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To me, these things feel unlikely enough to me that they should be discounted. Based on the information I have now, I would see n1k0 calling someone godfather (when all signs point to no godfather) as mafia misdirection.
I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 27 2014 04:07 Amiko wrote:Valenius posted something that I thought might help explain my day 2 since it was read as scummy play. Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 02:55 Valenius wrote:
I honestly do disagree with your entire reasoning behind this. If I were mafia, i'd be trying to blend in, not kill the person who's only raised a kind of case on me. As for "meritorious enough to require answering", I answered them because i felt they were scummy. I've gone through in great detail my thought process behind his posts. Beneather tried to point some suspicion at me too, but his post was absolutely worthless so it didn't require a response.
I don’t think anyone brought a strong case against my day 2, but it is generally perceived as scummy because I didn’t commit strongly to my reads. I agree with Valenius’ comment on Beneather here, and it is the main reason for my day 2 play. In my mind day 2 was picking between three people – Beneather, Valenius, n1k0. N1k0 contributed a few posts but almost all were backpacking. Valenius had an actual case brought against him and was responding. Beneather contributed two posts in two days that had any substance. I felt the best thing town should do is focus on these three, but I did not feel we should vote so quickly. Look at how the day went- When focus was on Valenius, he responded with reads. When focus on n1k0, he responded with reads. We didn’t focus Beneather, he didn’t respond with anything meaningful. We know now that Beneather was probably idle, but if he was lurking mafia I think it was realistic to think if he became a focus, he would try to throw up some kind of defense. We didn’t get any real pressure on him and we paid for it. He became a liability for town nothing to read town or scum and a potential modkill. When we lynched Beneather we had no meaningful discussion because there was nothing to meaningfully discuss. I get that you would both be more comfortable if I joined the voted on n1k0 earlier. But, Beneather's contributions were so empty that I felt we should to try to get information from someone who had somehow gotten by without posting substantively. My posts throughout the day reflect that and I think it was good play.
I think at that point many of us gave up on Beneather, he didn't even bother posting on day 3 so I don't even think we could've gotten much from him day 2.
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I have to go out for about 2 hours so I'll be available for a couple of hours before the deadline. Whoever is the town player out of you two, please make the right choice and vote for the real mafia. If there's a vote for me then it's very likely that we will lose and the one to vote me first is the real mafia. I've played for the town right from the start of the game and it's really a surprise for me to last this long since several players have read me as town throughout various points in the game. I think the only reason why I'm alive and didn't get night killed was because I was the only vote on Valenius, and mafia could try to use that against me. I'm not exactly a strong player but I really tried to put in the effort to help town. I will be really disappointed to see us lose this game, and if we lose then we totally deserve it since the mafia will have outplayed us.
I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later!
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Okay I'm back and just read through the stuff I missed. Really disappointed to see Valenius vote for me. I was leaning towards Amiko being mafia and seeing that Val would have voted for him as well gave me confidence that the choice was right. Having said that, however I really like how Amiko responded to all the pressure and he definitely made the right plays that town would make in this situation.
Looking at Val's justification for voting for me and his play throughout the day I'm led to believe he baited me into voting for the town player (Amiko). I really don't see how he got this from my post:
It really is a very good covering-your-ass post, which is why i haven't properly looked at it before, and it's one of the reasons i put you in my town pile. However, looking at it purely as a scummy view, it pockets me and diverts attention away from yourself, whilst leaving me open as a lynch target.
In my post I basically answered someone's (i forgot who) question on what would it mean if n1k0 flipped red, which I gave quite a bit of thought to and I really thought I was right about it. Unfortunately I'm very sure that Val used my analysis on the implications of n1k0's flip to get the vast majority of town to think he was green. I really regret not pursuing Val further after the flip and I think it was the biggest mistake that town made. Day 3 was a wasted day since we thought Val was town and Beneather got lynched, he would have been modkilled anyway so we completely wasted a day on that. We completely fell for his plan to gain town cred by voting on n1k0 first. He fooled me into thinking voting for Amiko was right.
About my poor play today, I really don't want to make excuses but I had a 3 hour class at 830am and one hour commute to get back home. But whatever, I played poorly today and fell into Val's trap.
@Amiko
I voted earlier because I was leaning on you being mafia and I read that Val was going to vote you, so I had the confidence that I was right about the vote. Seeing the rest of the day play out though, I was completely wrong.
Why I voted before reading the new posts? I had already typed something up and by the time I realized there were new posts out I didn't want to waste all that effort. It was a mistake though.
What do you mean about the third question?
Also, can you direct me to exactly what you want me to respond to? I'm having a hard time finding exactly what you want me to look at.
##Unvote Amiko
##Vote Valenius
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On February 27 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote:
I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist. Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do.
I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense.
I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you?
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 27 2014 06:46 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 06:38 theDragoon wrote:@Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious. 3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently.
If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people. Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me. theDragoon, I responded to at least 2-3 of your points in the posts prior to yours which you said you didn't read. Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#437Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#438Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#430Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 04:33 theDragoon wrote:
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
THIS LOGIC IS BAD. If n1k0 and I are mafia, we have no idea who will catch onto it or not when we vote together. It was a needless risk where little was gained and it makes me look bad whichever day it is raised. --- Valenius is going to sleep soon so we should be talking with him, as town I have to make a case that you are more mafia than I am because I know I am town. If you are town your job right now is to convince him I am mafia.
@Amiko
Ok, I think this is the post you are referring to, I thought I already posted something about this. I might've closed the tab mid-post.
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
So If I understand correctly, your defense is, given the available roles there's a very little chance that there is a godfather because we know there is no cop and that n1k0 was saying all this is to misdirect the town?
I can see it as misdirection from n1k0 since we know he's scum, but I found it really shady that he calls you godfather in the same post that says you're town. If the intent was misdirection then it's clearly worked.
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
I get that you wanted to get more info from Beneather before posting, but there's no denying that it makes you look scummy for holding your vote as long as you did because it might have given mafia a chance to switch the votes to Valenius. I think most of us ignored Beneather because he had no hope in him posting anything valuable.
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
I think I responded to this already right here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=22#431
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities.
I don't know which one of you two is mafia so I probably seeing evidence where there really isn't. I just wanted to get the right guy and your filter had a lot more suspicious things than Val's did. But right now after his vote switch on me and the really poor reasoning behind it, I'm very very sure that he's scum. He's played me twice this game and if we lose then he totally deserves it. He played a hell of a mafia game. The first time with the first vote on n1k0, and the second time was baiting me into voting for you.
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@Amiko
So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other-
If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win.
That makes perfect sense.
If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia.
I think he may have done just that, After I saw his vote I was very confident into voting for you.
If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy.
I think I have been trying to do that all of day 4, I've presented things for both cases of mafia Amiko and mafia Valenius
The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote.
In short, mafia Valenius has to decide:
Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia?
Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia?
I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia.
It's all up to you Amiko, I'm nearly 100% convinced that Valenius is mafia, I've had my eye on him since day 2 and I really regret thinking I was right about him being town after the n1k0 flip.
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On February 27 2014 11:17 Amiko wrote:Ok answer this post from earlier. I am questioning you on your comment that what you did was bait. As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait- Here is the summary, see the post below for more: (1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't. (2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote? (3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now. Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful? (4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD. Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 07:20 Amiko wrote:On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote:
How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. However I'm not convinced right now. 1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter. 2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s 3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes? -- theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
1) I thought I might have a use for it later
2) It does look like bad logic but if mafia were desperate enough to save their own (it would've been a terrible move) they might do it. I probably just didn't think it through.
3) At the time I thought it might be useful but given how day 3 played out there was no changing the course of events that day.
I understand it looks very scummy and if you think that makes me mafia over all the things I've done for town then go ahead and vote for me. It just means you've made the biggest mistake for town and we'd lose because of it.
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@Amiko
I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it.
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In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum.
That's the thing though, his reason to vote for me wasn't even a new post. It was a post I made on day 2.
If you're really 100% certain for voting for me then all I have to say is gg. We fucking lost.
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nooooo dont do this to me amiko noooooooooooooooooo
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gj amiko you made the right choice!
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I've played both mafia and town, and lost both  I think I'll spectate next game 
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EPT
