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On December 05 2012 15:10 DoYouHas wrote:
I had forgotten that MrZ and BH's PMs say that the other one was town (meaning they either both have to be town, or both have to be scum). That puts me back in my original thinking. Lazer needs to be lynched. Why should I be lynched? Because of some random WIFOM + how VE talked to me?
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wow. you guys. really. you make me sad.
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On December 05 2012 09:06 DoYouHas wrote:Follow me down the rabbit hole if you will MrZ and BH. Exempting yourselves, myself, and Keirathi from scum possibilities the remainders are: Xatalos, Sandroba, debears, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, Shiaopi Sandroba and debears seem townie to me, you both seem to agree, let's remove them from the list: Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, and Shiaopi. If we indeed have 2 pairs of town aligned masons, then it only makes sense that there are at least 4 mafia in the game. That means there should be 3 mafia in the 4 names I just presented. But if that is true, that means that at least one or both of Xatalos/Lazer is scum. And if one or both of them is scum, it drastically reduces the chances that Shiaopi is scum with them. If you don't understand why, then do some time rereading. Take that name off the list. Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey There is your scumteam. There are two things that could throw my thinking out the window. 1. I could be wrong about sandroba and debears. I don't think I am, but it is possible. 2. You (Mrz & BH) could be mafia in spite of everything. I would much rather confirm my thinking by lynching Lazer, but if you actively oppose me in this, it had better be because you don't agree that keir/sandro/debears are town. Otherwise I am forced to assume that you are scum.
Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi).
These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it.
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Keir, my main problem right now is that the role PM Mrz posted is substantially different from yours, WBG, and all the other ones
1) the highlighting
2) That their pm said the other is town
That, combined with the fact that I don't think there are 4 masons. So I would have to think that BH and MrZ are scum then. I just don't see it.
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On December 05 2012 16:50 Lazermonkey wrote:
Quick question
Can you confirm this NOT being bastard setup Jingle?
This is not a bastard setup. I am, however, still a bastard for the setup.
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On December 05 2012 23:24 debears wrote:
Keir, my main problem right now is that the role PM Mrz posted is substantially different from yours, WBG, and all the other ones
1) the highlighting
2) That their pm said the other is town
That, combined with the fact that I don't think there are 4 masons. So I would have to think that BH and MrZ are scum then. I just don't see it. With BHs Pm saying Zentor is town, their both alignments are guaranteed to be the same. And not in a billion years will anyone make me belive that BH is scum. Period. I will present my read on Keir close to deadline.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow.
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On December 06 2012 00:47 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 23:24 debears wrote:
Keir, my main problem right now is that the role PM Mrz posted is substantially different from yours, WBG, and all the other ones
1) the highlighting
2) That their pm said the other is town
That, combined with the fact that I don't think there are 4 masons. So I would have to think that BH and MrZ are scum then. I just don't see it. With BHs Pm saying Zentor is town, their both alignments are guaranteed to be the same. And not in a billion years will anyone make me belive that BH is scum. Period. I will present my read on Keir close to deadline.
You do have a point. It would be beyond ballsy for scum to serve two of their members on a platter.
Now that I think about it: Why don't we just let scum deal with BH and Mrz? Scum can't have 4 confirmed town running around in Keir, BH, Mrz, and DYH
Thinking back, lynching someone for a pm is just plain dumb :D
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On December 06 2012 02:11 debears wrote:
Wait Laser why Keir???? What?
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On December 05 2012 22:19 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 09:06 DoYouHas wrote:Follow me down the rabbit hole if you will MrZ and BH. Exempting yourselves, myself, and Keirathi from scum possibilities the remainders are: Xatalos, Sandroba, debears, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, Shiaopi Sandroba and debears seem townie to me, you both seem to agree, let's remove them from the list: Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey, and Shiaopi. If we indeed have 2 pairs of town aligned masons, then it only makes sense that there are at least 4 mafia in the game. That means there should be 3 mafia in the 4 names I just presented. But if that is true, that means that at least one or both of Xatalos/Lazer is scum. And if one or both of them is scum, it drastically reduces the chances that Shiaopi is scum with them. If you don't understand why, then do some time rereading. Take that name off the list. Xatalos, austinmcc, Lazermonkey There is your scumteam. There are two things that could throw my thinking out the window. 1. I could be wrong about sandroba and debears. I don't think I am, but it is possible. 2. You (Mrz & BH) could be mafia in spite of everything. I would much rather confirm my thinking by lynching Lazer, but if you actively oppose me in this, it had better be because you don't agree that keir/sandro/debears are town. Otherwise I am forced to assume that you are scum. Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi). These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it.
What I am hearing is that you are behind a Lazer lynch tomorrow, and we can work from there.
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On December 06 2012 02:23 Lazermonkey wrote:What?
You said present ur read on keir
Like do you mean scumread?
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[QUOTE]On December 06 2012 02:59 debears wrote:
[QUOTE]On December 06 2012 02:23 Lazermonkey wrote:
[QUOTE]On December 06 2012 02:11 debears wrote:
Wait Laser why Keir????[/QUOTE]What?
[/QUOTE]
You said present ur read on keir
Like do you mean scumread?[/QUOTEI don't want to reveal that right now as I feel it might get scum valuable info on getting the best kill. I will say all my reads close to deadline.
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On December 06 2012 03:27 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 02:59 debears wrote:On December 06 2012 02:23 Lazermonkey wrote:On December 06 2012 02:11 debears wrote:
Wait Laser why Keir???? What? You said present ur read on keir Like do you mean scumread? I don't want to reveal that right now as I feel it might get scum valuable info on getting the best kill. I will say all my reads close to deadline.
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EBWOP... I fucking suck at this.
On December 06 2012 02:59 debears wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 02:23 Lazermonkey wrote:On December 06 2012 02:11 debears wrote:
Wait Laser why Keir???? What? You said present ur read on keir Like do you mean scumread? I don't want to reveal that right now as I feel it might get scum valuable info on getting the best kill. I will say all my reads close to deadline.
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On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote:
Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow.
Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi.
If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that.
If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3."
I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so.
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I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them:
1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing.
2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them).
3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them.
That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia.
Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad.
I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his:
On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:
Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. Show nested quote +On December 04 2012 22:56 ShiaoPi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:51 Xatalos wrote:On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote:On December 04 2012 22:34 Xatalos wrote:
On the other hand, if ShiaoPi happened to flip town, it would mean some of my reads were seriously wrong. I think I'll have to reread several filters with the mindset that ShiaoPi would actually be town. I'm not seeing it right now, but it's a possibility after all. Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter. Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. That game was a long time ago and I was also in a different timezone, much more fitting for playing with EU/NA. Just saying you should not take that game as a basis for meta, go for more recent games such as Liquid City or LVI and LVII Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game.
It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point).
On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 02:06 ShiaoPi wrote:
Okay I must admit that I came back to the thread this late, because I fully expected to be lynched by all of your for stupid reasons. Well first off I am pleasantly surprised to be still alive, secondly how the heck was bugs town?!?!?! and finally WTF!!!! is this setup, 4 claimed mason, a dt and a vig. Dunno it is a lot to comprehend at once and I am way too tired to do some critical thinking now. I will look into the whole mason mess more closely tomorrow. Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi. If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that. If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3." I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so.
Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy.
This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later.
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On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). Peculiar.
I'm reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi and I rarely mention him or ask him anything. Yet you can pull out a couple quotes showing me doing that...
Yes, the interaction is odd. I'm trying to figure out someone who just won't post, but who has done so as town and scum both before. Plus, he's someone I usually read based off of his reads, and without more info from him I find it difficult to read him myself.
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On December 06 2012 06:25 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote:
It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). Peculiar. I'm reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi and I rarely mention him or ask him anything. Yet you can pull out a couple quotes showing me doing that... Yes, the interaction is odd. I'm trying to figure out someone who just won't post, but who has done so as town and scum both before. Plus, he's someone I usually read based off of his reads, and without more info from him I find it difficult to read him myself.
I'm not saying you never mentioned him. It's just that you've done so very rarely and when you did, it was just some wishy-washy stuff without any result (except your apparent reluctance to lynch him until that latest post of yours, I guess). But this is all just speculation without ShiaoPi's flip... I definitely don't think you should be lynched unless ShiaoPi flips Mafia.
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EPT
