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On November 06 2012 08:54 mkfuba07 wrote:
I don't know why, but something about draz is making me think he's actually town. Doesn't it seem like a really stupid move to pull that shit after having your vote parked on him all day? Like, I feel like his plan as scum would have been to bus hope, so why would he pull that shit right around the deadline? It would have been his whole purpose behind voting hope in the first place? Does that make sense?
That one's easy. Park your vote on your scumbuddy who isn't going to get lynched anyway... until "oh shit, he's getting lynched", panic and unvote.
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Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk
Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal.
Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax
Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched.
Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless.
Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today.
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On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote:
But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way.
Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch.
Town doesn't have their vote on someone they don't want to kill 4 minutes before the deadline in a very contested race.
You cannot tell me that Drazak had his vote there, but was just too careless to take it off in favour of someone he felt WAS scummy. His vote was there because he wanted to make it look like he wanted to kill Hopeless1der. Except when push came to shove he suddenly didn't want to kill Hopeless1der anymore.
Scum doesn't act that stupid. Except they do. Risen pulled that crap in some game (look in the award thread). He was called too dumb to be scum and coasted by on that to an easy scum victory. However, town get last-second jitters too.
My main problem is that Drazak is not explaining his thought process. A town voteswitch would be able to say what was their reasoning. Drazak has NOT explained how he went from "lynch", "wait whoops no, lets not" back to "yeah, lets lynch" in the space of 2 minutes.
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On November 06 2012 09:43 kushm4sta wrote:
People are going to say this is confirmation bias, but if you look for the golden moment when a scum would likely bus on the bandwagon timeline that acro layed out for us, it's right around dp.
It's why I have DP as null from the vote. It was when the wagon was already rolling, but early enough to not look suspicious. However, town jumps on at that time too. You should just keep in mind that the mere fact of him being on the wagon does not mean he's town. It doesn't make him scum automatically either.
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On November 06 2012 09:46 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:38 Acrofales wrote:
Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk
Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal.
Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax
Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched.
Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless.
Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today. I don't agree with your conclusions. I think the only person that gets any town cred from this lynch is prom for pushing the lynch onto others so hard. Thrawn and risk had to hammer because they were being called out on it by prom and would have looked terribad had they not sealed a lynch. Kush and draz both derailed things in their own special ways. Aside from prom MAYBE Mkfuba gets some cred for voting with the initial rush and helping create a scum lynch out of thin air. Maybe. All in all your analysis is poor IMO.
Lol. I believe you're forgetting me for getting it started in the first place, but draw the conclusions you will. I just posted mine. Not saying they are the ONLY way of interpreting the vote. I get a green vibe on thrawn from that. And a slightly green vibe on mkfuba.
PS. I dedicate the kill to Mattchew and Muso. Two players who knew what was up when they died for the cause 
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On November 06 2012 09:48 drazak wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:46 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 09:31 kushm4sta wrote:
But drazak never pretended to want to lynch him. It was always a vote to pressure him out of afk. I don't see the scum motivation for taking your vote off like that. Scum would also not draw attention to themselves in quite so obvious a way.
Any scum would have left their vote on hopeless, because it was pretty clear hopeless was going to be lynched anyway. As soon as all those people voted hopeless at once it was pretty clear that he was the lynch. Town doesn't have their vote on someone they don't want to kill 4 minutes before the deadline in a very contested race. You cannot tell me that Drazak had his vote there, but was just too careless to take it off in favour of someone he felt WAS scummy. His vote was there because he wanted to make it look like he wanted to kill Hopeless1der. Except when push came to shove he suddenly didn't want to kill Hopeless1der anymore. Scum doesn't act that stupid. Except they do. Risen pulled that crap in some game (look in the award thread). He was called too dumb to be scum and coasted by on that to an easy scum victory. However, town get last-second jitters too. My main problem is that Drazak is not explaining his thought process. A town voteswitch would be able to say what was their reasoning. Drazak has NOT explained how he went from "lynch", "wait whoops no, lets not" back to "yeah, lets lynch" in the space of 2 minutes. what, I explained my thought process, I don't think it's fair to lynch someone on a lurker lynch and then see a post about being in meetings or busy all day, I don't think that's a cool thing to do.
Then how do you explain the "but lets not no-lynch" with a vote on Prom... at 4 minutes before the deadline. That's what I mainly don't understand. Also, how did you think it suddenly WAS fair to do that lynch 2 minutes later?
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On November 06 2012 09:57 drazak wrote:
I would have unvoted earlier if he had checked into the thread earlier.
So you are okay with killing an inactive, but not with killing someone who jumps into the thread at crunch time when he is about to get lynched?!
Lol. This logic.
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Okay, lets go with the advice!
Jailers/medics: draw your own conclusions. Not giving scum any more of a list to kill into than the incredibly obvious one they already have.
Vigis and SK: now is your chance to kill scum! Shoot the crap out of Drazak.
Cops: draw your own conclusions. We may have a framer on the loose. Pick someone who is not Drazak and you think might be scum.
Roleblockers: not sure. Drazak is an obvious choice, but maybe too obvious. Imho go for your second-highest scum read (assuming you're not braindead and have Drazak as your first scum read).
And yes, I know it's pretty unlikely to have those roles, but some might still be possible, so throwing all advice out there. Note the presence of the SK in this list. You really should still be helping town. You have hidden well and if you keep this up, it'll be hard to find you, especially when we're still hunting down a scum as well. I for one will prioritize finding scum over you, especially if you help us out by blowing Drazak up.
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On November 06 2012 10:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
acro, if we catch an sk what do we do with them? assume that catch = confirmed, just hypothetically
Well, at some point the SK has to die for town to win. However, at the moment I have no quibbles with an SK who uses his KP to help town and will put minimal effort into hunting him while I can still hunt scum.
Does that answer your question?
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On November 06 2012 13:25 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 09:38 Acrofales wrote:
Kush's voting pattern actually makes him look more innocent. Dumber, but more innocent. He believed Hopeless1der's claim (goddamnit Kush, I hope you learned your lesson) and unvoted. Then Prom started yelling to get the hell back on Hopeless1der and Kush complied. He only moved his vote off again when the deal was already sealed.
Also, Risk didn't strictly hammer. He placed his vote on the guy who was already getting lynched: he consolidated and ensured last-minute shenanigans were impossible. Here's the history:
Hopeless sits at 5 votes: drazak, kushm4sta, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk
Pretty much simultaneously: kush unvotes and Prom votes. I believe Prom thought he was sealing the deal.
Hopeless still at 5 votes: drazak, Acrofales, mkfuba07, DarthPunk, Promethelax
Kushm4sta hammers (in non-bolded text), Hopeless is gonna get lynched.
Thrawn also hammers, 7 votes on Hopeless.
Drazak unvotes. In actual fact this unvote is COMPLETELY pointless. However, I doubt that he actually knew that at the time, given his behaviour.
After this, Risk votes and Drazak revotes. Finally Kush jumps off again.
Man, I love this train. Either that was a fucking professional bus by Prom and Thrawn or they are town. I am obviously town.
To some extent, I also like mkfuba in the deal, but less than Prom and Thrawn.
Imho the vote says nothing about DP or risk.
Drazak in particular looks like scum from this. Kush is just another layer on weird bullcrap in his already weird bullcrap play. The real problem is going to be finding the SK in this. Release is an option for not giving a flying fuck. However, everybody looking townie in this deal could also be an SK, because I think we already established that the SK should be playing with town today. So, right after lynch you thought I looked scummy. Even when you knew exactly what my actions were. Now that you look back and notice that town think I am town for my play I look townie. Remember after lynch when you said Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 08:16 Acrofales wrote:
HELL YEAH. Now how about we take a good look at Prom and Drazak, who REALLY didn't want that lynch to happen.
FUCK YEAH. Nailed that one. and Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 08:22 Acrofales wrote:On November 06 2012 08:18 Promethelax wrote:
ebwop: did I NOT hammer him?
don't you lump me in with Draz who jumped a vote he had already made. I hammered the bastard and made sure people stayed on him. On the one hand, yes. On the other hand, it could be a last minute bus. Will have to take a closer look at that. Draz, however, is definitely looking terrible for that, roflol. you were pretty up in the air right after lynch. Just walk me through your thought process before and after, why was I scummy at first and afterwards I was super duper pro-town as green as the claimed cop? Also your read of Kush looking more innocent for his voting. I don't get it, explain like I'm retarded. Thanks.
As you may have surmised by my absense in the thread, I left after my vote. Upon my return I wanted mostly to just read to see the flip and skimmed the previous posts. In that time, the general impression I had gotten from you was given by these posts:
On November 06 2012 07:28 Promethelax wrote:
Sorry, I'm writing up my case on Acro.
Seriously are we, as a town, sheeping onto a lurker here in d2?
Someone who isn't acro had better have a case written. This is bad play. Get yourselves together and at least post a reason for your vote besides the fact that he isn't here to defend himself and is therefore an easy lynch to push through.
On November 06 2012 07:35 Promethelax wrote:
Where the fuck did you all go? We were having a real involved thread there for a while and now everyone is on the lurker lynch and so convinced of it that they vanish. Leaving me and DP to slum around alone together. The hell...
This is reluctance to vote for Hopeless1der. I would even go so far as to call it a soft defense: I interpret it as "he's a lurker, yes, but that's no reason to kill him now".
Obviously that changed, and upon closer analysis your behaviour seems more inline with someone who cared about the lynch, would have preferred to lynch someone else at first, but when no other lynch was possible MUCH preferred a lynch on Hopeless1der than a no-lynch. That does not seem like scum behaviour, in fact, quite the opposite. Is it possible you are scum, thought it over, figured he probably couldn't be saved anyway with risk and thrawn still voting and decided to use the lynch for brownie points? Yes. But it's so unlikely that I'm letting you cash in those brownie points and calling you town over this. SK never made sense for you: all the main bits of my case against you are "prior knowledge" problems, which an SK doesn't have, so my reading not-scum equates to town.
Regarding Kush: I did a little thought experiment where I put myself in Kush's shoes. Assume Kush is town. We know he's absolutely obsessed by flavour. It is possible that he really was swayed by that claim. He unvoted because of it. Then peer pressure bullied him back on. When his vote was no longer needed, he jumped ship again. Does this sound like something Kush could do? To me it does.
Does this mean Kush is town? No. It just means that for Kush, I can think up a plausible townie explanation, while for Drazak I am not seeing a single way of making sense of it from a town viewpoint. Sure, his voting is inconclusive, but his utter lack of ability to explain it afterwards is what is really bugging me. I also cannot forget
On November 06 2012 06:39 drazak wrote:I don't want to vote for prom but I will if it means a lynch, I think he's town and anyone who thinks otherwise is probably scum  (
At the time I just prayed everybody ignored it, because a wagon on someone for a stupid post like this is what lynches town more often than scum. However, I don't think we can ignore the fact that this post just absolutely reeks of newbie scum. By far the easiest way of reading it is scum trying to jibe his earlier assertions that Prom is town with the need to actually vote for him to make a lynch happen. At the time, a vote based on this would've been really bad. However, taken with the rest of the evidence it's pretty much Drazak claiming scum both before the vote and at the vote.
Regarding your role advice:
<snip>
My own advice to blues:
JK(also take a look at the rb column): you know who to choose between. The guys who look really townie. We're in a decent spot right now so just get out here and do your best.
Cop: check someone you have a red read on. BC your check and save it, we're lynching Draz tomrrow whatever check you get on anyone so assuming you have more ability to check (not a 1 off) use it n3 and reveal as soon as d3 starts the results of both your checks.
SK/Vig knocking out scum is where it is at, Draz is a good choice. Even if he isn't scum (unlikely, I know) the thread will be more conducive to a scum hunt next day with him gone. SK, your best bet is to work with town, esspesially if you took check immune, get scum and you'll be fine.
RB (or JK if you want to go this way): RB Draz, we have a confirmed scum who may be an active power role (RB or Framer) don' let him use his role and don't let mafia use him for the kill because he would be too obvious to RB.
Mafia: you should consider using your kill on Draz, that will throw us into WIFOM and it will hurt town sooooooooooo much.
Acro: now that you have a town read on me (I think) what do you make of my RB claim. I think that matt probably saved his 1-shot and that mafia has a RB, thoughts?
Alright, I'm out again for a while. I'll be back well before dawn though, no worries.
Mafia having a RB seems very plausible. They might have gotten a whiff of blue on you based on your secretive roleclaim. Zealos jailing me because he had a townread on you makes sense as well.
As for our own RBers, that's the only advice we differ on. RBers should really keep the wifom alive. Blocking the scum kill is far more important than blocking whatever role Drazak might have. I urge RBers to draw their own conclusion about second-guessing scum and who will perform the hit.
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On November 06 2012 15:10 Release wrote:
If someone can give me a good reason to post my acro (case) thing now, I'll probably do so, but as of now, i don't see any particular reason for doing so.
I'll get the thing up tomorrow closer to the resolution period (7am PDT, not that much closer).
Hold me accountable to these figures to prove that i have done it already:
(from MS word)
6843 words
32068 characters (w/o spaces)
38628 characters (w/ spaces)
Yeah, go ahead and wait til the deadline. I don't think your case has much immediate urgency. Looking forward to a page full of LOL.
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@Release: what do you think of the possibility that there is a framer?
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I don't know why everybody keeps referring to it purely as a lurker lynch. The case clearly points out some mindset problems. You make it sound as if it was a random choice between Release, mkfuba and him, which, imho, it really wasn't.
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Typo. He had a townread on me, not you.
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Okay... Release. We have established that you don't like my style of writing cases. Is there anything that you actually find scummy, rather than unlikeable?
As for the dichotomy, it entirely 100% covers all cases. I just posted the 4 possible situations (discounting SK, who for all intents and purposes has the same information as town at that point). If you feel the conclusions I draw from one of them is wrong (namely, as you indicate, that I am scum and was pulling the bluff of the century), you are free to say so. You're wrong, btw.
Now a bit more about the cases.
I'm not going to claim my case on Hopeless1der was terribly strong. At the time I wasn't actually planning on voting with it. It was more an update of my findings, because earlier I had listed Hopeless1der as reading townie and I found that I no longer did so. It was more a case to gather feedback and spark discussion than a "lets lynch Hopeless" case at the time. However, as time went on I found Prom looking slightly less scummy. My entire thought process is layed out in the thread: I even wanted to no-lynch at one point, because nobody was talking, I was not feeling secure enough about Prom anymore and I thought it was mylo. When people came back and started talking and I learned it wasn't mylo, I figured Prom was back on the table. However, the longer the discussion with Prom (and the other people active at the time) went, the less I felt a Prom lynch. My only alternative at that time was Hopeless1der, whose defense I was not particularly happy with (I could explain it post-hoc, but what's the point, he flipped scum).
Why were you off the table at the time?
1. Your case on Kush, with connections and all that jazz. It seemed too farfetched to be some crazyness made up by scum.
2. The main point of my case on you was based on a misunderstanding.
3. Your defense seemed adequate at the time.
I presume that explains my thought process enough? You still haven't really said what you think of Drazak. You agree that he needs to be killed asap?
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Regarding safeclaims: Hopeless1der basically admitted to the fact that they have them. So stfu about that bullcrap theory.
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As long as we believe Thrawn, lynching Kush is a terrible idea.
The options are that he is town, and SK or framed. However, Kush's behaviour at the vote is not indicative of SK. Thus it cannot be used as evidence except for a "framed scum". Luckily, we have that part pretty easy. The OP says framers can't frame themselves. We find the second scum member first (cases incoming after action deadline) and if he's a framer then Kush could be scum.
Otherwise, Kush may still be the SK based on the rest of his behaviour, but it's impossible that he's scum.
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On November 07 2012 03:49 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 03:47 risk.nuke wrote:On November 07 2012 03:36 Promethelax wrote:
I see you got the same feeling from that question as I did Risk. God, that is what makes seeing you as scum so hard but you aren't really contributing. Can I expect a dawn post from you with reads in it? Why? Scum should get the same conclusion about fuba. I haven't really read the thread or scum hunted since last night. So probably no dawn post. I just wanted to make sure people didn't miss fuba claim SK. Because that isn't the first instance of you posting my thoughts before I post them. Townie mindset. Well there are 3 or 4 hours left. Throw one together. Be afraid to die.
SK hunting is not just townie. Scum should be looking for the SK at this point too. If not to shoot him now, then at least to be able to push a lynch onto him and get some town credit.
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Vote Acro for president! You know I'd be good for it!
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On November 07 2012 05:19 Promethelax wrote:
Already sent in my absentee ballot. Don't you worry.
Kush, Acro didn't claim vt, just his Name, though you are right I should have remembered to put him on the list.
Acro, I wasn't saying that particular thought of Risk's made his mindset seem townie. There have been a number of occasions when he has said essentially exactly what I wanted to say. This was one of those times.
My last post will be in about 1.5 hours. I think my reads are pretty clear and since that is before the action deadline I don't want to just give scum a big list of exactly what they want to know.
I want input on this though, is it more beneficial to town for me to give my full list of reads before the action deadline or to not post them at all unless I survive until d3.
I am generally in favour of posting, even if it runs the risk of changing scum actions. Don't out blues or anything stupid like that, but your scumreads and townreads are good to have.
Of course, the best time is after the action deadline.
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EPT
