On July 14 2013 15:31 johnnywup wrote:This brings a dilemma however. If we don't lynch MG, then it's possible that scum still has 2 KP tonight, if the nuke is indeed a dud. If we mislynch it's triply bad. If we just lynch MG, okay, we lose 1 person. Of course we'll be trying to lynch scum but the possibility is troubling if we mess up. If we lynch someone else outside the situation, and it turns out to be a townie, then we lose 1 during day and 2 at night. Of course, if we lynch outside the situation and hits a scum we're in a GREAT position, we're almost done. There are 18 alive right now I believe (correct me if I miscounted) which means 14 town and 4 scum, at BEST (assuming no 3p for sake of argument--including 3p only makes it worse)
So as far as I can see there's the following possibilities:
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +
A: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST.
B: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
C: We lynch outside the situation, hit townie. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST
D: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG doesn't hit. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum, at BEST
E: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST
F: We lynch outside the situation, hit scum. Nuke on MG hits. He's townie. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
G. We lynch MG. He's scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST
H. We lynch MG. He's townie. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST
I: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 11 townies to 4 scum at BEST
J: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 10 townies to 4 scum at BEST
K: We lynch Stutters. He's town. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
L: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke doesn't land. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 3 scum at BEST
M: We lynch Stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is scum. On day 4, it's 13 townies to 2 scum at BEST
N: We lynch stutters. He's scum. Nuke lands. MG is town. On day 4, it's 12 townies to 3 scum at BEST
(assuming if we hit scum today we get rid of 1 KP, there is 5 total scum, and the rest are townie, and if we lynch MG we don't know whether or not the nuke would hit)
Averaging the outcomes (if outcomes are equal---which they are obviously not, but just something to consider)
Lynching outside the situation or lynching stutters: 11.833333 townies on day 4 with 3.16666 scum
Lynching MG: 12 townies on day 4, 3.5 scum
Lynching outside the situation therefore has more townies/scum on average, and is probably a better pick than lynching MG. Although I included lynching stutters as an option I don't think it's a good idea at all because it lends itself to REALLY bad situations imo.
However I haven't taken into account that if the nuke doesn't hit then Stutters is probably town and if it does hit he's probably scum. Intuition tells me that lynching outside of the situation lends to better results if you take that into account.
But back to the dilemma. Best possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit scum, nuke lands, MG flips scum.
Worst possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke lands, MG flips town.
Most likely scenario IMO (sorry town but after 2 mislynches I have less faith): We lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke may or may not land. The problem I have is that if the nuke doesn't land we lose 3 townies for nothing in this situation, when we could have lynched a (relatively) confirmed scum. On the other hand, if we do decide to lynch MG, we get no information on Stutters from this at all. So I'm really torn.
What does everyone else think?
EPT
