of "making a case," and in neither instance do they satisfy my understanding of what a case should be. The first post is "well no one will go on my REAL scumread, and I really don't want to lynch dravernor [editor's note: who was scum], so I'll vote for dfs instead." That's not a case. The second post is a decent point about the shady interactions between dravernor and dfs, but not exactly what I'd call a "case." Recall that at the time we only knew dravernor was scum, and dravernor didn't have significant interactions with anyone. If I were in Yell0w's shoes looking at the same data, I would be asking more questions or at least listening to others' posts on the matter; hell, Yell0w himself is incriminated by the same logic, since dravernor didn't significantly interact with anybody and Yell0w didn't significantly interact with dravernor except to do anything in his power not to vote for dravernor the day she was lynched. There's a pretty good case for Yell0w busing dfs for credit here, because he made an appeal to a by-no-means conclusive case against dfs and bailed on the thread for the day after that. bunnies: More or less just followed Epishade's case onto dfs here. Also fits the bill for "busing teammate," though she stuck around afterward to talk to people and further develop her reads. Of the two I think it's obvious that Yell0w is the more likely scum candidate. Epishade: Makes his case here. Self-explanatory, this is clearly the result of reasoned, deliberate detective work, not a bus. Eden: Finally votes for dfs here after looking for reasons not to vote dfs here. If dfs was deliberately bused for town credit, this ain't it. Eden has no reason to do this, having already spearheaded the dravernor lynch, and being on the tail end of a scum lynch doesn't get you town credit anyway. I don't think this makes Eden more town, just that it makes him an invalid candidate for the whole "dfs's teammates sold him downriver" idea. So the plausible candidates for a fourth mafia, to ahs's third, based on last turn are Yell0w or, less likely but still possible, bunnies. I think it's obviously Yell0w of those two. - Yell0w's arguments against me are manipulative and wrong: 1) He says he wants to kill me because meat said so. He's ignoring -- and hoping you'll all ignore with him -- the fact that meat said to kill ahswtini first, and that ahswtini is voting for me and was voting for me when Yell0w put his vote down. This is the main thing that's driving me to think that Yell0w and ahswtini are partners and that we have four mafia. If Yell0w were really following meat's reads like he's insinuating he is, why isn't he going in the order that meat said? The obvious answer is that it's LYLO, he and ahs are teammates and he knows that he can win it this turn by getting me killed instead of his teammate. And if he's really town following meat's reads, why isn't he really skeptical about the fact that meat's top scumread is voting for me? 2) He says I'm "not even trying anymore to give reasons to lynching [him]" and then goes on to name the reason I voted to lynch him. Please. He's acting like "not trying to find the mafia" isn't a valid reason to kill someone at LYLO. It's completely valid, I've made the case nearly a week ago now for that and he still hasn't found the time to rebut it satisfactorily. He says he's not mafia because he lead the vote on dfs, when that's demonstrably not true; I've covered this earlier in this post. Most damning to me is the line after that: "I know I didn't post much yesterday, but dfs was mafia and he was getting killed, there was nothing else to say." You're kidding me, right? There's at least one mafia and very likely two mafia still out there, and this guy says there was nothing else to say. This proves to me that Yell0w was just busing dfs for credit. If he were actually town and sure about dfs getting lynched, he would spend the remaining time trying to find the other teammate(s) hiding out. 3) He says I just voted dfs because I didn't have a better target. Yup, after a lot of thinking about the game and finding myself unable to convince people to vote for my main suspects -- and I certainly tried; I thought the fact that the people everyone was scumreading just piled onto dfs was sketch and I pointed it out, no one responded to it -- I went on dfs over bunnies. I think that was an obvious choice regardless of my alignment. I'm not going to argue this makes me more townie, only that it's manipulative to say it makes me scummy. It's null. The choice was too clear no matter what. 4) He says I bused dravernor for town credit. Again, please. Where's the proof of this? Epishade's already addressed this point pretty well I think, you'd have to argue that dravernor was playing her entire game from D1 just to set herself up for me to bus her on D3 because we were scumreading each other the whole game. That argument that can only come from trying to make a retroactive justification for a conclusion you've already adopted. Any honest assessment of my interactions with dravernor and dfs has to conclude I'm obviously town. tl;dr: read it If I move off Yell0w, I'm only moving off of Yell0w to prevent vote-splitting. I'm the current lynch target which means all three of Epishade/bunnies/me need to unite our votes. If bunnies and Epishade won't vote Yell0w but will vote ahswtini, I'll move to ahswtini, because I think Yell0w and ahswtini are scum. If they won't vote either, we lose anyway. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. A lot of what Eden brings up feels like someone who's really trying to figure things out. His posts are methodical and he really goes in-depth in them. More in-depth than I think a mafia would be willing or capable of doing. Bunny was also willing to talk during the night, at a point where I feel that town had no benefit of talking during the night. Had I raised suspicions on Yellow, there's a chance Yellow might still have been alive, and Eden might have been shot instead. Talking during the night in the situation that we were in would only give mafia a better idea of who to shoot, based on who has suspicions on which people. I could see that. Maybe Eden could see that too (as opposed to not talking to appear more townie as mafia). Of all people, I'm surprised Bunny wasn't able to think that one through. Maybe we all have slip-ups and that was just one of yours? It's a little difficult for me to say I'd believe that was a slip-up though. For Eden, the main suspicious thing I find about Eden is his scumread on Yellow the entire game, when I feel that Yellow was a strong town-read for me. Another thing I have on Eden was his asking Tamburini who he was going to shoot. He admitted he didn't think that one through. The last one was asking us if either of us were parity cops. Idk what he would have done with that information if one of us had answered yes lol. Certainly wouldn't believe it if either of us said yes, and no way to check either. It's a little weird at this point to be asking that I thought, but it might have been a trap. If Bunny or I were mafia though, I don't think we'd be dumb enough to fall for it. If one of us said yes to that, we'd never be able to explain our actions throughout the course of this game as being the second worst parity cop in all of TL mafia. On the flip side, in one of the posts spoilered above, Eden counters Yellow's point that in order for himself to have been mafia this game, Drav would have had to have been setting herself up to be bussed from day 1. It's not something that I can likely see happening in this game. I think I feel that, right now, Bunny is more worthy of getting voted from me. Sorry Bunny. | ||
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On May 16 2014 02:11 27ninjabunnies wrote: Eden- Tbh- Eden was pretty town d1. His push on yell0w wasn't too hard to seem scummy, but it wasn't too soft ether. He gave reasonings that were actually pretty good. His switch onto tamburini was weird, even if tamburini was serial killer. His reasonings were too. + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2014 11:51 Eden1892 wrote: You're not assessing this properly. Take a look at my incentives with each alignment. Town: I want to kill the serial killer and the mafia if I believe both to be in the game. I think mtamburini is fakeclaiming as serial killer because his claim only makes sense in the scenario I described in my big post. He's just making himself the n1 kill if he's actually the vigilante, which is colossally stupid. It's better for me to kill the serial killer over a mafia because removing the serial killer takes away 1 of the 2 anti-town kp. If I killed, say, Yell0w and he flipped scum, we've caught a mafia, but we're equally close to winning (as in either case we've killed 1 anti-town player), and we still have 2 anti-town kp instead of one to deal with. The serial killer is always the better kill. Mafia: I can just shoot mtamburini tonight without drawing any attention to myself if I think he's actually the vigilante. If I'm mafia and I come out with this big case saying that the vigilante is actually the serial killer, and I don't get him lynched, I'm getting shot that night. If I do get him lynched, I'm getting myself lynched the next day. In both cases I'm needlessly throwing away my life to get rid of a vigilante I could just shoot that night at no cost. You could also, as mafia shoot the serial killer, because serial killer always has the chance of shooting your mafia partners. However, that is neither here nor there. The fact that Eden doesn't even bring up the possibility ofa roleblocker makes me think that he is more town in this instance. Wouldn't that imply that he knew serial killer wouldn't have taken the immunity from 1 kp during the night? If Eden were mafia, I don't think he'd risk wasting a shot on serial killer at night. Regardless of that, your implication that just because Eden doesn't bring up there being a potential roleblocker makes him more town doesn't seem like a good reason to me. It's a minute detail that Eden could have left in or out regardless of his alignment and it would mean nothing. It seems to me that you are forcing cases to make Eden seem like town so that you can vote for me instead. Eden scum reads both mafia all days that he gives his reads. That is some major bussing there if he is mafia. Eden's posts are actually consistant with finding mafia. So my read has flipped. Epishade is probably the mafia out of you two. I agree here too. I don't think Eden is mafia because of the bussing that would be necessary from day 1 if he were. He's been scumreading them both as mafia for most of the game, something that, I'll admit, I haven't done all that much. But Drav and dfs have been hard scumreading me the entire game, and Eden for the most part too. What sense would it make for both Drav and dfs to scumread me from Day1 for the whole game if I were their partner? Then they turn around and clear you as town, sometimes for odd reasons, like in the post that I made before. Eden also drove the wagon on Drav too at a time when he probably could have switched to Meat and saved a potential teammate. Eden's not mafia for me, which only leads to you then. Epishade So the only thing that Epishade has going for him is that he was townread by basically the entire town, including me and Eden, though Eden was iffy on him at one point, but switched his read on him. Also, ritoky, (something Eden pointed out in one of his reads) is really sure that epishade is mafia here. Not sure if it is something fully we need to look at. This was something I said to Meat, too, and was why I questioned Meat to begin with. I'll post my response to Meat as it ties in here: I don't think many people here suspected Ritoky as being scum. (I may be wrong, I'm going off memory here and don't want to look through the whole thread to see people's thoughts on Ritoky) So it's not entirely unlikely for mafia to kill Ritoky as he was town-viewed by many people and probably wouldn't have ever been a lynch candidate. However, I think it's interesting to note that you think Ritoky was killed because he viewed me as scum, instead of the above, that he was town-viewed by majority. What about a scenario like this: Ritoky thinks I'm scum. Mafia kills Ritoky. Someone (mafia) steps up and says that Ritoky must have been on the right path to have been killed. Person that steps up thinks it's suspicious of me since Ritoky died and he suspected me most. Now, I made that post before I realized something. I didn't catch this until an hour or so ago, but you made some posts here. On May 06 2014 10:06 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, so I got roleblocked once again in the night. I wanna say that since Ritoky brought up the idea of jailkeeper, and that I could have been blocked by the JK, then I'm asuming he was the one wh blocked/saved me. So if mystery AND tamburini got blocked as well, then we are looking at a town and mafia roleblocker left. Ok, so you've figured out that Ritoky is likely the jailkeeper since he brought up the possibility of a jailkeeper protecting you. Assuming you're mafia, you know you don't really need the protection. You have no reason not to kill him next, as he is a blue role that could potentially negate one of your shots. If you're not mafia, and you're actually town, then this was a bad post. You're alerting mafia to the chance that Ritoky is jailkeeper. No reason to figure out blue roles like that in this game and then say who you think it is to town. Then you have this post after Ritoky gets shot and Tamburini asks why he shouldn't shoot people. On May 08 2014 14:13 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, tamburini, you shouldn't shoot me because I was obvious town being roleblocked by the jailer, which mafia confirmed by killing off of ritoky, who pretty much claimed to roleblock me. Not only this, but I have been seemingly town, trying to figure out game, and though I have pushed mislynches on several people, did push the lynch on dravernor yesterday, when I could have easily voted off meat and (probably) lost town the game. Also, because I am no longer being protected by jailer in the night, I'm more than likely going to be killed in the night. So here is who I would shoot. I would shoot between Ahs, dfs, and Eden, in that order. I can give information as to why but I'm mostly using process of elimination. Obviously, if you are vigi, you and I are town. I find Epishade and Eden more townie than not though I am wary that one of them might be a very good mafia scum leading more noobish mafia team, however, I wouldn't shoot them just yet. If you weren't blocked in the night, more or less we must believe meat's claim, or atleast for now. So he is off the table until tomorrow. Yell0w, although while I was initially d1 scumreading because of how he was trolly and claimed mafia, I believe he is town as he has been trying to figure out the game. Good luck gentlemen. Isn't it a bit strange to be clearing yourself as town just because you were protected by the jailkeeper? Sure, everybody saw you as town at this point, but I would in no way clear even myself just because I was blocked by jailkeeper. Nobody has any clue that jailkeeper actually was doing the right thing by blocking you. Ritoky just happened to believe you were town at risk of dying in the night, so he protected you. To claim that mafia confirmed your townieness by killing off Ritoky after protecting you doesn't make any sense. You didn't need the protection anyways because you were mafia. Of course you were going to kill Ritoky as soon as you figured it out, which you did in the post above this. The fact that Dravernor and dfs were both mafia here, puts pretty high suspicion on Epishade. Meat also died in the night, and had a scumread on Epishade, dravernor, and dfs as the mafia trio. Meat had a scumread on Drav, dfs, Ahs, and Eden, in that order when he died. I wasn't in his scumread, but I still don't usually think you should take into account the reason somebody died being their previous thoughts on people. I happened to move forward with the Ahs lynch after Meat died not just because of Meat's trap, but also as a result my own detective work. Ahs was a special circumstance that in that I did include information that Meat had gathered in weighing my decision to vote for him. SO for me, it seems as mostly the data points to epishade here. Also, someone pointed out, that epishade and I seemed to be buddying. Either epishade jumped in my pocket, or my into his. I think it's the latter because of how townie I was reading him, and the fact I think he is mafia. I find it weird here that Epishade puts dravorner as neutral read, and votes yellow. I do suppose that is a read I have going against me. I wanted to go in-depth on my read on Drav, but by the end of making the whole post I realized I was inconclusive. There wasn't enough evidence to push Drav one way or the other at the time for me. I voted Yellow at the time because, though I didn't think he was scum, I didn't think anybody else in particular was scum either. I'd rather vote on Yellow and get solid information out of it, since he's been the center of attention, than some random person and get nothing. So epishade reads: Had Dravernor as slight town d1, gave no read on dfs except that he talked a bit.Scum reads on and off on dfs and dravernor in the following days Both of you are fantastic players (definitely not newbie, especially if Eden's playing in that champions game haha), and for whoever is mafia, I commend you on a job well done. I am town here, is the best I can say. If anyone has any questions feel free to ask ##Vote: Epishade Same. I'm still not convinced not to vote for you though Bunny, sorry. ##VOTE: 27ninjabunnies | ||
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And I personally don't think Ritoky reading you as town matters much at this point. Everyone read you as town back then. | ||
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I disagree with Eden about Bunny freaking out disproportionately. I don't think that indicates a caught mafia. She has a right to be freaked out about being lynched, but mafia or town regardless would (or rather, should) have the same reaction. If anything that just means she's passionate about the game. I wouldn't indicate that as a particular alignment trait. And Bunny, I'm sorry, but continuously telling us that you're town doesn't help. Mafia would be saying exactly the same thing in your situation. The only thing I can do is look at the evidence for you and Eden. And it doesn't point in your favor. If Eden is in fact mafia and we lose, I know I'll have looked at all the evidence and came to my best decision I could have made with what I found. | ||
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On May 15 2014 17:20 Eden1892 wrote: Nah I was just asking because I thought for sure there was a parity cop in the game and I wanted to save myself some time. I'd have believed either of you claiming it. Looks like we don't have one though. Erm, why would you have believed either of us claiming it if we had? Wouldn't that just mean you don't really care which one of us gets lynched? Say Bunny said that she was cop. Does that mean you'd believe her and just vote for me? | ||
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On May 16 2014 08:47 27ninjabunnies wrote: I still don't see how it doesn't point in my favor. I have multiple CONFIRMED TOWN reading me as town. One of them, being tamburini, saying NEVER lynch me this game. The highest point each of you have on me is that 1, my posts have been lacking towards the end of the game, which I've already pointed out reasons for, and 2, that scum read me as town. Well guess what, SO DID THE ENTIRE TOWN. Also, name a place where my reads havent been conistant or have had back up to? I voted dravernor, and told him/her to speak, in which dravernor did nothing to prove otherwise he was town. So I kept my vote on him. Sure, I didn't give an elaborate reading on her for the lack of her posting. She only had 2 pages of filter!!! And dfs only had 3! I voted on both mafia. Why would I buss in that instance, lose 2 mafia partners, when I could have jumped on the yell0w bw? Or meat bw? When those votes were going through. If I was mafia, we COULD HAVE WON by now if I had placed my votes elsewhere. But n, instead i vote off 2 of my mafia partners? Please. I LED on 1 mafia, and voted the other. Confirmed town reading you as town means nothing. Town doesn't know who's actually mafia. Confirmed mafia reading you as a particular alignment means a heck of a lot more. They know each alignment. Their reads are a lot more reliable in regards to actually catching mafia. Them scumreading me and Eden, and townreading you leads me to believe that you're the mafia of the three of us. And then you claiming that Drav was scumreading you in your earlier post, when, in reality that was only for a very short time before she cleared you as town, also adds to your scummyness for me. | ||
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On May 16 2014 08:56 27ninjabunnies wrote: Also, look at my post on the previous page. I pointed out multiple posts, over multiple days, where Drav had either fenced me or scum read me, then changed his read. All over a couple of days. So you are both wrong. Let me recheck then. Hold on. | ||
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@Eden, just how would she have proven her claims that you'd have been willing to believe them. Nobody's here to refute them. How could they have checked out? She could have just made up anything and you'd have no way of telling that she was lying or not. | ||
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On May 16 2014 09:32 27ninjabunnies wrote: it means I am mafia WE GOT'EM! | ||
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On May 16 2014 09:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, the reason why I said the yell0w thing is because of this. I had no idea which one of you it is, but yell0w was my top town read. If you were town, Eden, and yell0w pointed you out as his number one scum, epishade would have kept yellow alive, because he knew he would go on you, and therefore he could pass off as town, and get you ml. However, yell0w died, which points to you being mafia anyway. Also, tbh, I forgotten days are 48 hours and not 24 hours until someone pointed it out, so you may think that my defense is too defensive for right now, but I told you why I am getting defensive. Because i am town, and we need to find the actual mafia here. I already looked at this before. Case about Yellow getting shot. + Show Spoiler + Eden's been pushing for Yellow the whole game, save for a tiny bit where he thought Yellow might have been town. Yellow got shot during the night, as I'm sure Bunny made it clear that she thought Yellow was town. I also felt that Yellow was town, so there was little chance Yellow would be lynched. Here are the scenarios for me. 1.) Eden shot Yellow, as Yellow was sure to vote for him had he survived. Bunny would have jumped on that vote just as well, as she's been suspecting Eden for much of the game too. 2.) Bunny shot Yellow, as nobody would have voted for Yellow because he was read as town for much of the game. The only person that didn't read him as town was Eden, who would have likely voted for him in this scenario had Yellow survived. Yellow would have then voted on Eden, and Bunny would have jumped on the Eden vote. OR 3.) Bunny shot Yellow to frame Eden in the first scenario, had any of us thought of it and recognized it. I wish there were more of a use in analyzing Yellow's death, but it really doesn't help, as I think both scenarios 1 and 3 are equally likely. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 16 2014 09:43 27ninjabunnies wrote: I don't know why ya'll are going back and forth on me being parity cop, when I'm not parity cop. Is there a point to this? My reasoning was that if Eden asked us whether either of us were parity cops, and one of us said yes, he'd believe them and lynch the other person, regardless of actual alignment. I thought he was asking us as a trap at first, to see if either of us would claim, just because I thought it really unlikely for any of us to actually be parity cops and that if we did claim it would be like a trap, making us look scummy. Say you did claim, Bunny. Now Eden before said he'd believe them if they had claimed. The problem is that it is unfalsifiable. You can't prove your parity cop claim to us, yet Eden would be willing to vote for the other party if parity cop would be able to give sound reasoning for each step they took in this game. There's no way that parity cop could actually do that though! His response here is unsatisfactory for me. On May 16 2014 09:40 Eden1892 wrote: Not at all! If she were fake claiming, she'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose. Imagine she claimed normal cop instead of parity cop, and said she had a guilty on me and innocent on you. We can look at her actions this turn -- shifting back and forth between the two of us, unsure who's scum -- and know she's lying. There may not have been a counterclaim, but her scans still have to make sense with what she's said. I'd carefully reread her filter for any reads on the alleged scanned players and see if they make sense. "She'd have to go carefully comb through her stated reads on certain days and make sure that all of her votes, reads, etc. are consistent with whatever scans she chose." Hell, I could do that too, if I had claimed parity cop. It might take a while, but I'd be sure to tie up any loose ends to make sure that all of my scans made sense. All my votes would match up and everything and you wouldn't be able to tell any difference. On May 16 2014 09:07 Eden1892 wrote: I don't mean that if she just threw out there that she was the parity cop I'd go "okay, I believe this 100%, lynch Epishade gg." She'd have to show how she breadcrumbed her scans, acted in accordance with her scan data, etc. But if the claim generally checked out then yes, even despite how innocent you've seemed this game, I'd have voted to kill you. Think of it as me asking for roleclaims at LYLO (which where I'm from is standard operating procedure if people haven't claimed yet). I just focused on the parity cop 'cause again, with a godfather and miller in the game it's reasonable to expect there to be one. Moot point anyway since no one claimed a PR. And, just because of that, Eden would be willing to lynch the other person. But you can falsely make a claim "check out". From my point of view, it looks like Eden would have been fine lynching the person who hadn't claimed, despite his alignment. The person that had claimed could make up a bunch of lies just to ensure they wouldn't get lynched, and then Eden would have an easier time lynching the person that didn't claim. I got a lot of thinking to do now. Unvoting you for now. I'm back to undecided. ##Unvote: 27ninjabunnies | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Neither of you feel like mafia! But Bunny has more evidence against her as far as I can tell. It's not much, but it's more than Eden has as far as I can tell. I'm still thinking it over. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
He's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE KILLER, THIS IS CRAZY, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!" Then Bunny's all like, "I CAN'T BE THE MAFIA, THIS IS CRAZY, WHY AM I BEING PUSHED, I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING!" ^^ | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
I have gut feeling that Bunny is town and Eden is scum, but there are a few things I didn't like that both of you guys have ended up doing the past day or two. Eden I didn't like that you believed that Bunny panicking was indicative of her mafia alignment. It seemed like you wanted to say that to sway me to solidify my vote against her. Your parity cop explanation I didn't particularly care for either, but I may be reading too much into that so I'm not sure. I would also disagree that changing my vote isn't indicative of my alignment. Bunny I didn't like that there were many times that you cleared yourself (and dfs and Drav cleared you too) under circumstances that I would find questionable, as well as saying things like Drav was scumreading me on and off the whole game, when really it was only half of the first day. It's stretching the truth. Eden at least was able to keep it objective in what their thoughts on him were. So I guess I have to decide on a gut-feeling vote, Eden, or a vote based on the data, Bunny. I have to grab something to eat... | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
As much as I credit Eden for driving the lynch on Drav, I now believe it was a bus. Drav was voted on by Bunny first, and then by Yellow. Lynching Drav right then, someone already suspicious, would give Eden a lot of town credit, especially if he drove hard to lynch her. Yellow changed his vote off Drav when Eden voted for Drav because Yellow didn't think a mafia (Eden) would want to bus Drav right then. Eden may have been able to stay on the Meat lynch, but I think maybe he saw another opportunity to distance himself from his partners by having dfs split his vote with him, as lynching Meat would likely be able to put a lot of suspicion on dfs and Drav, which might lead to Eden later. Dfs voted for Meat, Ahs switched to Drav, and Drav voted for Meat. Eden knew Drav was dead, which was why he was arguing so strongly for him. When Yellow switched to dfs, Eden strongly argued against lynching dfs, in favor of Drav, under the premise that Yellow was scum so dfs must have been town. Eden was the only person who saw Yellow as scum past day 3, when Tamburini wasn't blocked from shooting. He tried to get a lynch going on Yellow instead of dfs, who seemed to me to be more scummy in my eyes. Nobody went for Yellow, understandably, and Eden switched to dfs at the end. I think Eden wanted to save dfs from being lynched, but saw that he couldn't at that point and voted on dfs instead with the rest of the group. Before that, Eden also argued strongly for the Tamburini lynch, a lynch that I really didn't want to go through after Tamburini claimed vigi. I disagreed with it then, but I thought I saw Eden's reasons for doing so anyways (eliminating an extra kp in the night). Now, from the perspective that Eden is mafia, I can especially see how he would want to lynch Tamburini. Tamburini can't get shot in the night if he chose protection, which is why Eden wanted to lynch him right then. It makes more sense from a mafia perspective, to me, to want to lynch a vigi claim with the chance that they're actually serial killer. If they're not a serial killer, hell you lynch a vigi anyways, or at least a fakeclaiming townie. Yellow getting shot last night. Honestly, it had to be Yellow out of the three of us if Eden were scum. There was no way Yellow wouldn't have voted for Eden, and there was no way I or Bunny would have voted on Yellow. This kind of goes against my wanting to analyze the Yellow death last night, but I'm bringing it back again. Bunny didn't push all that hard on Yellow's death being a deciding factor in reading Eden as scum, which, to me, was unusual. Had she tried to push it that Eden had killed Yellow for these reasons, I'd have considered it as Bunny trying to frame Eden. Even though I had that scenario listed before, I'm surprised Bunny didn't try to attempt it anyways. Having seen Bunny's reactions, I think scenario 1 I listed is more likely, that Eden killed Yellow to prevent Yellow from voting on him. The past 2 days have also made me decide to switch. Eden's pushing on Bunny for reasons that I don't find scumworthy have made me suspicious. Her panicking does not indicate her as scum, like Eden seems to think so. I don't think it indicated her as town tbh, but placing a scumread on her panicking wasn't a very good reason for me. You pushing her on arbitrary word choice, even I could care less about that. Your answers to my parity cop questioning I didn't find all that acceptable either. I also feel that Eden sided with me over Bunny specifically because both he and I were scumread by Drav and dfs (though him less so than me). By clearing me as town because of their reads, he's indirectly clearing himself a bit and putting pressure on Bunny because she's read as town by them. It's a good way to get me on his side against Bunny. Bunny had less to protect herself with anyways as she hasn't contributed nearly as much as Eden and I have had, so it wouldn't be hard to push her for that. Eden's played a great town this game. But his sticking on Yellow, and deflecting on dfs after Yellow voted on dfs has swayed me to change my mind. I don't think I'm changing my vote now Eden. Sorry if you're town. ##Vote: Eden1892 | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Sigh. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Yes, dfs and Drav weren't directly townreading you like they were Bunny, but I feel like them fencing you the whole game isn't indicative either. Bunny brought it up before that everyone was townreading her at that point. How strange might it look if dfs and Drav hadn't townread Bunny? Tamburini lynch as well. It feels like you were pushing town in a direction that I was not willing to go. When someone claims vigi, my first thought isn't to immediately lynch them for being a possible serial killer. That's a potential loss of a vigi, which can only hurt town. I don't feel the extra kp that killing a serial killer would lose us was worth lynching a potential vigi over. You being mafia would mean that you were bussing Drav the whole game. You've been scumreading her from day 1, too. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
For now. I guess I gotta make a decision pretty soon then. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 17 2014 06:40 Eden1892 wrote: We might end up x-posting here, but you still haven't answered the crucial question I keep harping on here -- why would dravernor and dfs set themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning like this? It requires prescience that I would end up in the final three, which doesn't make sense at all. One, there's no way to know that on D1, and two, scum don't play for a win like that, they try to get as many people to LYLO as they can so they have as much control of the endgame vote as they can. Willfully sacrificing two thirds of their voting power to push one guy to the endgame doesn't make sense. The only way I can see that you mean they are setting themselves up to be sacrificed from the beginning is that they weren't townreading you, and that if they were townreading you, you might have had more power to sway people. It might not make the most sense to not townread one of your partners, but to me, it's like they're investing in risk. They weren't setting themselves up to be lynched later, but you were the strongest of the two of them (if you are mafia, anyways). If they get lynched, them not townreading you would make you look townie in comparison. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
##Vote: Eden1892 No time to change now anyways. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Eden, was I on track with that parity cop thing, did you slip up? | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Eden: Y'all are gonna have some catching up to do. I'm challenging Epishade here. He seems weak. I'll see if I can't get an opening. hahaha. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 17 2014 09:26 27ninjabunnies wrote: Robik+Bunnies qt! http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/dZmhF7V34xrgg He yelled at me dammit! Lmao Pshhhht, that's nothin. Take a look at my QT! http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/bK4tBvRvCap | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 15 2014 16:10 Epishade wrote: Another thing I have on Eden was his asking Tamburini who he was going to shoot. He admitted he didn't think that one through. The last one was asking us if either of us were parity cops. Idk what he would have done with that information if one of us had answered yes lol. Certainly wouldn't believe it if either of us said yes, and no way to check either. It's a little weird at this point to be asking that I thought, but it might have been a trap. If Bunny or I were mafia though, I don't think we'd be dumb enough to fall for it. If one of us said yes to that, we'd never be able to explain our actions throughout the course of this game as being the second worst parity cop in all of TL mafia. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
Misread what you said. Wonder if anyone got it though during the game. | ||
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