EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 7
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I think that shz is scum. However, I was also very confident that Spag and Omni were scum, and they weren't. In addition, by lynching them, we've lost 2 potentially helpful townies. I don't like the possibility of having another mislynch on another semiactive townie, leaving us with a higher and higher lurker:active ratio. If shz is a mislynch, we are left with a 7 person town with at least 3 total lurkers, an extremely bad situation. Given that there's almost certainly some lurking scum, I feel like the scummiest lurker (Kickstart/FatChunk/Syl) might be a better lynch. On the other hand, I think that shz has the highest chance of flipping scum. I really need to evaluate the risk:reward of lynching a lurker vs shz, I'm not decided yet. | ||
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silly smilies | ||
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You have the benefit of hindsight looking at Spag's lynch. The case made on him was good, a lot of people sheeped it. I also disagree with you on shz; he is playing scummy right now. Just because you have different reads from Kick doesn't make him scum. I'm not opposed to lynching him like any other lurker, but I don't think a strong scum read is justified. | ||
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- kickstart - orangeremi - fatchunk - sylencia By looking at their filters, fatchunk and Orangeremi look the worst. I agree with things that have been said about Orange, he's been a useless lurker this whole game, hasn't taken any difficult positions. FatChunk said that he'll be more useful d2, but hasn't done anything. He also jumped onto Omni right when his death was looking certain, specifically citing his reasoning as "giving the most information". I'm inclined to go for Orange tomorrow. | ||
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On December 25 2012 00:33 yamato77 wrote: Shz should not be your strongest scum read. My read on kick is a lot of meta. He is playing the complete opposite of his last game. He looks more like the kick from NMM XXXI where he was scum with you. He lurked a lot and made easy to justify scum reads on people already under suspicion. He kept out of the spotlight as much as possible. His town meta is aggressive and accusatory. He is like me. Paranoid and suspicious. This is not the same kick. Not to mention him being a lurker. Believe me, this is not a lurker lynch. We get some red blood when kick's head rolls. In XXXI, he wasn't lurking nearly to the extent of this game, though. (In fact, 7 pg filter in XXXI vs 10pg filter in XXXII vs 2 pg filter here). I'm inclined to believe that he has real life issues involved. It's possible that he's just trying to change his scum meta, but I doubt he would have posted "DON'T LURK LURKING BAD" if he was planning on lurking. On aggressiveness, he was very aggressive in XXXI as well. I think that this game is just very different from both of his metas overall and that we can't discern much from it. Why do you disagree on shz? | ||
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I've tried to give the three candidates for today an unbiased look to clear my head. I'm going to start with Kick (ha). I still think that his activity in and of itself is null. He doesn't lurk this hard as either alignment, which makes me think that there are IRL things involving him. There are two posts that really bothered me (other than his total sheep onto Spag, which looks pretty bad): On December 22 2012 15:37 Kickstart wrote: Cakepie being pretty ridiculous right now. First he basically claims blue. Then he spouts off a bunch of crap about who he thinks might be scum yet puts a vote on me who he gives a null read on (lol?) and he says I do nothing while saying a case can be made on shz, when I have already made a case and was the first to state suspicion of shz with this post: + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 00:04 Kickstart wrote: So I took a look through some filters and the person who stuck out most to me was SHZ. Just a quick lookthrough of his posts shows you that he been very wishy-washy on everything and committed to absolutely nothing. In my mind there are only 2 options for this sort of play, 1 is a timid towny who is unsure of themselves, 2 is scum trying to leave themselves options to try and work their way out of bad commitments. Since I believe this is SHZ's first game I am somewhat inclined to think that he is just a timid towny, but then I look at his voting and his justification behind them (read: NONE) and it seems he doesn't care at all about who gets lynched. Townys should worry very much about who gets lynched because they do not want to lynch town, even first time players know this and typically show that they care about who gets lynched. His votes are a big issue with me and I read them as scummy right now because to me it seems SHZ does not care who gets lynched (it is typical of mafia to not care who gets lynched, as long as it is town getting lynched), look at his vote posts: He takes every chance to hop on whatever bandwagon is popular at the moment, providing no reason for being on any of them. Given this I think he is the person I am most suspicious of at the moment and want to see some real reads and commitment, not wishy-washy posts that don't commit himself to anything. @SHZ Why did you jump on every bandwagon without giving any reasons at all for why you think those players are scummy? Do you have any current scum reads that you would be willing to push instead of sheeping? I also reiterated this read and stated that I felt I would be kept around because I am easy lurker lynch-bait here: And here cakepie is, saying he has a null read on me, listing tons of other slight scum reads, and throwing a vote on me. Not sure what he is doing, but the fact that he is voting me instead of one of his listed scum reads is suspicious. This really reminds me of when he tried to push an Oats mislynch in XXXI, and I'm not even entirely sure why. He's almost throwing suspicion onto cakepie for being 'bad' (even though he actually misunderstood the rules), something that he did to Oats. It's especially odd that he takes the time to put suspicion onto cake instead of looking at other people, like Corazon, who he just earlier was attacking Spag for having a town read on. This post feels similar to this post from XXXI: + Show Spoiler + On November 25 2012 21:27 Kickstart wrote: First off your format for your vote is wrong, secondly saying you are "intensely serious" is not a case on cheesecake. Frankly this is ridiculous and so anti-town so far that if it continues I don't think we should keep you around because this is either scum play or bad town play. The beginning of your filter is all fluff, which isn't that big of a deal since it is the start of the game and I don't really expect anything amazing from anyone, but then you post: I already told you before, if you are suspicious of someone you need to make a better post than that, you need to make a case against the person providing reasons for why they are suspicious. Then there is this: Why would you bring up "think about if I was scum", that is not a town mindset. Scum are the ones who would say something like that, all town needs to do is let their actions show that they are being pro-town, and so far you arent. And then the final straw for me so far is this: So you say yeah ok me saying cheese is scum without providing any reasoning is a bit extreme, THEN YOU DO IT ANYWAYS????? This is unacceptable. I suggest you start making some real cases, untill then: ##vote: Oatsmaster On December 24 2012 05:02 Kickstart wrote: Why the list post ;/. And why do that and say you are convinced we will find connections when you could look for them yourself and then post those? I was waiting for you to do something to convince me that you might be town but that post wasn't it. I'm not even sure what it is about this post that bothers me. The tone of this or something just feels weird. The last sentence feels more like scum justifying his artificial read than town honestly scum hunting, maybe? "Why the list post :/" also just feels like reaching for easy justification of his read by pointing and shouting "list! list!". Maybe someone else sees why this post bothers me, I don't know if I've quite put my finger on it. I don't like how fast this wagon is taking off, and I think all 3 lurkers need to be posting today, so I'd like to hear from FatChunk on who he thinks we should lynch: ##Vote: FatChunk | ||
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My lynch candidate will depend a lot on how they act today. This is why I don't think that we should form a consensus on Kick too early, FC and Orange need to post too. Right now my ordering is Kick ==> FC ==> Orange, but that will change. What I see in FatChunk: He's disappeared when the pressure is off of him, which is troubling. He posted a lot of fluff that didn't really help at the beginning of the game, but hasn't done anything since then. He resisted the Spag lynch hardcore, possibly trying to look good after the flip, and jumped on the Omni wagon, specifically lynching for information. This specific post feels weird: On December 23 2012 06:15 FatChunk wrote: I'm just curious, why would you assume it's scum RB? ... The way that he prefaces his question with "I'm just curious" makes it sound like he's trying hard to distance himself from the scum rb. If he is the scum rb, he would be nervous about being too curious about the roleblocks. I know that I (and several other players) would just directly ask him the question, using curiosity as an excuse feels bad. Like the Kickstart posts, not a dealbreaker, just something that felt weird. I'm really waiting for the lurkers to start posting. | ||
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On December 27 2012 01:25 cDgCorazon wrote: To me, their activity levels (Kick, Orange, and Shz) are all kind of at the same point. However, Shz has shown slightly more promise with some of his recent posts. You guys have said it: kick's lack of activity is not a trademark of his town play. If he was only inactive for a couple of days around Christmas, that would be ok. However, he has basically been a non-factor in the scumhunt since D1. In my mind, it is Orange or Kick. I would be happy with lynching either of them today, and the other one next. They both have not stepped up enough to the scumhunt to be a part of this town. I've already said this: Kick's lack of activity is not a trademark of any of his play. His meta does not support this play from either alignment, it's a null point. Why not FatChunk? | ||
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Orange: On December 24 2012 02:37 Orangeremi wrote: I'd like to argue that I haven't made a case in over 100. All game, even. Why did you post this? Still waiting for our lurkers to come out with who they want to lynch... | ||
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On December 27 2012 08:08 Aquanim wrote: So, Orange, shz, Kickstart, and FatChunk, who do you think we should be lynching today? FTFY | ||
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On December 27 2012 13:42 shz wrote: ... This is really hard to get a grip on and in no way I am confidend in this days lynch. Fuck. Were you more confident in the other lynches? Seriously, this is the definition of the "hand-wringy scum thing" that marv talked about with Kickstart in XXXI. It's a lot easier to take a stand as scum if you act really uncertain about it, and that's exactly what he's doing when he's pressed for reads. Shz hasn't been confident in a single lynch all game. He nearly completely ignored the lynches d1 and 2, and didn't even vote for someone d2. Not only is this the scum trait of being uninvolved in lynches, it shows how the above quote is bs. There's no reason for shz to act all uncertain about todays lynch when he hasn't participated in any other lynch. By doing this, he also excuses himself from giving any confident scumreads, like he's been avoiding all game. He's being pressed for reads so he chooses the easy one but acts nervous to make himself look better when he flips town. I would be up for a shz lynch. At the very least, I'd have a very hard time voting Kickstart because of this. | ||
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On December 27 2012 08:01 Orangeremi wrote: I found it difficult to knock any holes in the case. As town, starting the game with a vote for someone is a great way to trigger discussion and get things off in the right direction. Very possibly his intention. I see no townie explanation for the way he voted Corazon, possibly laziness. With Spag, he just hopped on the wagon. Nothing special for scum or town. And I think his vote for Chrom is justified to throw another opinion/point of view on the table (although rather poorly, not that I'm one to talk.) I don't understand why he would give up on defending Omni. His defense was perfectly sound, especially when Omni flipped town. Overall, I'd suppose a scum vibe. Although looking over his posts it wasn't at all my initial thought. His post voting for Chrom seemed townie to me, and his more recent advocation to go after lurkers seems so as well. ... Why is shz a scum vibe if you see all these townie things in his filter? | ||
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