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Ack, what?
Z-Bo probably not scum for hammering like that. Not definitely, but I don't see it.
On October 23 2012 07:46 austinmcc wrote:
Drazak
Almost 24 hours ago, you were scummy on v7 and "probably a little scummy" on keirathi.
Do those reads still hold? If not, why?
What is your read on marv?
Who in the thread is your #1 townread?
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Keirathi,
If you think Z-Bo's hammer was "terrible" why do you also think he's scum? Why would scum openly make a terrible hammer vote?
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Okay, makes a little more sense if you've got extra worries like that.
But he only had 2 votes. I don't see scum being that afraid of dying with 2 votes, when he hadn't picked up fresh votes in a while. Like, he would have been worried much sooner, all day, and could have voted earlier, or pushed v7 earlier, or done things that weren't just dicking around with hapa. If he were scum and actually worried about being lynched, I don't understand why he'd spend his day in a giant fight with hapa, rather than doing something all scummy.
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On October 23 2012 09:38 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: if ZB is scum, hammering totally makes sense, no matter how bad it is and how much it puts him in the spotlight. Unless he can convince everyone else of a stronger candidate than himself or v7, which I don't think he could, one of them was probably going to die. Might as well take out the townie, and then let people play WIFOM games of "why would scum make a terrible hammer".
So, I'm paranoid and I usually think things like this. However, IF he was going to take out a townie and play WIFOM games, then I would expect him to do that. Instead, you pounce on him, and he pretty quickly looks through your filter and finds that quote about dumb hammers.
If he were scum wanting to WIFOM, I would expect him to WIFOM. Instead, he seems to have gone to look at the filter of his attacker, and bring up something specific to you where you said you weren't concerned about dumb hammers. i.e. he's concerned with your attack on him, rather than WIFOMing the scumminess of his hammer.
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^
Not sure if the above makes full sense, but I screwed up in newbie XVI under similar circumstances. 2 possible scums, 1 had an optimal mislynch on me, the other had an optimal mislynch on townie X.
I went with "They each have obvious mislynches, so I'll go with the other guy cuz he probably made the suboptimal kill to WIFOM us." Except the other guy NEVER WIFOMed the night kill, he just kept saying he wasn't scum, and I lynched him, and he flipped town.
If he were going to WIFOM over the hammer, I would expect him to start out with WIFOM and not with looking through your filter.
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I find that less likely than scum-Z-Bo right now
He couldn't be sure that someone would make that argument. So now he figured he could hammer as scum and let someone else do the dirty work (or a scumbuddy do the dirty work) and bring up a defense based on what happened to me in Newbie XVI concerning a WIFOM argument that one of his attackers might make.
I also still think the pressure is overblown.
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EBWOP: Less likely than TOWN Z-Bo right now
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On October 23 2012 09:51 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2012 09:41 austinmcc wrote:On October 23 2012 09:38 Keirathi wrote:
EBWOP: if ZB is scum, hammering totally makes sense, no matter how bad it is and how much it puts him in the spotlight. Unless he can convince everyone else of a stronger candidate than himself or v7, which I don't think he could, one of them was probably going to die. Might as well take out the townie, and then let people play WIFOM games of "why would scum make a terrible hammer". So, I'm paranoid and I usually think things like this. However, IF he was going to take out a townie and play WIFOM games, then I would expect him to do that. Instead, you pounce on him, and he pretty quickly looks through your filter and finds that quote about dumb hammers. If he were scum wanting to WIFOM, I would expect him to WIFOM. Instead, he seems to have gone to look at the filter of his attacker, and bring up something specific to you where you said you weren't concerned about dumb hammers. i.e. he's concerned with your attack on him, rather than WIFOMing the scumminess of his hammer. What would you consider optimal scum play in Z-Bo's situation?
Pre-hammer or post?
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Ninjaed.
Optimum play. To me optimum play would be the thing that makes you seem most townie, and so it would be pretty close to what Z-Bo did, lol. Going to the accuser's filter, remembering some inconsistency between a previous post and the current stance, bringing it up. Then...probably either continuing to push that, to undermine the guy who is accusing me, or possibly get a scumbuddy to step in and help out (I'm not scum bee tee dubs).
What I'd EXPECT from scum wouldn't be the most super optimal play though. I'd expect the WIFOM, or this argument that I'm bringing up, or something else.
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I can see what you're getting at.
I wouldn't expect optimal play because...I don't think I SHOULD expect optimal play. If all scum played optimally always, town probably gets crushed again and again. I assume most scum don't play optimally.
Moreover, I'm not sure that I get the contradiction between "Z-Bo isn't scum because hammering there was suboptimal" and "Z-Bo doing the super optimal scum play afterwards" indicating town Z-Bo. If he's a mastermind scum player, I would expect the vote/hammer to go differently. I wouldn't expect suboptimal hammer to be immediately followed by optimal response?
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On October 23 2012 09:59 marvellosity wrote:
Aren't you saying you don't think Z-Bo is scum because the way he hammered was suboptimal?
I don't think he's scum because the hammer seems like suboptimal play.
Then his response feels very townie/the optimal play for scum.
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On October 23 2012 10:00 marvellosity wrote:
I'm confusing myself now.
Ya. I get what you're grok-ing at, but I don't think it makes any sense.
If both the vote AND hammer were suboptimal or optimal, then I could think Z-BosoN was scum or scum mastermind. If there's a mix, then I find it more likely the townie response is real, and not the result of scum mastermind Z-BosoN, or else I would expect different play concerning the vote/hammer.
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On October 23 2012 11:05 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2012 11:01 Keirathi wrote:On October 23 2012 10:59 marvellosity wrote:
when have you ever known me to apologise? When have you ever been so wrong before (assuming you are town. which i'm not totally convinced of, ofc)? Certainly not in any game that I've played with you. I've literally never seen you make such a weak case, so if you believe that strongly in it, I'll expect that apology after I flip town. I think austin actually takes great delight in his post that he's used across multiple games about my wrong reads. I do find it interesting though that you characterise any case against you, by anyone really, as weak, lazy, *insert word here*. If you can show me you're town, I'll reconsider my read. Hell, I even gave Palmar in Rock Band a chance. This hammer shit is NOT it.
Hey now. That post sort of ish caught scum 
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iamperfection,
Apart from the whole "what scumbuddy would allow this" train of thought, what are your thoughts on drazak? Do you still stick with "said some things too odd/dumb to be scum"?
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On October 24 2012 01:08 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 00:56 austinmcc wrote:
iamperfection,
Apart from the whole "what scumbuddy would allow this" train of thought, what are your thoughts on drazak? Do you still stick with "said some things too odd/dumb to be scum"? obviously i looked through his filter and its awful but his latest actions just straighten my too stupid theory. Maybe that's not textbook scum hunting but i don't particularly care I'm pretty sure I'm right. drazak looks to me like he is a lost useless townie.
Okay, just checking on that.
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Tee hee. Kind of weird that a couple people have popped up with recent thoughts that marv might be scum. By process of elimination I was kind of coming down to drazak/marv with outside chances on iamp/hapa/keir.
One reason I asked iamp about the whole "scum teammate wouldn't let drazak say this stuff" is that it's a reason to like a drazak/marv scumteam. Marv wasn't around early to stop drazak, drazak has since posted little and mostly clammed up.
I can't find a chunk of time to write out full thoughts until a little later though.
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On October 24 2012 02:43 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On October 24 2012 02:41 austinmcc wrote:
Tee hee. Kind of weird that a couple people have popped up with recent thoughts that marv might be scum. By process of elimination I was kind of coming down to drazak/marv with outside chances on iamp/hapa/keir.
One reason I asked iamp about the whole "scum teammate wouldn't let drazak say this stuff" is that it's a reason to like a drazak/marv scumteam. Marv wasn't around early to stop drazak, drazak has since posted little and mostly clammed up.
I can't find a chunk of time to write out full thoughts until a little later though. this might be the stupidest thing i ever read. anyways, worktime finished.
That's not even the stupidest thing you've read in my filters.
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I have an hour and a half of mild focus on this game, then have to go and won't be around.
A lot of what I end up making reads on this game, so far, is process of elimination.
I don't think Z-BosoN is scum. Both because of the hammer/comments (Which I wish hadn't happened, I was really hoping Drazak would come back, respond, and then was thinking about pushing him hard based on his responses), and because...I dunno. I actually find Z-BosoN townie this game. I was all ready to jump on the wagon when he first came up as a legit candidate, and then after reading through his filter myself I didn't want to lynch him.
I don't think DP is scum. Active, making cases, that role question early, blah blah blah.
I don't think iamperfection is scum, based on that VERY quick vote on DP early D1. I've seen scum iamperfection throw early votes out, so that worries me a little (Aperture he had that insta-vote on Ghost for something small, just like with the vote on DP this game), BUT everything after that vote is different. He hasn't fully been lurking, he's been making some good comments, and so I'm townie on him, but with a weaker read than on Z-BosoN/DP. Don't take this read for gospel, and I need to look at this "scummy on x but voting y" stuff, because that's usually something that I think is a big scum tell. I'm not sure I've had a fantastic track record using it to make reads off of though, really unsure there.
Hapa fought with Z-BosoN a bunch yesterday. Mildly townie on him for that I think? I forget why on this one and I don't have my notes with me at work.
That leaves me keirathi, marv, drazak.
Keirathi I don't have a strong read on this game yet. He's another player, like Z-BosoN, that I fully expected to find scummy when reading through him. Yet I don't, I end up super wishy-washy and could go either way.
Drazak and Marv in next post, along with a couple thoughts on setup (Can't resist).
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I don't support/like/whatever this "Drazak has been mislynched before for looking scummy, therefore we shouldn't lynch him for looking scummy" argument. We can't fully determine his alignment right now. Based on how this game has played out during a long D1 and now N1, we're not GOING to be able to fully determine his alignment, because he's not posting much at all.
He's going to come up every day. He's going to be a mislynch candidate, sure, but best to get him out of the way before LYLO, and he's also a scum candidate. You guys may not have as many town reads as I do, but we're in a very small game. If you've got 2-3 town reads and know you're town, you've seriously narrowed down the options for possible scum. Things are narrow enough in my mind that "doesn't seem townie" + "not many options" + the stuff below = probably scum Drazak.
Here's why I'm concerned about Drazak mainly. He was relatively active in the beginning. Since then, he's clammed up significantly. I was hoping he'd start posting more, especially if people weren't jumping all over him, because yeah, it's difficult to get a read on him right now. But the part of his filter that keeps sticking out to me are things like:On October 23 2012 04:50 drazak wrote:
Not to defend hapa too much, but I know when I've read things, I think different things whehter or not I'm hungry, or if other things are going on in my life, maybe he reconsidered after reading something again. On October 23 2012 05:32 drazak wrote:Show nested quote +On October 23 2012 05:27 Hapahauli wrote:On October 23 2012 05:27 iamperfection wrote:
Posting from phone dont lynch z-bos wait untll I get home please. So you don't find him scummy then? Do tell. I don't think he doesn't find him scummy, he just doesn't want the hammer while he's afk, might have someone else he finds scummier.
those read very scummy to me because of statements in recent games. I can't NOT look at those and see:
On October 01 2012 17:40 Node wrote:
I don't think Shady Sands is scum -- at least, not given what we've seen so far. His "trolling" antics were silly, but they weren't scummy. If he were scum, I don't think he would've dropped the trolling pretext so quickly, and I certainly don't think he would be willing to reappear and start pushing targets.
On September 28 2012 05:29 Sinensis wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2012 04:46 phagga wrote:
Sinensis, while you are here, I would like to know your stance on Ottoxlol. I think Ottoxlol believes he's being unfairly voted for. I'm null on him. I think the worst thing he's done is instead of formulating a proper defense (against something that really didn't need defending against), he tried to shift the blame onto others...BUT he wasn't trying to shift the blame onto 1 or 2 other people, he was trying to shift the blame back onto everyone. That's why I think he just believes he's being treated unfairly and is just lashing out at everyone else. This doesn't strike me as scummy so much as just bad town play. Aside from that all he's done is be critical of SnB's play. Which I understand because SnB has been posting weird stuff this game. First there was the random lynch suggestion. He posted this too: Show nested quote +On September 27 2012 05:22 strongandbig wrote:
what about vt's fakeclaiming boxer
lets all claim boxer I've said a lot already about why VTs shouldn't be fake claiming. Was SnB fishing for people to agree with him or is he suggesting something that benefits mafia on purpose? ANYWAY I just think Ottoxlol is understandably concerned with SnB's play, and I think in the future Ottoxlol should start making proper defenses instead of blaming everyone else.
To me, defending people out of nowhere for odd reasons - Node defending Shady for things he hadn't done, Sinensis saying things like "I think Ottoxlol believes he's being unfairly voted for" stick out. Townies read posts, townies make reads, townies justify their reads with posts. Scum knows alignments, scum sometimes justify reads out of nowhere with...non-post stuff? They're trying to give a read but it's clear that they're not getting it from the same place a town player would be.
Drazak's comments feel like that. Hapa made a comment about leaving to eat, and Drazak partially defends him by saying that he thinks differently whether he's hungry or full. It's like...a very odd reason to justify what someone was poking at hapa about. It's not intra-thread, it's this weird external defense. The bit on Z-BosoN is...not as good, that comment isn't as out of place, but again it's like...Drazak explaining something based on stuff that wasn't in thread.
Just those two posts are enough to make me scummy on Drazak, enough to lynch because there are so few other options. It's also just very simple. I've had better luck with simple reads (Quick readthrough of GSL Open 2 N1 before dying, quick readthrough of Liquid City D1 after being absent (although LC not as much because I went crazy the next day)) than I have with overly complex ones. So I'm going to go with my gut and say that the simple weird statements and outside-the-game comments make him scum.
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EPT
