Newbie Mini Mafia XXIX - Page 8

On October 29 2012 13:28 Rad wrote:
I'm curious, does he have any meta examples where he's scum and doing the same thing (or something different)?

On October 29 2012 13:28 Djodref wrote:
@ Rad

First of all, I would like to say that I'm a Vanilla Townie so I have nothing to claim to save my ass. Believe me or not, but I'm no SK and I'm no mafia. But it's not relevant for the subject I have to discuss.

Considering that 2 blues are already dead and that you have no more bullets, I'm pretty sure that there is only VTs or equivalent right now. We cannot expect any save or vigilante kill.

Let's assume that we have an confirmed SK and I think that I was close to be a confirmed SK in dandel's eyes.

If town lynches the SK, you end up for sure at 4vs3 on D3. It is the worst lylo situation ever. You need basically to have a confirmed mafia player to expect survive the day, and then you have 2 more lylo at D4 (3vs2) and at D5 (2vs1). Given our current situation (town full of lurkers and newbies), I don't imagine us getting our way out a 4vs3 lylo.


If town decides not to lynch the SK, it is possible that we end up in a 3vs3vs1 situation at D3 but it is neither is the interest or town nor in the interest of the SK. We have much more opportunities to get rid of the scum this way (lynch or night kill by the SK).

Now, if we compare 4vs3 or 3vs3vs1, I think that the situations are equally bad. The SK has to team up with the town anyway at this point or it is game over for him. I don't know what would happen if we get out a 3vs3vs1 situation because I don't know what the SK would do.

Lynching the SK is at best sub-optimal play from town but I tend to think that it is anti-town.
And I cannot add enough how it fits a mafia agenda because they are sure to get to lylo instead of risking to lose one of their members.

On October 28 2012 09:29 Djodref wrote:
I think sylver has been killed for this post



I would say mafia was trying to snipe a blue and managed to do it.

Regarding Kush death, I would say vig or SK. Both makes sense.
But jailkeeper + vig + detective seems imba so I think we have a SK.

On August 25 2012 09:07 Dandel Ion wrote:
@Lvdr:
@Shady:
It really seems to me like you are carrying over an existing argument/exchange from another ongoing mafia game.

I guess it's pretty hard to do (and coincidentially the reason I won't sign up for multiple games, ever), but please try to seperate this game from the other one.

On August 26 2012 03:52 Dandel Ion wrote:
To start things off, responding to lvdr's case: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361579&currentpage=15#285

This is a flat out lie.
I have played a SINGLE game of mafia so far. (not counting the half-day that got restarted)
lvdr, shady and mkfuba have all played more games, thrawn just as many.

I didn't really push anyone but you yet, since all the "cases" so far were pretty much just screaming "bad newbie" to me, instead of "scum". Then there was you VS Shady, which I consider to have not much to do with this game.

Well, since that is the extent of your case, I consider it adressed.


Since you all seem to want my reads, here we go. (thoughts on other people coming after this, I'm getting pretty annoyed by the whole OMGOMG I'M WAITING FOR HIS POST, so I just decided to split it up.)
WeeTee: The extent of his first ~10 posts was either 1) insulting people, 2) not contributing or 3) both.

His last post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361579&currentpage=14#266) reads to me like he's just trying to secure a lynch on somebody else, no matter who it is

In an earlier post, he FoS'd Alsn for going for the "easy lynch". Behold, just a little later he is doing the SAME thing, to the SAME person.
Even though he soft-defended him earlier.
The only other thing he has done so far is argue with thrawn.

He's not contributing and contradicting his own words.

Thus, Weetee is my strongest scum read at the moment

On October 29 2012 13:45 Djodref wrote:
@ debears

I did not say he was not right about the possibility of an SK and I can even understand that he thought I was SK.

First point: I'm saying that it is easier for mafia to suspect someone of being SK rather than being scum.
Second and main point: it is anti-town and pro-mafia to push a lynch on a SK in this situation.

On October 29 2012 13:55 Djodref wrote:
@ Cheese

Yeah, I agree, it's not very relevant but it should bother you a little. I was just trying to explain why dandel is wrong when he says that Alsn's case is based on WIFOM.

By the way, did you find some mafia players ? At the exception of me of course

On October 28 2012 22:31 Alsn wrote:
Ok, I'm going to preface this by some WIFOM, although I think it's merited in this case.

Looking at the situation right now, the only one at risk of lynching seems to be Djodref. More importantly, he seems to be completely alone in his plight. I think he's scummy, but this fact alone leads me to believe that one of the following three options must be true:

• Djod is not mafia and all of us suspecting him are all town.
  
• Djod is not mafia and some of the people suspecting him are scum.
  
• Djod is mafia and no scum is defending him, in fact, no one has defended him for the entire length of the game.
  

Looking at these scenarios, and I'm convinced they're the only ones possible, I find the last one to be extremely unlikely. While myself and others have at times at least questioned whether or not Djod was all that super scummy, no one that I know has ever diverted a hypothetical Djod lynch unless it was done very subtly. In fact, the only argument that I feel can be made that he is scum and other scum has diverted attention away from him is the lynches against Inig and da0ud. Kush(and admittedly to a lesser extent myself) were responsible for the latter, while the lynch against Inig was Djod himself in tandem with debears(and possibly someone else, I don't remember, please correct me here if I'm wrong). Lastly, Djod actually switched his vote from Inig to da0ud and was the last one to do so IIRC. To me, scum "securing" a lynch on a townie makes no sense whatsoever. The only ones at risk of actually vote switching near a lynch are actual scum, so protecting themselves against a switch is meaningless.

That to me leaves the first two options and in both of them Djod is not scum. Sure, he could be SK and his actions don't really dispute that but to be honest, I would rather have a possible SK(and I'm not convinced he is) left alone and actually try and lynch mafia. Mostly because an SK isn't that worrisome if we still have a pretty good town vs scum majority.

For that reason, I looked at the possibilities left. Either scum is keeping really quiet and all of us accusing Djod are town, or scum are in fact trying to get Djod lynched. I find the latter more likely, although unfortunately I don't really have a good explanation for why I think that is, it's basically just a hunch, although not an insignificant one.

On October 29 2012 14:10 Djodref wrote:


Well, this would have been a better reason for dandel to go after Inig rather than to vote me for being the SK.

On October 29 2012 14:16 Djodref wrote:


@ debears

You have posted a second case about me so I think I became your top scumread at that point.

On October 29 2012 21:56 Alsn wrote:
I'm awake. I'd just like to state that if you look at my post carefully, the WIFOM is not with regards to Dandel. It just contains my reasons for not entirely condemning Djo just yet.

In my opinion my case against Dandel stands entirely on its own. That being said, debears did indeed point out some interesting points with regards to Dandel's meta which I need to consider.

To be honest, I'm getting the distinct feeling that even IF Djod is scum, his scum buddies almost has to be roco + nackh, or one of them and one of the players that has been playing "safe", although who that would be I have no idea.

Lastly, while I think we can't discount the possibility that Djod is SK and that both him and scum/Rad shot the same target, I find it extremely unlikely. I have no idea why an SK would shoot either kush or sylver.

I think I need to consider just what our chances would be if I'm to go along with a Djod lynch over Dandel. I'm almost at the point where I'm starting to get worried that both of them will flip green - however unlikely that is - and scum has been fooling us all along. Although if that is indeed the case, I don't think we stand much of a chance to be honest.

I'll get back with some non-ramblings soonish, I really just wanted to point out that you can't just look at my case against Dandel and dismiss it just because I'm WIFOMing wrt Djod.

On October 26 2012 12:18 debears wrote:
@Djo

Do you believe that Inig fits the category of lurker? His filter is less than a page.



Djo, why would Alsn be able to come up with something consistent if he thought you were scum? This sounds like scum with a guilty conscience. Scum know they are guilty. Their posts are made with the intention to mislead town, meaning that they know that traces of their deception are in their own posts.

If you were townie, you would feel that your filter is not filled with scummy things, since you would be honest and sincere. This post definitely does not give that read of honesty.