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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
It's pretty pointless to be looking at the differences between a player's mafia and town play on Day 1. On Day 1 there is absolutely no reason for mafia members to behave differently than town members! In short, mafia players behave exactly like town players on Day 1: they throw around a few accusations, they might speculate on the different roles available in the game, and they might throw around a few town reads as well. All of this is possible because there is no information available at all. Differences in 'play' arise in the following days when information is revealed and pressure is put on certain players (i.e. when they have to justify their voting decisions in previous rounds). A player's behavior changes as a mafia member when they see their teammates under significant pressure. That's when play analysis comes in, not right now. It's much better to ask people for their beliefs to serve as a record for later rounds to measure for inconsistencies and what not. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 16 2013 23:34 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, I lean town on geript. I think it is more likely that geript would have stayed with his RNG lynching if he was scum than if he was town. There is virtually no risk of actually lynching the person you random so this "he randomed his scumbuddy and abandoned ship" idea is pretty bad. After this he goes into setup speculation which is something that peashooter was already getting heat for (not something scum do). When challenged, he directly refers to the thing BH says is most scummy about peashooter (going to bed), and then follows suit. This doesn't strike me as a show of confidence in his innocence, this strikes me as actual confidence. Nothing geript has discussed so far has been constructive, but I don't think that makes him scum. I really like VE's SAST idea after thinking it over and I would love to apply once I am convinced that I can keep up the activity (lurking has been a problem for me in the past). But just so I am clear, the votes go towards the group's opinion, not VE's opinion, right? 2 Questions: 1. What in particular do/did you like about VE's SAST idea? 2. Why do you feel the need to add in a note about lurking into your analysis? Also, who is BH that everyone seems to be referring to? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
He posts about how he finds Scib suspicious near the beginning of the game and consequently never mentions him again. He then talks about how he agrees with the case against GK but never follows up on that. In essence, he merely lists his suspicions but never pushes on his targets at all, hoping that others will do the work for him! This seems to be a classic example of 'trying to fit in'. Hence, I will vote for DoYouHas. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
A player's town play and his scum play do not substantially differ on D1 between games. An normally active player would be active in throwing around accusations as town or as mafia. A lurker would lurk regardless of his role as town or scum. There is no incentive for them to behave differently at the start of the game. Anyways, my point boils down to this: why would a mafia member play differently on D1 than they would if they were town? The only change that I could see is that they would become more aggressive to try to mislead the town. But hold off on your meta arguments until D2 and beyond. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 18 2013 00:06 kitaman27 wrote: ...is this a scum slip? As far as I know, ThePeashooter's identity as Yamato is not public knowledge. Was it revealed at any point in the thread? Yeah...I don't think this was ever revealed in game. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
However, the Vivax-ThePeaShooter thing is super-super-suspicious. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Reading over the thread, I noticed this extremely bizarre post. It's important to note that Wiggles had voted for Greymist prior to this post. On March 18 2013 11:10 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Well, I thought I'd have some time to post right now, but a friend I haven't seen in a while is back in town and I'm going out. The GreY situation has put us in a bad position now, because he's not giving us anything to work with. He's either town who's given up or mafia who isn't going to give any information because he thinks he's dead. So all we have to work with is his earlier posts, and those get me to think he's scum, as per my earlier post. So, that's where my vote's going. I don't know if I'll be back to read or change my vote before the deadline. This is especially bizarre given that nothing especially unusual had happened between his prior 'suspicion' post on GreyMist and the follow up one. If Wiggles truly believed that GM was mafia, why bother with the possibility that he might be a 'given up' townie. It seems to me that Wiggles believes that GM was in fact not mafia and is just putting up some insurance to deflect attention from himself once the GM flipped. Not to mention, this is one of the most flimsy vote justifications I've seen. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
I'm inclined to trust Wade Hand. Like scib had said earlier, it would be much safer for a scum mason to simply a) not mason anyone or b) pretend to mason one of his teammates due to the flip of GM. As per his case on TPS, I've become more and more convinced after reading through TPS' justifications for voting for GM. It is interesting to note that TPS spends more time talking about how he thinks zarepath is scummy. Personally, I think that TPS 'let it play out' over the GM situation so that he couldn't be nailed over strongly leading the GM lynch as he tried to do with Coag. I'll vote for TPS right now. My opinion on DoYouHas has retracted somewhat. I don't think he's been 'attaching himself to arguments' as I had said earlier anymore. Also, Wiggo is still super-scummy in my eyes. His behavior during the GM lynch was really bizarre, but the single post I had highlighted earlier isn't sufficient to make me vote for him. I want to see his analysis today. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
The case against Ryu was well argued, even if he seems to have backed off his initial accusations against Ryu. It at least shows that my initial assessment that he just follows the pack without making substantive arguments was wrong. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
And think about it this. If I were scum, I could have simply given a bogus justification or repeated someone else's argument to 'appear as if I had made a contribution'. I didn't do that, I gave my opinion without writing a paragraph about why I felt that way. Unfortunately, I was unable to participate in the later brouhaha regarding the GM lynch so I couldn't make any extended push against any particular player. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
First, as to my lynch choice today. I have a choice to make between the case against TPS and against Mr. Wiggles (which I had pointed out first last night). For me, the compelling evidence against TPS seems to be his behavior in his very flimsy vote for GM last night and hasn't paid any lip service to the accusations leveled at him. My case against Wiggles has been responded to somewhat, if unconvincingly. In a decision between two scummy candidates, I have to the most likely one, in my opinion it is TPS. As to your second point, you are overgeneralizing. I was asked specifically for the case of zarepath, which I had read over and agreed with. That doesn't mean that any case that's presented to me will be something I agree with. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
That's why we have to look at the particular circumstances of this game as our primary 'evidence'. You state that you didn't have particularly you didn't have any strong reads on D1 and wanted to be seen in a good light. I'm not so sure that is the case when I look back at your D1 posts: and here, as you yourself admit, we see that kita's arguments hold up pretty strongly. Do you have any particular response to kita's arguments beyond your meta? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 20 2013 13:07 Mocsta wrote: I think its important to consider what you wrote here: VERY FUCKING TRUE... Guys, mafia is having a field day with this.... take a step back and look how it unfolded is my suggestion. Scum is there to be found. I'm not quite seeing the scum that easily amongst the votes that developed on WOS? You suggest that this is where scum will be, but could you lend me a hand here? Wiggles vote was definitely dodgy, but I'm not seeing too much beyond that. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 20 2013 16:37 sciberbia wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 20 2013 16:34 Mocsta wrote: Wow Geript.. I wrote this whole post and said fuck it. im not gonna be lazy, I will read 6 pages of WoS. It changed everything. You are right. Kita case still stands. I was wrong. this fucker did not do anything until the Kita case (which is the only stuff I read when WoS asked me to look @ his filter  my derp) I was under the impression he had pushed Mr.Wiggles all of Day 1.. obviously wrong. I dindt realise the majority of his filter came from late Night1/early Day 2. And also that the majority of his filter is just talking shit. There is not a clear agenda. I need to read WoS defense of Kita case one more time, because I wasnt satisfied the first time around; but was giving undue credit for pushing a case Day1. For your reference, the below is the post i was about to make before reading WoS filter. + Show Spoiler + (1) "Balls" Now for what you raised: I didnt unvote WoS because he turned the balls factor on... that would be invalid (cos i gave him a way out).. The way it went down: I skipped to the most recent page, saw that limp post of him and was like WTF, WoS doesnt play like that and made my meta validation vote post. It was that simple. I think its pretty obvious when i voted him, it was with intention to lynch. He then identified to me, that he had "balls" before the meta case. As such, the meta case post in my opinion became his saving grace. (2) Why lynch push is important I know you love poker. so let me me analogous to that. Pros expect a certain level of play, and can actually struggle against newbies, because they dont understand/conform to the "rules' of the game and make unpredicatable/stupid plays. I believe that was the basis of kitaman case on WoS. Those tells on someone like DP would indeed be the nail in the coffin. Unfortunately I dont find them as strong on newbies, because typically they are not as aware of what constitutes good play; or the ramifications of their own play. Hence why I said, Kita case points are indeed valid scum tells; but to me only point to a scum WoS if he hasnt pushed a lynch candidate hard. (That would be the turning point for me to consider the tells as scum, and not newbie town being unaware/stupid). (3) Is the case invalid - i.e. did WoS push anyone hard I need to do a proper read of his filter, instead of just a couple pages. Based on Day2 play, I thought he pushed ppl; hence my retraction of vote. Based on Day1 play, I havent read it (yet.. planning to tonight) If WoS indeed only discussed "Im not familiar to know these meta reads" and didnt push a lynch vote, then I would give serious consideration to Kita case, and most likely lead to a vote on WoS. Unfortunately, I am making a leap of faith currently that the targets WoS pushed today (i.e. Mr.Wiggles etc) are the same ppl from Day1. If that is the situation at hand, then I think Kita case is invalid in full. err no he didn't push any agenda D1. I was going to point this out too: In fact as of N1 Wiggles was one of his "strongest town reads". By early D2, Wiggles was the scummiest person in the thread to WoS. The conversion does not look convincing to me. Look into this as well as my post above and tell me what you think. Good spot, its an astonishing 180 degree turnaround. Moreover, in the posts you quoted earlier, he acts in a very arrogant manner as if to suggest the town is playing poorly; now he wants us to believe that he has been playing a poor townie all along. I can't buy the emotional appeals he's making. I think that you are making a little too much of the cosmicomics connection at the moment though. That can be looked into if WoS does indeed flip red. Mind you, if WoS is scum, then my suspicions against TPS are probably completely wrong. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
As per the '3rd party thing', I find it difficult to imagine VE exposing everything if he were indeed a 3rd party. Let's say for a moment that VE had accepted the '3rd party offer', there would be no need to expose the fact that there is indeed a 3rd party! Why on earth would he do that? It doesn't make sense from a 3rd party perspective! It would be far better for a 3rd party player to simply fake some logs, say that the 'Mirror' player was being deliberately obtuse and let everything blow over. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Incidentally, this means that I was completely wrong on TPS, who cannot be scum, given that: a) if WoS is the cop, then obviously TPS is town and b).if WoS is lying, TPS was one of the first to jump onto WoS, which I doubt mafia would do so quickly. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
Speaking of which where is Wiggles and why has he not responded to any of the events of the day? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 09:15 Vivax wrote: As pointed out with the Bureaucreacy slip in the qt, The Mirror is probably layabout. This also is displayed by his lack of involvement in the game and certain anti-town traits I noticed. I am still confident zarepath, GK and cosmicomics are scum. However, as I see it as of now there are the 2 wildcards I mentioned earlier: Given Trancestorm's latest entrance and a look at his filter I feel he is a good candidate for one of the spots, in the other spot I see fitting either Coag, WF or kita. Coag obviously the guy I'm least sure about. Fairly confident in saying that scum is pushing the Wiggles wagon currently, and VE is grasping at the most likely lynch according to common opinions to save his own hide right now. I disagree with your assessment that scum is pushing the Wiggles wagon. Imagine that you are scum member, and the leading lynch target is a vet who is getting flak for apparently converting into a 3rd party. You don't need to push any wagon in that situation! Just spread your votes around in that situation and you'll come out smelling like roses as you weren't involved in any mislynch. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 09:41 Vivax wrote: It's so easy to find people scummy who contribute when there are guys playing so obviously anti-town or trolling or invisible that you don't want to lynch them. "The vigs will settle it" is not a valid attitude. Imagine if you have a whole bunch of such guys but not a vig for each one of them, which will likely be the case in most games. It doesn't look like we have vigs anyway,so it's in our hands. Let's teach this kind of people how to play the game plz Unvote Vote: Coagulation This is actually exactly what I was referring to earlier. You avoid the major candidates of the day and make a case against someone who you know won't be lynched! There's literally no pressure on Coagulation, so why bother voting for him? This entire game you have been pushing unlikely lynch candidates and I am becoming more and more suspicious -> it seems to me like you are trying to appear as if you are contributing to the discussion. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 09:54 Vivax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2013 09:48 TranceStorm wrote: This is actually exactly what I was referring to earlier. You avoid the major candidates of the day and make a case against someone who you know won't be lynched! There's literally no pressure on Coagulation, so why bother voting for him? This entire game you have been pushing unlikely lynch candidates and I am becoming more and more suspicious -> it seems to me like you are trying to appear as if you are contributing to the discussion. It's much easier for scum to look like they're contributing when they make cases on players most of the thread believes to be scum, since others will find it easier to agree with their cases and hence see them positively. And if scum gets attacked while doing so, the attackers will look like they are attacking the lynch wagon as well, which will attract a lot of attention. You are putting things backwards here. I am contributing to people that most of the thread doesn't seem to care about, and that's what you need usually instead of a blob of collective confirmation bias on single players. Let's think of the game from a scum perspective. Scum want to remain 'under the radar' throughout the game. Therefore, you're presumption is incorrect because even though "others will find it easier to agree with their cases and hence see them positively" on the day of the lynch, being on the mislynch train is incredibly suspicious the following day. Hence, one approach that a mafia player could take is to make lots of cases against a couple of relatively scummy players who don't have much pressure on them and to avoid getting involved in lynches entirely by parking their votes on people who definitely won't get lynched. I'm reasonably certain that you are following this approach. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 10:15 Vivax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2013 10:11 TranceStorm wrote: Let's think of the game from a scum perspective. Scum want to remain 'under the radar' throughout the game. Therefore, you're presumption is incorrect because even though "others will find it easier to agree with their cases and hence see them positively" on the day of the lynch, being on the mislynch train is incredibly suspicious the following day. Hence, one approach that a mafia player could take is to make lots of cases against a couple of relatively scummy players who don't have much pressure on them and to avoid getting involved in lynches entirely by parking their votes on people who definitely won't get lynched. I'm reasonably certain that you are following this approach. No, being on the mislynch wagon with a load of other townies is no risk for them. Each of the townies on the wagon can't accuse them of that without accusing themselves, and outside townies can't accuse them without accusing other townies, it's the perfect example of blending in. You can be accused of your reasons to switch to it/join it, but not of pushing it or being on it. Sure, that is one approach for blending in. Behaving in the way that I have outlined is also another approach for blending in as well. In the one game I have played where I was mafia (a long time ago), everyone spread their votes between candidates. That is to say, scum won't all behave in the way that you have outlined. My argument is that you have behaved in the way that I have outlined and are worthy of a vote in the next day cycle. Anyways, I'll have to do a bit of work, but I'll be back in roughly 2 hours. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 13:34 WaveofShadow wrote: This is the scummiest shit I've ever seen. I am convinced no one in this game knows how to play town or something. Really? How is Ace defensible? What's wrong with Wiggles' case against him? | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 13:37 WaveofShadow wrote: It had nothing to do with Ace being defensible or Wiggles' case, it's your shameless +1 without adding anything at all. 'HAY GUYS DIS CASE RL GOOD I SHOW U WHY' and then you literally repeat what is in Wriggle's post. Which of you guys was it who found TS scummy again? I can't keep track of anything anymore in this thread. Because the case is really good. As a town member, my job is to pick the best person to vote for. I've seen the best case and so I vote with it. It's stupid to obstinately hold onto your beliefs at all times and not consider changes. There is literally zero defense in this thread or anywhere for Ace. I don't understand why others aren't voting that way. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
On March 21 2013 13:49 Mocsta wrote: OK, reason with me Why is my TestSubject case, less valid than Ace My case is predicated on in-game behaviour.. that captures scum mentality. Wiggles case is meta.. on a guy, who rarely plays anymore, and is more than capable of "changing it up" Ok, I'll reason with you. Your TestSubject case, while compelling has a couple of assumptions that might be flawed. For example, you articulate that TestSubject's vote on GM was based on scummy reasoning: "all martyrs are scum -> GM is scum". However, I don't think that bad reasoning equates to scummy reasoning, hell, there has been plenty of bad reasoning throughout the entire day, and both you and I have been guilty of it. I fail to see the 'scummy agenda' behind the vote. Whereas in Ace's case - there is no debate needed about scummy reasoning or what not. Forget about the meta arguments. The mere fact that Ace has done nothing else in the game, no reads, no pushes on anyone, nothing besides the easy job of targeting VE is more scummy than TestSubject's justification for voting for GM. | ||
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TranceStorm
1616 Posts
I'm going to be unable to play in this game because I'll have very limited (if any) internet access for the next week or so. I've asked Dr. H for a replacement as a result. I'd just like to say good luck to my replacement and to the town as well. | ||
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