Setup too good.
This Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia
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yamato77
11589 Posts
Setup too good. | ||
yamato77
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Yeah, fuck. If I did play, though, I'd insta-duel Marv the beginning of day 1 and troll the piss out of him. | ||
yamato77
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I will have plenty of time if this is the case And no, I won't insta-duel anyone. Maybe. | ||
yamato77
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I might out tomorrow once I know what my schedule looks like but I might be able to play, and this setup is quite interesting. | ||
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If we all agree on someone to lynch, I'll duel them and make sure it goes through. | ||
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On February 25 2013 05:05 Hapahauli wrote: This a problem? I've never had problems being super-paranoid early days. I'm talking about consolidation and getting town to agree on the choices, not personal reads. Picking two people that everyone agrees are scummy is many times more difficult than picking just one person and having a townie player duel them and get them lynched. | ||
yamato77
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This way people are directly responsible for their accusations. If you're going to call someone mafia, you should go against him and prove it. Picking two scummy looking players just makes it that much easier for mafia to fake scum hunting. If you hit mafia with the lynch using my method, you have a ton of information to lynch his buddies with. | ||
yamato77
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For the record, if the deadline is coming up and people are arguing incessantly about these two choices, I'm going to just pick one and lynch him. I'm your insurance, I suppose, because my method isn't a best-case scenario idea of the lynch like getting town to consolidate on two choices. | ||
yamato77
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I understand how having one town looking player duel one mafia looking player might stagnate discussion after the duel. I do think I will be able to extract enough information from the selection period to make a good lynch decision on my own, however, should town fail to implement you guy's plan effectively. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 06:33 Hapahauli wrote: I feel like you're treating this too much like the wild-west and not enough like a mafia game Yamato. The Duel mechanic can absolutely fuck us over if used rashly. I trust my own ability to read the game. I'm not going to be dueling people on a whim, I'll be doing it if I feel that town is needlessly arguing themselves out of lynch choices and things aren't clear, like I think will inevitably happen when you're trying to pick TWO lynches, as opposed to one like a normal game. Half the time, town has a difficult enough time consolidating on one person. Two people is going to be many times more confusing. I want clarity of decision making, and what I am is insurance of that. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 06:46 Hapahauli wrote: Hence the policy I proposed earlier. @ Marv Can you expand on Cora? Policies are bad, because no one ever follows them and even if you do, it's a fucking policy and there's no discussion. Hapa you're not this retarded. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 06:46 marvellosity wrote: It's not insanely difficult to enforce. It should be not too hard to find at least the group of people we want to lynch into, and then give a deadline/ultimatum for 2 of them to duel, or if there's 1 clear frontrunner, give a couple of people the choice of whether they want to duel with the frontrunner. Actually the information you'll get from how people deal with this while under suspicion is probably far greater than any information you'll get from just having one clear townie dueling with someone suspicious. Whether ppl duel like they're asked, or go afk, how the suspects deal with the whole dueling situation - there's a whole mine of good shit there. Further, I overwhelmingly back my judgement on who mafia are and are not over yours, yamato, so the last thing I need is you running off playing the hero. In this situation, you're spreading out the pressure and possibility of getting lynched among many people, which makes it inherently more difficult to gauge the game state for mafia. I agree with the idea in sentiment, that is, if it worked perfectly it does well, but I think you're going to have a hard time getting people to apply the real pressure of lynch on the people you want to feel pressured without people like me with our finger on the trigger. | ||
yamato77
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In a group of people with a few people pointing their guns at many. Or As one person, with a gun to your head. It's an inexact analogy, but it serves to show how I view the situation. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 06:52 Hapahauli wrote: What in the fuck... /wrists First of all, the "policy" I proposed is not a deviation from common sense. If we ask a person to duel another person, and he refuses to do so, that person is suspicious as fuck and should be considered a lynch candidate. So there's two people, you tell both of them to duel each other, but neither of them will, or they duel someone else. What are you going to do now? | ||
yamato77
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You guys do whatever you want. If town is fucking around like I think they will, I'm going to make sure SOMEONE that I think is mafia gets lynched. | ||
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On February 25 2013 06:59 marvellosity wrote: Why do you think town will? As far as I can see you're the one in the thread being retarded so far, so if it does it'll be because of people like you. Like I said, the last thing town needs is someone like you playing the hero. The last thing town needs is a bunch of people yelling at each other to duel someone else. But whatever, do what you want. I'm only going to duel someone if things go bad, which I think they will. If they go your way, good, but I doubt it. Town is rarely that cooperative. | ||
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On February 25 2013 07:04 marvellosity wrote: See LIX, town did whatever I told them to because I had the right answers. If you go into the game thinking town is going to fuck up, that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't see any reason why things should 'go bad', and your attitude is unnecessarily negative. I'm a realist. LIX had you, Sandro, toad, and wbg leading town. I have no idea if you're even town yet and I probably won't for a while, so no, I'm not comfortable with this town becoming a sheep fest, and I don't think it should even if you are town. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 07:04 iamperfection wrote: meh you just haven't experienced many good towns im gonna guess mafia will be under pressure from this setup im gonna guess since time is on our side. And looking at the player list some of the better players will likely be town so we will be able to sweat the mafia i would say We'll see. That's the last I'm going to say on the matter. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 07:10 marvellosity wrote: Being unnecessarily negative isn't realistic. And good town != sheepfest. There are plenty of good towns, and I'll tell you for free that none of these good towns had guys in them telling the rest of town things were gonna get fucked up. Anyway, i'm done with you for now. Whatever Marv. You can disagree with me, but insinuating that I'm fostering a negative atmosphere is absurd. I'm telling you, you're going to have issues with your plan, and that dealing with them requires people who are willing to bone up and lynch people. If you can't see that, I don't know what to tell you. | ||
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On February 25 2013 07:15 Hapahauli wrote: Yamato, I know we're not agreeing over general policy and whatnot, but just promise me that you'll atleast seek the town's input before you go "IT'S TIME TO D-D-D-D-D-DUEL!" Playing hero can end really really badly. I don't know how many times I've already said that. I'm insurance. If you guys are successful, good, I'll play along. If you're not, I'm not going to just sit by and do nothing. Contrary to what Marv thinks, sometimes town does need people with balls. He knows better than to insinuate that I'm not able to catch mafia. | ||
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On February 25 2013 07:17 marvellosity wrote: yamato, no-one's going to let the time run out at the end of the day. So you're standing up all high and mighty solving a problem that doesn't exist. Okay, Marv. We'll see. I've seen enough bad towns that I'm skeptical, but you might be right, and in that case, you can rest assured that I'm not going to fuck it up. You should know better than to assume I'm going to play that anti-town. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 07:23 marvellosity wrote: So you think me, hapa, acro etc. will sit here twiddling our thumbs and no-lynch?? i'm presuming the answer is no, in which case my previous post still applies. I cannot be sure of any of your alignment, or that you'll all agree on who to lynch, or that other town players will agree with any of you on who to lynch, and all of that has to happen to have this plan run effectively. But okay, we'll see Marv. | ||
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Come on, guys, post. | ||
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Is it scummy for him to do what you point out? You left out any comment on his alignment. | ||
yamato77
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All I've said the whole time is that I don't think it's going to work, and that I'll be there to fix the problem if it doesn't. Many times I have said I am not messing with the policy itself unless I feel like it isn't working. What about that is so difficult to understand, Acro? | ||
yamato77
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Hilariously scummy. Scummiest thing posted yet. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 09:20 marvellosity wrote: hmm? you mean Acro's post? Do you disagree? | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 09:31 Acrofales wrote: This is pretty obviously NOT saying you think the policy is fine, but needs a backup plan. In fact, you call the policy bad, say there won't be discussion from it and call Hapa retarded for being in favour of the policy. Which one is it? Hapa's backup policy was bad, because it implied an immediate lynch candidate for breaking the plan that no one would end up following. I have said multiple times that Marv's plan is a good one if town is compliant. The problem I have said, also many times, is that town is not always compliant, even if/when Marv is town. Are you just not reading? | ||
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Discuss. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 09:44 cDgCorazon wrote: Yamato is trying to change the subject and slink into the shadows. Discuss. Notice the difference between my post and yours? I have the balls to call you mafia, yet this is the millionth time you've insinuated that someone is scummy yet not called them scum. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 09:48 Acrofales wrote: I looked over your filter again and you never actually say that. Thanks for clearing it up. However, if Hapa's policy is bad, what is your backup plan: you say you will duel your scumread. Will players not wanting to duel themselves not influence those scumreads? They will, and that's what is good about the plan. It does get a lot of information if it works properly. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 09:49 Acrofales wrote: I disagree. Why do you think Cora is scum? On February 25 2013 09:46 yamato77 wrote: Notice the difference between my post and yours? I have the balls to call you mafia, yet this is the millionth time you've insinuated that someone is scummy yet not called them scum. | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:07 marvellosity wrote: right Adam, and it's people like you who will fuck up the game. Only if we're wrong Huehuehue | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:10 marvellosity wrote: Ah yes. The legends of TL Mafia - Foolishness, syllogism, sandroba, Palmar, Adam, and yamato. My bad I'm just saying, I know you're more likely to be right than me, but I am perfectly capable if catching mafia, and if I feel the need to duel him in order for him to die I will do so. There's no reason to assert that this behavior will fuck up the game, so long as it isn't done too rashly. | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:13 cDgCorazon wrote: Well if you're going to call me mafia (and call Marv mafia), you're going to need some sort of proof that implies that you are not jumping to conclusions. Attacking your desired approach to the game (which is different from attacking you ) is far from proof. If you expect me to think someone is scum based off of 1-2 posts, you are expecting way too much out of anyone here. The fact that you are trying to piggyback on momentum already started by others just because you are tired of talking about something is scummy. That doesn't make me 100% positive you are scum though. I never called Marv mafia. You did indeed attack me in the post I quoted by insinuating I was scummy, but you never said "scum" or "mafia". I do expect you to take stances. That's how you play the game. | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:33 cDgCorazon wrote: Did you read anything besides the first line of my answer? Did you ever explain how anything I've said makes me mafia? Nope. | ||
yamato77
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What are you trying to get at? | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:39 cDgCorazon wrote: That every post should not be saying "_____ is scum, here's why". That's not discussion, that's "Reign of Terror". Reads change during the game. You want me to come out and say that I think you are 100% scum confirmed without any possible changes of heart later on. That is ridiculous and you know it. No, I want you to take any stance at all about anyone's alignment And you aren't. | ||
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On February 25 2013 10:44 cDgCorazon wrote: I want you to not say everyone that disagrees with you is scum. And you aren't. Savvy? I never, ever said that. Ever. You are not doing well here, my friend. | ||
yamato77
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On February 25 2013 10:50 cDgCorazon wrote: Then why, when I said that I disagreed with your desired way to play the game and that there were conflicts in your arguments, did you change the subject and put pressure on me? That's a scummy move. You tried to flip the tables and use Marv's momentum to attack me and making it look like you are scum hunting when in reality you are just pressuring me to be so good at Mafia that I have the scum team pegged down already. That is a scummy move. Do some real scumhunting. Threatening me is not going to help disprove the "Reign of Terror" atmosphere that you are putting out here. You picked an opportune moment to pile on the people questioning me, and all of what you had written was retreading stuff people had already put out there. I was tired of talking about setup, which is pointless and was getting irritatingly stupid, so I put out my scum read. Since then, you haven't managed to take any stances about anyone being mafia at all for anything that is actually alignment indicative. Now you're all-in because I'm your only read, so you call me scummy now when earlier you didn't. | ||
yamato77
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Whatever, I've done enough. Other people can post. | ||
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You're probably not mafia anyway. | ||
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He's arguing his point with me, standing his ground. It's that I'm mafia, but it's reasonable for him to think I'm just jumping on with you and others who had expressed dislike with him. Arguing the point does nothing to get any better read on him. | ||
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On February 25 2013 11:15 cDgCorazon wrote: Yes I would love to know why you are "bored of me". Is it because you realize I'm right? Is this a continuation of a trend to change the subject when the pressure is on you? Don't get a hold on confirmation bias, here. I think you're probably not mafia, and that means it's really not useful to continue this line of attack anymore. | ||
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Any will do. | ||
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TOWN Town criteria vary from person to person, and a lot of quick town reads I get are based on meta or simple activity in conjunction with meta. For some players, these things don't apply so much, so I judge them based on reads. You guys can figure out which ones of these I get how, because I hate telling people why I have a town read on them, in general. Marv Corazon Adam Iamp Dienosore Oats NULL These players either haven't posted enough or are posting things that don't give me an alignment feel of them. Obviously. Snarfs Acrofales Keirathi Zarepath Alderan Sylencia Lots of lurky fuckers so far this game and one ambiguous dude. MAFIA HAPA On February 25 2013 07:15 Hapahauli wrote: Yamato, I know we're not agreeing over general policy and whatnot, but just promise me that you'll atleast seek the town's input before you go "IT'S TIME TO D-D-D-D-D-DUEL!" Playing hero can end really really badly. A lot of his early posting was devoted to arguing with me about the setup, which many people did, but the way he did it bothered me, and it is exemplified in this post. He parroted Marvellosity a lot and generally tried to follow him. Example: On February 25 2013 06:46 Hapahauli wrote: Hence the policy I proposed earlier. @ Marv Can you expand on Cora? First he makes this post, asking Marv to expand on Cora, and Marv does. What is interesting here is Hapa's next move: On February 25 2013 06:57 Hapahauli wrote: Ok this is getting nowhere. @ Cora Let's not start with the "woe is me" attitude. Why did people not like you in your previous games, and what are you going to do about it this game? He begins a line of questioning with Cora, presumably with a negative attitude toward him. How does he follow up? On February 25 2013 08:57 Hapahauli wrote: Corazon, I get the impression that you're more concerned with calling Sylencia a dick rather than anything else. It's fine if you don't get along with him, but it does nothing for town objectives. Meekly. So far a lot of his posting is this kind of thing, where he mildly scolds a player (myself, Corazon, etc) for doing something vaguely anti-town. He doesn't seem particularly interested in finding mafia, just with appearing to do so with vague questions that he never really pushes, such as this: On February 25 2013 11:11 Hapahauli wrote: @ Oats Two things about this post: 1) It sounds a lot like you're jumping on Cora by taking his one statement about "rouge players" out of context. He's been pretty vocal about Yamato, and I think it's pretty clear that he links Yamato's behavior to scummy behavior. 2) That Marv read makes no sense. If you actually read his filter, I don't know how you could come to the conclusion that he's been over-polite. Example: He comments on things in people's play, but I haven't seen him make a real comment about alignment aside from iamperfection yet this game, and I'm not at all sold on that idea. I don't believe Hapahauli is concerned with finding mafia, but I do think he's doing a particularly good job blending in by asking a lot of questions and being mildly active. His mafia meta is somewhat close to this, if I remember Dessert correctly, so I'm interested to see how it develops. So far, he's been different from the town-leader Hapahauli that I am used to seeing. THRAWN Mostly a meta read, to be honest. In Normal Mini IV, iamperfection accurately categorized thrawn's mafia play as lurky, and successfully lynched him on that idea. So far he's been fairly lurky, and what he has posted doesn't exactly inspire confidence in me with the idea that he's town. His biggest interaction is with Oats, and I don't see where he reaches any sort of conclusion about Oats in it. Also of note is his "scum read" on iamp, which he has wholly failed to justify beyond: On February 25 2013 10:06 thrawn2112 wrote: I'm not willing to commit to a read on cora yet. Nothing he's posted so far is all that alignment indicative, coming from him. As for yamato... maybe slighty town? I disagree with the logic behind nearly all of what he's said so far but he's acting in a townish manner. Iamp could be scum. All he's done is drop off a town read and comment on how useless the thread is. and On February 25 2013 11:38 thrawn2112 wrote: Yeah I think iamp's scum. I can't feel the townie thought process behind his posts and his explanations are short and dismissive. To me, that's not exactly evidence of strong scumhunting. Perhaps time will flesh this out, but right now I'm not impressed. Anyway, it's early and a bunch of people have yet to post but that's where I sit right now. I'm going to bed. I'll be sporadically active the next couple of days, but I'll have enough time to catch some mafia for sure. | ||
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Let's make it happen, people. | ||
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What he is doing is also scummy, because it's not hunting scum. I don't even know what it is. I have no idea what his reads are at all. | ||
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I wouldn't say that his play this game is much of a jump from that. He want from not posting to posting nothing. | ||
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On February 26 2013 03:01 thrawn2112 wrote: lol so everyone is calling hapa scum but they don't want him as a potential lynch candidate? Are you reading? | ||
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On February 26 2013 03:07 Acrofales wrote: Why? And why are you not answering my questions? If you think Hapa is mafia, why do you have a problem with him dueling? I'm not answering your questions because I don't see the utility in doing so. I laid out my reasons for calling him mafia and his response doesn't really change my mind. | ||
yamato77
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However, in the second quote, you see a different mindset altogether, one of excuses made for the lack of scumhunting he's actually done today. Town Hapa is paranoid, aggressive with his scum reads. This Hapa is not, and is scummier for it. | ||
yamato77
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I'm pretty sure that guy's town, and it had nothing to do with agreeing with me. Your attack in him does seem to hinge on that point, that somehow his bravado is scum motivated, which would imply that mine was too, because I did it first as you pointed out. Honestly, I want to see Keir hang. Someone make it happen. Sylencia is another one I could live without right now. My null reads from earlier have returned to the thread and done fuck all to make me think they're townie. Time's a wastin' | ||
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Still keeping a watchful eye on you two. And Alderan with his horrid list post that was neither organized nor coherent. | ||
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I don't see it. Just because he won't have to back it up doesn't mean it doesn't have town motivations. And as I asked earlier, if this is your argument, why dies it apply to him and not me ? | ||
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Going to have to sit on this for a while. | ||
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I don't think a town Adam has as little forethought as to make a decision like this one and duel someone on a whim. While I proclaimed that I would duel my scum reads, I never intended to do so unless I felt like it was necessary to secure a lynch, which is not how I think the situation was playing out today, lest I would have done so myself. This action is quite anti-town. However, it does make a lot of sense if Adam is mafia, because this has pro-mafia written all over it. Over-aggressive, OMGUS, and discussion haltering in nature. Also, while he's putting himself on the line, he's doing so IN LINE WITH THREAD SENTIMENT, which was that Keirathi was mafia, and Adam was the town. Just like in Nomination, mafia are wont to do things that seem risky and townie, so long as the real risk is low. The only reason I honestly thought Adam was town before this was because his mafia reputation is super easy to catch and lurky as fuck. I don't know how to read him now, but I think he's a better lynch than Keir, simply for the act of dueling him right now. If he's town, it was a colossally stupid thing to do, and it doesn't make me any more convinced that Keir is mafia, nor has he done a whole lot of in-depth analysis to prove this point. ##Vote: Adam | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:31 Adam4167 wrote: How was this horrible? I think hes scum, he's suspicious of me (but not directly calling me scum). Half the town thinks hes scum, half the town has me null or worse. It should provide a wealth of information, if not a scum death. This is exactly the opposite of a "wealth of information" What you did was neuter the normal "day period". Now it's like the retarded end of day period where everyone's picking a wagon, only there hasn't been NEARLY ENOUGH discussion on these wagons to make either of them particularly attractive. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:40 Adam4167 wrote: When I put your last post alongside this quote... something doesnt add up. I did not mean RIGHT NOW. Like, not at all. This was bad timing to do so. If I really wanted to see him lynched, I would have dueled him myself, but the proof isn't there, and his responses to my prods are townie responses, not scummy ones. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:43 Adam4167 wrote: Yet you didn't have a problem jumping on one instantly, even after declaring that you were going to sit on it for awhile? Yeah. OK. What I quickly realized was that you're more likely mafia than town for doing this. That's what that post you're trying to bury says, you know. | ||
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On February 26 2013 16:37 Keirathi wrote: Not necessarily to look townie later, but that he gets to use the argument "Look guys, Im town because I did something abnormal!" The difference between you and him is that you aren't in here making that argument for yourself to buy town cred. Other people have made it for you. If someone else had said "I think Adam is probably town because he was willing to propose his own unique idea rather than just blending into the town sentiment" I would have probably agreed with them. But for Adam himself to say it triggers my paranoia reflex. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:46 Adam4167 wrote: I'm not burying shit. Its right there for everyone to see. My mafia play is lurky and passive, its right there in Hero mafia for everyone to see. If you think this is my mafia game, you're delusional. That is literally the only point in your favor right now, Adam. The only one. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:51 Adam4167 wrote: The only point in my favor is that i'm playing completely opposite to my scum meta? MMM GEE, SOUNDS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD POINT TO HAVE IN MY FAVOR. It's only a free-pass for so long, dude. At some point you have to judge people independent of their meta, which is what I'm doing. Your play here is mafia-motivated, as I've clearly outlined. You're not even arguing that part, you're arguing that you're somehow confirmed town because you aren't playing passive, which lets me in on the psychological mindset you have. You're concerned here with proving that you're town, not with proving that Keir is mafia, and that is exactly what Keir accused you of before. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:52 Oatsmaster wrote: Wait ok yamato, Why is adam scum, and Keir town. GOOOOO Read, Oats. For once in a game with me, read my posts, and think. It's fucking THERE. | ||
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On February 26 2013 17:56 thrawn2112 wrote: is this the townie response? he buddies you and puts words into adam's mouth. (afaik adam never actually directly tried using that logic to give himself townie points... there is only keir's accusation that that was what happened) On February 26 2013 14:30 Adam4167 wrote: Now that my internet is recovered: I fully support this duel between Thrawn and Keirathi. Thrawn is taking ownership of his reads, something I mentioned yesterday, I respect that. That case against me was god awful, stinks of nothing-scum-case. It does nothing to illustrate why i'm scum, only that I was using logic that shows I think i'm town and everyone else should think it too. | ||
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Hm. Okay, we'll see about that. If you really think Keir is mafia, I expect some form of analysis that isn't "I think he's mafia because he thinks I'm mafia" when I wake up tomorrow. Otherwise my vote will be well-placed. | ||
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Both people scumhunt other people and we choose the least believable after the fact. Let's do it. | ||
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I'm going afk for a while. Hopefully by this time tomorrow there will be a clearer choice between the two, but right now my vote stays where placed, because Adam has yet to further justify his read on Keirathi as I requested. | ||
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On February 27 2013 04:55 zarepath wrote: Because they DON'T both look terrible. They both look suspicious, but the problem with this whole duel is the fact that nobody wanted Adam in it except for Adam, and only two people wanted Keirathi in it. This is not a town-sanctioned duel, and so the scummiest people aren't in it. If we're ever going to double-lynch, let's have it be when town has actually put its two scummiest reads up for lynch, not when bad town goes after lurker town (this seems very possible). When people are saying that Adam looks scummier than Keirathi, it's still all relative -- I'm not convinced he's scum, let alone that they're BOTH scum. This is excellent analysis of the situation. Just wanted to point that out. | ||
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On February 27 2013 15:25 Snarfs wrote: ...well if that's what I'm doing then what I'm doing is not what I'm trying to do -_-. I'm just trying to figure out why Corazon is voting Adam if his top scumread, Sylencia, is voting Adam in a manner that scum would be attempting to subtly kill off a townie (please note, this does not look anything like a bus). At the same time, this only makes sense if Cora truly believes that Keir is town. How can he truly believe Keir is town at this point in the game? Only you're not just talking about Cora's vote... On February 27 2013 15:02 Snarfs wrote: Yea, I just read over Keir and Adam's filters again and I'm even more of the opinion that people should not be voting Adam and should definitely be voting Keir. Especially if you think Sylencia is suspicious at all. It's exactly like Dieno said. Keir has so little... conviction in anything. It just doesn't read like he cares. "I'm not entirely convinced Adam is scum. I would appreciate some feedback." "I would be fine dueling you. I think you are scum." Where's the will to actually hunt? I don't see it. Let's kill Keirathi. P.S. Still not placing my vote, the time can only benefit town... but seriously... why are people voting Adam over this guy? Aside from the sentence I bolded, nothing is new in this entire post. I still don't agree that it is alignment indicative of Keir for him to be lurky, or indecisive about his early reads. The only new argument here is that people should NOT vote for Adam because Sylencia IS, which is an association case that is very, very bad. | ||
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The guy does fuck all as town. I lost a game as town because of his propensity to lurk and be useless. There's zero indication to me that he's CONFIRMED MAFIA and we should get off the person he wants to vote for. The only question here is if you're really dumb enough to push this sort of logic or if you're mafia attempting to manipulate the lynch. | ||
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Snarfs. | ||
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On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. ... WBG, I feel you. | ||
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You seem pretty convinced of it, though, so at least I can assume you're probably town for it. | ||
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On February 27 2013 16:14 Snarfs wrote: I almost decided to just leave this for the night because you seriously pissed me off with that comment. But I at least want you to convince me it's a bad case rather than just making me feel like shit T_T. Okay. So. Where is my flawed premiss? Your flawed premise is assuming that Sylencia is mafia. It's fine to read him that way, but when you start making decisions in the game based upon him being one alignment or another, you run into a multitude of problems, the biggest one being that despite your apparent conviction, the possibility exists that you are wrong, and Sylencia is town. What Sylencia is doing right now is only useful for figuring out his own alignment, not the alignment of the people he is voting for. | ||
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Based on the complete uselessness of both parties involved in this lynch, Adam and Keirathi, I think the likelihood of them both being town is high. Mafia in this position would be more concerned with the possibility of being lynched here, and do something about it. Neither of these players seems to be trying particularly hard to live, so by default they're probably just town. It's unfortunate that one, or perhaps both, might die in this situation, but if I had to pick one, I would pick Adam. Keirathi, I think, is the better town among the two, and could potentially be valuable to us later on if left alive. That said, at this point, it doesn't matter too much to me which one lives, because I don't think either of them is particularly useful this game. THAT said, I don't want both to die. The mere thought of a double lynch is hilariously stupid in this situation, and I don't like the idea of not choosing either of them at all. Mafia have an unprecedented ability to hide in this situation, because they don't even have to FAKE a read on a player and justify it, they can just say they think they're both worth lynching and not vote, causing a double lynch. So who is doing this? Iamperfection. I initially thought he was fairly townie, but his interest in this lynch is tremendously low. Like, I don't think he's given a read on either of these people that was longer than a sentence or deeper than "He's mafia because XX and I said so." In fact, that's basically how all of his reads have been so far, town or scum. But what is really damning, to me, is the fact that he's pushing this double lynch thing with no good logic to back it up. Acro, I can believe. Iamp is just kinda on that wagon and has pushed it without a clear motive like Acro's. If these two really are townies, like I think, then mafia is more likely to be disinterested in picking sides, and has clear motivation to want them both dead. It's the same heuristic I used to catch on to Snarfs in Nomination; mafia players don't care which townie dies, and won't spend much effort picking one. Only iamp isn't even picking one. Hilariously scummy. | ||
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On February 27 2013 16:34 Snarfs wrote: But. I'm. Not. Assuming. He's. Mafia. I'm saying that Corazon is :S I don't follow that logic at all. I clearly just told you how someone could, and indeed should, ignore their read on Sylencia when factoring in who to vote for. That's like, your whole argument. | ||
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And we should definitely make sure we don't jump the gun on being stupid with these sort of duels in the future, because as my initial reaction showed, it's mafia-favored to do something like this. That said, I think I have some decent reads out of what happened today, so going into tomorrow, I hope people start listening to me. | ||
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On February 27 2013 16:56 thrawn2112 wrote: yamato, i say if they are both town then it's a lose-lose trying to figure out which one to lynch. what you are describing is voting on a "lose-lose slightly less" scenario. I think we would have more to gain by lynching on the basis of which one is more likely to flip red. if one of them is red, voting on the basis of saving the better player is stupid. I'd rather vote based on the 'lose-win' scenario than the 'lose-lose slightly less' scenario. So do you have anything new to add to the keir vs adam discussion, focusing on which of them could be scum? I've added the only useful analysis needed, if you bother to read my filter. Adam's play is mafia-favored, and his likelihood of doing this again is high, so if we're strictly talking about lynching people who are playing anti-town, he is the obvious favorite. Keirathi's play, while indecisive, does not indicate a strong mafia mentality. His Adam read was not in line with thread sentiment, and he was only just in the process of fleshing it out. His time does seem legitimately limited, as Hapa pointed out, which significantly excuses the "scummiest" part of his play; the apparent lack of interest in the game. Adam's play since calling for the duel is quite terrible. All he's done is excuse and defend his decision, he really hasn't added to town's efforts in any meaningful way. While I do think his defensiveness is a little weird, the overall tone of his posts and his mentality seems townish. He's not overly concerned with being lynched for this, so it's a decent sign he might not be mafia. Keirathi has played similarly since the duel was called, to be honest. The fact that neither one is a clear candidate, nor that anyone is pushing particularly hard for one or the other is a decent sign to me that mafia doesn't care at all which one dies, and town isn't confident enough in either being mafia to make a distinction. While the possibility exists that one is mafia, I think the likelihood is low, and if there is a mafia, it's far more likely to be Adam than Keir, because of the analysis of Adam's decision I made earlier on. | ||
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Like, oh my god, Acro, are you mafia? | ||
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You could be. This "Adam is 3p" shit is stupid. You have zero proof. You're just pulling it out of thin air. What's even more disturbing is how hard iamp is riding your wagon right now. Dude is pushing the same shit as you. I am confident he is mafia. | ||
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On February 28 2013 04:17 Acrofales wrote: Hrmm, yamato, have you read the arguments? Or are you just opposed to a double lynch on general principle? Do you have an updated opinion on Keirathi? How about Adam? Why are you voting for Adam? I've read the arguments, but you're so far into fantasy land with this that it makes zero sense. Adam's play makes plenty of sense from a town perspective, he's just not trying very hard to show it. I am opposed to a double lynch, and I will be voting Keirathi as the hammer if one more vote comes on him soon. | ||
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Someone with balls make sure this doesn't end in a double lynch. I have to go to work. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote Keirathi | ||
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NOW | ||
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Lynching mafia Keir should give me a heap of info to run with. | ||
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On February 27 2013 11:45 Acrofales wrote: This case doesn't convince me of Keirathi's scumminess. Partially because you are reading Keirathi's posts rather differently from the way I read them and partially because some of the things you bring up aren't scumtells. I do not trust your judgement with regards to Keirathi at the moment, and with Dieno out of the picture for now, that leaves 0 other people you have seriously commented on. You've given brief town reads on some players, but that is about it. I'm still trying to make up my mind what to do about you. Quite a few people have said that they think that your premature duel could be because you were a triggerhappy townie. Reading your filter again, I can see how they reach that conclusion. However, townies own up to their mistakes. It's clear you realize it was not a good move from a town point of view: Yet we have, just half an hour earlier: Are you maybe a 3rd party? Regarding Keirathi, I'm waiting for his promised activity before I proceed on him. His initial reaction to the duel is to pressure Adam. Here he argues against Adam's case on Keirathi and calls it "not convincing". To me, this would immediately imply that he is not apt for lynching Keirathi over Adam, which is an important thing to note in the timeline of events that Acro undertakes this game. His initial stance is to set up his Adam as 3p platform and not talk about Keirathi directly. Not lynch Keir. On February 27 2013 22:14 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I read through Keir's filter. Here are the three main points I find: 1. He enters the thread with a post that does absolutely nothing beside announce his presence. He is, however, not present, because his next post is > 15 hours later. At the time it got my alarm bells ringing, but unless Keir's scumplay went completely down the shitter since GSL Open, all we can conclude from that is that he made a stupid opening post and then buggered off without ever contributing. 2. His pressure on Thrawn seems quite okay. Then again, Thrawn was pretty easy pickings. What I get from GSL Open is that scum Keirathi makes sensible cases on low-hanging fruits (Risen that game, on D1, in a similar situation to Thrawn here, if I understood what I read correctly). However, he is never around to scumhunt or update his read, so I have no clue whether he is trying to actually figure thrawn out, or just push a target for the sake of pushing. 3. His Adam read is the only really novel thing he has contributed to the thread. This was after Marv and I had both said Adam seemed to be null, leaning town (at the time, don't rip this quote out of context). However, he says that this wasn't a scumread on Adam, just calling him out on something he didn't like and trying to get a discussion going. The main question is: was this just throwing out a test balloon, or was he actively trying to figure out Adam's alignment? We'll never know because the conversation was cut short and Keirathi is too inactive to tell. As you can see, his inactivity completely prohibits me from drawing any conclusions about what he has done. However, what makes him scum is what he hasn't done. So far the wishy washy both sides bit where I explain how his inactivity is screwing with my reads. The BEST indicator of scum Keirathi is the inactivity himself. There are 3 players who have played repeatedly with Keir: Iamp, Hapa and Marv. Keir has played about a billion town games between GSL Open and now. I can imagine it must be really scary to be scum for the first time in ages and playing with 3 players who are very familiar with your playstyle. Intimidated, and maybe short on time, he is simply not posting his reads like he would as a townie. I will call it the Sandroba defense, because Sandroba did the exact same thing in CT: rather than try to play the game, even when he was at risk of being lynched, he just disappeared out of the game. In that game, I wanted to give Sandroba the benefit of the doubt, because I argued inactivity, in and of itself, is not a scumtell. I was wrong. I learned my mistake. Keirathi signed up for the game, he has played plenty of games to know what is the time commitment required. He is simply not motivated to post. That makes him scum. Kill it with fire. Kill them both with fire! Vote for the double lynch Here he makes his case on Keirathi, but his conclusion is still not lynch Keir. It's lynch them both. It's mafia mentality, because while this is a semi-bus, he is in effect NOT taking a stance with the"double lynch" outcome, which is a decent one for himself. It both increases Keirathi's chances of survival and makes Acro look better for him to call Keir scum, but refuse to vote him for the reason that Adam is "Third Party" and should die as well. Especially since Adam was the vote leader for most of the day, and I was pushing him as mafia. On February 28 2013 01:44 Acrofales wrote: Oh, dafuq. What is it with you people and your lack of reading comprehension Adam is an evil 3P who cares jack shit about the wellbeing of this town Keirathi is evil scum who needs to die Both must die. I will duel the next person who asks for my reads on adam and keir, because I hereby declare a policy lynch on people not reading the thread. Again, as if there was any question about his agenda, he gives it to us here in big and bold. On February 28 2013 04:26 Acrofales wrote: I don't care that there's not enough proof for YOU to want them both dead. There's enough proof for ME to want them both dead, and it's my vote. Beating a dead horse, but you get the point. I give him the townie option, lynch scum, but he refuses. It's almost too easy. On February 28 2013 03:25 Acrofales wrote: No I don't. We're cruising for a double lynch. I don't need to persuade anybody at the moment. Inaction is the best action. He's not actively pushing Keir as mafia, he's pushing a double lynch, which he is completely okay with. While 1 for 1 trades favor town, the object of the game is to lynch mafia, not lynch people you think might be third party along with mafia. But does he even really want Keirathi to die, necessarily? On February 28 2013 05:18 Acrofales wrote: Cora and everybody else: at least read, and comment on: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17894996 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17895445 Before throwing your vote onto Keir. If you have questions, I am here. No, he doesn't. Amidst me pushing for an actual lynch and getting people to consolidate on Keir, we have Acro still pushing his double lynch theory, even though he supposedly thinks Keir is mafia. Why is this an undesirable outcome in Acro's mind? Isn't lynching mafia the point of the game? This all hinges on his "Adam is third party" thing which is complete bullshit. He has no reason to believe there exists a third party in the game. Look at his reply to Hapa here: On February 28 2013 20:23 Acrofales wrote: @Hapa: I agree with some of your reads and disagree with others, when I finish filtering I will decide what that entails. However, for the moment, what is Thrawn the 3P's wincon? You can't just posit that he's a 3P because he wanted multiple people dead, out of the blue. Why does that fit with a survivor wincon? Where is the KP from an SK? You have to explain how that works, because I just don't see it. You state that me suggesting there's a 3P in Adam is bad play or scummy: what does offputting mean in that sentence? Yet 5 lines down you are doing it yourself for thrawn. Explain. He argues against Thrawn as 3p, because Hapa has no proof, yet this is the exact way he posited Adam was 3p. He had no proof, and just fit an idea of a POSSIBLE role, that he doesn't even know exists, to push his agenda of a double lynch. He seems so utterly convinced of Adam being third party despite there being no proof, or anything beyond ONE impulsive duel of a person that actually did flip mafia. He's stuck with this theory because without it, it's absolutely clear that he was playing in a mafia favored way, with a mafia mentality. So let me ask you this, do you really think Adam is third party? I don't. Plus, talking about town in third person like that is totally a scum slip. | ||
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Damn. | ||
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Then tomorrow we lynch the active scum. I'll duel his ass. | ||
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Not impressive. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:20 The Macho Man wrote: i was completly ok with double lynch as well so i dont really see a problem we should only worry about acro at endgame imo. He has shown no scum traits he is active he cares about the lynch that is not scummy and there is no way he should be the candidate tomorrow. I showed you exactly how he doesn't care about the lynch. ... | ||
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Yet he's still pushing him as third party instead of overzealous town, like I've come to read him as. What is his motivation to do this as town? Why is he stuck on the third party thing? It makes no fucking sense. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:23 Acrofales wrote: Oh, I really did. Toward the end there's no way I would have accepted an Adam only lynch. Keirathi only was okay, but I clearly cared enough to incessantly push for my own read, which was kill both a scum AND a third party. You specifically tried to stop people from voting Keirathi, I showed it in the fucking case. Now you're straight up lying. Mafia. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:25 Oatsmaster wrote: This is a difference in opinion and that does not make Acro scummy in anyway. Remember last game, Oats? Just sheep me. | ||
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Whatever, you guys waste your time trying to kill unreadable newbies, I'll be catching mafia. | ||
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It's him or me. Pick me first, I don't care, but if I die you lynch him after. | ||
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Have faith, lynch scum. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:34 zarepath wrote: Who are the unreadable newbies you're discussing -- Syl and Dieno? Or are you saying that this whole game is full of unreadable newbies and therefore a waste of time or something? There's some context I'm missing. @yamato Both of them have meta of looking scummy as town. It's not a good defense, but I am less convinced of either of them than I am of my own fucking scum read that is fucking obvious. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:37 Oatsmaster wrote: Yeah but Acro is not keirathi. Do you think that dueling acro after the night is over will result in anything other than you getting insta hammered after seeing this reaction? Yep. Because he's mafia. Balls, I have them. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:38 Alderan wrote: It seems too obvious. Me and Acro fought about the double lynch for fucking 60 hours. Would he push that hard if he was scum? And for clarification, my read Acro is leaning mafia, but I think Dieno is more clearly scum. What other choice does he have? He doesn't have the balls to lynch the mafia he proclaims from the rooftops. But he invents a crackpot theory about a third party and THAT he is certain of. It's just bullshit. The fact that people are falling for it is pathetic. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:39 thrawn2112 wrote: how about we all insta duel right at deadline and see who cares enough to show up ........ yamato there is no point in insta-dueling, especially considering how we have yet to hear from dieno at all so instead of being an asshole about it you should try to convince people that acro is scum That's what I'm doing Read the thread. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:41 Oatsmaster wrote: Um I think you forgot that assuming there wasnt a majority on the duelers. THEY BOTH GET LYNCHED. THEREFORE ACRO's SCUMREAD GETS LYNCHED. That's exactly the defense he is proposing, but if you could read my case, you would see that he isn't interested in Keirathi dying that much at all. His arguments are for Adam dying, not for Keir. You can't look at what he's typing, you have to look at what he's doing, which is not lynching scum. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:41 zarepath wrote: Honestly, Acro looks way more town for his double-lynch idea than the people who adopted his double-lynch strat -- iamp and Thrawn. Mafia must have started the day thinking they could protect Keirathi, and the least committing switch they could make would be to go to a double-lynch. And honestly, what looks more scummy -- making a case that somebody is a 3P and therefore we should double-lynch on Day 1, or actually believing and agreeing with it with very little justification? Problem is, I am far more convinced of iamp or thrawn being town than I am of Acro. | ||
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Don't try to theorize what happened before finding the mafia. Find the mafia, then figure out what they were doing. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:51 Acrofales wrote: Show me one moment in this game. A single moment anywhere after D1 started where I did NOT want Keir dead. I just played against a really good bus, where two scum had each other from day 1 as red reads. Don't act like this is the first time it would have ever happened. | ||
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On March 01 2013 01:54 Acrofales wrote: This isn't an argument, it's a baseless accusation inventing bullshit to paint me as scum. In lalaland the sheep are blue. I have therefore proven that sheep CAN be blue. Sheep MUST be blue. It's a non-sequitur. Go fish. You're good at arguing Too bad I have already proven you're mafia, and you can't refute it, because it's with words you typed! You make it too easy. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:02 Oatsmaster wrote: We did. It isnt enough to convince anyone but thrawn that acro is scum No, you didn't. You argued with stuff I already refuted in my case. | ||
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I want to see it. You scumhunt on them, and while you're doing that, I'll make my case for you being mafia. Town can decide between you and another scummy looking person instead of just killing you. | ||
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On March 01 2013 04:54 Acrofales wrote: Yamato: how about this plan. You don't duel me at dawn. You duel me at high noon (my time) [unparsable timestamp format] IF I haven't dueled someone before that time. That way you get your wish: me in a duel AND we have some time to think. I'm going to be drunk by then, in all serious likelihood. I may or may not duel you, depending on how I feel about what you've done between now and then. If you think Dieno is mafia, I want more detailed analysis from you on the subject. I played a part in lynching him in Parallel when he was fairly useless as town, and barely scumhunted at all. I see very little difference between his play that game and this game. As I said before, Sylencia is very similar. Useless as town, very sheepish, not proactive. There needs to be more proof than "they're not contributing" for me to go all goo-goo eyed at them. | ||
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read from you on someone | ||
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You're basically the parrot on his shoulder. | ||
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You may be right on Dieno I reread his igrok filter from Parallel, and it seems he is far from useless there. We shall see. | ||
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Have to make a decision quick. To duel Acro, or not to duel Acro? WIFOM that shot. | ||
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Maybe I should duel Acro | ||
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On March 01 2013 05:48 Acrofales wrote: Not that strange. Everybody thinks he's town. He's active, and he's making sense. Not a strange kill at all. Lol, what a weird fucking reaction to an NK. | ||
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Like, you can't post any more reads without reading that. | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:35 Acrofales wrote: You may actually be onto something with Yamato. I completely missed the post where he said he wanted Keir dead. Yamato: why did your reads flip 180º degrees when Adam dueled Keirathi, instead of Thrawn doing it? Because I didn't agree with the decision. Pretty fucking clear in my filter, bro. | ||
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People were telling me not to before, but if you guys are going to be stupid, let me show you who is actually mafia. Right now I see a lot of nothing going on. | ||
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On March 01 2013 07:49 Hapahauli wrote: Going page-by-page. I'll get to it when I get to it. Hapa confirmed mafia. /sarcasm zzzzz | ||
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inches from the duel button. Claiming town on that basis is completely bullshit. | ||
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You guys are most likely right about him, and I feel like Sylencia is most likely town of the two. While lurky and useless is Syl's town meta, it is not Dieno's so he can die. As a side note I'm pretty sure Hapa is mafia, now, and much less sure of Acro. | ||
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On March 02 2013 01:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Yamato, actually why is Hapa scum more than before? IMO he has only gotten townier. I would like to hear you about it though. Activity level, effort in the game, concern with lynch periods. All of it is low for town Hapa. | ||
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Dieno needs to die. If he's not mafia, I will personally be surprised at how little effort he has put into this game. | ||
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I'll duel tomorrow and prove it. Give me Acro, I will dismantle him. Hapa, too. I think they are the likely mafia here. | ||
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Tomorrow I find mafia, guaranteed. Too tired/drunk to do analysis tonight. Tomorrow, before the deadline and after, I will be dropping my reads on the players left in the game. | ||
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If I'm mafia, why do I make the case at night, see people generally agree with it, but then not follow through, and instead tell my weakest teammate to call a duel instead? It doesn't make much sense. Mafia is weak/not here. I no longer think Acro is truly mafia unless Hapa is not, but I will explain that tomorrow. Hapa is the best fit, IMO, to the rest of this mafia team. It's figuring out the last member that might prove difficult. | ||
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This is hilarious. You guys kill my motivation to play. | ||
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But whatever, tomorrow at dawn I will duel Hapa and we can lynch mafia. You guys are silly and think I'm mafia, so I'll duel someone and you can lynch me if it pleases you. I'm getting tired of arguing with people anyway. | ||
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When all they did all game was argue at me that I shouldn't duel the people I wanted lynched So let's do it Balls out. | ||
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In that time, I will build my case on Hapa and provide an analysed read of everyone in the game | ||
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What I know of Snarfs comes from my experience playing against him in Nomination, where he was mafia and I was town. In that game, he was lurky, tunnelish, and detached from town. He wasn't aggressive in pursuit of his reads, and was overall ridiculously easy to catch. His mafia play is not strong, and the strongest tell is how little he cared about what was going on in the game. So let's have a look at his filter and compare, does this Snarfs seem like the mafia Snarfs from last game, and if not, what tells can we pick up on to ascertain his alignment? On February 26 2013 04:38 Snarfs wrote: Update: Up to page 20 now and I would kill Hapa solely based on his reasoning for backing off on iamp. Didn't make any sense (others have said it) because iamp didn't change at all. Also, I didn't like this line from thrawn: It seems like a really weird mindset. Scared to attack... should be more like "pressure" or why would you back off... not "scared to attack" - that seems to be attempting to incite Oats as opposed to get a read on him. full quote: Going through last few pages now. His first analysis post of the game, and indeed one of the first few posts in his filter. Here he immediately displays traits that conflict with my view of his mafia play. He is scumhunting early, and on many different people. What we need to know for the future is how he pushes those reads. On February 26 2013 04:50 Snarfs wrote: Also adding this so I don't forget later: Right up until page 20 when a few more people showed up in the game, lots of talk was on Hapa but Corazon completely ignored that discussion and went after Oats, if I recall correctly. I'm a little rusty on how to interpret that, but it seemed noteworthy. On February 26 2013 05:07 Snarfs wrote: And I'm surprised that your response to me doesn't include thoughts on hapa. Please entertain me? On February 26 2013 05:35 Snarfs wrote: Yea, I saw that. It just felt weird when hapa was a big focus that you didn't mention him at the time (other than to say you were going to look into it) so I made a note of it. Since marv and yamato seem pretty happy with you so far though, I'm not going to really push you on this one since it's not a big priority and would probably just derail things. As I said, just making a note of things. This is how he follows his read on Corazon. While one may interpret this as scum wavering in his reads, I think it is quite clear what he was considering and why. It also shows townie traits in that he is not tunneling in his reads as he was last game, and is interacting with town on a consistent enough basis to be believable in changing his reads. On February 26 2013 07:40 Snarfs wrote: As of now, I'd support a Keirathi/Hapa duel. I need to read more from thrawn as it's still just a weird feeling about him, nothing concrete. I haven't read yamato's case on him yet, it was a bit too long and I didn't have time. I agree Dein also looks flimsy but these two are my biggest concerns. Especially Keirathi's "catch up on the thread" followed by essentially mimicing + buddying marv: Here he supports his Hapa read, and provides his read on Keirathi, with about as much analysis as was available to him. While mafia did indeed bus Keirathi somewhat, it is still noteworthy that he takes his time to justify this read instead of just throwing it out there. It's solid, town play, and nothing at all that indicates a mafia bus. On February 26 2013 08:20 Snarfs wrote: Keirathi's filter is shorter and easier to pick things out of. He made it clear he was going to look at the thread and perform analysis, but then didn't when noone pushed him for it. I guess, like marv said though, he could just be away... just the fact that he took time to create that one kinda terrible post though... I dunno, I don't like it. It was actually thrawn's swap between thinking iamp was scum then not scum then back to scum that I kinda thought was indecisive and towny... not well thought-out and planned like I'd expect from mafia. Clarity, openness, not tunneled. These types of posts, and the ones before, led to my town read on Snarfs. This is how I formed my early opinion of him, and we'll see how that play develops in the lynch cycles. On February 27 2013 04:38 Snarfs wrote: I think that people are being blinded by the unexpectedness of Adam's action (specifically Yamato and Corazon). Yes, it was rash. But it was rash for both town and scum. Plus, look at town sentiment at the time the duel was called. At the time of his action it felt like people wanted to see Keir hang. Then, you have Keir essentially egging Adam on, by saying things like Adam would never have to prove that he was serious about dueling people. None of this changes the fact that until Keir was called out for his terrible night 0 play, he was one of the scummiest. He had claimed he was going to catch up with the thread and all he came back with was essentially an echo of marv. I'm sticking with my own read on this one. Adam looked like he was someone who could be egged on from his first statement and I think Keir took advantage of that. That being said, I'm not laying my vote down right now. We need all the discussion time we can get so let's not be too quick to hit that majority. Hold it against me though, if I come back and vote Adam without any reasoning. Here's his stance on the day 1 duel. Adam more likely town, Keirathi more likely scum, backing up his read from earlier. He also takes the time to argue against my reaction to Adam, which is a townie thing to do at this time, as mafia have nothing to gain from asserting that an aggressive player like me is going about things incorrectly. Really, this post reeks of townieness. The lack of a vote is not enough to discredit his real stance. On February 27 2013 04:57 Snarfs wrote: Actually, the more I think of it, the more opposed I am. Why would we kill two people when almost assuredly one is not scum. We just need to be better town than to resort to double lynch. Plus, he's not an idiot. Also of note is his interaction with me about his thought process on the Sylencia/Keirathi/Adam dynamic: On February 27 2013 15:44 Snarfs wrote: You're not following me. If I believe that Sylencia is mafia. And I believe that Sylencia wants Adam dead. And I DON'T believe that Sylencia is busing Adam. ----------------------------------------------------- Then I should conclude that Adam is town. Corazon is missing one of these. That's all I'm saying and trying to figure out why. Aggressiveness, obvious emotional behavior. Here again, I reaffirmed my town read on Snarfs, because this is not how mafia react in general. These are town tells. Through day 1, and after the duel, there is ZERO reason to think he's mafia, and all the reasons in the world to think him town. His vote was also a turning point in the day, as after that Keirathi got lynched rather quickly. So how does this go on to day 2? QUOTE]On March 01 2013 18:04 Snarfs wrote: Ya. I think Dieno's the right lynch here. I want to hear more from Sylencia, but Dieno's case on him just seems way too fake. Pretty much everything Dieno's said seems fake.[/QUOTE] Again, he's on the mafia wagon very early in the day. There's no reason to think he's mafia aside from his activity which apparently stems from what seem to be legitimate time constraints. Any case on him will go nowhere, because Snarfs is almost assuredly town. That's all there is to that. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Someone shoot me a name. I'm having problems picking people. I'm saving Hapa for last, so anyone else is fine. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I have never played with him before, and I generally don't read games from people I didn't play in, so meta is no part of my read on Zare, it's all on tells/reads. His early play is all tunnel, all Oats, all the time. It's not worth diving into because someone from either alignment could pick on Oats, when he is either alignment, and drum up enough believable shit to seem like scumhunting. So it's all basically not alignment indicative. On February 26 2013 01:54 zarepath wrote: Yamato's thoughts on Hapa: Yamato's point that Hapa calls Cora out for "woe is me" is a null point at best, imo. Others (Sylencia) railed on him for it, Hapa encouraged him to play better. However, Hapa calling out Cora for trying to be a dick to Sylencia does seem a little unnecessary... to be honest, if I were scum, I would be stoking Cora's coals all game, and I can see Hapa's interactions with Cora being somewhat like that. However, the quote Yamato pulls where he calls out Oats for his two reads (Cora/Mav) seemed like a pretty pro-town response. I find Thrawn's switch on iamp to be much more interesting and in a much higher need of justification. After Yamato calls him out, Thrawn doesn't continue to pursue iamp but instead switches to Acro, based off of agreeing with someone else. His points about Acro's Hapa/Thrawn dichotomy aren't strong points (as Marv pointed out). Honestly, far scummier to me than either of these is Sylencia. While it's true our contributions are certainly in the same range right now, I wasn't here at all yesterday, while Sylencia was there right at the beginning and then disappeared. While he was there, all he did was stoke Cora's flames, speculate about a third party (because that's super helpful), and "interact" with Adam by mentioning some setup talk. It's true that others did a good amount of setup and policy talk at the beginning, but they went from there; Sylencia has disappeared and until he reappears, it looks very scummy to me in the face of what he DID contribute. This is the first post I would consider to be worth reading in Zare's filter. He takes a VERY noncommittal stance on Hapa, and sets himself up to push Thrawn/Sylencia as his reads. I, for one, have the belief that both of these people are town, now, so looking back it seems weird. These two might have been easy targets for mafia to pick on, because of the general thread sentiment against them. What is most weird is that he comments on Hapa but arrives at no real conclusion, which could mean more if Hapa's flip is mafia, as I think. So what about his Duel 1 stance? On February 26 2013 23:35 zarepath wrote: I can't believe this happened. This seems far from the best duel we could have set up today. Thrawn switches his suspicions YET AGAIN: And then he bounces from hapa/acro to FOR SURE wanting to duel... Keirathi? But not to the point of ACTUALLY dueling him... just to the point of asking what OTHER people think about him dueling him. And his case came down to Keirathi only having a case against Thrawn based on meta... but isn't that, like, every single person in the thread? Everyone is surprised at Thrawn's performance this game based on his meta. Why isn't Snarf's tenuous Thrawn case scummier than Keirathi's? So why Keirathi? Why all the bravado about volunteering to be a duelist? No townie should want to be a duelist unless they feel super confident in their read -- at which point, they just ##Duel, not ask "DAE think my latest/greatest soft read is scum???" And in the end, he doesn't even have to do it. Thrawn made out like a BANDIT with this duel. I know I should be talking about adam/kier right now, but HOLY COW so many people got out of this one super well, including all of the lurkers/low contributors. All Sylencia has to do is vote and justify it; he doesn't have to forward unique reads on anybody but the two people. We could have spent 24 hours testing low contributors and seeing who their reads are when it has to be out of 11 other people, instead of just out of a pool of 2. Our ability to gain information has been CRIPPLED by a premature duel. We CANNOT do this again tomorrow. Marv was killed for his analysis, and his number one scum read was Thrawn.... and he's not even up for a duel? Even Thrawn himself seemed fatalistic about it (which isn't very townie IMO), and the fact he was "rescued" from this duel super early in the day is incredibly anti-town. His first reaction is a bunch of nothing about how convinced he is that thrawn is mafia, and that this is horrible. While it is emotional, which is a town tell, it is annoying that he manages to say nothing about the alignment of either of the actual duelists. Still, I can see a town player making this response. On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam. The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. Here he takes a similar stance to me, which I can see is scummy. The problem is, I'm not mafia. He may very well be. Calling Adam anti-town and softdefending Keirathi is a very weird thing to do in hindsight. So what's the difference between myself and Zare? On February 28 2013 00:38 zarepath wrote: I'm becoming more and more convinced that Adam isn't scum, mostly because I haven't yet found a satisfying answer to why Scum Adam would do what he did, unless it was to save Thrawn from having to duel, at which point the whole thing is a stupid association case. So I went into Keirathi's filter with some more open eyes. I hate first post town claims. Remember, thrawn wasn't on-board witht he "two scummy people duel" idea. He said making all those policies was pointless. So thrawn, why exactly do you want Hapa to duel? Do you think he is scum, or town? What is your ideal scenario for a duel? A strong townie vs a scum suspect? Or two scum suspects against each other? He gets on Thrawn AFTER everyone else has already. This is actually pretty late in the thread. I don't like that Keirathi's first "real" contribution is piling on top of Thrawn with everyone else and not actually contributing much, just asking Fake Interrogator Questions. On February 26 2013 10:50 Keirathi wrote: It wasn't a pointless question (and thrawn never answered it either). Thrawn came out and said "hey guys, forget all this policy stuff, its pointless. Just play!" Then, despite having no other mention of Hapa, as soon as other people start talking about him, thrawn was like "oh yea, hapa should duel tomorrow!" There's not even a read in there, since he took no stance on who *SHOULD* be dueling. It was just jumping onto thread sentiment with no thoughts towards Hapa from himself. After Thrawn again. Marv has been vocal about Thrawn's scumminess all thread, and it's basically the only thing that Keir is going after. It looks like sheeping. On February 27 2013 03:58 Keirathi wrote: I thought it was just a stupid move. Arbitrarily, I think it was scummy because he cut off all discussion about other candidates, and felt like just straight OMGUS because I was trying to get some discussion out of something I viewed as scum motivated. So was it "just a stupid move," or "scummy?" At this point everyone has declared it a very stupid move, so that's an easy sheep opinion to have, but also calling him scummy -- you either think he's scummy or stupid town. Then he had the gall to say that he dueled because I was trying to back out of a half-assed scum read? I feel like this is too emotional... phrases like "he had the gall" just seems too whiny to be substantive. And for two, what happened to his scum read of Corazon earlier on night 0? Oh right, he backed out of it because of further discussion. Hell he even went so far as to say that he wasn't a "tunnel machine" and that he pulls out of tunnels all th e time. But if I try to get some discussion about something that I view as scummy to see if I'm just being paranoid, he gets all holy roller and pulls the trigger on the duel. This isn't a case, it's whining. The situation reminds me a lot of GSL 3 (i think?). I saw something that I genuinely viewed as scummy and brought it to the thread. I took a lot of flak for it, but the difference is people were willing to discuss it with me while they were calling me scum. And as I talked it out more, and got some other perspective views, I changed my read. Why is he bringing this up? What's the motivation? He's basically saying that this is exactly like the time he was town, except only if Adam HADN'T dueled him, and if his scum read was wrong and needed to evolve. That's absolutely not a case on Adam, because in this meta reference he was wrong about his scum read, and Adam is his scum read in this case. Honestly the only connection I can see being relevant in the context of this post is the fact that he was town before. And bringing up a meta case like that, just for the sake of looking more town, in the middle of a post that is supposedly supposed to be your thoughts on Adam, seems scummy. I don't like that he doesn't make a case on Adam and is only whining about being dueled. And I also don't like that he hasn't made a case on anyone/anything else SINCE being dueled. On February 27 2013 03:48 Keirathi wrote: My reads haven't changed. I still think thrawn is likely scum because of his jumping around following thread sentiments, and I still see possible scum motivation in the Adam thing that I was trying to talk about. I'll write up some more later this evening when I get home, but I don't think an hour is enough time right now. It's been a night and he hasn't posted his reads. It's convenient that NONE of his reads have changed... but he didn't even HAVE reads on anybody other than those two people. Sure he still thinks what he thought about them, but he literally hasn't thought ANYTHING about anybody else, and hasn't even bothered to think ANYTHING since? On February 26 2013 16:03 Keirathi wrote: I'd appreciate it if someone could look at my points about Adam and give some comments other than "lol bad". Wanted people to talk about Adam, really wanted it bad. On February 26 2013 14:49 Keirathi wrote: I would be fine dueling thrawn. Why would town be fine with dueling? It's not like Keirathi even had a great case on Thrawn. Although, at the same time, why would scum be fine with dueling? Like others have said, NOT wanting to duel looks worse if you're scum. I don't know how to read this, but it's a very clear statement of intent for somebody whose ONLY read has been Thrawn, and hasn't even built a real strong case on him. ##Vote Keirathi Adam isn't scum. I just don't see the scum motivation for what he did at all. [/QUOTE] How hard his read on Keir goes in the other direction when thread sentiment changed. While my focus was on how my read on Adam changed, his focus is the less-believable version of this instance, that Keirathi somehow got scummier after the duel, which is bogus. This post smells like a bus, all over. This type of play leads me to believe Zare might well be mafia. I'm actually leaving unexpectedly on very short notice, so I'll quickly give my thought on Acro. I'm not going to filter dive him anyway, as he has 16 pages of crap that I don't care to read. Townie points: general activity, reads, and overall attitude. Scum points: covered in my case before; he doesn't push his reads all that well and is quite odd. He may or may not be mafia, it's hard to tell. What really worries me is Marv's take on Acro: On February 26 2013 07:59 marvellosity wrote: Acrofales - saying plenty of the right things, can't remember the various times it's happened, the most recent is questioning zare/corazon on how sylencia was mislynched for being useless last game. This dude is good mafia though which is why my read isn't stronger. That's all I have time for. Going gambling, probably won't be around for the deadline. If people want me in a duel, so be it. At the earliest time I have, I will duel someone if that is the case. Otherwise, good luck hunting mafia. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I'm flattered you guys think I could do what I've done this game as mafia, but for real, I am town. Will be posting that case on Hapa I promised sometime soon. Or.... Right now. On February 27 2013 04:13 Hapahauli wrote: Yes and yes. None of my top scumreads are on the block right now. This is Hapa's official stance on the lynch day 1. He won't pick one and call them a bonafide scum read, he'll just call Adam town and lynch Keirathi based off that. This reeks of being extremely non-committal and basically just following thread sentiment, which was against Keirathi before the duel and only slightly shifted after the duel was called for. Town Hapa has balls. This Hapa does not. On February 28 2013 15:54 Hapahauli wrote: My full proposition for tomorrow is this: I'd like Dieno and Sylencia to duel, unless one of them starts showing some significant townieness. I'd also like to double-lynch 'em by default and leave it up to them to prove that they're town individually. If one of them does, I'd add Corazon to the list. As for HOW we should go about that, well you can only start by asking nicely. If that doesn't work, we can probably force one of them to duel the other by threatening to have Adam duel one of them (which is basically a vigi-shot given that there's no sane way that Adam's scum). As for who I'd duel myself, I wouldn't duel period. I think my voting actions speak for themselves yesterday. I get that I'm less active than usual, but it should be obvious that I'm playing to town objectives. Nor do I get the sense that there's any support for me dueling tomorrow (besides iamp anyway). If you're asking for a top scumread - it's hard to differentiate between Dieno/Sylencia since they've both played nearly identical games. Put a gun to my head, and I'd say Dieno on the basis that Sylencia has a history of being lurky as town in some of his newbie games, whereas Dieno's town performance in CT was pretty darn active. His stance that he never changes for the day 2 duel. Of note is that mafia dieno magically called for this very duel after Hapa posted this, and Hapa got to push this very agenda; one of killing both Dieno and Sylencia. Again, he takes no strong stances regarding the lynch. On March 01 2013 09:29 Hapahauli wrote: Oh Dieno pulled the trigger. That went easier than expected. Anyway, by default I want you both dead. It's up to both of you to indvidiaully convince me that I'm wrong and that you're town. Extremely odd coincidence, IMO, that Dieno calls for this duel. Hapa's response is also odd, that he felt the need to comment on it. Almost as if he knew it was going to happen, and planned this stance in advance... On March 01 2013 14:36 Hapahauli wrote: Dieno. Pretty sure I mentioned that before. No vote backs this proclamation up. This is the problem with allowing people to sit on their asses with the "double lynch" stance, it lets mafia look townie while really doing nothing. I did a good job explaining this in my Acro case, and what Hapa is doing here is nearly a carbon copy, only the effort he puts into it is pathetically small, and I don't think town Hapa would avoid taking a side in this race. On March 03 2013 08:26 Hapahauli wrote: Anyway Yamato, this whole "HAPA IS MAFIA OMG" is nearly identical to the shit you pulled in British Mini Mafia. You were Mafia, and suddenly a switch snapped and you were foaming out of the mouth that Mr.Cheesecake was scum beyond all rationality. This is a bold-faced lie. I, as mafia, am tunnelly and completely irrational, because that's how people think I am as town. Have I played that way this game? My reads have certainly changed; it's basically what people have been attacking me for this whole game. While you may not believe the reasons I give for these changes, the fact remains that I have explained them as well as they needed explaining. For Hapa to compare this game to British is absurd. He's drumming up a scum read on me because thread sentiment is turning against me. I want to duel Hapa today. If I'm in a duel, I'm dueling him, or someone is dueling me. Let it happen. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
He and Zare probably last two mafia. Everyone else is LIKELY to be town. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 04 2013 03:29 Adam4167 wrote: ##Vote: Yamato Yamato is scum for reasons previously discussed. Hapa is town for reasons previously discussed. And the Hapa = Town reasoning is...? No comment on the case you said I wasn't going to build? This is just lazy. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 04 2013 04:28 cDgCorazon wrote: @Yamato: Explain: -Your 180 on Acro -Your unnecessarily long town read on Snarfs (basically, did you need to do that?) -Your ambiguous read on Zare (is he scummy or not?) -Your feeling to just duel Hapa without allowing him to refute your arguments. Please and thank you. Acro's OVERALL play is pro-town. His OVERALL play and appearance is something that looks very town. The doubts I have about him are things that may or may not indicate that he's mafia, but let me tell you, they are very good heuristics that catch mafia. It's those same heuristics I'm using to put pressure on Hapa. My read is not a 180 completely, but I feel that he is more likely town if Hapa is mafia, which I currently think is the case. Town read on Snarfs was going to be part of a longer analysis of every player in the game. It didn't happen because I had other things pop up, and it's not that important that I analyse all my town reads. That said, his name was thrown around as possible mafia, and my points are good ones for why he is not. Should shut that discussion down before it ever begins to catch on. My read on Zare is not ambiguous, you just can't read. On March 03 2013 18:44 yamato77 wrote: ##Duel Haphauli He and Zare probably last two mafia. Everyone else is LIKELY to be town. All of these points could have been addressed with a look at my filter. You guys are lazy, getting worse. I dueled Hapa because everyone sits with the same sheep reads on these days. We've been playing off reads from N0 for two days. It's time to make stuff happen, and I'm pretty sure he's mafia. If he's town, this will almost assuredly motivate him to prove it, but I don't think he will. There's zero reason to call me mafia for any of this anyway. As I mentioned in my case on Zare, the scummiest thing about me is how I handled the D1 lynch, which was odd from an outsider's perspective. I TRULY WAS surprised at Adam's duel, and that muddled my read on the situation. Also, I TRULY WAS seeing the potential for town Keir in his read on Adam. Ultimately, however, I thought about it more and reached the conclusion that Adam probably wasn't mafia. My vote on Keir was a weakly justified one, because I really just wanted to push a lynch through, but would I have pushed the Keir lynch through for the sake of lynching someone if I was mafia with him? I don't think so. I could have sat on Adam and pushed him while implicitly allowing the double lynch as a result. That's the crux of the situation here, and why people are calling me mafia. Anything else is weak, and very shallow. I believe Hapa is by far scummier than me, as I outlined in my case, and this should undoubtedly prove to you all that I am not all talk and no bite. I've only been hesitant so far because of the thread's initial reaction to these propositions in the past, which was overwhelmingly negative. The unfortunate thing is that Adam is attacking me for being hesitant, and everyone else is attacking me for not being that way, so I'm fucked both ways on this. The better thing to do here is to put some real fath in my read on Hapa and see his flip through. If you guys don't agree with me, fine, but lynching me lazily as is happening now is not good for town. If I get lynched, so be it, but it better not be without SERIOUS discussion on why people think Hapa is town. I, for one, know him capable of playing the way he is right now as mafia. Read Dessert Mini, and compare it to this game, it's quite similar. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
WHAT NOW BITCH | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
| ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Also, your read on Deino was right and mine wrong, so there's that, too. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Stop playing around like I just made this up out of thin air. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Real. Sketch. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Tomorrow people will know I'm town anyway. I'm not that invested in staying alive on this deal, I'm invested in finding mafia, and right now Adam looks insanely ridiculous to come in defending Hapa right now. But he might just be dead wrong about the both of us, so there's that. What is most suspicious is the lack of ANYTHING from Zare. Dude is being called mafia by everyone in the game and he's all kinds of AFK, lol. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Think about why Hapa has a scum read on me. Very conveniently timed. Of course he's not going to stop arguing about it, because to admit defeat here is to die for certain. I'm all for town lynching me so long as one of you has the sack to lynch Hapa tomorrow. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 04 2013 12:34 Hapahauli wrote: I had a scum-read on you before you dueled me Yamato. Don't twist things. Once you figured out I wanted to lynch you. Think about this, mafia Hapa, what is your plan if you get me lynched and I flip town and everyone realizes you actually are mafia? | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 04 2013 12:43 Acrofales wrote: Yamato: if we lynch Hapa and he flips town. Who, other than Zapa is scum? Maybe you, as I once thought. Maybe Corazon, since his balls seem to have gone missing today. Oats I doubt is mafia, because he is always like this. Adam is probably just really wrong, to be honest, and there's no good reason he's mafia. Snarfs is probably town. Covered. Sylencia is also probably town, much for the same reason Adam is. Alderan might be a missing link in here somwhere, too. That guy's disappearing act lately is at mythical proportions. I don't even know what his read on me is, much less the rest of the game. | ||
yamato77
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yamato77
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On March 04 2013 12:52 cDgCorazon wrote: You're the one who was so hasty to duel him. You'd be the first one to deserve a look. Of course if you are so confident Hapa is scum why are you even mentioning the possibilities if he flips town? Are you setting yourself up to bounce back from a mislynch? Acro asked me... -_- | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
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yamato77
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If that's your biggest hangup, we shouldn't be having a problem here. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
It's like you think I'm mafia with Acro or something, which is laughably dumb. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
If you haven't noticed, I still am not completely sure of his alignment. What's the point in this? You and everyone else are calling me scum for how my reads change over the game, it's ridiculous. Stop being so thick-headed and fucking think about the game for a minute. Who has played townier this game between Hapa and I? Me. Do you REALLY think town Hapa would play so passive? Really? And scum Yamato be so... not passive? I don't understand how you manage to convince yourself of these things. You're not a newbie player. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
This is absurd. Do you just not consider the possibility that you're wrong once in a while? I know your ego is MASSIVE and all, but does that thought ever cross your mind? Think about it. Seriously. I HAVE played a townier game than Hapa, and I am damn sure I look a hell of a lot townier than him today. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Acro is town. I am town. I thought Acro was mafia, and was mildly suspicious of him for a while. You dueled someone out of the fucking blue day 1, cutting off all discussion of anyone but you and Keir, who I initially had right. I thought you were mafia mucking up the thread with an easy, quick duel because it seemed premature, BUT I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND LYNCHED MAFIA. I thought Acro might be mafia again, for some very good reasons. I didn't duel him because of the overwhelmingly NEGATIVE response to this idea. Plus, I really did take my time to consider that Dieno might be mafia, and became relatively convinced after rereading Parallel. Again, I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND LYNCHED MAFIA. Come to today. I think Acro being town is MORE likely because of his push toward Dieno, and the fact that Hapa looks like lazy fucking scum. I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND AM GOING TO LYNCH MAFIA. See a pattern here? When I rethink the situation, things become much more clear. You should take a page from my book and consider the game from a different perspective than Acro = mafia. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
You say you've thought about being wrong, but I don't see it. Your "townie points" for Hapa are hilariously weak and mostly association-based, but yet you rate him over me when I've been more involved with town the whole fucking game. I don't know. It's up there as one of the best heuristics, especially when applied to hyper-active townies like Hapa. When he's got a smaller filter than me and less attachment to the thread than me, there's a problem. He may have had the "right" reads, but how much is that really worth? Did he really do anything to get either of Keirathi or Deino lynched? Not really. Sure, he had a vote, but did he ever come in the thread and try to convince people to vote with him? No. Did I? Yes. Yet you give him more town cred than me for the Keirathi lynch. Why? You see what you want to see, which is that I'm mafia. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
If it lets people like Adam see the game in a new light, so be it. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Same shit as day 1 where you pick the town guy and call them anti-town, huh? | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 26 2013 23:53 zarepath wrote: During those 12-16 hours, everyone on the western hemisphere was asleep. Do we really want the most important period of mafia to be done while only half of the town is awake, and not even allow the other half a say? As far as between these two players, I think Adam's ##Duel is the most anti-town thing either of them have done. But I honestly haven't even looked through their filters yet; I just read through the thread, was amazed that this even happened, and went on a rant. So I'll get back to you on that, but I really don't like what Adam did. On February 27 2013 01:24 zarepath wrote: Looking through Keirathi's filter, I don't have a full town read on him, but he doesn't look nearly as scummy as Sylencia or Thrawn, and not as suspicious as Dienosore, and certainly not as counterproductive to town goals as Adam. The problem is that only Keirathi and Adam are up for lynch, and while I think three other people are more likely to be scum than either of these two, the question now is: Who is scummier? And while most of Adam's scummy traits can also be attributed to the Insane Town persona that is chasing him, he still has far more scummy traits than Keirathi does. If there weren't nightly scum kills, I would want to no-lynch. This is a bad pairing; the only people who wanted Keirathi in a duel were Adam and Thrawn, and the only people who wanted Adam in a duel were Adam -- and if Adam is town, then scum. On February 27 2013 12:03 zarepath wrote: @Thrawn: It's pretty clear why I didn't vote for Adam -- I explain it right at the end of my post. Because this format works off instant majority and not a time frame, there is no way to unvote out of a majority should something big come up that shakes everything up. I would rather wait for everyone to chime in before I place my actual vote, because if I contribute to an instant majority, I basically let half of town get out of this entire cycle without having to make a stake on anything. So yes, my vote will be on Adam, but not yet. I think these quotes tell a different story. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Lol. Scum. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I doubt Hapa flipping mafia would change Adam's mind about me anyway, and I don't really want to be in another one of these things. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
I will say this in advance, Acro did an excellent job noting exactly how activity IS alignment indicative for Hapa, so you can't just brush that argument away flippantly. His activity is a sign of his involvement with town, which is a very strong tell for Hapa. Also of note is something Marv said in the obs QT for Dessert; that good mafia players don't do overtly scummy things, and that players like himself and Hapa often bus their teammates/are bussed because of the nature of their town play. Anyway I'll respond to that refutation of my case tomorrow between classes. I just got off work and wanted to comment. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
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yamato77
11589 Posts
I'm in here arguing over this stuff, and he's off doing god knows what, but hardly ever involved in discussion even when his ass is going to die. Hm. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On February 25 2013 10:10 marvellosity wrote: Ah yes. The legends of TL Mafia - Foolishness, syllogism, sandroba, Palmar, Adam, and yamato. My bad If you vote him now, we can prove Marv wrong about us. Don't you want to prove Marv wrong? | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Hapa flips town 6 - 2 tomorrow. Hapa flips mafia 7 -1 tomorrow. Zare - Alderan should be the duel tomorrow, no questions asked, either way Hapa flips. Hopefully one of them proves to be town, if Hapa is mafia. If he's town, both of them have a good shot at being mafia together, honestly. Regardless, best case scenario is the game is over, all mafia dead. Worst case scenario is 4 - 2 mylo after this, with 5 -1 being the MOST LIKELY scenario, as having zero mafia out of the group of Hapa/Zare/Alderan seems highly unlikely. Cora - Acro should be after that. If it's MYLO, or there's new analysis from a mafia flip, this might change, but it is how I would play it out today. If two of those three flip town and the other looks really town, it means a player we've been ignoring for a while is likely mafia, so my bet is one of these two, seeing as neither would have been involved in any duels at this point and been under serious pressure. If we're at 5 - 1, the worst case scenario is 3 -1 the following day, and this duel likely gives us a serious look into the alignment of both of these players. At that point, it would highly depend on who is still alive, and who is not. Hard to call. You and I SHOULD be dead by then. Most likely 3 -1 MYLO is Snarfs/Sylencia/Oats/Cora, IMO, but you never know.At any rate, 3 - 1 MYLO should be a no lynch, easy to enforce by policy lynching anyone who calls for a duel, as it only helps mafia and hurts town. 2 - 1 LYLO is a coinflip, but by then town should have enough info to pick out who is most likely mafia. 4 - 2 MYLO could also be a no lynch, but I feel like 3 - 2 LYLO is easier to lose, and 4 - 2 MYLO is easier to hit mafia than the 3 - 1 / 2 - 1 counterparts, so I would take my chances with Cora/Acro. Oats/Snarfs both highly green to me, so that is how I made this assumption. Sylencia/You also unlikely to be mafia, but it's a LYLO possibility that one of you might be mafia and used the duel mechanic to clear your name. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Cora/Alderan/Acro/Zare Mafia is among you. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
@Marv I told you so. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
They should duel. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 06 2013 00:36 zarepath wrote: EBWOP: Also, I thought Acro looked super townie to you yesterday. What changed your mind to put him in the pool of possibilities? More town than Hapa was my official position, and less likely mafia if Hapa was mafia. But I doubt Cora is mafia, and I doubt scum would be all-in hard-defending like you yesterday. Oats/Snarfs/Syl/Adam are high on my town list. Pick the low-hanging fruit, and you get you four. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Alderan or Acro. Do analysis. Take stances. I'm having trouble making sense of either filter. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
On March 06 2013 00:52 Acrofales wrote: I'll make it easier. Zare I'll filter him and give you a case when I get home, but I have fairly strong reasons for pretty much everybody else being town, and fairly strong reasons for Zapa being scum. Combine the two and the conclusion is pretty obvious. You think Alderan is confirmed town or something? | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
Anyway, we'll see tomorrow. His not posting is now absolutely inexcusable, so yeah, I am frustrated to say the least. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
When I wake up tomorrow, I honestly want to just see Alderan like insta-dueled by Zare or perhaps Acro. Anything else is wasting time. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
YAY! GG guys, I had a good time. Will look forward to the future when I don't talk myself out of mafia reads day 1. | ||
yamato77
11589 Posts
02-28-2013 11:53 AM ET (US) /m85 not in the slightest edit: although perhaps I'm doing yamato a disservice. But I still really don't think so. yamato gets crazy convinced someone is mafia all the time. Now that he was right a couple of times in Nomination, it's made him even more disgustingly certain than normal. I will say this for yamato - he's learnt how to back off his scumreads. Let's hope he manages to do the same here. On March 04 2013 16:34 yamato77 wrote: Think about this possiblity: Acro is town. I am town. I thought Acro was mafia, and was mildly suspicious of him for a while. You dueled someone out of the fucking blue day 1, cutting off all discussion of anyone but you and Keir, who I initially had right. I thought you were mafia mucking up the thread with an easy, quick duel because it seemed premature, BUT I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND LYNCHED MAFIA. I thought Acro might be mafia again, for some very good reasons. I didn't duel him because of the overwhelmingly NEGATIVE response to this idea. Plus, I really did take my time to consider that Dieno might be mafia, and became relatively convinced after rereading Parallel. Again, I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND LYNCHED MAFIA. Come to today. I think Acro being town is MORE likely because of his push toward Dieno, and the fact that Hapa looks like lazy fucking scum. I REALIZED I WAS WRONG, AND AM GOING TO LYNCH MAFIA. See a pattern here? When I rethink the situation, things become much more clear. You should take a page from my book and consider the game from a different perspective than Acro = mafia. I SAW THE LIGHT. | ||
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