EPTRoulette Mini Mafia - Page 70
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
| ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
prplhz sentinel vivax kitaman mkfuba also didn't most if not all of fuba's towncred come from Ace attributing the rayne lynch to him? | ||
|
prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
| ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12971 Posts
Vivax (3): Stutters695, VayneAuthority, mkfuba07, prplhz (1): Vivax [UoN]Sentinel (2): prplhz, jaybrundage VayneAuthority (1): [UoN]Sentinel Not Voting (3): WaveofShadow, kitaman27, layabout Deadline is in ~23 hours, at 23:00 GMT (+00:00) | ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On June 14 2013 08:59 prplhz wrote: lay why isn't jay on your list at all after my argument with jay and his greencheck on me i thought he would be more likely town than the people on that list. | ||
|
jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
On June 14 2013 08:23 layabout wrote: lynchlist: prplhz sentinel vivax kitaman mkfuba also didn't most if not all of fuba's towncred come from Ace attributing the rayne lynch to him? Fuba has been laying low just relaxing in the town cred that Ace (a scum mind you) gave him. I can see him being scum his contribution is close to replacement material. | ||
|
VayneAuthority
United States8983 Posts
| ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On June 14 2013 09:40 jaybrundage wrote: Incorrect.Fuba has been laying low just relaxing in the town cred that Ace (a scum mind you) gave him. I can see him being scum his contribution is close to replacement material. My own actions gave me town cred, or you wouldn't have accepted it in the first place. My own actions have also taken some of it away. Ace had nothing to do with my contributions to the rayn lynch other than announcing me as "confirmed town" afterwards, something that I would have honestly assumed was going through most peoples' heads at that point. It's an easy thing to do as scum to not only appear to be giving the game thought, but also to cast shadows on someone in the future. Back to the game, I'm not so sure about vivax anymore. Sentinel remains the most likely to flip scum based on play alone, imo. A vivax and sentinel scumteam makes sense to me going off of night actions, but vivax's play D1 makes me feel less confident about scum vivax, and particularly that pair together. prplhz seems considerably more likely, but I'm only on page 29 at the moment. To explain my thoughts last night: The most recent claims made me really suspicious about vivax, because he certainly appeared reluctant to post his role and the results of his check. Not only how long it took for him to post in the first place, but that neither he nor sentinel had posted in the thread at all at the time. On top of that, his whole "guess who and what" game reeked of fishing for information. My thoughts were that if these two were scum together, then they were trying to decide who should claim the role, who they should claim they checked, and what the results should be. This isn't something scum can do in advance. They need to know who the power roles are so they know who they can fake-check and still be safe. The fact that the end result was a green check on sentinel, the *only* person that scum vivax could trust to not be a power role, compounded these suspicions. Then I considered that vivax was roleblocked one night with a missing NK, and then sentinel was roleblocked the next night with a missing NK, and it spiraled out from there. It also makes sense why vivax would have had one KP N2, and Sentinel would have the KP N3. All of these things fit together so perfectly to me. It still feels instinctively right... But it also somewhat ignores the possibility of WoS or kita being the NK targets during those nights. Naturally, both of them were potential NK targets, or I wouldn't have protected kita last night. But I also feel like with that scumteam, they would go for "sure thing" NKs, not ones that could potentially be protected. Essentially, I feel that it makes more sense to believe that scum was roleblocked (assuming the blocker is trustworthy and the blockee was suspicious) than to trust that the doctor picked the right scum target that night. In any case, I think I'm caught in some light circular logic when it comes to this last paragraph, but it does fit within the scenario I've stated above. All of that being said... based on play alone (as of my reread through page 29, as well as my previous feelings regarding these players), I'd rather lynch sentinel>prplhz>vivax. This, combined with my claim theory, puts sentinel as my preferred lynch today. ##Unvote ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Either Vivax is lying about his check, Sent is town, or there 17% chance that he rolled godfather. In each scenario, it makes more sense to lynch someone else first. Between Vivax and prpl, I think Vivax is more likely to flip mafia. ##Vote Vivax | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
| ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
On June 14 2013 21:26 kitaman27 wrote: I'm not seeing how it makes sense to lynch Sent first. Either Vivax is lying about his check, Sent is town, or there 17% chance that he rolled godfather. In each scenario, it makes more sense to lynch someone else first. Between Vivax and prpl, I think Vivax is more likely to flip mafia. ##Vote Vivax Is Vivax good enough at scum to have played the way he did? | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
| ||
|
Vivax
22393 Posts
On June 13 2013 21:12 prplhz wrote: Well the strongest part of my Vivax scum read is actually how he acted around the raynpelikoneet lynch. Vivax was the 4th vote for raynpelikoneet. At this time the thread was clearly turning against raynpelikoneet because the last couple of votes cast were all on raynpelikoneet. Not just this but the votes (by WaveofShadow and mkfuba07) were accompanied by analysis (and I had complimented WaveofShadow's analysis). Vivax' vote for raynpelikoneet seems rather fake, "All aboard the wagon of justice" but no analysis or anything, it's just a vote (but formatted like it's actually something else, contrast Stutters695's vote which is also just a vote and also looks like what it is). Then VayneAuthority makes a silly vote and Vivax notices this, however he does not react on it in any other way than pointing it out. Then WaveofShadow points out the exact same thing and only then does Vivax find the courage to vote for VayneAuthority. The town Vivax I remember from other games doesn't hesitate to vote for people, he just does whatever the hell he wants all the time but this is a lot more restrained. Then after that he moves his vote back on raynpelikoneet: He pretty much says "If you're town then you look scum" and then he moves his vote away again. This all looks weird and restrained and like Vivax is looking for opportunities rather than looking for scum. The rigged poll was also really weird. That said I believe that he really has exams and this considered he's actually been putting in a decent amount of effort. I also don't think that Vivax and [UoN]Sentinel can be scum together (simply because of this post so I'm going to look into [UoN]Sentinel now). Clarifications: Trying to infer how and how often I use my votes in other games is awful reasoning. I have been adopting all kinds of styles. There have been games where my vote wandered around a lot (see British mafia II), and games where I barely voted if not just to lynch. Aside from that, you are doing two things in this post. You accuse me first of voting Rayn without reasoning, then not voting Vayne when I noticed something that looks suspicious. But most importantly, you accuse me of voting for Rayn without reason. While I didn't write a full blown case on him, I voiced the reason of my suspicion here before dropping the vote, being that he rather preferred shit-slinging at multiple people rather than his scumrad: On June 06 2013 01:53 Vivax wrote: @ Rayn If you're so sure about WoS being scum, what are you trying to achieve by claiming you want to kill ace and writing that bit about layabout? After my vote, Vayne comes in to vote for WoS, no reasons given. I post the "?", then drop my vote, and he replies with saying that he has a town-gutread on Rayn and that WoS is scummy, but when contrasted, he votes fuba and says that it's his real scumread. Vayne's play didn't seem to make any sense, and frankly I might have lynched him rather than Rayn at the time, but it was not possible. What I meant with bad blood is that he'd be bad, not scummy. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ As for today's lynch, I don't get why prplhz and jay are voting for Sentinel. If they think I'm town then they must also believe my check. Currently I find it hard to believe that scum prplhz would not keep going for my lynch, or argue against it, unless he's faking it really good. The only viable lynch for today is probably stutters, but there's one thing that bugs me and it's this, and I'd like to know if others think that it might have been a scum interaction: On June 05 2013 04:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sup dudes. I want to lynch stutters or zephird. ##Vote: Stutters because the case on prpl is bad. On June 05 2013 04:29 Stutters695 wrote: L O FUCKING L Try reading it and providing an actual reason if you disagree. | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 10 2013 05:39 Ace wrote: Stutters if you're still around I've got a question for you On June 10 2013 05:57 Ace wrote: Aww I'll take that as a compliment. Although I'd like you to point what is so un-Town like about me this game. So here's my question. Imagine you get cop night 1 this game. Your top scum read comes back with a red check. You are under no pressure of getting lynched. Would you claim? In essence tell me what you would have done differently than I did because this isn't making sense to me. Do you think that Ace is trying to convince his own scum buddy to do something? | ||
|
Vivax
22393 Posts
| ||
|
Vivax
22393 Posts
On June 15 2013 00:32 kitaman27 wrote: At the same time, we have this interaction from Ace: Do you think that Ace is trying to convince his own scum buddy to do something? At first glance it looks good for stutters cause ace is being inquisitive with him and I see that as unlikely between sbuddies, but what matters more is the answer: On June 10 2013 07:32 Stutters695 wrote: I'll give you what I see non-town tomorrow during the day, too busy right now to quote/explain my concerns. I would have done the same thing if I was town. However if I was scum and rolled cop n1 I would also probably do the same thing and fake the check then talk my way out of the mislynch. I'll talk more about it later, gotta go though. That he doesn't deliver town points doesn't really matter, he could also have been lazy and ace was dead anyway. The answer regarding ace's "what if" however is in contrast to an earlier statement: On June 08 2013 08:43 Stutters695 wrote: Well it's one of my main points in favoring an oats lynch. That and the fact that scum Ace should be wise enough to realize that a 2-1 trade isn't in scums favor when we still haven't mislynched. I really can't read oats though and that worries me. Stutters gave ace leeway cause he said he wouldn't pull that stunt as scum, but afterwards, when ace was doomed, he said he could also see it coming from scum. | ||
|
mkfuba07
United States1151 Posts
On June 08 2013 04:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: ##unvote ##vote: VayneAuthority This vote makes the most sense for me. Oats might be miller and Ace might be cop. Who knows. But Vayne is definitely scum. This vote makes the most sense for me. Was going through the thread (on page 43 currently) and this caught my eye. The bolded strikes me as really scummy. As town, you're considering multiple scenarios. You're not considering whether Ace is cop because to town Ace was cop. The entire bolded portion is from a scum perspective. He only mentions oats being town and getting miller, and he only considers whether Ace is cop (a possibility that should only be considered by scum, since they can pretty much trade roles around). I am really, really comfortable with my vote where it is. I'm not sure which of vivax or prplhz would flip scum, but sentinel is pretty much confirmed for me. | ||
|
Stutters695
2610 Posts
| ||
|
[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On June 15 2013 02:28 mkfuba07 wrote: Was going through the thread (on page 43 currently) and this caught my eye. The bolded strikes me as really scummy. As town, you're considering multiple scenarios. You're not considering whether Ace is cop because to town Ace was cop. The entire bolded portion is from a scum perspective. He only mentions oats being town and getting miller, and he only considers whether Ace is cop (a possibility that should only be considered by scum, since they can pretty much trade roles around). I am really, really comfortable with my vote where it is. I'm not sure which of vivax or prplhz would flip scum, but sentinel is pretty much confirmed for me. I considered both, which is why, instead of voting for Ace or Oats depending on who I thought was more scummy, I decided to go with my primary scumread of Vayne. | ||
|
Vivax
22393 Posts
On June 15 2013 02:34 Stutters695 wrote: Lynch vivax first. If he flips scum we know his claim is worthless and sent is probably scum. If he's town then we're looking at the odds of him getting gf compared to just scummy town play. Which means that even after I flip town you have an out to still lynch Sentinel, hence your reasoning for lynching me is flimsy since it doesn't solve a damn thing. Instead of doing analysis you prefer to give reasoning that doesn't lead anywhere. You never gave any reasons for voting for me. That no one picks up on that is outrageous. I asked you to deliver any reason at the start of the day and you did nothing. All you are doing is following thread sentiment. | ||
| ||
