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Looking at you and CR and oats more tomorrow morning EST.
For anyone who's around overnight, including you atm since you're involved here, plox to comment on whether you agree with some of the folks I'm ruling out.
I still feel awk about pandain/you as last MCB because of the weird Palmar vote/unvote.
On October 05 2013 02:53 Pandain wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote Palmar
##Unvote
##Vote VA
There now he should be in the lead
This is just over 2 hours until lynch. I had JUST posted this:On October 05 2013 02:48 austinmcc wrote:
As best I can tell, it's 5/5/1 right now, FirmTofu/Palmar/VA.
FirmTofu hit 5 first.
CR is on VA, FT and VE still no votes? I think that's correct.
Either he's actually okay with a Palmar lynch, and is REALLY trying to stay on VA while getting Palmar in the lead, or he makes a relatively quick call (5 minutes between my post and his, without any posts from him in the couple minutes before to indicate he's 100% in thread), to put Palmar in the lead.
And again, it's like with Cheesecake. Pandain would essentially be putting Palmar in a better spot to get lynched (this was before all the modkill discussion), without trying to get any credit. He doesn't actually VOTE, he doesn't run around yelling about what he did (that's my job!). So he's got a weird Palmar-scum except I'd rather lynch other scum read (SUPER SCUMMY AND INDICATOR OF MCB)
BUT
BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT
He backed it up with that vote. He didn't just post "I'm okay with Palmar but rather VA," he backed it up by voting VA AND manipulating the vote so that Palmar got bumped to 6 and then back down.
Further lookin' and thoughts tomorrow, but seriously...that vote/unvote nonsense. That's someone actually trying to put Palmar in the lead.
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On October 07 2013 13:16 Pandain wrote:
What do you think about the argument that you could conceivably be on a scum-team with s0lstice and trying to save him? I think it's wrong.
I also think that if I were on a scumteam with solstice, I wouldn't be in here doing this. I would be in QT raging at him for claiming cop, because before he did that he COULD have just gone with "cheesecake is lying. look at how he pushed oats for a mislynch, because koshi greenchecked oats, cheesecake clearly mafia and just trying to get a misllynch."
Ask Cheesecake. ObviousOne decides to shoot ... debears in Aperture 3. We started spamming QT about how that was a bad idea. And I voted a scumbuddy when I could have saved him, just because I'm super paranoid and don't like saving scumbuddies when they lock themselves up with a weird claim/action.
You can all go read that QT if you'd like 
I wouldn't be trying to save solstice here, I'd be raging in QT and cutting bait here.
Also, I don't care if people argue that. Because I trust myself to find scum here outside of the cops. I trust myself to have already found scum and presented them to thread.
People can argue all they want that I'm scum with solstice. But if you lynch my target (currently still CR), you'll hit scum.
I don't care if people make that argument because I can back up my townie PM with a scum lynch. Same with pushing Palmar yesterday. Same with telling people not to lynch Ft or shiaopi.
Heck, I didn't actually get to push push it because I wasn't active and didn't have traction yet, but I got pooped on for suggesting a solstice lynch D2 over SP or FT. If we're buddies, I, at the very least, passed on an easy town/town lynch to suggest my scumbuddy for lynch.
No sense.
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On October 08 2013 00:19 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2013 20:10 Koshi wrote:
Hiro pro interesting guy. Do like. Need to follow up though. Otherwise will lynch.
 Like..... Maybe we should just lynch Koshi and #YOLO ExceptOn October 01 2013 00:58 s0Lstice wrote:
right well I'm here, taking me awhile to catch up. I'm about to say fuck it and just start playing from here on (with a helpful summary for pages 40-now from someone) but we'll see how much time I get tonight. I didn't want to say much without having a complete picture of the goings on but if that means I never start talking then it's no good.
from what I've read I don't like hiro, or Oats. Cheesecakes weird pressure vote on Oats bothered me as well.
hiro for his entrance into the thread and early passivity (agree with Palmar's points here).
Oats (at least up to where I stopped) hasn't started tunneling anyone yet, and is doing his 'drop a question into a bucket' thing he does as scum. I saw him engaging with the thread but had trouble figuring out what he was hoping to get from his questions and/or didn't see what he was doing with the answers he got.
There's some rumblings for FT. Nothing struck me as odd about him from what I read. I'll look closer tonight. On October 02 2013 01:09 s0Lstice wrote:
like I said earlier I did get up to page 40 or so. still don't like the FT lynch. didn't see anything in his filter that screamed scum to me.
from what I saw I would like to lynch hiro On October 02 2013 04:19 s0Lstice wrote:
@austin: tell me how I express guilt, specifically as it retains to an internet forum. you must know as it's important to your read on me.
##vote hiro protagonist
All my townreads for the most part are on FT and that makes me not want to sheep after all
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On October 08 2013 00:26 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 00:23 austinmcc wrote:On October 08 2013 00:19 VisceraEyes wrote:On September 27 2013 20:10 Koshi wrote:
Hiro pro interesting guy. Do like. Need to follow up though. Otherwise will lynch.
Like..... Maybe we should just lynch Koshi and #YOLO Except On October 01 2013 00:58 s0Lstice wrote:
right well I'm here, taking me awhile to catch up. I'm about to say fuck it and just start playing from here on (with a helpful summary for pages 40-now from someone) but we'll see how much time I get tonight. I didn't want to say much without having a complete picture of the goings on but if that means I never start talking then it's no good.
from what I've read I don't like hiro, or Oats. Cheesecakes weird pressure vote on Oats bothered me as well.
hiro for his entrance into the thread and early passivity (agree with Palmar's points here).
Oats (at least up to where I stopped) hasn't started tunneling anyone yet, and is doing his 'drop a question into a bucket' thing he does as scum. I saw him engaging with the thread but had trouble figuring out what he was hoping to get from his questions and/or didn't see what he was doing with the answers he got.
There's some rumblings for FT. Nothing struck me as odd about him from what I read. I'll look closer tonight. On October 02 2013 01:09 s0Lstice wrote:
like I said earlier I did get up to page 40 or so. still don't like the FT lynch. didn't see anything in his filter that screamed scum to me.
from what I saw I would like to lynch hiro On October 02 2013 04:19 s0Lstice wrote:
@austin: tell me how I express guilt, specifically as it retains to an internet forum. you must know as it's important to your read on me.
##vote hiro protagonist
All my townreads for the most part are on FT and that makes me not want to sheep after all Which do you think put more effective, convincing distance between the two players involved? Was I putting hiro in danger? Would ANYBODY think that he and I were linked after my early actions? Exactly. Both your stories have merit and oddities.
Yours is the weaker story, imo.
On October 08 2013 00:27 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 00:23 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 08 2013 00:12 Koshi wrote:On October 08 2013 00:09 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 08 2013 00:04 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 08 2013 00:02 VisceraEyes wrote:
Just look at it like this: if you remove the cop claims and me and yourself from the pool you have 7 people. If you believe that one of the cop claims is scum, that means that out of 7 people, 3 are scum.
3 scum and 4 townies. Out of Pandain, Oats, rayn, austin, Cheese, CR, VA, there are 4 townies and 3 scum. The odds are almost exactly the same as choosing between the cop claims. But better odds w/cop claims by a little. And if we're looking for MCB you think we won't find it in solstice? I'm not sure why you think that honestly. It's actually really simple. The MCB is alone now, and in order to win he's got to kill everyone on the other scumteam IN ADDITION to all the townies. I find it far more likely that the MCB would have used his KP to kill last night - he's got SO MANY people to kill before he can win, and using KP for anything BUT killing is only prolonging the game (which is bad for scum). Now, don't ask me why if s0L is a Baller, he used the Payphone. I really honestly don't know his motivations. Maybe he was hoping to reach out to the final Banger in an attempt to work together. Maybe the whole intention was to counterclaim cop (though I doubt this as it was so messy and came out of nowhere). But in spite of it not making much sense, I find it more likely than the last Banger using Payphone. Payphone is 0,5KP. He shot VE. Probably had to use Payphone or Molotov for 0,5. Gambled. Lost. ezpz. OK I see. It seems weird that he stated it as an absolute but I technically it was the first thought I had regarding this. My original theory is Solstice is MCB, used a KP on you and Payphone to try and YOLO the fuck out of everyone because sitting and waiting to lose sucks and he didn't have it in him to try and hide for 2-3 days. Especially if he thinks he was already found out by the other scumteam. I just don't see why that theory makes any less sense than Solstice being on ballers. The part I don't understand IF solstice were MCB is the claim itself.
He payphones, trying to hook up with the other scum team, sure, npnp.
But then he gets outed as sending cheesecake a message.
The FIRST thing he does is CLAIM COP. His very very very first response to being called out is the single thing that will 1000000% get him killed as mafia. He has no chance to win now. He dies if people don't trust his claim. He dies if Koshi ever flips. He is super duper dead. There is no wiggle room left, no hiding, he's out in the sun and there is no way he makes it til endgame.
If solstice were the MCB, he wouldn't ensure his death like that. He just goes "cc lying, big scum play." Then he forces the lynch between himself and cc (if we assume a similar 1 on 1 scenario), where he's fighting a dude that might well be scum and NOT the claimed cop. If he can get cc lynched, and especially if cc flips scum, TA DA.
(Putting aside that it doesn't make sense for scum cc on 3 man team to out scum solstice on 1 man team, leading to solstice death, leading to 1 team of KP tonight)
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On October 08 2013 00:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Guys you are looking it the wrong way.
We do not know what motivation Solstice had to contact Mr.CC. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that when he DID contact him, he HAD to claim cop because that was his only option.
Also he did not counter-claim Koshi in the first place, and let him run around "confirming" townies. That's all the evidence we need. He is mafia. He did NOT have to claim cop.
He had the option of saying CC was lying.
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On October 08 2013 00:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 00:44 austinmcc wrote:On October 08 2013 00:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Guys you are looking it the wrong way.
We do not know what motivation Solstice had to contact Mr.CC. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that when he DID contact him, he HAD to claim cop because that was his only option.
Also he did not counter-claim Koshi in the first place, and let him run around "confirming" townies. That's all the evidence we need. He is mafia. He did NOT have to claim cop. He had the option of saying CC was lying. Yes but if you fight against Mr.CC rather than Koshi, the cop is confirmed and so are the townies. Solstice the MCB doesn't care.
He's one man. He's all alone, like VE was with the bear earlier.
You're saying that solstice, as the last man on his scumteam, would go for the play where he puts suspicion on koshi's townies for a day BUT GETS 1000000% KILLED.
He absolutely loses if he goes for this play.
If he calls out cc, he fights against cc rather than koshi, has confirmed townies lying around, but he doesn't 100000% die.
If he's the one-man team, not 10000% dying is better than having a harder lategame.
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On October 08 2013 00:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 00:51 austinmcc wrote:On October 08 2013 00:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 08 2013 00:44 austinmcc wrote:On October 08 2013 00:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Guys you are looking it the wrong way.
We do not know what motivation Solstice had to contact Mr.CC. But it doesn't matter. What matters is that when he DID contact him, he HAD to claim cop because that was his only option.
Also he did not counter-claim Koshi in the first place, and let him run around "confirming" townies. That's all the evidence we need. He is mafia. He did NOT have to claim cop. He had the option of saying CC was lying. Yes but if you fight against Mr.CC rather than Koshi, the cop is confirmed and so are the townies. Solstice the MCB doesn't care. He's one man. He's all alone, like VE was with the bear earlier. You're saying that solstice, as the last man on his scumteam, would go for the play where he puts suspicion on koshi's townies for a day BUT GETS 1000000% KILLED. He absolutely loses if he goes for this play. If he calls out cc, he fights against cc rather than koshi, has confirmed townies lying around, but he doesn't 100000% die. If he's the one-man team, not 10000% dying is better than having a harder lategame. Solstice is from the 3 man team. Pandain is the last banger dude. I got burnt out last night, but in my head I still like pandain not-MCB, and CR probably MCB.
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VA is da mafias. I are not the mafias.
On October 08 2013 01:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 01:08 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright so then you and I are on the same page, at least regarding today/Solstice.
I seem to remember Vayne being on that page as well, though I'm slightly disconcerted with his fucking off for the day. Vayne is cool. He's been consistent the whole game. He writed good posts and his train of thought has been solid the whole game. He's pretty likely town. Bold is not true. If you think Koshi is cop, you need to look at N3 and the start of D4, before cop time.
Buncha brosephs calling oats mafia, oats probably mafia, likely mafia, etc. etc. If Koshi is cop and oats is town, oats is clearly being set up as a mislynch.
N3 ends, Koshi confirms oats. LOOK AT THE MOMENTS RIGHT AFTER THAT. Mafia was sitting pretty with an oats lynch, delicious delicious oats lynch. But now oats is town? UH OH. PLAN RUINED.
One of the newbie guides or ace quotes or things i'm making up in my head is that the worst thing for scum is when a plan gets derailed. What happens when the oats-mislynch plan is derailed?
- VA tries to poke holes in oats being town (couldn't he be scum and vested? no way you can know he's town for sure)
- VA tries to DEFEND his poking holes in oats being town (oats was CLEARLY a shot target (when koshi said he had no shots)
- Later, VA says he was the mislynch of choice for the day, not oats (misrepresenting/misinterpreting the thread, in a way that downplays how oats was being set up)
That's the single biggest instance where VA not just has a bad train of thought, but has a bad train of thought IN RESPONSE to the oats mislynch being asploded. And he tries to defend it even when it's indefensible. Town is delighted that a likely mislynch got avoided last night. Mafia is horrified. VA focuses on trying to downplay what town got out of the check.
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On October 08 2013 01:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 01:15 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 08 2013 01:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also Austin pretty much has to be mafia with Solstice. If Pandain is the last banger then CC is town, If Pandain is in team with them CC could be the last banger. I thought this too, sorta, but I don't think they necessarily need to be on the same team. Essentially If they are on same team, it's way more suspicious of Austin to be hardcore soft-defending solstice all day by trying to move the lynch. If different teams then he knows his method won't do anything, he can say whatever he wants, opposite scum still gets lynched and Austin gets an A for effort. That's pretty WIFOMy. Also Austin's defence and "let's not kill either of them" makes zero sense. It makes total sense if you're not entirely sure and you have stronger mafia reads elsewhere (or you want people to not tunnel).
The cop situation resolves itself overnight OR scum worries about cop powers AND we have them around for tomorrow's lynch with more information.
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On October 08 2013 01:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So if Vayne is town and thinks Koshi is the cop should he still be pushing Oats lynch? I don't even know what you are trying to say.. If Vayne is town and Koshi is the cop, he should be HAPPY that Koshi confirmed a dude that was gonna get lynched.
D4 = lynch oats
N3 = koshi confirms oats
D4 NOW = HOLY CRAP DON'T LYNCH A GUY THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN TOWN
That's a GOOD thing (for town).
Vayne is NOT happy that we avoided a mislynch. Vayne is hoping he can undermine the check. Vayne is misrepresenting how oats was gonna get got.
At the very least, Vayne should try and confirm there are no loopholes (paranoid, can be townie), but he shouldn't be pushing super hard to find them and arguing that the situation wasn't what it was.
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(And no, there's no guarantee we lynch oats without the check. But if you look at D3 reads, MOST people were scummy on him, and he was very much going to be in the discussion).
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On October 08 2013 01:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So Vayne as scum blames Koshi for confirming his mislynch target? How does that make sense? Like is Vayne in your opinion such a bad scumplayer? It's not whether VA is a good or bad scum player or anything. I don't care about that in this case right here.
Here's the thing. You say that doesn't make sense. But it's exactly what happened.
On October 06 2013 05:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
that is why that was a horrible shot koshi. I expected better tbh! On October 06 2013 05:48 VayneAuthority wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 05:47 austinmcc wrote:On October 06 2013 05:34 austinmcc wrote:On October 06 2013 05:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
that is why that was a horrible shot koshi. I expected better tbh! I'm sorry. Why was this a horrible shot? And what do you believe he should have done differently? I thought that the bulletproof vest made it so that cop couldn't tell the difference between town/mafia I misread it. and oats was a prime bulletproof target
He tells Koshi that Koshi took a "horrible shot." Because it's a horrible shot to confirm someone that town was gonna mislynch.
You can say VA is a better scum player than to say something like that, but the fact is, TOWNIES DON'T THINK IT'S A HORRIBLE THING TO CONFIRM A GUY THAT WAS GONNA GET MISLYNCHED.
People make mistakes. Scum partway slip sometimes, sometimes they get caught with a split-second scum thought. In my experience, it happens most often during last minute lynches/moments before uncertain lynches, and right after something big happens.
In this case, something big happens that was GOOD FOR TOWN. VA fights it, blames the cop (all of these assume Koshi cop) for averting a mislynch, and then continues to spew nonsense and make it seem like this isn't good/might not be 100%.
Fantastic scum players still make scummy posts. Fantastic scum players still get caught. I don't care if VA is the best scum in the world. What I care about is that the thought progression he shows at the start of today is NOT townie. It's the scum response to what happened. Whatever his mafia play or town play are, he actual posts and his reaction show that he has a scum mindset.
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On October 08 2013 01:56 VayneAuthority wrote:
thing is austin doesnt realize my motivation for that. it's not from scum, it's wow I was wrong about oats this is gay and no way i can be wrong! That would make sense if your initial reaction was, say, this:On October 06 2013 05:43 VayneAuthority wrote:
and that is pretty annoying if oats if town he isn't doing any crazy shit this game I thought oats was scummy, oats looking scummy, but man...I was wrong.
That's a TOWNIE post. That's a TOWNIE reaction, if you really thought oats was scummy. Man he looked bad, I need to go rework my reads.
But instead, your reaction is On October 06 2013 05:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
that is why that was a horrible shot koshi. I expected better tbh!
Not that you're angry about the shot, upset about the confirmation, 16 minutes BEFORE you go "well, sucks that I was wrong." After getting called out on it, you tried to fix your reaction. But your initial reaction was the scummy one, and NOT "oh man, can't believe I was wrong about oats."
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EBWOP: in last paragraph, not = note*
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On October 08 2013 02:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Nah Austin, you are wrong. Vayne misread the rules. As far as vests go, yes.
As far as oats being a good/bad shot, that's not a rules thing.
On October 08 2013 02:05 VayneAuthority wrote:
why every game the scums tunnel me scumaustinmcc has never tunneled you afaik.
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On October 08 2013 02:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's pretty fucking good!
Now we solve this game in next 26h. It would be good if you could come to the CORRECT solution though.
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On October 08 2013 02:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Austin wanna lynch Pandain instead of Sol? I'd rather lynch CR.
Last banger is CR/Pandain/WoS.
Most likely CR I believe.
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On October 08 2013 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why are Austin and Vayne so silent? Don't you guys have anything to say? Why? ARAM and also writing I post where I tell you that you can make SENSE with your pushes/reads but they can still be wrong. But I don't like the way it comes out, really, and it's not currently helpful to finding scum.
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On October 08 2013 02:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 02:28 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
This seems risky to negotiate with mafia. Especially considering he could be part of either team, we can't trust him. Show nested quote +On October 08 2013 02:28 austinmcc wrote:On October 08 2013 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why are Austin and Vayne so silent? Don't you guys have anything to say? Why? ARAM and also writing I post where I tell you that you can make SENSE with your pushes/reads but they can still be wrong. But I don't like the way it comes out, really, and it's not currently helpful to finding scum. You two, explain to me how is negotiating with Solstice harmful to the town? Negotiating never harmful. Following through on something POSSIBLY harmful, but who knows?
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EPT
