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On November 07 2012 05:22 Rad wrote:
@alsn
Can you please point out where I said I didn't want to vote for debears because I thought debears was town? I see myself saying the exact opposite here:
Sure, I can:
On November 07 2012 04:51 Rad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 04:26 Alsn wrote:On November 07 2012 04:17 Rad wrote:
@alsn
You think it's pretty likely, do you? Can you explain why? Because it just fits? I'm still going to see if there's anything inherently contradictory about it. But the fact remains my suspicions against Cheese were similar to what I felt about you at the time. You were extremely unwilling to vote for anyone of Cheese, debears, Clarity. Two of them are now confirmed to be town, and the last has long been suspected of being scum. @alsnI wasn't convinced of who I should vote. I didn't want to vote clarity, for the reasons I stated in the first list I made. I wanted to vote debears but no one else did, so I was questioning myself (also I was considering since he's the most active, I shouldn't vote him). I was also reading sylver as scum but there was no lynch potential on him. So I had clarity (who I was leaning town) or ___? Then the cheese incident happened and everything went into chaos. * Because of that chaos, I got 4 reads: 1. Cheese town - his reasons for claiming the first time were clear to me, but he didn't keep it under wraps. He kept spitting it out like VTs didn't notice, and then he straight up spelled it out to debears. This looked genuine to me because I understood his thought process. 2. debears town - his interactions with cheese and his agreeing with sylver being suspicious for not voting him when he still had a chance to be lynched, those things made me realize he was town (VT due to the interactions with cheese) 3. clarity probably town - also due to his interactions with cheese, not as strong, I thought he might be blue but I was leaning VT due to him claiming he PM'd the host. 4. da0ud - town, balls of steel to jump on debears, if debears gets lynched there he and cheese are prime suspects for next 2 lynches. If he's scum, he knows debears is town, so voting cheese is much safer because everyone else is already doing it. This is a main reason I find sylver scummy, for not jumping to debears when he had a chance (because if scum, he knows debears is town, and him staying on cheese is much safer). In this post you are explaining to me why you were so uncertain leading up to the lynch. Take special note to my red star and your point 2.
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You didn't say that you wouldn't vote for debears. You said that you got a read from the chaos that debears was town. Yet you voted for him. A town read.
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Anyway, I've gotten way caught up in this whole JK claim chaos. I'll really go check if I can't find a way to see if it's just a coincidence that this all fits or what. But at this point, I'm getting a pretty strong scum read from Rad. He's said outright that he was against pretty much all lynch wagons D1, yet been unable to really point to any real scum reads himself. We now know that two of the wagons were against townies, which is a pretty good reason for scum not wanting to get behind a lynch.
Basically, it's way too convenient for scum to get away with simply saying "look, all I can see are town!", because if that was an acceptable excuse, how the hell could we hold people accountable for seemingly not scum hunting?
That being said, I don't discount the possibility of say, Obzy, sylver or even da0ud being scum and Rad just not finding either of the lynch candidates so far scummy enough, but from what I've seen so far, the only one I'm inclined to agree with in that group is sylver. I'll definitely take another look, starting now as I don't want to get too caught up in this whole thing, if Djod's claim doesn't hold up, it's bound to come down crashing on him. Like I said, there's a lot of time left. I just found that when I thought about Djod's claim and what it meant, Rad + Clarity being scum seemed really likely due to the way things have progressed so far.
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Rad, yea I suppose upon closer inspection that may have been what you meant. I just thought I had caught you in a perfect scum slip/lie and didn't want to let you off the hook. I see now what you meant about wanting to vote debears and how da0ud going for him makes sense.
I still find you scummy for the reasons I mentioned, but I'll look into the other possibilities as promised.
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One last thing though Rad, if you thought the reason for Djod's tunnel vision on Clarity was that he was cop and had gotten a red result. Why would you assume that Clarity was framed and innocent and not actually scum? Has Clarity truly been that pro-town to you?
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I was just looking at Obzy's filter and concluded that pretty much the only thing he's done so far in the game has consisted of sheeping. He says he wants to vote clarity D2, but backs off because me and Rad state that we think Clarity might be town. He votes sylver because he thinks debears wanted to vote sylver.
The only original idea he's had all game was that he wanted people to look at Cheese. However, when I went ahead and did so, he didn't want to vote for him until everything blew up. All of a sudden it was quite all right to vote for Cheese, even though he had stated not a few hours earlier that "I think voting Cheese right now would be too sudden".
Sure, if he's newbie town that could all be explained away as him feeling overwhelmed. But can we take that chance? I never followed the game in question but I even recall Djod saying he managed to win as scum because he played the newbie card.
Will look into sylver next to see what I feel about him.
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Also, his insistence that me and Rad are town. Why would he think so? Djod even blocked me because he thought I was scum. It's possible he actually knows that we are both town.
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Looked over sylver's posts. I can see why people were concerned with him voting Cheese over debears, but at the same time, if he was scum he would've known that they'd both flip town. So in that case, why wouldn't he just stick with his debears vote? He must have known at the time that no matter what he said, his argument about a Cheese debears scum team would look absolutely silly in hindsight, so I don't see what he would have to gain by jumping on the Cheese wagon over staying on debears.
Then to go around and NK debears? That makes his entire voting story completely ridiculous. Why would he discredit himself like that? All he had to do was say that he wasn't convinced that Cheese was necessarily scummy. This is WIFOM, yes, but on the whole other than the voting debacle, he has been acting pretty pro-town. Unless he was lying about what he thought about debears actions in early D1, his vote pressure and follow up makes complete sense. Debears did OMGUS him, although we now know he did it because he was suspicious of sylver. I don't see what's so weird about his actions for the rest of D1 with the exception of his Cheese switch. But again, his Cheese switch seems more town-motivated than not to me.
So yea, right now I'm going with the idea that sylver is town. Unless da0ud shows up and counter-claims, I don't see how we shouldn't believe Djod. The only chance that it's a lie at this point is if a scum Djod deliberately gambled on there not being a jailkeeper to counter-claim. Which seems like a really long shot to me. So that means I need to decide what I feel about Rad, Clarity, Obzy and da0ud.
I agree with Rad that da0ud being ballsy and voting debears when everyone was going after Cheese probably makes him town. His explanation's also from what I recall generally make sense. However, I'll take a last look at da0ud and see just what I feel.
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Also, I'd like to point out that Djod breadcrumbed the exact same way in XXVIII when he claimed cop. Using a french word.
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@Rad
What do you think about Clarity's case against Obzy? Specifically, what do you think about Clarity making that case on Obzy? Does it make him look more town? or less?
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On November 07 2012 07:14 Alsn wrote:
@Rad
What do you think about Clarity's case against Obzy? Specifically, what do you think about Clarity making that case on Obzy? Does it make him look more town? or less?
EBWOP: For the record, I think it makes him look less town, but I'd like to hear your answer before I say why.
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Also, I'm interesting in hearing what Djod has in mind with regards to Clarity's PM. marv already confirmed that you're free to post whatever you like as long as you don't post his response. So I can't possibly see how it would hurt town if you tell us. Either you're scum and are lying about it, or you truly did ask and your story should check out.
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Obzy, could you outline why you think Clarity is scum? In your own words? Without referring to his case for why you are scum. I can see nothing inherently wrong about his case, so I'd like you to focus on why you think he's scum.
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EBWOP: That last comment was in response to Clarity, by the way.
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Rad
I already agree with the fact that Clarity's case against Obzy isn't necessarily wrong. But what I wanted to know was how you thought Clarity making a case on Obzy reflected on Clarity's likelihood of being town/scum.
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On November 07 2012 07:40 Clarity_nl wrote:
@ Rad and Alsn
How do you feel about Obzy's comments specifically addressed to me so far. Seeing as he has pretty much done exactly nothing but say "uh, yea, your arguments aren't wrong". I think I'd rather judge him on his case against you than how he responds to your case on him.
Basically, I don't see how he could ever refute your case. He has been apologetic, but just because it says so in a guide doesn't mean he must be scum because of it.
Either way, I don't necessarily think his response to you matters all that much. It doesn't make him look better, for sure, but until he explains why he wants you lynched, it's pretty much a null read to me.
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On November 07 2012 07:46 Rad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 07:41 Alsn wrote:
Rad
I already agree with the fact that Clarity's case against Obzy isn't necessarily wrong. But what I wanted to know was how you thought Clarity making a case on Obzy reflected on Clarity's likelihood of being town/scum. I can't think of any reason he would or wouldn't make the case on obzy that isn't based purely on WIFOM. Null tell. He made a case on obzy, great, I can see town or scum doing that, can't you? Coincidentally it will cause djo to go even crazier against us since I've only FoS'd 3 people since d2 started: obzy, djo, and sylver. Hm, I suppose it is WIFOM at that. I was referring to exactly that, him making a case against someone you FoSed earlier. Although at this point I suppose there aren't enough players that you can pick an original target anymore(other than da0ud, he seems to be the only one no one suspects).
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At this point I'm leaning towards Clarity being scum. I'm still undecided whether or not Rad is his scum partner exploiting his own town cred to defend Clarity or if he's just genuinely concerned that Clarity has been unfairly attacked(considering Djod's aggressiveness, I don't see how I can discount the possibility of the latter).
Most importantly, I initially sympathized with Clarity's statement that Djod was being unfair to him (see this post, first paragraph) and that that's why Clarity decided to make a case against debears. On the other hand, he said he had a "case on hand" against Djod if it looked like he was about to be lynched. That actually gives me the impression that he could have had the case against debears "on hand" too, just waiting for me or someone else to make a case at a similar time so it wouldn't look like he was sheeping. I kept thinking Djod might actually be scum and that Clarity was just stuck in an unfortunate situation, but seeing as Djod has now made a believable claim as JK, I think the likelihood of Clarity just not wanting to be "stuck" with a case against someone he knows to be town has gone up dramatically.
I think the Cheese claim probably came as a great relief, as Clarity had said he was "doubting himself" because no one else thought debears was scum. If Cheese hadn't claimed, Clarity would probably have had to post the case against Djodref at some point in order to stay consistent. In fact, his extreme unwillingness to post his case against Djod now has me very concerned. Why would he not post it? Even as Djodref was attacking Clarity enough that Rad felt the need to step in and defend him. Why would he not just say why he thought Djod was scummy? Now he probably never can, because Djod has a believable claim. But what am I supposed to think here? That he just wanted to give Djod another chance? Why?
He's now shown that he's perfectly willing to attack someone for using the newbie card like Obzy has done, but he was never willing to post his case on Djod... why, exactly? I find his reluctance to do so very scummy and I can't find enough town reasons in his posting to see why I should forgive that.
So without further ado:
##Vote: Clarity_nl
I'd really like it if a majority of the thread actually make up their mind well ahead of lynch so we don't get another "eeeh, I don't really wanna lynch clarity or debears but I don't know who the fuck else we should lynch" at ~3-4 hours before lynch.
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EBWOP: To my last point, you don't necessarily need to have made up your minds, but at the very least try and tell the thread why you wouldn't want to lynch anyone well in advance of the deadline so that we can at least consider alternate targets.
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EPT
