EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIII
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
My buttox are firmly held. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Much to my delight, I’ve rolled Vanilla Townie this game – I hope strength in numbers shall prevail this game! I ended up rolling mafia-goon in the last newbie game I played (Newbie Mafia XXI), and two members of my scumteam got away with blatant-lurking for days because of poor D1 discussion and a disorganized town. Our scumteam ended up winning that game in large part to this lack of productive discussion. So to get things moving in a good direction, howabout some policy talk? I propose the following:
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Townies are the most important players in the game! You have no reason to fear death and you can post without inhibitions! Be thoughtful, be unafraid, and have fun! Don't be bored/dissapointed that you don't have a power role; posting is what makes this game fun, and that's what a vanilla townie does best! ...and don't forget to post post post! | ||
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Hapahauli
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A couple of things regarding your post: On August 06 2012 08:28 Dandel Ion wrote: Policy talk: Blindly lynching lurkers is probably just as bad as blindly lynching active people. If scum divides roles properly they will try to have ~2 posting actively and maybe 1 trying to lay low. Also, it's a huge tell if a lurker starts getting really active later in the game, so scum lurkers are not my primary concern right now. I don't consider sudden activty later in the game a "huge-tell" - can you explain this to me? I do not agree with not lynching players just by merit of being active. But since it is highly unlikely that we find a big scumslip on day 1 (though one may hope), I would be fine with getting rid of a lurker day 1. I would also be okay with a no-lynch on day 1, since the chances of correctly lynching without information is 25%, so basically it's a crapshoot. But I'll understand if I find few supporters for that idea... Just putting it out there. No-lynching Day 1 is a terrible terrible idea. Even in the event of a mislynch, town gains so much information from the voting process that even a lynch with "poor odds" is beneficial. Furthermore, I believe town has a higher than 25% chance of lynching mafia if we don't bandwagon on an active/controversial poster (this is where most of the mislynches come from in the recent games I've seen). A no-lynch gives mafia a free night-kill while keeping the town in the dark. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Welcome Dandel Ion! Good to see you in the thread so soon =) yaaaaay typos. | ||
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Hapahauli
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@ Dandel Ion: I disagree to a certain extent - not all scum will suddenly become active and incriminate themselves to bandwagon a player. Many scum in newbie games are comortable staying out of the thread and never being active. I do not believe that the "sudden activity read" it is an excuse to not be concerned with "scum lurkers" early in the game, and we should smoke-'em out as early as possible. On August 06 2012 08:50 Dandel Ion wrote: ... But with scum being able to coordinate themselves, I'd imagine it's very easy for them to force a bandwagon on a townie, no? I think you over-estimate the power of mafia. Mafia only have 3 votes as opposed to town's 9 votes. Furthermore, if Mafia violently forces a bandwagon, it reveals their hand and makes them easy lynches in subsequent days. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 06 2012 09:35 Synystyr wrote: LOL I believe that not lynching players simply because they are active is a good way to go about things. You could be scum using that as an excuse to cover up. While I do see the benefit in lynching a lurker versus an active player, I do not believe this should be the sole reasoning on how we lynch someone. Well of course it won't be the only reason we lynch someone. Doing something like lynching the lowest postcount D1 would be absurd. However, I hope you do agree that we should be putting our suspicion (atleast on D1) on less active players. On August 06 2012 09:45 Lvdr wrote: Also it seems to me that if golbat was a failmafia in his last game, he probably got set as town in this one. Discuss. Erm dude, Golbat wasn't mafia in his last game. | ||
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Hapahauli
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=6#108 Day 1 post dude. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 06 2012 10:07 Dandel Ion wrote: Scumslip or most obvious scumslip? Discuss. Scumslip or not, I want to hear an answer for how Lvdr managed to post false-information that he could have verified in a 10-second search of Golbat's posting history... FOS Lvdr | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 06 2012 10:54 Lvdr wrote: Hapahauli was very eager to be suspicious of me based on my ignorance of prior events. Could be mafia sowing confusion. So why shouldn't I be suspicious of you? Posting false information makes you look pretty bad. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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On August 06 2012 11:30 mkfuba07 wrote: Alright. A bit of policy talk first: Blindly doing anything is a poor decision. If we're going to catch the correct people, it has to be based on reasoning and not the potential threat of a lurker. By the end of D1, we should have some read on most of the posters. It's much smarter to make a comparatively informed decision regarding someone we have interacted with than a random selection from those who have said very little. I think policy lynchings (or safeties) are a bad idea in general. It not only limits the amount of logical reasoning involved, but it gives scum the means of avoiding suspicion, hiding in the holes we've created for them. Force them to defend themselves and we'll force information out of them. While I agree that blind policy lynching in its purest form is bad (i.e. lynching someone ONLY because they're lurking), I believe policy can be a good guideline to prevent mislynch. For example, given two equally "suspicious" players (one active and one "lurky"), I would be much more inclined to lynch the lurker, on the basis that in newbie games, active mafia are a rarity. Newbie mafia are usually incredibly lurky - especially Day 1 when they are still figuring out how to post. Also, an anti-lurker policy doesn't let mafia hide - it forces them to post and remain in the open. When mafia are forced to be active/scum-hunt, it is near impossible for them not to reveal their intentions. As a result, an anti-lurker policy can only be good for town (as long as it's not taken to logical extremes of course). | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 06 2012 14:24 Shady Sands wrote: Yeah, overeagerness on D1 can be pretty bad, especially in a newbie game. In XXII a confirmed townie ended up getting the Vigi lynched because the Vigi didn't know how to properly defend himself against accusations without looking even more scummy in the process. We need everyone to at least have made a post in here before any serious hunting can begin. Otherwise we're giving up too much edge to scum, who can just lurk and wait for town to WIFOM and OMGUS each other to death. Well this I disagree with - if someone doesn't post, we can't sit around all day and not make cases. Also, the people who haven't posted need some things to talk about in addition to policy! So I call the town's attention to the following post by Synystyr: On August 06 2012 09:35 Synystyr wrote: LOL I believe that not lynching players simply because they are active is a good way to go about things. You could be scum using that as an excuse to cover up. While I do see the benefit in lynching a lurker versus an active player, I do not believe this should be the sole reasoning on how we lynch someone. This post reads as very scummy to me. His first sentence is fluff-talk: don't lynch players becaue only because they're active (duh?). Synystyr then passively casts suspicion on me without committing to a stance. He then finishes his post with fluffy, obvious, and non-controversial viewpoint on policy. FOS Synystyr | ||
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Hapahauli
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@ mkfuba07 - On August 06 2012 18:19 mkfuba07 wrote: If they're both equally scummy, then wouldn't there be an equal chance of each being mafia? In that case wouldn't we gain more information from the flip of an active player than an inactive one? I argue that new players are naturally inclined to see active players (especially those that can't defend themselves but are willing to post) as scummy instead of helpless townies. As a result, with two even scum reads (one active and one lurking), it's better to pick the one who's posted less, because they have a greater chance of being scummy given mafia general tendency. Anywho, this is all semantics, but I hope you atleast agree that we should be focusing on less-active players Day 1. Looking through the last few games of Newbie Mafia's, I haven't seen a single situation where an active D1 poster getting lynched ended up flipping red. @ Promethelax: Welcome to the thread! I found one of your posts fairly interesting in regards to the policy discussion: On August 06 2012 18:54 Promethelax wrote: 1. True! 2. Did you read that game? I had town by the nose by virtue of not lurking. 3. No! Bad YourHarry, lynching a townie is always bad. Lynching a bad townie hurts town because we lose a townie. It's worth saying that while I'm pushing the anti-lurker policy, I was also a very active mafia in Newbie XXI. However, I believe it is near impossible to reliably lynch active-maifa with on D1 with no information. It's a much better idea to go after easy targets, and then use the flips to determine allignments among active players. Even in Newbie XXI, I had no visible "scumslips" and my game in the early days was consistent, but it was still possible to infer that I was Mafia in the later days based on my attitudes towards players as well as my lynch actions taken as a whole. Also, the great thing about policy is that it can always be changed on a whim! If everyone posts actively, we can quickly scrap this and have a productive base to start the scum-hunt! @ YourHarry: On August 06 2012 16:31 YourHarry wrote: Hapha Thanks for schooling me last game. Although I did point out that you didn't start the game with one of your long ass analysis on why someone is scum, until I pointed this out. And even for the rest of the game, the frequency of your long ass analysis was significantly lacking compared to the first game we played together. This time, I have my eyes on you. <3 You bring up an interesting point regarding analysis, and one of the things I learned last game was how ineffective my Wall-O-Texts were at getting people lynched. As townie in XX, I had difficulty pushing my cases because people didn't have the patience to read my posts! (Plus they took HOURS to write T_T) I had much more success pushing my "suspicions" as Mafia in XIX when I pointed them out in smaller posts that people actually had the patience to read. You will see the occasional Wall-O-Text from me, but expect the word-for-word length of my analysis to be shorter this game. However, I assure you my analysis will not be lacking in content! | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 07 2012 01:21 Synystyr wrote: @Hapa Don't be so quick to vote me after one post  I was merely implying that activity is not indicative of alignment and shouldn't be taken into account in a case, yet.@Dandel My read on Golbat is that he's neutral leaning scum. Scum like to cause discord amongst the town, and there's really no need for attacks on reading comprehension without a good reason. He's just trying to stir shit up. He wants to lynch lurkers as well, which may be the start of a defense to as why he shouldn't be lynched d1. I didn't vote you yet Synystyr, just an FOS is all. But what's with the passive finger-pointing? In the first post, you mention that "I could be active scum" trying to clear myself - what's the townie motive behind that? Secondly, that reasoning on Golbat is terribad: he's trying to stir shit up and focus on lurkers (good townie behavior), and therefore he's setting up to defend himself and therefore he's scum?! Yeah ok buddy. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 01:41 Dandel Ion wrote: Well you could be scum. I don't think it's bad to point out that, just because something looks towny, it can't be scum-motivated too. He did not actually attack you, or even imply to direct his post towards you. It seemed to me like he was talking more in general. Yet you're getting pretty defensive, pretty fast. Synystyr, now that you're here, post some more plox. I agree, from your perspective I could be mafia. However, I'm calling attention as to how Synyster decides to cast suspicion. His post literally says nothing, and it reads as a passive fingerpoint to me. As for my "defensiveness," I don't make any effort to defend myself - I'm simply pointing out scummy behavior, and this one just so happens to involve my name. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 07 2012 03:43 Synystyr wrote: On the contrary, I feel quite safe going with my instinct that you are a townie. You ask all the right questions and cast good suspicion over everyone. I really do mean it when I say I'm just being cautious. You never know what could happen. I'm surprised that you feel so strongly that I'm town this early in the game. Instinct alone isn't grounds to trust someone on Day 1, and how can you know I'm casting "good suspicion" and asking the "right questions" when no one has flipped? Please explain your read on me more. You also have not answered my questions in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=10#187 Why do you find Golbat suspicious? Please provide more evidence than "he hasn't been too productive" - no one in the game has been productive yet. What in particular about his posts do you find not productive? @ Promethelax: On August 07 2012 02:07 Promethelax wrote: ... Hapa: thanks for getting the discussion going. How do you feel about Golbat? Golbat has a slight townie read to me at the moment, based on his interaction with Lvdr. I feel that scum Golbat would have taken the opportunity to grill Lvdr based on his misinformation more instead of forgiving his behavior as poor reading. It's especially telling that Golbat takes this stance despite two other players (me an Dandel Ion) pointing suspicion at Lvdr. (This of course assumes Lvdr is town-alligned, but it's a waste of all our time for me to dream up a hypothetical Golbat/Lvdr scumteam scenarios with such little information, and I have no reason to believe so at this point in the game). Of course this can change based on future posting, but that's my view based on very limited information. @ Lvdr: On August 07 2012 02:37 Lvdr wrote: Prome- What do you think of hapa? Seems solidly town, but a gf play could be devastating, esp given that he has been an active and successful scum before. On August 07 2012 02:54 Lvdr wrote: gf is godfather - therefore undetectable. Strat would be: elected godfather, become important and active townie, lead town around on a merry chase. First off, it's great that you're considering all possibilities, and I welcome any and all questions about my behavior and posting. That being said, this type of speculation (i.e - I could be the godfather and it could be deadly for town) is pretty worthless early in the game, especially if there's no evidence behind it. Random speculative scenarios usually lead to bad/distracting discussion. Note: Godfather's aren't "elected," they are a role chosen pre-game by the hosts. Perhaps you made a typo, but I wanted to clear this up in case. Regarding suspicions on YourHarry - With no offense to YourHarry, his townie play in XXI was pretty incoherent, but so far, he's willing to stick his neck out and draw attention to himself. I doubt mafia would so willingly draw attention to themselves so early in the game, and I have a townie read on YourHarry for now. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Hapahauli
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As for Doc/DT/BlueRole stuff, most of that discussion happens during the night cycle, since actions don't have to be sent in until then. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 06:29 Lvdr wrote: Sounds reasonable. I mean that doc heals X, DT checks Y, etc. Who is on your suspicious list? I will say that talking about blue-role actions early in the game is considered semi-taboo (unless you have a very good reason to do so of course) - mafia can use blue discussion as clues to kill blue roles during the night, so most people stray away from such discussion. As for my suspicion list, Synystyr is #1 of course. I generally don't like to focus on more than one person at a time, as it can be distracting for the town with multiple suspicions flying around. In addition, I find it inexcusable that Sideni and TolEranceNA have still not posted almost 24 hours into the game. | ||
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Hapahauli
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@ Golbat: Awesome, I look forward to your cases | ||
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Hapahauli
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As stated previously, Synyster is my top suspect for the reasons below: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=8#153 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=10#185 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=11#211 | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 08:41 Synystyr wrote: Let me assure you guys that I am indeed town! I apologize for the number of "fluff" posts that you guys say I am making. There is simply not much to go off this early in the game. I would move for a lurker policy lynch at this point in the game over any other active players unless they make me suspicious. Golbat says he has some cases to post, so I'd like to hear what he has to say. Unfortunately, I need more than your assurances to establish your innocence. Can you please answer the questions I posed to you in my last post addressed to you? It feels like you're dodging them repeatedly: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=11#211 @ Dandel Ion: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=201&topic_id=355874 In your post here, you mention that you looked through Harry's meta to get a read on him, and didn't know what to think of him. Do you still believe Harry is scum despite his meta in past games? | ||
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Hapahauli
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=6#109 Please try to catch up reading the thread in the next hour or so - it's not too long for now. When you do, post the player(s) you find most suspicious. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 08:39 YourHarry wrote: Lvdr's case against me - that I was too lazy to fix my quote mishap - seems logically flawed in the most extreme sense that I can't help think that he is scum. As I explained, the reason why I didn't fix the post was because the it was still readable and I didn't feel the need to create a duplicate post with identical content, especially since the post was rather long. But more importantly, Lvdr is basically saying that scums are inherently less interested in fixing their posts because they want to actively make it confusing for town. I have never seen or heard something like this happen. And I have seen many times where townies left their posts unfixed. I usually maintain that logical flaws is not a scum tell, because townies also make mistakes. But when the mistakes are borderline unreasonable, it is difficult for me to accept that such townie making the mistake is doing it because he is being forced to make a case against someone. YourHarry, you currently have your vote on Promethelax (and at one point on mkfuba07), yet you're accusing Lvdr of mafia motive. Do you still find Promethelax and mkfuba to be suspicious? | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 09:28 Sideni wrote: As for YourHarry, from what I've read, he's acting quite suspiciously, the most of all... I have to tell that I wouldn't know who to vote for =/ I don't feel like we're currently following the policy we instored for Day One  Why do you find YourHarry suspicious so far? Also, how are we not following our day 1 policy? @ Dandel Ion http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=12#238 Regarding your post about Harry's erratic play, do you really think Mafia would do that? Even if it is strange, it did generate quite a bit of discussion (as Harry intended). Furthermore, he walks into a thread and does practically everything to attract attention to himself. I highly doubt that Mafia would be so willing to put themselves in the spotlight so early in the game. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 10:02 iamperfection wrote: I want to make it clear that i still think yourharry is the best bet for flppping to scum. also to the defense that this is his town "meta" we dont really have a yourharry scum meta to go off now do we. ...but we do have several games of town YourHarry meta, and he's completely in line with that so far. I really can't see why YourHarry (as hypothetical mafia) would draw attention to himself so blatantly in the early game. Firing off votes and FOS's without reason might not be popular or good play, but I don't see scum motivation in deliberately attracting that attention upon himself. The suspicions on YourHarry looks like a case of suspecting a controversial poster rather than a legitimately scummy one. So iamperfection, why do you find YourHarry scummy? You certainly outlined why his play is bad, but where's the scum motivation? To add to this, you of all people should know how incoherent YourHarry's townie play is from Newbie XXI. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Please keep discussion of XXI and other games out of this thread. Your question doesn't do anything for this game. Also, I asked you some questions about your suspicions on YourHarry - could you please answer them? Thanks! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=13#249 (Here for reference) | ||
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Hapahauli
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I like your case against iamperfection, and I question the motives of his vote. He charges in when a bunch of people are FOS'ing YourHarry for very suspect reasoning (bad play as opposed to mafia motive). FOS iamperfection | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 10:32 iamperfection wrote: What can i say i disagree with you. If he could answer that question with logic i would be more inclined to believe that there is some logic to his madness. If he cant i think my points stand. Do i have a note here that says he is scum no but i also dont have anything from anyone else that someone else i 100 times better so i think my logic stands on getting him out of the game. You keep mentioning "logic-this" and "logic-that," but I have yet to see any logic in your posts. How is questioning YourHarry about Calgar in XXI "logical?" Great, you disagree with me but why? What part of his play do you see as scummy? I see you pointing out his bad play, but none of his scummy play. Tell me what "scum-Harry's" motives are for posting the way he did. | ||
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Hapahauli
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@ ShadySands - Love the case and it's completely in-line with my suspicions earlier in the game. While I'm highly suspicious of Synystyr, I want to see more of his posting before I cast my vote. If he continues to ignore the questions I posed to him earlier, I will vote him tomorrow. @ Golbat - What happened to your case against the 2nd player? Given that I was already casting heavy suspicion againt Synystyr, I was expecting a bit more than that out of you after such a build up. | ||
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Hapahauli
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On August 07 2012 11:15 iamperfection wrote: Hapa i know your afraid of revisting that game because of your scum meta but its definitly fine to revisit it. Woah whaaat!? I've very willingly pointed out my play in XXI several times in this thread. That's some misinformation right there. That's also quite the fingerpoint - so you're accusing me of being mafia then? Like i said before if he could explain how he came to that conclusion i would be more likely to believe there is a method to the madness. I don't give two shits about his play last game - I care about his play in this game. His coherence in his last game does nothing to tell us about his play in this game. And so far, I think his play this game makes sense from a "getting everyone to talk" perspective. Introducing cahos is a scum motive in my view. Thats what yourhrry does with his posting he introduces chaos. Do i have some other motives for lynching him yes. Do i not like how he plays yes. Do i not want yourharry by my side if god forbid i make it that far yes. You might not like that hapa but its the truth. Also i did not charge in i called out yourharry in my very first post and he ignored it. yourharry is my case his posting in this thread just confirmed to me what i already knew. He is reckless and i want him out. So you called out YourHarry before you post and wanted him gone before anything happened in the game?!?!? How on EARTH is that town motive? | ||
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On August 07 2012 11:37 Lvdr wrote: What do you mean there are only 3 mafia? Why can't everyone be mafia! In all seriousness, my FOS point to only 2: synyster and iamperfection For the record, YH and golbat are likely townie reads in my opinion. Why the sudden shift in attitude on YourHarry and Golbat? Also, of synyster and iamperfection, is there one that stands out to you as a better lynch candidate (and why)? | ||
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Hapahauli
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Ya know, this post isn't going to go away just because you tried to pick a fight with Lvdr: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=14#269 I still want answers for the following: 1) Are you accusing me of being mafia? 2) You called out YourHarry in your first post - why did you do this before he even posted/ was worthy of suspicion? 3) And while we're at it, what do you think of the cases against Synystyr? | ||
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On August 07 2012 12:40 iamperfection wrote: 1) no. My thinking was this hypothetically harry flips town then boom someone can attack you with meta from the last game thats why i think you could be worried about that. 2) i dont like the way he plays i think ive made that quite clear. Did i have an agenda to get him out of the game yes thats the truth. You dont have to like it. its not nice. its not even fair but i think the longer yourharry is in the game he does more damage than good. You dont have to agree with that but im just stating my thinking behind why i wanted him lynched. 3)Synyster has five posts. Its hard to say he is "scum" cause there isnt much to go on. I think he might be somewhat fearful in posting. His accusations seem to focus on productivity which is wierd because he is very unproductive himself. If forced to guess i would say awful town. #1: That doesn't make sense. If Harry flipped town (after a hypothetical lynch), how would I look bad for defending him? What does this even have to do with be being scared of my XXI meta? Is this our only reasoning for why I would be scared of my meta? #2: Well if you're going to take such a strong stance from the beginning of the game, that's anti-town behavior. Don't be surprised that the town gets on your case if you pre-determined to lynch someone before they posted. Hell, I've looked through your meta in XXI and I don't understand why you're so angry at Harry. It's not like you didn't get along with him in XXI, and you never got mad at him for his play in that game. Hell you even DEFENDED YourHarry in that game based on his "bad play". http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398¤tpage=42#829 On July 21 2012 01:18 iamperfection wrote: i might regret this but The one thing i dont like about it is that he tries to cast suspicion on you. In my view looking at it you are basically mod confirmed townie in my view now. The only other possibilty is their would have to be a roleblocker on the scum team. However, combined with your ability to play the role of aggresive townie and the actual circumstance of the bread crumb i highly doubt your lying and combined with probulous basically confirming that their is a role block role i think its safe to assume your town. What i dont like about is why would the scum team continue to rally against you. It seems kind of silly to me to try and waste effort to try and cast doubt on you. Maybe im giving the scum team to much credit but in my view thier efforts are better spent else where. So basically harrys accusation are so dumb in my view that he might be town because the scum team as whole i would think would recognize it would be a lost cause to go against you. #3: What's your reasoning for Synyster being awful town vs. scummy? ShadySands does a pretty good job outlining why Synyster's posts are pretty scummy - what about his post do you not agree with? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=13#251 | ||
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Hapahauli
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However, we need to narrow down the number of suspicions we take to the lynch deadline atleast 5-6 hours before the lynch deadline. Too many suspicions floating around makes it incredibly hard to secure a majority lynch. Also, it's important not to simply post suspicions - we need to post why we think a person is more suspicious than other players. If you intend on holding your suspicions/votes on Promethelax/Lvdr, I expect you to say why they are more suspicious than the standing cases on iamperfection and Synystyr. My thoughts on the two cases above are coming within the hour. | ||
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Hapahauli
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Lvdr seems like bad-townie more than scum-motive. He's been very responsive (almost instantly if you look at timestamps) to my questions, and has generally maintained an active presence. I view his "inconsistency" as townie as well - he's flip-flopped a lot this game and has made no effort to hide his thoughts. I think mafia would be more careful than that. Secondly, his filter reads exactly like a townie would think! He's never too sure of himself, and he acknowledges new suspicions with new information. I'm not a fan of his play (one-liners, summary posting, etc), but he is active, and it reads as bad-townie to me. | ||
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I'll be honest - I just don't have enough information to cast significant suspicion against Promethelax. I consider the meta-stuff as null tells. I consider his view on YourHarry a null-tell as well, and I give him some townie points for being willing to flip-flop on his views. I'd expect mafia to tunnel YourHarry more (hence my suspicions against iamperfection). I also don't follow your logic here: He mentions many actions that are considered pro-town, gives advice for appearing pro-town, and states as a strength "posting in an active and pro-town manner." When not giving meta advice, his posts are filled with instructions for how to be a good townie. This isn't an issue on its own, but he then avoids contributing to the discussion, either simply agreeing/disagreeing with people or telling them he'll look into it. His only case is one against Golbat based on something he admits is not a scum tell. He votes for Golbat despite stating that he feels that YH's play is scummy, and this is after he states that it's bad to lynch townies no matter what. I think you twist his motives here. By the time he votes for Golbat, he's pretty up-front about how he thinks YH is town. Also, his statement about "it's bad to lynch townies" has no contradictions with his vote against Golbat, who he believes is exhibiting "anti-town behavior" by virtue of Golbat's promised (yet missing at that point in time) case. | ||
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I defended Promethelax earlier on this page on the basis that I didn't have enough information to make a read on him. Now I do - Promethelax has NOT been scumhunting! On this basis, I believe he is mafia. My case is based on the following three observations: 1) Inconsistent attitude towards YourHarry 2) Voting Golbat for scum-mentality reasons 3) Fluff Posting (meta/town-advice/etc) Prom's attitude towards YourHarry Promethelax has had a very inconsistent attitude towards YourHarry (YH). He is one of the first to FOS YH on the basis of his anti-town play. Despite his FOS, he calls YH's play erratic, talking a lot about his play while being indecisive: ... YH was town in XXI and played as inexplicably as he is playing here. He voted for three people on D1 and unvoted one of them about a million times (rereading his filter I can't tell how many were because he wrote them wrong and how many were because he changed his mind). All three of his targets were town. not going to lie, I laughed. But this is a waste of time and space. How do you feel about him and his play? Is Harry town, null or scum in your eyes and why? Promethelax is very concerned with YourHarry, but never really makes an effort to make a case, or even pressure YH. This is because he's not scumhunting. Things get very strange in his next few posts. First, he lightly defends YourHarry by questioning Dandel Ion's case against him: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=11#203 Read his (ed note: YourHarry's) posts and look for the motivation in them, is it scum or town? As scum why would he do what he has done? as town why would he do it. Actions speak louder than meta. The above quote would imply that he doesn't find YH's posts scummy since he's attacking Dandel Ion's suspicions, yet in Prom's next post... Though Harry has played so far with his pants squarely atop his head I feel that this is totally in line with his town meta, essentially I find his posting scummy and will be watching him but am hesitant to vote into him because his play is simply bad and, as any coach will tell you, bad play is a dumb-tell not a scum tell. Again, he show's hesitancy and contradicts his thoughts above. Note how he calls Harry's posting scummy, yet hasn't contributed any analysis towards why. However, I find this post the most scummy: If more people want to bring up Harry's bad play as scummy they will have to go through me. I am, here and now, hard defending his bad play. It is bad. Not scummy. The one thing that makes him look scummy to me was his first refusal to re-post his post after screwing up the formatting. Since than he has been playing in a pro-town way and I expect him to continue to improve. All of a sudden, Promethelax has no doubts about YourHarry. Despite his hesitancy above, he's convinced that Harry's play is bad-townie. This is a complete 180 from his previous quotes, where he believes Harry's posts are indeed scummy, but are in line with his previous townie meta. Promethelax is TOO convinced YH is town - only scum would know that. Prom's Cases against Golbat After getting of the YH case, Prom moves on to Golbat. After some light suspicion about Golbat, he puts on his vote: On August 07 2012 10:01 Promethelax wrote: Though Harry has played so far with his pants squarely atop his head I feel that this is totally in line with his town meta, essentially I find his posting scummy and will be watching him but am hesitant to vote into him because his play is simply bad and, as any coach will tell you, bad play is a dumb-tell not a scum tell. The player I have the most concern with right now is Golbat, as I said earlier making a promise and not following through is an anti-town behavior. Not simply bad play but anti-town. This allows for a player to get off the hook of suspicion because they have promised to do work to help town but also keeps them from having to put their reads into the thread which allows a scum player to stay neutral about people until they can let a townie make the case. Until he posts his 'cases' my ##Vote will be on Golbat Note the language here - he votes Golbat for being "anti-town." He doesn't accuse Golbat of being mafia, nor something like the "scummiest player." Just "anti-town". He also gives a possible motive for Golbat's play, but never accuses Golbat of being mafia! This may seem innocuous, but check out the next quote: Context: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=15#292 ... And the one case he did post was on a guy who was already under suspicion. His actions lead me to believe that he is in fact a scummy player trying to get out of posting promised cases because he does not want to be forced into a position of having strong reads at the beginning of the game as such he will retain my vote. See a pattern here? Again, voting someone because they're a "scummy player" - NOT because he thinks Golbat is Mafia. This is Mafia motive! Mafia want to get "scummy players" lynched, and not actual scum. Prom's Fluff Posting Prom's Filter (starts on Page 2, because Page 1 is all pre-game stuff): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=251061¤tpage=2 Prom really hasn't posted that much. On top of this, he's been much more concerned with talking about meta and giving town-advice rather than scum-hunting. While I consider this a null-tell alone, combined with the above evidence, it paints the picture of a mafia avoiding posting actual analysis. Based on the three points above, Promethelax is my strongest scum read. He's shown mafia-mentality in his case against Golbat, and he's just TOO sure that YourHarry is townie. | ||
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Synystyr - while he has been suspicious, the suspicion on him so far has been too easy. It's been coming together without any resistance from scum or Synystyr himself. I doubt mafia would sit back and watch one of their own burn with so little resistance. WIFOM, yes, but that's my feeling. iamperfection - His play has been suspicious, but my confirmation bias may have gotten the best of me when I questioned him. I just can't see mafia deciding to policy-lynch YourHarry from day 1. It seems absurd in my eyes, and I want to see more from iamperfection before I make a decision. | ||
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My Case on Promethelax http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=15#299 Cliff-Notes: 1) Inconsistent attitude towards YourHarry 2) Voting Golbat for scum-mentality reasons 3) Fluff Posting (meta/town-advice/etc) | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:09 Shady Sands wrote: The reason why it's felt so easy to lynch Synystyr is because he hasn't been defending himself. I haven't seen a single case or single defense out of him since the train on him started, which is anti-town play. Given how guilty Syn looks and Syn's inactivity, we could just as easily say that scum was bussing him. You could very well be right, however, it's my experience that concensus lynches on D1 rarely end well. Furthermore, his lack of defense is not necessarily mafia-oriented - you'd think mafia would atleast ATTEMPT to defend themselves, or at the very least, his teammates would urge him to post. This reads as bored/ragequitting townie to me. | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:22 mkfuba07 wrote: I'm going to reread your case against Prom a few times before responding to it, but I just want to know: What was the tipping point between your previous slight town vibe and "strongest scum read"? I was tunneling iamperfection so hard that I didn't see anything else around me (confirmation bias wooo). Your initial case alerted me to Promethelax's play, and after replying to your case, I was surprised at how little attention he was getting with his relatively low post count (most of his posts are pre-game). One thing led to another, and I decided to write a case this morning. The last paragraph in his last post really sealed the deal for me - the mafia-motive to me is very clear, and the rest of his play falls into place very well. | ||
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/in | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=15#300 @ Shady - if Synyster didn't flip red, you would've looked awful from the case you pushed @ YourHarry - you just blew my mind lol | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:42 mkfuba07 wrote: /in~ Would you mind explaining my slip(s) to me? I felt that each of my reads was acceptable given the concerns I presented, so I would guess that the slip was part of the concerns themselves. I thought it was pretty well constructed  3 scum, 4 reads It's just a very scummy post - you mention you want to "narrow down your reads" like I suggested, then immediately post multiple suspicions. You're "ordering players by scumminess" instead of catching mafia. | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:46 Dandel Ion wrote: I did that too though. (just with actual scum on top of the list, suck it "town meta") You mean this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=12#225 I read that as pretty townie tbh - it's just like a townie would think at that point in the game: one or two stronger reads with a bunch of null-tells. | ||
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On August 08 2012 02:52 Keirathi wrote: I gotta say, I don't really see where you are coming from here. Picking 4 people out of 12 (13? I didn't actually count) IS narrowing it down. Ordering players by scumminess is something everyone does in every case ever in which they make points against multiple people. Saying "I think A has a 50% chance to flip scum, B has a 40% chance to flip scum, and C and D both have a 25% chance to flip scum" and then keeping your pressure on A and possibly even voting at some point isn't "scummy", its a play that either side would do. Well valid or not, I did read it as scummy when it was posted =P | ||
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On August 08 2012 03:02 TolEranceNA wrote: I sincerely apologize for my lack of activity in the past 24 hours, as for now, i will try my hardest to start being a useful and active town member. If you feel that I am lynch worthy, please share your opinion, as for my inactivity is due to my work schedule and my terrible memory! Seize the day! (1st Mafia game!) <3 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=16#307 ##Vote ToleranceNA | ||
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On August 08 2012 03:07 Dandel Ion wrote: If there is anything, could the coaches say if there were some obvious tells, or opportunities to apply pressure were missed by town? I know it was barely 2 days, so I don't actually expect anything big to be in there, but just in case, I'd like to know The only thing that really stands out to me as far as mafia tells is mkfuba's quick 180 after his Promethelax case. Even then, that would have been pretty hard to catch until town had some allignment info. | ||
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I'd like to know what the next things mean : Fluff, OMGUS, WIFOM, FOS ! Fluff - posting nothing worthwhile OMGUS - stands for "Oh My God U Suck", and is mafia shorthand for voting someone because "they suck". WIFOM - http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM FOS - "Finger Of Suspicion", a symbolic "i am suspicions of you" | ||
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On August 08 2012 10:21 Blazinghand wrote: I think the concern is trivial, though Marv may disagree lol Sooo what exatly happened with iamperfect btw? | ||
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I'll be travelling for most of either tomorrow or the next day (apartment hunting) so my activity will be lacking for atleast one 24hour chunk of time. | ||
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Now let's revisit the policy-talk from last game: On August 06 2012 08:06 Hapahauli wrote: ‘Sup town! Much to my delight, I’ve rolled Vanilla Townie this game – I hope strength in numbers shall prevail this game! I ended up rolling mafia-goon in the last newbie game I played (Newbie Mafia XXI), and two members of my scumteam got away with blatant-lurking for days because of poor D1 discussion and a disorganized town. Our scumteam ended up winning that game in large part to this lack of productive discussion. So to get things moving in a good direction, howabout some policy talk? I propose the following:
Even though we weren't on the right track on D1 as far as suspicions go, I felt that the town had a great atmosphere. We were providing analysis and posting, and through this, I was able to establish some strong townie reads on D1. I feel that establishing the same policy would be a great start to the scum-hunt in this do-over game! Thoughts? | ||
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For the new folks, perhaps you can provide your opinions on the policy above, and/or any other insight you may have on D1. | ||
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On August 09 2012 09:02 Dandel Ion wrote: As for policy, I'd like to policy-lynch YourHarry. I call it the "YourHarry-lynch-policy". The goal is to lynch YourHarry. I surprisingly agree with this - if town Harry behaves scummy, and if scum Harry behaves scummy, we might be better of without him no? + Show Spoiler + I'm joking of course, but given how much thought YourHarry put into his scum play for the last two days, I have high expectations of him if he's town. I don't really think we neeeeeeeeeeed to go over too much of the policy stuff. Just get the thoughts from the 3 new guys (Axero, Kronen, Goodkarma). Anybody else can add what they want to add, but the policy shit should be in their filters already. Yeah I'm more or less hoping to hear some policy talk from the newer guys, but I'm also interested in hearing how effective people thought the Day 1 policy was. | ||
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On August 09 2012 09:46 Lvdr wrote: D1 went well I think. We got a good amout of information that would have been useful later on. [b]On that note, sideni is mafia because he doesn't fit his town meta!![b/] How so? Care to elaborate? | ||
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On August 09 2012 09:56 Lvdr wrote: He's not llurking 0.0 Anything else aside from the early-game activity? Or perhaps you're mafia trying to start some idle suspicion? | ||
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On August 09 2012 10:04 Axero wrote: I agree with Hapa's policy of not blindly lynching due to high activity. I'm torn on the lurking policy, just because I'd feel bad if I accidentally voted for a fellow townie; but we must do what we must do to save our homes! I'm certainly not suggesting picking a random lurker, rather, focusing on lurkers as targets of early game pressure. I'd be very happy taking lynching a scummy lurker D1 - at best, we lynch a mafia, and at worst, we lynch someone who isn't contributing to the scumhunt (barring a strong scum-read on another type of player of course). Thoughts? @ GoodKarma: Welcome from observer-land! On August 09 2012 10:08 goodkarma wrote: Regarding the proposed "lurker lynch" policy: So here's some policy talk from one of the "new guys." Day one lurker lynching is a policy I used to favor, but no longer. It can really limit our ability to put pressure on people now, meaning less information later. Day one may feel useless, as from what I've seen of the statistics it's easy to mislynch day one. But the information gained today from others can be referenced all game. Behavioral patterns become important as the game progresses, and that extra day of information gained from pressuring early is priceless. As I mentioned to Axero, I'm more suggesting a policy of pressuring lurkers aggressively from the start. Furthermore, we've seen several vocal townies in recent games get lynched for being controversial (Golbat and Obvious in Newbie XXI and XXII) - keeping our focus away from extremely active players will help us avoid horrible mislynches like those (barring a scum-sclip from an active player of course). I don't think this policy will narrow our focus in a negative way. Thoughts? | ||
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On August 09 2012 10:18 YourHarry wrote: Guys, just because I act erratically in the beginning doesn't mean it's scummy. I just like getting reactions, OK? Is this allowed? I think after the last game, if I show an inkling of trolling, I would be policy lynched. Do I have a permission to be myself without having to worry about being lynched? Thanks much <3 Do whatever you need to do to scumhunt if you're town! If you're scum, plz roleclaim. No one's going to policy lynch you - I will say I do expect more from you in this game than in XXI, given your thoughtfulness as mafia in the D1 that never existed. Go git 'em! | ||
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Thanks for your trust, but keep in mind that most players in-game had a strong town read on me in XXI... and we all know what happened out of that! I'll be sure to make my townie motives clear throughout the game =) @Mkfuba07: Hello again! Your games as scum can be so informative/instructive to your townie play; be sure to remember your mentality as scum - mentality is the most important part in making reads on players. I look forward to hearing more of your thoughts, and I certainly hope we're on the same team this time around! | ||
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On August 09 2012 11:06 Lvdr wrote: Both hapa and yh are mafia or both are town? Is Lvdr town or mafia? Is Lvdr creating discussion or sowing suspicion? Also, is Lvdr still intoxicated? | ||
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To get some conversation going, what are your thoughts on the policy I quoted in the first post? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=21#409 Also, were you following the game at all before we reset? If so, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the first day of play @ Goodkarma: That sounds fair - are there any policies/directions on Day 1 that you find effective? | ||
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On August 09 2012 11:18 YourHarry wrote: Also. Town motives can be faked and scum motives could be made inconspicuous or accidental, with right choice of words and such. Calgar, agreed? Of course, though the longer games go on and/or the more that scum have to post, town-motive becomes near impossible to fake. Take my actions on the last day of XXI - me and Speedbump's combined aggression against Calgar made no sense from a town perspective, and had the game been more active, that should have been enough to get me lynched. What in particular about Calgar are you talking about? | ||
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On August 09 2012 11:27 Kronen wrote: I'm of a mind that while it may not be good policy meta-wise to lynch for first night inactivity, if someone is inactive on the first night there's a strong possibility their level of activity will wain or at least be inconsistent... Just newb speaking though. Can you clarify this? I'm not sure exactly what you mean here. There is someone earlier however that mentioned that they will be inactive first night right? I forget who posted that. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=21#405 If you mean this post, that was me - I'll be gone either tomorrow or Friday (likely Friday) for some apartment hunting. I should be able to get some internet at somewhere and place an informative vote, but don't expect large levels of activity from me. Also, make sure you read through filters - this game is about analysis and critical reading. It doesn't look good for you if you're unwilling to look a couple of pages back and find the name of a poster. | ||
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On August 09 2012 11:43 Kronen wrote: I mean that I am a fan of active players and active participation. If someone is inactive on the first night, they will probably be inactive on the following nights. I don't understand the second bit - it's probably true, yes, but what does it have to do with the policy I proposed? Please explain. Your criticism is duly noted. I apologize for being harsh, but it's important that every town member is willing to contribute good analysis and think critically about suspicions and ideas. It is impossible for town to win if townies aren't willing to read and think. | ||
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@ Kronen - Thanks for clearing that up. Keep on reading the guides and thread, and I'm looking forward hearing any cases/suspicions you may have tomorrow @ Lvdr - Drunkenness is not a scumslip, but your play has been pretty scummy so far. I understand trying to post random stuff to get discussion going, but your posting in the first few hours has been pretty rediculous. | ||
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On August 09 2012 13:03 Lvdr wrote: More plausible than yh then? ...what do you even mean here? Whether you are more plausible scum than YH? Of course it's too early to tell, but you're not helping your cause by posting those one-liners. But tell me - what about your play so far hasn't been scummy? | ||
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I get the feeling no one read my spoiler quote T_T http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=21#415 "I'm joking of course, but given how much thought YourHarry put into his scum play for the last two days, I have high expectations of him if he's town. " Looks like YH picked up on it and retraced it though, so all is back to normal. Getting to the recent wave of posting in a bit. | ||
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@ Mkfuba: Good case, and much much better than the one on Prom from yetserday. I had the same thoughts on the "both mafia or both town" quote - it isn't how townies normally think. He doesn't consider the possibility of one of us being scum or one being town, etc. For now, FOS Lvdr. He's behaving differently than yesterday in a scummy way. I won't yet cast my vote, because there is a possibility that he's just drunk. | ||
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On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote: That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie. It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy. Just my two cents. (Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) This post makes absolutely no sense. Your first "theory": YH is town and I am mafia. Somehow, my exchange with YourHarry is a ploy for me to get YH lynched. Hell I haven't pointed any suspicion at YH! How exactly does this theory make sense? Your second "theory": Mafia do not seriously bus each other early in Day 1. Maybe a mini-argument to distance themselves from one another (like the mini-argument between mkfuba and YourHarry early on D1 last game), but never any serious suspicion Hell I don't understand what part of our exchange constitutes any suspicion at all. You have to explain this more Axero. Wild theories won't get you anywhere, especially if they suggest that you haven't read or analyzed the early-game exchange between me and YourHarry. | ||
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Well surely there's something you can comment on after a few pages of posting. Does any behavior stick out to you? Any posters/posts that seem scummy/townie/etc? | ||
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FOS iamperfection I feel like you've been going with the flow so far this game. You haven't started any original suspicions and you've been alternating between criticisms of players and piggybacking off other player's suspicions. This is completely different from your town play in the aborted game, where you tunneled YH from day 1. First you rail on YourHarry a bit... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#428 Then on Lvdr... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#435 Then on me on "changing my stance," whilst ignoring my joke spoiler... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=23#459 Then an FOS on Lvdr after mkfuba posted a large analysis... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=24#479 Then on Promethelax... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=25#481 Thing is, in all of these posts, he keeps casting idle suspicion on players. Furthemore, he's following the flow of the thread and never initiating cases/questions, simply following up on the questioning/suspicions of other players. | ||
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Hapa: I'm glad you are here so that I'll have someone to talk to. Although given that you and I are both known for active scum play I won't be able to get reads out of your activity I look forward to getting reads from your play. What is your opinion of Dandel? Nothing much to say on Dandel, as he still hasn't done anything. Like really - he's posted nothing of substance 24 hours into the day. I'm naturally suspicious of people who do not stick their neck out, but I have no grounds to FOS him or anything like that. For now, I'll stick with my suspicions against iamperfection that I recently posted. | ||
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On August 10 2012 06:05 Lvdr wrote: @hapa I don't think the case you're making against iamperfection is really scummy. link 1: iam clearly does not trust yh, especially given what happened last game. understandable. link 2: he is looking for more information. yes he doesn't offer an opinion, but it seems like a null read, not scummy. link3: as you said he missed the joke spoiler. null read. link 4: confirms that he missed the spoiler mentioned in link 3 and shows a proportional amount of suspicion on me. reads town to me because mafia have no interest in encouraging me to mount a good defense. link 5: follows his established pattern of encouraging others to put out more information and reads. This reads as a very flimsy case and even a bit of a reach. My suspicions don't deal with the individual content of the posts themselves rather the whole package. Iamperfection really hasn't stuck his neck out and has been questioning people who are under suspicion. He's asking questions and whatnot, but he's not taking strong opinions unless others take them (his FOS against you). So while his individual posts are excusable, I find them suspicious in context. What say you? | ||
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[QUOTE]On August 10 2012 07:02 Lvdr wrote: @hapa - What do you think of my analysis of link 4 in your case? I agree that iamperfection hasn't offered much of his own, but his play has really mirrored your own in terms of questioning many people. For my reference: [Quote]link 4: confirms that he missed the spoiler mentioned in link 3 and shows a proportional amount of suspicion on me. reads town to me because mafia have no interest in encouraging me to mount a good defense.[/Quote] Again, I think you're missing my point. He only places his FOS after two players have done so. As far as his play mirroring my own - he is questioning, but again, his questions follow the other townie's suspicions. But I'm curious about the conclusion you draw from his post; how does it read town? He takes an awfully diplomatic tone toward someone he is suspecting of being mafia no? | ||
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I'm pretty satisfied with Lvdr's activity and defense so far. In addition, he's going after lurkers (Sideni) and is actively defending himself. I see enough similarities with his town play from the aborted game to give him the benefit of the doubt. As for iamperfection, I think I'm falling victim to confirmation bias on him again. My case was based around his "going with the flow," and his questioning of Promethelax kinda destroys that bit of it. I'm satisfied enough with his activity to lay down my case. However, I do find two players very suspicious at the moment: FOS Axero and GoodKarma Both players have been pretty lurky so far; Axero with 2 posts and GK with 3. Furthermore, neither has contributed anything significant to the discussion. GoodKarma's three posts have only to do with disagreeing with the lurker policy. He hasn't done anything else while everyone in the town is actively discussing/throwing around suspicions. I find his lack of posting very unsettling. Axero has two posts, one fluff/introductory post, and another that idly points suspicion: On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote: That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie. It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy. Just my two cents. (Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=24#478 As I pointed out in the link above, his ideas are fairly illogical, and it reads to me like a useless-post designed only to point suspicion. | ||
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On August 10 2012 09:28 Axero wrote: FOS Hapa I've actually been pretty busy since the game started, but no I haven't made many posts. I'm sorting out my feelings on people and as this is my first game it's taking me some time to get used to it. However you are very quick to point to several people. The feeling I'm getting from you is that you're only being active to avoid suspicion. Seems like you're over doing it a little bit. Might be a snap reaction but it is how I feel at this point in the game. So I'm suspicious because I'm... not acting suspicious? I wish I could reply to your suspicions, but they're largely based on your gut feelings. You're also rather quick to respond after lurking for so long the second I call you out. Care to reply to my suspicions against you? Why have you been lurking? Also, I want some answers to my questions in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=24#478 | ||
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On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote: Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) So let me get this straight - your strategy going in to this game was to lurk until your name was mentioned, then FOS the guy who called you out for lurking? As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions. In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. Well hearing your "strategy" - you better have some damn good explanations for your play so far. | ||
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On August 10 2012 09:56 Axero wrote: Haha, no I wasn't planning on lurking. I was actually going to go ahead with my plans without checking the forum at all, but someone coaching me suggested i still check. Your Quicktopic coach told you to check the thread? | ||
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On August 10 2012 12:25 Shady Sands wrote: I'm getting echoes of Golbat from XXII. Similarly bad play D1, resulted in a lynch of the Vigi. Since it's a newbie game, I think we should be a little nicer on the guy. It might be better for all of us. I obs'd XXII, and Golbat wasn't NEAR this lurky D1. Golbat was fairly active (~1.5 page filter) and didn't play as bad as you suggest. Axero on the other hand has demonstrated anti-town mentality so far. He also mentioned he'd respond to my earlier post after he was finished with his DOTA game, but never got around to it. | ||
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Since you're around, what do you think about GoodKarma's lurkiness? You were in XXII, and I'm curious what you think of it based off of GK's meta? | ||
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On August 10 2012 13:12 Lvdr wrote: There is also a similarity between Axero and Golbat last game: saying you have things to post without posting them. Tough to read though: as always bad play is not necessarily scummy play. If that was the basis of my suspicion on Axero alone, I'd agree. However, there's a couple of more things that concern me: 1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#423 In Axero's first post, he's very excited and happy to play the game: ... then all of a sudden he lurk lurk lurks, and openly claims to have not been reading the thread. 2) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=23#460 He posts the above, which is filled with pretty terrible logic (mafia bussing people early on day 1, lol?) 3) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#535 He posts an FOS on me based on vague logic and gut-feeling. 4) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=27#538 In this post, he uses newbiness as an excuse for not checking the thread and promises to respond after his DOTA game. So yeah, that's my case on him so far, and I just convinced myself to vote for him. If you'd like this in Wall-O-Text format, let me know. I think it's easier to read/understand for most people this way though. ##Vote Axero | ||
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On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote: Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions. In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit. The excuse is the thing that really gets to me. He's not just saying that he's a newb (normal/badtownie tell) - he's using it as an excuse for not having read the thread, not having provided analysis, and general lurkiness. I find this scummy. | ||
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What do you think about my case on Axero? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#565 | ||
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We're on the same page about Axero, but I have some questions about your case on Sideni: One scum-read I currently have on him is mistaking the name of the person who was getting married (Kronen). This was mentioned before, but I feel it is an important point. If you're struggling to read and write in English to the point of scrutinizing every word, how can you make this kind of mistake of names? This fits the profile of an unconcerned scum combing the thread before posting. It may not seem big, but in my last game (NMM XXII) the last scum we caught made this same mistake. I was obs'ing that game, and if the "last scum" you're talking about is Alan, I don't get what you mean. This just seems wrong to me. As for the other stuff (fluff, trying to hard to be pro town, etc), I consider them null-reads for now. | ||
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On August 10 2012 12:30 YourHarry wrote: ##Unvote Is it acceptable to take into consideration personal coaching experiences to speculate players that are being coached? Some good discussion going. I also want to point out the lurkers in this game. If you are not going to be active, please replace out. Axero, if you are going too busy to invest considerable efforts in this game, please replace out. Goodkarma, put more thoughts into your post. And not having anything to add to the discussion is not an excuse. There are always rooms for contribution. Keep reading, repeatedly if needed, until you do. I will be back in a bit to post my thoughts. Also would really like the moderator to allow speculation on who is being coached. As far as I am concerned, scums can lie about their coaching situation, so anything should go. I don't see why it isn't allowed, but I doubt you can build a convincing argument based on your views of someone getting coached. It may convince you, but I can't see you convincing other members of the town without having had the same coaching experiences as you. Also, now that you've unvoted mkfuba, who are you suspicious of? Any strong scumreads so far? | ||
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Now on to other matters: @ YourHarry: [u]Regarding other players being "coached" - to be honest, that's something I really try not to pay attention to. Someone looking "coached" can be a mafia or town tell as far as I'm concerned. Regarding your response to my Axero case - On point 4, you mention that citing newbiness isn't always a mafia excuse. Alone, I agree. However, he uses it as an excuse for not having read the thread or posted analysis. This is the bit that I find scummy. Regarding your case against mkfuba - I really don't get it. What part about that makes mkfuba scummy? As far as I can tell, the case against Lvdr was good, and ample reasoning was given for questioning your town read. @ ShadySands Regarding Lvdr What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far. The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game. [/b] | ||
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@ ShadySands Regarding Lvdr What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far. Policy may be a basis to suspect someone, but isn't a basis to lynch someone. He hasn't been actively hunting scummy behavior as I would have liked. I find Axero more suspicious for now though. The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game. | ||
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On August 10 2012 19:27 Axero wrote: I should have taken more time to read through the posts and anaylize them. Bad posts on my part. Now to the brunt of it. Even with spoiling that you're joking, you're still putting the idea in people's heads, whether serious or not. Oh come on... if I wanted to really put that idea in people's heads, why would I include the joke spoiler? I didn't assume that people wouldn't read it. Why do Mafia not bus eachother Day 1? It seems that doing so early would set one of the mafia up in a great spot to lead the game in a direction that highly favors them. I may just be missing the point to not doing so. My thinking when bringing this up is that most of you were in a game together already and if you rolled scum this game, you would still need to match your previous activity, because everyone expects you to play this way. What better way to stay active and make a case against someone else than this? If I'm just completely missing something let me know, but this seems pretty logical from my point of view. The first, is that I didn't build a case against YourHarry. Therefore the talk about bussing is irrelevant, since I didn't suspect him of anything! The second, is that "bussing" implies serious suspicion and really actively trying to get someone lynched (hence "throwing someone under the bus"). That just doesn't happen in mafia games unless someone makes a huge Day 1 blunder. Sure mafia sometimes throw out suspicious at each other sometimes, but it is rarely significant unless it's sure their parter were to be lynched. After all, it's a great way to build town cred for one person, but there's generally no way the second person (who's also playing the game for enjoyment) would agree to such a thing unless he/she has a high chance of getting lynched. You're suspicious to me Hapa, that hasn't changed as of yet, regardless of lack of evidence. Find some evidence, find some motive, or hell find something. Do you think that you're helping the town by stating suspicious without reasoning? I don't care who your suspicions are, but you better provide reasoning if you do so. As far as who else I think is scum... I have no personal reads on anyone else yet, but much of the arguements against lvdr I find myself agreeing with. And who I think can be cleared as town, I find myself agreeing with much of what mkfuba07 is saying, so as of right now I'm saying town for him. YourHarry, even though you're against Hapa as far as me being scum goes, I still can't really place you as town in my book quite yet, but you're closer to town than scum right now. This post from iamperfection is really what is making me a bit cautious. I'll try to start adding good analysis. What is it about that post from iamperfection - does it make you additionally suspicious of Lvdr? You have to explain these things. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#565 I posted a case against you here, and I'd like to hear your defense. You've answered points 2 and 3, but I'd like to hear your defense vs. points 1 and 4. | ||
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Since we're quickly approaching the lynch deadline, please start stating your primary suspicion(s) and thinking about casting your votes. There are several players who don't have any strong stances, and that's unacceptable this close to the lynch. | ||
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At the time I called you a lurker, you only had two posts. Even now, your post count isn't particularly high in comparison to the more active players. I'm most concerned about this though: On August 10 2012 13:21 Hapahauli wrote:1) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=22#423 In Axero's first post, he's very excited and happy to play the game: ... then all of a sudden he lurk lurk lurks, and openly claims to have not been reading the thread. You only had two posts 24 hours into the game, which is suspicious given your first post. | ||
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On August 11 2012 01:36 Axero wrote: @ Hapa It's a fast paced game. I'm still excited to play, even if you can't see it in my posts. Learning as I go.Fluff: (Congrats on the wedding btw) But that's the thing here - you're excited to play... then you didn't read the thread and had to have your friend/coach remind you to read? This makes no sense. Btw, you should congratulate Konen - he's the one getting married. I'm the one who was supposed to look for apartments today until my car got recalled =/ | ||
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On August 11 2012 01:17 Axero wrote: @ Hapa ... Why did you decide this was the breaking point to which I could no longer be a town, in your eyes? If I had mentioned me having other plans during the night earlier (like you and a couple others did), would this have changed your view toward the statement, or would you still feel the same way? The only evidence you have on me not being town is some bad logic posts and excuse posts, that a few others have disagreed with you on. As for Day 1 lynching, your activity isn't a good giveaway and my suspicions remain a gut feeling. Wanted to comment on this: Making excuses for inactivity/lack of analysis is a mafia tell. Playing the n00b card is a pretty common one. This was the "breaking point." If you had mentioned other plans, I'd treat it as a null tell - I'd just take your inactivity for face value and still be suspicious of you. It seems silly to argue this since it didn't happen though. Also, I stated my "plans" before the game started and before I knew my allignment. Furthermore, I haven't seen any other players in-game state excuses for current inactivity. Kronen mentioned a marriage, but that's in the future... not now. I don't consider my logic bad, and no player so far has outright disagreed with me on my read. A few are hesitant about lynching you given their other reads, but I bet every player in this game would see you as suspicious to whatever degree. | ||
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As of now, I'm reading through Sideni's case, and I'll post my thoughts within the hour | ||
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@ Sideni - what would happen to your case if... say Lvdr flipped green at one point in the game? Your case basically assumes that Lvdr is mafia, and based on Dandel Ion's interactions with Lvdr, you voted on Lvdr. Why aren't you voting Lvdr based on this? | ||
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Sideni just seems too sure that Lvdr is scum. If Sideni agrees so much with mkfuba's case and thinks it's so good, why isn't Sideni voting for Lvdr? Specifically, why Sideni going ahead and voting for Dandel Ion when he thinks Lvdr is scum, and that Dandel Ion's interactions with "scum-Lvdr" make him suspicious? Can anyone give me a townie motive? 'Cause I don't see one. | ||
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On August 11 2012 04:07 Dandel Ion wrote: @Hapahauli: What about it now you read it? I posted my thoughts already: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=31#615 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=31#617 The case is pretty bad. Like really bad. I'll have to do some thinking on whether or not it's scum motive or not though: bad cases aren't necessarily mafia-motivated. At the moment, it's my gut feeling that Sideni is a bad townie. Sideni has been pretty active, and despite the "fluffiness" of his posting, they read to me as genuine attempts to contribute. Secondly, I don't understand why Sideni (as mafia) would go after Dandel Ion after largely agreeing with mkfuba's case on Lvdr. I feel that hypothetical mafia-Sideni would have sheeped on Lvdr. So for the moment, I'm sticking with my vote on Axero. I've made my previous case on him clear, and he's sheeped into voting for Lvdr. I think he's the best lynch, but I have much more thinking to do over the next few hours. | ||
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Go with me a bit here: If Axero was town, wouldn't he be a REALLY EASY MISLYNCH FOR MAFIA? Why has NO ONE voted for him? I'm inclined to think that his mafia buddies are covering for him! | ||
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On August 11 2012 04:37 iamperfection wrote: Your so called case on axerro boils down to one line to me. What? What about the rest of my case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#565 What about the rest of that isn't valid? You have to think of like this if he is mafia his plan was to refrence coaching as a means for his defense. I find this unlikely. I am more inclined to believe that this statement was truth and if he was away there was only one way he would recieve notification from a coach. He was pm'ed and i think this statement after he received another pm after being scolded for refrencing coaching. Thats what determines it for me. There's nothing in the rules against referencing coaching. I confirmed this with one of the hosts this game. | ||
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On August 11 2012 04:58 Axero wrote: @Sideni I don't really care if people vote for me or not, go for it if you feel its your best move. I'm still going to be looking at other people, and at the moment mkfuba07 is one of the ones standing out the most to me. What about Lvdr? Did you have your vote on him? | ||
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On August 11 2012 05:02 Axero wrote: I do at the moment, but I'm starting to reconsider. At the end of the day if discussion on mkfuba07 doesnt start between everyone, my one vote isn't going to mean anything if I decide to change. The only way townies have power is together. This is majority lynch. Every vote counts - especially since we have to secure 7 votes on one player by the end of the day. | ||
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On August 11 2012 05:14 Dandel Ion wrote: So if Axero just voted on you instead of FoS'ing you, and then went afk for the rest of day 1, you wouldn't have a problem with him? How the hell did you go and reason that one? If Axero managed to write a decent case on me and vote me, I wouldn't be suspicious of him. | ||
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Hell he pretty clearly hasn't been reading the thread and has been pushing uninformed points. You take a lot of contention with this with Sideni, but for some reason, you ignore all the instances that Axero does: 1) Axero calls the interaction between me and YourHarry some sort of "bussing" strategy when its clear that no suspicions were flying between us. 2) Axero thought I was getting married (just like Sideni) 3) Axero has openly admitted not reading the thread. | ||
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On August 11 2012 05:29 Axero wrote: Kind of like you just did? @ Hapa 1) Since when did bad logic = scum? 2) Mistake on fluff = scum? 3) Context tends to help. You dwell so bad. 1) Bad logic in context of scummy play is scummy. Again, you reference bussing in the conversation between me and YourHarry when there was nothing involving suspicion. You didn't read the conversation and casted idle suspicion - that's scummy. 2) That's more to point out to Dandel Ion how he's holding you to different standards than Sideni 3) On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote: Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game ) ... Haha, no I wasn't planning on lurking. I was actually going to go ahead with my plans without checking the forum at all, but someone coaching me suggested i still check. Context. Okay, perhaps "openly admitting not reading" was severe, but anti-town mentality is still on display here. Not wanting to discuss, and planning not to check the forum at all? You've commented on this, so I won't dwell on it longer - I just don't find your explanation sufficient. | ||
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On August 11 2012 05:35 iamperfection wrote: Get that wifom shit out of here. I know almost everthing can be wifom but come on. Funny thing is, ge isn't "going after" me. He's just casting idle "gut-feeling" suspicion on me. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=29#580 I replied to it here. I highly doubt your case will get any traction given the standing cases on Sideni and Lvdr - consider switching your vote at this point. | ||
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His "ragequit" for the night gives me a bad-townie read. I still find his actions slightly scummy, but given that no one's following me on his lynch, and that we need 7 for a majority lynch (prplhz said 6, but I think he got this wrong), I'll most likely switch my vote toward one of the more popular candidates. | ||
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On August 11 2012 05:56 Dandel Ion wrote: Meh I post it, Hapahauli unvotes. Yours is the current Yeah sorry for the snipe timing =P | ||
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On August 11 2012 06:04 Sideni wrote: Reading through Mkfuba's filter. Please, someone, help me build a case for him ... I really don't know who to vote for anymore =/ Help you build a case for a player who's not suspicious? No thanks. ##Vote Sideni | ||
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It takes #/2 rounded up votes to lynch somebody. In case of a tie, the person who got there first gets the prize. From OP | ||
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On August 11 2012 06:34 Sideni wrote: Took 10 minutes to eat a bit. I came back, knowing that people wouldn't like that I left ... I want to ask you guys a question. If you lynch me (looks like it's what is going to happen) (Note : I'm Vanilla Town. I'm not even joking, I'm just bad --> first time claiming being noob) Well, what will you get of that mislynch ? What will happen after I die ? No information at all because I'm currently not decided !!! I can't just choose someone else right off the bat after this huge ass arguement with Dandel ! As for now, I'm looking at Hapahauli's case on Axero ! Why did you unvote Lvdr originally? I had thought you found him incredibly suspicious from our exchange about your case earlier. | ||
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I said earlier that I thought you and Sideni were bad-townie reads for me - hence my earlier vote on Axero. Sideni's bit about "help me build a case on mkfuba" changed that, though the response so far has been pretty genuine on Sideni's part. I'm waiting to hear more from Sideni. If anyone wants to start listening to me about Axero though, I sure wouldn't mind. | ||
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On August 11 2012 06:54 Dandel Ion wrote: Can we just lynch a lurker now? Shady Sands preferrably, Axero is also acceptable I don't think we're on the right track right now I completely agree with you. Something's really really wrong here. Axero is suspicious for the reasons I've mentioned previously, but even his "ragequit" from the thread for the night seemed townie-ish. I'm a bit suspicious of GoodKarma - he's lurked, yet popped into the thread twice to tunnel suspicion on players (Sideni and Axero) all game. He hasn't contributed much, and I wouldn't mind getting a vote on GK going. | ||
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Has posted on policy, and has been tunneling suspicion on Axero and Sideni. Neither of his posts on Axero/Sideni bring up any new information either. | ||
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On August 11 2012 07:13 Lvdr wrote: ## Unvote Kronen has been pretty lurky as well. goodkarma hasn't been very active, but this post made me think slight pro town coming immediately AFTER a long set of analysis by GK. The post stamps are identical. Shady got Sniped by GK there. I consider it a null-tell. | ||
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Reactions make me think he's bad bad bad town. Like Lvdr and Dandel Ion, I think we're making a huge mistake here. | ||
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Possible Lynch Tarets GoodKarma - hasn't stuck his neck out, has played semi-lurky, and has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni. It's his lack of involvement in this game that I find strange. Townies are naturally suspicious of several people and constantly switch suspicions (unless emotional). GoodKarma has played suspiciously "clean," and I think he could be mafia tunneling suspicion on two easy targets. Axero - his "ragequit" gives me a slight townie read, but I find his other behavior suspicious. I've made my views clear. Promethelax - Comes in, points a lot of fingers, picks a fight with Dandel Ion, then leaves. Call it a gut feeling, but I find his behavior strange. | ||
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On August 11 2012 07:26 Lvdr wrote: YH has also been conspicuously absent recently. on Prome: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624 I find this to be a high quality post. Slight townie read. I actually had the opposite feeling here. He walks in, critiques a bunch of people, votes Sideni, and walks out. Either way, my gut feeling says GoodKarma - his play has been way too clean. Suspiciously clean in a pretty batshit crazy Day 1. | ||
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##Vote GoodKarma | ||
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Sideni and Lvdr are BAAAD townies! GoodKarma has not stuck his neck out, has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni (easy targets), he hasn't made an original case or provided original analysis, and his play has been waaaaay too clean so far - Day 1 has been INSANE, there's no way people should be this clean! | ||
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@ Kronen mkfuba, and whoever else is around: Please vote for GoodKarma! That is all. | ||
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On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote: I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? Basically, he's been lurking, he hasn't contributed any original analysis, and he's tunneled suspicion on Axero/Sideni. He's taken safe positions while never sticking his neck out. Especially in light of how insane D1 has been, I find this strange. TBH, I'm just incredibly unsatisfied with the current lynch candidates (Sideni and Lvdr) - I think they're bad townies. | ||
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On August 11 2012 07:49 Shady Sands wrote: What I find suspicious is how you started a GK lynch train less than an hour before the lynch deadline, because this was the best way to avoid a "no-lynch". This just doesn't make sense to me. I'm still looking through GK's filter. I'm probably not going to switch my vote from Lvdr, since I don't like being forced to switch votes so soon before a deadline. Btw, I take full responsibility for the GK train. Whatever the result may be, we probalby just got a SHIT TON of information out of the actions over the last hour. | ||
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FUCK YEAHHHHHHHHH YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! | ||
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Secondly, we have a shitload of confirmed townies after the events of the day. Thirdly, I request a medic save given my actions yesterday. That is all for now, more coming tonight or tomorrow. | ||
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Congrats on an awesome lynch! Going from a mislynch to lynching the freggin' godfather in 45 minutes is awesome-sauce. We got such a crazy amount of information from the lynch, and I feel safe to say that a couple of players have been basically confirmed townie. Before I start, a couple of observations:
STRONG Townies! (95%+) Sideni - GK voted for Sideni in a situation where the Sideni bandwagon was starting to become strong. Furthermore, GK was tunneling Sideni from the beginning (when suspicion on Sideni was rather weak) GK's vote then subsequent lurk confirms Sideni as town, as there's no way mafia would take that kind of risk in the early game. Lvdr - Lvdr was a huge player behind the GK lynch. Lvdr also is the first to cast a vote on GoodKarma. This should speak for itself - if Lvdr knew GK was godfather, he would have pushed to lynch another of the players I had suggested (Axero for example). iamperfection - Iamperfection voted for GK when it still wasn't clear the lynch would come together (he was vote #4). Furthermore, the following post is a strong town-tell to me: iamperfection could have EASILY lurked and not mentioned his presence. Instead, he declared himself availible and casted a vote. I can't see mafia doing this. I'll go over and see if I can find any more confirmed townies or people I think are town. Scumreads to follow as well | ||
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Note, none of these players are confirmed by any means, there are just people I feel are likely town Kronen - Kronen was the 6th and securing lynch vote for GoodKarma. While I won't rule out the possibility of a bus vote, given how sudden the lynch was on GK, I find it hard to believe that mafia could be that decisive in that situation. ShadySands - Even though he's been slighly lurky, his play has been noticably different from his mafia play in day 0.5. Furthermore, his vote on Lvdr is something I don't feel mafia would do. He draws attention to himself too much near the lynch deadline. My read here is much weaker than the one on Kronen - consider it a "gut feeling" | ||
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YourHarry - He still hasn't done jack. His case on mkfuba was pretty bad, and it feels to me like he's playing without information this game (as opposed to last game where he made a pretty coherent case on Lvdr). Gut-feeling he's bad town, but no substance behind this one. mkfuba - Had a pretty nice case early D1 agaist lvdr, but was majorly lurky toward the lynch deadline. I give him some townie points for his case, and minus a couple for his lurkiness. | ||
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I forgot to put Dandel Ion under confirmed townies! He helped push the GK lynch, and this quote is mega-townie to me: On August 11 2012 07:28 Dandel Ion wrote: I don't think i can comment on Promethelax, I'm rather angry at him after all. I certainly wouldn't miss him, but a mislynch is a mislynch, and I don't feel like I can gauge if he's scum or not. I'd be happy to bus him though. Axero was never that strong a scum read to me - though you can never be sure. I have stated previously that I think you are biased against him, Hapa. I'd rather lynch him, than have a no-lynch, but he's not my priority. Goodkarma would be your "safe" pick for a lynch. He didn't post anything scummy in itself, but then again, he didn't post in the first place. Might be our best chance Given 3 options, he picks the godfather. Mafia wouldn't do that. | ||
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I find this post incredibly scummy: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=32#624 He nitpicks and criticizes a lot of people, followed by a vote on Sideni. Near the lynch deadline, Promethelax picks a mini-fight with Dandel Ion when Dandel Ion BACKS OFF SIDENI, and severely tunnels Sideni until he leaves for work. #1 scumread for sure here. | ||
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@ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions. TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above! | ||
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On August 11 2012 13:12 YourHarry wrote: I would like to sheep you on Promothelax. But why do you think my case on mkfuba is bad? I still think he's prob scum along with Promothelax. Please don't sheep - explain why you think Promethelax is scummy. I also want to hear your reads on the other players and why you think Promethelax is the most scummy. In addition, I expressed my strong pro-town sentiments toward the three most accused players on Day 1 - Lvdr, sideni, and Axero. That must count for something. This is a point against you IMO - you were one of the only players to think they were pro town. Certainly you should have been somewhat suspicious of any of them at one point during day 1? | ||
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As for why I thought your case against Mkfuba was bad... you vote mkfuba because you don't believe his answer, and you point out a lot of pro-town behavior in your accusation. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=43#844 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=43#847 Anything wrong with my logic here? | ||
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@ Kronen - please post your thoughts on the other players (ShadySands, YourHarry, mkfuba, Promethelax) before the end of the night. That is all. | ||
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For your convenience, GoodKarma got lynched. Kronen posted a nice summary of things here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=42#840 ...and you are the #1 scumread of several players in the game right now. I ask you to provide your reads: @ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions. TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above! | ||
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Also, scumslip: Town reads are: suck it scum, you won't get extra information out of me No town reads because you don't want to give scum information they already have? Lastly, respond to this or I'll vote you the second D2 starts: @ Kronen, mkfuba, YourHarry, Promethelax, and ShadySands - I want to hear your thoughts on the other 4 players before the night is over. No exceptions. TOWN, make sure you hold each and every person on this list accountable for the above! | ||
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Anywho, I'll draw what I can from the post before the night is over. Still waiting on Kronen's thoughts on the players I've mentioned, as well as mkfuba07's thoughts on Promethelax. | ||
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I have four interpretations of Promethelax's Post: 1) Part of me doubts that Promethelax (as hypothetical mafia) would so willingly exonerate a non-confirmed townie by including him in a list with two almost-confirmed townies (me and Dandel Ion). Given Shady's instant FOS against Promethelax after I posted my suspicions, Promethelax could have name-dropped Shady in order to get him as far through the game as possible, "confirming" his scumbuddy as townie. I consider this not likely, but possible 2) Promethelax is just OMGUSing everyone who casted heavy suspicion on him. Shady, Dandel Ion, and I are the three people who've made Promethelax our top scumread. I consider this most likely 3) Promethelax's post is so terrible that he's giving his scumbuddy (i.e Mkfuba) cover to switch suspicion on him. I consider this likely 4) Promethelax's post is a list of NK's. He's planning to NK me or Dandel Ion, and point to "why would I NK someone I'm suspicious of if I was mafia" in defense. I consider this semi-likely | ||
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I wish you all the best of luck surviving the NK! Hope to see you on the other side of the deadline, but if not, I think I've made all my reads known. My scumteam is currently Promethelax and mkfuba07. Please lynch Promethelax before making too many snap judgements about Scum #2 though. | ||
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If you can answer these questions coherently, I'll take you seriously. | ||
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The answer is ShadySands. He's the only guy without serious suspicion on him. Let me go back here: 1) Part of me doubts that Promethelax (as hypothetical mafia) would so willingly exonerate a non-confirmed townie by including him in a list with two almost-confirmed townies (me and Dandel Ion). Given Shady's instant FOS against Promethelax after I posted my suspicions, Promethelax could have name-dropped Shady in order to get him as far through the game as possible, "confirming" his scumbuddy as townie. I consider this not likely, but possible I now consider this THE MOST POSSIBLE and my leading theory. ShadySands and Promethelax scumteam. | ||
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Secondly, I believe there's a good case to be made against ShadySands even if Promethelax doesn't flip red. | ||
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On August 12 2012 09:23 Shady Sands wrote: So you're going to push a lynch on me unless I accuse someone with towncred? Well you suggested that the 3rd scum could be on my "confirmed townie list," and right now, I have no reason to suspect anyone on that list over you. I will push a lynch against you unless you can convince me otherwise. | ||
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On August 12 2012 09:29 Shady Sands wrote: I don't have anyone. But it's not my obligation to come up with a counterlynch if I'm to defend myself from a lynch--that's how OMGUS wars start, and given that I'm already on a suspicion list, why would I help scum by doing that? I simply stated that your logic doesn't make sense, and I'm asking you to come up with a better explanation. Here's the thing--if I'm on the shortlist with Kronen, mkfuba, and YourHarry, why would I make that list even shorter? Your assumption rests on your belief that no one has suspicion on me, which is flat out disproven by numerous posts in the thread itself. So what's your logic? Process of elimination. Of the three people; ShadySands, Mkfuba, and YourHarry, you're the only one that makes sense. I'll build a case on you tomorrow morning. I have no reason to suspect anyone out of those three people in the game. If you give me a reason to suspect someone else - I'm willing to listen. You seem to be strongly indicating that someone on the confirmed townie list is mafia. TELL ME WHO. If you're not willing to scumhunt, please sit quietly and get lynched. | ||
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Cliffnotes: 1) ShadySands was the only resistance against the GK lynch 2) ShadySands early Night 1 Actions 3) Shady Sands does Jack Shit Day 1 4) Shady's Thoughts on Axero 5) Promo/Shady connection Shady Sands Resistance against the GK lynch When Lvdr, Dandel Ion, and I start the effort to lynch GK at the end of Day 1, I posted the below quote as a call to action. On August 11 2012 07:36 Hapahauli wrote: LET's ALL VOTESWITCH TO GOODKARMA Sideni and Lvdr are BAAAD townies! GoodKarma has not stuck his neck out, has tunneled suspicion on Axero and Sideni (easy targets), he hasn't made an original case or provided original analysis, and his play has been waaaaay too clean so far - Day 1 has been INSANE, there's no way people should be this clean! Even without hindsight, the logic is there no? My main point is GK's lack of analysis and sheeping. Yet Shady turns around and posts this: On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote:Wait you guys are doing a last minute pile on GoodKarma because his play is too clean? What? Huh what? He ignores my bolded point and focuses on the least important part of my logic! In addition, Shady Sands is the only force against the GK lynch, and does so in a way that twists my wording and logic. Then he has a sudden change in sentiment: On August 11 2012 07:41 Shady Sands wrote: I'd be willing to do the pile too, but sometime in the next twenty minutes could someone please recap a case on GoodKarma? All of a sudden after objecting to the lynch, he turns around and now is open minded? Shady first twists the case against GK, then keeps his options open. The resistance followed by the sudden flip-flop is scummy behavior. Shady's Early Night 1 Actions On August 11 2012 11:25 Shady Sands wrote: Note that I reconfirmed my vote on you even after people hit the 6 votes necessary to lynch GK. If I was really scum, why would I do that? This post just reeks of OMGUS. That being said, great job town on wagoning the bastard. I'll admit, I thought his posting was similar to his XXII meta (where he was town), so I didn't think he looked that scummy. In terms of confirmed townies, I'm going to say that Hapa is almost for sure confirmed now, since it's very unlikely scum would bus the GF on D1 (at most they would bus a goon.) By the same logic, the first guy to vote for GK, Lvdr, should also be cleared. Hapa, Lvdr, what are your top reads going into D2? Interesting right? He declare two obvious confirmed townies, then asks them a question about who their top reads are? Townies would have taken the opportunity to scumhunt here. ShadySands is "taking the temperature" of the situation - no one has a 2nd scumread, and he doesn't want to scumhunt. He wants to see what the town knows as opposed to scumhunting. On August 11 2012 13:38 Shady Sands wrote: I just read that encryption rules post from Prome. There are three possibilities, which are all plausible: 1) He's scum, trying to fake blue 2) If he hasn't rolled blue before, this could be a legitimate question (although putting it in the open thread is a little wierd) 3) He's a vet trying to bait a NK 1 and 3 are the likeliest--3 being most likely, ironically enough, because scum Prom in XXI was easily much smarter and more discreet with his posts. In this post, Shady Sands soft defends Promethelax despite having an FOS on him. Again, strange, mafia-oriented behavior. I think Shady Sands is bussing Promethelax, more on this later Shady does Jack Shit Day 1 This will be a short section, because Shady literally does nothing Day 1. He's lurky, he doesn't post any cases, and he soft defends a bunch of players under suspicion while tunneling Lvdr. Townies don't think like this. Shady Sands on Axero On August 10 2012 20:38 Shady Sands wrote: I like points 1 and 2. Point 3 is mostly OMGUS and Point 4 is kind of irrelevant. Here's my read on Axero: The guy talks a lot about what scum might or might not do. This doesn't read to me as scum play, but it's not pro-town either, as doing this helps scum plan what to do to look town. My advice to Axero is to shape up his posting. I don't think it deserves a lynch. ... His logic makes no sense. He likes points 1 and 2 (indicating support for Axero's scummy behavior), and then thinks Axero is bad town? This is mafia mentality - townies do not think like this; if a townie agreed with these points, a townie would have cast suspicion on Axero. The Shady/Promethelax Connection NOTE: Do not take this section too seriously unless Promethelax flips red. My other evidence should stand for itself After Shady probes me and Lvdr for scumreads, he immediately FOS's promethelax. I think this is a bussing attempt. In the event of a Shady/Promethelax scumteam, this is their only option to survive - sacrifice Promethelax while putting Shady in the best possible position to mislynch a couple of bad non-confirmed townies. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=45#899 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=47#928 In these two posts, Promethelax mentions me, Dandel Ion, and ShadySands as his top mafia suspects. Two confirmed townies and an unconfirmed townie... interesting right? This plays to the Shady/Promethelax scumteam trying to establish Shady as pro-town as possible so he can survive 3 mislynches. As I mentioned earlier: Part of me doubts that Promethelax (as hypothetical mafia) would so willingly exonerate a non-confirmed townie by including him in a list with two almost-confirmed townies (me and Dandel Ion). Given Shady's instant FOS against Promethelax after I posted my suspicions, Promethelax could have name-dropped Shady in order to get him as far through the game as possible, "confirming" his scumbuddy as townie. ShadySands is mafia. His actions before and after the GK lynch were strange, and he's displaying mafia-mentality. There's also plenty of evidence to suggest the Promethelax/ShadySands scumteam. | ||
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On August 12 2012 08:20 Hapahauli wrote: So humor me Promethelax - How does me bussing GK make sense? Why would I bus the godfather who had zero suspicion on him? Also, why on earth would GK consent to getting bussed given the lack of suspicion on him. If you can answer these questions coherently, I'll take you seriously. @ Promethelax - Respond to this post. If you do not address this post, don't bother responding at all. | ||
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If so, ##Vote Promethelax ##Vote 24-Hour Day | ||
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On August 12 2012 22:03 Dandel Ion wrote: @24-hour-day While the lynch is clear TODAY, I don't know about the next one. Yeah, some people already decided on the third scum, just depending on Prome's scum flip, but I haven't. Maybe it could be easy and we'll get it over with quickly. But we might also miss something. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for today (day 2) to be shortened, but I'm not so sure if I want 24-hour-days permanently. Oh this is JUST for Day 2! Not permanently - we'll definetly need the extra time to find #3. I still think it's Shady. | ||
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... I need to rest at this point, but my quick reads on the other three: YourHarry: His main focus seems to have been telling me I'm too good at being town. He gave me far more pressure than I imagined I'd get from the whole thread on these two posts. His attempt to turn my pro-town plans into evidence of scummy fabrication is annoying, and defending my reads against these attempts is distracting me from other matters, but I can't tell if it's scummy. Kronen: His vote timing, as well as Shady's, send off some alarms in my head. If they were the remainder of the scumteam, then they sure slipped in right at the nick of time. I was working on this line of reasoning when I realized that I wasn't going to be able to keep my eyes open long enough to make it through. I'll flush it out in the morning. Promethelax: The most notable thing about Promethelax to me is how little I've thought about Promethelax. I'll go through his filter when I've rested. It takes me forever to analyze things, and I couldn't start a filter from scratch right now. After I ask him for his opinions on the other non-confirmed players, he gives a bunch of null-reads. Mafia wouldn't post this - in this situation, mafia needs to get as much towncred as possible in light of the information gained on Day 1. Regarding my case on Shady Sands - I think your objections against Night 1 are valid, and can be interpreted otherwise, however, given the context of his play, I find the explanations I gave of his actions very likely. If Promethelax somehow doesn't flip red, Shady Sands would be my top mafia suspect still. I find his behavior near the D1 lynch deadline scummy, and IMO, him "taking the temperature of the town" then immediately FOS'ing a hypothetical townie Promethelax would make him look even worse. | ||
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Regarding GK being "inactive - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=34#667 GoodKarma's last post was 1.5 hours before the lynch deadline. GK is lurky, but certainly not inactive. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489#13 Look at GoodKarma's /in post in Newbie XXIV - posted 1.5 hours after he gets lynched. He's clearly active. Also, for me to bus GK is one thing, but for GK to agree to it is another. This is what makes this situation implausible. Regarding me "tunneling" ShadySands - This is wrong. I was heavily questioning mkfuba earlier in the night until I saw the NK. Then I switched to Shady Sands. As it stands, Shady Sands has not defended himself yet! Why would I move my suspicions off him? It's been less than a day. | ||
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I tunneled you until I thought you were town. Then I tunneled iamperfection until I thought he was town. Then Axero. Then Promethelax (who basically proved himself to be mafia... lol). Then mkfuba. And now Shady Sands, who has yet to prove himself town. | ||
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Speaking of Shady Sands, I found this post interesting... On August 12 2012 09:18 Shady Sands wrote: Please explain your logic here. How does a nightkill on Kronen have anything to do with me having less suspicion on myself than mkfuba and YourHarry? Wouldn't this make a bit more sense for a scum to do if that scum was on your confirmed townie list? Hmmm... perhaps this was the goal of the NK? | ||
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On August 12 2012 09:45 Shady Sands wrote: Please explain to me how me coming in with a random accusation on someone with a lot of towncred qualifies as scumhunting. Hint: it's not. Pressuring me this way only makes it more, not less, likely that whatever case I come up with is hasty and half-baked, and less usable as a result. Prome is still my top scum read at the moment. I'm checking through the confirmed townie posts and will get back with analysis tomorrow morning. ... well where's the analysis? | ||
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Though it's kinda bad for us - we're never going to get Shady's response to the suspicions around him. It's not like his replacement will be able to defend the actions of the predecessor. | ||
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On August 13 2012 08:13 YourHarry wrote: So I guess Promo is scum for sure. LOL. But it's too obvious. I think scums realize what is going on now, especially since Dandel Ion requested medic protection on Sideni. We should openly talk about it. Yes? Let's save it for the night. | ||
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On August 13 2012 08:37 YourHarry wrote: Medic, do not counter claim. Promo is mafia. Yep. YourHarry's got it. | ||
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On August 13 2012 08:36 Promethelax wrote: Sorry I have been less active. I honestly hate the way Hapa plays and don't have fun playing with him. ... T_T I hope you don't think so in the post game <3 | ||
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On August 13 2012 09:02 YourHarry wrote: No I am! ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/HOVl5.gif) Hahahah that gif is gold | ||
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Or something like that. | ||
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For example, ange777 was medic in Newbie XXII and breadcrumbed all her medic saves in her first post after each night. First letter of each sentence spelled out "Save XXXXX" http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315¤tpage=66#1303 | ||
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Curious to see if anyone hasn't voted yet. | ||
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T-minus 5 minutes... | ||
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Click the spoiler this time! =D + Show Spoiler + On August 13 2012 08:59 Hapahauli wrote: I am Spartacus. I am the COP! I checked Shady Sands last night. He came up RED. Why am I role-claiming now?
Why can you trust me?
##Vote Shady Sands ##Dance | ||
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TBH, I didn't Sideni was soft claiming. He clearly didn't understand how the role worked, so I thought there's no way it could constitute a claim. Plus with my red check on Shady, I pretty much knew who the scum were. | ||
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On August 14 2012 10:24 marvellosity wrote: inactivity of the scum team gg On that subject, incredibly sick activity by the town closer to lynch deadline. We would have not won the way we did if it weren't for the activity of Lvdr, Dandel Ion, iamperfection, Sideni, and Kronen. Fantastic play guys - especially Dandel Ion and Lvdr for sensing that something was wrong about the lynch candidates! | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
However, QT's should not normally be searchable in google. For example, if you search my name (site:quicktopic.com Hapahauli), my scum game from Newbie XXI won't come up. If the host makes the QT private, it is not google searchable. Or so the internet tells me anyway. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 14 2012 11:00 Shady Sands wrote: Unfortunately, I don't think I can lay down my suspicions to play with you in the future. Marv advised me to take it as a complement that my reads were so accurate that you thought I was reading the scum QT. Yet something like this pisses me off so much. I couldn't give two shits about what you think about the quality my play, but I do care when someone accuses me of cheating. In the spoiler below is a brief rant. Read at your own discretion - it is not very kind. + Show Spoiler + I put so much effort into Newbie XXIII. I have 10 pages of filter of questioning posters, getting information, and making reads. I'm proud of the effort I put into the game and how much I've improved since my first game (Newbie XX). I put so much fucking effort into improving at this game, and you want to discredit me because I played too fucking well? Guess what, your scum-team had 10 POSTS between your buddies - what the hell did you think was going to happen? That I was going to herp-derp and mislynch the entire fucking town? If you think I am a sick enough of a bastard to use all of this as a front to cheat, then fuck you. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 15 2012 01:25 YourHarry wrote: ... but I would like to learn what makes a good scum hunting. Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking? I wanted to comment on this because I feel a lot of the current town guides don't answer this question sufficiently. I'll likely do a writup on my thought-process during the game (scum-reads and whatnot), but for now, to your question (Take all of this FWIW - I've played a grand total of 3 games). Index: 1) Common Knowledge is Worthless 2) Ask the Right Questions - "uncommon knowledge" 3) Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle Common Knowledge is Worthless I feel that a lot of the "scumhunting" in newbie games is overly based on common knowledge. Due to the guides, newbies go into games thinking that all it takes to find mafia is to find a couple of common scumtells in someone's play. So on Day 1, the indecisive, inconsistent, and emotional player gets lynched on the basis of these "common" scumtells. 95% of the time, they flip town, a bunch of townies blame each other, and the cycle repeats. The problem here, is that these "common" scumtells aren't always accurate (and argubly are rarely accurate). If everyone reads the guides and knows what these tells are, how can they be used to reliably scumhunt? In fact, scum will often consciously avoid these tells and run the town around in circles. If you want a good example of this, look at Newbie XXI. My mafia teammates simply tunnel suspicion on a player or two without getting involved in the game at all. People should have been questioning them, yet on the basis of "common scumtells," they were viewed as townies until very late in the game. It's worth saying that common scumtells may not be completely useless in Newbie games - I used these tells to catch my first mafia in Newbie XX (Hopeless1der). In addition, Promethelax was showing some common scumtells in this game - fingerpointing all over the place with little reasoning. However, all these tells will go out the window when you move into real games. Ask the Right Questions So if common scumtells are useless, then how do we scumhunt? The answer is to ask the right questions - this is the list I have so far:
Is this player genuinenly trying to scum-hunt? This is the #1 thing you should ask yourself when making a read on a player. If a player is sheeping on a popular suspicion or isn't providing much analysis, you need to question them and figure out if they're scum-hunting or not. All three mafia players fell under this player category this game. All too often, these types of players (see DrWiggles and Mufaa in XXI) are let off the hook because their play is "clean." Of course this can go even deeper than this. If someone is "scum-hunting" in a different way than in a previous game, you should question their motives. If someone is tunneling a player too much even though they seem like a bad townie, you should question their motives. There is no "check-list" that you can use to answer this question. Is this player playing with information? This is a question I use to determine a bad townie froma mafia player. Think about how you think as a townie - you're always unsure of your reads, you commonly switch suspicions, and you're generally suspicious of everyone around you. This generally leads to very inconsistent play among townies who can't write or express their ideas very well. Yet these townies often end up getting lynched. When you see inconsistent play, put yourself in a player's "shoes" and try to understand how they think. For example, look at Lvdr's play in Day 0.5 - he posted a lot of one liners and sheeped suspicion on a lot of players, yet I thought he was town. Why? Because he was thinking like a townie! However, a Mafia player knows exactly who and who isn't town. Mafia can actually be very sure of themselves because they know exactly what's up. A player that takes forceful and confident opinions can very well be mafia, yet some players give this "confident and forceful" play as a strong townie read. Keep your mind open to all options and really try to figure out a player's mentality. What story is this player trying to tell? It's always important to understand the context of a player's actions rather than the actions themselves. It's easy for a player to make a case on individual inconsistent actions (Mafia do this quite often - see Promethelax and GoodKarma being obsessed with Sideni mixing up names in the thread). However, these cases are not always accurate unless you can put these actions into context. I actually defended Calgar on this basis in Newbie XXI. Even though I was mafia that game, I think my logic was pretty sound: On July 19 2012 12:18 Hapahauli wrote: Here are my thoughts on the Calgar case: tl;dr - I think Calgar is very townie. When looking for suspicious posts, its important to take the entire context of a person's play rather than individual posts. For example, I can dig through Jingle's filter and build a case on him for "suspicious and inconsistent play," yet Jingle is one of my very strong townie reads. Why? Because his play in full context shows a reckless player who tries to generate discussion - he's bound to have inconsistent/suspicious play based on his posting style alone. In the case against Calgar, I'm seeing all his inconsistent posts brought to light while ignoring the context of his play and any pro-townie evidence in his favor. So here's a question; has Calgar's play hurt or helped us this game? I'd say he helped us quite a bit. He generated a lot of discussion and got a lot of lurkers to talk. In Jingle's case, this is interpreted as him bandwagonning suspicion on several players before casting a vote on iamperfection. Calgar's fingerpointing play appears townie in full context. Another point Jingle makes is his "me-too" bandwagonning on my suspicions/ideas. Again, in full context, this isn't suspicious. I assume that Calgar thinks his strongest townie reads are Jingle and I, and he's been actively trying to make peace with (and between) us. Just take a look at this post: What part of this even makes sense from a mafia perspective? Why the hell would he attempt to break up a fight between us? Other than his last post to Jingle, he's been very active in trying to get on good terms with his top townie reads and stopped us from our distracting fight. This is 100% pure-colombian townie. As a final point, while I see "inconsistency" in Calgar's play, I don't see any any attemps to lie, mislead, or deflect. Inconsistency is indicative of reckless townie play - misleading play is very very mafia oriented. I don't see any indication of the latter at all. So before the town goes and bandwagons Calgar, ask yourself; is he really the most suspicious player here? Does he have any mafia-motive? In my opinion, no and no. Find a Way to Answer These Questions Using Your Playstyle The last step is playstyle - you need to find the best way for YOU to get the information needed to answer these questions. In my case, I like aggressively questioning players and ripping the answers out of them. Others like sitting back and "observing" the thread before chiming in with their reads. Many take a balance between the two styles. There are advantages and disadvantages to different methods, but what's important is that you find a style that works for you. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You played a solid game! I'd be a bit more open/opinionated with your reads in the future, but that's a largely stylistic choice. I found the giant "timeline" posts you made very very helpful in making my last few reads =) On August 14 2012 16:51 Kronen wrote: Sooooo re-game :D? Feel free to sign up for on eof the other games - Newbie XXIV is full, but I imagine someone is going to start up XXV pretty soon. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On August 15 2012 01:25 YourHarry wrote: ... Either way, could you guys analyze this game? I agree that Hapa definitely puts in a lot of effort, but I would like to learn what makes a good scum hunting. Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking? How was town's analysis after GK's flipping scum? Is it safe to say that scum should bus in that situation? Scum Hapa or Lvdr busing GK hard, just because they were the first ones to start the lynch on GK, gave them almost confirmed town status? How can town deal with such scum actions, especially if detective does not exist or has been killed? Was Shady scummy? Obviously Hapa had investigated him, so he knew. But how should other players have known that he is scummy. To me, it was simply sort of by choice of elimination, which again could be dangerous because scums could bus to kill their scum partner, Godfather or not. Godfather is better than a lowly goon only if there is a detective, and only if detective happens to investigate him, BTW. To me, Shady's opposing the sudden shift in votes (without much reason beside lurking) that seemed to secure the GK lynch looked town to me. Should I have analyzed this in another way? I still don't understand what Sideni was trying to do. Anyone care to explain? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=58#1160 This is a follow up to the above link that deals more with in-game reads and whatnot: Regardless of the result, was GK good lynch simply because he was lurking? Obviously I like the lynch in hindsight, but I still wouldn't mind the lynch even if GK flipped town. Firstly, it wasn't a policy lynch - GK really didn't contribute much to the town at that point. I had mentioned that he was tunneling suspicion on two players with existing suspicion, and that sort of stuff doesn't help town. As for why I picked GK in particular... there weren't many other options. I had picked out Axero GK and Promethelax as my top lynch targets toward the end of the day. They were the only players who I didn't have some sort of town read on. What GK's day 1 death comes down to was an inactive mafia - mafia got lazy and didn't establish themselves as town. Mafia let the townies establish too many town-reads on other players, and by process of elimination, GK got lynched Day 1. TBH, I really like lynch-lurker policies - It's a situation where at worst, you lynch a townie that's not contributing too much, and at best, you lynch the godfather. In newbie games, I think you can pick off less-active mafia on day 1 with this play very often. Is it safe to say that scum should bus in that situation? Scum Hapa or Lvdr busing GK hard, just because they were the first ones to start the lynch on GK, gave them almost confirmed town status? I think a case could have been made for a mafia member to place a vote on GK, but even then, that's really tough given how sudden the lynch came about. That's why I eliminated bussing as a possibility pretty early on. However, I don't think mafia should ever bus seriously in that situation. For example, if GK came flying into the thread incredibly pissed and emotional that he was getting lynched, there's NO WAY that the lynch would fly. How can town deal with such scum actions, especially if detective does not exist or has been killed? That's what analysis is for See my post at the end of page 58: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=58#1160 Was Shady scummy? Obviously Hapa had investigated him, so he knew. But how should other players have known that he is scummy. To me, it was simply sort of by choice of elimination, which again could be dangerous because scums could bus to kill their scum partner, Godfather or not. Godfather is better than a lowly goon only if there is a detective, and only if detective happens to investigate him, BTW. To me, Shady's opposing the sudden shift in votes (without much reason beside lurking) that seemed to secure the GK lynch looked town to me. Should I have analyzed this in another way? Regarding my check on Shady - mkfuba was my original DT check choice, and I changed my mind later in the day. I checked Shady primarily because of my post here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=46#909 I thought Promethelax name-dropping Shady was strange, and I couldn't get the possibility that Shady was mafia out of my mind despite my earlier town read on him. What it ultimately came down to was that I thought that I could get mkfuba lynched regardless of my DT check on him. Therefore, I checked Shady... and well we know what happened. In hindsight, Shady doing very little on Day 1, as well as Shady's play near the lynch deadline should have alerted me more than it did initially. I think your reads on Shady were fine and within reason - it's hard to get something like that right with only one day of information. I was pretty much on the same boat as you until I DT checked him. That's something you keep on the back of your mind and try to make sense of it with more information later in the game. | ||
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