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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 06 2014 10:02 kushm4sta wrote: I've got like two fat posts on you a couple pages back. One is ... messy, the other is more concise and specific.godamnit austin which posts? can you facilitate this process as to minimize the amount of time i have to spend talking to you? And yes, I realize you're likely to be River Song. | ||
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kushm4sta
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austinmcc
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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kushm4sta
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thrawn2112
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kushm4sta
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On April 06 2014 10:14 thrawn2112 wrote: but you called him town all game long i thought i was doing all my role shit in the thread that excused me from making reads | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Vivax
21974 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
vivax what page is your post on | ||
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Vivax
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kushm4sta
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Vivax
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kushm4sta
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kushm4sta
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.nerdist.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/tenth-doctor.jpg) Time to save the day, like only the Doctor could! First off, here is my role PM. "You are the Doctor, the last remaining Time Lord. Being a Time Lord you can survive things most people can’t, thus giving you an extra night life (you are a vet). Unfortunately, you have only your sonic screwdriver with you because you can’t get to your time machine, the TARDIS. Thankfully, your sonic screwdriver can do practically anything. This means you have the following three abilities to choose from each night: protect, track, roleblock. You must use each of these abilities the same number of times before using another ability again, e.g. you must use each ability once before using any ability twice, you must use each ability twice before using any ability three times, etc. PM your action and your target’s name to all hosts. You win with the Town." I still say that it doesn't benefit town much claiming, aside from getting a better picture of what the setup could possibly look like, but enough people are asking that it would be more of a distraction otherwise. Aside from a possible endgame save with my vet, my role likely won't save the game by itself. Since no mafia have flipped, its more important to try to solve the game today. On night one, I tracked Djodref. I saw him visit JarJar and concluded that he had given him the nuke. On April 02 2014 05:38 kitaman27 wrote: Try reading it from the "if I were a townie djo or if I were a mafia djo how would I post?" perspective and let me know which makes more sense to you. On April 02 2014 09:17 kitaman27 wrote: Nevermind on that one. I've actually removed djo from my ever shrinking possible mafia lynch. Originally, I was thinking that he took the position he did knowing more information than he should about rayn and my alignments, but I don't think that applies as well as I thought. There was something else that I found townie from him that I won't go into. Prior to the deadline, I hinted that I had a mafia read on Djo, which was the reason that I tracked him. After discovering that he had visited JarJar, I went back and looked into his filter finding this post: On April 01 2014 18:18 Djodref wrote: Oh and yeah, I really think JJD is town because of the slips arguments. I don't think you come with these kind of arguments when you're are mafia. I really believe that JJD is looking for these kind of slips in other players filters. As a result, I felt that his target followed a townie line of reasoning as he visited his most trusted player. As an inventor, he could have invented something incredibly anti-town, but he chose not to, which is why my read swapped so suddenly without explanation. "There was something else that I found townie from him that I won't go into." should make it pretty obvious that I tracked him. On Night Two, I protected austin. I bread crumbed it in my post here: On April 05 2014 05:09 kitaman27 wrote: *Shines sonic screwdriver at austin in an attempt to blind him* I went back and forth between using protect and roleblock last night. If I had a confirmation that kp are delivered fractionally, then I likely would have thrown a roleblock on vivax since I could possibly stop a conversion too. I decided that I was more likely to prevent a shot through protection in the end. There were two people I considered protecting: 1) austin 2) Djo austin appeared pretty townie throughout day one and day two. He is also one of the few players that in my opinion have the ability to completely solve the game single handily. Protecting him ensured that I would have a player that will almost certainly be active on day three that I would be able to bounce ideas off. Djo was the inventor. As far as I'm aware, I was the only person who was aware of this at the time. While djo wasn't a huge suspect, he didn't appear like a huge threat to the mafia team, unless they knew his role. Even if djo got shot, he would still be able to invent an item that would be used this cycle. While he had the more powerful role, I thought austin was more likely to get hit so I got greedy. Obviously, I made a mistake there (actually hurt my foot kicking the door when I read the day post -_-) Tonight, I will be forced to use my roleblock since it is the only role I have not used yet. As an aside, I am not informed whether or not I still have my vet status. I could have taken a hit night one when all the kp were missing, but I'm not sure I would have been a likely target, especially with the whole rayn 1v1 ordeal. I know this argument is based on trusting my role claim, but consider the fact that I knew djo was the inventor on day two and he was not converted or roleblocked. The inventor is by far the strongest role in the game and if the mafia had the ability to convert that role, they most certainly would. You can say that it was supicious that djo was shot when I knew his role, but at the same time, if I was mafia and was going to shoot him I most certainly would have roleblocked him as well. Shooting him alone means another invention is still created, which mafia would not want to deal with. This is based on the assumption that you believe that I have a roleblock. While you would need to trust me, I can confirm my power if necessary, by rbing hopeless tonight and ensuring that he does not receive any results. Furthermore, I am a vet in a setup where town does not have any kp. That doesn't make sense as a mafia role, although again, I can't prove that part of my role right now. Now lets take a look at our list of investigative, protective roles, and roleblocking roles: Investigative: Detective, 1-shot tracker, modified watcher Protective Roles: Medic, Jailkeeper, 1-shot protect, my vet role, Shrink Roleblocking: Roleblocker, Jailkeeper, 1-shot roleblock On top of these three categories, there is the inventor which could fit into any of these categories on a given day. There are two things to consider with the set of role claims that we currently have: 1) Is it reasonable to think that all roles in a given category are town aligned? With the sheer number of power roles, I'm almost certain that the mafia team would need some type of roleblocking or redirection type role. In a normal mini setup, you'll generally give the mafia a roleblocker if there are two blues in the game. In this game, there are 11 claimed power roles. Sure, the conversion mechanic that is likely in the game can help deal with the burden, but with extremely powerful roles like Detective, Jack, Inventor, etc, they would simply get overrun with night actions. JarJar claimed to have green checked austin on night one. Based on his play and the fact that the godfather and roleblocker role aren't usually built into one role, I'm willing to trust the check. Assuming there is a mafia roleblocker in this game and non of the claims have a roleblocking ability on top of what they already do, that leaves the Jailkeeper or vanilla roles as being suspicious, aka one of Vivax, thrawn, and Tehpoofter. The number of protective roles is off the chart. Even if the mafia team survives the onslaught of investigative roles, they won't even be able to get their shots through. gumshoe and rayn have already flipped town. It makes very little sense for town to have a medic AND jailkeeper. Again, that leaves Vivax as being suspicious. We have a ton of investigative roles as well, especially when you assume that the inventor is likely going to be producing dt checks of his own. Like I mentioned earlier, one thing I considered was that the Mickey role could have been created for mafia to counteract the Rose role. Whenever Rose performs an alignment check on a player, Mickey would receive information that could provide clues as to who Rose just checked. If the player name that Mickey receives from his result claims at any point, then Mickey knows who has been checked. This is helpful in two ways. 1) The mafia team would know who there is a red check on. They would have the opportunity to bus that player, prior to the dt posting their checks making the remaining members look good as a result. 2) The mafia team would know who there is a green check on. They would be able to either shoot that player outright or even more powerful, target them with a conversion, allowing them to have a mafia player with a green alignment check on them. As a town role, this makes less sense. I suppose a modified watcher is plausible, but knowing who a town Rose targeted isn't very useful and once she dies, the role is pretty useless. The watcher isn't targeted, so there isn't much room for a town player to pull off a skilled night action. Detective, inventor, 1-shot tracker, and watcher seems too harsh for mafia to go up against as well. My argument here also assumes that the Mickey role would have knowledge that Rose is a detective. JarJar was shot before claiming so there is some evidence to support this, but its not conclusive. Between the two scenarios that I just outlined, I think Vivax being mafia seems more likely than Hopeless being mafia. If he is red, it would fit both the "mafia has a rber" and the "town has too many protective roles" conjecture. Like I said before, I need to further investigate if hopeless and Vivax as scum buddies make sense or if one, but likely not until one of them flips. Finally, it is strange that 12 players in this game would have roles and two wouldn't. 2) Which actions can be confirmed as performing a non-conversion action on night one and night two? I think its pretty obvious all roles in this game can't possibly be town aligned. If there are things like a framer or busdriver, the mafia player would need to use their role without claiming a verifiable real action. Additionally, the Shrink role description from rayn strongly suggests that the mafia conversion role is used as a night action. Thus, I've put together a list of all claimed actions. If there is an asterisk next to the cycle, then the action is verifiable. This way, we can figure out who we know wouldn't have been able to use one of these mafia roles.
*Cycle One: Roleblock toad (Confirmed by town check, assuming not godfather) *Cycle Two: Roleblock kita (Confirmed by revealing prior to Vivax JK claim) kitaman27 *Cycle One: Track djo to jarjar Cycle Two: Protect austin Hopeless1der *Cycle One: Watch austin (See Vivax) *Cycle Two: Watch kita thrawn2112 Cycle One: None Cycle Two: None raynpelikoneet *Cycle One: None JarJarDrinks *Cycle One: Dt check austin *Cycle Two: Dt check kita kushm4sta *Cycle One: Double vote *Cycle Two: Shoot gumeshoe Vivax Cycle One: Jailkeeper austin (unverified action, but target confirmed) *Cycle Two: Jailkeeper austin (confirmed by roleblock and austin not appearing in hope results) Djodref *Cycle One: Invents nuke, gives to JarJar *Cycle Two: Invents dt check, gives to kush Amiko Cycle One: None Cycle Two: Received nuke gumshoe *Cycle One: Protected Amiko Tehpoofter Cycle One: None Cycle Two: None If you look at the list of claims, thrawn, Amiko, and Tehpoofter are the only players that do not have anything verifiable on night one or night two. I'm also going to add kush to this list, for while he has verifiable day actions, that doesn't mean its not possible for him to have additional roles during the night. Earlier I mentioned the strangeness of there being two vanilla roles in a 14 player setup. I think it's very likely that either these roles are similar to amiko (assuming he is telling the truth), in that his role changes in some way without his knowledge that he is actually vanilla or that these are fake claims. Here are the claims that we got from amiko, thrawn and poofter in chronological order. On April 05 2014 05:00 Amiko wrote: "You are Porridge, a “little bloke” in the words of Angie Maitland, who you met at one of the greatest amusement parks in the galaxy, Hedgewick’s World of Wonders. You were part of con involving Webley who convinced others that he repurposed a nonfunctioning Cyberman to play chess when in reality it was just you who played chess from a little compartment. You win with the Town." On April 05 2014 05:01 thrawn2112 wrote: "You are Artie Maitland, brother of Angie Maitland. Luckily for you, Clara Oswald is your nanny, so you were able to travel to one of the greatest amusement parks in the galaxy, Hedgewick’s World of Wonders, and that’s pretty much all you’re known for. You win with the Town." On April 05 2014 08:30 Tehpoofter wrote: "You are Angie Maitland, sister of Artie Maitland. Luckily for you, Clara Oswald is your nanny, so you were able to travel to one of the greatest amusement parks in the galaxy, Hedgewick’s World of Wonders, and that’s pretty much all you’re known for. You win with the Town." Something I've considered is whether or not the mafia fake claimed vanilla as scum, without knowledge that there actually aren't any true vanilla roles. The time between Amiko and thrawn's claim is only one minute so I do not think there is adequate time for thrawn to react and assume that vanilla is a possible claim to make. Tehpoofter on the other hand claims two hours afterwards and after seeing two vanilla claims, maybe have assumed that he could have gotten away with a vanilla claim. Mafia are provided with fake claims, but even if you have a fake claim, you need to be able to show how your actions make sense. Claiming vanilla is often the simplest solution. I'm wondering if Tehpoofter is actually Angie Maitland, but chose to modify his role to vanilla for claiming purposes. Based on my understanding of the Doctor Who wiki, Angie Maitland is a character whose mind fuels the Cyber-Planner. According to the wiki, the Cyber-Planner was a device used by the Cybermen to "create and direct battle plans and strategies." This seems like it could fit the flavor of a possible mafia role, rather than having a typical town character like Mickey, randomly show up on the mafia team. Why Vivax is mafia. As I mentioned earlier, the analysis of the setup points to a mafia Vivax. Town likely doesn't have two dedicated protection roles. Mafia likely has a roleblocker to deal with the insane amount of power roles. However, I'm also led to believe that Vivax is mafia based on behavioral analysis. I've already brought up some of these points, but I'm including them for the sake of bringing everything together. 1) An inconsistency in his views On April 01 2014 03:38 Vivax wrote: I like how you explain things around rayn here in your post in spoiler since I got the feeling that he's creating a lot of confusion and drama and I don't like that, it's just that I can't tell if he's doing it on purpose or cause he's just being like that and town but what I do see is that he throws around with scumreads without trying to let them be productive. He's accusatory not inquisitive and he reminds me of the kind of attitude I saw on him in that game where he hydraed with Mocsta as scum, in which he also behaved pretty negatively throughout the game. On April 01 2014 03:46 Vivax wrote: The way you replied to rayn made me feel better about you cause you pointed out his disruptive attitude. On April 04 2014 01:42 Vivax wrote: You and kita on the other hand both pushed rayn and now both push me so I'll have to reevaluate some things cause I can't imagine kita being this bad as town, although for you it's perfectly possible. Read these posts in succession. On day one, he shares multiple times that he likes the way I approached rayn on day one and supports the way that I approached his disruptive attitude, even if he would have rather lynched slam to buy us some more time to look into rayn. However, the following day he states that he "can't imagine kita being this bad as town". This is a complete shift in attitude. At no point during day one does he call my case on rayn bad. Now suddenly I'm so bad that there is no way that I'm anything but mafia. The sudden shift in view points does not seem congruent for town play. Rather than explaining things, in his defense he argued that the reason that he posted this was that I wasn't interested in listening to his defense. The problem with this? This time line is IMPOSSIBLE! (Unless you're a time lord) He argues that I'm bad and therefore scum because I'm not willing to consider his response. However, from the time I make my case on Vivax to the time he calls me bad, I haven't posted. So how could I be bad for ignoring his defense post, when there is no evidence that I'm even in the thread? This is a logical fallacy that Vivax chooses to push anyways. 2) A predetermined agenda regardless of facts On April 04 2014 02:17 Vivax wrote: No, he never asks you a question but thinks you are worthy of today's lynch. On April 04 2014 02:21 Vivax wrote: Something like: "Hey hopeless care to justify that vote on Vivax from yours cause you previously said you were biased about him? Is there any particular reason you join his lynch without saying a word about the reasons just like you did D1 when you fucking genius killed rayn on a whim after encouraging him and kita to go 1 on 1 and then not applying it the next day, effectively shrubbing off as much responsibility for the lynch as possible and not having to deliver any arguments?" Mid-way day two, Vivax starts attacking me for the way that I'm dealing with hope. He is suspicious of the fact that I'm not questioning him and provides an example of the sort of question that I would be asking if I had the town mindset. The problem here? I asked that exact question before he makes this post. On April 04 2014 01:55 kitaman27 wrote: Hope, what led you to this vote compared to when I asked last night? On April 04 2014 02:19 kitaman27 wrote: What about Vivax is scummy to you? Or are you simply voting him over Toad for self-survival? Even though I'm doing exactly what he said a town Kita would be doing, he doesn't show signs of reconsidering his views at all. It seems as if he has already made up his mind and if the evidence isn't there to support it, then so be it. This is strongly indicative of a mafia trait. On April 04 2014 02:24 Vivax wrote: Yeah you just did I was still writing. Congratz on your first question to your scumread. WEEEEEEE Rather than give some thought into reconsider his read, he responds with this sarcastic remark. On top of this, it wasn't my first question, it was like my fourth or fifth. If Vivax has such a strong mafia read on me, why isn't he reading my filter here? In fact, I know he is aware of that fact that I have been questioning hopeless because he wanted to know my reason for asking. On April 03 2014 10:25 Vivax wrote: Before you check out you might want to tell us why you're interested into hopeless' read on me. He later says that he doesn't know what I'm trying to accomplish for the question. So I'm scummy for asking hopeless a question and scummy for not asking hopeless a question all at the same time! 3) Scummy decision making at the time that matters most On April 04 2014 05:06 Vivax wrote: Guys, let's get back to business for a moment while hopeless thinks what he should write. We need a lynch, hopeless is out of question for today imo. Kita or Toad pick one. On April 04 2014 05:24 Vivax wrote: can we postpone role discussion to night phase when time isn't so short and discuss today's lynch? Who Toad, who Kita, who anyone else. For someone who is so sure that I am mafia, he actually doesn't put any effort into getting me lynched. Do you wanna know why? So he can push me again the next day. Notice how he leaves it up to town to decide between myself and Toad, rather than take charge and lynch the player that he is so sure is mafia. He lacks a strong case against toad, aside from the fact that he is useless and don't have a vote. He has multiple talking points about why I am mafia, yet he doesn't care between the two. On April 04 2014 05:24 Vivax wrote: Essentially I don't have a preference between the two but on a tie I'll probably go onto Toad for purposes of damage mitigation in case we mislynch. Not really a problem if we lose a guy who can't vote and is invulnerable and maybe mafia. His explanation is priceless. He is voting toad for the purposes of "damage mitigation in case we mislynch". Have you ever heard of an explanation as weak as this? At no point have I claimed a role here. Toad on the other hand has claimed invulnerable, aka bulletproof, aka ONE OF THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE ROLES IN THE GAME. Yet, he somehow uses this to justify the lynch? If you look at the day one lynch, he also is completely absent when it comes to picking a lynch preference and slamming it down our throats. He shows up towards the end saying that he wants to lynch the survivor claim, but is not a force during the actual day cycle. He doesn't pick apart the argument against rayn, he simply states that rayn is not a good day one lynch and that we need more time. He follows up with a day two push of the survivor claim as the nuke target, without putting in any effort into suggesting mafia targets instead. He says that he wants to kill slam because he doesn't have any scum reads. Well why isn't he showing signs of trying to develop scum reads, rather than going after the easy third party target? 4) The scum post of the century On April 05 2014 13:06 Vivax wrote: I'm kinda afraid to have kita checked cause thrawn and poofter both seem eager for that to happen and I don't want him to be a godfather in that case cause then it's gg. From a mafia Vivax perspective, I'm his only real scum read at this point, but he knows that I'm going to return town to any possible detective checks. So even before the check is out, he is already pushing the godfather suspicions. Knowing that he can't possibly continue to push me if I'm checked, he has no choice but to try to move the check over to someone else because "thrawn and poofter" want it to happen. He likely knows that the game will be decided today and that if there isn't a green check then I'm going to likely be lynched. A check on someone else doesn't matter because I'll be lynched, mafia will get their night hits and town will likely lose control of the day four lynch. What townie honestly thinks to themself: "I've thought that guy is mafia all game, but not that we have the chance to prove it, we better not because he has a 5% chance of being a godfather. If there is a green check on me, he knows that I'm likely going after him and have the town cred to back it up. Vivax is mafia. ##Vote Vivax There are a number of other issues that I'd like to follow up on, but likely won't today. I want to reread hopeless to determine if his play is scummy following the assumption that the Mickey role makes more sense as mafia. I want to see if there is any merit to the thrawn, poofter or kush being a possible mafia recruiter. I'm eliminating amiko due to my strong town read on him earlier on. I want to reread austin's case on kush and myself. Even if I know we are not scum buddies, that doesn't mean he couldn't have decided to check me as town and get away with the town cred. I also started putting together a list of reads from each player from cycle to cycle to see if I could identify any players that would be likely conversion targets, but I simply don't have the time to finish it. Ironic, considering I have a time machine. Finally, I need to decide what should be done with the nuke, whether we fire it today or during the night and who should we target. I don't think I've ever spend so much time on a single post before. Please read every word, rather than skimming it. I think I deserve it based on the amount of effort I put it. At this point I'm so sick of this post that I didn't proof read it, so I apologize for any weird unfinished thoughts or confusing arguments due to typos. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 06 2014 10:12 kushm4sta wrote: you spent a long time defending him HARD though, on regular "he did this and that and these things were townie" avenues, as well as stuff likecause when i townread him, it was only from the first 2 pages of filter lol "you underestimate the fluidity of his reads" and "he had extra information, but scum wouldn't let town know they have extra information, therefore he's town" Its...difficult to accept "I read filters until I think someone is town then I stop" and also see posts like that. You didn't just think he was town, you defended him D2 when he was a legitimate scum option for a LOT of people, so obviously he's not the towniest town ever. In fact, he's not towny enough that you 100% flip your read when you actually look through his filter. The combo of defending without reading everything and defending FOR THE SPECIFIC REASONS you did don't look gewd. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
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