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On October 07 2012 12:59 austinmcc wrote:
Caught up on the last couple pages.
Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.
Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi.
He shot S&B, so he has to have KP (either town vig KP, or scum KP).
He doesn't care that much to have a red DT check on any of them. If he had he would have at least just FoSed the guy he had a red check on, not just say "kill both of them eventually".
I think that's unlikely.
austin, what would you do if Drazerk flips town? Who would you look at?
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Meh scratch that question, it's kind of loaded.
My main point is: How will you guys react if Drazerk is town? There seems to be no motivation to do anything at all today and everybody just assumes Drazerk will flip scum and that will make this day "worth it". But just like some people on D2, if the flip is town the day is wasted (i.e people come once in the whole day, park their vote and leave, that kind of thing).
Does anybody have links to all games where Drazerk was scum, and how he acted in LYLO or before getting lynched in those games?
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Sorry, I'm kind of busy so no big thoughts right now, but a comment @gonzaw:
First, we don't know for sure that S&B's role even protects himself if he is the target of a shot. I know I didn't target S&B night 1, so he didn't protect himself via our combined powers. So does he only protect the person he's targeting (and I'm targeting, by association), or does he protect himself, his target, and my target? That seems a little...OP, but I guess possible. We could use some clarification from him, if he has any.
Second, if we assume that S&B's protection applies to direct shots on himself as well, your conjecture still doesn't prove that Drazerk shot S&B, only that Drazerk shot either S&B, S&B's target, or my target.
Not that there is a huge difference in those two things, but when you add in the fact that there was a jail from mementoss and an actual medic protect from nisani on night 1 as well that we don't know anything about, it totally changes all the possibilities, IMO.
+ Show Spoiler +Now onto wild conjecture that means absolutely nothing and no one should even pay any attention to:
What about this version of events from night 1?
Drazerk shot S&B. A bus driver (I still maintain there is one; "Portal Edition" just screams bus driver to me) switched Mementoss and S&B, presumably to get S&B killed rather than Mementoss who they thought was town. So Drazerk killed Mementoss via the bus, and someone else shot one of mine or S&B's targets (to trigger the hit notification). Then Drazerk gets his panties all in a bunch about S&B living when it had absolutely nothing to do with S&B being scum.
Obviously has no bearing whatsoever on Drazerk's alignment, because it could play out the same either way.
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On October 07 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2012 12:59 austinmcc wrote:
Caught up on the last couple pages.
Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.
Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi. He shot S&B, so he has to have KP (either town vig KP, or scum KP). He doesn't care that much to have a red DT check on any of them. If he had he would have at least just FoSed the guy he had a red check on, not just say "kill both of them eventually". I think that's unlikely. austin, what would you do if Drazerk flips town? Who would you look at?
He said he shot snb. He claimed one-shot vig. He also said he made his role obvious.
I don't actually believe 1 and 2 more than 3 and the gut read of what he might be, considering he's the one making the claims.
I need to reread the last couple pages a time or two, but if Drazerk flips town then:
Assuming drazerk NOT dt, I don't want to worry about keirathi/snb tomorrow. Still of the mind that they're same alignment, and that claim would be a big risk to take, although IF they're scum taking a risk, it's paying off.
I really want to look hard at ghost. I like the connection stuff, SOMEONE is black scum with crossfire, and I don't like that ghost says he's not. That's dumb, but it's what you get this late at night - I want to look at this guy for maybe scum because he says he's not scum.
Need to look at you/mattchew/hiropro as well. I like the arguments for you guys LESS than I like the ones for ghost, but I could see either mattchew or hiropro kind of coasting as black scum off the iamperfection lynch. I could see you as a possible red AND possible black, laid out some possible reasons for that, and also iirc in Can't Believe you had incorrect reads and started to flip out about it, really pressure some folks and argue hard. Here, you've had incorrect reads and you seem to have ... gotten sulky about it? You've been saying you'll take a break, that you're not liking your play, and doing lots of speculative stuff with who could be on what scum team and connected to who. We DO need to discuss that stuff, but it just feels like your reaction to having some wrong reads is different this game than it was in Can't Believe, and it's bugging me.
Whether red or black, still don't see that one mattchew post coming from scumJH. He's in the boat with keirathi/snb tomorrow if draz not dt.
If draz dt, I seriously consider lynching keirathi or snb. Godfather dead. We could still have a framer out and about, but ... hmmm. I could see snb maybe being a frame target N1? Had a decent number of people suspicious of him based on the inactivity and snb vs. drazerk fighting. I'd have to think about that more, but depending on when possiblydtdrazerk got his checks and who they were on, I could follow one.
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@Keirathi: My point is that Drazerk shot someone, and that shot landed on S&B (whether he shot S&B directly or not doesn't matter).
Well....I take it like this:
1-If S&B is shot directly: he loses one life
2-If S&B's target is shot directly: S&B loses one life, target doesn't lose life
3-If your target is shot directly: S&B loses one life, target doesn't lose life
I take it they all accumulate. If 1 guy shoots S&B, another shoots your target, and another shoots S&B's target, I take it all 3 KP go on him. Unless there's a RNG procedure to decide who gets shot in the case the combined KP exceeds S&B's lives.
Of course S&B would have more than 1 life, maybe even 3 (although I guess 2 is more likely).
I do find strange how in 2 nights there's only 1 accounted shot between you+your target+S&B+S&B's target.
I would have assumed S&B would be riddled with bullets right now
+ Show Spoiler [Wild Conjecture] +Now onto wild conjecture that means absolutely nothing and no one should even pay any attention to:
What about this version of events from night 1?
Drazerk shot S&B. A bus driver (I still maintain there is one; "Portal Edition" just screams bus driver to me) switched Mementoss and S&B, presumably to get S&B killed rather than Mementoss who they thought was town. So Drazerk killed Mementoss via the bus, and someone else shot one of mine or S&B's targets (to trigger the hit notification). Then Drazerk gets his panties all in a bunch about S&B living when it had absolutely nothing to do with S&B being scum.
Obviously has no bearing whatsoever on Drazerk's alignment, because it could play out the same either way If I recall S&B targeted Hiro (don't remember who you targeted). Hiro seems unlikely to be RS (although could be BS), so it's possible RS would target him. You think maybe Chell is the busdriver with the Portal Gun? If this happened that night: -Chell targeted S&B and Mementos -Drazerk shot S&B -RS shot Hiro -S&B targeted Hiro -BS didn't do anything because their powers suck then it's possible... ...it's also possible Drazerk shot S&B directly, which seems more likely. And it also means a bus driver (townie in this case it seems) kept his mouth shut while this whole misunderstanding took place. I mean, knowing scum shot Hiro instead of Mementos is a big deal. Even after claiming a town bus driver is useful since scum don't know what he will do and can still fuck them up. I assume that's not the case since he would have claimed. Night actions confuse the hell out of me this game. I don't understand them at all. .
On October 07 2012 13:23 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2012 13:04 gonzaw wrote:On October 07 2012 12:59 austinmcc wrote:
Caught up on the last couple pages.
Drazerk, when you say you've made it obvious, everyone seems to be latching onto the Cave Johnson bit. And you claimed one-shot vig which I still don't believe.
Are you hinting at being a DT? Hearing you say you've been obvious about it makes me think you're claiming DT with a red check on snb or keirathi. He shot S&B, so he has to have KP (either town vig KP, or scum KP). He said he shot snb. He claimed one-shot vig. He also said he made his role obvious.
I proved Drazerk shot S&B (check the spoiler of my response to ghost's case)
Or at least I like to think I did so it makes me feel awesome and shit
I could see you as a possible red AND possible black, laid out some possible reasons for that, and also iirc in Can't Believe you had incorrect reads and started to flip out about it, really pressure some folks and argue hard. Here, you've had incorrect reads and you seem to have ... gotten sulky about it? You've been saying you'll take a break, that you're not liking your play, and doing lots of speculative stuff with who could be on what scum team and connected to who. We DO need to discuss that stuff, but it just feels like your reaction to having some wrong reads is different this game than it was in Can't Believe, and it's bugging me.
Can't Believe was easy in retrospect. I had awful reads on D1/N1, but considering you and sciberbia's play until D2, and S&B upping his game, and Mattchew going scummy lurker, and all that shit (talismania disappearing off the face of the earth, etc), once I stopped and analyzed everybody's play it clicked and seemed obvious who was scum and who was not (I guess you are talking about my play from D2 onwards there).
I just don't have that here. Maybe it's the multiple faction thing that's fucking my reads (I suck at multiple faction reads...just read Liar Game again, I failed hard there), and I can really see most of you as scum or town, because in both cases you guys can legitimately scumhunt (for the other scum team) and post legit reasonings/thought processes/etc, which is what I'm most used to looking for and what I'm "good" at (I suck at analyzing plays from other perspectives, iGrok's mini game is proof of that)
I take that as me playing badly (kind of like in iGrok's mini in a way), and that seriously bums me out.
Right now I'm just kind of resigned to get discussion going and not letting the thread die (as well as getting some reactions from you guys as well....but that doesn't seem too promising as of now), and just post any thoughts I have and explain myself so I don't get misslynched (or get closed to getting mislynched like in Can't Believe) ; but I doubt you'll see me making a giant case on someone and leading a lynch any time soon (at least not this D3).
I know I'm bound to change my mind many times and second guess myself. At least when it respects Hiro/ghost/Drazerk/Jingle and maybe you/Matt/S&B (I guess my town read on Keirathi is the only thing constant here >_>.....now see this biting me in the ass when in Post-Game it's revealed he was scum all along <_< )
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I still don't get the Draz DT thing....he's made no insinuation at that. He even claimed his role (finally) and it doesn't seem like a DT at all (at all it's consistent with his "lemon KP" power).
Even if he flips DT...who did he check? Kei or S&B? I assume it was S&B on N1? Then again...what about S&B losing 1 life? If it was a scum shot then Drazerk claiming the scum shot for himself does not seem likely at all.
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I think the point is that 1-shot vig is a pretty bland role compared to all of the other roles that have flipped or been disclosed.
We've had a godfather/JOAT, medicwatcher, a (arguably powerful and weak at the same time) conditional 5-shot day vig, and a dual-target bodyguard+roleblockimmunity pair.
Vig-DT would make more sense, consistency wise, than plain 'ol 1-shot vig just based on the roles we know. But there are a lot of roles that we don't know, and trying to guess what the host gave all 13 players is an extreme exercise in futility.
Also, it strikes me as odd that Drazerk is sticking to his Cave Johnson "claim", whenever the Lemon Grenade didn't even work.
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On October 07 2012 13:47 gonzaw wrote:
I still don't get the Draz DT thing....he's made no insinuation at that. He even claimed his role (finally) and it doesn't seem like a DT at all (at all it's consistent with his "lemon KP" power).
Even if he flips DT...who did he check? Kei or S&B? I assume it was S&B on N1? Then again...what about S&B losing 1 life? If it was a scum shot then Drazerk claiming the scum shot for himself does not seem likely at all.
I dunno, I trust him when he says he made his role obvious. That's just a comment that he's got no reason to lie about.
But I don't trust the obvious part being "i'm a one shot vigi and I shot snb."
Just a weird hunch that I picked up tonight when I read that post of his. I could be seeing things.
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Oh, Vig-Dt would make sense I guess then.
Okay, it seems Drazerk was town on Bastard 2 and scum on PTP3. I'll go and look at those games. There's something in particular that's worrying me about Drazerk this game and I want to see if he does that as town or scum.
The thing I'm worried about is him being so invested in the D2 lynch. He desperately wanted S&B lynched there, and stick around until the deadline and after it. If we assume Drazerk is the sole remaining mate from his scum team, why would he be so invested in the lynch if he knows someone other than him would get lynched?
Someone mentioned that he was playing for self-preservation...and well that doesn't really sound like self-preservation. It's either a townie concern for the lynch or an active scum agenda, not just "trying to survive".
He didn't seem that invested in the D1 lynch though, like at all (parked vote on austin and that's it). That contrast seems weird to me (one way or the other)
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Wait I suck. I forgot Xfire mentioned ghost in this post as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=21#420
....lol
Oh, as for the whole ignoring the case against him part.
Maybe he just didn't feel threatened by it and would only respond to the case if it picked up momentum. Why is he responding for ghost? Maybe ghost is his buddy after all?
Damn.
Let me finish the Drazerk thing first though
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Additionally,
your explanation includes a bit on a possible bus driver. Drazerk was rambling about a lightning rod. Glados had roleblock options that made you target yourself or repeat an action on an old target. keirathi apparently controls snb's target, no matter who snb tries to target? We've seen redirection flip. We've got claimed redirection elsewhere. Then we've got hypothetical redirection in a third category.
The entire drazerk shooting snb thing is speculative at this point. We don't know if Drazerk is a vig. If Drazerk is a vig, we don't KNOW he shot snb. If drazerk shot snb, we don't KNOW his shot connected. We also don't KNOW that snb took a shot.
I don't think snb is lying about taking a shot. But I'm less sure that Drazerk actually shot him or is even a vig. I'm 0% sure that Drazerk is a one-shot vig.
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On October 07 2012 14:04 gonzaw wrote:
The thing I'm worried about is him being so invested in the D2 lynch. He desperately wanted S&B lynched there, and stick around until the deadline and after it. If we assume Drazerk is the sole remaining mate from his scum team, why would he be so invested in the lynch if he knows someone other than him would get lynched?
Someone mentioned that he was playing for self-preservation...and well that doesn't really sound like self-preservation. It's either a townie concern for the lynch or an active scum agenda, not just "trying to survive".
He didn't seem that invested in the D1 lynch though, like at all (parked vote on austin and that's it). That contrast seems weird to me (one way or the other) It's more than just that.
His D1 was not Drazerk-y. Then D2, poof! Lightning rods, push snb, fake grenades, etc. The D1 --> D2 swap is just entirely different play, let alone investment.
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I called it self-preservation because S&B was pretty dead-set on getting Drazerk lynched, even though no one was paying S&B's reads much attention because they thought he was scum. And really, most other people had chalked Drazerk up to trolling and willing to ignore him. If he could get the one person constantly pushing him off of his back, then he could probably coast the rest of the game.
Add in the fact that, taken together, mine+S&B's roles make us virtually invincible at night if we just target each other until all of his unknown amount of BP vests are gone. If Drazerk is scum, and worried about S&B continually hounding him all game, it could make some sense to push S&B as hard as possible and try to get him lynched over Nisani.
*Note: I am not saying this is in fact how it happened. Just reasonable plausibility for why scum Drazerk could have wanted to make sure S&B was lynched over Nisani.
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On October 07 2012 14:10 austinmcc wrote:
keirathi apparently controls snb's target, no matter who snb tries to target?
Just for clarification: I don't control S&B's target at all.
Here's what happens:
S&B Targets X.
I target Y
Because S&B targetted X, I also target X.
Because I targeted Y, S&B also targets Y.
Therefore,
S&B targets X and Y
I also target X and Y.
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On October 07 2012 14:12 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2012 14:04 gonzaw wrote:
The thing I'm worried about is him being so invested in the D2 lynch. He desperately wanted S&B lynched there, and stick around until the deadline and after it. If we assume Drazerk is the sole remaining mate from his scum team, why would he be so invested in the lynch if he knows someone other than him would get lynched?
Someone mentioned that he was playing for self-preservation...and well that doesn't really sound like self-preservation. It's either a townie concern for the lynch or an active scum agenda, not just "trying to survive".
He didn't seem that invested in the D1 lynch though, like at all (parked vote on austin and that's it). That contrast seems weird to me (one way or the other) It's more than just that. His D1 was not Drazerk-y. Then D2, poof! Lightning rods, push snb, fake grenades, etc. The D1 --> D2 swap is just entirely different play, let alone investment.
This is what I noticed too.
If he's red, wouldn't it be the other way round? Like act Drazerk-y while his teammate is still alive and when his teammate dies lurk, park your vote on someone unrelated (like when he did on you) and disappear and just spout bullshit every once and then?
Justifying a red Drazerk going Drazerk-y because he really wanted to kill S&B because "S&B had protection and he'd have wanted to kill him as scum and so tried all he could to do so"....meh I don't really buy it. It's possible though...but it doesn't really explain Drazerk's activity regarding the lightning rod thingy, and just being active there all the time.
I would have thought a red Drazerk would have at least mentioned IAM in some way. In PTP3 he bussed almost all his teammates without giving 2 shits about it. Granted, if he's red and he only has 1 teammate it may change...but does Drazerk change his play like that?
Damn...I keep reading PTP3 and Bastard....and I get a feeling he's playing like Bastard more.
Like, in Bastard and here his posts have that "I don't really care, I'm just having fun" aura. In PTP3 they didn't.
Fuck it's hard to explain, since there aren't exact quotes that can explain that feeling.
For instance, I don't get that feeling from this post (PTP3):
On August 30 2012 02:59 Drazerk wrote:
Huh I never did give butterfree a flying attack...
Me and JH discussed almost every possible reason as to why the night actions during N2 was screwed with last night the short answer is we can't know until someone steps forward or we kill the person who screwed with it.
As for scum KP the easy answer could be they aren't killing anyone?
Be it via roleblock / medic protects / veteran abilities we simply don't know but that seems like the more logical solution rather than Hiro's solution which means Mattchew is 100% scum. I also threw around the idea the only KP scum have is the KP the players started with, that still might be the case for all we know.
This post doesn't seem like Drazerk made it. He's asking serious questions and suggesting things about KP and stuff. At other points he has similar posts.
I don't see him making posts like this in this game.
He's fairly active in both, posts one-liners and shit and acts "similarly" (in those aspects at least), so that's hard to figure out.
Maybe I'm just being biased thinking that this will be a misslynch and trying to subconsciously find him townie by looking at his previous games. But hell I dunno.
Here are the filters:
Bastard 2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=343892&user=107918
PTP3: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359357&user=107918
I need some input on this if someone would like to read both filters. If you read both games and see how/when Drazerk responds better (just CTRL+F "Drazerk" and advance each page).
The wanting to kill S&B+Kei is one of those things that confuses me the most. It almost looks like a scum tunneling technique used to justify all of your posts (just post something related to killing those guys and that's it).
If he's scum, the claiming of his shot, the confirmation of his shot, the claiming-breadcrumb of his rolename but refusal to claim it outright, and the fact that his ability is too "simple" confuse me if he was scum (like why the hell would he do those?).
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Also, any games where Hiro has been scum? ghost too for that matter.
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Anyways my head hurts
I think not joining games with Drazerk in it would be wiser >_>
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On October 07 2012 15:00 gonzaw wrote:
Also, any games where Hiro has been scum? ghost too for that matter.
Excuse my stupidity, forgot about "profiles" even though I have one myself.
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I haven't read through the games yet (I'll do that tomorrow), but for now:
##unvote
You're right, some of the things just feel like something weird for scum to do. I've had an extreme, extreme case of confirmation bias, trying to make up scummy explanations for everything he's done. And I certainly believe they are all possible. But, I should take my own advice: most often, the easiest answer is the correct one.
That said, my next highest read is you, gonzaw.
But for now I think i'm going to try to sleep and clear my head, and maybe read through with a fresh perspective tomorrow. Maybe even take some of my old-fashioned unbiased notes.
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I'm still voting Drazerk?
##Unvote: Drazerk
Yes, I'd like more participation regarding this. I don't plan on taking a "he's not contributing or doing anything!" or "he just wants to kill S&B!" as justification for voting him. He's Drazerk, we all know how he tends to play. If we don't want to misslynch him we needs some serious analysis over here (or rather if we want to be sure we won't misslynch him).
You still think I'm BS? Fine, we can discuss that too.
Although getting bombarded with "You are BS because of Crossfire bla bla bla" and "You are RS because you soft-bussed IAM bla bla bla" is getting tired.
Just pick one of them and stick with it goddammit! 
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EPT
