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Aperture Mafia 2: Portal Edition - Page 9

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 01:59 GMT
#1021
On October 07 2012 10:48 Keirathi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2012 09:58 Drazerk wrote:
Sure Kei and then you lose because S+B was scum

If S&B is scum at this point, I'll fucking eat my hat. And post pictures of it.


Hmm, we can have a way of proving if he's scum I think

To S&B:

Hmm, I had an interesting thought: What if right before the deadline, you claim who you are targeting?

Because the paranoid thought of you being scum has crossed my head after what Keirathi said (that as scum you'd be convinced P-Body was town and would vouch for you), so I just want to make sure.

I'm proposing this for this reason:
If you are scum telling lies....you still don't know what the other scumteam will do. If you are BS the RS have factional KP, if you are RS you don't know if BS will use a KP that night or not. If you claim you save someone, and that person dies, you are certainly lying and are scum. If you are scum and didn't claim right before the deadline, after that person dies you can always claim you saved another one.

May work, may not work, but I don't see the harm in doing it.
Another way of doing this is having Keirathi claim who he's targeting right before the deadline. Same principle applies, if he claims he targeted someone and that player dies, then S&B was lying and didn't actually save that guy.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:07 GMT
#1023
You think there are 3 scum from each faction? Any evidence towards that?
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:11 GMT
#1027
Yes because it's the greatest assumption you have there and everything falls apart if you take it away (except thinking Drazerk is town maybe)

Liar Game also had 12 townies. 12-3-3.
You are suggesting it's 6-3-3 in this game.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:16 GMT
#1030
I'd propose a role name massclaim to try and make sense of the Cave Johnson thing....but meh I'm not sure if it'd do any good (as far as I know, only the player list is important for scum/town roles, not role names).

If other people agree I can claim mine first. We can see irregularities in fake-claims that way
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:17 GMT
#1031
On October 07 2012 11:13 Keirathi wrote:
@gonzaw:

That plan literally makes 0 sense whatsoever.

IF he is scum (god, how many times do I have to give reasons that he's not? maybe I should just get flipped...), then of course he's going to tell you he's targetting X, while in reality he's shooting Y. The chance of overlap is pretty small, especially considering we've only been having 1 KP each night. Your chance of catching him as scum with that plan is remarkably tiny.

And, assuming he's town (because he is town), what if there *IS* overlap and 2 KP go through to the person he targetted and therefor dies? You just "confirmed" scum on a townie (ironically at the same % chance of having caught him as scum if he is scum).


If he's scum, he says he's targeting X but shoots Y, and the other scum shoots X....he's fucked.
If there is overlap and 2 KP go through and he dies...he flips town...so what's the problem?
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 02:27 GMT
#1033
I know the probabilities make it seem like it won't work (if he's scum). But if it doesn't hinder town in any way I don't see why we can't do it, it's just claiming a target right before the deadline instead of doing it the next day, you are going to do it anyways (well...he didn't claim his target today for some reason).

It's not worth it having an endless argument about it though.

Keirathi: You still convinced Draz is scum? Even after his Cave Johnson claim (which apparently happened on D2) and all that shit I said.
If you don't like setup speculation fine, just answer "yes".
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 03:19 GMT
#1038
ghosty
You're probably right, and I don't care. I think that Gonzaw pushed his scum buddy Day 1 when he made a crappy vote, pulled his vote after it started gaining traction, then abandoned thread when it started to look like his scum buddy going down. It makes sense, it's not a bad move to make as scum.


Refer to these please:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=40#784
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=40#800

Specially the "momentum" part. Am I lying or not about that? Please read that part of the thread (it's less than 1 page anyways) and tell me if I'm wrong or not.

When you combine that with the fact that Gonzaw has spent most of the thread mudslinging and whining


This may be true at times, specially when I get frustrated, for instance about Jingle or about having wrong reads or not solid ones.

instead of scumhunting


Now this is baseless conjecture.
Prove I didn't scumhunt this game.

, and the fact that he's frequently and repeated suggested and pushed massclaims when we really don't know anything about the game setup.


That's the point of having people claim: understand the setup. Although I don't remember pushing massclaims but rather claims from specific people, like S&B, P-body, Drazerk and you (and the role names).


On October 07 2012 11:30 ghost_403 wrote:
Oh, and there's that stuff with his new plan to tell scum who the medic is protecting right before the deadline. Yeah, that's a pro-town plan. If the medic targets town, scum can kill the confirmed town. If the medic targets the confirmed town, scum can have their way with whoever they think would look best dead. Great plan there, buddy.


Do you know what "right before deadline" means?


Ghost...there's something you haven't answered yet:

On October 02 2012 05:36 ghost_403 wrote:
Something's off about austin's play this game. I dunno what. I can't put my finger on it, and I have no idea why. I think I'm going to read a few of his previous games.

I'm still happy trying to lynch Keirathi today. After his initial case on Mattchew, he's done more or less no analysis this game. If looking through austin's previous games doesn't yield anything interesting, I might spend a bit more time staring at Keirathi's filter and write up my thoughts on it.

IMP doesn't read like scum to me at a moment. I didn't see anything substantial in the cases presented in the thread to change my mind on that at the moment.


Okay, you mention IMP doesn't read like scum to you....but what about what IMP did? You know, voting you? Why did you ignore it nor acknowledged it nor defended yourself?

Also this:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=42#839

What was the purpose of this post? Why did you come out of hiding to just accuse that post of mine?
Not only that....why did you do it so poorly? Like really, it seems obvious. Here I'll spoiler it to you since I'm sure you'll ask why it's "poor":

+ Show Spoiler +
There are reasons why unclaimed shots might have been from someone in the town. For example, Lord Kanti's KP from Aperture Mafia. Based on the flips that have already occured this game, I don't think that it's irrational to assume that a role with KP doesn't have some other stuff associated with it. The fact that Draz didn't immediately claim his shot doesn't imply that he's scum.


Drazerk claimed that KP and nobody cc'ed, so it at least proves Drazerk shot him


Let's go about it logically:

P1)S&B got shot only once
P2)Drazerk claimed he shot S&B
P3)Nobody counterclaimed Drazerk
P4)If someone claims an unique action, and another townie did that action, then that townie cc's the original claimer.
P5)If someone claims an unique action, and no townie cc's him, then that player either did that unique action or he's scum and a scumbuddy of his did it.
P6)If a scumbuddy of yours shoots someone, it still counts as if you shot him (since you are part of that scum team).

T1)Because of (P1), shooting S&B is an unique action
T2)Because of (T1) and (P4): If someone claims he shot S&B, and another townie did so, that townie cc's the guy that claims he shot S&B
T3)Because of (T2) and (P2): If another townie shot S&B, that townie cc's Drazerk
T4)Because of (T3) and (P4): No townie shot S&B
T5)Because of (T1),(P2),(T4) and (P5): Drazerk either shot S&B or is scum and his scumbuddy did it
T)Because of (T5) and (P6): Drazerk shot S&B

This doesn't take into account maybe someone from another faction shooting S&B and Drazerk claiming the shot himself and the other faction scum not claiming; but that's unlikely as well...and we didn't know there was a 2nd scum faction at that time.

Also you may doubt (P1) but I can prove it to you:

(P0)S&B is town
(P'1)S&B got shot
(P'2)If someone is town and is shot, he claims all the times he's shot and all the details
(P'3)If S&B gets shot more than once he dies (optional)
(P'4)S&B was alive on D2
(P'5)S&B claimed he got shot once

(T'1)Because of (P0) and (P'1): S&B claimed all the times he's shot and all the details
(T'2)Because of (T'1) and (P'5): S&B got shot once.

(T'3)Because of (P'3) and (P'4): S&B didn't get shot more than once
(T'4)Because of (T'3) and (P'1): S&B got shot once

Damn syllogisms are fun

Also, your conclusion there is kind of irrelevant. My conclusion was that Drazerk shot S&B
You never mention that that conclusion is wrong, you just spout things like "unaccounted KP can be made from town" (I'll give it to you that that you may be right about that part of my post, but it was just a transitional thought I had) and "The fact that Draz didn't immediately claim his shot doesn't imply that he's scum." which again is irrelevant to the conclusion I made. I don't ever mention at all in that post that Draz is scum for not claiming his shot beforehand (that's something I pressure him about in other posts, previous ones I think).


In the event of a busdriver, 98% of the time, the person performing the action isn't notified of a bussing. Therefore, Draz would not know that he had bussed, and wouldn't have known to claim that he shot S+B


No townie claimed the shot, it's natural that if this happened he would have figured out he was bussed. After nobody claims the shot nor the bus after he claims, he's sure he was the one that shot him.

Also again, if he claims he shot S&B, and a town bus driver drove S&B and Draz' original target, the town driver would have known something is fishy since Draz' original target didn't claim the shot. Unless he drove Mementos. Even then he would know something is weird since it means someone shot Mementos. Even then the bus driver doesn't even matter since it means 1 guy shot S&B and 1 guy shot mementos.

And why on earth are you implying that there's a town busdriver to begin with? Why do you keep fishing for blues?


I'm not implying there's a town busdriver I'm only taking into account the possibility. Also that's not fishing for blues.

As town, you should know better than to spout off stuff like this. You would have taken a step back and realized that this post doesn't accomplish anything other than create more chaos while people discuss why you are completely wrong. Town gonzaw is better than this.


I'm logically proving Drazerk did shot S&B so people stop speculating about Drazerk not shooting him (Keirathi did at one point say that he didn't like speculating since maybe some weird thing happened or some shit).

That's the opposite of chaos cupcake. I'm giving people real, unaltered and trusty information.

Town gonzaw is better than this.


Now this is where I got weirded out. Everybody knows I do this as town; any townie that already played with me would know. You played with me several times when I was town, at least I remember the original Aperture (I think you were there).
Even if you don't know what I do as town, you can't assume that you do and be wrong about it. Specially when my post has a purpose (prove/decide what happened N1 with Drazerk/S&B)

What was the purpose of that post of yours ghost?



gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:00 GMT
#1040
@S&B and Matt: thoughts on shit please (ghost, Drazerk's claim, me, other shit).
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:04 GMT
#1041
On October 07 2012 12:59 austinmcc wrote:
Caught up on the last couple pages.

Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.

Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi.


He shot S&B, so he has to have KP (either town vig KP, or scum KP).

He doesn't care that much to have a red DT check on any of them. If he had he would have at least just FoSed the guy he had a red check on, not just say "kill both of them eventually".
I think that's unlikely.


austin, what would you do if Drazerk flips town? Who would you look at?
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:09 GMT
#1042
Meh scratch that question, it's kind of loaded.

My main point is: How will you guys react if Drazerk is town? There seems to be no motivation to do anything at all today and everybody just assumes Drazerk will flip scum and that will make this day "worth it". But just like some people on D2, if the flip is town the day is wasted (i.e people come once in the whole day, park their vote and leave, that kind of thing).

Does anybody have links to all games where Drazerk was scum, and how he acted in LYLO or before getting lynched in those games?
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:44 GMT
#1045
@Keirathi: My point is that Drazerk shot someone, and that shot landed on S&B (whether he shot S&B directly or not doesn't matter).

Well....I take it like this:
1-If S&B is shot directly: he loses one life
2-If S&B's target is shot directly: S&B loses one life, target doesn't lose life
3-If your target is shot directly: S&B loses one life, target doesn't lose life

I take it they all accumulate. If 1 guy shoots S&B, another shoots your target, and another shoots S&B's target, I take it all 3 KP go on him. Unless there's a RNG procedure to decide who gets shot in the case the combined KP exceeds S&B's lives.

Of course S&B would have more than 1 life, maybe even 3 (although I guess 2 is more likely).

I do find strange how in 2 nights there's only 1 accounted shot between you+your target+S&B+S&B's target.
I would have assumed S&B would be riddled with bullets right now


+ Show Spoiler [Wild Conjecture] +

Now onto wild conjecture that means absolutely nothing and no one should even pay any attention to:

What about this version of events from night 1?

Drazerk shot S&B. A bus driver (I still maintain there is one; "Portal Edition" just screams bus driver to me) switched Mementoss and S&B, presumably to get S&B killed rather than Mementoss who they thought was town. So Drazerk killed Mementoss via the bus, and someone else shot one of mine or S&B's targets (to trigger the hit notification). Then Drazerk gets his panties all in a bunch about S&B living when it had absolutely nothing to do with S&B being scum.

Obviously has no bearing whatsoever on Drazerk's alignment, because it could play out the same either way


If I recall S&B targeted Hiro (don't remember who you targeted). Hiro seems unlikely to be RS (although could be BS), so it's possible RS would target him.

You think maybe Chell is the busdriver with the Portal Gun?
If this happened that night:
-Chell targeted S&B and Mementos
-Drazerk shot S&B
-RS shot Hiro
-S&B targeted Hiro
-BS didn't do anything because their powers suck

then it's possible...
...it's also possible Drazerk shot S&B directly, which seems more likely.

And it also means a bus driver (townie in this case it seems) kept his mouth shut while this whole misunderstanding took place. I mean, knowing scum shot Hiro instead of Mementos is a big deal. Even after claiming a town bus driver is useful since scum don't know what he will do and can still fuck them up.
I assume that's not the case since he would have claimed.

Night actions confuse the hell out of me this game. I don't understand them at all.
.

On October 07 2012 13:23 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:
On October 07 2012 12:59 austinmcc wrote:
Caught up on the last couple pages.

Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.

Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi.


He shot S&B, so he has to have KP (either town vig KP, or scum KP).

He said he shot snb. He claimed one-shot vig. He also said he made his role obvious.


I proved Drazerk shot S&B (check the spoiler of my response to ghost's case)

Or at least I like to think I did so it makes me feel awesome and shit

I could see you as a possible red AND possible black, laid out some possible reasons for that, and also iirc in Can't Believe you had incorrect reads and started to flip out about it, really pressure some folks and argue hard. Here, you've had incorrect reads and you seem to have ... gotten sulky about it? You've been saying you'll take a break, that you're not liking your play, and doing lots of speculative stuff with who could be on what scum team and connected to who. We DO need to discuss that stuff, but it just feels like your reaction to having some wrong reads is different this game than it was in Can't Believe, and it's bugging me.


Can't Believe was easy in retrospect. I had awful reads on D1/N1, but considering you and sciberbia's play until D2, and S&B upping his game, and Mattchew going scummy lurker, and all that shit (talismania disappearing off the face of the earth, etc), once I stopped and analyzed everybody's play it clicked and seemed obvious who was scum and who was not (I guess you are talking about my play from D2 onwards there).

I just don't have that here. Maybe it's the multiple faction thing that's fucking my reads (I suck at multiple faction reads...just read Liar Game again, I failed hard there), and I can really see most of you as scum or town, because in both cases you guys can legitimately scumhunt (for the other scum team) and post legit reasonings/thought processes/etc, which is what I'm most used to looking for and what I'm "good" at (I suck at analyzing plays from other perspectives, iGrok's mini game is proof of that)

I take that as me playing badly (kind of like in iGrok's mini in a way), and that seriously bums me out.


Right now I'm just kind of resigned to get discussion going and not letting the thread die (as well as getting some reactions from you guys as well....but that doesn't seem too promising as of now), and just post any thoughts I have and explain myself so I don't get misslynched (or get closed to getting mislynched like in Can't Believe) ; but I doubt you'll see me making a giant case on someone and leading a lynch any time soon (at least not this D3).
I know I'm bound to change my mind many times and second guess myself. At least when it respects Hiro/ghost/Drazerk/Jingle and maybe you/Matt/S&B (I guess my town read on Keirathi is the only thing constant here >_>.....now see this biting me in the ass when in Post-Game it's revealed he was scum all along <_< )
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 04:47 GMT
#1046
I still don't get the Draz DT thing....he's made no insinuation at that. He even claimed his role (finally) and it doesn't seem like a DT at all (at all it's consistent with his "lemon KP" power).

Even if he flips DT...who did he check? Kei or S&B? I assume it was S&B on N1? Then again...what about S&B losing 1 life? If it was a scum shot then Drazerk claiming the scum shot for himself does not seem likely at all.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 05:04 GMT
#1049
Oh, Vig-Dt would make sense I guess then.

Okay, it seems Drazerk was town on Bastard 2 and scum on PTP3. I'll go and look at those games. There's something in particular that's worrying me about Drazerk this game and I want to see if he does that as town or scum.

The thing I'm worried about is him being so invested in the D2 lynch. He desperately wanted S&B lynched there, and stick around until the deadline and after it. If we assume Drazerk is the sole remaining mate from his scum team, why would he be so invested in the lynch if he knows someone other than him would get lynched?
Someone mentioned that he was playing for self-preservation...and well that doesn't really sound like self-preservation. It's either a townie concern for the lynch or an active scum agenda, not just "trying to survive".

He didn't seem that invested in the D1 lynch though, like at all (parked vote on austin and that's it). That contrast seems weird to me (one way or the other)
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 05:07 GMT
#1050
Wait I suck. I forgot Xfire mentioned ghost in this post as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174&currentpage=21#420

....lol

Oh, as for the whole ignoring the case against him part.
Maybe he just didn't feel threatened by it and would only respond to the case if it picked up momentum.
Why is he responding for ghost? Maybe ghost is his buddy after all?

Damn.
Let me finish the Drazerk thing first though
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 05:58 GMT
#1055
On October 07 2012 14:12 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 07 2012 14:04 gonzaw wrote:
The thing I'm worried about is him being so invested in the D2 lynch. He desperately wanted S&B lynched there, and stick around until the deadline and after it. If we assume Drazerk is the sole remaining mate from his scum team, why would he be so invested in the lynch if he knows someone other than him would get lynched?
Someone mentioned that he was playing for self-preservation...and well that doesn't really sound like self-preservation. It's either a townie concern for the lynch or an active scum agenda, not just "trying to survive".

He didn't seem that invested in the D1 lynch though, like at all (parked vote on austin and that's it). That contrast seems weird to me (one way or the other)
It's more than just that.

His D1 was not Drazerk-y. Then D2, poof! Lightning rods, push snb, fake grenades, etc. The D1 --> D2 swap is just entirely different play, let alone investment.


This is what I noticed too.

If he's red, wouldn't it be the other way round? Like act Drazerk-y while his teammate is still alive and when his teammate dies lurk, park your vote on someone unrelated (like when he did on you) and disappear and just spout bullshit every once and then?

Justifying a red Drazerk going Drazerk-y because he really wanted to kill S&B because "S&B had protection and he'd have wanted to kill him as scum and so tried all he could to do so"....meh I don't really buy it. It's possible though...but it doesn't really explain Drazerk's activity regarding the lightning rod thingy, and just being active there all the time.

I would have thought a red Drazerk would have at least mentioned IAM in some way. In PTP3 he bussed almost all his teammates without giving 2 shits about it. Granted, if he's red and he only has 1 teammate it may change...but does Drazerk change his play like that?


Damn...I keep reading PTP3 and Bastard....and I get a feeling he's playing like Bastard more.

Like, in Bastard and here his posts have that "I don't really care, I'm just having fun" aura. In PTP3 they didn't.
Fuck it's hard to explain, since there aren't exact quotes that can explain that feeling.

For instance, I don't get that feeling from this post (PTP3):
On August 30 2012 02:59 Drazerk wrote:
Huh I never did give butterfree a flying attack...

Me and JH discussed almost every possible reason as to why the night actions during N2 was screwed with last night the short answer is we can't know until someone steps forward or we kill the person who screwed with it.

As for scum KP the easy answer could be they aren't killing anyone?

Be it via roleblock / medic protects / veteran abilities we simply don't know but that seems like the more logical solution rather than Hiro's solution which means Mattchew is 100% scum. I also threw around the idea the only KP scum have is the KP the players started with, that still might be the case for all we know.


This post doesn't seem like Drazerk made it. He's asking serious questions and suggesting things about KP and stuff. At other points he has similar posts.
I don't see him making posts like this in this game.

He's fairly active in both, posts one-liners and shit and acts "similarly" (in those aspects at least), so that's hard to figure out.

Maybe I'm just being biased thinking that this will be a misslynch and trying to subconsciously find him townie by looking at his previous games. But hell I dunno.

Here are the filters:
Bastard 2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=343892&user=107918
PTP3: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359357&user=107918

I need some input on this if someone would like to read both filters. If you read both games and see how/when Drazerk responds better (just CTRL+F "Drazerk" and advance each page).

The wanting to kill S&B+Kei is one of those things that confuses me the most. It almost looks like a scum tunneling technique used to justify all of your posts (just post something related to killing those guys and that's it).
If he's scum, the claiming of his shot, the confirmation of his shot, the claiming-breadcrumb of his rolename but refusal to claim it outright, and the fact that his ability is too "simple" confuse me if he was scum (like why the hell would he do those?).
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 06:00 GMT
#1056
Also, any games where Hiro has been scum? ghost too for that matter.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 06:02 GMT
#1057
Anyways my head hurts

I think not joining games with Drazerk in it would be wiser >_>
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 06:09 GMT
#1058
On October 07 2012 15:00 gonzaw wrote:
Also, any games where Hiro has been scum? ghost too for that matter.


Excuse my stupidity, forgot about "profiles" even though I have one myself.
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 06:20 GMT
#1060
I'm still voting Drazerk?

##Unvote: Drazerk

Yes, I'd like more participation regarding this. I don't plan on taking a "he's not contributing or doing anything!" or "he just wants to kill S&B!" as justification for voting him. He's Drazerk, we all know how he tends to play. If we don't want to misslynch him we needs some serious analysis over here (or rather if we want to be sure we won't misslynch him).


You still think I'm BS? Fine, we can discuss that too.
Although getting bombarded with "You are BS because of Crossfire bla bla bla" and "You are RS because you soft-bussed IAM bla bla bla" is getting tired.
Just pick one of them and stick with it goddammit!
gonzaw
Profile Joined December 2011
Uruguay4911 Posts
October 07 2012 06:24 GMT
#1061
EBWOP:
^ I mean that in general. I have like 3 people thinking I'm BS and other 3 people thinking I'm RS.
Defending myself against all accusations at the same time is tiring.
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