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On August 03 2013 05:07 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:06 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:04 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:59 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 04:55 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 04:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 04:46 FirmTofu wrote:
rayn, if you are town, then you need to stop attacking me and answer my questions properly. I am willing to give you a chance but you aren't even willing to consider the possibility that I am town.
Can we agree to a truce until I can get my bearings around how this new interaction with you and XRZ makes me feel about you? Your assumption is that i am mafia and XRZ is town. Do you really think mafia has a roleblocker in a game where they have nothing to roleblock as the only role for town would be a veteran? In addition to this, if we lynch exarezee and he some-fucking-how flips town, that clears: 1) Clarity because scum have a roleblocker, and roleblocking one of their own on N1 is beyond stupid. 2) Oats because he can´t be a godfather, and if he was mafia scum would not let me check him on N2. 3) Corazon because i have a green check on him. There is not a roleblocker + GF versus one cop, that´s impossible. Why can't Oats be GF? Why can't CJS be GF? If either of them are GF then scum should not have a roleblocker. If scum do not have a roleblocker then Clarity and XRZ lied about being roleblocked. So you are saying GF + Roleblocker would be unbalanced therefore it's impossible? Your whole argument hinges on setup speculation and implied balance? Yep. Then again you are saying that Rayn might not be Cop so town only has a Vet while scum has a roleblocker. Again, I would like to stress that all of these questions are asked with the assumption that rayn is town. I'm trying to see where you're coming from hz.
I do not understand why you have to stress the assumption that Rayn is town. Either Rayn is town or we have have a cop or doc lurking somewhere. Or the scum team is Rayn/Clarity/XRZ.
Rayn is town.
I am coming from a place where I only have limited information. I cannot say for sure what roles are in the game so I am making the best guess I can based on what information is available to town.
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On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is.
Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though.
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On August 03 2013 05:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Explain how it is even remotely possible that there are other powerroles alive?
Well we have had 3 cop claims so far. Why not make it 4? 
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On August 03 2013 05:16 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:13 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is. Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though. One last question. If there is a blue out there, not revealing his role, would it be in town's best interest to have him reveal? Consider all the possibilities. Hidden Doc/Cop/Vig/Vet Obviously, vig and vet are unlikely to be hidden, but I think a hidden doc or even a cop is still a possibility.
It could only be a doctor.
If it were a cop he would of claimed by now considering we have had 3 other cop claims. A vig would of shot by now and I am Vet.
We cannot be 100% certain that there is no doctor, but we might as well play as if there is no doctor. If they need to claim then they will.
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Doh, Rayn I just ensured your N3 death ;(
Tbh it was going to happen anyway.
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On August 03 2013 05:22 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:11 Koshi wrote:On August 02 2013 11:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 02 2013 10:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
ok so for XRZ to be scum, means that scum has no RB and clarity is scum too.
I dont think that scum has no rb.
Therefore Rayn must be scum. And for some reason didnt kill xrz. Possibly to push his lynch.
Oats. I really am a cop. XRZ, Clarity, FT. look at what post Clarity calls me out for. :DDDDDD Why is Clarity scum? Guys, why is Clarity scum in this trio? What post was it?
Clarity is only scum if there is no roleblocker. So we find the other two scum first, if neither of them flip roleblocker and if we still have a mislynch left we should probably just lynch Clarity (sorry!).
Oats was wrong in his scenario because he forgot that scum could of used the N2 roleblock on their own team (or not used it at all).
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On August 03 2013 05:23 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 05:18 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:16 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:13 hzflank wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:On August 03 2013 05:11 FirmTofu wrote:
Are we playing with the assumption that there are no more town power roles alive right now? Other than the claimed ones, that is. Yes, absolutely. If we have another power role then some things change. Not everything changes, though. One last question. If there is a blue out there, not revealing his role, would it be in town's best interest to have him reveal? Consider all the possibilities. Hidden Doc/Cop/Vig/Vet Obviously, vig and vet are unlikely to be hidden, but I think a hidden doc or even a cop is still a possibility. It could only be a doctor. If it were a cop he would of claimed by now considering we have had 3 other cop claims. A vig would of shot by now and I am Vet. We cannot be 100% certain that there is no doctor, but we might as well play as if there is no doctor. If they need to claim then they will. I am satisfied with that answer. As for XRZ, I can see where you are coming from. I am willing to lynch him on the grounds that his Day 1 was terrible, but I think rayn's case on XRZ hinges too much on setup speculation. Consider this. Mafia have 3 goons and a RBer. Couldn't we have 0 cops, 1 vet, 1 doc, rest VT. Wouldn't it still be balanced? I tried speculating setup in NWM and it worked out very poorly for me. I'm not going to make that mistake again. If we are lynching XRZ today, I will vote him because of a bad Day 1 and for information. Nothing more, nothing less.
It's possible, but it is unlikely. Also, answer me this:
VT-Exar gives out a guilty check on Malongo 30 mins before the deadline. What happens if Malongo flips green?
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Alright, I need to spend a couple of hours trying to work out how/why Exat is Town. I realize it is likely a pointless exercise but I really think we should go over it anyway. Filter grinding time 
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On August 03 2013 05:46 Stutters695 wrote:
Rayn quick question for you now that everything is out there. Haven't you claimed a PR before as VT? If so what was your mindset in doing it and why isn't it something XRZ would consider. I'm a little concerned that he would fess up to fake claiming after just getting a scum lynch if he was scum since he's almost confirmed cop if he plays it out, spoon feeds town reads through checks knowingwho is town.
If it wasn't you who fake claimed disregard that part but can you reason with me on why this is a good play for scum XRZ to make?
If Exar is town then it was not a good scum move, it was a desperate scum move. We need to figure out why before we can say that Exar is town.
Malongo was a goon and the least active player. He would be worth trading for another scum but not necessarily worth the risk of trading him when it also puts Exar at risk. Therefore I see two scenarios of why scum-Exar would do it.
Either:
Cora is GF. Exar sacced Mal to save Cora, thinking that if Cora flipped GF then town might deduce that their is no roleblocker and therefore Clarity would end up lynched (so this one assumes that Clarity is scum).
Or:
FT is Roleblocker. Exar sacced Mal to save FT knowing that if FT flipped RBer then Clarity would be confirmed town and that would leave scum in a situation where we had 1 confirmed town, 1 confirmed cop and 1 confirmed Vet.
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On August 03 2013 05:51 Koshi wrote:
1) RB on rayn
2) XRZ gives red check on me
3) Kill Vayne
= I get lynched 100% certain?
That and the fact that XRZ should never buss his own teammate if he is going to give up being cop so easily. arfffffffff
And after you flip green Exar gets lynched and then we have associations between both Exar and Mal to look at.
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EBWOP on that big post: If Exar is scum*
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On August 03 2013 06:13 Stutters695 wrote:
Hz: why does XRZ give up on the charade? He can ride that for town for days at the expense of sacrificing their RB to keep him "perma-blocked". The only way that plan falls flat is if Clarity flips scum and gives away that they don't have an RB. Saying he faked the check puts himself into major shit and if he flips scum it practically guarantees he bussed Mal to save Cora or FT(probably Cora) and scum is losing three members in four days. It doesn't make sense.
I agree that it does not fully make sense. Also, why did Exar claim cop instead of Cora or FT? Exar completely kept himself out of it.
The best I can come up with is a massive series of assumptions.
FT is RBer. FT had already claimed VT so could not claim cop. Scum thought that Vayne was doctor. Scum thought that Vayne would doc Rayn so Rayn would get his check off. If FT flipped roleblocker then we have a bunch of confirmed town and Rayn can get a check off while they killed doctor-Vayne. With so many confirmed town then Rayn would have a decent chance of hitting scum.
Even if FT avoided the lynch there was a good chance that Rayn would cop check FT (scum wanted to shoot doctor-Vayne), since Rayn was pushing FT hard on D2. By Exar claiming cop he could potentially discredit Rayn as well as temporarily saving FT.
Even then it would make more sense for scum to RB Rayn instead of Exar and for Exar to give us a green check on someone. The best I have is that they panicked when Vayne flipped VT instead of Doctor.
There are still gaping holes in all of this.
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But Rayn, you must agree that they should of roleblocked you while Exar gave us a green check (say, on someone like Stutters).
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Heck, Exar could of given us a geen check on Rayn ("I wanted to confirm that there were actually 2 cops in this game, guys").
Why did Exar roleblock himself?
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On August 03 2013 06:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
How do you justify a check on me when you have already said you think i am most likely town?
Okay, but he could of checked Oats or whetever. It's all just weird. If he was going to roleblock himself then he should not of un-claimed yet. He might of well of left it until he was caught out and lynched.
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On August 02 2013 08:55 IMCaptainJackSparrow wrote:
Alright, it's close enough to the deadline. I'll post some reads:
First of all, Rayn is scum because he resisted a Malongo lynch for so so so so long until it was obvious that his lynch target was not going to die. His cop claim is really sketch, especially with a Vayne check. Why would a cop check Vayne, and why would he claim cop just to get Vayne to vote for him? (He still hasn't answered this, he called out Vayne for bad town play yet he did not need to claim just to get Vayne to vote for FT. It doesn't make sense). He's just shitting up the thread with random-ass nonsense about how Oats is scum based solely on meta and how I'm scum by association with Oats. The logic is simply not there and it's obvious to me that he is just making cases to look like he is scumhunting.
Secondly, I want to look into Stutters some more. I'm still not convinced that he is town. His play until D2 was really fishy, and he dodged the setup speculation question that I gave him. He still worries me.
In the category of town reads, I'm only pretty secure on giving town reads to Oats (because he's not caring about the lynch or anything at all, what's new?), Clarity (because he has played a very focused game and is actively trying to solve it), and XRC (for being cop and getting Malongo lynched). The rest I'm still feeling null on, and if I don't die, I will work on splitting them up into town and scum.
Cora's last post before the day post.
Rayn is fake-cop scum. Clarity is town (scum have roleblocker). XRZ is cop. hzflank is null (make fake claim vet?).
I don't even need to tell you what I think about this.
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But I will anyway: looks like Cora is expecting there to be another blue role in the game (if I am fake-claiming).
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I've solved it...answer incoming
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Exar was asked by he chose to cop-check Oats.
On August 02 2013 10:10 exarezee wrote:
I'm back on the computer.
I can make a case against the others without a peek. This is assuming that the mafia did not have a roleblocker, (which I wish they didn't, because we could assume clarity is scum. I feel good about clarity being town now. I can now assume if someone else were roleblocked, they would have said something) I narrowed down my choice of peeks to justanothertownie, oats, or stutters. I don't have a good feel for their position. I decided to peek oats who was who rayn said he was going to peek.
One of the reasons that Exar chose to fake-cop check Oats was because he had a town read on Clarity after he (Exar) got roleblocked.
But Exar would have had to choose his fake-cop-check target before he got roleblocked.
Someone on the scum team noticed this and told Exar, so he had to withdraw his cop claim.
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EPT
