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Right now I don't even know if I'd even want ghost lynched.
My gut is going for a austin-Mattchew scum for some reason.
I've already posted about austin (not with specific examples though, but it's kind of hard to find specific instances of what I'm talking about).
Matt's activity severly dropped since N1. On D2 the only remarkable thing he did was make a case on S&B and then instantly discard it after he claimed, and on D3 I don't remember him doing anything at all.
He's just coasting on the "confirmed town" status the IAM lynch gave him. I'm wary of his "pro-town" behaviour on D1 because I've seen him be "pro-town" on D1 as scum (Can't Believe again), also the fact that he could be legitimately scumhunting for.
Austin, Mattchew, ghost; those are the guys I'd want in the chopping block tomorrow. Like I said I'm less inclined to lynch ghost, because after reading previous games from him I get the gut feeling he's playing like it.
Meh, on D4 I'll try to expand on this if possible.
I've repeated this hundred times, and few people answered: Who's Red Scum?
If we decide to make connections between Xfire or Iamp, or see certain behaviour and shit, we need to know which scum team we are looking for.
In Liar Game you couldn't just say "lol he is Harimoto, or maybe Yokoya I dunno". I could have been found out by looking at my behaviour taking chaoser into mind, and ET could have been found out by looking at his behaviour taking sandro into account.
My point is that it can also help focus discussion and our thoughts of this game. Maybe thinking of austin as scum is difficult, but thinking of him as RS is not.
Maybe (like I did before) it's just a process of elimination: "Matt can't be RS", "Hiro can't be RS", "Player X can't be BS" etc can give you more insight on the situation.
I say this because it seems I'm the only one that's trying (other than some few comments some people made in passing or in 1 post, like ghost did IIRC)
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I don't remember you explicitly searching for each scum faction.
If you did my bad.
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I think I remember you posting about me being either RS or BS and making points in favour of both (or was it someone else?). Mentioning the Xfire thing was one of them, although I think you mentioned some IAM stuff as well.
The point is that I don't think it's enough, specially if we have bad reads and don't discuss them fully (i.e if everybody just assumes ghost is BS and he doesn't flip BS we have no fucking idea what to do next).
For instance, do you think Matt could be BS? Or you think there's a very higher chance either me/ghost is BS that Matt shouldn't be taken into account (for instance).
Same about RS. Do you think maybe the RS bussed IAM when he saw there was too much momentum against him? (i.e if Hiro could be RS). Or if RS Matt would just bus his sole teammate and give 0 fucks about it?
If not, who of the remaining players is most likely RS and why? austin, me, ghost or Jingle? If any of them isn't RS, why is that?
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Meh those are questions I'm making generally to all players to be honest, not just you.
Although, even if you think Hiro is town you should analyze the possibility of him being RS or BS and see if makes sense or not.
Anyways, good.
So you still think I'm the most likely scum/BS then?
I guess there's nothing I can do to change anybody's mind then? :/
I thought being heavily active in a totally "wasted" day and trying to find all scum would be enough, but oh oh well..
Now that we are talking about something I'd like something to add:
About austin, the thing I noticed in all if not most of his Can't Believe posts is that almost all of them were much more assertive. He posted way less fluff there as well. He does post fluff every time as town (he does tend to post walls of text when responding, like when he initially responded to tali's case back in D1 in Can't Believe), but his posts seemed more focused there.
...hmm, there are stuff that seem townie though. For instance his unvote of Jingle because of Jingle's vote on Mattchew.
He does post lots of explanations, for instance about his suspicions on Keirathi and stuff.....but I don't know if he could have fabricated them as scum or not. Some of his posts are just so fluffy and some seem like filler.
Meh I'm not sure, I'll go to sleep and check again in the morning.
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Nice atmosphere guys.
austin, what's fucking with my head is the fact that you haven't played as scum yet, so I don't know if you posting gigantic walls of text every 2 seconds like you do right now is something you'd do as scum or if you are just the same townie as always but not that assertive and more confused/lost/less interested
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austin, I'd really like you to post exactly what you think about me, and how your read on me changed throughout the game.
Because in D1 you were all "gonzaw is like confirmed town" and then last day you were like "yeah there are reasons to lynch gonzaw, maybe we can lynch gonzaw" and I don't remember you ever showing off suspicions of me at all until you somehow agreed to have me lynched..?
These are the 1st posts where you have some suspicion on me
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=32#624
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=40#796
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=41#805
But you don't conclude anything and I thought you just found odd stuff and ignored it later. I don't see any "gonzaw is scum" at all or you showing any suspicion on me.
Hell, one of the things you find "suspicious" (the fishing) you change your mind about it later and actually defend me for it:
On October 06 2012 05:53 austinmcc wrote:
Anyone who's scummy on Gonzaw's speculation, look at Can't Believe and also the full-on magic mini where he hydraed. There was speculation in both those games that I found scummy, especially magic, and he was townie in both. I think we need to keep discussing him, look at him for a possible lynch, but he can be a really scummy setup speculator even as town.
There are all the posts where you mention me later:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=49#961
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=49#964
You keep defending me against Jingle and even think the connections between me-Xfire isn't that good.
Then here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=55#1089
...you acknowledge the "scummy" stuff Jingle said, but again no conclusion no thoughts nothing.
Then come these posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=56#1106
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=56#1112
And suddenly I'm scum and you want to lynch me apparently?
Wtf was that about? 10 or so of your posts before you were defending me against Jingle and telling people that I do scummy speculation as town, and then out of nowhere you agree with all points Jingle made and implicitly accuse me as scum or that I should get lynched or that Draz flippin town may confirm me as scum and stuff like that?
You make a post posting your suspicions at me (#1112 I think)....and then you forget about me completely.
What about this?:
On October 06 2012 05:53 austinmcc wrote:
Anyone who's scummy on Gonzaw's speculation, look at Can't Believe and also the full-on magic mini where he hydraed. There was speculation in both those games that I found scummy, especially magic, and he was townie in both. I think we need to keep discussing him, look at him for a possible lynch, but he can be a really scummy setup speculator even as town.
Why are you defending me and then immediately after telling people I'm a possible lynch?
Please tell me your thought process on your read of me because I don't understand it.
At first you find me like "confirmed town" and shit, then you find "red flags" that I explain but you don't pay attention and ignore later. After Jingle posts his case and shit you point out other points against me....but they are more like pressure than suspicions since you don't show off any suspicion at all against me (you just ask me questions basically).
After I explain myself you don't call me out or anything so I assume you forgot about them.
Then you even defend myself against Jingle and others, telling Jingle that he's "putting a list of all things player x did and call them scummy" and defending my speculation as town...
...however you call me "possible lynch" at the same time, wtf?
After that every time you talk to me it's like you are neutral or null about me, and then immediately after you start discussing me being scum and Draz being town and talking about reasons to lynch me, and then you post suspicions on me when you are talking to Keirathi....and then you completely forget about me after that post.
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EBWOP:
^Damn my post has shitty formatting lol
@to austin: I've already explained countless of times why I think there are 2 and 2.
Even if that's not the case, 1-1 it's the minimum amount of scum left; so if I say you are RS and Mattchew is BS it can still be true, even if maybe ghost is BS as well or Jingle is RS as well or shit like that.
I don't contemplate cases of more scum since it contradicts the reads I have and it contradicts the balance of the game IMO. It's a possibility, but it's fucked up (that scum can almost completely control lynches and shit and town has very little numbers).
Again, remember that 3-3 imply that there are only 7 townies in the whole game. With that little influence it's almost impossible for town to lead a lynch on their own without the influence of both scum teams.
Unless town gets lucky and both scum teams decide to kill each other in the lynches, town is basically fucked up and is misslynched every single day.
Without town's lynch power, night saves are useless, town is useless, town loses every single time.
For instance, if the 3-3 scum thing is correct, then tomorrow I'm getting misslynched 100% (the 2-2 remaining scum jump on me, and like the 3 remaining townies can't do anything since they have less numbers, not taking into account if those townies think I'm scum as well); after that town is completely fucked and can't do shit, only die at night and watch as the scum teams fight each other.
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Also hey, I guess this means Hiro is my scumbuddy since he has the same conclusion as I do and even shitted on ghost for suggesting 3-3 scum teams.
If you guys think there are like 6 scum remaining, okay then post them. I'll give ghost some credit for doing exactly that (even though he basically didn't explain it).
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Also remember that apparently town has no KP roles left
As far as I know, Draz was the only town KP role we have, and it was 1-shot.
How the hell can town win in a 7-3-3 or 8-3-2 with 2-3 scum KP like you suggest but no KP of their own?
Again, if town can't influence lynches properly, and have no night KP, how do you expect them to win?
I remember that PYP game that was similar, but there town had like 10 KP or something and completely killed both scum teams.
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inb4 "scumslip lol gonzaw is detaching himself from town"
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When did I mention that what he did was substantial? I even said he didn't explain his reads
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Saying there are 10 scum remaining is easy if you don't make arguments for it.
I've made arguments for a 2-2 scum team, and the arguments against it are basically "gonzaw seems like he knows the setup!".
ghost tried to do that...but well you could see it didn't make much sense. At least he tried to do it and utterly failed, which is better than just saying "there are 4 scum remaining!" and not doing anything (yes even if ghost is scum).
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On October 09 2012 02:51 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2012 02:44 gonzaw wrote:
Saying there are 10 scum remaining is easy if you don't make arguments for it.
I've made arguments for a 2-2 scum team, and the arguments against it are basically "gonzaw seems like he knows the setup!".
ghost tried to do that...but well you could see it didn't make much sense. At least he tried to do it and utterly failed, which is better than just saying "there are 4 scum remaining!" and not doing anything (yes even if ghost is scum). Actually, there's the best argument at all, which you keep completely ignoring. The OP tells us how scum factional KP is calculated, in a way that suggested at least a 3 person red team. Not Caller game, so, Scum KP = #/2 rounded up suggests 3 red minimum. Wording of Crossfire's post suggested 2 black minimum. I've said this before, I believe twice. That means we should be looking for, most likely, 5-7 scum. It's a reasonable deduction that Red only had 3 people, since we have yet to see multiple KPs or, as far as can be spotted, unclaimed saves/vets.
If that's true then we basically lost unless the scum teams go against each other. You are suggesting it's either 4-2-2 or 4-2-1 right now.
If both S&B and Kei are town, then maybe they can make 1 or 2 saves tonight, but S&B will die (and thus we can't make more saves), and then scum KP will start rolling in. If it's 4-2-2 town has the same number of players as scum so town lose the power of the lynch basically (again, unless the scum teams go against each other). Again, this is if there are no kills tonight. A 2-2-2 or 3-2-2 D4 is impossible for town to win basically.
I could do all the calculations (like I did in the Liar Game) but I'm not in the mood
If S&B and Kei are scum and lied about their power....lol we can lose tonight.
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On October 09 2012 03:12 austinmcc wrote:gonzaw. I'll be more explicit if you want me to later on, and give the full thought process of why my read on you has changed. But right now I get this out in case I'm not back by deadline, so here are just two big things that I've been looking at: (1) the bit about you being sure of the setup (2) Your progression of reads/votes on Drazerk yesterday. You went from: voting him to "What if he's town?" to unvoting him because he didn't quite feel right But then...Drazerk claimed. And snb came in and claimed to have taken damage. Just damage, from a shot that was claimed to go through veteran abilities. After that claim, which directly conflicts with Drazerk's claim (at least in my mind, I know we had discussion about how bodyguard and medics could interact) vote no-lynch. Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 05:11 gonzaw wrote:
##Vote: No Lynch
Just for now, I'm going to make some errands and be back in 1 hour or 2. snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. You were scummy on Drazerk, then uncertain. In response to snb's post, you ask snb why he's ignoring the thread to get Drazerk lynched... Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 05:07 gonzaw wrote:
S&B, before I listen to you on who to lynch, please post your thoughts on everything else that went on in this D3 thread.
Like...stuff about me, stuff about Jingle, stuff about ghost and austin, etc. There's plenty of info lying around, why are you ignoring it just to get Draz lynched? and vote no-lynch. snb just refuted Drazerk's claim. snb knows that he took damage, from a guy who claims that his shot goes through extra lives. snb isn't "ignoring thread to get Drazerk lynched." snb KNOWS that Drazerk is lying (it just turns out he was lying as town  ). Town JUST FOUND SCUM. Drazerk is lying about his claim, barring some third claim of something weird that could explain the redirected shot AND a source for the phantom KP on snb. We have neither of those. Drazerk lying, Drazerk scum is way way way more likely. But you don't seem to notice that. You want snb's thoughts on the day, want to know why he's ignoring the day in order to get Drazerk lynched. When snb has just found scum. It's like...you don't understand the implications of what just happened. Like D3 was going to be your big time to shine, to unvote Drazerk, find him townie, have a thread presence, and get Drazerk off the hook maybe. Then Drazerk gets CAUGHT and you're still trying to salvage that - what are your thoughts on the day, stop looking at the scum you found, what about all this other stuff? Unless you knew of a reason why Drazerk's shot wouldn't have connected, and chose not to explain it (which also seems un-townie), then how is that your reaction?
On October 08 2012 04:42 gonzaw wrote:
Something weird happened on N1, and I can vouch for that (again, regarding my role).
If I told you guys what happened to me you would say "I don't see a scenario that explains what gonzaw is saying, therefore he's lying" as well.
Maybe I'm inclined to believe Draz because of that.
Dammit austin read the thread.
I knew S&B didn't lie about the shot, he did get shot. S&b coming to the thread didn't do anything to change my mind or anything.
My gut feeling that he was town, coupled with all the things he did that didn't make sense from a scum perspective are enough to make me assume something weird happened on N1 where a town Drazerk's shot didn't kill S&B for some reason.
Town JUST FOUND SCUM.
It didn't seem like it. Go back and read your posts about Drazerk after S&B claimed, starting with this one:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=372174¤tpage=60#1195
You aren't going on about "TOWN JUST FOUND SCUM!!", so why are you expecting ME to do so?
Is that really enough for you to think I'm scum?
The "sure about the setup" and "Drazerk" thing is just soweak.
JH made that post on mattchew. He hasn't unmade that post. Therefore, I'm still convinced he's town
How about the rest of his play? 1 post doesn't exonerate him as scum or town if his play the rest of the game shows otherwise.
Man austin, I don't like that post of yours. It's just lots of fluff. You basically say that Hiro could be anything, that ghost is sure BS because of the Xfire connection and you explain stuff about Matt that's been said 100 times before (would Matt bus his GF/JOAT on D1? Maybe he's black? etc).
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On October 09 2012 03:33 Mattchew wrote:
is it night?
Can we kill you Mattchew?
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Okay, I'm going to uni and won't be around deadline.
I wanted to claim right before deadline in case I die, but I guess I can't.
Hopefully either you guys are smart enough to see what happened after I flip, or scum don't shoot me.
If I flip, I take it you guys can figure out what happened on N1 without any help. Also, I said I didn't breadcrumb and now I kind of feel bad for not doing so (in case I die).
There is a post of mine that's sort of a breadcrumb. If you read it it doesn't seem like it taking into account the context, but the context just happened to be the correct one for my crumb to work.
If you guys find that "crumb", I give you one word: ghost (bolded doesn't mean anything, i.e not BS or stuff, it's just emphasis).
Man, I hope I don't die or this works.
See ya.
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Okay, I think my role may be obsolete or something.
I think I'll claim. Someone else may make more sense of this situation.
On the other hand if this "town bus driver" thing is true I dunno if it'd help. Meh, I'm sure everybody will jump on my ass anyways so I might as well claim all the info I have.
You know what, I think I may also be completely honest with you guys about my role. Mostly because if I'm not it won't really matter once I die. Although I know certain people will try to get me lynched because of it as well.
I'll wait until everybody posts before doing it though.
On October 09 2012 07:40 austinmcc wrote:
Just got back in.
Thought I had this afternoon - we don't know if our position swapper or bus driver in this game is town or not, but I'm hoping that's a town role.
IF you've been RBed recently and haven't claimed, you probably should. We've had no RB claims, so mementoss's rat nest seems to have disappeared with him or gone on a spot where someone got lynched and didn't claim RB? But IF we have anyone who knows where the rat's nest is, you ought to claim the location, so that the bus driver can swap people into that slot and play jailkeeper.
Are you going to respond to all those stuff mentioned about your previous post?
On October 09 2012 07:52 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2012 07:56 gonzaw wrote:
Oh fuck if you flip scum I'll feel so retarded this makes me think gonzaw is scum.
If I was scum I wouldn't know if Draz was town or from the other scum faction.
Seriously, how many times was this addressed?
On October 09 2012 03:53 Keirathi wrote:
Seriously? That's the best you can do?
Of you are town, literally the best thing you could do right now is make yourself a juicy enough target that you get nk'd. Basically everyone is suspicious of you, and if you are town, then your mislynch probably loses the game for town.
...was that directed at me?
One: I couldn't think of any other way to give you guys info (in case I die) without claiming (if I claimed scum would know what to do in response to that).
Second: Yeah, scum killing me might be good so all these guys stop going against me. I'll scumhunt until I stop breathing though, and I hope smart/sensible people analyze my play accordingly so my misslynch won't happen (not to completely absolve myself from responsibility if that happens though)
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On October 09 2012 08:44 strongandbig wrote:
I did not take a hit.
You know, even if you are town I think you should really claim who you target right before the deadline.
if you target player X, and you die, and you don't claim who you targeted, there's no way we can know who you could have saved (assuming you can die if your target take 1-2 hits).
Anyways, it's weird how the hell you don't take any hits S&B considering there are 3 targets that can make you take one. Something is wrong here (whether with you or with scum's powers or something).
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EPT
