EPTThis is why people don't like discussing policy or meta. As soon as you mark down exactly how the townie should be posting, you'll never catch any mafia because they'll all be posting that way.
Newbie Mafia XL - Page 2
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
This is why people don't like discussing policy or meta. As soon as you mark down exactly how the townie should be posting, you'll never catch any mafia because they'll all be posting that way. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 05 2013 09:45 Rainbows wrote: Keep in mind the following question isn't policy-based. Let's say we have this one guy, super emotional, yelling at people, voting all over the place. Call him guy A. Guy B is cool, suave, making decent points here and there, voting is in line with his thinking. Guy C is hardcore lurking are barely here, but won't get modkilled because he votes. Guy D is kinda wimpy, and sheeps cases but is also hard to read. Who do we lynch? You say this isn't policy in the post, but that's exactly what you're asking everyone to tell you. I was really starting to warm up to you until this temper tantrum. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
Otherwise, actually start playing the game again. | ||
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Moloch
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Moloch
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If you go through his entire post history, he only ever asks people questions and tries to get people to suspect Rainbows. He hasn't once given his opinion on anyone else. He's either scum who was trying to keep the train rolling on Rainbows, or a townie who has contributed nearly nothing. As far as first day lynch chances go, I think this is a pretty good option. ##Vote: jampidampi | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
##Vote: jampidampi | ||
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Moloch
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Moloch
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On April 07 2013 04:39 Obzy wrote: @Saraf; That really is a good point that I missed too though lol - Even if it was fish and not me, I hadn't thought about that. Yeah, the real vigi would just shoot Rain, if rain was able to be counterclaimed. + Show Spoiler + Although maybe he would counterclaim him if it looked like Rain wasn't going to be lynched and he wanted to use his shot somewhere else so really it's not entirely solid. A good point, though. ^^; If Rainbow did fakeclaim, I think the vigi counterclaiming at this point would be quite stupid. If it looks like Rain isn't going to by lynched and someone counterclaims, we might end up lynching the counterclaimer instead (or the Mafia could hit him tonight). Whereas, if he just waits and killed Rainbow at night, then claims tomorrow, we know we can trust him then and, since he only gets one kill per game, it makes the scum decide whether to hit the guy who is effectively green now, or to try to find a blue for night two. Either way, if Rainbow is alive tomorrow, we can be certain he's telling the truth. Unless, I guess, the actual vigi doesn't do anything, but I can't see any possibility where the real vigi not killing rainbow is beneficial to the town. Another possibility (if Rainbows is lying) is the real vigi hitting him tonight, and then not claiming tomorrow. That would be a bad move, in my opinion. Follow my logic here It is given that the scum will kill one townie per night (barring any Doctor getting lucky) The scum want to hit blues for obvious reasons Once the vigi has hit someone, he is essentially the same as a couch potato The vigi should claim after he's hit someone to tempt the scum into hitting him instead of going for a blue Make sense? I guess the point of this is to convince people still voting for Rainbows that the best course of action is to not lynch him today. (and to give the vigi ideas if rainbows is lying) | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 07 2013 04:49 jampidampi wrote: Is there anything aside from my case/tunnel on Rainbows that makes me scummy? The thing I don't like about you is that every single opinion you've given so far this game has been about Rainbows. You have barely even mentioned anyone other name. You've mentioned several times how you want to get reads on people, and you ask generic questions, but never give an opinion on anything. So, to answer your question, it's more of what you haven't done than what you have done. JJD is in the same boat, but he has a much smaller sample size of posts to work with than you do. It's possible all of his were just context sensitive, so we'll have to see what he says when he posts again. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 07 2013 05:10 jampidampi wrote: Moloch, your forgetting the possibility that isn't a vigilante in the game. That's possible? Well, then. I'm going to have to rethink this. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 07 2013 06:58 Smancer wrote: Last post before he leaves makes me think he is scum. Not really posting a good defense. Not trying to convince anyone of his scum read. Maybe that is just his playstyle, but I disagree with it. If you are town, and you had a spotlight on you to be lynched, isn't the best thing to do to build your case against who you think is scum? I would defend myself politely and then take the time to pile all the evidence I could against someone who I thought was town. You didn't do any of that. I agree that it is really weird that he hasn't freaked out a bit more. I think you're wrong with "If you are town... who you think is scum?" because that would be the best course of action whether you're town or scum. I'm considering changing my vote to JJD because of lack of panic (I was debating between jampi and JJD when I first voted for jampi, so this just tips the scale a bit). On April 07 2013 06:58 Smancer wrote: In fact in this last post all you did was drive more confusion by pointing the finger at two people instead of narrowing it down to just one. I think he's using those as examples of why you shouldn't vote for him, rather than why you should vote for Rainbows or JJD. As in, "it's silly to vote Rainbows because he made a bad case, so don't vote for me because I made a bad case." I'm pretty sure that's what he's trying to say there. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 07 2013 19:05 Warent wrote: What bothers me is the heavy focus on how things are being presented instead of looking at the content. These questions from Jampi (Sarafs who brought them up first). Did anyone even try to answer them? So, Smancer, Fishgle, Moloch, care to honour JarJars wish and provide an answer to these questions? On April 07 2013 23:19 TheRavensName wrote: You've had some time to relook at Rainbow's blue claim as well as the lynch, do you have any thoughts or feelings you would like to share sense you were one of the ones who did vote for him? I'll do my best to answer both of these. I didn't particularly want to lynch JJD because, while he exhibited some of the same signs as jampi early-game (only ever talking about one person and never giving their own opinions on anything else), there wasn't nearly as many posts to go on. I realized that he might be scum lurking, but I felt there was a better chance he was just busy than he was lurking with malicious intent. As far as comparing him to Rainbows, the only thing the two of them have in common is that they each made a bad case. Overall, I felt the chance of the entire Rainbows ragequitting being legitimate was higher than being completely faked. While I've been thinking about it post-fact, I've been trying to think about Rainbows' move from a scum perspective. What would it gain them? - It gained them a non-Rainbows lynch. At the time of the explosion, I believe Rainbows was the one on track to being lynched. - It spread a lot of discord. Both of these things are obviously what they want short-term - especially if Rainbows actually is scum. BUT At the time of his declaration, they would have no way of knowing whether there's a real vigi. If there is, it's quite obvious the best thing for him to do is take out Rainbows - something the scum have no way of preventing unless they convince the doctor to protect him - which would result in good discussion and make people's alliance's easier to read. I'm going to wait until tomorrow before I read too much into anything. The scum hitting someone will give us another confirmed townie, so that will change almost every read we can make at the moment. | ||
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Moloch
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I'll make sure I'm back here at least a few hours before deadline tomorrow to keep things going. | ||
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Moloch
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After actual counting, there were four people (me, jampi, ravens, and fishgle) who were voting for him at the time of him claiming. After he claimed, this is the timeline. Rainbows jampi->ravens Me unvote Smancer Kirby-> jampi Obzy ravens ->jampi Fishgle rainbows->jampi Me ->jampi Saraf -> jjd Kirby -> jjd Jampi rainbows->jjd I know it's pretty useless information now, but it's the information I compiled when I thought I was actually on to something. Oh, and I'm not sure what to think about the Saraf lynch. I don't think they'd be as obvious as to hit someone who voted for scum, but it also seems like it would be a good idea to vote for someone that's onto them. Sorry again for not being here for the past couple days, I know it makes the game less fun for everybody else. I'll do better for the next while. | ||
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Moloch
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Once rainbows has all but rage quit. Then he takes his vote off of him. WTF? I thought it was pretty clear that I believed Rainbows' claim. Rather, I thought there was enough credibility to it to wait and see what happens - which is what thispost of mine is about. Why would I not take my vote off him? If I had kept my vote on Rainbows, we would have most likely had a three way tie between Rainbows, jampi, and JJD. Rainbows got the three votes first, so Rainbows would have been lynched. IF I were scum, wouldn't killing the vig have been the best course of action? He doesn't build a case agains jampi like the three others of us that voted. He just agrees and votes. So, once three people have made cases against someone, you're saying every single person that agrees has to create their own, separate case? Furthermore he makes a post and then immediately changes the subject to JarJar. At the point I changed the subject to JJD, is there anyone in the game who didn't want to hear from him? He was a person of interest if for no other reason than he had three votes. I really don't see how you can realistically suspect me for agreeing with the three best-made cases where my inaction would have resulted in a vigi lynch. As far as my post last night, it sucked. I said in it that I made a mistake and that rendered everything I did wrong, so I figured I'd share what I could that was still useful. This is what I had in my word file last night when I realized I counted votes wrong. It was 1am once I finally did get my post up, and I had class at 8:30 this morning. If you want to say me caring about school isn't town-friendly, there's nothing I can argue there. + Show Spoiler + Smancer, obzy, and fishgle all voted for jampi on the same page Saraf, Kirby, jampi on jjd Jjd was a lurker TheRavensname (1) Rainbows Rainbows (2) Warent, TheRavensName Smancer (0) Saraf (0) jrkirby (2) JarJarDrinks, nobodywonder jampidampi (4) Smancer, Obzy, Fishgle, Moloch JarJarDrinks (3) Saraf, jrkirby, jampidampi Obzy: The problem is that Moloch, Kirby, nobodywonder, Jarjar, and Fish aren't posting (or at least - not enough). Ravens and Warent are posting and I'm getting scum vibes, but they could just be _relatively_ scummy compared to Rain and Smancer. To further identify if they are actually scum, I would like to be able to continue gathering thoughts on the other five. TheRavensname (1) Rainbows, Rainbows, Obzy, Rainbows Rainbows (2) Smancer, Moloch, Fishgle, jrkirby, Warent, TheRavensName, jampidampi Smancer (0) Rainbows, Rainbows Saraf (0) Rainbows jrkirby (2) JarJarDrinks, Smancer, nobodywonder jampidampi (4) Rainbows, Smancer, Obzy, Fishgle, Moloch JarJarDrinks (3) Saraf, jrkirby, jampidampi Note Voting: Noone Jampi, ravens, me and fishgle TheRavensname (0) Rainbows Obzy Rainbows (3) Smancer, Moloch, , jrkirby, Warent TheRavensName jampidampi Smancer (0) Rainbows, Rainbows Saraf (1) Rainbows jrkirby (3) JarJarDrinks, Smancer, nobodywonder Note Voting:, Saraf, , , jrkirby Rainbows is currently set to be lynched Rainbows (3), Moloch, Fishgle, , Warent Okay, so, the biggest thing that everyone is forgetting is that before Rainbows claimed vigi, SIX people were voting for him, and he was obviously going to get lynched. It’s been pointed out a couple times (including by myself) that it would be too risky for scum to fake reveal that way since they would probably get killed by the real vigi. The risk would be more worthwhile if it’s a given that you’re going to die if you don’t take the risk. That said, the people voting for him (6/11 people excluding rainbows) would all have to be all townies. It is possible that scum voted for one of their own to try to blend in, but if they had, they could have either avoided the situation entirely by bailing, or keep their votes on him, let him get lynched and be nearly confirmed townies. Overall, I feel it is highly unlikely half the players in the game would have their votes on a player without the scum being involved, Oh, the six players were Smancer, Me, jrkirby, Warent, TheRavensName, and jampidampi. As soon as he claimed, I unvoted, Rainbows jampi->ravens Me unvote Smancer Kirby-> jampi Obzy ravens ->jampi Fishgle rainbows->jampi Me ->jampi Saraf -> jjd Kirby -> jjd Jampi rainbows->jjd | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 04:35 Obzy wrote: Moloch, had you posted that word file yesterday, I would've been quite a bit less worried, given that it has actual thoughts and analysis instead of just a summary list lol. I just didn't want to clog the thread up with useless information and hoped just giving the information that wasn't completely useless would be helpful in some way. On April 10 2013 04:35 Obzy wrote: What do you think of the case that has just been posted on Kirby? Also, how do you respond to the other cases against you, do you have any current scumreads, and do you agree with me that nw has completely picked up his game and is likely town? I'll look at those right now. If I remember correctly from my first readthrough, all the other cases on me were basically Smancer's argument rehashed. (I'll doublecheck that) I completely agree that nw has picked up his game, and I'll try to form an opinion on his orientation as I read through the thread again. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: jrkirby is scum. lynch him. There are many suspicious, I will guide you through the exhibits of scumminess first, the sudden town read. this is, by itself, not incriminating, but provides a very important contrast to his later quotes and actions. considering that jamp actually gets lynched, jrkirby does set himself up to look good. this is weird because, in contrast this correct single town read, all of jrkirby's other posts seem to insinuate that he doesnt know what he is doing. here are some examples: herp derp, you were absolutely correct on jamp as a bad town. why cant you find other bad town or scum. then. you easily somehow saw the difference when everyone else didn't and dun goofed. I really like your analysis in this part. Being completely sure of anyone's orientation on the first day is suspicious, since the only things you have to go on are how people have been interacting with other unknown people. But, that being said, Kirby also changes his opinion of jampi from mystery scum read to well-meaning, but incompetent townie. Says he's suspicious of jampi: April 6, 7:36 (and at 8:54, and 11:26 [specifies he wouldn't vote on a hunch here]) Rainbows vote for jampi: April 6 15:21 Smancer votes jampi: April 6 21:40 Obzy votes: April 7 2:44 Fishgle votes: April 7 2:49 I vote: April 7 4:04 Kirby recants his suspicion of jampi: April 7 4:32 Kirby claims jampi is town: April 7 7:34 (note: I didn't mark down unvotes) Yes, Kirby says his suspicions on jampi at the beginning, but I think the fact that he tries defending him after so many have voted for him at one point or another makes him look more town. Earlier Kirby admitted it was unfounded suspicion and he'd never vote on it, but If Kirby was scum, he could easily have just let it happen without saying anything and we'd be in the same spot we are now, but without any (as much) kirby suspicion. On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: this quote especially concerns me. WTF, if the town going to lynch townie and especially since you gave a very strong town read, I expect you to fucking stop the lynch. I think if you defended the shit of him, that would have been the correct move - you would actually look even better than after a switch to another lynch, because for someone to stop a bandwagon on a townie shows the likely characteristics of a townie provided there is good reasoning. but instead you just let him die, this is too convienent since allows your mafia agenda. The last quote of yours that concerns you is the weakest part of your argument. He wrote that five minutes before the end of the day, and he actually had made a couple posts saying that he thought jampi was town after he was on his way to be lynched. He even tried calling out to me to try to get me to switch my vote at the last minute. These two points of your so far are conflicting. First you're saying that kirby is scum because he claimed jampi was town, then you say that he's scum because he didn't do enough to save jampi. I don't buy it. On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: 2nd thing is terrible post history, he has a lot of filler that is not only useless, but also confusing... does not compute, really. no jargon or metaphor is necessary, just give a simple answer plz. I play SC2 and I don't know what a lurker is. :/ He was obviously making a bad metaphor. Just because you haven't played BW (or HotS campaign, apparently), doesn't mean he's scum. That being said, I'm not exactly sure what his metaphor is supposed to mean, either.... I'm ending this post here. I feel it's getting too long. I'll respond to the rest of your post soon. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: Hmm, youre not very committed to lynching this Rainbows guy. This combined with your metaphor makes me rather unclear about your thoughts. You seem so far to suggest a policy of lynching stupid behavior. this is interesting too, since you later propose a conspiracy theory of rainbows, obzy and jjd being mafia at night. What you quoted was from merely hours after the game started. He writes the conspiracy theory you mention over forty hours later. Of course he he's not going to be very committed to lynching rainbows at the start because the game just began! On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: now here is also a huge contradiction. this is after the night kill. how the fuck did fishgle randomly change from being a scumread to townread? this makes no sense at all besides a very obvious scumslip. just explain this? if you are town, it shouldn't be too hard, you should be able to clearly demonstrate his transition from scumread to townread. and for that matter, you should told us why he was a scumread in the first place and a town read later. also smancer smells bad? lol is he sweaty or what? where is your scumread, jrkirby? and why do you have to wait for someone to come to make a case and then bandwagon. this is weak stuff lastly you play the noob card too much. though i understand this is newbie game, if you just use the noob card so much, town just misregards your opinion, which is useless agenda if you're town, but very convienent if you're scum since you can just blend in. I would also really like to know how fishgle went from being scumread to townread. I don't particularly blame him for using the noob card, I've been tempted to use that as an excuse for feeling pretty clueless about stuff. That said, you're correct that it does water down opinions and help stay out of mind, so he should stop saying it. My opinions about fishgle based only on his posts today: + Show Spoiler + I agree with fishgle's points about not letting Obzy have a free ride. He says that kirby pushed town towards voting jampi, then backed off - which isn't true (unless saying you're suspicious of someone, but not enough to vote for them is pushing the town towards a lynch). I don't know whether he said that mistakenly or if he's trying to build up animosity towards kirby and hoping nobody checks out what actually happened. I don't have a strong opinion on him, but I don't see anything that would change someone's opinion of him as much as kirby's apparently has. Maybe kirby just likes being suspected? Or, on a darker note, maybe fishgle is on to something and kirby is hoping that by saying fishgle is town, fishgle will ease up on kirby and not push a kirby lynch too hard On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: this is also too convienent for you to just come in and drop a vote without any scrutinizing. at this point, you are scum - all your actions fit the perfect mold of scum. ##Vote jrkirby die scum. I like the conviction you've ended with, but I feel I've debunked a couple of your points, so I don't agree that kirby is the best offering for lynching (Well, he could be, but I've spent more time looking at your argument than making my own, so I have a limited view on who is doing what other than kirby). Since kirby seems to be everyone's top pick (aside from me), I'm going to take a look at smancer and jarjar and see if I can find kirby's reasoning for suspecting them most. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
Your Mafia perspective is spot on. There was basically no downside to claiming at the point he was at. Your town perspective should include a #3 - The mafia assumed the medic would protect Rainbows, so they didn't want to waste their hit on him, and they knew they could roleblock him so he couldn't do anything anyway. Because of this newly added possibility, your claim that there is no good reason for Mafia to keep Rainbows alive is false, which weakens your argument by a lot. | ||
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Moloch
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On April 10 2013 06:49 Obzy wrote: I'm feeling happier with Moloch since he's posting, and his logic is good too ^^ Moloch, if you were more active, you probably never would have left my happy townread group haha. You're making a revival atm but don't take that as a sign that it's okay to slow down or stop, because it definitely isn't. /crackwhip ^_^; I'm glad you like my logic! I'm here as much as real life lets me be, so don't worry about me disappearing again until next week-end (friend is coming in from out of town, there's a metal show I have to go to [GOATWHORE! YEAAHHH!] and it's the week-end after classes end, AND I have a full week before my first final, so I'll be pretty much constantly drunk the entire time) | ||
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