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On November 26 2012 09:41 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Prom
Your recent defenses seem reasonable, so I'll drop things for now. Toad and Kita are far higher on the radar for me at the moment.
Also I'm not too sold on the idea that Prom's "powerful" role makes him scummy. He didn't have to disclose his powers, and could have easily lied about them to make 'em seem more reasonable. Instead, he seems pretty forthcoming about things, and that doesn't seem scummy.
Regarding the Party
Is there a consensus on the party atm? Are we consolidating votes on Oats?
Oats/Dieno/Clarity/Marv seems to be the consensus.
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Bah, I want to comment on some points with my own observations, but I think it would be best if Hopeless comments first.
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On November 26 2012 10:15 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 10:12 Clarity_nl wrote:
I actually didn't notice that last quote, Hapa. Did hopeless ever claim being damaged?
With that, I'm off to bed. Sorry for a lazy day, it's not a lynch cycle so we have some time, tomorrow it's back to serious scumhunting. Sorry zbo for the confusion I just genuinely did not see what you were getting at. I did not mention taking damage, because no one has targeted, to my knowledge (yet)
Then why did you want healing, when there are people like Dieno who has taken 400+ damage and could actually USE the heal?
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On November 26 2012 10:18 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2012 10:17 Keirathi wrote:On November 26 2012 10:15 Hopeless1der wrote:On November 26 2012 10:12 Clarity_nl wrote:
I actually didn't notice that last quote, Hapa. Did hopeless ever claim being damaged?
With that, I'm off to bed. Sorry for a lazy day, it's not a lynch cycle so we have some time, tomorrow it's back to serious scumhunting. Sorry zbo for the confusion I just genuinely did not see what you were getting at. I did not mention taking damage, because no one has targeted, to my knowledge (yet) Then why did you want healing, when there are people like Dieno who has taken 400+ damage and could actually USE the heal? Who said I couldn't use it?
So you took...self inflicted damage?
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On November 26 2012 10:20 Hopeless1der wrote:
Keir, if you want me to comment on something specifically, point it out please. Hapa hasn't really requested my input on his read of me, and it's not like its for my benefit anyways.
I specifically wanted to comment on the "mafia motivation" part. Maybe you could explain your thought process there, before I give what was my take on it.
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Syllo: what is your reasoning to think Prom is scum? I never quite followed. Maybe lay it out for me?
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On November 26 2012 16:28 Promethelax wrote:
Man Syllo you sure managed to reply to my concerns in the last 45 minutes I've been gone. Glad to see you living up to your reputation as a good player.
keir: hey mang! Do you feel that Acro's refusal to give his reasoning on being included in the party is a scum or a town tell?
I don't particularly think it's a scum tell. Notice, I said I didn't particularly want to be included in the party during day 1.
But combined with the rather weird circumstances around his role claim, things just don't make any sense without more information that he is unwilling to give.
There's no way I would lynch him over Toad, so not in a super big hurry to make up my mind. Maybe things will be clearer by the next time we get to a lynch cycle.
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On November 26 2012 16:45 syllogism wrote:
Prom: for future reference, it's not a good strategy to berate me in every post, especially given what happened on day 1 and 2. That and telling fewer unnecessary lies should help in your future endeavours.
You going to answer my question?
Because I honestly have no idea what the fuck you're talking about.
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On November 27 2012 03:00 Acrofales wrote:
I agree that someone needs to make an argument for Clarity's towniness. I myself have a number of people I would prefer to have included ahead of Clarity. Particularly Djodref has been throwing me town vibes in spades, and TC's parity cop check feels 100% townie to me, even if I had my reservations before. I am back to TC being town.
Besides having a generally townie attitude:
On November 26 2012 00:25 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 07:18 Clarity_nl wrote:
Marv if something happens tonight other than you taking damage please do not share that fact, I might rely on it later. Show nested quote +On November 25 2012 21:31 marvellosity wrote:On November 25 2012 15:37 Clarity_nl wrote:
I took 30 damage, same as Djo. And we both took 20 damage last night. I'm willling to guess we'll take 40 damage tonight.
Anyway, marv I'm guessing you only got notified of any damage you took?
Catching up on the thread atm. I took no damage last night, but I was healed. Dicks.
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Read my post right above. What the hell :o
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On November 27 2012 09:10 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:09 phagga wrote:
oh, one last thing, clarity or dieno as party leader? We can vote syllo if I'm not mistaken. Also, I took 75 damage (not self-inflicted)
I actually subscribe to Djo's line of thinking: we don't want to put all of our eggs into one basket, so to speak. AKA, I don't think its worth the risk to put TWO gifts on syllo.
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On November 27 2012 09:22 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:19 TheChronicler wrote:
Ok who gets the reward, party leader or the entire team. I thought it was the whole team?
If it's just party lead we select a party lead from the winning team and we should have 4/4 team that has already won us an event, right? It's just 1/2 of the previous team, and we can take people from the original team as well. How can we lose? the party leader gets the reward (from what Syllo said). Do you think that taking Kier makes sense? We've, presumably, had bonuses every day because of Frog/Robo but would not have those in the end of time.
Where does everyone get this assumption that we had a bonus to our success chances with an era-specific character in the party? There are OTHER bonuses (notice marv's), that you get for being in a party during your home era, but I see nothing to suggest your chances of success go up.
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On November 27 2012 09:26 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:23 Promethelax wrote:
oh, and ## Vote: Dieno
Gk, be a smart sheep. Lol I'm guessing this has something to do with how we assume gifts work, which is completely unconfirmed at this point... You're right. If there are in fact gifts each cycle maybe syllo isn't the best choice. But neither is a deino who is confirmed to be wittled down a sizable chunk of HP. ##Unvote##Vote: Clarity
Not me? 
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It doesn't really matter to me, either. But, since we can have a full team of people that are confirmed successful parties, I'll say that unless I get invited to parties, I am nothing more than a VT. I get 0 abilities to use without being included.
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On November 27 2012 09:31 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:28 TheChronicler wrote:
Why does Keir's modifier matter? We just keep using a winning team. Since we have absolutely no idea how success rate is determined, why take any unnecessary risks? Until such a time where the actual mechanics for determining success are revealed, I prefer to take what Keir has told us at face value...
You do realize I was in the night 1 party, right?
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On November 27 2012 09:34 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:33 Keirathi wrote:
It doesn't really matter to me, either. But, since we can have a full team of people that are confirmed successful parties, I'll say that unless I get invited to parties, I am nothing more than a VT. I get 0 abilities to use without being included. are your abilities worth your low modifier? Objectively and not "oh man look at this cool thing I can do"
Some are. If I was worried about the party selection, it would probably be best to leave me out of the party. But we have 5 people who have been in successful parties, including a party that I was in specifically. We could take the exact 4 people today as we had day 1, if we really wanted to. I don't see any reason to believe that that party wouldn't be successful today, when it was on day 1.
So, I don't see much reason not to include me.
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On November 27 2012 09:38 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:33 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 09:31 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 09:28 TheChronicler wrote:
Why does Keir's modifier matter? We just keep using a winning team. Since we have absolutely no idea how success rate is determined, why take any unnecessary risks? Until such a time where the actual mechanics for determining success are revealed, I prefer to take what Keir has told us at face value... You do realize I was in the night 1 party, right? But we don't know if our chance of success was lowered by your presence that night. If your low success modifier as described in your PM is to be trusted, then bringing you this time around might not be the best idea.
Wat...?
It says ANY party that I'm in has a lower chance of success. That's pretty straight forward wording, and I (not should anyone else) have any reason to believe that it didn't apply day 1 for some unknown reason.
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On November 27 2012 09:47 goodkarma wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2012 09:41 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 09:38 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 09:33 Keirathi wrote:On November 27 2012 09:31 goodkarma wrote:On November 27 2012 09:28 TheChronicler wrote:
Why does Keir's modifier matter? We just keep using a winning team. Since we have absolutely no idea how success rate is determined, why take any unnecessary risks? Until such a time where the actual mechanics for determining success are revealed, I prefer to take what Keir has told us at face value... You do realize I was in the night 1 party, right? But we don't know if our chance of success was lowered by your presence that night. If your low success modifier as described in your PM is to be trusted, then bringing you this time around might not be the best idea. Wat...? It says ANY party that I'm in has a lower chance of success. That's pretty straight forward wording, and I (not should anyone else) have any reason to believe that it didn't apply day 1 for some unknown reason. So let's say (hypothetically) bringing you night one took us from 100% to 70% success rate, but you succeeded. But it could have been something like from 100% success rate to 10% to but you succeeded. Same outcome, but very different likelihoods of success... We can continue to speculate on this, but it just doesn't make sense to me why we should bring you today since we don't know that we'll have the same outcome this time around as last time with you in the party.
I'm pretty sure that the chance of party success isn't some % value roll of the dice.
From OP:
Town players will assist completion of an event and mafia players will count against. There are other hidden factors that contribute to this as well.
Again, I think its much more likely that we're using some kind of zero-sum system for sucess values. Some people are high, some people are low, most people are in the middle, and mafia are negative. Then everyone in the party's value is added up, and if the sum is >0, then the party is successful.
Some random roll of the dice would be insanely dumb, and I don't think GreyMisT is dumb.
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EBWOP: Basically, I'm saying that any party with 4 townies is almost guaranteed to success, because anything else would be so far beyond ridiculous that I don't think its possible.
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EPT
