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On January 25 2013 15:03 wherebugsgo wrote:
rofl I have something funny for you guys.
I'll be completely honest, I saw grush vote at the top of the page and I was like why the fuck is grush voting at night?
I thought my post on the previous post caused the new page to come up, meaning I missed the daypost and Lazer's ninjavote.
LOL.
Anyway, let's kill grush today.
##vote grush57
Any comments about the discussion on Kush/Lazermonkey before the night deadline? I know it seems like Lazermonkey has to be scum now, but I guess it's at least hypothetically possible that grush is bussing Jay... Although really, that's veeeery unlikely.
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Work starting now so can't really discuss though for a while.
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On January 25 2013 17:08 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2013 14:56 Xatalos wrote:
Lazermonkey, how did you go from grush as definitely most scummy (even over Hapa) to "feeling townie vibes" just from two one-liner posts where grush seems like giving up? That's a scummy attitude to being in a bad spot, not a townish one. And in any case, I don't understand how two one-liners can change someone's mind after seeing him as the most scummy player based on his earlier filler. This is starting to feel like a desperate last attempt by two cornered scum..... After all, once grush flips scum, Lazermonkey would be in a really hard spot to take the game.
##Vote grush57
And I was roleblocked once more.... It's only scummy if I would have a really strong scum read on grush. And if you actually did read my filter, I do have a stronger scum read on Jay for the the time being... And if it really is that obvious scummy in your opinion, why do you think I'm even trying to defend grush? Wouldn't it be better if I just bussed him then?
Well, you had a stronger scumread on grush than Hapa yesterday, and now it's apparently gone (or greatly diminished) just because grush posted two posts where he was almost ready to concede. Does that sound like a town or scum mindset to you? And even if he actually *did* something townish now, it's just stupid to abandon everything before it and think he's town based on two posts. Your sudden change of opinion for such a nonexistent reason seems more like you're grush's teammate and going for a final effort before conceding. I at least can't imagine I'd change my mind around like that if I were in your situation as town.
Bussing is a good scum tactic, but not always the best option. The game gets harder for scum as time goes on and if your situation is that bad to begin with, it might be better to risk it than to try delaying for more time. Dunno, that's just WIFOM anyway. What matters is what each player has actually done in this game, not what they might have done instead.
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On January 25 2013 20:31 Lazermonkey wrote:@Jay's response 1. I don't understand your logic here. Why is SlOosh flipping SK changing your read on Hopeless again? 2. My point still stands. 3. Okay, fair enough. 4. But why do you keep tunneling grush then? You get response that you say is scummy but yet you don't vote him... Also: Scum slip? : ) Indicating grush is scum this game.
My read on Hopeless changed as well because he flipped SK instead of scum. It would have been very unlikely that both Sloosh and Hopeless were scum, since they were the two opposing wagons for the day. But since Sloosh flipped SK, it made much more sense for Hopeless to be scum than if Sloosh had flipped scum. What's scummy about this? It's very simple logic. Your logic is what's questionable here for not understanding the basic situation.
Lol, nice catch  Surely it's grush+Jay with that, haha... Actually Jay *is* weirdly certain about grush being scum with that wording, but it could be just overconfidence in his read. I'm fairly certain grush is scum too, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that he IS scum.
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Where have the bugs gone :/
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On January 26 2013 04:17 wherebugsgo wrote:
supposing LM is town and has come to the conclusion that grush + jay are the scum it would make far more sense for his vote to be against grush, rather than with grush.
Yeah, especially because a big part of his case against Jay is based on grush flipping scum...... What's the point of lynching Jay first then?
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And I wonder why Jay has his vote on Lazer too. He's been pushing grush for the longest time but apparently never really wants to lynch him. This points to a grush+Jay team, although it only makes sense to lynch grush first in that case.
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On January 26 2013 04:23 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 04:02 Xatalos wrote:On January 25 2013 17:08 Lazermonkey wrote:On January 25 2013 14:56 Xatalos wrote:
Lazermonkey, how did you go from grush as definitely most scummy (even over Hapa) to "feeling townie vibes" just from two one-liner posts where grush seems like giving up? That's a scummy attitude to being in a bad spot, not a townish one. And in any case, I don't understand how two one-liners can change someone's mind after seeing him as the most scummy player based on his earlier filler. This is starting to feel like a desperate last attempt by two cornered scum..... After all, once grush flips scum, Lazermonkey would be in a really hard spot to take the game.
##Vote grush57
And I was roleblocked once more.... It's only scummy if I would have a really strong scum read on grush. And if you actually did read my filter, I do have a stronger scum read on Jay for the the time being... And if it really is that obvious scummy in your opinion, why do you think I'm even trying to defend grush? Wouldn't it be better if I just bussed him then? Well, you had a stronger scumread on grush than Hapa yesterday, and now it's apparently gone (or greatly diminished) just because grush posted two posts where he was almost ready to concede. Does that sound like a town or scum mindset to you? And even if he actually *did* something townish now, it's just stupid to abandon everything before it and think he's town based on two posts. Your sudden change of opinion for such a nonexistent reason seems more like you're grush's teammate and going for a final effort before conceding. I at least can't imagine I'd change my mind around like that if I were in your situation as town. Bussing is a good scum tactic, but not always the best option. The game gets harder for scum as time goes on and if your situation is that bad to begin with, it might be better to risk it than to try delaying for more time. Dunno, that's just WIFOM anyway. What matters is what each player has actually done in this game, not what they might have done instead. Yay, Xata is here. Naw, I never said I got a town read on grush. I said I got town vibes from his post. He is still my 2:d scum read atm, not as scummy as Jay but still probebly scum. I have played like 3/4(don't really remember o.O) games with him this far and I don't think I've ever seen him be emotional before. Obviously, that's not exactly alignment indicative, however I get the impression that he actually meant the words he wrote. I want to lynch Jay today because my read on him is faaar stronger and that will give us an extra 72 to determine grush's alignment. You have any more thoughts on him? What's your take on his interactions with Hapa for example? Don't think you've mentioned them yet.
Hmm... Alright, I can see why you'd try to get your stronger read lynched first. I just got the impression that grush had went from total scum to null/townish for you in a span of few minutes (those two posts by grush). But clearly that's not the case, you just had a slight town impression or something. I still don't get why though.
Well, it does look like Hapa is being pretty lenient with Jay. For example:
On January 13 2013 11:16 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2013 11:04 Hapahauli wrote:On January 13 2013 11:02 jaybrundage wrote:On January 13 2013 10:01 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Jay
Please answer my question. Why are you pushing Kush out of one side of your mouth, then proposing a Sloosh RNG lynch out of the other? It reads a lot like you don't give a shit about who dies. Well I just didnt like Kushs post it rubbed me the wrong way way play detrimental on purpose. Does it make him scum? No. But it does make him anti town as fuck again I why put up with bull shit like that. If you dont address it upfront people try to get away with shit like that. I stated this in my reply to Xalatos. Also as to the RNG lynch exactly what i stated It was to create discussion. I heard a vet mention it and decided to try it out. I mean I state in the post its for discussion. Seems like your nitpicking hapa. And while i was writing this you discovered the post to Xalatos. zzzzz Fair enough. Though at this stage of the game, discussion seems to be going well enough to not have to resort to a random-lynch or other discussion-generating plays. There are several interesting things to discuss right now. In particular, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on Hopeless, as well as the pressure on Grush at the moment. I have no idea. Im assuming its a meta case. I dont recall playing with grush although the name is familiar. I look forward to his case tho. His response to it is odd. A vote for a vote i guess? Dont know what ot make if it.
Although another explanation is that Jay is a lynchbait in general...
Then there's this:
On January 22 2013 10:44 jaybrundage wrote:
Welp Zentor died told that bastard to post >.<
I haven't really thought of hapa much as scum but you guys bring up some good points . His lack of posting is a pretty big warning sign. Also as Ziggler pointed out Hapa hates people lurking and he always does his best to prod the town and push the town and drive discussion This game I havent seen that from him.
Also the fact that hapa hasn't been shot is suspect. However the same can be said of WBG as both are vets that know how to play a good town.
The more I look over hapa the less I see him as town and the more scummy he looks.
However grush is also really scummy his consistent lack of contributing and last day he threw his vote to the side he didn't even want a choice in deciding the lynch candidate. Like what the hell is that?
Im going to have to look things over again. But Iamp is making some good sense.
##Vote Hapahauli
It feels like a really sheepish vote. And would certainly fit the criteria of a plausible bussing play - suddenly coming to the conclusion that Hapa is scummy after it has become the general opinion already, then voting Hapa off-handedly while pushing grush at the same time. I think it would make much more sense for him to vote grush at that point, but he just went with Hapa despite never wanting to lynch him before (although he did show some suspicion about Hapa not being shot yet).
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On January 26 2013 04:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
right, if grush's motivation for lynching jay is that it would put jay in a winnable spot, it makes sense.
I actually think I agree with that. Both grush and jay are afk currently, if they don't want to pull their weight on this then they're both the scum.
I think that's a very possible scenario. After all if we lynch grush today and he flips scum, scum would still win tomorrow if we lynched Lazer then. It would make a lot of sense for grush to be pushing Jay right now if they were to be the remaining scum.
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On January 26 2013 04:31 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 04:12 Xatalos wrote:On January 25 2013 20:31 Lazermonkey wrote:@Jay's response 1. I don't understand your logic here. Why is SlOosh flipping SK changing your read on Hopeless again? 2. My point still stands. 3. Okay, fair enough. 4. But why do you keep tunneling grush then? You get response that you say is scummy but yet you don't vote him... Also: You forget to mention that the person i tunneled in British MM was a town. Scum slip? : ) Indicating grush is scum this game. My read on Hopeless changed as well because he flipped SK instead of scum. It would have been very unlikely that both Sloosh and Hopeless were scum, since they were the two opposing wagons for the day. But since Sloosh flipped SK, it made much more sense for Hopeless to be scum than if Sloosh had flipped scum. What's scummy about this? It's very simple logic. Your logic is what's questionable here for not understanding the basic situation. Lol, nice catch Surely it's grush+Jay with that, haha... Actually Jay *is* weirdly certain about grush being scum with that wording, but it could be just overconfidence in his read. I'm fairly certain grush is scum too, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that he IS scum. No, because it's diferent in his situation. He actually called Hopeless slight town independant of SlOosh alignment. Most of you guys just said that Hopeless were looking scummy but SlOosh was likelier scum. It was quite clear that they both couldn't be scum so then it makes sense to first have a town read on Hopeless but then change your mind once he actually flips SK. For Jay, I feel he just saw everyone going after Hopeless and thought that because ''everyone is using this SlOosh flipped SK argument, then why can't I?'' when it in fact doesn't make any sense to change your read in that position.
In fact, I think I get your point now. There's a sense of falseness in the way how Jay changes his read on Hopeless. It almost feels like he forgot he had a slight town read on Hopeless in the first place and just goes with the flow of the thread, to think that Hopeless is more likely scum after Sloosh flipped SK. It's always possible that he changed his mind in between and never mentioned it, but it's also a strong possiblity that he had no read to begin with and just messed with presenting his fake-reads.
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grush and/or Jay, it would be most welcome to hear your thoughts on the things we have discussed today.
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If it's grush+Jay.... Then I must say that Jay has done well to survive this long without almost any suspicions, considering he usually gets lynched early. grush, on the other hand, has put in very close to zero effort so far and I'm actually wondering why he's still alive.
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On January 26 2013 10:52 wherebugsgo wrote:
where the fuck is xata?
Xata I want to know if you think jay + lazer is more likely than jay + grush.
I'm pretty much gonna rule out grush + lazer, I think that might be too simple.
Was sleeping... Look at the world clock  And yeah, it's quite late to wake up now, but I had tons of sleep debt so I didn't wake up until now (lol).
I think grush+Jay is most likely at this point. It just makes the most sense considering the connections between the two potential scum players. I wouldn't rule out grush+Lazer or Lazer+Jay either, though. I'm just starting to think that Lazer is becoming less likely scum recently with his much increased activity and analytical focus on scumhunting. grush and Jay, on the other hand, haven't really done anything to make themself look more townish today.
In any case, why is grush+Lazer "too simple" in your opinion? Occam's razor (simplest solution) is usually the correct one.
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On January 26 2013 11:43 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2013 20:31 Lazermonkey wrote:@Jay's response 1. I don't understand your logic here. Why is SlOosh flipping SK changing your read on Hopeless again? 2. My point still stands. 3. Okay, fair enough. 4. But why do you keep tunneling grush then? You get response that you say is scummy but yet you don't vote him... Also: You forget to mention that the person i tunneled in British MM was a town. Scum slip? : ) Indicating grush is scum this game. Eh I thought sloosh would flip scum. When he didn't and flipped SK it made sense for mafia to try to save a scum hopeless Or so i thought from my point of view. If i had been around for when hopeless started posting really townie then maybe it would of been different. I kept tunneling grush because the more people post the better you can read them. Then today what lamp said about grush made a bit of sense of him being a coin flip. But as its coming down to the line. The only thing that makes much sense is lazer and grush. WBG and Xat dont make much sense.
That second part makes sense... But how did you go from "slight town" on Hopeless to "probably scum" just because Sloosh flipped SK? It would make sense if you originally thought Hopeless was scummy, but it just feels too opportunistic to switch your read around based on how the thread is going. Most of the thread were thinking that Hopeless was likely scum now, so you just went with it despite having a townread on him before.
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On January 26 2013 20:03 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 10:52 wherebugsgo wrote:
where the fuck is xata?
Xata I want to know if you think jay + lazer is more likely than jay + grush.
I'm pretty much gonna rule out grush + lazer, I think that might be too simple.
WBG, if your only possible scum teams involve Jay (+me or grush) at this point I suggest we we kill Jay today then. ##Unvote
##Vote: jaybrundage
I actually have no clue why you+grush is "too simple" for WBG. In my opinion, grush makes most sense as scum no matter who the other scum is. There is a point to be made about you looking more townish recently, though, especially with your activity and analytical approach. That would make you+grush and you+Jay less likely and grush+Jay more likely. I don't see why WBG would "rule out" grush+you though and not you+Jay at the same time.
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On January 26 2013 11:43 jaybrundage wrote:
##Vote Grush57
As i said im fine with either grush or lazer
Don't you really have any preference? Do you care about the lynch or are you just sheeping the result?
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On January 27 2013 00:03 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 19:58 Lazermonkey wrote:On January 26 2013 11:43 jaybrundage wrote:On January 25 2013 20:31 Lazermonkey wrote:@Jay's response 1. I don't understand your logic here. Why is SlOosh flipping SK changing your read on Hopeless again? 2. My point still stands. 3. Okay, fair enough. 4. But why do you keep tunneling grush then? You get response that you say is scummy but yet you don't vote him... Also: You forget to mention that the person i tunneled in British MM was a town. Scum slip? : ) Indicating grush is scum this game. Eh I thought sloosh would flip scum. When he didn't and flipped SK it made sense for mafia to try to save a scum hopeless Or so i thought from my point of view. If i had been around for when hopeless started posting really townie then maybe it would of been different. I kept tunneling grush because the more people post the better you can read them. Then today what lamp said about grush made a bit of sense of him being a coin flip. But as its coming down to the line. The only thing that makes much sense is lazer and grush. WBG and Xat dont make much sense. You see, I think you are lying here. Note the bolded part in this post: On January 17 2013 11:19 jaybrundage wrote:On January 17 2013 10:26 slOosh wrote:
jay, you haven't objectively commented on hopeless. Right now you have him as town because you think I'm scum. That won't do. What about his posts show that he is town? Independent of you being scum voting for hopeless. I have a null tell/leaning townieon Hopeless. He has done some scummy things earlier on. However I think more recent his posting has improved like his reasoning for voting for Ruuch when he thought he might be town does make sense. It shows reasoning and his thought process. SlOosh In the small possibility that you are town. If you could give your reads on everyone and your other scum reads as well, I know that you think Hopeless and WBG are scum is there a third party that appeals to you? We have a whole day left. The more people post and be transparent the better of a chance town has towards winning. On January 17 2013 10:26 Hopeless1der wrote:On January 17 2013 09:51 jaybrundage wrote:On January 17 2013 09:08 Hopeless1der wrote:
Question the first:
Why did Hapa vote for Ruuch?
Question the second:
Why did I vote for Ruuch?
@Lamp: Do you find my read of you suspicious, based on the posting, and circumstances surrounding the replacement, of Ruuch? By which I mean, do you think it is conceivable that I would arrive at a townread of you based on the limited information available?Ill answer these. I think both of you voting for Ruunch was stupid. It was a dumb wagon. He is a completely new at this game. Doesn't know what hes doing. His late vote was completely a null tell. He doesnt know whats scummy and whats townie. He has never had experience playing this game before. He probably felt a bit overwhelmed (hence why he later quit.) So my question to you is why did you vote Ruunch? Also Ziggler why did you decide to vote SlOosh over say WBG or LM or Hopeless? I asked the questions in that manner because my reasons were completely different than Hapa's. I was doing what little I could to save Prom, short of blowing up at the thread and calling everyone stupid, which seems to be the go-to response these days. Hapa on the other hand has been touting his scum-Prom read and all of the sudden feels its a good idea to go after Ruuch as a policy lynch. I won't deny it was a stupid wagon, but I felt it was a better to lose him than Prom. I didn't read Ruuch as scum, I read him as expendable, in comparison to Prom. Hapa trying to equate our votes as being equally scummy: + Show Spoiler +On January 17 2013 05:27 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On January 17 2013 05:17 Lazermonkey wrote:Bugs, how do you go from: On January 17 2013 01:42 wherebugsgo wrote:
alright, let's go for it. I actually like Hopeless's thoughts in his last post and Lazer looks much better because he pointed out something that I noticed too; in Hopeless's last game he played somewhat similar to this.
slOosh, on the other hand, is still scum.
##unvote
##vote slOosh to On January 17 2013 04:18 wherebugsgo wrote:
alright.
I'm feeling lazy so let's just kill Hopeless. I don't think anything is going to happen in the near future to make either read stronger and so it's just best to consolidate our votes rather than continue to inflate the thread with further pointless back-and-forths.
##unvote
##vote Hopeless1der In just a couple of hours? And Hopeless didn't even say a thing during this time. Just you talking with Hapa and him calling the thread bad for not wanting to lynch Hopeless. @Hapa: did you read hopeless filter from LVIII? Yes I did. However that's only one game out of the multitude of his recent town games in which he played very aggressively. In addition, I can't rationalize his stance on iamp from a town perspective: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=392955¤tpage=52#1022Votes Ruuch, afks for the entire night cycle, comes back and says he thinks iamperfection is town for no reasoning, then proceeds to make arguments against me based on the "assumption" of iamp being town. Furthermore, he stated that he didn't understand my reasoning for voting Ruuch, which is incredibly scummy considering that he voted Ruuch himself. is a massive load of bull. I appreciate your efforts to put words in my mouth, like my "implied" super strong town read of Prom, while simultaneously disregarding Question the First. Furthermore, the "assume you're town" was specifically TO iamperfection because he asked me to explain myself. Are you going to jump down his throat for this post?: On January 16 2013 06:10 iamperfection wrote:
Do you still mantain he is scum?
If he was scum he would have had access to other players in order to coach him. If you look at his posts he is clearly lost and has no clue what he is doing.
Ill have to go back to the vote swaping when I get home because I now know that people were jumping from town to town. Or does he get a free pass because he was speaking about himself? Anyways, it seems I need to look towards self-preservation ##Unvote: Lazermonkey
##Vote: SlOosh
On January 17 2013 10:14 iamperfection wrote:
so what was your reasoning for your town read on me hopeless? Primarily based on Ruuch's limited interactions with the thread. @Hapa given what Hopeless said. Why did you vote for Ruunch? If you thought Prom was scum? You see, it actually doesn't make any sense for you to be swapping your reads on Hopeless just because SlOosh slips SK. From scum PoV SlOosh looks just like a townie, so why would you actually change your read (town hopeless -> scum hopeless) because SlOosh flipped SK? Had SlOosh been town and Hopeless been scum, scum would have been just as inclined to save Hopeless as if Hopeless were scum and SlOosh SK. I think this logical faliure is a quite strong proof of that you cannot be town... Does it make sense logically no it doesn't. But due to my absent in the game with internet problems. I felt it better to sheep vets I had town reads on them to refuse to lynch someone I had a mostly null read on. While it's not optimal play I wasn't confident in my own reads to go against some vets I had a town read on. Also I'm in NYC for some of the weekend for my aunts 25 anniversary. So hopefully I can be a bit more active. Xatalos what's your opinions on the scum team? Do you think that Grush Lazer if the most likely. The only other one I can think of that would make sense would be WBG Lazer.
If you read one of my latest posts, you'd see that I'm considering grush+you the most likely combination. grush+Lazer is possible, but the connections between you and grush look worse (you hesitating so much to vote him while still pushing him, grush attempting to gain cred for you by voting for you earlier and now backing off to WBG...).
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It's so easy to explain in-thread inactivity with RL stuff :/ I guess it's better than having no reason at all (looking at certain players), but it's still annoying.
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Btw Jay, why do you include WBG in your scum choices? Wasn't he a good townread for you?
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No, I don't think Lazer is our best choice. Combined with my townread on Kush, Lazer's recent active participation and grush's reluctance to do anything useful even now at LYLO, I think it's clear that grush > Lazer. I'm not sure about Lazer/Jay, either one of them could be scum, but I'm leaning Jay for reasons already mentioned. Why Lazer suddenly, WBG?
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EPT
