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Germany2686 Posts
1.
On December 22 2012 08:58 cakepie wrote:
Sylencia: got a free pass D1 for being away, but had better start contributing. Looking okay so far in N1.5
Granted, not a strong one.
You even concrete the null-read later:
On December 22 2012 10:24 cakepie wrote:The away / heavy lurking {Kickstart, Sylencia, OrangeRemi} are null-, with kickstart being of most concern. Their play on D2 (or lack thereof) will determine greatly how my read of them changes.
Yup. I was wrong.
2.
On December 22 2012 09:08 cakepie wrote:I was roleblocked.
I didn't claim you were a roleblocker, I said you claimed that you've been roleblocked, like me, and someone else.
On December 24 2012 14:25 cakepie wrote:
I want shz to build us a new case or two so we can tear it down.
So you want me to make a case, so you can "tear it down" and make a case against me for that?
On December 24 2012 15:30 cakepie wrote:Are you going to build a case against Chromatically on D3? Who are your top two candidates that you have the most suspicions about?
On December 24 2012 15:30 cakepie wrote:
Notice I say "concerns" rather than "suspects" -- other than shz, it is still incredibly difficult to build a case on the others that would stick well. Such is the sorry state of our town.
On December 24 2012 08:42 shz wrote:
Chromatically could be very good mafia. He has a good stance inside the active contributors, he can dictate opinions. It could be a very good strategy to have one scum who is offensive and active while the other two are lurking and blending in.
[...]
My vote does not matter anyway, but I'm gonna go with my gut for now and really hope we either start giving lurker shit or they come out and contribute more so we can actually get something done.
##Vote: Chromatically
If I could have, I would have. Like you, I got a feeling, but not much more. Because it is still hard to get a case on anyone. But, I don't think that really pursuing Chroma is a good move at the moment, while there are still so many lurkers lurking hard. We have to get them to post more and look what we find.
It seems that your big case against me is, that I don't have one. Thats not pretty strong.
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If pursuing Chroma is not a good move, why did you vote for him?
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Germany2686 Posts
On December 24 2012 22:39 Sylencia wrote:
If pursuing Chroma is not a good move, why did you vote for him?
On December 24 2012 08:42 shz wrote:
My vote does not matter anyway, but I'm gonna go with my gut for now and really hope we either start giving lurker shit or they come out and contribute more so we can actually get something done.
##Vote: Chromatically
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On December 24 2012 22:43 shz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 22:39 Sylencia wrote:
If pursuing Chroma is not a good move, why did you vote for him? Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 08:42 shz wrote:
My vote does not matter anyway, but I'm gonna go with my gut for now and really hope we either start giving lurker shit or they come out and contribute more so we can actually get something done.
##Vote: Chromatically
On December 24 2012 22:37 shz wrote:
But, I don't think that really pursuing Chroma is a good move at the moment, while there are still so many lurkers lurking hard. We have to get them to post more and look what we find.
? The lurkers were around before, as they are now, what has changed since day 2?
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Germany2686 Posts
I don't get the question?
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On December 24 2012 21:31 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 20:43 Orangeremi wrote:On December 24 2012 18:07 Aquanim wrote:On December 24 2012 17:51 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm flabbergasted that Omni turned town. This really puts a wrench in things for me. Well, given that he has, who are your main suspects now? Chrom's going to come under pressure (understandably) but I do think we need to pressure the less active players come next Day phase. I'm really thrown for a loop right now and don't know what to think. Looking over filters and after recent events I'm stumped  That wasn't really an answer to my question. Care to try again?
I'm not really looking to throw names out there if I'm not confident after that lynch. I'm sticking with my statement that lurkers need to come out before anything else.
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During day 2, you voted for Chrom.
Now, you're saying that pursuing Chrom is not a good move.
Why have you done a 180 on your actions?
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11589 Posts
Okay so I haven't exactly gone through every inch of people's filters yet but at the moment I think I have one fairly excellent scum read.
Kickstart is not like this as town. As town in NMM XXXII he was in-your-face and had good reads. This game he's voted Spag and Shz, someone I do not have a current scum read on. Day one I would have expected town kick to oppose that lynch because it wasn't a good lynch but instead he sheeps along like he's some newbie the rest of you keep saying you are. Only he's not. And then day 2 his best scum read is shz? That just smells like mafia attempting to look like they're scum hunting. I mean seriously, shz is not that scummy. Kick start knows better and him pushing this shit is totally unacceptable. He is my lynch day 3 no question.
The next person to look at would be Orange. This dude has basically admitted to doing nothing this game. A lot of you have talked about being noobs and feeling unsure but he's just straight up admitting to having zero original scum reads. This excuse does not fly in mafia. Justifying being useless by saying that your suspicions are all covered by other people is not good enough. Stop being useless and making excuses for it. Find scum.
These are just two initial reads on lurkers. I'm working my way up the larger filters as I go.
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11589 Posts
Actually the kick read is enough to go on right now. Let's kill him.
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I have to disagree with your reasoning on Kickstart. He's not this lurky as town, yes, but he's also not this lurky as scum. His lurkiness doesn't tell us anything.
You have the benefit of hindsight looking at Spag's lynch. The case made on him was good, a lot of people sheeped it. I also disagree with you on shz; he is playing scummy right now. Just because you have different reads from Kick doesn't make him scum.
I'm not opposed to lynching him like any other lurker, but I don't think a strong scum read is justified.
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11589 Posts
On December 25 2012 00:03 Chromatically wrote:
I have to disagree with your reasoning on Kickstart. He's not this lurky as town, yes, but he's also not this lurky as scum. His lurkiness doesn't tell us anything.
You have the benefit of hindsight looking at Spag's lynch. The case made on him was good, a lot of people sheeped it. I also disagree with you on shz; he is playing scummy right now. Just because you have different reads from Kick doesn't make him scum.
I'm not opposed to lynching him like any other lurker, but I don't think a strong scum read is justified.
Shz should not be your strongest scum read.
My read on kick is a lot of meta. He is playing the complete opposite of his last game. He looks more like the kick from NMM XXXI where he was scum with you. He lurked a lot and made easy to justify scum reads on people already under suspicion. He kept out of the spotlight as much as possible. His town meta is aggressive and accusatory. He is like me. Paranoid and suspicious. This is not the same kick. Not to mention him being a lurker.
Believe me, this is not a lurker lynch. We get some red blood when kick's head rolls.
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Right now, I think our choices for today (tomorrow) are:
- kickstart
- orangeremi
- fatchunk
- sylencia
By looking at their filters, fatchunk and Orangeremi look the worst.
I agree with things that have been said about Orange, he's been a useless lurker this whole game, hasn't taken any difficult positions.
FatChunk said that he'll be more useful d2, but hasn't done anything. He also jumped onto Omni right when his death was looking certain, specifically citing his reasoning as "giving the most information".
I'm inclined to go for Orange tomorrow.
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On December 25 2012 00:33 yamato77 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2012 00:03 Chromatically wrote:
I have to disagree with your reasoning on Kickstart. He's not this lurky as town, yes, but he's also not this lurky as scum. His lurkiness doesn't tell us anything.
You have the benefit of hindsight looking at Spag's lynch. The case made on him was good, a lot of people sheeped it. I also disagree with you on shz; he is playing scummy right now. Just because you have different reads from Kick doesn't make him scum.
I'm not opposed to lynching him like any other lurker, but I don't think a strong scum read is justified. Shz should not be your strongest scum read. My read on kick is a lot of meta. He is playing the complete opposite of his last game. He looks more like the kick from NMM XXXI where he was scum with you. He lurked a lot and made easy to justify scum reads on people already under suspicion. He kept out of the spotlight as much as possible. His town meta is aggressive and accusatory. He is like me. Paranoid and suspicious. This is not the same kick. Not to mention him being a lurker. Believe me, this is not a lurker lynch. We get some red blood when kick's head rolls.
In XXXI, he wasn't lurking nearly to the extent of this game, though. (In fact, 7 pg filter in XXXI vs 10pg filter in XXXII vs 2 pg filter here). I'm inclined to believe that he has real life issues involved. It's possible that he's just trying to change his scum meta, but I doubt he would have posted "DON'T LURK LURKING BAD" if he was planning on lurking. On aggressiveness, he was very aggressive in XXXI as well. I think that this game is just very different from both of his metas overall and that we can't discern much from it.
Why do you disagree on shz?
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Germany2686 Posts
On December 24 2012 23:19 Sylencia wrote:
During day 2, you voted for Chrom.
Now, you're saying that pursuing Chrom is not a good move.
Why have you done a 180 on your actions?
I voted for him 20 mins before the end, because it didn't matter. I just wanted to make clear, that I still have a scummy feeling for him, but at the moment the lurkers are a bigger problem. Also: what is yamato going to do? We still have so much time to wait for the lurkers to come out and look for others.
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I kind of agree on Orange coming under fire. I asked him to help scumhunt but so far he has only lurked and then defended himself from lurking. There is no way he does not have any scumreads at this point in the game.
We're gonna have to get a scum lynched D3 if we want to have any chance of winning. There are so many candidates to choose from that go under the "semi-lurker" tag. I think each and everyone should come under fire on Day 3. We don't need any more unhelpful players who just serve to create chaos and blur the line between scum and bad town.
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11589 Posts
On December 25 2012 00:47 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2012 00:33 yamato77 wrote:On December 25 2012 00:03 Chromatically wrote:
I have to disagree with your reasoning on Kickstart. He's not this lurky as town, yes, but he's also not this lurky as scum. His lurkiness doesn't tell us anything.
You have the benefit of hindsight looking at Spag's lynch. The case made on him was good, a lot of people sheeped it. I also disagree with you on shz; he is playing scummy right now. Just because you have different reads from Kick doesn't make him scum.
I'm not opposed to lynching him like any other lurker, but I don't think a strong scum read is justified. Shz should not be your strongest scum read. My read on kick is a lot of meta. He is playing the complete opposite of his last game. He looks more like the kick from NMM XXXI where he was scum with you. He lurked a lot and made easy to justify scum reads on people already under suspicion. He kept out of the spotlight as much as possible. His town meta is aggressive and accusatory. He is like me. Paranoid and suspicious. This is not the same kick. Not to mention him being a lurker. Believe me, this is not a lurker lynch. We get some red blood when kick's head rolls. In XXXI, he wasn't lurking nearly to the extent of this game, though. (In fact, 7 pg filter in XXXI vs 10pg filter in XXXII vs 2 pg filter here). I'm inclined to believe that he has real life issues involved. It's possible that he's just trying to change his scum meta, but I doubt he would have posted "DON'T LURK LURKING BAD" if he was planning on lurking. On aggressiveness, he was very aggressive in XXXI as well. I think that this game is just very different from both of his metas overall and that we can't discern much from it. Why do you disagree on shz?
Shz sheer amount of effort he has put into the game so far excludes him from my initial scum reads. No scum is going to go through all the trouble to make a list post with all that useful connection information compiled. Especially not a newbie scum. I think at least two scum are lurking and the two I picked out seem like good candidates. I think kick is the better shot at flipping scum but if you guys can consolidate on Orange he's perfectly acceptable.
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Maybe, but effort put into game =/= town. Effort put into scumhunting == town, and shz hasn't done that. He didn't have use his vote at all on d2. Anyway, I don't think that we should lynch him tomorrow. I still disagree with your reasoning on Kickstart, but Orange looks good for the lynch. Why not Fatchunk?
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11589 Posts
To be honest I need more time to make better reads but at the moment Kickstart is a really good lead. I'm going to make a comprehensive case.
I'm not so sure about Orange anymore. A lot of people have pulled the noob sheep card this game and not all of them can be scum.
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11589 Posts
I would say that effort in this particular game can be a town tell. The two lynches thus far have been townie-led bandwagons with minimal scum interference. Scum have had to do nothing to secure mislynches because town has killed each other all on their own. There for, when I think about scum I think about people with small filters and almost no strong opinions, because town lynched a player in opposition to their consensus day 1.
So people who fit this bill right now are Kick, who is far more outspoken than his current filter reads when he is town, and Orange. Neither one is putting forth their own ideas on basically anything that actually matters. Shz to an extent fits this model of scum this game as well but his filter is larger, which is a point in his favor.
Fat Chunk has a small filter but it is full of his own thoughts about the game. He is putting in some serious quality, which is just as good as the quantity of some if the townier players.
At this point I don't think town should be lynching Chromatically for his tunnel of OE. It is an easy mistake to make to catch on to something you think might be scummy and then fit everything someone does into this model, and upon examination of Chroma's posting in reference to Omni, I find the confirmation bias strong with this one.
Aqua and cakepie are also the obviously town reads. I should quickly become another which gives us four strong townies to lead town to victory from here. I would say our lynches need to focus on Kick, Orange, and then Shz. If vig exists, you should take your shot at one of these players, preferably Orange or Kick.
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On December 24 2012 22:37 shz wrote:
It seems that your big case against me is, that I don't have one. Thats not pretty strong.
No, the biggest beef I have with you is the way you voted.
Just because I ask you for a case does not mean that it is the only thing I hold against you, or the basis of a case.
Other lurkers have given even less, so that would hardly be a logical way to build a case.
On December 24 2012 22:37 shz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 24 2012 14:25 cakepie wrote:
I want shz to build us a new case or two so we can tear it down.
So you want me to make a case, so you can "tear it down" and make a case against me for that?
No, I want you to make a case, which will hopefully help me and others better decide if you are town or not, but even if that does not give us a very clear read on you it will still help us decide if it would be helpful to keep you around another day on the basis of you being active as compared to the lurkers. We have our suspicions, but nothing is certain, and we must weigh the strength of any suspicions and arguments against you vs the possibility that you'd turn out to be another mislynch. If you are active and post with substance, it would be useful and informative to keep you alive for a bit still.
As for tearing cases down, I have already explained that not enough of that is happening in general. When discussing cases, it should not merely be about latching on to points that we agree on; we need to do a better job at trying to find flaws in reasoning and coming up with counterarguments in order to test the strength of each case.
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EPT
