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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On February 10 2013 13:28 Mocsta wrote: On preview, this shows as: " Prospected start: Sunday 09:00 AWST (+08:00)." My time right now is:12:27PM +8GMT The Sunday part of the announcement did not change because the [time] tag does not work on dates...so for you it means Monday. | ||
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warbaby
United States510 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
A successful RNG campaign is like getting the 1500wins with all 3 races achievement in starcraft. i.e. its fuckn hard achievement (even 2 years into SC) To do this in the newbie league, is like getting the 1500wins with all 3 races achievement NOW in Heart of the Swarm. Fellow newbies, we have an opportunity here to be part of something great. Something unique. SOMETHING that will be recorded in the history of TL-Forum Mafia. We may even make the 2013 TL Mafia awards for BEST PLAY 2013. How can you seriously consider turning down this opportunity? Join me! ##Vote: RNG For those worried about "hacking the source". that is fine.(what he said went over my head). That is fine, im here to look for solutions to get this bandwagon starting. How about: Make a live video of opening a new workbook in excel, setup a random number between 1-13 and lynch from that. I dont see how that can be faked (because its new, there is no vba behind it). Start the live feed by posting in the thread, so we know its live as well? | ||
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warbaby
United States510 Posts
e: probably still easily fake-able (even live) if you're a video processing wizard, but I don't really know (I'm a software wizard by profession  ) | ||
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Sn0_Man
Tebellong44238 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 10 2013 15:14 Sylencia wrote: RNG lynch is pretty horrible, 77% chance you hit a non-scum and you get 0 info out of it whatsoever because there would be little reason to accuse people of anything. Blank day, waste of time and only really reduces town chance of winning Have you gone through every newbie, and recorded the success rate of hitting scum Day 1? If not, perhaps you're not in a position to give an opinion that is indicative of expertise. Let me tell you, we are up to Newbie 37. The last game I know of scum lynched Day1 = newbie 31. The last game before that, is so long ago, it is a statistical outlier. 1 D1 scum in 6 games = 16.6% chance to lynch scum RNG (3 / 13) = 23% chance to lynch scum. Dunno about you, but my maths suggest 23% >>> 16.6% Henceforth, RNG >>> Newbie Scum hunting. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 10 2013 15:50 Sn0_Man wrote: RNG is a terrible idea. Not voting for it no matter what I roll. People in favour of it (after role pms are sent out) are scummy in my eyes. Look at the post below The percentages speak for themselves. If you do not vote RNG after the Role PMs, then YOU SIR, are scummy in my eyes! | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
I will more than accept my fate if the # arrived is my own demise. That I stand by. I believe in this. Believe in it with me! | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
just did a =randbetween(1,13) #9 Sorry zarepath, your out  | ||
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warbaby
United States510 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
You might conceivably have a better chance of hitting scum with RNG then with scumhunting (I don't believe that, but whatever). Even if that's true the difference wouldn't be huge. With an RNG lynch you lose ALL the information from the day one lynch, which is basically the point of a day one lynch. If you're not getting any information you may as well no-lynch and have done with it. Conclusion: RNG lynch is terribad. You're better off no-lynching, which is itself terribad. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Guess you forgot about your Day1 mislynch campaign on Spaghetticus already. Its OK, everyone can name 13 people in the obs qt to hit scum Day 1  | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
I would contest you gain MORE INFORMATION. Why? If the RNG is scum; who is going to save their buddies from a Day1 "mislynch". I should *NOT* need to explain this one to you. The percentages speak for themselves. RNG >> Newbie level scum hunting | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On February 10 2013 16:04 Mocsta wrote: Thanks for chipping in Aquanim. Guess you forgot about your Day1 mislynch campaign on Spaghetticus already. Its OK, everyone can name 13 people in the obs qt to hit scum Day 1 I didn't say you hit scum day 1 every time. Besides, the other wagon was on Corazon, who was scum. In XXXI I wanted to lynch Kick day 1, and he was scum (Kick is always scum in my games, go figure.) But my actual point is... the reactions of everyone to that case on Spaghetticus told me FAR, FAR more than a random lynch would have. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Edit: You do seem to be assuming that you'll always hit scum with a RNG lynch. Which is so very not true. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 10 2013 16:08 Aquanim wrote: I didn't say you hit scum day 1 every time. Besides, the other wagon was on Corazon, who was scum. In XXXI I wanted to lynch Kick day 1, and he was scum (Kick is always scum in my games, go figure.) But my actual point is... the reactions of everyone to that case on Spaghetticus told me FAR, FAR more than a random lynch would have. You know if someone else wrote this RNG stuff, I am not so certain you would bother saying your 2cents. Regardless, Anyone can say they had a scum read on Day1 in the firing line. This game isnt about shoulda, woulda, coulda. Its about who has the majority when the timer runs out. Suffice to say, your track record isn't looking relevant to coming in here and playing the expert card. | ||
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warbaby
United States510 Posts
I'm not sold on RNG though, and I think using a predetermined RNG from the pre-game is probably cheating. The difference between (unmanipulated) RNG and trying to lynch a scum (absent an obvious scumslip) is huge. Scums use their information advantage to lead the bandwagon on D1 to make sure a town is lynched. They can use multiple town targets to obfuscate their voting patterns. True RNG is random, which a D1 "scumhunt" will never be. e: To clarify, a true RNG has a chance of hitting scum D1. Absent terribly bad scum play, trying to hunt scum D1 has a 100% chance of lynching a town (although there can be information in the voting patterns). | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 10 2013 16:09 Aquanim wrote: Yeah, yeah, sure. And on the >70% times you hit town you gain absolutely NOTHING. Good one. Edit: You do seem to be assuming that you'll always hit scum with a RNG lynch. Which is so very not true. Im not pretending the game is solved by implementing Day1 RNG. Im also not pretending OR overstating that the game is solved by scum hunting Day 1. I am stating, RNG gives us statistically a better chance to have town in even-stead with scum Day2. That has not been refuted by any arguments thus far. You act as if RNG means, discussion in town is over; in fact it is not. Discussion continues, one guy is voted; and the hunt continues for more scum. Stop pretending as if this action stops all other criteria for good town play. It most certainly does not. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On February 10 2013 16:13 warbaby wrote: RNG can be a last resort, that we decide on only in the last hour of D1 (or not at all), and only in the absence of lurkers. So there can still be voting patterns to analyze. I'm not sold on RNG though, and I think using a predetermined RNG from the pre-game is probably cheating. The difference between (unmanipulated) RNG and trying to lynch a scum (absent an obvious scumslip) is huge. Scums use their information advantage to lead the bandwagon on D1 to make sure a town is lynched. They can use multiple town targets to obfuscate their voting patterns. True RNG is random, which a D1 "scumhunt" will never be. e: To clarify, a true RNG has a chance of hitting scum D1. Absent terribly bad scum play, trying to hunt scum D1 has a 100% chance of lynching a town (although there can be information in the voting patterns). I dont know if this is possible. BUT If the moderator agreed to produce a RNG #, would you trust that? | ||
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