I think my reads are in thread, I think we have a good lynch, I think part of D5 will depend on the NK, and I have lots of super secret plans that I can't let scum know about.
[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 16
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I think my reads are in thread, I think we have a good lynch, I think part of D5 will depend on the NK, and I have lots of super secret plans that I can't let scum know about. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
x > y > z ? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Marv - + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2014 02:09 marvellosity wrote: At this stage though, WoS is at least trying and VE is not. Not entertaining wifomy shit about that either. On January 25 2014 21:49 marvellosity wrote: The only thing I find weird from Wave today. Weird way of kinda admitting that his reasons for finding VE town are wonky? Meh. Agree with gonzaw though, his filter is remarkable today, can not lynch Worryingly the two other posts I noted down because I agreed with them were from austin This isn't to dig at Wave, this is more to comment on VE. More in a sec austin much better when not wifflewaffling about stupid stuff and actually talking about stuff to do with alignments. Really at the moment it's something like: gonzaw/marv/austin/prome - very sexually attractive wave - becoming increasingly sexually attractive by sheer dint of effort and activity apart from anything else, cba to talk at length because no reason kita - also becoming increasingly attractive, to a lesser extent. I went back to read his large vote analysis post because at the time I wasn't convinced why for whatever reason. It looks better the 2nd time round. People have kinda taken the piss out of his combinatrics, but he seems to be trying to eliminate unlikely teams within that post, which in turn eliminates possible mislynches if he's mafia. I would like you to answer kita (because it wasn't abundantly clear to me) how you've arrived at Prome as "town". In your analyis post it seemed like you were basically coming around to the idea that Prome wasn't mafia anymore, but without being particularly firm about it as far as I could tell. Did your vote analysis + other people's comments firm up your town read on Prome? Or what? Foolishness case also quite compelling, didn't read too forced, made some sense, so... foolish - was kinda sexually attractive, now in fear of beer goggles. I keep reading his filter because people keep talking about him, and I keep understanding what people are saying, but all his posts now read so natural and not-bad to me :/ I'm shit-scared that i'm wrong but meeeeeh. i'm good enough and, frankly, i have the most recent game experience (last year or two) with foolish out of anyone here. for whatever reason gonzaw is the person i'm most likely to listen to on gonzaw because he seems to approach his alignment in a similar way to me. and gonzaw is starting to think he's scummy... bleh toad - quite ugly. Honestly I'm not understanding any of the rationale put forth by austin on why the slot is particularly townie. Don't get the Holyflare "brainz" thing. I understand to a more limited extent Prome's point on D1 that Holy couldn't be "that terrible" with something he posted if he were scummy, but still meh. I also cannot get over the idea of someone reading through a thread and missing out someone's posts, even as an aid to "save time" because ultimately it doesn't save much time at the time, it doesn't save time in the long run, and it makes other people's posts harder to understand. I can't imagine doing it myself. The case on Wave is weak and again I do not understand austin's rationale of "it's weak in a townie way". No, it's just weak. He's one of my two mafia currently. would kill VE - also quite ugly. I'm so over the woe is me routine. He came back to the thread posting yesterday and I was all like "yay, maybe he's town!" but then he kinda just wandered around listlessly and bitched at stuff. This feels like one of those times someone is being allowed to slip under the radar while people distract themselves with more shiny things. Remember how suspicious people were of VE right post-flip? And yet somehow now, there's nothing... what's warranted this, actually? Nothing... The one thing I'm basically worried is happening with the way things have been going is that Foolish = town, and he's right that lynching into that list would actually win the game for town. So... there has to be a push by mafia (if that would win the game) to lynch outside of that list, and Foolish is the target. In particular this makes me quite paranoid of kita. Nonetheless I think we should go for the best of both worlds and find the MOST suspicious people from Fool's list and lynch them and worry about things if we haven't won by then. In other words, VE/Toad mafia, let's kill them. oh PS, there's also a non-zero chance I won't be around for deadline today, social thingies. Fair warning too On January 26 2014 03:43 marvellosity wrote: And you think Wave is a good vote today after he's been the most active this cycle? On January 26 2014 22:46 WaveofShadow wrote: Which I have noticed, specifically called him on and tried to see if we could do something about. As for filter length, as people have said quantity != quality but I'd like to think there's at least a little bit in there. It pisses me off that anyone can say I'm not trying. As either alignment. This post is WoS's, but leads to the next two On January 26 2014 22:49 marvellosity wrote: Yeah, I'll give you "a little bit" of content buddy. That's as far as I'll stretch ![]() On January 26 2014 22:52 marvellosity wrote: Put it this way: if you're mafia, I'm extremely impressed with your effort and commitment this cycle. Big focus on EFFORT, ACTIVITY, very little focus on actual posts. There's not a whole lot else that I'm finding super mega interesting, except for marv's scumread on Foolishness into his vote. Here is why: (1) Marv, on D2 and N2, appears to mainly be worried about Foolishness BECAUSE of Foolishness's scumread on WoS and his unwillingness to relent from that read (remember, this is after WoS posts a bunch, and most of thread goes from scummy to townie on WoS) Marv being critical of Foolishness's scum read on WoS - + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2014 23:52 marvellosity wrote: Fool, what's the point in Wave doing this as mafia when literally noone agreed with him and it just made him stick out from the crowd? On January 28 2014 00:01 marvellosity wrote: This is so so wonky On January 28 2014 00:06 marvellosity wrote: This is even wonkier though, seems like Fool is threatening gonzaw, or gonzaw is suspicious, or something? But then immediately following these posts Fool is treating gonzaw as town again. What do you make of this Wave? (or anyone about who cares to read) None of Fool's recent posting reads like it comes from a townie, from his intransigence on the Wave read (along with the rationale), to the being ok but not ok but ok with the VE lynch, to being sure about Wave but saying he might be wrong, to the weird threats to gonzaw. I am frowning. Now, marv also grabs a kita quote about Foolishness's lack of concern for his town image this game, but it appears that a lot of the reason marv gravitates towards a scumFool read is his WoS read, sureness of that read, and him not wanting to back off it. In terms of REASONS that marv has been scummy on Foolishness through D2/N2/start of D3, the MAIN thing that I see in marv's filter is Foolishness's WoS read is wrong, he's being too stubborn about it. I KNOW that I don't have 18 posts from marv saying this, but if you check marv's filter for talk about WoS and Foolishness on D2/N2, you see that WoS is townie now because of activity, and Foolishness is mafia mainly because of his refusal to be townie on WoS after WoS's, N2/D2. (2) marv drops his foolishness vote early D3 (we're 2 hours into D3 here) - On January 28 2014 10:11 marvellosity wrote: kita, the problem is that it's almost impossible to tell (especially with toad) from that whether he's a townie with a natural evolution (i agree, it feels that way) or if mafia decided they need to bus Fool at some point in the past and he's been carefully working his way up to it ever since. Second scenario requires one more assumption than the first. But in the larger picture it means a larger assumption that, like you say, something has gone horribly wrong. I think the sum of it is, we need to kill Fool today, so let's do it. He's easily the most suspicious. ##Vote: Foolishness (3) Within a couple minutes, Foolishness drops his big posts. In his Q and A, you see explanations for why he didn't write a big post on wave, When I saw your name appear in the thread, I was expecting a Nobel-Prize winning essay on why WaveOfShadow is mafia...but I don't see his name, what gives? Put simply, I don't think he's mafia and I don't want to lynch him. If I'm going to be brutally honest, I still have this nagging doubt in my mind that he's mafia but the evidence shows that that's not who the town should be lynching. He doesn't fit the bill. What do you have to say about *insert player here*'s reads this game (either on you or *insert player here*)? I think the evidence I've brought forth should explain a lot about who is reading who this game and why. I've been called out for giving shitty reasons on why Kita and/or Toad is mafia (with WoS thrown in there as well) rightfully so. You've completely done a 180 on us and changed up everything you've been thinking this game! I think you look like a desperate mafia pulling a last ditch attempt to survive a lynch! Now, he has posts later in D3 about why WoS is town, but for now, all we see is that he WAS very sure of scumWoS on D2, then changed his mind, presents WoS as town, has different suspects.Yes, this is a reasonable concern (though in my opinion I could just convince you all to lynch WoS if that was the case, but that's a meaningless argument). This is why I urge you all to check out my analysis above on the three players and clearing your mind when trying to figure out this game. I was definitely looking in all the wrong places the past two days and the pieces weren't fitting together. I think that if you look at what I've given you above and how I was able to deduce these things everything should start clicking. WHY ARE THESE THREE THINGS IMPORTANT? Because marv has a scumread on Foolishness. One of marv's major issue, if not THE major issue (the only one he talks about during D2/N2 basically), is Foolishness's read on WoS. Foolishness, at the start of D3, entirely swaps his read on WoS. He gives some reasoning for it, says he was wrong, drops WoS as a top scum suspect. Says it's prome + mystery 2nd scum. But marv, throughout D3, does not even reference this change in Foolishness's WoS read once. He doesn't note that Foolishness has changed his read and is now slightly townier. He doesn't say Foolishness is scummier for getting called out on his WoS read, getting caught, and then trying to change his mind. Marv entirely ignores that his biggest scumread and the guy he was voting just potentially undermined a big reason why marv was scummy on him, and really the only recent reason marv has given. I think this further shows why marv is mafia. If he is town, he has a LEGITIMATE scumread on Foolishness for doing stuff. Foolishness just did something that is SUPER relevant to that read. A townmarv incorporates that into his read, does SOMETHING with it, whether it makes Foolishness more townie or more scummy, it MATTERS. The fact that marv does not reference Foolishness's change in his WoS read AT ALL indicates that marv's read on Foolishness isn't real. He's got a reason for Foolishness to be scum, he's got a vote, he wants to mislynch Foolishness and it looks like it's going to happen, nothing more needed. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 04:54 WaveofShadow wrote: I want to be super sure, and also I dunno how much time I've got during night phase.Jesus Austin. You're the one putting so much effort in now and I'm sooo laaazzzyyy Can I call you town based on effort? ![]() + Show Spoiler + I know I actually can't 'cause it's you, Mr. PTP: Dr Who You can call me town based on effort, but you can't actually believe it. Except that you can, because if I put in a bunch of effort AND don't say that I'm mafia, then I'm town. Apart from trying to figure out how to beat Crossfire's super-mega-voltron role, I didn't put in tons of work into AFTER I'd friggin' claimed in that game. I had to work hard to convince gonzaw and Crossfire. PLUS I WAS TOTALLY RIGHT AND IF THEY'D LYNCHED ME THEY WOULD HAVE LOST AND HAD NO CHANCE OF WINNING SO IT WAS BETTER FOR THEM TO LYNCH ME. Even when I'm mafia, my effort is TO HELP TOWN. Also I'm not mafia. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Did YOUR opinion of Foolishness change when he swapped his stance on you? Either good or bad, did you adjust your read? Did it gives you pause about his scumminess? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Do you see what I'm getting at though? I can't really find anything in marv's filter during D2/N2 about why Foolishness is scum, except that he's really picking up on Foolishness's read on you. In fact, marv has a comment wondering why everyone is suddenly suspicious of Foolishness (after I keep bugging people not to call him 100% town), right as he's gotten OFF of foolishness and is now townier onto him (due to Foolishness posting about the votes and why Prome, who was scummy, now probably isn't) (**SIDE NOTE** Marv is scummy on Foolishness and only comes around after Foolishness posts his vote analysis on why prome is town. After that, Marv suddenly likes him again) But he does NOTHING on D3 with Foolishness's change in read. Something super relevant to his scumread on Foolishness happened, and he just doesn't seem to care. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 05:42 WaveofShadow wrote: I wrote stuff, you just didn't like that I should have found it earlier or been more convinced by it earlier, and you don't like that I responded hypothetically to gonzaw.You're absolutely certain that it's me and Toad who are town? I still haven't heard much on myself from like...anyone as to why I'm town. Maybe Foolishness. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 05:44 Promethelax wrote: Do you want to vote marv today?Certain enough. You could be scum with marv but you have played a good game and my gut has you as town for some things I can't quite put into words. In terms of things that I can pin point the way you talked about VE looks really genuine and damn silly from a scum perspective. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 05:53 marvellosity wrote: You have D1 anti-foolishness posts due to sandroba and generally feeling that Foolishness isn't active/townie/whatever.austin, you selectively forget half my posts. No bueno. But I promise you I had your filter open for a while this morning, and I'll bet if you start looking after Foolishness changes his mind on Promethelax, you're gonna find your suspicions on him are because of his WoS read. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 05:59 marvellosity wrote: I assume there was more to it. And yeah, other people thought he was scummy. But:There were plenty of other things that didn't mesh up. Such as Fool having the read on Wave, but conveniently disappearing from the thread right as Wave arrived posting walls. Obviously that was just Fool doing his thang, but in the context it looked horrendous. Wasn't only me that thought so either. Foolishness is doing A, and is mafia for that Foolishness stops doing A, starts doing -A Silence Is smellz. Whether you had other reasons or not. Whether you had other reasons you didn't put in thread or not. Whether other people found him scummy or not. You specifically pointed out a thing he was doing, he did the entire opposite of that thing, and you continued to vote him and call him scummy with absolutely no mention of him doing the opposite of a thing you'd called him out on. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
#barelyrelevantbutmani'mconvinced | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
| ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
#montpeliervermont | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 06:43 Promethelax wrote: qua?Are you doing enough research right now into my past to go to my house?! On February 01 2014 06:43 WaveofShadow wrote: I never said anywhere in there that 'because Prome and marv are talking it means one of them isn't scum.' I'm just saying trying to look at it from an unbiased POV is difficult given the game state and general opinion right now. Austin, can you actually go look at those pages for me and see if you can see anything that I don't? (I think it starts on 111 or so?) Toad you too. Marv, well, I wish I could ask you to do the same but I suppose it kind of defeats the purpose. Yeah | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If you want to push for mafia Toad, you've got prome kinda shading Toad as mafia with his four square question. There's a boatload of chatter between them over 3-4 pages. Foolishness, me. It's a LOT of back and forth if they're teammates. It's also right after Foolishness posts that Prome is mafia. Real talk possible. HOLY CRAP THE GAME IS RUINED NOW WE NEED BIG PLAYS is possible. It's a lot of interaction, which I see as a good thing. Will admit that. It doesn't have the same quality that I read into HF/gonzaw D1 interaction, where it looks like HF is really pushing Gonzaw, trying to figure out Gonzaw and trying to figure out Foolishness. Trying to see if all the chatter GOES anywhere. Playful bit on reading after getting home, oh i feel asleep, "does foolishness use meta?" lots of little questions that DON'T feel like they go anywhere. Who's the third scum? Are you concerned by austin? Would fool trust toad to be the LYLO guy? Did toad get left out of four square? It doesn't...neither is asking the other for anything very difficult, neither feels very worried about the other AT ALL. Entirely different from current thread, there are no shifty eyes betwixt them. Like, there's the playful bit with "oddly content", like 6-7 posts of that, into the #s. I dunno. Overall I think it points to NOT a marv/prome team? If it's orchestrated, it's done pretty well. If it were more hard hitting I'd be a lot more convinced, but so much is idle or just "hey, what do you think about spinach?" "i like spinach, what do you think about Jupiter?" Prome trying to get me to play conspiracy theory is also interesting if you want to push a prome/toad team. If fool and sandroba are scum together, who is the third. I refuse to answer toad, and i THINK he's pushing for me to say toad. If he's setting up "oh, foolishness is town so toad, the likeliest buddy of foolishness, looks better now" then...meh. He knows foolishness won't be town. And toad's alignment wouldn't be based on his interactions with foolishness alone. AND HE DOES NOT WANT TO TALK ABOUT MY CONSPIRACY THEORY WHERE MARV IS THE SNEAKY SNAKE THIRD MAFIA. HE CALLS IT INTERESTING, ASKS WHY MARV PUSHES SANDROBA/FOOLISHNESS ASSUMING TOWN PROME, AND THEN DOES NOTHING MORE. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On February 01 2014 06:46 Promethelax wrote: Nope. Just thought the word montpelier and I liked it with a hastag.Montpellier Vermont is about an hour from the house I was born in. "Hashtag Montpelier" just kind of rolls off the tongue in a neat way | ||
| ||