EPTGive Oats the benefit of a doubt. The thing is this, read OP. The doctor can’t protect the same target two nights in a row. This means if his claim is true, the only ones they can be sure to kill (barring an unlikely JK) is me and Oats. They most likely won’t kill Oats because he’s a huge liability for town atm. However, if Oats is scum, they really have to fear a JK protecting me, because the JK can protect me twice in a row.
Obviously this is not a 100% sure thing, but it’s enough to raise the probability of his claim being true. Scum might gamble trying to shoot me again even with a risk of JK, but this is unlikely. And if the claim is fake it’s not necessarily I who was being the target N1, but I find it likely considering I probably was the focal point both of a save and attack. A JK could’ve blocked the scum submitting the NK, but a JK will usually try to save a town read (me).
At least consider this mechanic when you analyze why I got killed,
(this was not what I was talking about earlier in the thread, at that point I was just talking out of my ass because I thought scum would read it and that it would benefit town if they feared Oats could be confirmed D3… I found it a bit interesting Helo had paid attention to and remembered that post but you guys will have to analyze that one)
At least I’d also say we’ll need blue claims in order to lynch Oats… I’ll just spell out my ideas, but contact the coaches for help.
Scenario 1: Only a cop
Oats is 100% clear.
Scenario 2: None
Oats is 100% clear.
Scenario 3: Only a JK
This is where it becomes sticky, but I think JK + cop is a too powerful setup, so it likely means either Oats or the JK has fake claimed.
Scenario 4: Cop + JK
Obv too powerful setup, Oats is scum unless there’s been a fakeclaim.
Now obviously scenario 1-2 can be turned into scenario 3-4 with a fakeclaim, which is why we need to be wary. Scum could easily set up breadcrumbs N2 but is kind of unlikely to have done it earlier. Hopefully any claim will have solid crumbing, otherwise be wary (only in scenario 3-4 obv).
When it comes to my case on Yamato I’m not sure I like it much. The part of him not reading the thread is null. He may have been selective, but I find myself being selective as well as townie especially when I’m upset. The fact that he’s upset is not a scum tell. And when it comes to his stance on Oats, would scum really take such a decisive stand when no one else is if he knows he flips blue? Unlikely imo. If Oats is his scum buddy? A little bit more unsure. But iirc he actively promoted that no one should counterclaim (you’ll need to double check this). Why would scum do this?
No, I think after the D2 shit fest, scum don’t need to fling poo, I think town is flinging poo in full force so there’s really no need to. Scum is more likely to lay relatively low.
Cheesecake – I can’t see much of any reason for him to push a wagon on Aqua if scum. Doesn’t make him town but meh, must give slight town lean.
Helo – Haven’t paid much attention to him which makes me a bit wary.
Jacob – When speaking about laying low, look at this this dude.
Kicks – He still sticks hardcore to his two scum reads. Have he ever been considerably suspicious of someone else? As someone who’s accused 100% of players in this game I find this worth looking into. In my first newbie scum game I really liked sticking to a few reads and I think CC shared a similar experience. Also, here’s Kicks 100% agreeing with one of them shortly after the blue claim:
On November 30 2012 00:50 Kickstart wrote:
I agree 100% with yamato that this claim is fucking up town pretty bad because Oats basically forced us to divert the entire thread discussion to whether or not his claim is fake or real, but I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion yamato that we lynch him anyways - what if his claim is true? ;/
I agree 100% with yamato that this claim is fucking up town pretty bad because Oats basically forced us to divert the entire thread discussion to whether or not his claim is fake or real, but I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion yamato that we lynch him anyways - what if his claim is true? ;/
Honestly this is the kind of wishy-wash stance I would expect from scum, esp if Oats is doc. I think looking into reactions to the claim can be very helpful.
Fuck this is wishy washy...
Anyway, don’t put too much weight in my reads, I just summed up my thoughts real quick. I’ve read the thread a lot but haven’t had time to research a lot tonight. Just consider what I said. The only way this can be solved is by a lot of work so hopefully you’re up for the task.
to make it look like it's a Night-Day transition.
