Getting lynched elsewhere as well, with a quicker deadline. My effort has been going thataways, but will shift after this evening with what time I'll have.
For right now, I took a peek at my fellow candidates' claims. Quicker than filters, maybe something there. We've got some nights with KP unaccounted for - looks like Marv getting hit for a bunch, the amount that Syllo took a few nights back (if risk hit syllo, that's still a lot of damage leftover). So I'm more inclined to believe that the remaining scum has KP available, since I'm not the source of the unknown KP. Add to that the small amounts of KP from the first couple days, for which we also don't have a source.
Out of the claims of me/hopeless1der/phagga/adam/goodkarma (which seems to be the list of people that aren't yet confirmed),
I claimed conditional kp
Hopeless1der claimed kp
phagga claimed to copy something random (potentially kp if used on him)
adam claimed kp
goodkarma claimed kp
So that...doesn't help at all.
Out of just the roles and actions, without looking through filters yet, I'm most suspicious of the claims that could result in variable damage. Adam shot me, but I took the amount of damage he claims he can deal, and even though his claim means that he's more or less unaccounted for most nights ("Guessed wrong, didn't get a shot"), the flavor of his role feels like a nice counterbalance to snb's role.
snb punishes roleclaiming as town. Adam has the potential to punish scum hitting the obvious townies. It's not a 1:1 comparison, but it's a sort of balancing element that I could see in this game. So while Adam has been the least visible to me, his role is the one I trust the most, excluding everything else.
Because we've got swings in the amount of damage we should be seeing though, I'm more worried about the others.
Hopeless's claim, to some extent, checks out based on the damage he and others have claimed. I'd like to stay alive and check his HP in one of the later periods. If we get there, and he tells me his max, I can check to see whether or not he's taken the damage he says he has. We match up the damage he says he's taken against the damage others have claimed that he says he's responsible, and we can somewhat verify his claim. To the extent we can somewhat verify his claim, we can pretty much conclude he's not responsible for ALL the damage that's unaccounted for, because it seems a little too much for him to try and game the math, claim a max hp that works out, have everyone take the damage he claims, etc. So his claim feels more...verifiable, although that relies on him being truthful. Saying he can act every other night allows him to use something else on the other nights, so I need to check and see whether the in-between-vigi nights are the ones where we have KP missing.
Then phagga, who claimed to copy random abilities. This is another ability that we could test, but it seems like ALL the abilities are testable at this point, to some extent. Just right off the bat though, this feels like the weakest of the claims to me because of the variety of roles we have. I'd like to hear more about his copy abilities. If kita uses something on phagga, does phagga copy it despite not having MP? If snb attacked phagga, does phagga have to guess someone's name or not (and if he does, then he not only copies abilities but also has the potential to learn the restrictions of any ability used on him, which feels odd)? If phagga is the secondary or tertiary target of flamethrower, does he still get to copy that, since it wasn't used ON him?
For GK, he claimed a 150 dmg shot on Drazerk on the night Drazerk claimed 201 damage. That matches up with kita doing 50 and snb claiming 1. Since snb had the power to do 1 damage, I don't think he was lying about that, as otherwise that's a very odd number for us to end up at, and the math works if all claims are true. That, in my mind, clears GK. If he shot Drazerk, then he can't be responsible for the damage that marv took that night. If he shot marv, then we've got KP missing from drazerk.
So on claims, I feel like...GK actually comes out towniest? He's got damage but if we try to use his damage to explain missing damage it doesn't work. Phagga looks the worst to me, just because it seems like another one of those "partially true, fakeclaimed, but not thought out fully" claims. Similar to snb's, where he hadn't asked the questions he should have asked.
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Okay. I've taken the time to read over Phagga's filter. This is a bit bass-ackwards, because I'm already looking at him to be the scum in our unclaimed group, and so reading his early game is shaded by that.
But what I get from his filter is...that he thinks goodkarma is scum. Sometimes. Most times. For a little while no, then yes again, and now no. Other than that...I pick up a couple things that should be pointed out.
(1) Phagga wants scumhunting. He does not want townhunting. + Show Spoiler +On November 21 2012 16:54 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 16:35 goodkarma wrote:On November 21 2012 16:12 phagga wrote:
I like Sandroba's plan, his logic is sound. However, I find it dangerous to derive a town read from it, nothing is stopping scum to put up this plan to get themselfes elected.
Why is everyone asking for town reads? I understand that the mechanics are working differently, but everyone just spreading their townreads like the flu will only make it easier for scum to decide who to shoot at night. People like Keirathi and me who have no desire in being elected D1 should not be giving out any townreads, instead we can actually scum hunt in the traditional way and establish ourselfes as town this way. I even think that most candidates should not be throwing out their town reads unless they seem to be a serious candidate (meaning several people have voiced interest in voting that person). The reason we're not doing traditional scumhunting is because we don't have the power to lynch scum. Our time is best used determining who is most likely town, as we're (hopefully) voting for townies as party leader. I've touched on this a few times. Hopefully this is the last time clarification is needed. This game isn't about scumhunting. Rather, it revolves around townhunting. Ok, looks like I need to clarify myself. Townhunting is stupid. Do you know why? Because scum can fake it to no end, since they know who is not scum. Talking about who is townie makes it much easier for scum to blend in, which then makes it much harder for town to choose the right people for their teams. Yes, there may be multiple factions in this game. Still, if we force scum to scumhunt they are more likely to trip as if they can just give their townreads out. So, no, I disagree that this game revolves around townhunting. We find out who is townie by scumhunting, not by townhunting.
Phagga proceeds to spend the game...not doing much scumhunting. Acro picked up on this early, but at least within Phagga's filter I don't see much of him responding to this line of questioning being continued.On November 22 2012 05:29 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 21 2012 21:23 Acrofales wrote:
@syllo and phagga: you advocate a policy of scumhunting, yet are doing no scumhunting. People who seem to be clearly focused on scumhunting so far: clarity and toad. Why are you not in that list?
Syllo at least is giving a running commentary of the game. Phagga just posted the policy of scumhunting and went away.
Phagga, why are you not practicing what you preach? I was busy
(2) A list of phagga's scum reads (I'm going to leave out a bunch of links, but there are very few "x is scum" and a tremendous amount of wishywashy "x might be scum, might not be scum, just saying' " posts):
Drazerk, GK (but hasn't gone through filter), BioSC (based on someone else's comment it seems) - + Show Spoiler +On November 23 2012 18:05 phagga wrote:
My list with reads on everyone has one person painted in bright red: CaveJohnson. That's were my vote goes for now.
However, my list is not up to date. I will try to go through several filters and update it, so I might make a more definite vote before Kita has to make his prediction.
People who are also red in my list:
- Goodkarma, although I REALLY have to go through his filter now. Have not done that yet.
- BioSC, lurking hardcore although he was very excited pregame, as someone mentioned
Other people I want to look into/know more about:
- Sandroba, I read his filter yesterday. I want to hear more from him and what he says about the current accusations
- Hopeless1der, I have "looks shady, check filter" note on him, but I don't know why anymore. Will clear this up.
##Vote CaveJohnson
Then GK definitely, after reading filter.
Then GK isn't scum - + Show Spoiler +On November 26 2012 07:27 phagga wrote:
Ok, I've updated my read on GK and I would no longer lynch him. When the D2 lynch came to a close, he asked people to consolidate on either sandroba or Toad. He tried to shut down any discussion that would bring in new candidates. considering that Sandro is confirmed scum and Toad is very very likely scum, I don't see the mafia motivation behind is behaviour.
also, the way he acts D3 seems more pro-town than on the first day. All in all, I put GK on null for the moment.
Then GK still not scum, but phagga angry with him - + Show Spoiler +On November 28 2012 20:32 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 06:37 goodkarma wrote:On November 28 2012 06:25 Dienosore wrote:On November 28 2012 06:11 Promethelax wrote:On November 28 2012 06:09 Dienosore wrote:
Fuck, I keep forgetting Oats can't be in it... I remember now that I said TheChronicler earlier, but honestly I'm open to all suggestions. well stop being open to suggestions. Scum must have some influence on this game. Get your butt in gear and make one town read on your own. Unless I hear the majority of people telling me to change my vote, I have chosen TheChronicler based on my town read. Why are you insisting that scum must have some influence? Are you perhaps threatened by the fact that you don't think your viewpoints aren't being heard or agreed on by the general populace? Enough so, that it makes you want to reinforce to the admitted new guy that scum are constantly lurking around, so you can verify to yourself that what you are doing is actually working? You should really stop making your anger at me because I just wont fucking die so obvious. So you're saying you don't trust your own reads, and consider scum (who you've gone to no lengths to spot) are automatically a non-threat? Please play some newbie games after you're done here, so a coach can teach you how to play...As for electing you leader I've been thinking that having a heavily HP-damaged town get a item would make him a strong mafia target, and by electing you we'd lose the item and a "confirmed town." But then I remembered that there are several "confirmed town" 10X more useful than you. It won't be an easy decision for scum to kill you, and I actually would rather have you die than them. To that end anything that could make you a stronger target than someone such as Syllo or Keir is something I'm completely for. ##Unvote
##Vote: DeinoHowever incompetent I think you are, I also have a town read on TC, and am confident that the party you've proposed will succeed. You have some nerve. I have not seen a single case of you this game, your filter is almost completely devoid of any scumhunting, and you go and lecture dieno on how to play? Dieno achieved something in this game that you have not yet done, he has established himself as town. That is already worth a lot for town. You may not agree with his methods of doing it, but he was one of the fastest established townies in this game. But you come in the thread regularly and have nothing better to do than to mock him. Do you think this is creating the kind of town atmosphere we need to win this game? What is the benefit for town of you calling him incompetent, bad and mocking his playstile? I don't see one. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 08:51 goodkarma wrote:
I'll make a definitive case on you yet today. Just don't lurk too hard in the meantime. Ah, finally you make a case! Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 09:57 goodkarma wrote:
My strongandbig read was in fact in large part due to activity, in addition to the incomplete cases / reads he was bringing up. I was unaware, however, of the severe lack of internet he was experiencing, and will back off of him for now...
In its place I provide a mafia (the game) favorite, a scum suspect shortlist:
1) Iamp - I have a good "gut feel" about this guy I guess you could say. But he still has yet to contribute anything meaningful, which earns him a spot here. Would be willing to give him more time to see if his roleclaim checks out.
2) VE - Shoot him dead. I actually think he might be more likely to be town than scum given his enthusiasm for playing scum. But if an elimination-based approach for finding scum is to work, he has to go. He has not posted enough to make a meaningful read...
3) phagga - Need to reread his filter at some point (but not something I'm focusing on today). He has been pro-town in his contributions, but I can't help but feel he is also "playing it safe" and doing what he can to fly under the radar...
4) Adam - lurker who might need to be shot too.
5) Kita - I'm inclined to believe Marv's read of 3rd party
6) Cave - This guy won't be figured out without getting vigi killed. Shoot first, ask questions later...
7) Z-boson - From my experience with him, he likes to play pretty safe as scum, whereas as town he is rather reckless to the point of being pretty easy to mislynch. He definitely is making his own reads and contributing to thread, but all his reads I would call "safe" ones in that he is targeting almost exclusively lurkers... Null read atm, even after looking into filter.
8) Prox - Tbh I don't know what to do with him. Syllo's input is definitely appreciated, but I don't see him as a strong scum read (closer to null...).
9) Strong - I had a strong scum read based both off meta and on filter. However, with meta differences explained, I'm inclined to give him more of a chance to establish himself as town before coming to conclusions.
10) Toad - Scum
11) Hopeless (maybe) - clearly anti-town, but I'm still not convinced that he's scum. Would even go so far as to say slight town read... Oh noes, you couldn't be arsed to make a case, instead you throw out this worthless list where you throw some dirt around with barely any explanation. Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 10:25 goodkarma wrote:
Correction: I'm a good town player when I don't drink while playing. I'm going to take a break from thread, and play damage control tomorrow. Like I care. If you are too drunk to play, don't play. If you play, I don't care about your state, i will hold you responsible for your actions. This is weird. At this point, phagga has put forth 2 scumreads. (1) GK, which he has retracted. (2) Drazerk, who he didn't push, and hasn't mentioned really at all since initially saying he found Drazerk scummy. phagga is getting on GK's case about creating a good town atmosphere and about a lack of scumhunting, when he's retracted 1/2 his scumhunting and isn't doing anything with the other half
Back to GK being scum, along with hopeless1der - + Show Spoiler +On November 29 2012 01:32 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 28 2012 22:23 strongandbig wrote:
Now, phagga I have a couple of questions for you:
1. As far as I can tell, you changed your mind on your scumread on goodkarma because of the timing of his vote on Sandroba. Could you update that read for us? Given that Sandroba never really responded to Syllo's case or made a real effort to not get himself lynched, I'm hesitant to draw any conclusions from who voted for him when. It's definitely possible that his teammates knew he wasn't going to try very hard, and started bussing him very early. So if you ignore gk's vote on sandro, do you still think he's town or do you want to lynch him again.
2. You said you object to hopeless being in the party. do you think he's scum? What do you think of my stuff on his behavior since the check on him and acro?
3. What is kitaman's alignment and why do you think that?
1. After his behaviour today I'm rather leaning scum on him again. Reason is that his behaviour was rather disruptive imho, and that is rather scum motivated. Also, z-boson made me rethink the whole bussing-situation, and I don't feel as sure about my conclusion from last time anymore. So, leaning scum on GK. Pre-Edit: What also really bothered me was that GK was posting this huge list with 11 people on it. That's half of the remaining player base. The problem is, people are slightly bored in this game, they try too hard to find scum and start to misinterpret situations because of confirmation bias. The want to find scum so hard that they scum where none is. Syllo actually pointed this out a few pages ago, and took this as a reason to take a break IIRC. Looking at GKs list from that point of view shows how counterproductive it is to towns interest. You don't want half of the town chasing the other half of the town. You want people trying to make proper cases of one or two other people, and show how the actions of their suspects fit a mafia agenda (or how they don't). Those cases don't have to be long, but they should have a clear focus and a proper analysis. Then others can discuss it and agree or disagree, which will lead most of the times on a reasonable result. GKs list mainly spreads distrust and is therefore counterproductive. 2. I remember going over Hopeless' filter a few days ago and setting him null on my list. Then Hope came up with this strange theorie about what if Toad flips town, followed by TC saying that Acro and Hope are of opposite alignement. Then he wanted to be part of the party to show that he is town, which was a red flag for me. Since then he is marked as scum. Regarding your post, I like the point about his sentence that he will not bring any last minute shenanigans. I mean, this is what everyone expects, why does he feel he has to announce this? seems like he is missing a townie mindest. The "Bring it, bitches" is interesting because he first takes a defensive stance in his answers to TCs case, but then tries to look aggressive with that last sentence. It does not seem authentic, but I don't think it's alignement indicative. 3. I'm running out of time  I want to go through Kita's filter again, I don't like to just make comments about a person without some facts behind it. I hope to give you answer until the deadline. Which reminds me, I haven't voted yet. BRB with vote. Note that phagga never puts forth "Scummy on GK again" on his own. He's asked what he's thinking about GK after that last post, he responds that he's changed his mind and GK is scummy. BTW, hopeless1der is now scummy too, just out of nowhere
He gets called out for not following-up Drazerk read, responds - + Show Spoiler +On November 30 2012 08:14 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2012 08:08 Hapahauli wrote:I mean really, just look at his D2 play: My list with reads on everyone has one person painted in bright red: CaveJohnson. That's were my vote goes for now. My vote is currently on CaveJohnson. Not finished with reading everything. Not feeling sure enough with Toad yet. I can agree to a Sandro lynch. His reluctance to defend himself, the way he talked about his scumreads (only mentioning names, barely any reasoning) and his lurking when under pressure are enough reasons for me to justify a vote. And even then this could be excusable... but he never mentions CaveJohnson as a scumread ever again in his filter. He's scum that forgot about one of his suspicions. In fact, the next time he metnions him, he's cooperative towards him: On November 29 2012 07:38 phagga wrote:
CaveJohnson, I have 600 max HP, if you use me as Target A, I will be able to use this skill next night as well. Your action goes through normally, I get the same skill to use next night. If you trust me to be town, make me Target A instead of Acro. He improved. There was no need push him anymore on D3. Also, i was absent of the thread for most of D2 (which I announced beforehand). Regarding the last post, yes, I was pretty sure at that point that he is at least not scum. However, i was overeager when I wrote that post, I should have gone into this more cautiously, not revealing that much about me.
Says risk "sounds like scum," but nothing more - + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2012 17:18 phagga wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2012 17:00 risk.nuke wrote:
##Vote strongandbig
Hapas first ability sound like bogus. The second sound like scum. That post sounds like scum. you have posted almost nothing in the last 72 hours, and all you do is trying to judge a player on is claimed abilities. Hapa has posted a lot in the last few hours, why don't you comment on that?
Now strongandbig scum based on syllo's tracking - + Show Spoiler +On December 03 2012 20:33 phagga wrote:
@risk.nuke I also still would like to know what you think of hapa.
Regarding SnB: Having two damaging abilities, him visiting Djo who is in the party is damning in any case. However, I am also confident in my scum read on Goodkarma, so I am happy to lynch either of them. For now, my vote stays on GK. Note: First time he's called out snb, really mentioned snb at all recently
risk sounds like scum? So...scum, right? Nope. - + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2012 01:33 phagga wrote:z-boson/austin: I noticed that z-boson made several unclear statetements which he had to rectract later. I personally already thought that it was probably only a problem of him being busy and working in haste, which resulted in those errors. Nevertheless, I asked him about this because I wanted to see his reaction. He never replied and got replaced shortly after, which seems to confirm that he was just to busy to formulate properly, and that there is no deeper meaning to this. Austins post on risk.nuke pretty much mirrors my thoughts. I agree with his analysis that risk was playing rather protown D1, but since then his activity has gone down badly. I would like to see more from Austin to get a better picture of his alignemnet, but currently I do not think he is scum. risk.nuke: As said, his early play looks slightly townie, however recently his activity dropped hard. I would really like to hear from him why this is the case. Also, I would like to hear from him what he thinks of Hapa.@Syllo, is risk more active in the mason circle? My scum reads are snb and GK. Regarding hopeless (who I have still marked as scum): I was also looking at a series of posts that discussed Hopeless' night actions and if they add up, but I'm currently unable to find it. If anyone knows where it is, a friendly pointer would be very nice. @Acro for your spreadsheet, I was the one dealing damage to Goodkarma last night.
First mention of VE in a while - + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2012 17:29 phagga wrote:
Regarding VE: Being inactive on the verge of a modkill does not really say anything about his alignement. If it turns out that he is just going to post again this circle to not get modkilled, then he is mainly vigi-stuff. If he still wants to participate in this game properly, I expect him to step up his game drastically.
risk scum for inactivity, 1:30 til deadline - + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2012 06:29 phagga wrote:
About risk.nuke
For him it is pretty much the opposite of Hope. I liked his early play as I explained earlier.
However, for almost a week now he has gone silent. It was pointed out that he has not called a person scum or made a case. I asked him several times for his read on hapa and never got an answer. His recent play is worrying. He promised a defense and a case, and now, less than two hours before deadline, he has not posted it. I therefore assume he is not playing in towns interest, which warrants a lynch.
About goodkarma:
I wanted to update my read on him too, but did not find the time. I will do so in the next cycle, I should have a lot of time on my hand from tomorrow evening on (wife and kids are gone for a week). Since I seem to be the only one still having him marked as scum, i give him the benefit of the doubt until I have been able to go through his filter again.
About the Epoch:
I am happy following the majority again regarding the time we travel to.
##Unvote Lynch: Goodkarma
##Lynch: risk.nuke
##Epoch: Middle Ages
And with this I'm off to bed. See you guys tomorrow.
(3) His votes on confirmed scum
Sandroba - + Show Spoiler +On November 25 2012 07:53 phagga wrote:
Not finished with reading everything. Not feeling sure enough with Toad yet. I can agree to a Sandro lynch. His reluctance to defend himself, the way he talked about his scumreads (only mentioning names, barely any reasoning) and his lurking when under pressure are enough reasons for me to justify a vote.
##Unvote
##Vote Sandroba
***Quote tag messing up and can't seem to fix. Rest is editorializing by me***
Right before deadline. Hasn't read, sidesteps talking about toad. Is okay lynching Sandroba, but hasn't mentioned Sandroba as scum before.
Toad - + Show Spoiler +On November 29 2012 09:17 phagga wrote:
##Vote Toadesstern
He has mentioned toad ONCE I believe at this point. Not as scum. I know you guys had like...matching checks on him, but at this point, phagga just hasn't talked about toad AT ALL, hasn't interacted, hasn't read him, doesn't touch him
***Quote tag messing up and can't seem to fix. Rest is editorializing by me***
He has mentioned toad ONCE I believe at this point. Not as scum. I know you guys had like...matching checks on him, but at this point, phagga just hasn't talked about toad AT ALL, hasn't interacted, hasn't read him, doesn't touch him
Did not vote snb
risk.nuke - + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2012 06:29 phagga wrote:
About risk.nuke
For him it is pretty much the opposite of Hope. I liked his early play as I explained earlier.
However, for almost a week now he has gone silent. It was pointed out that he has not called a person scum or made a case. I asked him several times for his read on hapa and never got an answer. His recent play is worrying. He promised a defense and a case, and now, less than two hours before deadline, he has not posted it. I therefore assume he is not playing in towns interest, which warrants a lynch.
About goodkarma:
I wanted to update my read on him too, but did not find the time. I will do so in the next cycle, I should have a lot of time on my hand from tomorrow evening on (wife and kids are gone for a week). Since I seem to be the only one still having him marked as scum, i give him the benefit of the doubt until I have been able to go through his filter again.
About the Epoch:
I am happy following the majority again regarding the time we travel to.
##Unvote Lynch: Goodkarma
##Lynch: risk.nuke
##Epoch: Middle Ages
And with this I'm off to bed. See you guys tomorrow.
My overall takeaway is that for someone who D1 was guns blazing "Don't townhunt, gotta scumhunt," phagga has not made good on that. In some odd ways.
(1) His scumreads pop in and out of nowhere. Drazerk was scum, then he wasn't. No update, no nothing, and more or less no discussion of Drazerk for the rest of the game. GK is scum, not scum, scum. Never gives a scumread on Sandroba, just agrees and drops a vote. Never gives a scumread OR MENTIONS Toad, drops the vote. Never drops a scumread on snb. Drops a scumread on risk during the last day, prior to that one of phagga's only interactions with risk was to say a post of risk's sounded scummy but risk was town. Which is fine, that happens. But it's curious when it's basically the limit of your interaction with confirmed scum.
Again, I'm coming for a point of thinking he's the scum in the group, but the malleability of his scumreads lets him do whatever he wants. Add onto that that he never seems to volunteer a read. There's always a request, and he notes that some read has changed, without ever having thought he might want to note that before needing to be asked.
(2) His votes on scum as a whole lack reasoning and are almost always 11th hour.
Sandroba vote is 7 minutes before deadline, and he says he hasn't read everything, seems to just be jumping on board.
Toad vote is just a toad vote, nothing more, but then he backs off later in the day, worried about a pardoner.
No vote on snb
risk.nuke vote is 1:30 until deadline, after he was townie on risk earlier
I secretly like the pardoner stuff, because I loves me some paranoia, but...his votes ALWAYS limp in on scum, bar Toad who was checked. They limp in right at deadline. There's rarely a mention of the suspect before the vote, and in risk's case, the mention was that he "sounded like scum" but was townie.
So, for now : ##vote phagga
We have unexplained damage. He fits the do-er of that damage better than others for me.
We have very little scumhunting.
We have very odd interactions with confirmed scum, and...curious votes.
One thing I want to bring up though is the waiting is odd. He posts on GK all day every day, and waits to vote scum until last-minute. But he doesn't...he's not trying to save them much. Apart from risk, he's not going around calling the others townie (He had a weird spat with someone who called snb scum, saying we didn't know snb scum, but ... that whole exchange was funky and I left it out). That's the one thing I'm puzzled by, is why is he waiting until last minute but not trying to save these guys. He can't be waiting on anyone else, so I don't get the delay and the odd votes.
THAT Oatsmaster, is more like a wall of text.
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EPT
