EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXX - Page 19
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Djodref
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It's not possible because we don't know for sure what role could be the last scum. If it is a roleblocker, I guess I'm going to be blocked while the NK is going to be send to me or another player (most likely Alsn). I think the best way for us is to play in the open and announcepublicly our targets. | ||
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You can be sure that I am going to target sylverfyre  | ||
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On November 07 2012 12:08 Rad wrote: @djo If clarity claims blue, I'd have to reconsider my current read on him. There was a point that I thought he might be blue, very briefly during the cheese incident, but I'm pretty convinced he's VT or scum now (obviously leaning hard towards VT). <snip> @ Rad Y u no reconsidered ? I understand that you are a stubborn guy but there should have been a limit to the confidence you had in the town read you were having on Clarity. Why did you not comment the post I've indicated you again which were consisting in the best proofs against Clarity ? | ||
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On November 07 2012 12:58 Rad wrote: @djo My trust in him is based on how similarly we seem to be thinking. You'd have to be a VT in this game to understand, I think. Surely anyone who is a VT this game had cheese's same thoughts rush through their mind when they noticed the lack of flavor text. We'd be like this little secret society, you see, that only we'd know about. Perhaps if we were just more experienced at the game we'd know this would be too OP, but we're newbies, and the idea was delicious. Cheese had the thought and ran with it, explained it to debears, debears *high fived* cheese over it, and although I had that same thought at one point in the game, I PM'd the host as soon as cheese dropped the claim the first time. By the time they were high-fiving, I had already gotten back a response, and had been brewing over why a town would be claiming right now. Was he just a VT being wreckless, or a scum trying to get people to claim? Why claim at that point when there's no reason to? Wtf? There's absolutely no reason to claim right then. Is a scum cheese trying to pull some crazy shit? That's what first went through my mind, but i realized that no, there's no fucking way a scum would do this right now, trading scum life for possible (not even guaranteed) information is a terrible trade. I can see how clarity wouldn't have necessarily come to this conclusion though, so he kept his vote on cheese. You need to look at clarity's reactions to cheese during that incident. They don't push blame, they're looking for all the appropriate answers, and everything he did (except not switching to debears) mirrored my own thoughts during the the scenario. Does that mean he's necessarily VT? Nah, but I was right about cheese and debears, and I think I'm right about clarity. Djo, if he flips red, I fully expect to be lynched. But, do you think that's a good scum move to put myself out there so much? Do you think it's a good scum move to constantly defend him against your attacks if we're a scum team? @ sylvefyre Could you also elaborate on what was going on your mind during the Cheese incident ? I would like you to explain to us what was going on in your head when you saw the claim, in a similar fashion Of course, I'm assuming that you are VT here, I'll give you some slack ^^ | ||
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On November 05 2012 08:21 Rad wrote: Please excuse my silence. I'm considering Mr. Cheesecake atm. Why did you say this ? I have my idea but I would like you to tell it first | ||
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On November 08 2012 11:23 Obzy wrote: + Show Spoiler + Base assumptions: 5 town, 1 scum Djo and Alsn are confirmed[or as good as confirmed] JK and cop each person knows that they are VT or scum, I know I'm VT so I will use myself as the example. Scum can just ignore this post xD 3 confirmed town (I am confirmed to myself) vs 1 scum - Other town will be T1 and T2. ...actually this is way too long lol there's a lot of possibilities and lots of if's it basically comes down to, I don't think there is an optimal strategy. I'll post some thoughts: Djo JKs Sylv, Alsn checks Sylv, comes back scum and DJo dies because Sylv was scum RB. He's not confirmed though - if Rad was framer and framed Sylv and killed Djo, the checks mean nothing. Same goes if the opposite. So stacking on a potential frame target isn't really worth it, it doesn't confirm anything. If Djo JKs the framer, he can't frame or kill anybody, so Alsn's check (if it is on a different target) will come back town. If it comes back scum, it either means scum held KP to get a mischeck, or he landed the check properly - in this case, I think that we can all vote for a No-Lynch and repeat the process until Alsn gets town checks and slowly confirms every member (this is under the assumption that KP is being held). In short, if scum holds KP, we should not vote and we will win without issue. Obviously, if somebody votes and stays on a target, that person is scum, and we lynch them one day afterwards to ascertain that they were not just a townie playing poorly. (We will win even if a mislynch occurs. KP being held just gives us more checks, and it's not possible for a town-cop-check return to mean scum hiding anymore - if it shows town, then they ARE town.) So scum holding KP doesn't work, the game could just be stalled out forever >.> Under that assumption, if there is no kill, then the JK target is the scum. If Alsn gets no check back and no kill occurs, it means that the JK target was not scum and was holding KP. So - if JK target roleblocks Djo, he can kill either Alsn or Djo without repercussions - really, there's nothing we can do about this. If Djo targets the wrong person, he can roleblock Alsn and kill anybody without repercussions as well. Blah blah blah ^^ This is incredibly long and the possibilities are vast. My summary - I think we should stick to our reads and not worry about optimal blue-usage strategy, but if there is no kill, we can discuss it then. If there is no kill and Alsn is roleblocked, it means JK was targetting the wrong person (I think. If JK jails Roleblocker, can the scum RB still RB?) and scum held KP. If there is no kill and Alsn can get a town check, we can repeat this indefinitely - so scum should just give up >.> The game would take forever but inevitably end in our victory and would be a tremendous pain so it'd be nice if under those circumstances scum just conceded defeat. There are too many possibilities to actually pick out an optimal scenario. I am in favor of (currently) lynching Sylv, then Rad. If scum is da0ud under those circumstances, we lose. If not, we win. If Alsn manages to get a town check on one of those three (or myself I guess, approaching it from a different angle,) then we will win for certain. As a result I expect Alsn to die tonight, unless scum is framer and Djo roleblocks him properly. + Show Spoiler + Too many possibilities, Blues should just do what they think is best and state what they did before the night ends, but I intend to vote Sylv > Rad lol. if scum is da0ud, hopefully Alsn is able to confirm one of the three as town, but if a scum result is returned, it is not indicative of anything, due to how many possibilities there are lol. o_O Suuuuuper complicated not knowing if we have a RB or a framer so they must, as a result, be both. I don't think there's an enormous amount that we can discuss about it haha :X Just trust our blues. It would be best to continue in the way we have been IMO :0 If anybody has a magical solution to how blues should be best optimized, then we should, of course, do it but I don't see one.(sheesh this post is super long and kinda pointless in the end) I'm also expecting Alsn to die tonight, he is the most dangerous guy for the remaining mafia right now. If it doesn't die, the probability that I have successfully jailed a framer or a goon is high but there is also a slight possibility for the mafia to have not sent the NK on purpose. I'm going to target sylver and Alsn should keep his target for himself. Let's discuss tomorrow about the conclusions we can make from a no-death night if nobody dies if nobody dies. We can think about it but not waste too much time on it. In my opinion, the fact that the scum has not given up yet means that he is roleblocker, but I might be wrong In the meantime, we should go back to good old scumhunting. I have a very good case against sylver in my mind so I'm going to prepare it and post it when I can. I'm also going to post why I think daoud and Obzy are town. I don't want to look into Rad so I hope that someone else is going to take care of that for me. | ||
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On November 08 2012 11:50 Rad wrote: I did reconsider. I had to throw out all my thoughts about him being VT, but like I said, there was a moment during the cheese chaos that I thought he might be blue. Also, scum clarity NOT at least attempting to ride on my VT story didn't make sense to me. The cop claim was like... what, why would he do that? Is he really cop? So, I held a little hope that he would flip blue and was spending my time thinking about who was the scum if he did (was thinking you and obzy). @ Rad And why would you want to believe in his claim ? The counter claim from Alsn, the amount of evidence against Clarity and the fact that he has went AWOL like all caught mafia players do should have been enough to kill any hope that you could foster for a town Clarity. Why did you choose to waste your time on an improbable scenario ? | ||
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@ sylvefyre What did you mean by "pseudo-claim" when talking about Clarity post in response of Cheese claim ? | ||
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On November 08 2012 12:32 Rad wrote: Because I thought he was town? And you pissed me off yesterday. I liked the story of "clarity turns out blue, djo scum, rad wins" better than "clarity turns out scum, djo thinks his confirmation biased arguments were right after all, rad is sad  "Also, clarity was clearly going to be lynched. Not much else to talk about there. May as well entertain some other interesting scenarios, some what-ifs, cause that's fun to me and I can get people's thoughts in the meantime (maybe read into them somehow). It's cool getting yelled at for doing that. <3 Fun game, I guess. @ Rad You don't know how much pissed off I was at you yesterday. I was literally raging when you accused me of blue hunting. My claim was totally emotional, I did it because I wanted you and sylvefyre to STFU about this nonsense. My analysis of Clarity behavior in his interactions with me and with Cheese was clearly showing good signs of mafia. I still don't understand how you could bashed these arguments. Especially the one where I show you that Clarity avoided discussion with me I think you were the one suffering from confirmation bias, not me  | ||
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On November 08 2012 13:07 sylverfyre wrote: When I read this post from clarity, I took it to mean that he was trying to establish himself as town-aligned, knowing that Cheesecake didn't know at the time that everyone had the VT PM. Taking advantage of CC's incomplete information I found really scummy, and was my first big tell towards finding Clarity scum. Ok, thanks. I'm still waiting for your complete and detailed story concerning your train of thoughts when you have discovered the Cheese incident for the first time. Would you be able to be as precise as Rad ? I would greatly appreciate it ^^ | ||
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On November 08 2012 13:12 sylverfyre wrote: Rad, don't you see that the same is true of the accusations Djo is making at me? I think we're looking in the complete wrong direction. @ sylverfyre You should better wait for the association case I'm going to make to prove that you are his partner. My case against you is not even published yet that you are discrediting it already ? Why are you trying to buddy Rad ? Why do you think debears was killed ? Who is the last scum in your opinion ? | ||
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On November 08 2012 13:32 Rad wrote: @Obzy Because I'd be happier with djo being wrong and me being right If clarity flipped blue, you and djo are scum (in my head). That sounds more fun, and still gets town the win, cause I would have tunneled the shit out of both of you. Do you realize you got town confirmation with everyone just because of your claim that you didn't really want to play anymore? Actually da0ud's reaction to that made me really suspicious of him. I get shit on like I'm potential scum even though my story and actions line up perfectly throughout the entire game? Think I'm a scum mastermind after 1 game (in which I was town)? I don't know what to think about sylver atm. I also think it probably doesn't matter because he'll be lynched no matter what. And if it's not him, it's me, so why bother thinking about him (you guys are going to take anything I find as potential scum pushing your opinions, and I think everyone here already knows I'm not great at reads, so it's not like I'm going to find anything reading sylver's filters all day). I'm probably going to think more about who's scum if he's not cause that's way more interesting to me. That sort of thing might save us the game if he flips town, cause then it's all eyes on me and I'll have to convince myself out of it to get town the win. If you lynch me, better make a backup plan, cause I'm flipping mfing VT. Scum should NK me or sylver (if sylver's not scum) to make this shit super interesting and at least end on a fun note ^^ @ Rad You sure understand nothing about scum mentality when it's time to choose a target for the NK Scum is going to lose the game if they keep confirmed blue players (Alsn and me) alive...Let's make something interesting to help you improve, okay ? I've found a lot of interesting things in Clarity's filter and his interactions with the other players. So why don't you go over Clarity's filter once again while keeping in my mind that
Please have a deep look on how Clarity interacts with Obzy, daoud and sylverfyre and post an analysis of his filter. I would not mind some comments on Clarity interactions with you What do you think of it ? It's quite fun to do now that we have more information ^^ | ||
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On November 08 2012 13:53 Obzy wrote: I guess that makes sense. I pointed out how if clarity flipped blue, it doesn't say anything about Djo, but it would make me look bad; that's certainly true. Do I realize I'm confirmed town? Of course o_O I've felt a lot better since making my post; I don't have to worry myself half to death, and we hit scum properly today so I'm happy. My only worry is that if we mislynch twice in a row (Like - if da0ud is scum, and we go Sylv-->you, hypothetically) that it'd be bad obviously, but strategy with blues can't resolve this (aka for the next 24 hours during this night period), and there's no point in worrying if it's between you/da0ud[unlikely imo] until the unlikely (IMO~) scenario that Sylv flips town. I liked da0ud's reaction to the events that had occurred. I think that the slight language difficulty put me at ease a bit, like - how could he be lying while still typing that way? His post literally brought a smile to my face as I was reading it. It felt too genuine, and that's all my own defense really was - honesty and being genuine. I don't want you to be scum, and I think Sylv is, but there are only six people left. I can't blame you for wanting the game to turn out a different way while still having a town victory, but I am going to be content with merely having a town victory (period). I suppose I shouldn't be thinking about contingency plans for two days ahead, I should just think about tomorrow. I'm getting a bit ahead of myself, and apologize. @ Obzy As I've said to Rad, I think that going through Clarity's filter once again now that we know for sure that he was scum is a pretty good exercise. And that can bring good and relevant information for tonight and tomorrow. It's up to you but I would like to see your post-mortem analysis of his filter. | ||
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<snip> btw I made that suggestion to scum not because I think they'd take it, but because I think that would make this super interesting. Don't you think? Imagine "town sylver dies from NK." All eyes point to me don't they? Or is it scum trying to WIFOM you into lynching me? Or "town rad dies from NK." Same story. How do you read that? <snip> @ Rad It's ok, it was totally up to you... I'll have to write down my association case myself then ^^ You should maybe ask sylverfyre about his games in IRC after game. I imagine that they are more quick and more based on chatting than our game but I don't know for sure. To answer to your question about the NK, if you want to see the game from a mafia point of view, you have to consider how many mislynches have to happen for the last mafia player to win. We are now in a 5vs1 situation. Let's assume that I cannot prevent any night kill. Tomorrow is 4vs1 and if a mislynch happens followed by a night kill then it's down to a 2vs1 situation. Then another mislynch seals the mafia victory ! The last mafia player, whoever he is, is 2 mislynch away from victory. Right now, it is clear that sylverfyre and you have the biggest potential for a mislynch (I'm saying this because one of you is town for sure, I don't believe a single instant that you are both town) so mafia is never going to get rid of you. The last mafia player wants you in the game the longest time possible (if you are town) so when sylverfyre is posting this+ Show Spoiler + On November 07 2012 23:31 sylverfyre wrote: <snip> As for who I think is scummy? I'm thinking it's Obzy or da0ud. Rad still seems genuine to me, Alsn counterclaimed the way he was forced to. You also have to consider that having confirmed players around reduces greatly the possibility of a mislynch to happen. Having confirmed town players is great for the general town atmosphere because scum cannot create confusion by spreading doubts about them and their reads and cases. Having a confirmed cop like Alsn is better for town because he can confirm more town players. The longer Alsn is alive, the worst the situation becomes for scum to get the mislynches he need. I hope that I'm not helping the scum to realize this but I guess he already knows it perfectly. Alsn is the #1 target because he is our most reliable tool to prevent the town from mislynching. A NK on you or sylverfyre would reduce the possibility of a mislynch to happen. I know that it's less fun but this is going to happen. | ||
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On November 08 2012 15:06 Rad wrote: @djo Yep, I understand and agree with everything you said about who will get NK'd. Just thought it would be cool for the scenario I talked about I don't understand how that is a sylver scum slip but I believe you're town and you were right about clarity when I was wrong so I'll just have to believe you. @ Rad It's a scumtell, not a scumslip Right now, you are looking very bad because of your hard-defense of Clarity. Even if you have to best explanations in the world for it, and I personally find your explanations and your motivations believable and consistent (the breadcrumb and the PMs to marv give your story much credit), it's going to be difficult for anyone to believe that you are really town and you have to get lynched for defending Clarity like this, sooner or later. So, if you are town, you are the perfect player to keep until lylo (the 2vs1 situation in our case). I don't see why sylverfyre would take you as more genuine than Obzy so I guess that he wants you around, hence buddying you and so on... I don't know if I have explained it well or not... | ||
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On November 08 2012 14:35 sylverfyre wrote: You've been attacking me for the entire length of this game. Why do I need to wait for you to post anything to criticize the things you've been saying all game? @ sylverfyre Why are you not posting anything against Obzy or daoud ? Are you repeating the same mistake Clariry did, trying to argue with me all day long ? Bring the case of your life against who you think you find scum and maybe then (only maybe) I'm going to change my mind about you. I strongly believe that you are the last scum and I'm preparing something against you. I've noticed that you don't answer all my questions for you but, if you prefer to spend your time attacking rather than defending, I might be able to let you off the hook for this one. But you should not waste your time with this kind of comment. | ||
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On November 08 2012 15:48 Rad wrote: I gotcha djo. Do you think it's possible for me to be a good enough scum to plan out all the VT stuff so perfectly on the spot when cheese claimed, plant a meaningless (except to VTs that were unaware of the other PMs) breadcrumb before any of that happened, and then react exactly how you'd expect a VT to react? This is my second game of mafia, do you think that's a realistic scum plan (hey scum partner clarity even though we realize everyone else knows the VT flavor text because we're scum and marv PM'd it to us, I'm going to plant it as a breadcrumb just in case some stupid VT doesn't realize it and makes a big deal out of it, but you shouldn't do that, instead you should probably claim blue or something at some point since it would make us look super suspicious otherwise, unlike my plan of defending you for the entire game against arguments that don't make sense vs a newbie VT)? Or maybe you're unsure if this is really my second game? Look at me last game, do you think I was looking so far into the future for a scum game one day that I just played like a newbie so I could eventually lay down the perfect master scum plan (in another newbie game!)? I mean seriously, I don't get how my story doesn't confirm me lol, unless you think I'm just THAT GOOD. I don't get how obzy's pity case is more confirming than my entire game VT case. Show me anyone else in this game that has their entire game that figured out and clearly able to explain it, even with the WTF moment that cheese brought into the game where I acted perfectly VT. Am I master scum or am I just a super honest newbie VT that can explain his entire story with ease because it's real? If sylver flips town (yeah, I'm speculating, let's do it), do you really think it's me over obzy? Or even da0ud? Yeah, I said he's got balls of steel from the debears move, but that could have been scummy balls of steel. I have no idea at this point cause I suck at figuring that out. @ Rad I wish your reads were as good as your defense To be honest, I don't think that you are scum, everything in Clarity's filter indicates to a partnership with sylverfyre. Lynch this bastard and it's going to be GG. Thanks for your post though... | ||
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On November 08 2012 15:55 da0ud wrote: Just catching up now. Got sh!t 2/3 of day at work where I did not make money i was truly hope to get I know how good and invested Djo is in this game. He want to shine as the mastermind of it. He has barely slept over the past few days. I feel something fishy. Would there be any chance that Djo could have fakeclaimed as mafia RB in order to bully/buss his partner Clarity ? What I truly believe at the moment is : Obzy, me are VT Alsn is Cop Sylver looks really bad and if my assumption goes nowhere I will go after him on D3. Rad, there could still be a chance he would be scum but unlikely. Djo, mafia RB : unlikely as well - BUT I KNOW HE IS CAPABLE OF IT ! @ daoud Once again, your level of paranoia is a good indication for me that you are indeed town. I understand your doubts given our previous history but I think that the fact that Alsn has confirmed my claim should allow you to believe me as well. I'm a little disappointed that Alsn did not say anything on he fact that we share some extra-information together that should make us 100% confirmed to each other. I hope to have some comment on this before he dies... Even if I chose to bus my partner, please note that I have "discovered" Clarity before anyone else. He was pretty much under everyone's radar before my very first case against him. There is no need to bus your partner like this when no one is paying attention. | ||
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On November 08 2012 16:21 da0ud wrote: I think it is possible. Usual games are 13 players 10v3 so 23% of scum people On this one 7v2 hence only 22% of scum, which is a slight hedge to town. Only one power role for mafia. I would imagine that 2 power roles for town would get the game even more imbalanced. On top of that, Djodref is already diverting attention on Alsn saying he is the most usefull town right now. I don't disagree, but if I were mafia I would not let Djo alive because he is the sharpest player right now. He can write many cases, etc. If he is still alive tomorrow, I think there is something fishy. @ daoud Should we start this conversation again when we are both in lylo together ? Can I recommend you to go through Clarity's filter and make an analysis of his interactions with the other players ? | ||
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