EPTGoing to test my Day 1 scum-finding skills
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVII
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zarepath
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Going to test my Day 1 scum-finding skills | ||
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My dreams are coming true | ||
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On February 08 2013 05:03 cDgCorazon wrote: Cause WIFOM is used in a case based off of possibilities, not fact. Scum would use it to look like they are scumhunting, and to confuse the town (which you did last game as town). If I roll scum, I wouldn't want to use WIFOM because you'd call it a scum tell. So clearly if I end up using WIFOM, I will be town. | ||
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Can we have an "Important Posts" section in the OP, with a link to the beginning of the game? The pre-game banter has ruined filters and it's going to be tough to navigate this thread as it gets longer. | ||
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Of the following, how scummy do these people look to you, and can you rank them? geript, corazon, sn0_man, WaveofShadow, Mandalor, and glurio Thanks in advance. | ||
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Although Sn0_Man has posted minimal contribution and his longest post is about the English language, it looks as though he went to bed, so I am not going to look too deeply at him until he comes back. It is certainly still up to him to contribute as of yet; however, I am kind of in the same boat, so I can't fault him for that just yet. Kindly explain why Mandalor is so high on your list; I don't see much scum in his few posts, and wouldn't mind clarification. Excusing warbaby as a bad townie and soft-attacking Mocsta and Sn0_Man is all that glurio's done. I think he's in mine and Sn0_Man's boat right now -- wait and see, in other words. Wave of Shadow, though, is a whole other matter. His first post: On February 11 2013 09:40 WaveofShadow wrote: /confirm I thought we had to wait until 20:00 but I guess since others are posting... I'm completely against RNG lynch I'd much rather to lurker if possible if we need a Day 1 strategy. Mocsta I saw in a game you were recently in (i'm kinda busy to check right now) someone suggested RNG lynch and everyone immediately dumped all over him for scum. Why should this game be any different? Theory talk, and then soft-calls Mocsta scum, the person who has at that point looked the most Mayorly. Notice that he doesn't really follow up on this. Second post: On February 11 2013 11:21 WaveofShadow wrote: As far as I'm concerned, early game banter based on taking offense to others cheap shots or picking apart grammar is useless and should just be ignored. I'm fairly sure at this point enough people have declined the RNG vote so the topic should be dropped by everyone. Can the scumhunting begin now? A few things here. WaveofShadow takes upon himself the mantle of being the Reasonable Break-It-Up! Guy, even though people have already moved on. It's not Being Town, it's Acting Town. Also note the insinuation that nothing in the thread so far has been worthy of contribution -- the scumhunting hasn't started yet, according to him. He simultaneously puts himself up as Pro-Town and everyone before him as Anti-Town. It's all posturing, zero substance. Third post is super scummy: On February 11 2013 11:29 WaveofShadow wrote: Alright, I will begin so that people don't assume I'm just waiting for others to start so that I can dip back into the shadows. We don't have a lot to go on as there are still people in the thread who haven't even posted since the start of D1 (more than half, so no point listing them yet) so I'm going to be ballsy and let Mocsta know that I have my eye on him for filter burying. That being said it's really because it's way too early to have a solid scumread at this point, so unless more people come out of the woodwork (and we can get a soild read on them) I will be voting to lurker lynch D1. Wait -- why is he posting? Only so that people don't assume he wants to dip back into the shadows. The number one motivation for this post is to NOT LOOK SCUMMY, by his own admission. But what about content? He basically says that there is nothing going on and that there's nothing to see here until the lurkers post. Does that sound like a productive Day 1 for town? Hardly. The main thing that's a contribution here is that he has his eye on Mocsta for filter-burying, pretty much the absolutely easiest and most obvious "read" to make in this thread. So in sum, this post contributes nothing and is made solely for the purpose of not looking like mafia. And has he never heard of Mocsta before, or what? (And even though his eye's on him, he says in the same post he's going to vote for a lurker. So there's really not any pressure put on Mocsta if he actually thinks he's scum.) Fourth: On February 11 2013 13:04 WaveofShadow wrote: Yay for active lurking! I have to agree with Mocsta here, at the very least lurker removal D1 can be a useful strategy, but I can't say I'm in favor of removing those who are performing the bare minimum (read: have actual 'qualitative additions,' as geript put it) when there will be scum actively trying to disrupt our hunting efforts. If it comes to pass that those who are performing the bare minimum ARE the scum who are detracting from our efforts, then that's another story, but I feel like we should be slightly more certain of this than a regular lurker lynch, and I would also argue that this kind of thing would have to happen after D1. Once again, making my position very clear: if you are inactive or do not contribute to the hunt D1, then you are my target. Weird theory crap -- I still don't understand if he's saying that lurkers are more likely to be scum or poor contributors. It kinda sounds like both. In the end, he makes his position "very clear." Uh, what? Fifth post, super scummy: On February 11 2013 13:37 WaveofShadow wrote: Put it this way: if there is an extremely strong scumread on someone that is nigh irrefutable, then great, I can get on board. Otherwise LAL, but as I said, we shall see how the day progresses. Also regarding the soft claim (I feel I should address it) wouldn't I say the same thing if I were scum?  Um, if there's an irrefutable scum read on someone, and that's the only time when you'll get on board, there's a term for that -- it's called busing. The last part of the post is the best, though. Did he just call himself scum using WIFOM? And more importantly, why would town ever use WIFOM? As a very wise man who hadn't received his role PM once said: On February 08 2013 05:22 WaveofShadow wrote: Except that WIFOM doesn't get you anywhere more often than not and only serves to muck people up, so why bother using it if town? Sixth post, weird defensiveness against others addressing him: On February 11 2013 13:54 WaveofShadow wrote: I'm trying to say don't look too much into it. There are more important things to be done like scumhunt; determining as to my town alignment should become obvious by my future actions, not by my words. Warbaby, this sure as hell is my town as I'm a part of it and I care about it. I'm not sure where you got the idea that I'm telling or leading people not to think for themselves or that I'm doing something stupid. "Don't look too much into it." "Don't worry, don't read what I say, you'll know that I'm town soon enough, don't even bother thinking about me as mafia." What kind of townie says "don't analyze me in any way, please!"? Also, kind of overemphatic about his town-alignment claim here. Final post: On February 11 2013 14:12 WaveofShadow wrote: Jeez you guys are sensitive. In no way did I insinuate that I am the leader or that I own you guys, nor am I or have I ever bossed anyone around thus far in the game; people need to stop looking for things to be offended about when there is nothing. Makes you look scummy. Alright no more posting until I get something RL-related done but I leave with this final thing. Warbaby, if you are soft-claiming blue, I would have thought you had learned from previous NMM; blue claim is really not a good idea this early into the game. People calling him out means that they are super-sensitive, not that there's something wrong with his posting? And in return, he calls those people scummy, outright, but doesn't back it up. Oh, by the way, has to go to RL now. And his final thought is hopping onto the Warbaby bandwagon, but in kind of a compromised way -- he's not calling him scum, he's insinuating bad blue. In sum Wave of Shadow has done nothing but promote to me the idea that he is scum, and while I can see a warbaby acting the way he has because of stress/pressure of people mislynching two days in a row, there's no town motivation for what Wave of Shadow has posted. ##Vote: WaveofShadow | ||
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zarepath
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I didn't realize that your middle line was null reads. | ||
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On February 12 2013 01:33 Sn0_Man wrote: Regarding the WaveOfShadow case, I see some merit there but I'm still not here to lynch posting players unless more comes up. That's the thing -- he's not posting anymore. | ||
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I also see your very committal vote onto someone who hasn't even posted yet. My vote remains and we'll see how the rest of the day unfolds. | ||
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On February 12 2013 05:59 cDgCorazon wrote: [/b]However, I'll hold off on the WIFOM Eh, go ahead and WIFOM, I can't blame you for it | ||
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zarepath
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Last game Cora and I had together, I laid into him with a massive WIFOM case when we were both town. | ||
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I know who I'm voting for, but want to see the lurkers come out to avoid complicating things down the road. Hopefully the next 12 hours or so will yield some fruit from those trees. | ||
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On February 12 2013 20:09 glurio wrote: Well i agree that my case on sn0 is weak at best. Honestly, i made it because i promised to make one. After reading the filter i didn't find anything too scummy, except his endless posting about lurkers. So yeah, WoS had it right. Also the reason why i didn't vote or FoS sn0. Not sure if massive scum slip or . . . | ||
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From the beginning of my WoS case: On February 12 2013 00:38 zarepath wrote: Firstly, let me add my thoughts to your reads (other than warbaby). Although Sn0_Man has posted minimal contribution and his longest post is about the English language, it looks as though he went to bed, so I am not going to look too deeply at him until he comes back. It is certainly still up to him to contribute as of yet; however, I am kind of in the same boat, so I can't fault him for that just yet. Kindly explain why Mandalor is so high on your list; I don't see much scum in his few posts, and wouldn't mind clarification. Excusing warbaby as a bad townie and soft-attacking Mocsta and Sn0_Man is all that glurio's done. I think he's in mine and Sn0_Man's boat right now -- wait and see, in other words. Wave of Shadow, though, is a whole other matter. Please see the bolded capitals of the first four lines of my case post. Sorry to stress you out, Wave, but you were actually an early town read for me. I saw that a warbaby lynch was becoming inevitable, and I wanted to give scum an alternative bandwagon to see what they would do and made a completely confirmation-biased case (which is apparently pretty easy to make with the first 7 posts of any poster this game). While I have been pretty AFK since I made this case, I've been paying attention to how people reacted to it, especially those who agreed or came on board without actually addressing or picking apart the case. I was hoping for the case to last a little longer, but I don't foresee scum jumping aboard anymore as it's lost some of its steam (and WoS has looked very pro-town), and figured it was time to pull back the curtains and help foster some real dialogue moving forward. I'm going to take this morning to go through and really analyze everyone's reactions, but the two reactions I remember best are warbaby's immediate latching-onto the case without voting, and then geript's vote (which he hasn't unvoted, or evolved his read in any way). I'll have more in five or six hours or so. | ||
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But there's plenty of other stuff in his filter to look at, imo. | ||
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in order of appearance + Show Spoiler + On February 12 2013 00:45 warbaby wrote: FoS WaveofShadow I'm not voting until we've had more time for the remaining lurkers to report in, and Shadow can respond to zarepath. I agree with zarepath that the people actually voting me aren't looking that scummy; compared to those just trawling for a convenient bandwagon. On February 12 2013 00:46 cDgCorazon wrote: Thank you Zare. I liked the points in your analysis for the 3rd and 4th posts. While it's not enough to make me vote for him (and I'd like to see his defense), a lot of the same things could be said about many players (especially with the non scum-hunting). The point that town never uses WIFOM made me laugh (you know why). Maybe you should rethink using WIFOM as a 100% scum tell (yeah it's scummy but if town Zare (from last game) does it why can't other towns do it and not be scum?). On February 12 2013 00:52 Mocsta wrote: Guys im going to bed. zarepath, I am not sure if the start of your post was addressed to me? If so, I had mandalor as null read; he said a few things but until he follows through its all NON-alignment indicative. btw, quite a few decent points in that case; I think some are educated assumptions, and others are really contradictory to ideal town play. Will wait and see what wave has to say for himself before proceeding further. On February 12 2013 01:06 Sevryn wrote: @ zare Thats a very interesting case you made. I think you over looked the fourth post a little bit in that the way it was worded is basically setting up WoS to defend any lurker he doesn't want lynched and any lurker he does want lynched with a line of qualitative additions which could be interpreted any which way. On February 12 2013 01:19 warbaby wrote: EBWOP: Not to say that I won't vote for someone that makes an obvious scumslip D1, but nobody has done that so far (except maybe WoS). On February 12 2013 01:20 Mandalor wrote: I feel like this is the most interesting part of the case. "Don't look much into it". What is that? Townies should be comfortable with others analysing them. In fact, the more townies do that, the less scum will be able to sway them. I don't like his overly town attitude ("my town" etc.) and the fact that (apart from a few weak attacks on Mocsta), he didn't analyse anybody yet. ##FoS: WaveOfShadow On February 12 2013 01:33 Sn0_Man wrote: Regarding the WaveOfShadow case, I see some merit there but I'm still not here to lynch posting players unless more comes up. I agree with Mandalor about what part of the case is compelling. Unprompted soft AND hard town claims with some fairly stupid follow up excuses. On February 12 2013 01:40 geript wrote: @zarepth On the first couple of reads I like the case. I'll come back with more after my test. Wish me luck! On February 12 2013 05:25 warbaby wrote: FWIW, Mocsta's play is a bit like his scum play in XXXV, but maybe it's also his idea of optimal town play (which is why he tried to do it as scum in 35 -- as a ruse). I don't see anything scummy in what Mocsta's done (other than some meta wifom crap based on his play in 35). I'm not dismissing the scum Mocsta idea, but I think zarepath's case on WaveofShadow is much more concrete at this point. I'm waiting to hear more from WaveofShadow before I consider voting him. I am also more interested in lynching lurkers (than Mocsta) if WoS makes a non-scummy defense. I do not really count glurio as a lurker -- his last post was very atypical of his scum play in 36 and counts as a real contribution in my book. I also expect he'll continue making decent contributions before D1 is over. On February 12 2013 05:44 Sn0_Man wrote: WoS has basically managed to come up with: I'm not scum, Honest! Plz forgive terribad posting, I promise to improve. I'm happy to give him another day, but that defense hardly clears his name. On February 12 2013 05:48 geript wrote: @zare Second post: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 11:21 WaveofShadow wrote: As far as I'm concerned, early game banter based on taking offense to others cheap shots or picking apart grammar is useless and should just be ignored. I'm fairly sure at this point enough people have declined the RNG vote so the topic should be dropped by everyone. Can the scumhunting begin now? Your other points are valid in that none if his posts have been effective. In context, his third post seems worse to me than anything else as Mocsta asks him to "Lead the way" and he takes a reasonably impassioned LAL stance which is unlikely to draw any attention. You do miss a post re: filter burying of which the highlight is While he returns to lurking after that, it's a valid point that has been brought up a few times now but started, imo, with Sno's earlier post: His last post is more of the same. While I still don't like Mocsta so far, your case is better and his last post nails it in for me. Ummm what? So, you're seeing alarm bells and aren't interested in putting pressure on them. Instead you're more interested in deflecting towards anyone else? You have clearly no interest in trying to make a case whatsoever or in doing any analysis. ##change vote waveofshadow On February 12 2013 05:59 cDgCorazon wrote: WoS- Zare already made a good case against him. Reading through his defense, he says: Note the bolded lines. He says that he regrets a few posts, but stands by them anyways. That appears a little bit contradictory to me. Why doesn't he just admit that he made a mistake and keep it at that? Why would he make a post full of WIFOM and only apologize for it when he gets called out on it? The next thing he does, once he's defended himself, is voted for a lurker. Now LAL isn't a bad policy, but it should not be used 30 hours before a lynch. That's just being lazy. It's giving up on all discussion for 30 hours (if one is going to stick with LAL), and it allows the scum to escape the radar D1 as long as they are slightly active (and it's not hard to make cases on people D1 as there are many players that can be targeted). Voting for Macheji this early is a scummy move to me and one that should be looked at further. I'm less suspicious on WoS than Geript, but I'm still curious. I'll keep my eye on him. On February 12 2013 07:07 warbaby wrote: Also WoS's post is a start in the right direction. IMO none of the proposed cases have enough merit to be worth voting scum at this point. And I don't see why we'd want to lynch glurio right now, over someone with actually zero posts. On February 12 2013 09:57 Mocsta wrote:
- Guy effectively says, great posts I am going to struggle to refute…
Whats important to me, is that on Day1 (post 24hrs) there are two guys that majorly fucked up. (warbaby and WoS) The question comes down to: are they both bad townie; are they both bad scum; or is one bad townie, one bad scum. Look at the approach warbaby Does not address case criteria Incites emotional arguments Continues to flame people, even when they agree to back off Just blindly follows others, once the heat is off. WaveofShadow Attempts to address case criteria Blindly follows others (voting lurkers) Puts some analysis into Glurio post The key differentiator is that WoS admits the situation outright, and has tried to still contribute (some parts blind following, other parts on his own accord). Im reading WoS as pretty genuine right now; and am willing to put him at this stage as “bad townie” Warbaby simply has done nothing to establish his innocence all game; My analysis and my gut is still telling me “first time scum”. On February 12 2013 10:28 warbaby wrote: Me vs WaveofShadow is a false dichotomy, Mocsta. What about sylencia? He could easily be a scum trying to blend in. I can't seriously vote WaveofShadow when there are other people who have made very small contributions. On February 12 2013 20:09 glurio wrote: I'll make it easier for you mandalor. What do you think about WoS right now? Can you elaborate on the scumminess of mocsta? A summary of the timeline: 1. warbaby absolutely hops onto it and FoSes without digging any deeper 2. Cora likes two specific points I made, but cautions that a lot of what I said could be said about others, and that my WIFOM point wasn't necessarily true in my own case last game 3. Mocsta generally likes it but thinks some tells are just educated assumptions on WoS's part and we have to wait to see what else he produces 4. Sevryn likes the case and adds some WIFOM to it 5. warbaby suggests that no one's made an obvious scum slip (except maybe WoS) 6. Mandalor emphasizes my point about WoS telling others to not analyze him, adds in the stuff about "my town" 7. Sn0 likes the case, but doesn't want to lynch an active player today 8. geript likes my case on first couples of reads, will post more later (has a test) 9. warbaby says my case is concrete but won't vote until he sees his defense 10. Sn0 really dislikes WoS's defense 11. geript analyzes my case, points out one of my points which wasn't really valid, but likes the others and votes for him 12. cora doesn't like WoS's defense, analyzes it a bit 13. warbaby says that WoS's posting is good enough for now to not vote for him 14. Mocsta analyzes WoS's defense and posting, reads him as genuine 15. warbaby emphasizes not having to vote for WoS 16. glurio wants Mandalor's read on the WoS case Have to go to work now, but I think that looking at this, you can separate players into how seriously they took this case as opposed to just bandwagoning on it. | ||
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On February 13 2013 02:34 geript wrote: I think the real question is that if Zare's initial post was fake, why wouldn't s/he re-evaluate it before removing the vote off you? Making a fake case is perfectly fine and has it's uses at points imo. But being fake doesn't mean that the case has no value. Because his actions read town. I think Mocsta explained it pretty well, actually, when he contrasted his response to your response to being attacked. And since then he's been pretty active in scum hunting. I'll certainly still look at him, but he's not on my current radar. | ||
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On February 13 2013 02:36 Sn0_Man wrote: Regarding Mandalor, voting a lurker with more than a day left to lynch is a safe vote, not a pressure vote. Its a "well now that my vote is down I can go back to hiding and only change it if I need to" kind of vote. Admitting that it is a "pressure vote" also defeats the purpose (as Sylencia has pointed out). Town care about their votes, as votes are (generally) the only power they have. Scum want their votes to give away as little information as possible, to cheapen the very concept of a vote. It should be decently clear which of those two things random "pressure votes" are. Including some of the ones you have thrown around too. Yes, but you're speaking more to the effectiveness of his actions than to the inherent scumminess of them. | ||
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But I'm pretty sure he went out of his way to talk about several people that weren't already bieng talked about. Will check the filter again while I check everyone else's, but I think you're exaggerating and perhaps reading too much into it. And here's a question -- what is a non-sheepable case? It's not something I've thought about before and apparently people are talking about sheepable cases. What's the difference? | ||
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On February 13 2013 04:34 Mandalor wrote: Right now, I would vote Sylencia. His response so far hasn't changed anything for me concerning his odd behavior with warbaby. WB never soft-claimed anything - yet Syl gives us this odd post saying he's most likely vig or scum. That is the opposite of helpful for town. I can't think of a use for this information at this point in the game. Elimination surely can't be it when we don't know any role yet. That combined with his uncharacteristic (I think? at least have that in my mind) lurking (yeah yeah I know, but I have posted more here than I did in any game yet) makes him my top scum read for now. If nothing big comes up that will be my vote for tonight (will probably have to vote in 4 or 5 hours and call it a day). I recommend you do a full case on his filter outlining more than just that SINGLE reason for him being scummy. | ||
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On February 13 2013 04:48 Sn0_Man wrote: Well, that basically is Sylencia's whole filter... You have yet to explain the value to lynching Macheji. Since Macheji is currently not part of this game (in any meaningful fashion) you are currently voting for a no-lynch, which is generally accepted as terrible day 1. Unless you are psychic and know what his replacement will say day 2? Now, if Macheji/9-bit show up shortly before the deadline to vote, then by all means we lynch them ded, but for now... you are not helping town with that vote. As I spent so long explaining to mandalor. Here's the thing -- we don't KNOW that he'll be replaced, and it is actually to scum's advantage for replacements to come in because we have less info on them if they ARE scum and have plenty of excuses to roll with, and if they're NOT scum town is still going to spend a bunch of energy wondering about this mysterious replacement when they come in. | ||
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I would really like everyone's opinion on warbaby. We certainly got away from him for a while, and he seemed less emotional, but I think we should all look at his filter again (I will be doing it, too), and decide if the second half of Day 1 changes how you see him for the first half of Day 1. I would especially like to hear from 9-Bit, Mocheji, Sevryn, glurio, warbaby, Mandalor, and Sylencia. I'll have my final read and vote before lynch time, hopefully early enough so that the last hours aren't insane. | ||
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Glurio defended WB as town, attacks Mocsta, did a big case on Sn0 (you) and then said he only did it because he was told to, and then said he only did it as a trap (?). He did go out of his way to pressure Mandalor, though. | ||
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Sevryn, glurio, warbaby, Mandalor, Sylencia I checked Sevryn's filter and I don't see him as scummy -- he really stuck to his guns with glurio and went out of his way to flush a lurker (Mandalor). The scummiest thing, IMO, was his reaction to my fake case, but he did bring some new insight to it, at least. Glurio is the only person who has cared much about Sn0, and he's gone back to it a couple times. the scummiest thing about glurio is the fact that he has presented two contradictory reasons as to why he made the case (at least how I read him): 1, because he was told to (people telling him to make cases) even though he knew it wasn't the best case, and 2, he knew it was a bad case but wanted to catch scum agreeing with it. THAT sounds weird (although that's exactly what I did). He also pressured Mandalor, and tried to call attention off of Warbaby in what seemed like a pro-town way. glurio is null-scum to me. Warbaby I didn't have time to read his whole filter.  His leap onto my case was pretty suspect, and while he has been super defensive about his alignment, he hasn't scum hunted at ALL, at least that I can tell. But I haven't time right now to do a real check and will go with Sn0 on this one and give him another day.Mandalor has not done anything particularly town-oriented that I can see and I have to go now ##Vote Mandalor | ||
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Will be doing some thorough analysis for this night cycle (starting tomorrow, assuming work doesn't get in the way.) | ||
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On February 14 2013 01:44 warbaby wrote: I stand by my assertion that there's a good chance one of the people voting Glurio were scum. The votes were very spread out, but I can't see how a scum would resist the temptation to either lead a bandwagon on Glurio, or drive one home. When all they have to do is simply be one of the five people voting by themselves, escaping all suspicion? Easy temptation to resist; they can just have three townies mislynch somebody while they camp on a worthless vote that they won't ever get criticized for. I'm not saying that that's my read on what happened; I'm saying it seems just as likely. We need to be open to possibilities in our analysis. | ||
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by Zarepath 9-Bit + Show Spoiler + Nothing to see. Looking forward to a modkill or replacement. Sevryn + Show Spoiler + I had a null read on him at the lynch -- he jumped on my fake case, added a little to it, tunneled glurio. But post-flip, he went very proactively defensive for it, saying that everybody was too focused on glurio/himself as the dichotomy. But HE was focused on glurio. Now that glurio's flipped, I want to see what his reads are on EVERYONE. If he was so certain about glurio, who does he think is scum now? Slight scum read on Sevryn. WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + I see him as being mostly proactive with a variety of reads. I don't understand what his big controversial post quoting Mocsta and Sn0_Man was about, other than the fact they wanted to go after lurkers and their plan failed. I read him as genuinely trying to help town. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler + His filter's filled with a lot of theory, policy, and meta talk. He interacts directly with a lot of other posters, and is very active. But towards the end of Day 1, he was practically begging other people to make cases he could bandwagon onto, finally settling on Sevryn. He is active enough that I don't consider him scummy, but trudging through his filter doesn't make me think he's absolutely pro-town. Leaning town, but not as sure as I used to be. ObviousOne + Show Spoiler + His assessment of Day 1 was pretty useful. I agree with Mocsta that we need to see his reads. Null, slightly to town based on his opening, but only slightly. Warbaby + Show Spoiler + Starts with general policy talk, his third post is a list, needlessly antagonistic to WoS, bunch of meta, insults everybody's mafia skills, tells people to mislynch him, prefers voting lurkers over scum, constantly asserts that he has no idea who the scum are, his final top 3 are sylencia, sevryn, then glurio. Is now focused on sevryn. I don't think he's as scummy as I've thought of him now that I've read thorugh the whole filter; I have a null read on him now, depending on how his case on Sevryn develops. geript + Show Spoiler + Geript was one of the only ones who really dug into my fake WoS case. He bought it, but only after he went through it and actually criticized a few of the points. He now has a case on Corazon that is at least original, and it's labeled Case 1, suggesting he has another case coming. I read him as leaning town. Mocsta + Show Spoiler + Super active first half of Day 1, went to "actively lurking" since after pouting about knowing when he's not wanted, and has done a lot of things that I see as pro-town -- encouraging two names so we can have clear bandwagons, picking apart bad logic, etc. I read him as town. The only other thing I'll note is that it's odd how little he's contributed (although he still has tons of filter). I think he's legit going for a different strat, but will keep an eye on him, obviously. Corazon + Show Spoiler + His Day 1 seemed pretty typical of his town meta, but he really pushed on his WB vote but didn't actively try to persuade anyone else; he just kept re-quoting his case, and then when the lynch was getting confusing, instead of asking for consolidation onto his TOP READ that he's had all day, instead he bandwagons onto Glurio. It's hard to judge any voting motivations from the Day 1 lynch, but this is suspicious to me. He gave a pretty town response to my WoS case, though. Null, leaning town. Mandalor + Show Spoiler + Mandalor's filter looks very scummy. Every other post is a list, the main thrust of his case on Sylencia has to do with blue talk, and the case for his final vote is not compelling at all. He just drops a random vote and checks out, doesn't even wish town luck. (To be fair, I did something similar because of time and RL constraints.) People's reactions to my vote on Mandalor were that they had town reads on him, but I'd like to ask you all what specifically makes him look town to you, because I don't see much. Reads SCUM Sylencia + Show Spoiler + Pretty vocal opponent of RNG there at the beginning, then his activity fades from there. He speculates HARD on warbaby's possible blue roles, not necessarily a very pro-town thing to do in public on Day 1, and that is the biggest contribution he made at all. He said he hadn't read very many filters, admitted to tunneling warbaby, then voted for him. In the end, he posted this gem: On February 13 2013 09:54 Sylencia wrote: .. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though. Town don't change their votes in order to stay alive; town believe in their scum reads or are willing to work with other people's scum reads. THey certianly don't do so just to stay alive; lynching scum is more important than a town's individual life. This quote makes it sound as though his number one concern is not being lynched. It's worth going through all the filters, apparently, because this was the last post in the final filter, and I think it's the biggest, latest scum tell. In conclusion, people I think are suspicious and would like other's thoughts on: Sevryn Warbaby Mandalor Sylencia Obv and 9-Bit's replacement also deserve scrutiny. But right now my two biggest reads are Sylencia and Mandalor. I think people should look at my brief reads on them, read their filters, and I want to hear your own conclusions. | ||
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On February 14 2013 04:09 geript wrote: His unwillingness to vote warbaby means something which IMO is that he doesn't want to get blamed for a bad case and town/flip. But then why would he ensure a different town flip? He looks equally as bad, possibly even moreso for skipping out on his "top read" in order to mislynch a townie. | ||
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On February 14 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote: If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town. That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself. And you think that those circumstances applied at all? The wagon on confirmed town would have to be on HIM, and there was no such wagon. YOu can sya he was proactively saying it in case the situation arose, but why bring it up in the first place? I'm saying that it shows that saving himself was at the forefront of his mind, and he was willing to not lynch scum to do so. | ||
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This is in reference to Syl saying that he would switch his vote to glurio if he has to in order to save himself... but not while he's under any real pressure. | ||
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On February 11 2013 13:04 WaveofShadow wrote:Obviously the Day is still young but I expect more from my Town as the day progresses. That read to me as a very clear DT claim, and is what led me to doing my fake case on Wave -- I was pretty sure I'd found the DT and wanted to know who was willing to see him dead. Unfortunately, the fact that I saw his claim means that scum could also have seen the claim and decide to kill him N1. That same logic leads to scum not wanting to be any part of a mislynch on him, because they know he'll flip blue and they can't have that blood on their hands, which makes me think that scum are most likely to be the ones that gave support to my case but didn't push it. I don't know why Wave made a fake DT claim, other than to lure a mafia hit, of course. Or there's also the possibility that it wasn't a DT claim at all and he just randomly screwed up his capital letters. | ||
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On February 14 2013 08:18 Mocsta wrote: @Sn0_Man It has to do with: Then our conversation The point being; it never clicked with me why Geript mentioned he was saying he thought WB was town, instead of claimed town. When you said, it may not have been a "scum buddy" it all clicked together. I countered by saying: I didn't understand this at all; it seemed kind of cryptic. Were you saying that geript might be a Mason with Warbaby or something? | ||
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On February 14 2013 10:44 Mocsta wrote: Sorry to chip in. but that is really bad logic DT isn't a role this game.... its pretty easy to check; frankly, i dont know why your making these type of claims without doing your homework? i.e. I would like an answer to the above please. LOL wow, apparently you're right. That was a really needlessly risky thing I did then on Day 1. I built a lot of assumptions off of that. Okay, so I read the roles once before the game started, but decided I wasn't even going to look at them until after N1 to keep myself from delving into needless role speculation. I really should've checked when I saw the DT claim, but the last 4 games I've played have all had DTs and for some reason seeing those two capital letters in such an awkward sentence just made everything click for me and got me all excited. | ||
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Okay, it wasn't clear why you were bringing it up, but it hardly matters now anyway, so moving on. | ||
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On February 14 2013 11:59 ObviousOne wrote: Who else but me as vigilante is able to speculate on the existence or absence of a vigilante so confidently? I knew nobody would speak up since I was responsible for the kill, and if anyone had dared I would be an instant counter-claim to it. Then WHY WOULD YOU LET TOWN ASSUME THERE'S AN SK??? | ||
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On February 14 2013 12:11 ObviousOne wrote: Because it shouldn't change how you play? Then why even bring it up, to say "I'm going to have to assume there's an SK now" if it contributes nothing and won't change anything? | ||
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Really dubious claim. ##Vote ObviousOne | ||
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The other problem is that having both SK kills and mafia kills each night will be super confusing as to knowing who actually killed you; we'd have to take your word for it. If you actually think an SK would be worth keeping around, and that's your defense, you better hard claim SK and explain your value to town. This either-or crap only solidifies your lynch. | ||
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I know you are looking for my analysis of my fake case, but I did have that -- it was a list of their reactions. It's informed all my other reads, but I haven't done another full recap of it. I forget what your other question was. I'll check tomorrow. | ||
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In the meantime, there are a lot of wills left to look at and dissect, and certain players who haven't said anything for a long time. Still plenty to discuss; still three scum to look for, whether we vote for those reads today or not. I'll be answering Mocsta's questions momentarily. | ||
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On February 14 2013 11:15 Mocsta wrote: Whoah whoah, dont run away so fast; This DT stuff is adding even more confusion to my last will comment to you. Im going to give you a quick run down on my worst-case interpretation:
If I look at you in best case scenario:
The problem I have with 'best-case scenario" is; if there was nothing of note to provide analysis; why not just spill the beans instead of moving along like nothing happened? (Its obviously too late to say anything now, its just WIFOM) Lastly, as I said before, i think your case was a major issue to why we could not consolidate votes Day1. I I don't see how my case prevented consolidated votes; the foremost problem was the lack of a clear, compelling case from ANYONE. I can hardly take responsibility for everyone else's lack of strong cases. I can certainly take responsibility for my last-minute Mocsta vote based mostly on the fact that I didn't feel that strongly about any of the other candidates. I gave up the shenanigans because I determined that in the long run it would do more harm than good, and that we needed several hours of clarity in order to put forth a good lynch. Honestly, a clear lynch target didn't come out of my fake case. I'm curious to see how Obvious flips tonight, because he visited Wave, and if he were mafia I think that people who completely ignored my case look scummier (they saw the DT claim and decided to kill him at night, although there's no nominal DT). I was looking for two things -- people who liked my case and would agree with it but not actually do anything, and those who do not really process it or look at it critically. Those would be people who knew that person was town but didn't mind them dying and want to take credit for discussion/participation (ie, scum). This is why Warbaby, Sylencia, and Mandalor have all looked scummy to me. Warbaby immediately latched onto the case with no analysis, it was the first case Syl said anything about at all and he pretty much entirely agreed while adding a minor point to it, and Mandalor did something similar. Mocsta, actually, first said "quite a few good points in that case," calling some educated assumptions and others anti-town, but not explaining which ones. In the end, he does do an analysis of Wave's defense as opposed to Warbaby's defense and concludes that Wave actually looks town in comparison to Warbaby. This is at a point when the fake lynch still hasn't taken off, it's sitting at 2 votes (myself and geript). So this makes your reaction to my fake case less scummy than that of Warbaby, Sylencia, and Mandalor, imo. Sn0 "liked the case" but didn't want to lynch an active player D1, but then really disliked his defense. He wasn't super eager to go after him at first, so I didn't see that as scummy. Corazon liked specific parts of it but cautioned that the same points could be brought up against others. Geript is the one who actually broke down my case the most, and while in the end it led to him voting for Wave, he was obviously thinking critically, which led to my town read on him. So while I could say that as a result of this tactic Warbaby, Sylencia, Mandalor, and Mocsta are three scum and 1 SK, that's obviously going too far. Sometimes town just says they like a case and don't think real hard about it. Perhaps a desperate Warbaby was just happy to see any case that wasn't on him, etc. But I still think that they are strikes against these people. | ||
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On February 12 2013 01:33 Sn0_Man wrote: Regarding the WaveOfShadow case, I see some merit there but I'm still not here to lynch posting players unless more comes up. I agree with Mandalor about what part of the case is compelling. Unprompted soft AND hard town claims with some fairly stupid follow up excuses. It's not as scummy because he doesn't want him lynched today. Scum would hope for a mislynch. It's not like he's super critical of the case, but it's not as eager as the other people. | ||
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On February 15 2013 00:31 Mandalor wrote: I don't quite understand zarepath's logic this game AT ALL. I can't see how Sn0's reaction was any different from the others, including mine. Yet, for some reason, he excludes him from the "scummy" reactions. NOONE was super eager to go after him except warbaby maybe. I still think post 6 was weird and I only really commented on that. What other things about my play do you see as illogical? | ||
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On February 15 2013 03:00 Mandalor wrote: yeah but where's the difference to all the other reactions except warbaby's. Noone jumped on your case and said "LET'S LYNCH HIM". No, but they didn't proactively say "let's not lynch him." In fact, somebody saying "LET'S LYNCH HIM" would have read more town than scum to me. WB, the only reason I'm bringing this fake case stuff out again is because Mocsta wanted more of my reaction to my fake case, so I provided it. Mandalor, you have TWO lists in your filter, and it's a short filter. I did exaggerate when I said "every other post is a list," you're right about that; it was fairly sloppy. But that doesn't magically make your filter read town. Where were your N1 reads? Who do you even suspect of being scum anymore? Someone claims tracker on a kill, someone claims vig in response, and your reaction is what? The first thing you've posted since then is to call me out on bad logic on something unrelated. So in sum, don't criticize people for suspecting you and saying you look scummy when you have done almost nothing to look town. Start acting like town and at least pretending to care about the scum hunt. | ||
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On February 15 2013 02:53 Mandalor wrote: I've already commented on how you see my filter as list-heavy when there's a single list-post. You either tunnel me really hard or you follow a certain agenda. Also note that you're one of SEVERAL people I have slight scum reads on, and the quote you have issue with comes from a post with reads on literally every single player. I hardly call that tunneling; I'm not calling for your lynch or anything. Don't be so defensive and look for scum instead. | ||
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Somebody said that Mocsta/Cora/WB rushing to defend or attack Mocsta/Cora/WB was only meant to divert attention from Mocsta/Cora/WB... this is getting out of hand. None of you have attention diverted away from yourselves. By participating in this BS, attention is focused on YOU, and as town (and I assume at least one of you involved here is town), that is bad. We are looking at MYLO tomorrow, guys. TOMORROW. And we know almost nothing about the reads or opinions of MULTIPLE players: Sylencia Mandalor Sevryn Why are we so eager to let them do literally nothing today? | ||
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On February 15 2013 23:28 Mocsta wrote: However: What is concerning to me TestUser; is that you do not seem to notice (or case) warbaby is actually the one who blatantly ignores any criticisms/comments directed his way. I simply do not understand how when two people react, and exhibit the same behaviour; one is reasonable, the other becomes 'something else'? Quit ignoring empirical data. Why are you wasting any reasoning at all on TestUser? He claimed Tracker with no counterclaim and we'll know if he's a liar tonight. You're turning this into a schoolyard bicker. LOOK FOR SCUM, don't engage in juvenile wordplay games. | ||
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If WB is scum, we should be able to tell from reasons other than him literally telling us he is scum. | ||
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On February 16 2013 00:56 Mocsta wrote: Sev is null for me. I do want to see more from him; but I prioritize mandalor/sylencia over him. - as stated before. Next cycle we are down to what 9 players? pressuring 3 people simultaneously is 33% of the playing list. I would contemplate an RNG lynch on them Considering they aren't giving us anything to work with.We are potentially in MYLO tomorrow, and you want to RNG? | ||
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I'll be spending what time I have today doing another filter dive and come out by the end of the night with my reads. | ||
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I think we need to find our first scum within Syl, Mandalor, and Sevryn. Earlier in the game I found Sevryn more pro-town than the other two, but I haven't consciously re-checked that. All three filters need rigorous analysis, and luckily it looks like that seems to be the town consensus right now. I think we may need a full blue claim tomorrow. | ||
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Still filter diving, but I'm inclined to go for Mandalor right now. Although he did say he was going to be busy this whole time. Not that I'm one to talk... As Cora pointed out, Sundays are my busiest days. Sorry for not mentioning that myself. I should be back for the day. Catching up, filter reading, etc. I like the discussion so far. | ||
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On February 19 2013 00:46 Sylencia wrote: The three voting for me are the three scum players anyways, which essentially means whatever I say to you doesn't matter. This feels so scummy to me, in addition to his No-Lynch. He is terrified of targeting or going after anyone in particular, and has spent most of his energy defending himself. ##Vote: Sylencia P.S. - To all who have raised their concerns about my activity the last few days -- sorry, I've been spending time with family today since I have the day off. I know this isn't ideal and that my final contribution looks really haphazard, but that's because I just haven't put in the time to do a more thorough read. Sorry, all. | ||
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On February 19 2013 07:16 Sn0_Man wrote: If the game is still going and I'm alive, I'll be back in full tomorrow. On February 19 2013 07:14 Sn0_Man wrote: If we lose on the spot I kinda feel like the setup is dumb XD. Not to start throwing crap around, but Sn0 is really prepping for an end-of-game mislynch. | ||
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Trying to pull scum out of the three players with the fewest posts has apparently been difficult for us. What happened to WB scum? It looked so bad for him halfway through D1. I'm going to revisit that tomorrow. When Mocsta was going off on OO, he was quite certain that OO was SK. He was also quick to suggest Syl's fake role claiming. And ifyou look at the first half of D1, he accused/suggested that an incredibly large number of different people were scummy. Mandalor has an excuse for inactivity; Sevryn not as much. Sevryn, if we had a JK he surely would have protected our Tracker last night. | ||
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Mocsta thinks that geript is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 09:43 Mocsta wrote: /confirm geript.. if you vote for warbaby (my doppleganger) your voting for ME ##Vote: Geript This shit for realz now huh On February 11 2013 09:52 Mocsta wrote: Why dont you give others a chance to post their own thoughts instead of trying to forcefully influence them before they have spoken. Are you trying for a dictatorship here or something? Mocsta thinks that warbaby is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 09:51 Mocsta wrote: Thats fuckn scummy as clone. You want to post the same thing as another game when you were TOWN. I did the same thing when I was scum you know.. you really are copying me arent you. ##Unvote ##Vote:Warbaby you know geript, you really were onto something here On February 11 2013 13:30 Mocsta wrote: warbaby, if I may come out of hibernation. Thanks for the updated summary list. So far, you are the guy I dont like the most and I am going to outline the reasons below. #1 - In your entry you specified its direct from your last town game (i.e. soft claim for town) If you want to re-use ice-breakers, do it... why specify its from your town game #2 - Summary lists are an easy way to contribute, without contributing All of us can easily do a filter click, off page1 + its pretty obvious we going through a USA/Europe vs Oceania shift #3 - You even make comments alluding you to your "good ideas = town play" concept from your last game Why are you trying SO SO hard to associate your self with being town? The above is not worthy of a vote (yet), but I would appreciate your feedback to the above. On February 11 2013 20:57 Mocsta wrote: I waited 8 hours for THAT... ##vote: warbaby I never seen a town player defend themselves so meekly early game.it shows complete lack of care. Logicial deduction. U must be scum. good find corazon. Perhaps i wad wrong with RNG On February 11 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote: Wow warbaby. Way to go just calling everyone dumb. And u think u were a proponent of a pro-town friendly atmosphere. Ur last 3 posts are anything but that. Just cos u scum doesnt mean u have to be out of line like this.. Seriously. Esp when u called out corazon for this behaviour earlier. Mocsta thinks that corazon is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 10:02 Mocsta wrote: Actually considering your last game, I think he is right to point this out. It was very off-putting to say the least. Your on watch. On February 11 2013 10:09 Mocsta wrote: Are you scared im gonna find all the scum Corazon, including you? Mocsta thinks that sn0_man is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 10:21 Mocsta wrote: Is this how you plan to build cases Sn0_Man, if so, why is there any value for town keeping you here? Im suggesting an open forum of communication; which appears at first read, 180 degrees from your suggestion. I dont see any problems with my English above. I am not sure if English is your first language, so I will not treat this as an attempt by scum to mock me publicly. Mocsta thinks that WaveofShadow is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 13:41 Mocsta wrote: Sorry, but, I cant even begin to fathom what you are implying with this? Please clarify, as it reads very WIFOM to me. Mocsta thinks that Mandalor is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 20:52 Mocsta wrote: Mandalor. I know u want revenge for me. But spending time trying to kick a guy when he is on the floor. I.e. prove something is dead when it is indeed dead.... reads to me as trying to contribute without contributing. Since u talking about lurkers. Can i assume ur in luv with geript? Mocsta thinks that glurio is scum: + Show Spoiler + On February 11 2013 23:46 Mocsta wrote: Glurio, (1) why are you asking others to look into my filter? | ||
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On February 19 2013 11:35 cDgCorazon wrote: Zare most of these are just discussion questions. The only one where I'd say he thinks the person is scum is the one about WB. You're just reaching with this argument. Not officially, but you don't say things like "Why not, you worried I'll find out you're scum?" to promote a good town environment day 1. This isn't a case; this is backing up my claim that Mocsta suggests is a false one. | ||
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1. They killed geript N1 2. They all voted for an ObviousOne lynch Day 2 3. They killed TestSubject, confirmed Tracker, N2 4. They RB'd Sylencia N1 and N2 What are possible extrapolations from this? 1. Geript is an interesting choice. I personally considered him to be a productive analyst, but I was fairly alone in that assessment -- most people assumed he had been vigi-shot for lurking. What are potential scum motivations for killing him? A) They don't know the blue roles, and want to avoid a save by targeting a less-obvious player; B) He read as a blue role; C) He read as a threat; D) They wanted to keep the active players in play. I've usually seen scum target the most active analyst that isn't scummy unless there's a blue claim. Why didn't scum target Sn0, Mocsta, Cora, myself, or Warbaby? Well, Warbaby already had a good amount of suspicion; I had only contributed a fake case up to that point, really; and based on the final vote tally, perhaps scum was plenty happy with the town environment that the actives had cooked up. We can get into WIFOM here but there really isn't anything productive that we can suggest at this point. So let's just look at geript: Votes Warbaby Attacks RNG and wants to move on from it Criticizes Cora for his tone Criticizes Sn0 for getting into an unproductive discussion on English that Sn0 admitted was unproductive Says he likes LAL Unvotes WB Calls Warbaby town Calls out Mocsta for throwing attacks everywhere and jumping on the first one that gains traction Puts more pressure on Mocsta and votes for him Breaks down my WoS case and then votes for WoS Calls out Cora and Mocsta for a "my way or the highway" approach to the game Calls out Sylencia for bad logic; asks why Cora and Mocsta DIDN'T Pressures WoS more Calls out Cora for tunneling and "let's lynch a loud voice" logic Two final cases are a big one against Cora and a summary one against WoS What else do we know about scum's N1 geript kill? They didn't know that WaveofShadow, geript's Day 1 vote, was going to die that night. Geript was uniquely on the attack on WaveofShadow; but to a certain extent, he was also uniquely on the attack on Cora and, to a lesser extent, Mocsta. Geript was not a sheep, stuck to his guns, and called BS where he saw it. That alone may have been enough for scum to kill him, in addition to the fact that he probably wasn't going to be protected. 2. The ObviousOne lynch -- whether they knew OO was a vigilante or an SK, scum wanted him lynched either way. It's difficult to parse out the town motivations for lynching OO from the scum motivations, but let me put it this way -- scum would not want anyone to consider leaving OO alive, especially with scum knowing they can't night kill him easily. This is their best chance for killing OO. Mocsta was the first to vote for him, and called him "Mr. SK" despite the fact he could be scum. I suggest OO might night kill for us in exchange for his life Sevryn calls Mocsta out for that point Mocsta brings up pros/cons for keeping the SK alive on a leash; suggests lynch Cora doesn't want to overcomplicate things and so wants to just lynch him Mocsta hopes his post convinces others it's not worthwhile to keep the SK alive Sn0 identifies the inherent problems with lynching an SK instead of a scum read, but thinks it's better in the end WB doesn't want to negotiate with him at all Cora doesn't see why we can't vote him off later (at the end of the day, not right now) Sn0 brings up the possibility of leashing the SK based on his clear read of him as an SK WB delves into all the possibilities there, worried about how we can't mislynch after lynching OO 3. Testsubject night kill. Scum absolutely had to target Testsubject here, but if they didn't have an RB, they may have done something else because of Sylencia's role-blocked claims (which would mean there's a JK, who would obviously protect Testsubject). The fact that they targeted and killed Testsubject means not only that there's not a JK, but that scum knew that there's not a JK -- which gives a lot of credence to Sylencia's RB claim. In retrospect, we as town should have realized this and not lynched him. Unfortunately there is not much else to learn from this; it is a clear and obvious scum move that implicates no one. 4. Sylencia RBs. I find it interesting that their N1 moves were a geript kill and a Sylencia RB. RBing Sylencia had the effect of making town believe that he was lying and scum trying to take credit for it. Sylencia was one of MANY targets Day 1, and one of the more obvious lurkers. Scum may have RB'd him for a few different reasons; A) Scum thought he was blue; B) Scum wanted town to believe he was a fake-claiming lurker, making him the most obvious lurker to pressure/target; C) Scum wanted to RB someone they thought would also be JK'd so that the town JK assumes there is no scum RB, and saw Sylencia as a likely JK target. I find A and B to be the most likely, particularly B because the result would have gone nicely with Motivation B (ie, it worked, after a fashion). The Day 2 RB on Sylencia either suggests that mafia believe that he was a blue that was stopped N1 (there were no other JK claims, no vigi-kills, and no Watcher claims), or that they wanted us to believe he was fake-claiming two days in a row and that there was no RB (because surely the scum RB would target a more blue-looking target, right?). I can see either of these motivations being the case. But if scum wanted us to believe he was fake claiming RBs, that suggests a few things; A) Scum saw a potential mislynch here and just went for it; B) Scum wanted Sylencia to be the lurker that stood out the most on a day that everyone is clearly going to be talking about the Three Lurkers; C) Sylencia had valuable reads and insight and needed to be shut down. Looking through Sylencia's filter, he does a good amount of blue speculation (potential sign of being blue?), thinks WB is either scum or vigi, votes WB Day 1, says that he's not blue, mentions that Sn0 considered him to be either blue or scum and perhaps that's why scum has been RBing him, then most of his final energy is defending himself. His only real pressure read was WB; and there was speculation that he was blue. I can see scum RBing him twice just because of the possibility of him being blue. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 19 2013 11:41 Mocsta wrote: Secondly, there is a chance there are 3 VTs, and only 1 Blue left (who may not even be a vet) If there are 3 scum and 4 non-scum, the game would be over already unless there IS a vet. I am going to operate on the assumption that we'll be playing on Day 4, either because of scum hitting a vet or because there are only 2 scum. I'm going to try to do my own math on the setup to determine if there really CAN'T be just 2 scum. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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zarepath
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On February 20 2013 00:38 cDgCorazon wrote: Second of all, you two are grouping your activity together and not actually getting anything done (compared to me/Warbaby/Mocsta). Oh, yes? What "anything done" have you three accomplished, other than mislynching twice? | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
In America, Monday was a holiday. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
I'm going to keep trying to work things out today. If you have a CASE that you believe will lead us to definitely finding scum tomorrow, then go for it. Otherwise, BACK OFF and let me do what you're complaining that I'm not doing. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 13 2013 09:05 Dandel Ion wrote: ![[image loading]](https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2752616335/4b3ae0f60a4556ba1b2b4088d779492b_normal.jpeg) Count Vote:Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor WaveofShadow (1): geript Macheji (1): WaveofShadow geript (1): Mocsta glurio (1): Sevryn Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man Mandalor (1): zarepath Not Voting (5): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia, cDgCorazon Currently, Sylencia is set to be lynched! ~1 hour remaining until deadline. Remember you have to vote! I am bringing this part up, before the final tally, because this is where Sylencia would have been lynched, and scum knew that Sylencia was not scum (and so do we, now). At this point, do scum necessarily want to hammer this home? Do they wait back and see if someone else will be the next vote? With so many 1-votes, I imagine it's hard for scum to decide what to do. At least one scum has voted at this point, because the only other person not on the board whose alignment we don't already know is Corazon. What happens next? Mocsta unvotes geript and goes for Glurio on this point: On February 13 2013 09:14 Mocsta wrote: OK Glurio responded basically said.. his contributions are better than the other lurkers because ##Unvote ##Vote: Glurio Even bad town are trying to contribute, its just they dont know how to do it effectively. (Look at WoS) That you can not even discriminate between your contributions and others, suggests you're not even trying. Guess what, thats scummy as. Despite the fact that earlier, Mocsta had said the following: On February 13 2013 08:07 Mocsta wrote: I recommend we have 2 lynch candidates i.e. 1 agreed representative for the lurkers 1 agreed representative for the actives We never "agreed" but Sylencia is a representative for the lurkers that is currently set to be lynched. After preaching consolidation, why is Mocsta voting for Glurio at this point in time? It's true that about a page or two before this vote switch, he attacked Glurio, so it is not entirely out of the blue. But it IS inconsistent with his consolidation strategy. It is really only worth thinking about this because we all now know that Glurio was town, and Mocsta was the momentum for the Glurio lynch. The next vote: On February 13 2013 09:23 cDgCorazon wrote: Lynching Glurio would go a long way in either proving or disproving my case towards WB. His town claim is even stupider than WB's as well. There's not much else to say. ##Vote: Glurio So now Cora has put the third (and, in the end, final) vote on Glurio. His reasoning is incredibly suspect and I wish I had seen this earlier. Note that he is the last person to vote, and he only votes after Mocsta has switched onto Glurio. While Mocsta's switch onto Glurio is at least backed up by an attack pages earlier where Mocsta warned that Glurio was earning his ire, Cora's stance toward Glurio was not as clear or built-up, and his reasoning for switching is pretty awful -- in order to prove or disprove his theory on WB? I don't recall him following up on this and saying, "Well, this now means that WB MUST be town/scum," his entire reason for voting for Glurio. However, we can say that Cora was only trying to do what Mocsta had asked for earlier -- consolidation. On February 13 2013 09:29 Dandel Ion wrote: glurio (3): Sevryn, Mocsta, cDgCorazon Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor WaveofShadow (1): geript Macheji (1): WaveofShadow Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man Mandalor (1): zarepath Not Voting (4): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia Currently, glurio is set to be lynched! ~half an hour remaining until deadline. Remember you have to vote! Now there are two people left to vote (4, really, but in retrospect and realistically only 2). No matter how they vote, either Sylencia or Glurio will be mislynched -- a mafia victory. Because we know who all these people were, we can deduce that mafia have all voted by this point. Because of Corazon and Mocsta's votes, mafia is guaranteed a mislynch unless multiple people switch votes at the last minute AND the two final voters vote elsewhere. Next, WB votes Sevryn for this Glurio wagon (not exactly a productive vote) but doesn't try to get people off of the wagon, and Glurio votes for Corazon for sheeping onto the Glurio wagon. The final vote is Sylencia voting for WB, contributing nothing. Considering where things stood, I find Corazon, Mocsta, and WB's votes to be the most suspicious coming out of Day 1, now knowing what we know. The question is -- if Cora or Mocsta are scum, why didn't they vote for Sylencia when there were already two votes on him? Perhaps a fear of looking too bandwagonny, and it's not as if any scum were in trouble themselves at the time. However, Cora's vote on Glurio would be exactly as bandwagonny (if not moreso) than if he had simply voted for Sylencia when there were two votes there. WB's vote accomplishes nothing and goes a ways toward ensuring that either Sylencia or Glurio are mislynched. I am curious as to anyone else's thoughts on these votes. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
On February 20 2013 01:00 warbaby wrote: I feel the same was Corazon does. For 96 hours, only 3 out of (original) 13 players actually played the game properly, and 2 halfway. That is bullshit and the game is pretty much ruined already. Zarepath, Sn0_man, how would you like it if I stopped posting for 96 hours? Apparently I can without breaking the rules. The weekend is when you have fun. Mafia is a game. You have fun playing games. If you do not have fun playing mafia, then you're doing it wrong. If you do not have fun on a 3 day weekend, you are doing it wrong. If whatever you do with your family for an entire 3-day weekend is more fun than mafia, the you are doing it wrong. You are either doing it wrong by being a dull person who does not understand how to have fun, or you are doing it wrong by signing up for mafia when it's either not a game you enjoy playing, or you have much more interesting things to do with your time. WB, legit concerns, but they don't relate to the game right now. Let's talk afterwards. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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zarepath
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We really should have done better work on D3. We had the Mocsta slip and two easy filters to really delve into. | ||
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zarepath
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Sorry for going AFK -- I had family obligations almost all of Saturday, and Sundays are crazy. | ||
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zarepath
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On February 20 2013 04:48 Sn0_Man wrote: I didn't see a way to make town play decently, so I got super lazy. I'm aware this isn't good town play. I still don't see a way I could have won the game (esp. not with this setup). I'm honestly not bitter about losing anymore, (although I was sour for a bit), but I'm curious as to real suggestions as to how I could have pursued a victory as well as some thoughts as to how town in general can hope to ever win in a 9-3-1 setup. We had a 2-in-3 shot on Day 3 and just didn't know it. A little more rigor when Sylencia seemed too easy of a lynch is all it would've taken. I feel like I personally could have switched the vote onto Mandalor if I had taken the time and effort. | ||
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zarepath
United States1626 Posts
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