EPT+1 Sir
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 50
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
+1 Sir | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.topwallpapersdesktop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/christmas-pictures.jpg) Even the most evil dudes need a break, so this one nightphase will span 48 hours! It's like a dayphase without lynching! And nightactions instead! Horray for Christmas! As always, PM all your nightactions to all the hosts. You just have more time to do it! Christmas! | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Mainly I just feel like an idiot right now. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
 Is this game so painful that the observers aren't even watching for the lynch to give us popcorn? | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On December 24 2012 09:22 Aquanim wrote: I imagine you feel like I did after day one Is this game so painful that the observers aren't even watching for the lynch to give us popcorn?  | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
Aqua, do you have any questions you want to ask me? | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
Aqua, Syl: On December 24 2012 06:10 Chromatically wrote: Let's examine the possibilities: Omni and shz: Omni knows for certain that he is town. He thinks shz is town, but is not sure. Obviously, he would rather lynch shz over himself, because shz at least has a chance of flipping scum. Omni would vote for shz. Omni and shz Omni knows for certain that shz is town. Obviously, he would rather get shz mislynched than have himself lynched. Omni would vote for shz. Omni and shz Omni knows for certain that shz and himself are both scum. He doesn't want either of them lynched. He might vote for shz over himself, but only if shz is under more suspicion (which he's not). Omni probably wouldn't vote for shz. Scumteam 100%. I take issue with "100%" being thrown around so carelessly again. Thoughts on this, and on Chromatically in general? | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 24 2012 12:53 cakepie wrote: Well, this is not a pretty state of affairs. We have failed to trade effectively early, and our lead in numbers, and more importantly, in activity have taken big hits. I do not see any remaining room for mislynching -- even one-for-one trades are not going to cut it now. Aqua, Syl: I take issue with "100%" being thrown around so carelessly again. Thoughts on this, and on Chromatically in general? Would scum go so all-in on a lynch they knew would flip green, when the lynch was pretty much settled anyway? I think it's unlikely. I think there's a consistent thought process behind Chromatic's play, and that its object is to lynch scum. Given the activity level of everyone else in this game, if Chromatic is scum then a) we've probably already lost and b) town does not deserve to win. He's got the most activity in this game by a fair margin. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
I think the term 100% is just a term that is being thrown around, but it isn't necessarily a tell. Generally scum are a bit more careful in what they say, they won't go about spouting incorrect facts which are due to be revealed a few hours later to show they are wrong. So I'm inclined to think this is more of a way to give impact to his case. Aqua: I can tell you who my town reads are, which are you, cake, the now threesr replacement and myself. My top suspect now goes back to Kick who was my 2nd choice in the previous day, this is due to his uncharacteristic lurking, which differs completely from his normal playstyle. Problem is, I also suspect shz pretty highly, and we have Kick accusing shz from night 1. This conflict means that there's a good chance that I would be wrong with one of the two - or they are masking their relationship well. Chrom pings on my radar a little bit, after he backtracked at the end of the day/start of the night. On December 23 2012 23:38 Chromatically wrote: [u]I do not understand how we are considering lynching lurkers (threesr/Orange) over the very scummy players in this game. On December 24 2012 09:20 Chromatically wrote: Okay, I still think that shz is scummy, but at least 2 of the mafia are hardcore lurking right now. I think that we pretty much have to lynch a lurker today. The problem is that we're basically coinflipping, but I don't think that we have any other choice. Considering shz has been a primary target throughout day 2, why should we suddenly flip over to lynching a lurker? Other than that, I really don't have a good read on most of the other remaining players. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 24 2012 13:15 Sylencia wrote: Other than that, I really don't have a good read on most of the other remaining players. How do you feel about me? Is there anything I need to clarify for you? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 24 2012 06:10 Chromatically wrote: Let's examine the possibilities: Omni and shz: Omni knows for certain that he is town. He thinks shz is town, but is not sure. Obviously, he would rather lynch shz over himself, because shz at least has a chance of flipping scum. Omni would vote for shz. Omni's late-late D2: he refused to hop onto that wagon for the sake of a chance at saving his life, choosing instead to stick to his conviction that shz was not as suspicions as other players out there, and pursuing one of those. Shz has increased his amount of activity, and perhaps Omni saw value in this, when the dearth of D3 discussion would very well be the last of our downfall. In contrast to his poor choices in D1, here he has made the VT play of taking one for the team... I just fear that the cost was too great this time around. ----- On December 24 2012 08:37 Aquanim wrote: Let's say he's dying like I think a town player would die. Like I said, though, scum might do this in hopes of last-minute deliverance. And if there was a competing wagon I'd feel a lot happier about the outcome of this day. Your vote was absolutely not required on the Omni wagon. Why did you not find a better use for it, if this is all you had to say about the way the lynch was headed? ----- On December 24 2012 13:01 cDgCorazon wrote: @Aqua/Cake: Do you feel like these lynches are scum-driven, trying to get the town to kill each other off, or are they mislynches on townies that are acting erratically or do not know how to play like a townie? Have the lynches been scum driven? I think not, except for the slim chance that Aquanim is incredibly gutsy master scum on D1 as I explored here: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 00:43 cakepie wrote: Aquanim Casting the very first vote on Corazon was stated as pressure vote, and it was effective at generating activity -- except that it devolved into havoc for a bit with threesr shitting up the thread. The corazon "scumslip" did not help either. While this was happening he did not ask Corazon any questions himself, which is a little strange to me. Perhaps the volume of resulting posts was good enough for him? Beyond that, it is his initiating and pushing forward the Spag lynch that might be the greatest cause of suspicion for anyone -- but Mocsta also thought it was a good case. I too have no right to fault Aquanim for his case, which I found to agree with many of my observations and suspicions. After that, he has remained inviting and open to scrutiny about the D1 mislynch when answering questions about it. He has continued to pressure the most inactive players and most recently has been advancing his suspicions on OrangeRemi. This, continuing from his D1 performance, leans toward town behavior. What is interesting to note is that he started two of the three wagons that actually got anywhere on D1. (the other being on threesr, who pretty much made himself an inviting target). Overall, I find it much easier to explain his behavior by a townie hypothesis than by a scum hypothesis. Leading a wagon is far too conspicuous and risky, and to do it twice in one day phase has got to be absolutely nuts or balls of steel. I shall record my thoughts on the scum hypothesis here for information and scrutiny: + Show Spoiler + If Aquanim were scum trying to influence/direct town, the scumteam would be making an exceptionally daring and risky play -- although the way town has played (and I do not exclude myself from blame here) actually makes it viable to run this risk, it was difficult to know this in advance. Continuing the scum hyphothesis, with Aquanim aiming to lead the town lynches, the remaining scum would have to run interference and cause confusion and/or lend support to the target wagons. Out of all the possibilities for that, I think it is most likely that threesr is the scumbuddy designated to draw attention, run interference where necessary, and lurk where not needed. He can then be safely bussed D3+ if needed. One other scum I would expect to lie low, but remain careful not to be the most unhelpful/unproductive -- most likely a scum with a power role -- sadly we have several candidates that fit the bill here. Regardless, I currently consider Aquanim to be null+, having completed the obligatory scrutiny required as a consequence of his leading the Spag wagon. It would be exceedingly sad if we were all jumping at our own shadows and killing each other off while all the scum lurk and laugh in their own QT. However, we cannot discount the fact that some of the cases and arguments presented contained too much speculation and reading too much into things that simply aren't there. This is partly inevitable when there is so little to work with. A good part of this is zealous newbie townies focusing on trying to convince ourselves, and others, that particular targets are scummy. Confirmation bias has seeped in, and cases are not being scrutinized and torn down. This is our biggest failing. We are not, however, acting erratically (except, well, threesr), if that is your concern. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 24 2012 13:15 Sylencia wrote: My top suspect now goes back to Kick who was my 2nd choice in the previous day, this is due to his uncharacteristic lurking, which differs completely from his normal playstyle. Indeed, the Kick I know would have jumped all over Corazon and Threesr day one, even with the few posts he did make. | ||
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