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On December 22 2012 16:27 Kickstart wrote:I take every vote seriously in every game I play, check my games if you like - I don't throw it around meaninglessly. If I vote someone it is because I think they are scum. And here is where you "basically claim blue": Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 09:08 cakepie wrote:
Well crap. That is a shame. GG mocsta.
I was roleblocked. With Mocsta's flip I feel that it is thus more likely that this comes from Robert Bellarmine (scum RB) than Martin Luther (town RB)
I will now continue my intended end-of-night dump, then go grab breakfast before coming back to all the end-of-night dumps that have been going up. You claim you were roleblocked, meaning you have a role. Funny how after this you make a post where you say "Why would a blue role call attention to himself and hint at his role? It is too dangerous a move to me." When you did it yourself (if your attempt at a claim is to be believed anyways).
Not a claim, but a statement of fact. I received a notification, and I felt that it was important enough to get that out early before I went back to my intended posting.
I stand by my statement that it is foolish for blue to call attention to themselves so soon.
But here in the OP it says:
All roleblocks will result in the target being notified.
That is to say, regardless of whether the roleblock actually does anything at all or not.
Feel free to verify this with the hosts, but I think my understanding is correct on this and so disclosing the existence of a roleblock (or, as it turns out, block due to jailkeeper) does not tell you anything about whether I am one of the esteemed scientists, or a simple white male voter.
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@Orangeremi: What do you think of Kick's contributions in the last few hours?
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@Cakepie What do you think about OE claiming he also got roleblocked? If true, would that mean the town RB blocked OE and the scum blocked you? If there was a roleblocker on each side that's how I would see it but what would that mean for the distribution of roles?
7-9 VT + 1 RB + 0-2 other blues(/SK)?
2 mafia + 1 RB
seems plausible I guess, but having 2 role blockers in the game suggests a lot more blues than usual..
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On December 22 2012 16:48 Aquanim wrote:
@Orangeremi: What do you think of Kick's contributions in the last few hours?
EBWOP: Specifically, how have they altered your read on him?
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It hasn't really changed much. The one thing I'm trying to figure out is his reaction to cake 'claiming blue role' and the possible implications. It's a very plausible towny reaction, but could it be something else?
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It hasn't really changed much from what?
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@Sylencia Who do you think you would have voted for if you'd been here near the day 1 lynch?
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On December 22 2012 15:50 cDgCorazon wrote:
This is the most interesting point that Mocsta's case that I feel you need to address. He is linking you with Chro/Omni, and is basically saying that because you were willing to follow both of them on the Spag lynch train, that Chro/Omni directed the other two mafia to jump on the Chro lynch train, and that is what you did. This is what Mocsta has accused you of, and now I feel like you need to address these accusations.
Chromatically:
I fail to see how I am "following" Chromatically when I am the one urging him to consider joining the Spag wagon. I liked that he had cases going against FatChunk and Corazon, though he had relented against Corazon and was at FC > Spag > Cor when I made that post that mocsta refers to.
With both Spaghetticus and Corazon at 3 votes, I did not feel that my vote was enough, and called on him on account of my townread on him and his willingness to consider Spag as an alternative to FC. Most importantly I felt I could rely on him to think carefully about the strength of the case, and take Spag up to a more credible 5 votes if he felt there was enough merit in the case. Surely I wasn't going to ask these guys:
- Corazon, FatChunk (benefits from attention removed from them)
- OrangeRemi, Kickstart, Sylencia (lurking/away)
- shz (play was relatively weaker)
- threesr (... nah.)
I genuinely did not want another swing onto someone else (which was numerically possible) in the space of a few hours, knowing I would have a severely limited ability to participate in such a discussion.
OmniEulogy:
I don't think I allude to Omni's case or support at any point. (more on my spag vote below). If you try to link me with Omni by the fact that I pretty much let him be throughout D1, or vice-versa, well, he was one of several who were generating enough text for my liking and thus was not the only one I didn't feel a need to prod for more. And basically no one expressed any misgivings about my play either. With 13 players and a need to focus attention on a few, it is hardly statistically surprising that any two given players do not pursue one another.
Were you sheeping on your vote for Spag just because the FC lynch train never took off
This was a side factor. With about 6 hours to go, it definitely looked more likely to me that a consolidation onto Spag was more viable than onto FatChunk.
or were you sheeping because another scum told you so?
Do I come across to you as a player who takes instructions from someone else?
Of course I deny this, but anyone would do say the same -- town in honesty, and scum would lie. How is this question anything but forcing me to put WIFO[U]?
In other words, explain your vote for Spag.
Since I was playing catch-up, I continued where I left off and took notes while going forwards in the thread. When I got to Aquanim's case on spag, many points resonated with me, same was true with Mocsta's posts. Both of them I had a town vibe on, and Mocsta particularly after he relaxed the pace of his posting. The mutual confirmation of opinion among players I have a town read on (relative to the others) led to higher confidence, and as discussed above, I felt a need to bring the lynch toward greater certainty given that time was running low and I would not be able to participate much.
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On December 22 2012 17:07 Sylencia wrote:
@Cakepie What do you think about OE claiming he also got roleblocked? If true, would that mean the town RB blocked OE and the scum blocked you? If there was a roleblocker on each side that's how I would see it but what would that mean for the distribution of roles?
7-9 VT + 1 RB + 0-2 other blues(/SK)?
2 mafia + 1 RB
seems plausible I guess, but having 2 role blockers in the game suggests a lot more blues than usual..
All we know is one of the roleblock notifications could have arose from Mocsta using his jailkeeper powers; it is highly likely he would not have wasted the power leaving it idle. It is entirely possible for him to have targeted either OE or myself, if you read his end-of-night analysis. If it was indeed Mocsta, what was his intention? To block a perceived scum power role, or to block scum KP? Or to protect? Did he crumb his action? We may never know.
If both roleblock claims are true, then another RB exists. Is it the scum RB or town RB? Which of two targets did this RB block, and with what intention?
Don't forget, you must consider the possibility that either one or even both the roleblocked claims may very well be a lie -- though I would naturally assure you that mine is the truth.
I do not think it is worth pursuing setup theorycrafting at this juncture. The reason for claiming roleblock is open disclosure and insuring against fake claims and other shenanigans later in the game. There isn't enough to work with from the setup angle yet, except possibly say that we should expect some parity in the amount of roles for both sides for balance reasons -- which does not help us in anyway right now. Scum hunting still takes precedence.
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On December 22 2012 17:39 Aquanim wrote:
It hasn't really changed much from what?
Wasn't convince he's town before, still not convinced he is. No reads on being something else, either.
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Well, I went through and read Mocsta's case on Chromatic. It seems to largely be based on that "scum tell vs. scum read" business, after which he says that Chromatic's following pressure on Omni is an attempt to distance themselves and escape suspicion. Personally, I think the tell vs. read thing is pretty farfetched, Omni doesn't strike me as being exact and precise with his nomenclature.
After that, the case seems to become "Chromatic is scum, therefore this is a bus, therefore Chromatic is scum".
I'd like to hear some other opinions on that case.
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EBWOP: Forgot to emphasise a couple of things:
- The entire Chromatic case is based on Omni being scum.
- I don't think Omni would necessarily be consistent in his use of the words "tell" and "read".
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I don't really like how FatChunk has slipped under the radar since the suspicions of him expressed at the end of day one. I have some serious problems with his end of day play:
Spag - I felt I should elaborate on this one since he's getting lynched tonight. While I agree that he has not shared a lot of his own analysis, neither have a lot of people. Also, he mentions that his analysis is in the background and will present findings as they arise. If he is not lying, this could be very useful to town. He has at least been active in trying to promote discussion, and defending people under pressure comes as a sideaffect of good judgement and rational thinking, something I respect. While I don't clear him completely of being mafia, I think it is more than likely he is town and we gain nothing from voting out Spag.
Everyone keeps mentioning that spag is appearing useful while not contributing. Spag has argued that he has been lighting fires under lurkers to gain information. Is this not considered scumhunting, whether direct or indirect? He seems to be contributing in ways that are very obviously pro-town. I do not really see conclusive evidence. But who knows, maybe thats what town's supposed to do on day1. Anyway, we would have stood much more benefit and less to lose by lynching theesr - we would have confirmed theesr as town/scum and in turn shed some light on spag's innocence. Now hes gone.
This defence of Spaghetticus keeps referencing Spag's own defensive post, but not the actual content of Spag's filter. Defending what we now know to be a townie isn't necessarily scummy, though there can be definite upside for scum.
However, I'd expect a townie to read the actual posts of a scum suspect and make their own decisions rather than relying on the suspected player's defence (which is obviously going to distort reality in their favour).
I also have no idea how lynching threesr would have given us any idea as to Spaghetticus' alignment.
And since the lynch, he's made one post partially dropping his suspicions on Threesr (because he got put under a little pressure for having them) and on myself. This smells like a scum trying to cover over his past indiscretions and hope no-one notices.
##Vote: FatChunk
If you're town FC, don't be scared by people telling you not to make cases on people because they're "easy targets" - just make a good and thorough case. If you have confidence that will shine through and our read on you will dramatically improve.
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considering Chrom and I haven't really agreed or strongly opposed each other on anything so far I think people claiming he needs to distance himself from me are full of it. Considering I believe Chrom is town, and I know I am I can only see it as being used by scum to set up another town lynching. Again I ask for people to read my post on my take of what has happened after D1 Lynch. + Show Spoiler +On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote:
Alright, so to get more conversation going I'm going to go over pretty much everything I believe we've learned from D1.
Reads
I'll start off with Corazon. After re-reading everything he's said a few times I believe I owe him an apology. As he defended Spag while the vote was on him I'm willing to say I believe he is town. He stuck with his vote on Theesr the entire time. I am willing to overlook every mistake up to this point in his posting and trust that what ever he says from now on is from the mouth of a townie.
I believe strong town reads are Mocsta, Chromatically, and Aquanim.
If Aquanim were scum, he didn't need to try to get Spag lynched to save Corazon, as Corazon defended Spag and imo proved his innocence. If Aqua were scum he could have sat back and let us lynch Cora. - same thing happens N1 but his name isn't out there for starting the lynch. For this I believe Aqua is town.
FC's actions at the end of D1 still throw me off a little bit. On one hand he's defending him (much too late) and if he were scum and knew Spag would turn up town it would make it easy for him to try and give a last minute case about why he thinks he's innocent. Hard to tell as he makes a few good points as well. He also tried to defend Corazon when nobody else would. Makes it much harder for me to call him scum now.
Theesr moves to my #1 scum read as even during the lynch of Spag he really doesn't seem to care. I believe he even says at one point he doesn't care. Again I owe an apology to Corazon as I believe he might be right in thinking Theesr is Scum or possible SK.
Shz fits into a middle ground for me. I am neutral about him for the time being. I'll need to look through the filter again.
with them gone the people I really have trouble marking come out.
Orange, Kick, Cakepie, and Sylencia. I'll enjoy having Sylencia around more often now and it should bring some more insight on him but I find it incredibly hard to read the other three and can't tell if they represent town or scum at all.
TL:DR sorry Cora, I believe you are town along with Mocsta, Aqua, Chrom, and maybe shz/fc
Aqua I think you should look this over and see if it makes sense to you. Moc/Chrom/shz/cora as well. I believe if we use D1 as any indicator we can assume this to be correct.
I admit I was wrong about Corazon after reading through everything again and thinking about it for awhile. Hopefully we can move on and get some of these lurkers out in the open
The only thing that even slightly incriminates Chrom is that he asked me why I thought Mocsta was town, I gave my reason and I turned out to be right. Mocsta gets lynched while trying to investigate me. I sure as hell would not lynch somebody as they are forming my investigation. I haven't lied once all game, From the information we had and the fact that Cora claimed scum I assumed he couldn't be making that many bad decisions and was just scum under pressure. I was wrong. I've already gone over that. My vote on Spag I have already also gone over. The vote was pressure that I had meant to remove after clearing up his case and he poorly handled it and it led to his lynching. USE the information it gave us instead of continuing to go after people.
Example: Orangeremi right now, votes for me based on what? has he read my posts or even discussed what was said/learned from D1/N1 lynch / death. Mocsta and I both FoS'd him at the same time (mine about 10 seconds before Mocsta's post) And now he's doing it again. quietly trying to get his vote in and slip out again. Read his filter. what has he contributed in the last 36~ hours?
It's a weak case but he's one of the people I can't put my finger on. As a claimed VT I ask that Chrom, Aqua, Corazon and shz take a serious look at what I have posted as I believe the townies I can't confirm will also be more likely to agree with your opinions. I even said I liked Mocsta leading our group and couldn't see him as scum (to chrom directly). The way Spag flipped town really hurt my credibility and I realized that immediately so I made the N1 post on my reads.
read it over and get back to me. Mocsta's death does not change my mind on those reads.
Again if anybody finds any problems with this let us ALL know now. Otherwise why are we targeting the townies because the lurkers haven't given us any information on themselves and have been allowed to get away with it.
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EBWOP: Replace Lynched with killed when talking about Mocsta.
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If you think Orangeremi is scummy enough/needs pressure enough for a vote, throw it down. Asking for validation from other players before you stick your neck out isn't exactly inspiring confidence in your towniness.
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I'm not saying he needs a vote at all. And I'm more worried about saying anything before making a real case on him and digging my own grave for trying to throw suspicion off myself without enough evidence. It's a fun hole I get to dig my way out of.
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Regarding roleblocks, from "Notes" in the OP:
One person on the mafia team may carry out the kill each night. The mafia can choose not to kill. The mafia can kill each other. If the mafia member chosen to kill on a particular night is roleblocked, no kill will occur. A mafia member may use his ability and kill in the same night.
If two roleblockers target each other, they are both informed. If a roleblocker targets a jailer and the jailer targets someone else, the jailer's action will not go through.
All [sucessful] roleblocks will result in the target being notified.
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On December 22 2012 17:43 Aquanim wrote:
@Sylencia Who do you think you would have voted for if you'd been here near the day 1 lynch?
I would say I would stick to Cora, but it's really hard to say objectively since it's already in the past and there's some bias now as to my thought process.
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@Sylencia: Who's your top scumread at the moment? If it's Omni, who's your second?
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EPT
