Roulette Mini Mafia - Page 68

On June 06 2013 02:21 Vivax wrote:
This dude is even a better lynch

##Unvote
##Vote Vayne

On June 06 2013 03:28 Vivax wrote:
If you're town the site you come from breeds really bad blood.

##Unvote
##Vote Rayn

Can you give me an opinion on Rayn's last post?

On June 08 2013 01:18 Vivax wrote:
My analysis of Sentinel's play and why he is most likely town:





At first glance this post looked really scummy for the reasons he used to switch to ace, but it provides valuable information.
Sentinel is basing all his reasoning on two other people being scum, while having Oats as scummy as well (I disagree with the notion but it's probably town-motivated)

Now, imagine Oats is scum and Sentinel too. That doesn't really fit, right? Sentinel has been pushing Oats throughout D1, then he added Vayne and prplhz as his scumreads, and ace revealed the cop check, and Sentinel thinks "Oh well two scummers are on another scummers' wagon so ace is scum", and Oats can't be scum.

What has been going on here? These are the explanations:

1: Sentinel is scum, Oats is miller and ace is cop. Sentinel lynches Ace and still can lynch Oats afterwards. (improbable)
2: Sentinel is scum, Oats is standard town and ace is scum. Sentinel busses ace over his scumread for maximum town cred cause he knows that whatever happens, ace will die after Oats. (improbable, he has been pushing Oats all the time before)
3: Sentinel is town and genuinely thinks that Oats can't be scum cause two other scum reads vote for him, discarding the possibility that they know that Oats will die sooner or later. (probable)

That means that, in case of an Oats red flip, Sentinel is town. And in case of an Ace red flip, he's also town, simply cause I don't see him going for an ace bus when all he has been doing so far in the game would have allowed him to keep pushing Oats instead of ace.

If Oats was miller, then the reasoning is obviously useless, but I guess we have to gamble here.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

As for who to choose today, Ace was in no danger of getting lynched any time soon, and Oats seems like a likely target for a check for his strange D1 tunnel on Ace. I've never played against scum-Ace, but I doubt he would be so stupid to throw away his life with a fake check, hoping that town believes Oats was miller last night.

Oats is now clearly putting up a fight and also delivering reads on other people now that he's at danger of getting lynched, that's only logic cause scum has to defend themselves since they lost Rayn or they will lose valuable KP after that awful start.

If you still think that Oats could be town, go read what Zephir wrote about him in his analysis post before dying:

On June 08 2013 06:13 Vivax wrote:
I don't get why you people are even discussing Sentinel for lynch. My post lays out already that he is most likely town, I'll explain it like you're 5 year old:

a) He was pushing Oats all along → Unlikely scum with Oats
b) He switched to Ace cause two of his scumreads voted Oats → Unlikely scum with ace (and I don't think that scum would be willing to trade cred for a NK)

Unless ace and Oats are both town, Sentinel isn't scum, barring any powerplay where he plays exactly the opposite of how he should.

We should keep it as simple as possible and lynch Oats, and if Oats flips town we lynch ace, if Oats was miller then we gambled and lost.



Layabout can you lay out the reasons for why you think he's town?

On June 13 2013 22:40 kitaman27 wrote:
What do you think about Sent's post where he infers that he doesn't know Ace is the veteran? Feigning ignorance?