On February 02 2013 12:22 Aperture Science wrote: P.S. I also haven't seen what GreY has done so I can't comment on his stuff.
It's right next to your stuff in the spreadsheet, how did you miss it?
So Aperture, what about Nova and Rock? Just skim their filter, don't do a super uber detailed analysis. Tell me your "gut feeling" about them, and why your gut on Stutters is stronger than they are.
/G
On February 02 2013 12:52 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote: You say "Blatant Contradiction bla bla bla" +7 Yet on another one you put "Can you please post an opinion once?" +1
Why is exactly the 1st one +7 and the other one +1 ? Why is that contradiction scummier times 7, instead of maybe a change of mind or townie mistake, while not contributing nor scumhunting like in the 2nd one is just +1 ?
Etc for the rest of the posts basically, or his play in general
/G
On February 02 2013 11:30 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote: Nova should be free to step on the "Who is the 2nd scum?" discussion as well, I haven't seen him in it in like ever
/G
On February 02 2013 11:26 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote: I'd really like to see what Stutters has to say, and see him make a stance and analysis on who he thinks is the 2nd scum
He spent most of T1 Attack Phase implying Rock was that scum, and next Suck. Now that Aperture "attacked" him, he OMGUSed, even when he said Aperture was likely town, and he was not even convinced by my case (like....my case was super awesome and persuasive, if he was starting to get suspicious of Aperture it should have been there).
On February 01 2013 07:32 Stutters695 wrote: The case against aperture is good however two things concern me about it. First is your timing although this is a very minor point because with how few attackers there are. You said in your case that you had already given him extra time so why not post it twelve hours into the phase instead of less than an hour before the deadline?
The other is that we still haven't seen grey and earlier you guys made it sound like iGrok trolls early. I'd have to check his meta for that but I don't have the time at the moment.
I'll look into it, but I think cross is so obviously scum he must die first.
So what is it? Is Appy 2nd scum? If so, what do you agree about my case, and what did exactly not convince you, and how did that change if it changed at all?
What about Suck and Rock? They are town then? Care to explain why they are town then? Remember, if you think 1 guy is scum then everybody else is town, and that changes some reads drastically at times I want to see how they change yours.
/G
/G[/QUOTE]
Quoting this so it's easy to reference. My aversion to thinking Aperture as scum came from iGroks trolling and not seeing Grey post anything yet. If iGrok wasnt a hydra I would have backed that case (still would have been apprehensive due to the timing, but again that was minor since there is no voting in this game). I agree with your case and I would add the following:
His analysis of me: it's almost identical to his analysis of bin. We've both "flip flopped" (although my flips were pretty clearly justified if he had actually taken the time to read the posts in context) and we're derailing the thread, and lying about our decks.
Holes in his case on me:
Line 17 I'm scummy for being cautious of MA, however I didn't ever say I was cautious of it. I was indifferent to if it was t1 or t2 since it didn't affect my deck.
Line 25 They say I'm scummy for talking MtG when it was in response to a question I didn't quote. Again it's only scummy because he's doing post by post instead of in context.
Line 30 Again more misrepresentation, however my post wasnt clear so I don't hold this against him. It should have read more likely to be town, not that he is.
Lines 31/33 Addressed this in the thread but again it is only scummy because of a lack of context and this was his main point.
And so on and so forth(I'll do the rest of requested, but I think it should be pretty obvious how bad this analysis is at this point).
The only saving grace for AS is when Grey posts, I feel some sincerity. However since Grey's main stance is on me and entirely based off of misrepresentation he's my choice for the second scum right now.
I don't think Suck is scum. Although marv isn't paying like he was in LIX it feels sincere and honest. RH I'm not so sure of but by virtue of thinking AS is scum I'm leaning lazy town on them. I'll be checking his filter but I don't see nearly the scum motivation I do from ASs posts.
On January 30 2013 07:06 Nova_Terra wrote: If there isnt muh additional posting and help made by crossfire and stutters by tomorrow, i will be significantly more worried about those two.
Well. Worried? Or not worried? Why?
I currently think that crossfire is more suspicious. His plying an antitown card 1 minute before deadline without saying anything, and then his getting mad seemed very fake agnflagsbfnsisnfnatbf.
On January 31 2013 15:47 Nova_Terra wrote: Well i was trying to stay relatively null on CH but im having a hard time finding a scum motivation on any part of his last analysis, and its quite similar to the thoughts i was having but was unable to put them down well. BinonFire makes good points about rockhydra, who would be my 2nd priority for a hydra scum.
Just woke up and this post sprang out of the page to me: why were you trying to stay null on me? It sounds like a remarkably strange thing to do.
This is a question for Nova and if anybody else answers I will shoot you in the face. Nova, I need you to answer.
/Acro
Very good question. I've had a variety of vibes from you and not much else, and so i thought it would be better to refrain from making much out of you until i could find some better logic.
You seem to know why it's a good question. Why?
Cause around 10 seconds after i made the post i wondered if anyone was gonna ask me about that.
This post of his stood out to me. He's as inactive as I am yet calls out XF and myself for the same thing while he hasnt posted anything. Seems like he's trying to get by through doing just enough to skate by as not the lurkiest without saying anything of value.
My main concern is if he would lurk while his scumpartner lurks, possibly outing himself. In addition to the odds of a non hydra scumteam existing.
Depending on how Aperture/Nova continue this might change as AS analysis may actually be how they play and just don't see the glaring holes due to no context. This is the first time I've really looked through his filter since when I thought he was townier than XF but the lack of doing anything and flying under the radar is concerning. I'd say AS is still my number one read but im a lot more interested in Nova now.
I'm with my girl so I' ll be sporadically popping in. Gonna try to read skim of novas old games
Sorry I haven't been available today and yesterday - it's been a very weird couple of days. It's a bit unfortunate that I don't see myself living another day - I have Seer's Vision, something that would nigh-confirm Aperture Science, referring to his claim that his current hand is awful. It would also be pretty handy to validate Stutters' play.
This is just a precaution so that the scum team doesn't decide to get all clever and leave me alive in the hopes of mislynching me. If I'm alive tomorrow, I'm going to reveal everyone's hands, and then together we can decide on what to discard.
As for actual analysis, I'm quite unimpressed with Aperture's second spreadsheet PBPA. First off, it's hosted in the same workbook as his PBPA on me, so it's clear that he's not just updating these as he reads, but is rather making them as he is forced to present cases. Furthermore, bouncing reads off of your other hydra head =/= using a constantly updating simultaneous-entry Google Doc where you can just default to agreeing with what the other person said already. Look at it: if iGrok's blank entries are 0s, then they differ by more than 2 on only 3 posts, or only 8% of Stutters total posts.
The beauty of having multiple people go over a filter is that they notice different things about it, and they often find different things about it suspicious. Scum are known to have trouble making good cases on townies, and what do you do when you're having trouble? You get lazy!
Now Aperture Science is claiming that between the two of them, their reads on Stutters were both independent and also almost exactly the same? Take that into consideration, along with everything else, and it looks quite scummy.
In fact, I'd be quite willing to bet that if we could get a look at Aperture Science's hand, we would not see:
On February 01 2013 11:33 Aperture Science wrote: (...) and I can't do anything with this ridiculous, BULLSHIT hand.
I won a game today by casting Teferi's realm early, and that was a nuisance for everyone else but they didn't kill me, so I just ramped. Meanwhile, Maelstrom Wanderer got out and he had like 4 8/8 tramplers, and Animar was rolling strong and ended up killing the shit out of Lazav.
I have a hive mind and Teferi's Realm, so on my turn I name "Enchantments" - phasing out my Realm and Hive Mind, and then I cast Scrambleverse.
I end up with 60 points of damage, and swing to kill both remaining players. gg
On February 03 2013 06:26 Clockwork Hydra wrote: Crossfire prolly outed himself because we made a bulletproof case on him and he's BY FAR not good enough a (scum) player to wiggle out of it.
Any assumption further than that is crazy tinfoil-hat talk.
~dandel
Well if it was bulletproof, why did Suck and DFTP disagree? I agree though that any deductions based on this action are not very strong.
Stutters is blatantly drawing attention to himself with this post. He is walking up to one of the towniest townies in the game, who, as scum he knows is 100% town and doesn't have the lingering doubts of other townies that Gonzaw might just be faking it all. He then says "POKE, pay attention to me!" for no fucking reason at all.
There are very few scum who feel comfortable drawing attention to themselves and they are invariably known as some of the best scum players on the forum. Stutters is either an absolute natural at playing scum, or he is town.
PS. He doesn't just do it that once either. He pokes you too for no reason except to get your reaction... and later pokes me for, in his own mind, letting him off the hook when I had said I wouldn't do that. Now he is either a fucking mastermind scum in his very first game as scum ever, or he is a townie towner.
/Acro
I would probably have agreed with this wholeheartedly a couple of weeks ago, but just recently Xatalos, as mafia, in Dessert Mafia did a similar thing. He constantly drew attention to himself. Xatalos is pretty new himself (or, perhaps has played 1 game more or something) and while I respect and like him (we've shared many PMs in the past), he's not yet a mafia savant or anything. Yet he did the same. So I don't think it's as cast-iron as you make it sound here.
anyway, I'm not saying this to shed suspicion on stutters, because i've not even properly filtered him yet, but it's maybe not quite as strong a heuristic as you think.
-marvelbabe
I proably know Xata better than you do. Xata != Stutters. Not in a billion years.
1. In Xata's first game as scum he could borrwo from awesome sauce modkll worthy shit like my asha clame. 2. In Dessert Xata's scumbuddy wasn't as wuseless as xfire.
I think I got most of that right. Either way, I am right.
I'll try to make sense of that when I'm sobre, but why are you running EDH when there is absolutely no need to?
Also, you said you'd love to run mana barbs, but weren't allowed to, yet now claim you have mana barb. Also, if you play mana barbs 4 zombies will say hello. They might say more, but probably they'll be feasting on your brane.
EPT
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