Newbie Mini Mafia XXXI

On November 26 2012 00:56 HeloKnight wrote:
Oats:




These posts are confusing. You say several times that you can't write a case from his posts thus far, in response to those asking you to explain yourself, but then you write a mini-case in the very same post. Why didn't you just write this case when people asked for it, instead of repeatedly saying that you can't write a case?



You say that "trying to look casual" is a scum trait, but your first few posts are looking pretty casual:


This post looks pretty "forced casual" too, but I don't know if smilies are the norm for Oats.


Why is "trying to be casual" a scum trait when you are clearly trying to be casual yourself?

On November 26 2012 09:22 HeloKnight wrote:
The most suspicious thing about yamato right now is the timing of his CC post (right after SDM posted his CC case), making it seem like he's trying to hop on/start a wagon. The problem is that I'm not confident that this makes him scum. He might have been, like he says, just commenting on the person in the spotlight.
Right now, I would be more comfortable lynching Munk-E. He's had a grand total of two posts so far, and neither of them are very useful.

The first post is just him answering Cheesecake's questions three, with a weird position completely against lurker lynching and a lot of jokes:


This post could have been done by either alignment, but I would have expected a little more by the time he commented. In addition, this is about the definition of "forced casualness" (if anyone is still using that argument). The lurker lynching position is not very thought out. Yes, townies can lurk, but that doesn't make lynching them a "dumb idea".

His second (and final) post is a commentary on Oats:


He posts this after Oats has already been discussed a lot and repeats points that have already been said. One goal of the mafia is to continue discussing pointless things to waste time. In addition, he still hasn't provided opinions on any of the more recent "controversies". For some reason, no one has called him out yet (or mentioned him at all).
I'm not confident in yamato yet, but he's at least posted some opinions and backed them up. Right now, I'd rather a M-E lynch.
##Vote: Munk-E

On November 28 2012 07:25 HeloKnight wrote:
Helo's Complete List of Reads

SDM: Strong town. The most active player, constantly probing for information, explaining his thoughts, and generally playing smart. Going through his filter you can see lots of very useful posts commenting on the situation. Very confident on this one.

Aquanim: Leaning town. He pushed his Kickstart case, but admitted it had holes when he found them, which shows he's not just tunneling one player. Not a long filter, but generally good posts.

Mr. Cheesecake: Leaning town. He's throwing suspicion onto many players, such as myself, yamato, and Jacob, which I see as a town trait. I think he should consider a town explanation on yamato's posts instead of just a scum one, and I think confirmation bias might be a factor. For instance, the post referenced in this case can also be explained by newbie town. Might be scum pushing for an easier mislynch, but I doubt it. His vote onto Munk was also odd, but he's offered an explanation that doesn't tell much, so I'll ignore it.

yamato77 Null. I've offered my opinions on him many times, and I still don't know if he's town or scum. I think he really could be either. Lynching him feels like a coinflip to me. A lot will depend on what he does tomorrow.

Kickstart: Null. Pushed Oats pretty hard early, which doesn't say much. He's done a pretty good job of explaining himself against multiple accusations, but that's most of what he's done. I'd like to hear a little more about others than just Oats.

Jacob Strangelove: Heavily leaning scum. Nearly his entire filter is just one liners, with almost nothing of value. Anything he says would be easily faked by scum. He does nothing but ask useless questions and say pretty obvious things. Will probably write a full case up for tomorrow.

Oatsmaster: I don't even know what to say. He's been basically trolling this whole game. He spams about useless stuff, and hasn't done anything to make me think he's town. The only real defense for him is the "too scummy to be scum" defense, and I don't find it very convincing. I refer people to CC's case on him for a good explanation of what I'm getting at.

I'm out of time for right now, but I'll elaborate on whatever you all want when I'm back.

On November 14 2012 12:33 Kickstart wrote:

You don't, I do - that is ok with me. Having a scum read on both you and BH and voting you over him is not as big of a leap as you are trying to make it sound. And I have not "magically twisted my vote" on you, I have given my view on you from the beginning, and unlike some - have voted once, and not by way of bandwagon.

On November 27 2012 00:09 Kickstart wrote:
Ah I get to wake up to a case on me and many questions to answer, have to say I wasn't anticipating that. I am catching crap for "defending cheese". First off I am suspicious of everyone and no one at this point is confirmed town, but if me pointing out that the cases against him are absolute SHIT, then you can claim I am defending him, but saying that a case is founded on bad logic or that I don't agree with the case is hardly scummy.



There are all the posts where I "defend" cheese, and all they say is meta cases in a noobie game where the person has only played one game each as town and scum is not worth anything to me. If you disagree then whatever, but me saying this is hardly scum, it is me trying to be a logical town. I am not going to just let shit cases fly on people when I don't think the cases hold any weight.

With that being said, I will explain why Aquas case on me is also shit. So he decides to start out by going after my first post as useless, content-less, and just a space filler. Well I take offence to that, especially given the posts of the majority of people in this thread. I think my post:

Is much better than almost anyone's first post, and it has substance. I quickly say what needs to be said about policy because focusing on it too much is horrid as town, and I point out some shit play coming out from oatsmaster.

Then I get accused of "lurking" because I didn't post for four hours. I am not sure if this is a serious accusation or him grasping at straws to try and make a case. But frankly it is ridiculous, it is the start of the game, I posted a perfectly good introduction post that asked questions of people, and I was waiting for the answer. How you could possibly accuse ME of lurking in this thread is beyond me given the activity that I have had compared to others. But I will write it off as an attempt to bolster your "case" on me.

Then the rest of your "case" is just me going after Oatsmaster in an opportunistic way. For one, I am the FIRST person who was telling him to step up his posts in the beginning and I called him out for giving a half-assed vote without ANY explanation. AND HE IS STILL FUCKING DO IT, LOOK AT HIS RECENT POST:

Really? I pointed out the fact that saying "well there isn't much to go off of" and then saying you feel he is scum is really, really, silly - but Oats just continues to tunnel Cheese. I have just pointed out that Oats is playing horrible and that I am suspicious of it. And my case on Oats is not meaningless as you would like to paint it to be, look at his posting - completely confusing and doesn't drive any discussion at all; he is then asked to please give some real reasons and sound logic for his votes and he refuses while just continuing to post nothing of substance. And it also seems to me that a shitty wagon on Cheese has formed that he is all too keen to sit on.
Now again I must say I don't know if Cheese is town or not, but the case against him is crap and not convincing to me at all. Could he still be scum? Yes, but I won't be voting on crap cases, and other than a few horrible cases on him there is nothing; as is the case with this "case" on me.

On November 27 2012 00:38 Kickstart wrote:
I am going to copy the player list and then give reads on them from what I have gathered so far, if you want a more in depth read on someone ask away but I will try and make them as substantial as I can based on what we have to work with so far.

HeloKnight: I read him as a timid townie so far. Early on he was not posting much and got some flak for making easy points, but afterwards he did step it up and defended himself and then went on to make a case on Munk-E, so I get a slight town read on him (although as with most players in the thread so far, there isn't much to go off of).

Aquanim: Despite his case on me I read him as slightly town. Actually the case on me gives me that read because aqau is activiely trying to scum hunt and bringing pressure onto people that weren't being pressured at all before, so this I like as town play and encourage him to continue doing.

Mr. Cheesecake: null read. I soft-defended him because I felt like the cases were bad and had no weight, which I think can be agreed upon by everyone. Unfortunatly most of his posting doesn't allow me to have a town read on him because he hasn't done much in the way of sticking his neck out on anything. But on the other hand he has been forced to defend himself for most of Day 1 so I give him a null read thus far.

Sonic Death Monkey: SDM is my top town read so far. Again no one is confirmed town at this point but SDM is playing incredibly well and is a benefit to town at this point. He is pressuring people, providing honest and well thought out reads on people and at this point is a huge asset to town.

Oatsmaster: I think at this point everyone knows my views on Oats, so I won't expand on them much here. I think he is slightly scummy.

Jacob Strangelove: Null-read, here is another player who I don't feel I have enough to work with. He has posted a bit but again I don't feel strongly one way or the other just because there isn't much to go off of here.

Munk-E: There isnt much to be said that is new. Two posts - both not giving us much and one is just jumping on Oats with points that have been made. I would say LURKER but if i have to choose between town and scum I would say slight scum read, simply because I feel a town player would want to be more active while a scum player would do as he has - try to hide and maybe jump on some cases if he sees an opportunity.

Kickstart: I read myself as town ! No but seriously, If YOU want a read on me just read my posts in context, I feel like I have been trying to push sound reasoning and logic throughout the game and been nothing but honest about my reads on people.

Yamato77: Too many one liners for my taste, he did provide one large general read post (much like this one) but other then that has not tried to scum hunt at all - just nothing. I have to give yamato a slight-scum read at this point because he has been around, he has posted enough, but it has mostly been one-liners with no substance. Again I feel like a town player would want to make real, substantial posts instead of just coming in with one liners on everything.

On November 16 2012 10:21 Kickstart wrote:
So anyways I looked back over the D1 lynch to read through it more carefully because it was a huge mess. Here are some of my thoughts on it.



Now the townreads aren't set in stone for everyone I put as town nor are the people I didn't mark green suspicious, this is just based off of the D1 lynch and I would like to make a case for why I think these people are town:

Regarding Z-BosoN
Here is just an outline of my views on ZB throughout the game so far because my town read on him just builds as time has gone on.

+ Show Spoiler +

So I did not like the whole SnB bandwagon to begin with and therefor was watching how ZB acted around it but off the bat I felt his posts were pro-town and contributing.
ZB came under fire for his new posting habits but the above is part of the reason why I didn't like the meta case and why I refused to lynchvote ZB.

See this quote for more of the same on why I didn't want to lynchvote ZB (made at the time when a large number of votes were on him):

+ Show Spoiler +

Then there is the day 1 voting. ZB was one of the potential lynch candidates and at a point it seemed he was goign to be the lynch (with 8 votes on his head no less!):
Note that this is right before the wild swing of votes to Hapa, so had that note happened it was ZB getting lynched.

+ Show Spoiler +

Looked bad for our pal ZB so this is "dying post":

+ Show Spoiler +

Turns out he was right (halfway at least but I suspect 100% right ^^). So in summation I've always felt pretty good about ZB and then the D1 lynch just solidified it.

Regarding DarthPunk
Basically I agree with and echo the idea that when DP was set to be lynched, he did an extremely good job of showing that he was town. And an interesting note is that like ZB, when DP thought he was the lynch, he names Hapa and BH aswell :

+ Show Spoiler +

So those are my two strong town reads out of the lynch. Again the others I showed as green or did not is only an indication of how I viewed the lynch (some of the people I left unmarked I feel are very likely town for example).

As for the people I had marked as SCUM:
Well, Hapa doesn't need much explaining :D (GJ town!).

Regarding Hopeless1der
Before the lynch I posted my read of him, and so far it all remains relevant:

+ Show Spoiler +

I just feel that his anti-town tone has continued on through the lynch and after. As for the lynch itself hopeless NEVER stuck his neck out, he constantly stayed on debears the entire time (not that hapa temporarily switch over to debears apparantlytrying to start a wagon on him?):

+ Show Spoiler +

The only thing that gives me a bit of reservation is that hopeless could have saved hapa had he switched his vote off of debears and put it on ZB at any time. But then I don't really think anyone was expecting hapa to get lynched.

Regarding strongandbig
Just take a look at this guys filter and then couple that with his votes and tell me it isn't suspicious as hell. SnB, like hopeless, never sticks his neck out on any reads and just agrees or disagrees with other peoples points. Couple that with his votes (ignore the hapa vote, it was at the VERY start of the game and it was a complete joke vote; he only votes for debears, blazinghand, and ZB). He was also oddly quiet during the pile onto hapa - while being there to laugh the most and mkae jokes afterwards??

Some reservations I have about snb is that he has gone after both hapa and hopeless postings (hapa who we know is scum and hopeless who I have the strongest read on at the moment), but scum dissing on scum isn't unheard of. Another reservation is that he has gone after BH hardcore, who I would be just as willing to lunch at this point as snb (though I would still rather go after my top read atm - hopeless).

Anyways there you have it, hopefully night actions reveal some more stuffs.